Upload
others
View
9
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Global Tissue Outlook
Global tissue business continues to expand but
demand growth cannot absorb new capacity,
Europe in moderate growth phase
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
European Conference 2020
Lisbon, Portugal
March 2020
Esko Uutela
Principal, Tissue
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 2
1. Recent global trends
2. North American outlook
3. Latin American outlook
4. Western and Eastern European outlook
5. Asian outlook
6. Global outlook
7. Concluding remarks
Recent global trends
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 3
World tissue consumption by region, 2018
MARKET IS DYNAMIC BUT
GROWTH SLOWING RECENTLY
• China has passed Western
Europe in market size, while Asia
Far East and Eastern Europe are
now larger than Japan.
• China has been the largest
producer country since 2015.
N. America 24.5%
China22.4%
W. Europe17.6%
L. America11.0%
Asia Far East6.2%
E. Europe5.6%
Japan5.1%
N&M East4.1%
Africa2.3%
Oceania1.2%
Global consumption: 38.7 million tonnes (2018)
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 4
Growth in the global tissue market
• Relatively stable growth
until the Great
Recession in 2009
• Recent years have been
strong
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Re
lative
gro
wth
, p
erc
en
t p
er
ye
ar
Thousand tonnes
Volume growth Relative growth
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 5
Tissue market growth by region, 2017 and 2018
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
NA WE EE LA NME JPN CHI AFE OCE AFR
Growth rate, % from previous year
2017 2018
• The main change in 2018 was
that growth in China was only
half of that recorded in 2017,
Japan contracted and Western
European growth slowed
further. Meanwhile, Eastern
Europe, Asia Far East and
Africa showed more positive
developments.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 6
Volume growth of tissue consumption, 2008-2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Thousand t
onnes
Total global growth: 10.8 million tonnes (1.08 million tonnes per year)
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 7
• China accounted for
43% of growth
• North America and Latin
America share second
place
North American outlook
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 8
The North American tissue market has been strong recently
• The AfH sector in particular
benefitted from the strong
economy and low gasoline
prices in 2015-2016.
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Gro
wth
rate
, perc
ent per
year
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 9
Average growth accelerated from 1.5% to 1.85% per year
North American tissue consumption per capita, 2006-2018
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
AROUND 26 KG
• Canada lags about 3.5 kg
behind US figure
• Strong AfH consumption the
main reason for the US
having the highest per capita
tissue consumption globally
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Kg
pe
r ca
pita
Canada US
10
Trade wars changing supply patterns
• The trade war between China and the US escalated in September 2018
when the US announced a 10% tariff on US$200 billion worth of
Chinese imports, including all the main categories of tissue with the
exception of 48.18.90. This is a major issue as China is the second-
largest import source of tissue after Canada. In 2018, tissue imports
from China were about 330,000 tonnes, which corresponds to the
capacity of five large tissue machines. The 10% tariff has been partly
offset by the weakening of the Chinese exchange rate.
• However, recently the tariffs on China were raised to 25% and may
remain at this level if no new agreement in the trade war can be
reached. This would certainly cut tissue imports from China, and
alternative sources cannot fully replace the whole quantity. Chinese
tissue with a 25% tariff is not competitive in the US market.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 11
US tissue import growth, 2009-2019
• Canada continues to be the main US import
source for tissue, but China has taken
second place ahead of Mexico and
Indonesia.
• However, tariffs have restricted imports from
China; in 2019 total imports declined by
more than 24,000 tonnes and imports from
China fell by about 32,000 tonnes.
• Imports from Canada and Mexico decreased
as well, while imports from Indonesia grew
by 32,000 tonnes, replacing the lost tonnage
from China, and imports from alternative
sources, such as Turkey and Vietnam,
increased substantially.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Import
s, th
ousand t
onnes
Average growth rate, 2009-2019: 4.6% per year
Canada China Mexico Indonesia
Italy Turkey Vietnam All others
122020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
US tissue imports from China by main category, 2010-2019
• The main categories have
suffered from the tariff, parent roll
imports from China have almost
disappeared and bathroom tissue
imports have declined
substantially.
