Global warming and sea level rise: Public discourse vs. the science of climate change

Dr Harun RashidEmeritus Professor

Department of Geography and Earth Science

University of Wisconsin—La Crosse, WI, USA

OBJECTIVES1. To study newspaper roles in public discourse on global

warming, climate change, and sea level rise

2. To review the coverage of Sustainability, Adaptation, and Mitigation (SAM) initiatives in newspaper discourse on ameliorative policies

3. To assess the nature and extent of media amplification of global warming and climate change in newspaper reports

RESEARCH METHODSRESEARCH METHODS

Electronic resources: ProQuest and EBSCOHost

Newspapers analyzed: 14 (6 US, 2 Canadian, 3 Australian, 1 NZ, 1 UK, 1 India)

Reports analyzed: 40 (target: 200)

Discourse analysis: Microsoft WORD count

Total numbers of words analyzed: 30,000

Nature of discourse Coverage by all newspapers(Percent of the total text)

Scientific elements 18

Physical impacts 11

Socioeconomic impacts 13

Mitigation policies 41

Public and media amplification 17

Likert-scale rating of amplification 1.39

SUMMARY OF DISCOURSE ANALYSIS: Global warming and climate change

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Temperature trend lines

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:IPCC data on temperature anomaly

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Natural vs. anthropogenic greenhouse effect

Astronomical factorsNatural greenhouse

gases: • Water vapour• Carbon dioxide• Methane

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases:

• Carbon dioxide• Methane • nitrous oxide• CFCs• Ozone (Ground level )

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Sunspot activities

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Solar flares

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Computer simulations

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS: Carbon dioxide pollution

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Polluting countries

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Forest fire in the US West

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Forest fire in the Okanagan Valley

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Drought in Kenya

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Floating icebergs

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Collapsing Antarctic Ice Shelves

MITIGATION:Emission reductions

MITIGATION:Emission reductions

MITIGATION:Carbon sequestration

MITIGATION: Iron fertilization

MITIGATION:Iron fertilization sites

MITIGATION:Algal bloom due to iron fertilization

MITIGATION: Geo-engineering in the stratosphere

SUMMARY OF DISCOURSE ANALYSIS: Impact of global warming on sea-level rise

Nature of discourse Coverage by all newspapers(Percent of the total text)

Scientific elements 14

Physical impacts 15

Social impacts 8

Mitigation policies 40

Media amplification 23

Amplification: Likert Scale Rating 2.58

SCIENTIFIC ELEMENTS:Recent sea level rise

IPCC FIRST ASSESSMENT (1990): Sea level rise by 2100:

Conservative estimate: 1 m rise (+3 C) Extreme scenario: 3 m rise (+5.5 C)

IPCC 4th ASSESSMENT (2007): Sea level rise by 2100:

Conservative estimates: 0.18 to 0.59 m rise Thermal expansion contributes 75% of sea

level rise

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Impacts of sea-level rise in Bangladesh

IPCC estimate (UNEP Map):• Nightmare scenario for

Bangladesh:

• 15 million people displaced from 17,000 km2

• Sea level rise accelerated by land subsidence

PHYSICAL IMPACTS: Accelerated river-bank erosion in Bangladesh

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Coastal erosion in Florida

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Tuvalu Island being threatened by rising sea level

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Tuvalu highway inundated by breaking waves

PHYSICAL IMPACTS:Male, capital of the Maldives at risk

MITIGATION:Coastal polders and forest expansion in Bangladesh

MITIGATION:Delta sedimentation

MITIGATION:Elevated foundations of homes

MITIGATION:Resettlement of climate refugees in Tuvalu

MITIGATION:Resettlement of climate refugees in Bangladesh

MITIGATION:Resettlement of displaced population from river-bank erosion in Bangladesh

CONCLUSION: THE WAY AHEAD

Newspaper discourse on science communicationSustainable mitigation measures: SAM initiativesAdaptive management