Global Technology Outlook 2004 - SoberIT-Software · PDF fileGlobal Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute Global ... Hardware Technology and Systems ... “I think there is a world

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© 2002 IBM Corporation

IBM Research

Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute

Global Technology Outlook 2004

IBM Research

Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 2

Overview

Hardware Technology and Systems

Stochastic Analysis and OptimizationThe Emergence of People ProxiesPervasive ConnectivityLegislation and DataThe Architecture of Business

IBM Research


Global Technology Outlook“I think there is a world marketfor maybe five computers.”

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ”

Popular Mechanics, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ”

Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977

“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ”

Bill Gates, 1981

“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”

Yogi Berra

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Hardware Technology and Systems

IBM Research


Base Technology OverviewFaster, Cheaper, Better !

Doubles every 12 month

Doubles ever 12 month (fiber), but access to home much less

CPUStorage

BandwidthDisplay

New Technologies

wired

wirelessOLED

NanoQuantum

fiber Broadband

Gadgets

Super-computing

Memory

Doubles ever 12 month

Doubles ever 18 month

More gadgets than PCs

250 Pixels per inch

IBM Research


Base Technology ImplicationsFaster, Cheaper, Better !

Already cheaper than storage on paper

High bandwidth access to consumers

homes and branches have the same bandwidth

CPUStorage

BandwidthDisplay

New Technologies

wired

wirelessOLED

NanoQuantum

fiber Broadband

Gadgets

Super-computing

Memory

Portable memory:1000 movies in my pocket

rent blockbuster (not a movie)

Approaching human capacity in 2015

Computing built into the social fabric

Pixels disappear even for those under 30

IBM Research


jvk1

$1000 Buys

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201E-6

1E-3

1E+0

1E+3

1E+6

1E+9

1E+12MechanicalElectro-mechanical

Vacuum tubeDiscrete transistor

Integrated circuit

Year

1,000,000,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,000,000

1,000

1

0.001

0.000001

Com

puta

tions

/ se

c

after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998

IBM Research


Supercomputing Roadmap

1995 2000 2005 2010 20151

10

100

1000

10000

100000

TeraFlops

Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBMBrain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Ace of Spiritual MachinesMoravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

IBM BlueGene/L®*

Chip(2 processors)

Compute Card(2 chips, 2x1x1)

Node Board(32 chips, 4x4x2)

16 Compute Cards

System(64 cabinets, 64x32x32)

Cabinet(32 Node boards, 8x8x16)

2.8/5.6 GF/s4 MB

5.6/11.2 GF/s0.5 GB DDR

90/180 GF/s8 GB DDR

2.9/5.7 TF/s256 GB DDR

180/360 TF/s16 TB DDR

IBM Deep Blue®*

US Dept. Of Energy ASCI

IBM BlueGene/P

IBM Research


Active vs. Passive Power

0.010.110.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Gate Length (microns)

Active Power

Passive Power

1994 2004

Pow

er D

ensi

ty (W

/cm

2 )

Power components:Active power

• Gate leakage• Sub-threshold

leakage (source-drain leakage)

Passive power

10S Tox=11AGate Stack

Gate dielectric approaching a fundamental limit (a few atomic layers)

IBM Research


Apple G5 Heat Sink for IBM’s POWER Technology Air cooling is being pushed to its limitsBox design dictated by heat sink size Two heat sinks per desktop; one for the main board and another for the processor

Heat fins

Pipe brazed to fins

Cu heat pipe brazed to block

Cu heat sink

Forced air from fan

IBM Research


Lithography Roadmap

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

130

90

65

45

180Technology Generation

(nm)

2-Years / Generation

3-Years / Generation250

350

Year of Production

The lithography roadmap will slow from the accelerated pace of recent years, with an uncertain future

Options:193 nm immersion

45 nm nodeTechnical, tooling and contamination challenges

157 nm 45 & 32 nm nodesMany challenges --new tooling, resists, etc.