• However, imports in the "other
tissue" category have grown
strongly and now account for 58%
of all tissue deliveries from China
to the US as there is no duty on
that customs code.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousand t
onnes
Parent rolls Bathroom tissue Facial/hankies
Towels Napkins Other tissue
132020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Expected growth in US tissue consumption by business sector
• At-Home retailer labels will
show the strongest growth,
while At-Home branded volume
growth will remain moderate.
• AfH growth will rise above
average At-Home growth.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
AH brands Retailer labels AfH
Mill
ion t
onnes
Market volume
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Growth of 3.6% per year
Growth of 2.4% per year
14
Minor growth of 0.2% per year
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Major tissue capacity changes in North America, 2019-2022
2019• Soundview Paper, Elmwood Park, NJ, USA (closure after two fires) -110,000 t/a
• Clearwater Paper, Shelby, NC, USA (NTT PM) 64,000 t/a
• Irving Consumer Products, Macon, GA, USA (TAD PM) 75,000 t/a
• Cascades Tissue Group, Scarborough and Whitby, ON, Canada (mill closures) -61,000 t/a
• Soundview Paper, Elmwood Park, NJ, USA (restart of PM11) 60,000 t/a
• Georgia-Pacific Corp., Crossett, AR, USA (closure of the oldest PM) -30,000 t/a
-2,000 t/a
2020• Soundview Paper, Elmwood Park, NJ, USA (restart of PM10) 49,000 t/a
• Sofidel America, Inola, OK, USA 60,000 t/a
• Georgia-Pacific Corp., Palatka, FL, USA (TAD PM) 72,000 t/a
• First Quality Tissue, Lock Haven, PA, USA 64,000 t/a
• Kimberly-Clark, Mobile, Alabama (PM7 replacement, NTT PM?) 18,000 t/a
• Sofidel America, Inola, OK, USA 60,000 t/a
• Georgia-Pacific, Naheola, AL, USA (replacement of PM3 and PM4 with a new PM) 8,000 t/a
331,000 t/a
2021-2022• Kruger Tissue, Brompton, Sherbrook, QC, Canada (TAD PM) 70,000 t/a
• Irving Consumer Products, Macon, GA, USA (TAD PM) 75,000 t/a
145,000 t/a
152020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Net capacity change* and tissue operating rate in North America
• The outlook is surprisingly
good despite the number of
projects, but a lot depends on
how much tariffs on imports
from China change the net
trade balance.
• We assume a conservative
decline in net imports in this
forecast (trend change).
80
85
90
95
100
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
2011
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
2017
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
2023
Capacity u
tiliz
ation,
perc
ent
Thousand t
onnes
Capacity change Capacity utilization
16
A lot of new capacity coming on stream that will affect 2020-2022; utilization
rate will head south but only slightly if no further closures occur
*Based on committed projects only.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Latin American outlook
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 17
Main Latin American tissue markets, 2018
• The five largest markets
accounted for 78% of total
consumption in 2018
Brazil31%
Mexico28%
Argentina8%
Chile5%
Colombia5%
Peru5%
Venezuela3%
Guatemala2%
Ecuador2%
Costa Rica2%
All others9%
Total market size: 4.3 million tonnes
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 18
Latin American tissue market shows varying annual growth, change to a more positive trend expected
• Economic turbulence and
political instability caused
problems and disappointing
growth in 2014-2016, mainly
due to the Brazilian recession.
• According to our preliminary
information, 2017 was more
positive but weakness returned
in 2018.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Gro
wth
ra
te, p
erc
en
t p
er
ye
ar
19
Average growth 4.4%/a
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Net capacity change* and tissue capacity utilization in Latin America
• Project delays and stronger
demand could help a lot,
but the current outlook
suggests only gradual
improvement.
• And more projects are likely
to emerge for 2021-2023
and prevent capacity
utilization from improving as
much as expected based
on committed projects only.60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
2013
2014
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
Capacity u
tiliz
ation,
perc
ent
Thousand t
onnes
Capacity change Capacity utilization
20
* Based on committed projects only.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Western and Eastern European outlook
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 21
European tissue consumption, 2003-2018
• Total European tissue
consumption was nearly 9.0
million tonnes in 2018, of which
about three-quarters was in
Western Europe and one-quarter
was in Eastern Europe.
