Upload
lytran1
View
226
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
1/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
2/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
2 Refer to important disclosures on page 140.
We are now seeing this softness in the numbers. For the developedcountry markets, our 2Q04 Matrix data shows negative revenue growthfor Finland (-2%), Japan (-1%) and Sweden (-1%), and 5%+ ARPUdeclines for Sweden (11%) the Netherlands (9%), and Japan (7%). Thissupports our more selective investment stance with respect to wireless inhigh-penetration markets.
Our subscriber forecasts remain essentially unchanged.
For 2004E/05E/06E, our net additions forecasts are 229mn (revised by-10mn), 193mn (-11mn) and 172mn (+9mn) respectively.
We see the potential for outperformance relative to our 2004forecasts.
Matrix YTD net subscriber additions (122.8mn) represent 55% of our full-year forecast. In 2003, net additions for the first half were 42% of thereported total.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
3/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
4/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
5/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
6/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
7/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 7
2. Subscriber ForecastsWe have fine-tuned our bottom-up net subscriber addition forecasts for 2004E-2006E, to 229mn (revised down by 10mn), 193mn (down 11mn) and 172mn(up by 9mn) respectively. These forecasts are extrapolated from our estimate thatthe Global Wireless Matrix accounts for approximately 97% of the globalwireless subscriber base.
Merrill Lynchs telecom equipment analyst Tal Liani uses our forecasts as a keyinput into his handset shipment forecasts. In conjunction with our June 4th report,Tal raised shipment forecasts to 602mn and 658mn for 2004 and 2005,respectively, up from 513mn in 2003. These forecasts are unchanged. Forreference, our Matrix gross additions (net additions + churn) total535mn/545mn/554mn for 2004E-06E, up from 494mn in 2003. Handsetreplacements not associated with churn are not captured in our grossadditions estimate.
There could be upside to our 2004 forecasts. We note that YTD net subscriberadditions (122.8mn) represent 55% of our full-year forecast. In 2003, netadditions for the first half were 42% of the reported total.
Table 5: Forecast Revisions (millions)Matrix Subscribers Old New Chg%
2003E 1,287 1,288 0.0%2004E 1,520 1,510 -0.7%2005E 1,718 1,697 -1.2%2006E 1,876 1,864 -0.6%
Matrix Net Subscriber Additions Old New Chg%2003E 216 217 0.3%2004E 232 222 -4.1%2005E 198 187 -5.5%
2006E 158 167 5.5%Global Net Subscriber Additions Old New Chg%2003E 223 223 0.0%2004E 239 229 -4.1%2005E 204 193 -5.6%2006E 163 172 5.3%
Source: Merrill Lynch Global Telecom Services Research.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
8/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8 Refer to important disclosures on page 140.
Chart 1: Matrix Subscribers 1998-2006 Chart 2: Global Net Subscriber Additions 1998-2006
268
454
696
903
1,071
1,288
1,510
1,697
1,864
-
20 0
40 0
60 0
80 0
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E
Millions
188
249
214
172
223229
193
172
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E
Millions
Chart 3: Matrix Subscriber Growth 1998-2006 Chart 4: Matrix Penetration Rates 1998-2006
69%
53%
30%
19%20%
17%
12%10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E
Millio
ns
6%
10%
16%
20%
23%
28%
32%
35%
38%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E
Millio
ns
Source: Merrill Lynch Telecom Research Estimates. Columns in red denote Merrill Lynch forecasts.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
9/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
10/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
11/140
GlobalWire
lessMatrix2Q04
Refe
rtoimportantdisclosuresonp
age140.
Chart5:Subs
cribersByCountryAsOf2Q04(millions)
305
168
88
68
59
57
54
49
42
37
37
36
33
31
28
25
23
23
20
17
16
14
14
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
- 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China
US
Japan
Germany
Italy
UK
Brazil
Russia
France
Spain
India
Korea
Mexico
Turkey
Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
Taiwan
Poland
South Africa
Australia
Netherlands
Canada
Malaysia
Greece
Portugal
Czech
Sweden
Argentina
Belgium
Chile
Hungary
Colombia
Austria
Venezuela
Israel
Hong Kong
Switzerland
Egypt
Source:MerrillLyn
chTelecomResearchEstimates
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
12/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
13/140
GlobalWire
lessMatrix2Q04
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonp
age140.
Chart6:NetS
ubscriberAdditionsByCoun
tryDuring2Q04(thousands)
14,9787,221
4,921
4,624
3,961
3,727
2,712
1,800
1,4821,444
1,383
1,237
1,212
1,087
1,003
1,000
868751
640
594
581
563
563
532
362302
267
250
220
201
185
160
160118
110
100
100
99
-2,000 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
China
Russia
Brazil
US
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Turkey
MexicoGermany
Thailand
Korea
UK
Japan
Italy
Poland
Argentina
Australia
Malaysia
Colombia
Nigeria
Netherlands
Chile
South Africa
Canada
France
Egypt
Sweden
Czech
Hong Kong
Israel
Hungary
Norway
Austria
Switzerland
Denmark
Belgium
Greece
Source:MerrillLyn
chTelecomResearchEstimates.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
14/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
15/140
GlobalWire
lessMatrix2Q04
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonp
age140.
Chart7:Mont
hlyChurnByCountryAsOf2Q04
7.5%
5.0%3.7%
3.6%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
India
Indonesia
Argentina
Hong Kong
Philippines
Denmark
South Africa
Russia
Mexico
Ireland
Finland
Colombia
Taiwan
Malaysia
Korea
US
Brazil
UK
Poland
Portugal
Thailand
Netherlands
Belgium
GreeceCanada
Australia
France
Chile
New Zealand
China
Austria
Germany
Singapore
Japan
Egypt
Israel
Source:MerrillLyn
chTelecomResearchEstimates.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
16/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
17/140
GlobalWire
lessMatrix2Q04
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonp
age140.
Chart8:YoYSubscriberGrowthByCountr
yAsOf2Q04
109%95%
68%
58%
47%
43%
39%
30%
28%
27%
27%
27%
25%
25%
20%
20%
17%
16%
16%
15%
13%
13%
12%
12%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
116%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
India
NigeriaRussia
Indonesia
Philippines
Colombia
Brazil
Argentina
China
South Africa
Egypt
Chile
Poland
Malaysia
Thailand
Turkey
Mexico
Hong Kong
New Zealand
Netherlands
Australia
US
Czech
Canada
Hungary
UK
Venezuela
Sweden
Israel
Germany
Ireland
Belgium
Singapore
Norway
Korea
Austria
Switzerland
Italy
Source:MerrillLynchTelecomResearchEstimates
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
18/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
19/140
GlobalWirelessMatrix2Q04
Refer
toimportantdisclosuresonpage140.