13 nm Extreme UV (EUV)

32 nm node & beyondTool availability uncertain

Source: International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

IBM Research


Future CMOS Roadmap: Less Predictive

CMOS device performance will continue to improve rapidly, but in new waysThe concept of a scaled technology as we know it will cease to existInnovation will continue to drive performance improvements, but timing will be harder to predict

19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020

Manufacturing Ramp StartManufacturing Ramp Start

NormalizedSemiconductor

Device Performance

Outlook

11

1010

100100

2000

2002

1995

2004

Molecular Scale Devices

High mobilityNew device structuresNew materials innovations

IBM Research


SiGe Moving into III-V Semiconductor Market

SiGe’s high performance and mature design tools can be tailored to millimeter wave design to capture III-V dominated applications

Emerging high volume markets

As silicon speeds increase, applications previously requiring III-V semiconductors become feasible

App

licat

ion

com

plex

ity (e

.g.,

Inte

grat

ion)

Frequency (GHz)20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 11010

Highest integration,Low voltage

Medium integration, higher speed

Highest speed, higher voltage,Low integration

SiGeBiPolar

CMOS

GaAsInP III-Vs

77 GHz DistronicAutomobile RADAR

$1,100/sensor

1-10 Gbps today40 Gbps published

10-40 Gbps SiGe Transceiver100 Gbps Published

New SiMarketSpace

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/StorageSystems/autonomic_storage/CIB/index.shtml

IBM Research


Autonomic Storage - Collective Intelligent Bricks

1 Petabyte Conventional vs CIBusing 300-GB, 3.5" drives in both solutions(6 3.5" drives per brick)

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/StorageSystems/autonomic_storage/CIB/index.shtml

?i

Prototype Measurements3x3x3 bricks 8" edge length per brick324 drives 12, 2.5" 80GB drives per brick26TB(raw capacity)

Could store all the 18 million books of the Library of Congress (2002)

Conventional Collective Intelligent Bricks24 racks in 400sq ft

10x10x7 in 40 sq ft(1/10 of conventional floor space)

133kW Total Power

110 kW Total Power(20% less)

79-85 dB Noise 63-69 dB Noise(conversational voice ~ 70 dB)

Air-cooled Water-cooled

Almaden prototype

IBM Research


System Performance Stack Performance improvements will increasingly require system level optimization

Application

S/W Development Tools

Middleware

Operating System Hypervisor

SemiconductorsDevice, process, interconnect

PackageI/Os, wiring level cooling, …

Microprocessor Core

Microacrchitecture, logic circuits, design methodology

CacheCache levels,

granularity, latency, throughput

Interconnect

I/O

Compilers

SMP System StructureFabric, switches, busses, memory system, protocols, …

15%-20% CAGR,reducing

70%-80% CAGR,continuing

Uniprocessor approx.50% CAGR,reducing

Virtualization,cluster management,etc., increasing

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IBM Research


Stochastic Analysis and Optimization

IBM Research


Stochastic Analysis and Optimization

Data Availabilityand Acquisition

StochasticMethods

ComputationalAdvances

Complex system runtime characterization

Business process monitoring

Fabrication-line data

Data generated by computer experiments

Modeling and optimization methods

Exponential increases in processing power

ability to solve a broad range of business and technical problems

Resulting in:The ability to cope with underlying variability in a wide variety of design, analysis, and decision-making applications

Large reductions in runtimeMuch higher accuracyThe ability to address new problems

Stochastic analysis and optimization will dramatically improve our

Economic and environmental indicators

IBM Research


Example -- Driving to an Important Appointment

a b

c

e

f

d

10 (5)

15 (1)

15 (2)

20 (12) 10 (6)

25 (2)

Client

Goal: 95% probability

Airport

of arriving on time• a-b-d: 35 min. average• c-d: 30 min. average (map program result)• e-f: 40 min. average

Time Avail.

Routea-b-d ?

Routec-d ?

Routee-f ?

55 99% 97% 99.9%

Average timeVariation in time

IBM Research


Applications of SAO

Known (internal) UncertaintyTraditional Chip Design

Computer Architecture

Software Integration

Revenue Forecasting

Analytics for WBIStorage System Monitor

Pricing

Call Center Management

Asset Liability

Resource Allocation

Software Engineering

Static Web Hosting

Chip Yield Optimization

Business Processes

Simulation Design

Exog

enou

s (e

xter

nal)

Unc

erta

inty Clinical Trials

BCRS

Electrical Power Scheduling

Workforce Management

Statistical Chip Design

IBM Research


Example -- Electric Power Scheduling and TradingStochastic optimization methods to schedule generating units