• Growth in Eastern Europe has
increased and the region has
doubled its share of total
European tissue consumption.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mill
ion
tonnes
W. Europe E. Europe
22
European growth rates of tissue consumption, 2003-2018
Western European tissue market
growth was badly affected by the
2009 Great Recession and recovery
took long time, especially in
Southern Europe. In Eastern
Europe, Russia recorded very
strong growth before the political
turmoil with Ukraine that resulted in
sanctions by Western trade partners
and restricted economic growth.
However, in the past couple of years
growth in Russian tissue
consumption has been recovering.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003-2008 2008-2013 2013-2018
Avera
ge g
row
th p
er
year,
perc
ent
W. Europe E. Europe
Political tension
has cut Eastern
European growth
23
Development of European tissue consumption per capita, 2006-2018
• Western European average tissue
consumption is now 16.0 kg per
capita, but since 2006 it has not
grown more than 1.2 kg, which
signals that the market is
maturing.
• In Eastern Europe, per capita
consumption averages 6.7 kg,
indicating that there is still major
growth potential, particularly in
large countries such as Russia,
Ukraine and Romania.
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Kg p
er
capita
W. Europe E. Europe
24
Per capita consumption of tissue in Western Europe, 2018
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Kilo
gra
ms p
er
capita
• Sweden leads the ranking of
per capita consumption of
tissue with 19.4 kg, but
Austria and Belgium follow
only slightly behind. Southern
European countries, with the
exception of Malta, consume
less than 15 kg per capita and
are at the end of the list.
25
Average share of retailer labels in Western European consumer tissue, 2010-2018
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Perc
ent
of to
tal
Volume share Value share
• On average, retailer labels
account for about 66% of total
consumer tissue volume in
Western Europe.
• The volume share of retailer
labels has grown by an average
of 0.3 percentage points per year
since 2010.
• The gap between volume share
and value share has declined
somewhat, indicating that prices
of retailer labels are now closer
to prices of company brands than
in the past.
26
Average retailer label volume shares in Western Europe by country, 2018
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Perc
ent
of to
tal volu
me
• Germany has the highest volume share of
retailer labels with 85%, but Spain and
Greece also have shares of above 80%.
• Finland and Italy have the lowest shares,
which reflects strong tissue supplier
positions with their brands and also
characteristics of retailing, although they
are very different
• Italy is rather fragmented, which favors
company brands
• Finland is very concentrated with few
players who do not need to differentiate with
the help of strong private label programs. Note: Data were not available for Denmark for 2018.
27
Growth Rate of Western European Tissue Consumption, 2016-2022
• We expect relatively slow
growth to continue for this and
the next few years, with some
annual variation which has not
been closely correlating with
economic growth recently.
• High pulp prices have obliged
companies to optimize their
raw material use, and volumes
have probably suffered from
lightweighting – no statistics
for this exist. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Avera
ge a
nnual perc
enta
ge g
row
th
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 28
Forecast
Capacity shares of the main Western European tissue suppliers, mid-2019
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Essity27.8%
Sofidel Group12.4%
WEPA Group9.7%
K-C7.8%
Metsä Tissue6.2%
ICT5.0%
Lucart Group4.0%
Cartiere Carrara2.7%
The Navigator Company
1.7%
Renova1.5%
All others21.2%
Total tissue capacity: 7.4 million tonnes (mid-2019)
• Essity is the by far largest tissue
supplier in Western Europe due to
its acquisitions of P&G’s and GP’s
tissue assets in the past.
• Despite some closures as part of its
rationalization program, it has more
than doubled the share of the
second largest company, Sofidel.
• The three largest account for about
half of total capacity, the top five for
64% and the top ten for 79%.