Chart9:PenetrationByCountryAsOf2Q04
103%
103%102%
101%
101%
101%
100%
99%
96%
96%
93%
92%
92%
91%
89%
89%
86%
86%
83%
82%
82%
81%
76%
71%
69%
69%
57%
53%
51%
50%
44%
42%
40%
38%
35%
34%
32%
31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Israel
Sweden
Italy
Portugal
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Greece
Czech
UK
Norway
Austria
Finland
Denmark
Spain
Netherlands
Ireland
Switzerland
Singapore
Australia
Belgium
Germany
Hungary
Korea
France
New Zealand
Japan
US
Chile
Poland
Malaysia
Turkey
Canada
Thailand
South Africa
Philippines
Russia
Mexico
Brazil
Source:MerrillLynchTelecomResearchEstimates
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
20/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
21/140
GlobalWirelessMatrix2Q04
Refer
toimportantdisclosuresonpage140.
Chart10:AverageRevenuePerUserByCo
untryAsOf2Q04(US$/month)
63
59
57
54
49
48
43
43
42
40
40
39
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
32
31
30
28
28
27
27
25
21
20
19
19
18
17
16
14
13
13
- 10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Japan
Switzerland
US
Ireland
Norway
Nigeria
Finland
Australia
Belgium
France
Austria
Canada
UK
Netherlands
Spain
Israel
Korea
Greece
New Zealand
Italy
Denmark
Singapore
Portugal
Germany
Sweden
South Africa
Hong Kong
Hungary
Czech
Malaysia
Taiwan
Poland
Mexico
Egypt
Venezuela
Turkey
Argentina
Russia
Source:MerrillLynchTelecomResearchEstimates.*Weig
htedbysubscribersduetoincompletehistoricalrevenuefiguresforcertaincou
ntries.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
22/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
23/140
GlobalWirelessMatrix2Q04
Refer
toimportantdisclosuresonpage140.
Chart11:YoY%ChangeinARPU1ByCountryAsOf2Q04
18%
11%
9%
9%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-0%
-0%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-6%
-6%
-7%
-7%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-10%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Turkey
Taiwan
Greece
Spain
Mexico
Egypt
UK
Argentina
Portugal
Canada
Ireland
New Zealand
Australia
France
Belgium
Hong Kong
Italy
Denmark
Singapore
Switzerland
Hungary
Austria
US
Israel
Korea
Norway
Germany
Malaysia
Finland
Colombia
South Africa
Thailand
Nigeria
Japan
Poland
Venezuela
Netherlands
Czech
Source:MerrillLync
hTelecomResearchEstimates.*Weig
htedbysubscribersduetoincompletehistoricalrevenuefiguresforcertaincou
ntries.1)GrowthcalculatedinReported
CurrencyTerms.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
24/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
25/140
GlobalWirelessMatrix2Q04
Refer
toimportantdisclosuresonpa
ge140.
Chart12:MonthlyMinutesOfUse(MOU)By
CountryAsOf2Q04
619
380
344
316
309
297
277
261
247
213
198
193
191
185
167
159156
155
147
144
140
137
132
130
127
121
120
119
119
118
118
117
108
106
105
- 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
US
Hong Kong
Canada
Korea
India
Israel
Singapore
China
Finland
France
Ireland
Taiwan
Norway
Malaysia
Egypt
AustraliaJapan
Denmark
New Zealand
UK
South Africa
Netherlands
Spain
Russia
Austria
Argentina
Portugal
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
Hungary
Greece
Belgium
Colombia
Chile
Source:MerrillLync
hTelecomResearchEstimates.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
26/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
27/140
GlobalWirel
essMatrix2Q04
Refer
toimportantdisclosuresonpa
ge140.
Chart13:YoY%
ChangeInMOUByCountry
AsOf2Q04
29.3%
25.6%
19.9%
19.6%
18.9%
18.1%
17.7%
17.3%
15.1%
15.0%
14.1%
10.3%
9.7%
9.4%
6.9%
6.8%
6.2%
5.1%
5.1%
4.9%
2.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.1%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
-1.3%
-2.1%
-3.7%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Colombia
Belgium
Greece
Taiwan
China
US
Mexico
Argentina
Denmark
Canada
Spain
Hungary
Turkey
Venezuela
Finland
France
India
Korea
UK
Norway
Hong Kong
Russia
Italy
Israel
Ireland
New Zealand
Portugal
Germany
Sweden
Austria
Egypt
Singapore
Netherlands
Brazil
Source:MerrillLync
hTelecomResearchEstimates.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
28/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
29/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 29
Chart 14: Revenue Per Minute (RPM) By Country As Of 2Q04 (US$/minute)
0.45
0.33
0.31
0.27
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.20
0.19
0
.18
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.04
0
.04
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Switzerland
Japan
Germany
Austria
Greece
Spain
Netherlands
Italy
Australia
Poland
Portugal
Czech
UK
Sweden
Hungary
Ireland
Norway
Venezuela
NewZealand
Turkey
SouthAfrica
Denmark
Mexico
France
Finland
Chile
Israel
Brazil
Malaysia
Argentina
Canada
Colombia
Egypt
Singapore
Taiwan
Korea
US
Russia
HongKong
China
India
Source: Merrill Lynch Telecom Research Estimates.* Weighted by subscribers due to incomplete historical revenue figures for certain countries. Revenue figure used in calculation excludes any reported revenues from data services.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
30/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
31/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 31
Chart 15: YoY% Change in RPM1 By Country As Of 2Q04 (In Reported Currency Terms)
8%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
-0%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-8%
-9%
-9%
-10%
-10%
-10%
-11%
-11%
-13%
-16%
-16%
-16%
-18%
-25%
-26%
-28%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Malaysia
Egypt
Australia
Turkey
Japan
Portugal
Singapore
HongKong
Poland
NewZealand
Italy
SouthAfrica
UK
Venezuela
Israel
Austria
Germany
Hungary
Ireland
Spain
France
Czech
Norway
Chile
Taiwan
Greece
Finland
Netherlands
Mexico
Argentina
Canada
Korea
Sweden
US
Brazil
Denmark
India
Colombia
Russia
China
Source: Merrill Lynch Telecom Research Estimates.* Weighted by subscribers due to incomplete historical revenue figures for certain countries. Revenue figure used in calculation excludes any reported revenues from data services.1) Figures inReported Currency Terms.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
32/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
33/140
p
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 33
Chart 16: EBITDA Margins By Country As Of 2Q04
67%
66%
54%
53%
51
%
49%
49%
48%
48%
48%
45%
45%
44%
44%
44%
43%
43%
42%
42%
40%
40%
40%
40%
39%
39%
39%
39%
38%
35%
34%
34%
33%
33%
33%
33%
32%
32%
31%
30%
29%
28%
27%
23%
23%
21%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Russia
Malaysia
Italy
Nigeria
China
Taiwan
Egypt
Czech
Spain
Belgium
Singapore
Ireland
France
Turkey
Sweden
NewZealand
Poland
Canada
Finland
Portugal
Greece
Germany
Switzerland
Australia
Hungary
India
Norway
Colombia
Mexico
UK
Korea
Venezuela
SouthAfrica
US
Chile
Israel
Austria
Netherlands
Japan
Denmark
HongKong
Argentina
Brazil
Source: Merrill Lynch Telecom Research Estimates.* Weighted by subscribers due to incomplete historical revenue figures for certain countries.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
34/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
35/140
GlobalWirelessMatrix2Q04
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage140.
