Global xEV & Battery Market Outlook - Macquarie Securities · 2021. 7. 22. · 1,190,000,000 ea 200,000,000 ea 16,000,000 ea 3,440,000 ea 1,790,000 ea 14,700,000 ea 210,000 ea

www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment!

Global xEV & Battery Market Outlook

SNE Research

Jan. 2021

- Macquarie Securities

www.sneresearch.com Think Energy and Environment! 2/45

SNE Research


Main contents

Battery Supply and Demand Forecast2

LIB Materials Market Analysis3

Cost, Price and Profitability4

All Solid-State Battery 5

Issues and TESLA 6

Demand of LIB for EV1


Introduction

■ Expansion of Battery Market

(Source : SNE Research)

SmartPhone Power Tool E-bike HEV PHEV BEV E- BUS

Product

LIB AverageCapacity

0.01 kWh(4.2V * 3000 mAh

= 12.6Wh)

0.1 kWh(6Ah * 18V=108Wh)

0.5~1.0kWh(36V * 15Ah=540Wh

,10S5P)

1.1~ kWh 11.7~ kWh 33~100 kWh 80~200 kWh

CapacityRatio

1 10 50 100 1,200 5,000 15,000

2015 Sales1,320,000,000 ea 63,600,000 ea 2,500,000 ea 1,690,000 ea 220,000 ea 320,000 ea 120,000 ea

13.2 GWh 6.4 GWh 2.3 GWh 2.0 GWh 2.5 GWh 10.8 GWh 9.3 GWh

2019 Sales1,200,000,000 ea 106,900,000 ea 6,500,000 ea 2,760,000 ea 530,000 ea 1,600,000 ea 77,000 ea


2025F Sales1,190,000,000 ea 200,000,000 ea 16,000,000 ea 3,440,000 ea 1,790,000 ea 14,700,000 ea 210,000 ea


■ Comparison of LIB capacity by ApplicationTESLA Model-S : 85~100kWhTESLA Model-3 : 60~80kWh

- Smartphone 15,000ea Capacity = E-BUS 1ea Capacity

※ Including of Mild Hybrid


Introduction

■ Global xEV Market


1 2 2 4 6

9 12

15 17

20 24

29 34

1 1 1 1

1 2

2

2 2

3

3

4

4

2 2 2 2

2 2

2

2 2

2

2

2

2

4.1 4.5 4.8 7.1

10.1 12.6

15.5

18.8 21.7

25.2

29.3

34.2

40.0

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

xEV Market Forecast

BEV

PHEV

HEV

34% 36% 37%

52%

64%70% 75% 78% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84%16% 12%

18%

15%

13%12%

11%10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

50% 52%45%

33%23%

18% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5%

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

BEV PHEV HEV

※ Excluding Mild Hybrid

Source: <2020.2H> Global xEV market and Battery supply & demand outlook (~2030)

- The global xEV is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21%, expected to be 40 million units by 2030 BEV : It will have a high CAGR of 30%, accounting for 84% of M/S with flagship models in 2030

[million units]


Introduction


■ Global xEV Battery Market


(Bil.$)

10 12 35

74

117

158

13 14

41

89

143

194

'18 '20 '22 '25 '28 '30

xEV Battery Market Forecast

Commercial

Passenger

75 96 111 228 408 561

756 960

1,166 1,377

1,674 1,981

2,407

25 21 23 38

69 102

147

200

247

300

368

448

549

100 118 134 267

476 663

903

1,160

1,413

1,677

2,042

2,429

2,956

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

xEV Battery Market Forecast

Commercial

Passenger

Cell price basis

(GWh)

- Demand for batteries for xEV will grow at a CAGR of 33%, expected to reach 2,956GWh by 2030100GWh in 2018 → 1,160GWh in 2025 → 2,956GWh in 2030


Introduction

Source: KRX(Korea Exchange)

■ Rising of Stock price in EV/ Battery fields (KOR)

2019.1 2019.4 2019.7 2019.10 2020.1 2020.4 2020.7 2020.10 CurrencyGrowth

(2019.1~10)Growth

(2020.1~10)

KOSPI 2,206.20 2,248.63 2,129.74 2,093.60 2,267.25 1,947.56 2,267.01 2,403.73 -5% 6%

Cell

LGC 379,000 389,000 361,500 307,500 354,000 376,500 568,000 692,000 Won -19% 95%

SDI 240,000 236,500 249,000 232,500 287,000 286,500 397,500 445,500 Won -3% 55%

SKI 188,500 193,500 177,000 169,000 149,500 100,500 135,500 148,500 Won -10% -1%

Cathode

Ecopro BM 67,000 65,300 52,300 57,300 76,000 144,000 136,100 Won 138%

L&F 36,950 31,850 34,000 23,400 23,900 20,600 40,500 40,300 Won -37% 69%

Cosmo AM&T 17,050 16,000 14,300 8,730 11,100 9,300 15,150 15,350 Won -49% 38%

Posco Chemical 61,800 62,000 55,800 48,850 60,700 53,600 82,900 86,000 Won -21% 42%