29
Major capacity changes (>10,000 t/a) in the Western European tissue industry, 2018-2021
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
2018
• Cartiera d Pietramelara (Paperdi), Pietramelara, Italy 30,000 t/a
• Lucart Tissue & Soaps, Aranguren, Bilbao, Spain (restart) 50,000 t/a
• Essity, Skelmersdale, UK (TAD PM rebuild and restart) 28,000 t/a
• Goma-Camps, Ejeo de Caballeros, Spain 34,000 t/a
• Essity, Allo and La Riba, Spain -76,000 t/a
• The Navigator Company, Cacia, Aveiro, Portugal 70,000 t/a
• Sofidel Spain, Bunuel, Spain 70,000 t/a
• ICT Iberica, El Burgo del Ebro, Zaragoza, Spain 70,000 t/a
• Lucart, Porcari, Italy (New tissue PM/ replacement) 20,000 t/a
316,000 t/a
2019
• Klippans Bruk, Klippan, Sweden 30,000 t/a
• Kartogroup Espana (Cominter Group), Castellón, Valencia 22,000 t/a
• Cartiera della Basilica (Eurovast), Botticino, Italy 10,000 t/a
52,000 t/a
2020-2021
• Fourstones Group, Sapphire, Leslie, Scotland, UK 28,000 t/a
• Global Hygiène, Charavines, France 30,000 t/a
• Cartiera Confalone, Montoro, Avellino, Italy 22,000 t/a
• Cartiera di Ferrania (Carrara Group), Cairo Montenotte, Savona, Italy 40,000 t/a
• Confidential 65,000 t/a
185,000 t/a
30
Net capacity change* and tissue capacity utilization in Western Europe until 2022
• Capacity closures have
helped the industry, but new
projects thereafter cut the
trend.
• Low demand growth lowered
capacity utilization in 2018-
2019, and new projects in
2019-2021 will keep the
outlook moderate in the next
couple of years.
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
-50
0
50
100
150
200
200
6
200
7
2008
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
2017
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
Capacity u
tiliz
ation,
perc
ent
Thousand
tonnes
Capacity change Capacity utilization
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 31
* Based on committed projects only.
Per capita consumption of tissue in Eastern Europe, 2018
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
• Slovenia is top in the ranking of
per capita consumption of tissue
in Eastern Europe with 17.1 kg,
which above the Western
European average, followed by
Poland, Hungary, Croatia and the
Czech Republic. Russia is rather
far from the top with 4.3 kg, and
Moldova is at the bottom of the
ranking with only about 1.5 kg
tissue consumption per person.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Kilo
gra
ms p
er
capita
32
Growth rate of Eastern European tissue consumption, 2016-2022
• The demand outlook for tissue
market growth is rather
optimistic for the next few
years, but we expect slowing
growth in the most advanced
countries, including the
second-largest market,
Poland.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l p
erc
en
tag
e g
row
th
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 33
Forecast
Major capacity changes (>5,000 t/a) in the Eastern European tissue industry, 2018-2022
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
2018
• Velvet Care, Klucze, Poland 70,000 t/a
• Vajda Papir, Dunaföldvar, Hungary 32,000 t/a
• Drenik ND, Belgrade, Serbia 30,000 t/a
• Hayat Kimya Group, Alabuga, Tatarstan, Russia 70,000 t/a
202,000 t/a
2019
• Metsä Tissue, Krapkowice, Poland -25,000 t/a
• Filar, Sadlno, Poland 25,000 t/a
• Arkhbum Tissue Group, Vorsino, Kaluga, Russia 70,000 t/a
70,000 t/a
2020
• Rollpap, Opatovice nad Labem, Czech Republic 7,000 t/a
• MG Tec Industry, Dej, Cluj, Romania 30,000 t/a
37,000 t/a
2021-2022
• Drenik Hungary, Szolnok, Hungary 30,000 t/a
• MG Tec Industry, Dej, Cluj, Romania 30,000 t/a
60,000 t/a34
Net capacity change* and tissue capacity utilization in Eastern Europe until 2022
• New investments from late
2014 onward and slower
demand growth caused
capacity utilization to decline.
• Minor improvement with
recovery in 2016-2017, but
new expansions pushing
capacity utilization down again
in 2018-2019.
• Small improvement thereafter,
but new projects are likely to
emerge, making the outlook
more negative.
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
6
2007
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
2016
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
Capacity u
tiliz
ation,
perc
ent
Thousand t
onnes
Capacity change Capacity utilization
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
* Based on committed projects only.
35
Asian outlook
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 36
Recent growth rates of Chinese tissue consumption
• The Chinese tissue
market has been in a
very robust growth
phase, but in 2018
growth was suddenly cut
to half compared to the
previous year.
7.07.8 8.0
6.96.2
8.5 8.2
9.9
12.0
6.6 6.7 7.1
10.5
7.0
8.1
4.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Gro
wth
ra
te, p
erc
en
t p
er
ye
ar
Average growth: 7.8% per year
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 37
Chinese tissue export growth, 2011-2019
• Chinese tissue exports exploded in 2011-2014
and were shipped to nearly every corner of the
world, with Asia Far East, North America and
Japan the largest buyers, followed by Oceania.