Chart17:YoYE
BITDAMarginExpansion(BasisPoints)ByCountryAsOf2Q04
1,853
973
903
800
696
540
522
511
493
474
416
305
254
238
231
172
147
144
143
117
95
65
59
18
1
-48
-85
-164
-200
-200
-249
-288
-319
-364
-439
-492
-2
-7
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
- 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Turkey
Malaysia
Philippines
India
Venezuela
Poland
Canada
Nigeria
Portugal
Taiwan
Russia
Italy
Greece
Denmark
Ireland
France
Singapore
Indonesia
Germany
Belgium
South Africa
Finland
US
UK
SpainThailand
Hungary
Australia
Czech
New Zealand
Israel
Colombia
China
Switzerland
Hong Kong
Netherlands
Mexico
Norway
(Basis Points)
Source:MerrillLynch
TelecomResearchEstimates.*Weightedbysubscribersduetoincompletehistoricalrevenuefiguresforcertaincountries.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
36/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
37/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 37
Chart 18: Percentage of ARPU From Data By Country As Of 2Q04
41%
22%
21%
18%
18%
17%
17%
16
%
16
%
16%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
12%
12%
12%
12%
11%
11%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Philippines
Ireland
Indonesia
Japan
UK
Norway
Germany
Venezuela
Denmark
Belgium
Singapore
Malaysia
Korea
Switzerland
Australia
Greece
Poland
Czech
France
Italy
Netherlands
Finland
Spain
Turkey
Russia
NewZealand
Austria
Hungary
China
Portugal
Sweden
Taiwan
Israel
Mexico
Canada
India
SouthAfrica
Egypt
US
Brazil
Thailand
Source: Merrill Lynch Telecom Research Estimates.* Weighted by subscribers due to incomplete historical revenue figures for certain countries. Average calculation excludes countries for which data is not available.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
38/140
CS
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
39/140
GlobalWirele
ssMatrix2Q04
Refert
oimportantdisclosuresonpag
e140.
Chart19:Estim
atedAnnualizedServiceRevenuesByCountryAsOf2Q04(US$bn)
106.5
65.6
35.3
24.1
23.1
22.4
21.1
15.6
14.2
8.4
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
US
Japan
China
UK
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
Korea
Australia
Mexico
Brazil
Netherlands
Canada
Taiwan
South Africa
India
Turkey
Poland
Belgium
Greece
Switzerland
Austria
Portugal
Israel
Indonesia
Malaysia
Czech
Sweden
Philippines
Thailand
Hungary
Nigeria
Russia
Ireland
Hong Kong
Finland
Norway
Source:MerrillLynch
TelecomResearchEstimatesbasedoncountryaverageARPUasofthemost
recentquarterandaveragesubscribers
overthepastyear.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
40/140
C
So
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
41/140
GlobalWirele
ssMatrix2Q04
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpag
e140.
hart20:YoY%
ChangeinEstimatedServiceRevenuesByCountryAsOf2Q04
101%
93%
52%
46%
44%
43%
40%
39%
35%
28%
25%
22%
21%
21%
19%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
16%
15%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9%
7%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
India
Nigeria
Russia
Indonesia
Colombia
Turkey
Argentina
Egypt
Philippines
Mexico
Malaysia
South Africa
New Zealand
Thailand
Czech
Australia
Canada
Hong Kong
China
Poland
Belgium
Brazil
Ireland
Greece
Denmark
Austria
Hungary
US
Spain
UK
France
Singapore
Israel
Chile
Germany
Italy
Switzerland
Netherlands
ource:MerrillLynch
TelecomResearchEstimatesbasedon
countryaverageARPUasofthemost
recentquarterandaveragesubscribers
overthepastyear.
Gl
42 Ch
So
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
42/140
lobalWirele
ssMatrix2Q0429Septe
mber2004(Corrected)
2
Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpag
e140.
hart21:MobileSpendingasaPercentageo
fGDP
4.8%
3.4%
3.4%
3.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Nigeria
South Africa
Czech
Philippines
Hungary
Israel
Malaysia
China
Greece
Korea
Portugal
Taiwan
Poland
Spain
Thailand
Chile
Australia
Venezuela
New Zealand
Italy
Japan
Egypt
Ireland
Singapore
Austria
Belgium
Indonesia
Brazil
Hong Kong
UK
Netherlands
Switzerland
Finland
Colombia
France
Mexico
Argentina
urce:MerrillLynch
TelecomResearchEstimatesbasedon
countryaverageARPUasofthemost
recentquarterandaveragesubscribers
overthepastyear.GDPfromWorldBa
nkasofyearend2002.