AnodeDaejoo Electronic 20,300 18,900 23,150 18,450 19,750 18,700 42,400 46,150 Won -9% 134%

Iljin Electronics 3,525 3,540 3,280 3,175 3,210 2,405 2,860 3,000 Won -10% -7%

Cu Foil

Iljin Materials 41,750 39,150 41,000 39,300 51,200 40,750 52,600 45,450 Won -6% -11%

Doosan Solus 17,800 28,750 34,750 38,500 39,600 Won 38%

SKC 39,300 37,300 44,100 44,800 54,600 53,800 71,400 83,800 Won 14% 53%

Separator Myungsung TNS 19,650 20,450 17,950 14,650 28,750 12,350 16,350 15,200 Won -25% -47%

Electrolyte

Foosung 8,310 8,090 12,100 9,010 9,080 6,950 8,460 10,450 Won 8% 15%

Chunbo 86,300 78,000 67,600 72,300 67,000 123,000 169,400 Won 134%

Dongwha 20,000 19,400 20,200 19,700 18,050 15,100 50,200 42,350 Won -2% 135%

Soulbrain Holdings 51,900 54,700 70,000 90,200 108,100 77,500 95,900 46,400 Won 74% -57%

Other Parts (Cap Assy', PCS, BMS, Charge/

Discharge)

Samwha Capacitor 66,300 66,100 53,500 51,300 61,900 49,550 61,400 56,400 Won -23% -9%

SangA Frontec 19,400 20,050 19,200 16,700 16,900 13,700 48,000 44,250 Won -14% 162%

PNE Solution 12,900 13,900 13,000 10,300 12,300 13,250 21,600 23,200 Won -20% 89%

Sangshin EDP 13,600 10,700 11,100 9,000 9,370 6,350 10,500 13,150 Won -34% 40%

Shinheung SEC 38,100 36,450 43,550 35,800 41,800 31,850 43,700 41,900 Won -6% 0%

Covid19

-28%

KOSPI Avr. 6%

xEV /Battery fields. 48% ↑

67%Avr. 48%↑

- In spite of COVID19, Decline of Oil price , Trade war between USA – China


Introduction

Source: Investing

■ Stock Price : Traditional OEM vs TESLA In 20’ 2Q, in terms of stock price, TESLA became a global top OEM over Toyota

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

'19 1Q '19 2Q '19 3Q '19 4Q '20 1Q '20 2Q '20 3Q

Tesla

VolksWagen

Toyota

Hyundai

B$ Stock price Comparison of Global OEM

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2020 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q

Stock price of CATL Bil.CNY

0

100

200

300

400

500

2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2020 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q

Bil.HKD Stock price of BYD


1. Demand of LIB for EV

Source: SNE Research referred to the basic frame of McKinsey's COVID-19 scenario and reconstructed to fit the EV market.

Knock-on effects and economic-policy

response(including EV-related policy) BetterWorse

Virus spread

and

public-health

response

Better

Worse

Rapid and effective control of

virus spread

... …

Effective response,

but (regional) virus

recurrence

…

Broad failure of public-

health intervention

… … ...

Ineffective interventions Partially effective interventions Highly effective interventions

GlobalEVMarket

Time

S1: Virus a partial relapse; slow recovery of electric vehicle market

S3: virus effective control;Rapid recovery of electric vehicle market

S2: Virus partial relapse; somewhat delayed recovery of electric

vehicle market

COVID-19, Impact of the Electric Vehicle Market on Public Health and Government Policy Response

GlobalEVMarket

Time

GlobalEVMarket

Time

■ Short-term (2020-2021) Scenario for Global Electric Vehicle Market

- The global electric vehicle market can be developed into the following scenario S1 (slow recovery)



■ Analysis of COVID-19 effect to xEV market - Despite the virus impact, the global EV sales and its battery installation grew 10% and 1% respectively by the third quarter of 2020, with the explosive growth of the European market and recovery in all regions from the third quarter.

1 BEV, PHEV in PV2 xEV(BEV, PHEV, HEV)





-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Demand for electric vehicles by major OEMs

OEM Top10 China Top10 Others Total

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Demand for electric vehicles by major OEMs

OEM Top10 China Top10 Others Total

xEV sales of global Top 10 will grow at a CAGR of 32%, expected to reach 28 million units by 2030Chinese Major Makers' xEV sales will grow at a CAGR of 17%, expected to reach 5.3 million units by 2030

(K Car)

17%

14%

12%

12%

76%

14%10%

12%

78%

10%

OEM Top10 China Top10

(GWh)

M/S 72%→74%

M/S 17%→14%

PHEV+BEVPHEV+BEV

72%(china19%)

74%(china18%)



■ VW will become the global top EV sales OEM from 2022.

potential volume


84 137 370

685

1,124

1,557

2,025

2,591

3,070

3,647

4,362

5,226

6,273

250 376 442 632

822 991

1,206 1,477

1,736 2,054

2,432

2,883

3,419

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Demand for electric vehicles (VW vs Tesla)