• Growth waned in 2015, but resumed in 2016-
2018 to more than 900,000 tonnes, but growth
stabilized in 2018.
• Now that US tariffs on Chinese tissue have been
raised to 25%, we expected that growth in
exports will stop and turn into a decline.
• However, Chinese tissue export growth
continued to increase in 2019 (6.3% growth)
• Exports to North America declined but increased to
Japan and other Asian Far East countries, more
than replacing the lost US volume.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tis
sue e
xport
s,
thousand t
onnes
Asia Far East North America Japan
Oceania Middle East Western Europe
Africa Latin America Eastern Europe
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 38
Average growth rate, 2011-2019: 9.0%/a
Chinese investments exploding, but closures and project delays expected
• There is a real investment peak with
too much capacity being built, but
currently also a wave of capacity
closures in the industry—as much as
1.2 million tonnes in 2017 and 1.1
million tonnes in 2018!
• We estimate that in 2019 closures
continued, but will gradually decline
as the old capacity will be largely
closed by 2022. Of course, in a
competitive market, bankruptcies can
increase closures, and some rather
big companies have been hit by
economic problems.
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Thousand t
onnes p
er
year
Capacity change*
New projects Closures Net capacity change
Forecast
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
* PM start-up/learning curves not considered.
39
Net capacity change* and capacity utilization in the Chinese tissue industry
• The ongoing structural change
in the Chinese tissue industry
has been very radical and
quick, and it is expected to
continue in the next couple of
years. New capacity will
replace major parts of the
older capacity, and older
technologies will have no
chance to survive. This will
help balance the situation to
some extent, but it will not
totally solve the overcapacity
problem.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
2017
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
Capacity u
tiliz
ation,
perc
ent
Thousand t
onnes
Capacity change Capacity utilization
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
* Based on committed projects only, learning curves considered.
40
Global outlook
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 41
Anticipated growth in the global tissue market
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
Rela
tive g
row
th,
perc
ent
per
year
Thousand t
onnes
Volume growth Relative growth
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
• Tissue consumption has been
benefitting from improving
global hygienic standards, but
trade wars and other
uncertainties about future
economic growth shadow the
outlook.
42
Net capacity change* and capacity utilization in the global tissue industry
• The tissue sector is attracting
too many investments.
• Major capacity closures and
delays in project schedules
could improve outlook, but
only marginally.
• Global overcapacity is obvious
and new investments will
continue; the global tissue
markets are becoming
extremely competitive.
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006
2007
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
Perc
ent
Thousand t
onnes
Capacity change (L) Capacity utilization (R)
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
* Based on committed projects only.
43
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook
Concluding remarks
• Despite its weak consumption growth in 2018, China will continue to be the main driving
force of global tissue industry expansion, although overcapacity is a threat in nearly
every region. Project delays will be common.
• North American developments are characterized by steady and encouraging growth, but
also ongoing battles between brands and private labels.
• The North American outlook is surprisingly good, despite many recent and ongoing
investment projects. A lot depends on how much net imports will be affected by trade issues.
• Europe had a quiet phase due to the recession but is now picking up. Investments are increasing
in Southern and Eastern Europe. But we expect only moderate growth in Western Europe.
• In China, it is difficult to say how serious the effects of the current viral outbreak will be on the economy
and consumption of consumer goods. Less traveling, lodging and outdoor eating will certainly hurt the
sprouting Chinese AfH tissue business.
• The tissue business is becoming increasingly dynamic and global. Cost-competitiveness based on low-
cost hardwood pulp and energy through integration seems to be a major benefit.
• Import duties could change the current trends of ongoing internationalization in the global tissue business.
Chinese exports to the US are now in decline and current import tariffs of 25%, if in place for a significant
period of time, could cut the volume, although the effect in 2019 was weaker than expected.
44
Thank you
OUTLOOK FOR WORLD TISSUE BUSINESS
www.risi.com/OWTB
WORLD TISSUE BUSINESS MONITOR
www.risi.com/WTBM
US TISSUE MONTHLY DATA
www.risi.com/USTM
For more information:
Esko UutelaPrincipal, Tissue, Fastmarkets RISI
Email: [email protected]
2020 | Fastmarkets | Global Tissue Outlook 45