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
43/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 43
4. Country Table Index
Table 23: Country Table Index
Country Page Country Page Country Page
Argentina 44 Hong Kong 76 Philippines 106
Australia 46 Hungary 78 Poland 108
Austria 48 India 80 Portugal 110
Belgium 50 Indonesia 82 Russia 112
Brazil 52 Ireland 84 Singapore 114
Canada 54 Israel 86 South Africa 116
Chile 56 Italy 88 Spain 118China 58 Japan 90 Sweden 120
Colombia 60 Korea 92 Switzerland 122
Czech Republic 62 Malaysia 94 Taiwan 124
Denmark 64 Mexico 96 Thailand 126
Egypt 66 Netherlands 98 Turkey 128
Finland 68 New Zealand 100 United Kingdom 130
France 70 Nigeria 102 United States 132
Germany 72 Norway 104 Venezuela 134
Greece 74
Source: Merrill Lynch
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
44/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
45/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
46/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
47/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
48/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
49/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
50/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
51/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 51
Table 31: Belgium (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly A RPU - EURProximus N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 41 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 41 41 41
Mobistar (Orange) 39 37 36 35 35 34 32 29 29 29 28 28 28 32 33 34 33 34 34 37 33 36
Base N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. na 25 25 23 22 21 19 22 21 21 21 22 22 25 25 24
Country AVG ARPU 39 37 36 35 35 34 32 35 35 34 34 34 32 34 34 35 35 35 36 37 36 37
YoY ARPU Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -19% -10% -8% -11% 0% 0% 1% 6% -4% -8% -1% 1% 3% 7% 4% 3% 7% 3% 3%
Country AVG Data as % of Rev N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0% 1% 2% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Proximus N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Mobistar (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Base N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 105 97 93 87 79 74 76 71 77 76 86 92 90 101 108
Country Average MOU* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 105 97 93 87 79 74 76 71 77 76 86 92 90 101 108YoY Monthly MOU Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -25% -24% -18% -18% -3% 3% 13% 30% 17% 33% 26%
Revenue Per Minute - EUR
Proximus N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Mobistar (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Base N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.21 0.19
Country Average RPM* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
YoY RPM Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Estimated Service Revenue (MM E 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.31 0.35 0.40 0.43 0.54 0.61 0.68 0.71 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.80 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.89 0.90 0.94
YoY Estimated Service Revenu N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 52% 60% 62% 76% 72% 70% 66% 37% 23% 18% 11% 5% 5% 2% 4% 14% 15% 16%
EBITDA Margin (%)
Proximus 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 37% 45% 46% 48% 47% 49% 50% 51% 50% 51% 51% 51% 52% 51% 52%
Mobistar (Orange) 2% 6% 8% 10% 11% 13% 21% 21% 20% 20% 23% 23% 32% 32% 36% 36% 39% 43% 40% 37% 37% 44%
Base 0% 0% N.A. -917% -357% -200% -152% -111% -41% -33% -23% -33% 13% 5% -4% 0% 13% 16% 8% 3% 27% 23%
Country Average Margin* 23% 25% 26% 26% 27% 28% 31% 31% 36% 36% 38% 37% 42% 43% 46% 45% 41% 43% 41% 40% 43% 44%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
52/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
53/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
54/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
55/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
56/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
57/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
58/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
59/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
60/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
61/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
62/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
63/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
64/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
65/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 45: Egypt
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
66/140
66 Refer to important disclosures on page 140.
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Penetration 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9%
Subscribers (000)
MobiNil (Orange) 230 290 380 540 680 850 1,020 1,230 1,470 1,620 1,750 1,860 1,960 2,110 2,130 2,280 2,440 2,560 2,784 2,991 3,155 3,292
Click GSM (Vodafone) 100 175 225 330 450 650 700 900 1,205 1,183 1,269 1,407 1,601 1,718 1,816 1,979 2,129 2,400 2,579 2,740 2,900 3,030
Total Subscribers 330 465 605 870 1,130 1,500 1,720 2,130 2,675 2,803 3,019 3,267 3,561 3,828 3,946 4,259 4,569 4,960 5,363 5,731 6,055 6,322
% Pre-Paid N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 80% 79% 79% 78% 77% 76%
YoY Subscriber Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. 314% 242% 223% 184% 145% 137% 87% 76% 53% 33% 37% 31% 30% 28% 30% 36% 35% 33% 27%
Market Share (% )
MobiNil (Orange) 70% 62% 63% 62% 60% 57% 59% 58% 55% 58% 58% 57% 55% 55% 54% 54% 53% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52%
Click GSM (Vodafone) 30% 38% 37% 38% 40% 43% 41% 42% 45% 42% 42% 43% 45% 45% 46% 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48%
Total Market Share 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Subscriber A dds (000)
MobiNil (Orange) 70 60 90 160 140 170 170 210 240 150 130 110 100 150 20 150 160 120 224 207 164 137
Click GSM (Vodafone) 50 75 50 105 120 200 50 200 305 -23 86 138 194 117 98 163 150 271 179 161 160 130
Total Net Adds 120 135 140 265 260 370 220 410 545 127 216 248 294 267 118 313 310 391 403 368 324 267
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 117% 174% 57% 55% 110% -66% -2% -40% -46% 110% -45% 26% 5% 46% 242% 18% 5% -32%
Share of Net Adds (%)
MobiNil (Orange) 58% 44% 64% 60% 54% 46% 77% 51% 44% 118% 60% 44% 34% 56% 17% 48% 52% 31% 56% 56% 51% 51%
Click GSM (Vodafone) 42% 56% 36% 40% 46% 54% 23% 49% 56% -18% 40% 56% 66% 44% 83% 52% 48% 69% 44% 44% 49% 49%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Monthly Churn (%)
MobiNil (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3%
Click GSM (Vodafone) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 46: Egypt (Continued)
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
67/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 67
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly A RPU - EGP
MobiNil (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. 247 228 185 151 141 113 102 105 99 88 87 100 90 99 101 116 100 104 106
Click GSM (Vodafone) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 84 84 92 90 84 91 90 94 97 100
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. 247 228 185 151 141 113 102 105 99 86 86 96 90 92 96 103 97 101 103
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -43% -50% -45% -30% -30% -24% -16% -8% -9% 7% 12% 7% 8% 10% 7%
Data as % of ARPU N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
MobiNil (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 150 165 188 172 162 167 180 151 159 167
Click GSM (Vodafone) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 150 165 188 172 162 167 180 151 159 167