New York

MaineMichigan

KentuckyVirginia

Iowa

Wisconsin

Illinois

Missouri

Oklahoma ArkansasTennessee

Spectrum of problems from low-level scheduling to high-level planning and power trading

IBM Research


Power Scheduling Analysis CapabilitiesDeregulation led to the need for new optimization methods

1977 1988 1991 1996 1998 2000Year

1000

Integer Variables per Minute of Execution Time

Stochastic

10

100

Varia

bles

per

Min

ute

Deterministic

1

IBM Research


Example -- Business Continuity and Recovery

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IBM Research


The Emergence of People Proxies

IBM Research


The Evolution of Organizational Productivity

A new wave of enterprise productivity will emerge in which we optimize business processes using information about people

19701960

Prod

uctiv

ity

1980 1990 2000 2010

TransactionsTransactions

2020

e-Businesse-Business

People & ProcessIntegration

People & ProcessIntegration

Business Process Integration

Business Process Integration

IBM Research


1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Time

Ric

hnes

s/Sc

ope

of a

Per

son'

s A

ttrib

utes

UID Finger/Whois

LDAP

Work Flow ApplicationsPersonalization (Lexus Nexus)

Person Tag (Lotus Workspace)

Liberty

Passport

Pointcast

PeopleProxies

Web Services Federation

A History of Human Attribute Representation in Systems

AOL IMCRM

IBM Research


The Evolution of Integration of Information About People

1970’s 1985 2000

Sequential

Concurrent

Visually Coordinated

IBM Research


The Emergence of People Proxies

Richness/ScopeRichness/Scope

UID UNIX Finger/Whois

LDAP

Work FlowPersonalization

On Demand Workplace

LibertyPassport

Pointcast

PeopleProxies

WS-Federation

0

1.5

3

4.5

6

7.5

9

10.5

12

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Time

Ric

hnes

s of

a P

erso

n's

Attr

ibut

es

FederationFederation

Unstructured

Structured

Single View of Access

IntegrationIntegration

1970’s 1985 2000

Mainframe Application

Windows Applications

Portal

IBM Research


Where Are Your Digital Attributes Today?Human Resources

Demographic Information Employment HistoryHealth Care Benefits/EnrollmentDental PlanAssessment HistoryAward HistorySalary HistoryPension AccountPersonal Business Commitments

Databases (team rooms)GroupsAccess Control Lists

CommunicationsE-mailInstant MessagingCellphone PhonebookPager

Miscellaneous ApplicationsLibraryPublication SystemPatent Tracking System

DesktopApplication PreferencesCookiesEmployee Portal Preferences

DirectoryBlue Pages (Persona)Blue People (Persona)Callup

Login ID’sWindowsVMIntranetEtc.

Security (site)Professional InterestsProject DescriptionsDepartmental Systems (MANY)Development Systems (MANY)Access Control Lists (MANY)

FinancialHCRA Account401KStock Purchase PlanStock OptionsLife InsuranceTravel Expense AccountsMiscellaneous Expense AccountsPosition HistoryTuition Reimbursement

Skills/Knowledge/TrainingTechnical SkillsBusiness SkillsPersonal SkillsEducation HistoryCareer GoalsManagement DevelopmentExecutive DevelopmentMentoring

IBM Research


I6

Enhanced W3 On Demand Workplace: On-the-Glass Integration

IBM Research


EnterpriseDatabases

Finance

Teamrooms

DevelopmentSystems

Skills

Human ResourcesCommunica-

tions

People Proxies Will Provide Federated Virtual Identity and Attribute Management

IBM Research


Stochastic Workforce Optimization

Automotive

Fi

Life Sciences

Telecommunications

nancial

Programming Workforce

External Hires, Outsourcing, Acquisitions

Departing (Resign, Retire, Layoffs)

IT ArchitectsIT Architects

Senior C++ ProgrammersSenior C++

ProgrammersSenior Java

ProgrammersSenior Java

Programmers

Entry Java Programmers

Entry Java Programmers

Entry C++ Programmers

Entry C++ Programmers

ServicesEngagement

ServicesEngagement

PipelinePipeline

Government

People Proxies

Skill types, levelsLocationDomain expertiseCurrent engagements

New stochastic methods to optimize workforce

Meet contractual obligations at minimum costOptimize bidding given current workforceAdjust workforce skills

profile over time

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Pervasive Connectivity

IBM Research


Affordable Applications Expand

1

MIP

S*

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1 10 100 1,000MPU Price (US $)