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8% 1% -4% -12% -2% 0%
Revenue Per Minute - EGP
MobiNil (Orange) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.56 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.59 0.58 0.62 0.63 0.62 0.61
Click GSM (Vodafone) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.55 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.61 0.61 0.59
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -1% 10% 10% 22% 11% 8%
Est. Service Rev (EGP bn) N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.55 0.68 0.73 0.73 0.81 0.81 0.84 0.92 0.93 0.88 0.95 1.12 1.11 1.22 1.38 1.60 1.62 1.78 1.91
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 49% 19% 15% 26% 15% 8% 13% 23% 19% 38% 45% 43% 46% 46% 39%
EBITDA Margin (%)
MobiNil (Orange) 19% 32% 40% 34% 35% 44% 44% 41% 46% 48% 42% 47% 50% 54% 54% 53% 53% 54% 54% 54% 49% 54%
Click GSM (Vodafone) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 50% 52% 51% 42% 48% 50% 52% 54% 43% 47% 42% 42%
Country AVG* 19% 32% 40% 34% 35% 44% 44% 41% 46% 48% 46% 50% 50% 48% 51% 52% 53% 54% 48% 50% 46% 48%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
68/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
69/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
70/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
71/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
72/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
73/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
74/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
75/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
76/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
77/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
78/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
79/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
80/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
81/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
82/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
83/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
84/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 64: Ireland (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - EUR
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
85/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 85
Vodafone Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 45 44 43 44 45 45 48 48 48 48 50 48 51O2 Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 50 45 45 44 45 47 45 45 45 49 47 45 46
Meteor N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 32 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 31 32
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 47 43 45 44 45 45 46 46 46 48 48 46 48
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 6% 4% -1% 4%
Data as % of ARPU N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8% 9% 11% 12% 12% 14% 16% 17% 16% 18% 21% 17% 22%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Vodafone Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
O2 Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 205 204 202 200 188 188 185 188 194 198 198 198 198
Meteor N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0 205 204 202 200 188 188 185 188 194 198 198 198 198
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -8% -8% -8% -6% 3% 5% 7% 5% 2%Revenue Per Minute - EUR
Vodafone Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
O2 Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18
Meteor N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0% 6% 6% 5% -4% -4% -9% -6% -5%
Est. Service Rev (EUR bn) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.49
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 9% 13% 10% 9% 9% 12% 14% 15% 14%
EBITDA Margin (%)
Vodafone Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 39% 39% 39% 39% 46% 47% 45% 45% 43% 44% 45% 45% 48%
O2 Ireland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 29% 32% 31% 31% 33% 34% 37% 38% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39%Meteor N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 34% 35% 36% 36% 40% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 44%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
86/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
87/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
88/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 68: Italy (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly A RPU - EUR
TIM 34 34 34 33 32 32 29 28 27 28 28 28 26 28 30 29 27 28 29 28 28 29
Vodafone 35 34 33 33 32 31 31 28 28 29 30 28 28 29 30 29 28 30 31 30 29 30
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
89/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 89
Vodafone 35 34 33 33 32 31 31 28 28 29 30 28 28 29 30 29 28 30 31 30 29 30
Wind N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 17 17 19 22 21 20 21 22 22 22 22
3 (Hutchison) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 78 78 60 42 50
Country AVG* 34 34 34 33 31 31 29 27 26 27 27 26 26 27 28 27 26 28 29 28 27 29
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -3% -9% -10% -14% -17% -15% -13% -5% -5% -3% -1% 4% 5% 3% 5% 2% 2% 5% 2%
Data as % of ARPU 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 10% 12% 12% 12% 13% 14% 13%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
TIM 120 118 121 120 113 117 119 118 114 119 120 119 118 121 123 124 116 123 124 124 124 128
Vodafone 125 117 115 120 113 115 125 116 116 124 119 116 114 115 116 116 114 118 119 119 119 119
Wind N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 82 87 85 84 83 84 85 85 82 87 88 88 90 91
3 (Hutchison) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* 122 118 119 120 113 116 121 117 110 116 114 112 111 113 114 115 110 115 116 116 116 118
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -2% -7% -1% 2% -2% -2% 0% -6% -4% 1% -3% 0% 2% -1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 2%
Rev. Per Minute - EUR
TIM 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20
Vodafone 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.22
Wind N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21
Country AVG* 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.21
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -4% -5% -11% -18% -17% -16% -14% -2% -2% -6% -1% 1% 0% 1% -1% -3% -2% -3% -1%
Est. Svc Rev. (EUR bn) 2.19 2.39 2.59 2.84 2.95 3.16 3.23 3.32 3.36 3.55 3.73 3.82 3.85 4.11 4.42 4.18 4.12 4.51 4.78 4.72 4.71 4.92
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 35% 32% 25% 17% 14% 12% 15% 15% 15% 16% 19% 9% 7% 10% 8% 13% 14% 9%
EBITDA Margin (%)
TIM 47% 47% 47% 47% 49% 49% 48% 49% 53% 50% 52% 46% 53% 49% 54% 44% 52% 52% 57% 49% 56% 54%
Vodafone 42% 42% 40% 42% 45% 45% 45% 45% 49% 49% 49% 42% 42% 49% 50% 49% 49% 49% 51% 49% 51% 55%
Wind N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -20% -15% -10% 5% 12% 14% 26% 30% 23% 25% 27% 27% 27% 27%
3 (Hutchison) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* 44% 43% 40% 40% 41% 40% 37% 38% 41% 39% 40% 37% 41% 42% 46% 43% 46% 46% 50% 45% 49% 49%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
90/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
91/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
92/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
93/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
94/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 74: Malaysia (Continued)
1Q99 2 Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q0 0 3 Q00 4Q00 1Q0 1 2 Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2 Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q0 3 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - MYR
Maxis 176 169 162 154 145 136 127 117 114 112 108 104 97 98 97 98 98 95 94 92 87 84
Celcom (Tel. Malaysia) 191 185 179 174 156 139 128 118 111 108 106 102 91 83 73 68 73 69 66 81 80 77
DiGi Com (Telenor) 81 80 78 77 76 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 68 68 72 72 62 64 61 65 64 61
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
95/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 95
DiGi.Com (Telenor) 81 80 78 77 76 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 68 68 72 72 62 64 61 65 64 61
Country AVG* 171 164 157 152 139 126 118 109 105 102 100 97 89 86 82 79 80 78 76 82 80 77
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -14% -19% -23% -25% -28% -25% -19% -15% -11% -15% -16% -18% -18% -10% -9% -7% 4% 0% -2%
Data as % of ARPU 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 10% 11% 11% 14% 14% 14%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Maxis 251 258 265 272 259 246 233 220 225 231 238 244 234 233 235 239 253 246 242 235 216 212
Celcom (Tel. Malaysia) 211 218 225 232 223 214 206 198 199 200 202 203 203 203 202 201 201 195 192 186 171 168
DiGi.Com (Telenor) 158 153 148 142 141 139 137 135 136 136 137 137 137 137 137 185 177 175 177 176 167 164
Country AVG* 213 218 223 227 219 210 201 193 195 198 202 205 202 203 202 211 215 211 209 204 189 185
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. 9% 2% -4% -10% -15% -11% -6% 0% 6% 4% 3% 0% 3% 6% 4% 3% -4% -12% -12%
Revenue Per Minute - MYRMaxis 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.47 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.34
Celcom (Tel. Malaysia) 0.90 0.84 0.79 0.74 0.69 0.64 0.61 0.59 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.43 0.39 0.34 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.37 0.40 0.39
DiGi.Com (Telenor) 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.50 0.36 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.32
Country AVG* 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.66 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.42
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. -21% -21% -20% -18% -16% -16% -15% -16% -17% -20% -21% -22% -24% -21% -18% -15% -2% 7% 8%
Est. Service Rev (MYR bn) 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.21 1.30 1.41 1.49 1.60 1.75 1.89 1.97 1.92 1.90 1.86 1.95 2.10 2.21 2.31 2.63 2.72 2.77
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 11% 17% 24% 28% 33% 34% 34% 32% 20% 9% -1% -1% 10% 16% 24% 35% 29% 25%
EBITDA Margin (% )
Maxis 40% 44% 47% 51% 48% 47% 45% 44% 43% 44% 45% 46% 52% 46% 46% 45% 48% 47% 52% 53% 55% 61%
Celcom (Tel. Malaysia) 21% 23% 26% 29% 27% 25% 23% 20% 23% 21% 25% 24% 27% 29% 26% -7% 33% 38% 41% 46% 44% 45%
DiGi.Com ( Telenor) 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 30% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 35% 36% 35% 43% 42% 35% 39% 44% 45% 43%Country AVG* 27% 29% 32% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 31% 31% 33% 33% 37% 36% 35% 22% 40% 41% 45% 49% 49% 51%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
96/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
97/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
98/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
99/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 79: New Zealand
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Penetration 21% 24% 28% 33% 36% 41% 44% 50% 56% 59% 62% 61% 62% 60% 59% 59% 60% 62% 64% 66% 69% 70%
Subscribers (000)
TCNZ 609 677 761 858 922 980 1,031 1,151 1,269 1,298 1,337 1,379 1,388 1,308 1,248 1,229 1,235 1,250 1,270 1,302 1,337 1,352
Vodafone New Zealand 181 230 310 397 473 600 638 753 889 990 1,077 1,044 1,095 1,128 1,156 1,220 1,289 1,349 1,429 1,527 1,607 1,675
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
100/140
100 Refer to important disclosures on page 140.
Total Subscribers 790 907 1,071 1,255 1,395 1,580 1,669 1,904 2,158 2,288 2,414 2,423 2,483 2,436 2,404 2,449 2,524 2,599 2,699 2,829 2,944 3,027
% Pre-Paid N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 67% 68% 69% 69% 69% 69% 68% 68% 68% 69% 69% 70% 70% 70%
YoY Subscriber Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. 74% 77% 74% 56% 52% 55% 45% 45% 27% 15% 6% 0% 1% 2% 7% 12% 16% 17% 16%
Market Share (%)
TCNZ 77% 75% 71% 68% 66% 62% 62% 60% 59% 57% 55% 57% 56% 54% 52% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 45%
Vodafone New Zealand 23% 25% 29% 32% 34% 38% 38% 40% 41% 43% 45% 43% 44% 46% 48% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 55%
Total Market Share 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Subscriber Adds (000)
TCNZ 44 68 84 97 64 58 51 120 118 29 39 42 9 -80 -60 -19 6 15 20 32 35 15
Vodafone New Zealand 26 49 80 87 76 127 38 115 136 101 87 -33 51 33 28 64 69 60 80 98 80 68
Total Net Adds 70 117 164 184 140 185 89 235 254 130 126 9 60 -47 -32 45 75 75 100 130 115 83
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 99% 58% -46% 28% 82% -30% 42% -96% -76% NM NM 400% 25% NM NM 189% 53% 11%
Share of Net Adds (%)
TCNZ 63% 58% 51% 53% 46% 31% 57% 51% 46% 22% 31% 467% 15% 170% 188% -42% 8% 20% 20% 25% 30% 18%
Vodafone New Zealand 37% 42% 49% 47% 54% 69% 43% 49% 54% 78% 69% -367% 85% -70% -88% 142% 92% 80% 80% 75% 70% 82%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Monthly Churn (%)
TCNZ 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Vodafone New Zealand 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Country AVG* 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
101/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
102/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
103/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
104/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 84: Norway (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - NKR
Telenor Mobil 335 338 356 336 309 347 355 340 333 337 357 331 334 351 359 340 330 346 354 326 332 348
Netcom (TeliaSonera) 320 325 337 305 289 301 327 308 292 317 341 317 326 338 377 358 353 365 368 368 334 343Country AVG* 331 334 351 327 304 335 347 331 321 331 352 327 332 347 364 345 337 352 358 339 333 346
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . -8% 0% -1% 1% 6% -1% 1% -1% 3% 5% 3% 6% 2% 1% -2% -2% -1% -2%
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
105/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 105
Data as % of ARPU N.A. 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 12% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18% 17% 17%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Telenor Mobil 168 168 175 165 166 170 184 174 171 175 182 177 171 185 186 178 178 190 195 189 192 198
Netcom (TeliaSonera) 134 141 146 134 130 143 145 136 131 141 147 141 144 162 169 163 155 165 170 167 170 176
Country AVG* 159 161 167 156 156 163 173 163 159 165 172 166 163 178 181 173 171 182 187 182 185 191
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . -2% 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% -1% 2% 2% 8% 6% 4% 5% 2% 3% 5% 8% 5%
Revenue Per Minute - NKR
Telenor Mobil 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.04 1.70 1.88 1.76 1.77 1.74 1.72 1.74 1.63 1.70 1.67 1.66 1.62 1.55 1.54 1.49 1.40 1.42 1.44
Netcom (TeliaSonera) 2.39 2.30 2.31 2.28 2.22 1.94 2.05 2.04 1.98 1.98 2.02 1.96 1.92 1.82 1.92 1.87 1.91 1.86 1.82 1.85 1.65 1.64Country AVG* 2.08 1.98 1.97 1.95 1.79 1.89 1.83 1.84 1.80 1.79 1.81 1.71 1.76 1.71 1.73 1.69 1.65 1.63 1.58 1.52 1.49 1.50
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . -14% -4% -7% -6% 1% -6% -1% -7% -2% -5% -5% -1% -6% -5% -8% -10% -10% -8%
Est. Service Rev (NKR bn) N.A. N.A . 2.61 2.58 2.49 2.83 3.03 2.98 2.99 3.22 3.56 3.42 2.97 3.20 3.40 3.24 3.20 3.41 3.48 3.26 3.33 3.54
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . 15% 21% 16% 15% 20% 14% 17% 15% -1% -1% -5% -5% 8% 7% 2% 1% 4% 4%