20042009*

Wireless sensor

RF tag

Real-time speech recognition

Real-time Natural Language Understanding w/100M axioms

Real-time handwriting reco

Real-time videoscene detection

PDATV*

* Hypothetical examples,not predictions

IBM Research


So

The Pervasive Internet --- Medical Example

urce: Harbor Research 2003

MEDICALHospital

– Wireless Monitoring– ER (Equipment Tracking)– Mobile Point-of-Care

Doctor Office/Care Facility– Communication– Lab Facilities

Home– Point-of-Care monitoring

In Vivo Diagnostics– Implants– Smart Pills

Devices: Diagnostic Devices, PDAs, ImplanEquipment, Pumps, Monitors, etc.

ts, Surgical

IndustrialIndustrial RetailRetailConsumerConsumerBuildingsBuildings

The Pervasive InternetThe Pervasive Internet

Transpor-tation

Transpor-tation

Government/Security

Government/SecurityPowerPowerMedicalMedical

IBM Research


Wireless Sensors and RFID Tags

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Market Forecast (M$)

RFID Wireless sensors

Breakdown of RFID Market

Source: RFID from Venture Development Corp, Wireless sensor data from Frost & Sullivan

Wireless sensors and RFIDs growing rapidly, fueled by industry initiatives and government mandates

835.3

294.3264.9

1051.9

355.9316.8

1270.7

436.7

382.7

1513.4

525.5

463.4

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2002 2003 2004 2005

Transponders Readers Software Services

Venture Development Corp., 2000-06

IBM Research


Advanced Radio Technologies

Near Future

Far FutureSystem-on-Chip

MEMS BBDSP

AFE

Multi- or SingleStandard Radio(MSR or SSR)

Advanced Radio Technologies

Tomorrow

Source: IBM modified after Intel Source: IBM

MSR: Data Concentrator SSR-MSR: Control PointSSR: Sensor or Actuator

Link to Network Infrastructure

Meshed Sensor, RFID and Control Networks

Wireless capability will be incorporated into devices, appliances, sensors, etc. as “standard equipment”

Multi-standard radios (MSR) supporting all types of wireless computing platforms will enable anytime, anywhere connectionsLow power single-standard radios (SSR) will enable sensor networks

Emerging radio technologies will penetrate non-PC devices and accelerate pervasive connectivity

IBM Research


Personal Mobile Health Hub

Peekflow

InhalationRegistration

Body WeightActivity

Heart Rate

Blood Pressure

Glucose ECG MonitorTablet Dispensing

AuscultationInjection Registration

IBM Research


1 Billion Users, 1 Trillion Devices

Weather forecasting 1960s – weather shipsWeather forecasting 2000 – satellites, Doppler radar, balloon sondes, a myriad sensorsPlus:

• Super-computers• Validated thermodynamic models

Result: 7 day weather forecastsConsequences: Construction, farming, sports events . . .

Underwriting 2000 – static tables, historical dataUnderwriting 2005 – rule-based, real-time assessment, update from a myriad sensorsPlus:

• Super-computers Desktop computers• New statistics • Automated rule-discovery

E.g. Underwriting Profitability Analysis produced $2M/year benefit in 1US state from only 6 rulesResult: Better classification of risk groups, real-time assignment of risk to groupConsequences: More accurate premiums…

…a billion people and a trilliondevices – all interconnected.

IBM Research


Security and Privacy

Increased bandwidth and richer applications (e.g., VoIP) will lead to complexity, amplifying the vulnerability of the network

Location-based services are often viewed as privacy-invading technologies

New security and privacy policies will be required

Establishment of “trusted” devices, servers and gateways will be required to accommodate dynamic network infrastructure and roaming

Pervasive connectivity will increase security and privacy concerns, requiring new software and hardware solutions

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IBM Research


Global Technology Outlook 2004

IBM Research

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Global Technology Outlook 2004 - SoberIT-Software · PDF fileGlobal Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute Global ... Hardware Technology and Systems ... “I think there is a world