EBITDA Margin (% )
Telenor Mobil N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . 34% 32% 40% 34% 36% 37% 41% 34% 40% 40% 44% 38% 41% 37% 41% 37% 36% 36%
Netcom (TeliaSonera) N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . 28% 28% 28% 28% 32% 31% 35% 30% 35% 43% 42% 33% 43% 44% 40% 38% 36% 30%
Country AVG* N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . 32% 31% 37% 32% 35% 35% 39% 33% 39% 41% 44% 36% 42% 39% 41% 37% 36% 34%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
106/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 86: Philippines (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4 Q99 1Q00 2 Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q0 1 2Q01 3Q01 4 Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - Peso
Globe N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 759 683 561 569 597 635 554 560 547 685 537 587 549 513 511 524 472 435
Smart N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1,187 1,056 914 911 567 567 592 589 575 579 598 575 440 423 414 460 398 391Piltel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 985 878 745 751 581 598 574 575 561 631 567 581 493 467 460 490 432 411
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
107/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 107
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. -41% -32% -23% -23% -3% 5% -1% 1% -12% -26% -19% -16% -12% -12%
Data as % of ARPU N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 10% 13% 15% 17% 23% 24% 25% 29% 36% 37% 37% 37% 35% 37% 35% 35% 40% 41%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Globe N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Smart N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Piltel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Revenue Per Minute - PesoGlobe N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Smart N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Piltel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Est. Service Rev (Peso bn) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.95 11.58 10.98 13.11 11.76 14.19 15.76 17.96 19.52 23.51 22.74 25.48 23.64 24.19 26.15 31.12 30.45 32.68
YoY Grow th N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. 31% 23% 44% 37% 66% 66% 44% 42% 21% 3% 15% 22% 29% 35%
EBITDA Margin (%)
Globe 37% 34% 40% 43% 40% 31% 39% 46% 44% 43% 45% 46% 49% 50% 50% 56% 60% 57% 56% 57% 61% 61%
Smart N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8% 8% 42% 50% 47% 52% 43% 46% 52% 51% 51% 51% 56% 57% 60% 76% 65% 71%
Piltel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24% 19% 41% 48% 46% 48% 44% 46% 51% 50% 50% 53% 58% 57% 58% 67% 63% 66%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
108/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 88: Poland (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1 Q00 2Q00 3 Q00 4 Q00 1Q01 2Q0 1 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - PLN
PTC (DT) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. 119 102 102 104 98 90 91 94 87 79 80 79 78 69 71
Polkomtel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. 119 117 119 111 101 100 100 100 82 85 87 86 75 76Centertel (FT) 176 160 150 140 128 128 123 108 100 79 85 80 72 74 77 70 67 71 73 73 70 72
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 102 104 97 88 89 90 86 76 79 79 79 71 73
YoY Grow th N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A N A -12% -13% -12% -14% -12% -12% -8% -7% -7%
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
109/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 109
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. 12% 13% 12% 14% 12% 12% 8% 7% 7%
Data as % of ARPU N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 9% 8% 8% 9% 11% 12% 11% 13% 14% 13%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
PTC (DT) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. 105 113 111 107 98 97 96 90 78 82 81 80 72 76
Polkomtel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. 127 118 107 105 104 97 84 89 87 86 78 80
Centertel (FT) 153 143 135 133 121 121 110 102 82 80 79 73 70 72 65 60 56 60 61 64 59 56
Country AVG* 162 151 143 140 128 128 116 108 87 84 109 102 93 92 89 83 73 77 76 77 70 71
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -21% -15% -19% -23% -32% -34% -6% -6% 7% 9% -18% -19% -22% -17% -14% -7% -4% -8%
Revenue Per Minute - PLNPTC (DT) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. 0.98 0.90 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.97 1.01 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.93
Polkomtel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.86 0.96 1.03 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.95
Centertel (FT) 1.15 1.12 1.11 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.12 1.06 1.22 0.99 1.08 1.10 0.93 0.94 1.08 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.05 0.96 1.01 1.10
Country A VG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. 1.10 0.94 0.98 0.98 0.93 0.91 1.00 1.02 0.93 0.90 0.92 0.89 0.88 0.89
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. -26% -3% -1% 7% 1% -1% -6% -5% -1%
Est. Service Rev (PLN bn) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. 2.34 2.47 2.73 2.77 2.74 2.99 3.30 3.40 3.27 3.57 3.78 3.97 3.85 4.18
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 17% 21% 21% 23% 19% 19% 15% 17% 18% 17%
EBITDA Margin (%)
PTC (DT) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 42% 43% 37% 38% 30% 36% 45% 39% 37% 48%
Polkomtel N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . 41% 42% 41% 39% 37% 39% 44% 35% 35% 36%
Centertel (FT) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 17% 21% 28% 18% 32% 30% 30% 30% 29% 36%
Country AVG* N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 34% 36% 35% 32% 33% 35% 40% 34% 34% 40%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
110/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 90: Portugal (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2 Q00 3 Q00 4Q00 1Q0 1 2Q0 1 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3 Q03 4 Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly A RPU - EUR
TMN (Portugal Telecom) 32 29 31 29 29 30 32 32 29 30 31 30 27 27 28 26 24 25 27 25 23 25
Telecel Vodafone 35 35 34 31 32 34 34 33 29 30 31 30 27 27 28 27 26 27 28 26 27 30Optimus 33 31 30 30 32 33 34 30 27 28 29 29 24 25 25 23 21 22 25 22 23 25
Country AVG* 33 31 32 30 31 32 33 32 29 30 31 29 26 27 27 26 24 25 27 25 24 26
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . -22% -8% 2% 3% 8% -6% -6% -8% -8% -8% -11% -11% -13% -9% -6% -2% -4% 1% 5%
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
111/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 111
Data as % of ARPU N.A. N.A . N.A . 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
TMN (Portugal Telecom) 125 128 130 124 127 136 148 140 132 127 125 124 128 131 132 131 118 122 128 125 116 122
Telecel Vodafone 136 143 144 143 148 154 161 150 127 134 145 141 132 139 138 136 123 124 127 126 121 122
Optimus 125 126 130 132 135 138 141 126 117 121 120 115 109 113 116 111 101 102 108 106 109 110
Country AVG* 130 134 135 132 136 143 151 141 127 128 130 128 125 130 130 128 116 118 123 121 116 120
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . 0% 5% 7% 12% 6% -7% -10% -14% -9% -2% 1% 0% 1% -7% -9% -6% -6% 0% 1%
Revenue Per Minute - EURTMN (Portugal Telecom) 0.26 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18
Telecel Vodafone 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.23
Optimus 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20
Country AVG* 0.26 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.20
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . -23% -14% -7% -11% -3% -4% 1% 5% 0% -7% -12% -13% -15% -4% 2% 3% 1% 0% 3%
Est. Service Rev (EUR bn) 0.31 0.33 0.39 0.40 0.44 0.49 0.55 0.60 0.60 0.66 0.72 0.73 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.76
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. 41% 46% 41% 50% 36% 37% 32% 23% 16% 8% 4% 2% 5% -1% 4% 1% 2% 7%
EBITDA Margin (% )
TMN (Portugal Telecom) 32% 40% 35% 35% 37% 40% 35% 36% 37% 37% 41% 39% 42% 39% 44% 44% 44% 44% 46% 47% 47% 48%
Telecel Vodafone 40% 39% 32% 35% 41% 38% 38% 22% 30% 29% 29% 28% 28% 30% 32% 28% 26% 28% 29% 27% 29% 32%
Optimus 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 15% 12% 4% 12% 12% 13% 14% 17% 17% 20% 17% 22% 24% 26% 20% 26% 32%
Country AVG* 34% 35% 30% 31% 34% 34% 31% 24% 29% 29% 31% 30% 32% 31% 35% 33% 33% 35% 36% 35% 37% 40%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
112/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
113/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
114/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 94: Singapore (Continued)
1 Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2 Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q0 2 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - SGD
SingTel 55 55 55 55 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
Mobile One 68 69 68 63 56 49 45 45 44 42 42 43 45 45 46 43 43 42 43 43 43 45Starhub N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 50 49 49 48 48 49 49 53 56 57 58 57 57 55 55 52 56
Country AVG* 59 59 59 58 57 54 52 52 52 51 51 51 52 53 53 53 52 52 52 52 51 53
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A. -39% -4% -10% -12% -10% -9% -5% -2% -2% 1% 3% 4% 4% 0% -1% -3% -1% -2% 1%
Data as % of ARPU 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
115/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 115
Data as % of ARPU 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
SingTel 148 157 166 177 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 248 246 243 240 234 226 229 230 236 240 241
Mobile One 185 197 207 203 195 180 179 203 207 212 228 225 225 229 229 222 214 219 218 216 226 233
Starhub N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . 688 688 688 688 678 668 658 552 542 532 522 486 476 430 410 399 379
Country AVG* 160 170 179 186 231 223 255 278 289 299 303 308 290 291 291 287 277 281 274 274 278 277
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A. -18% 44% 31% 43% 50% 25% 34% 18% 11% 0% -3% -4% -7% -4% -3% -6% -5% 0% -1%
Revenue Per Minute - SGDSingTel 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20
Mobile One 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16
Starhub N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.13
Country AVG* 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.24 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A. -27% -35% -33% -41% -43% -31% -32% -21% -15% -2% 2% 5% 8% 0% -2% 1% 1% -2% 3%
Est. Service Rev (SGD bn) 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.57
YoY Grow th N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. 36% 36% 39% 45% 52% 55% 47% 27% 14% 8% 6% 10% 12% 9% 7% 7% 5% 10%
EBITDA Margin (%)
SingTel 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Mobile One 31% 33% 26% 28% 31% 32% 34% 35% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 46% 45% 46% 46% 42% 47% 50% 47% 46%
Starhub N.A. N.A . N.A. N.A. N.A . -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% -20% 0% 5% 25% 28% 30% 31% 32% 33%
Country AVG* 44% 45% 43% 43% 43% 43% 39% 37% 37% 36% 35% 33% 33% 36% 39% 40% 44% 43% 44% 45% 44% 44%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
116/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
117/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
118/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
119/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
120/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
121/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
122/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
123/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
124/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
125/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
126/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
127/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
128/140
Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 29 September 2004 (Corrected)
Table 108: Turkey (Continued)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Monthly ARPU - USD
Turkcell N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 21 17 12 13 11 12 13 13 11 10 12 14 11 13 14
Telsim N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Is Tim / (Avea) N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Country AVG* N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. 21 17 12 13 11 12 13 13 11 10 12 14 11 13 14
YoY Grow th N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . -30% 1% -4% -1% -12% -8% 13% 30% 26% 18%
Data as % of ARPU N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 12% 12% 12%
Monthly MOU (minutes)
Turkcell N A N A N A N A N A N A N A 82 66 65 68 56 53 58 62 53 51 60 66 58 56 66
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
129/140
Refer to important disclosures on page 140. 129
Turkcell N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 82 66 65 68 56 53 58 62 53 51 60 66 58 56 66
Telsim N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 70 56 55 58 N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Is Tim / (Avea) N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Country AVG* N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. 78 62 61 63 56 53 58 62 53 51 60 66 58 56 66
YoY Grow th N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . -34% -21% -12% -9% -5% -4% 4% 6% 9% N.A. 10%
Revenue Per Minute - USD
Turkcell N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.16 0.20 0.18
Telsim N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Is Tim / (Avea) N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Country AVG* N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.20 0.19
YoY Grow th N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . -11% 5% -2% -5% -18% -14% 4% 16% 11% 5%
Est. Service Rev (USD bn) N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 0.73 0.59 0.65 0.58 0.64 0.74 0.80 0.72 0.69 0.82 1.07 1.11 1.04 1.17
YoY Grow th N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . -12% 25% 23% 25% 7% 11% 33% 54% 51% 43%
EBITDA Margin (%)
Turkcell N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . 26% 13% 32% 34% 27% 37% 33% 39% 39% 43% 32% 40% 42% 42% 57%
Telsim N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Is Tim / (Avea) N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A .
Country AVG* N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A . N.A. 19% 10% 29% 25% 20% 28% 25% 30% 29% 32% 24% 30% 32% 31% 43%
Source: Company data and Merrill Lynch Telecom Research estimates.* Country averages are weighted by market share, but they are ML estimates when information is either incomplete or missing.
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
130/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
131/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
132/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
133/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
134/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
135/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
136/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
137/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
138/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
139/140
8/9/2019 Global Wireless Matrix 2Q04 Sept 04
140/140