VW Tesla

2 5 13 33 65 93 126 163 198 235 288 343 420

20 28 30 43 60 72 90 110 132 157 190 225 274

-

500

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

VW Tesla

(K Car)

(GWh)Battery DayPlan(Tesla Announced)

3,000

100

1,400

2,000

*Tesla Wants To Accomplish By 2020 (2016 Tesla Announced)Realization

#1 Complete its giant Gigafactory ○#2 Bring the Model 3 into production ○#3 Launch a compact SUV dubbed the Model Y by the end of 2019 or early 2020 ▲(‘20.3~)

#4 Tesla will reveal an electric semi truck in September X (delayed)

#5 Reveal an electric pickup truck for consumers before the close of 2019 ○(‘19.11)

#6 Increase the range of Tesla cars to 1200 kilometers per charge X

#7 Make its cars fully autonomous X

#8 Produce 500,000 cars per year by 2018 X

#9 Produce 1 million cars by 2020 X

5001,000


2. Battery Supply and Demand Forecast

■ M/S Trend of Reading Battery companies- ‘19→’20.5 Kor 16→35%, JPN 25→22%, CN 52→37%


M/S Company 2017 2018 2019 1~3Q 2020

1 LGC 8.5% 7.5% 10.5% 24.6%

2 CATL 18.2% 23.4% 27.9% 23.7%

3 Panasonic 16.9% 21.3% 24.4% 19.5%

4 SDI 3.9% 3.5% 3.8% 6.2%

5 BYD 3.2% 11.8% 9.4% 5.5%

6 SKI 0.5% 0.9% 1.7% 4.4%

7 AESC 3.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.1%

KOR

16%

JPN

25%CN

52%

Others

7% KOR

35%

JPN

22%

CN

37%

Others

6%

2019Y 2020Y

8.5%7.5%

10.5%

24.6%

18.2%

23.4%

27.9%

23.7%

16.9%

21.3%

24.4%

19.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2017 2018 2019 1~3Q 2020

Electric Vehicle Battery Market Share Trend(%)



■ Battery Production Capacity Estimation '18~'30 - Top 6 battery makers will take 60% from the total capacity. (84% of top15 battery makers)- LGC and CATL will be leading player in the market

- If the existing expansion plan of the three Korean battery companies is achieved by 80 to 90 percent,- If Chinese battery makers (Tier1/Tier2) achieve 80 to 100 percent of their existing expansion plans and Tier 3 companies achieve less than 50 percent,- When European new battery companies achieve their existing expansion plans by 50 to 80 percent,

Source: <2020> Line new installation and expansion outlook of Global LIB Battery(~’30)

230 334

502 636

759 907

1,039 1,163

1,417

1,708

2,061

2,512

3,052

46%

61%

55% 56% 56% 55% 54% 53% 53% 55% 57% 58% 60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Battery Capacity Expansion

Global Top6 Others Total Global Top6 %

M/S Company 2020 2025 2030

GWh M/S GWh M/S GWh M/S

1 LGC 103 20% 189 16% 553 18%

2 CATL 44 9% 149 13% 452 15%

3 Panasonic 54 11% 60 5% 179 6%

4 BYD 32 6% 75 6% 232 8%

5 SDI 24 5% 74 6% 197 6%

6 SKI 19 4% 70 6% 207 7%

Top6 274 55% 617 53% 1,819 60%

39%

53%

60%



■ Battery Production Plan for Major Battery companies- It is expected that production capa will be expanded by major battery companies - NCM will lead the Global market, LFP market in China will be increased.


LFPNCM

LFP

Toyota向Tesla向

BYD向,Toyota向,China…

BMW向, FCA向, Porsche向

Daimler向, VW向

VW向,GM向,Renault向,Hyundai向,Volvo向

BMW向, VW向 Tesla向, china…

NCMA mainlyCheap and Low Cobalt Cell

NCM811 mainly(CSG)

NCA mainly

LFP mainly(Blade Cell)

LFP (CTP Cell)

NCM811

NCM, LFP Cell Dualization Strategy(Europe) (Low, China)

Expanded NCMA Application(Cost Savings, Compete with LFP Cells)

NCM811,91⁄2 1⁄2 Application Expansion(Energy Density Increase)

NCA Supply Capa Expansion(Ecopro J/V, internalization)

LFP Weighted (EV/ESS)Battery dispensing, customer expansion (Europe, etc.)

Tesla, Toyota mainly

Suppliers '18 '19 '20 '25 '30

CATL 21 30 44 149 452

CN 21(10) 29(11) 39(18) 79(50) 242(171)

EU 0 1 5 70 210

LGC 21 32 103 189 553

CN 6 10 41 60 189

EU 5 10 44 72 244

KR 7 7 11 20 20

IN 12 20

US 4 5 7 25 80

SKI 3 4 19 70 207

CN 0 0 9 27 80

EU 0 0 5 25 79

KR 3 4 5 5 5

US 0 0 0 13 43

SDI 9 14 24 74 197

CN 3 4 8 23 60

EU 2 3 10 38 109

KR 4 6 6 6 6

US 0 0 0 7 22

BYD 15(4) 28(9) 32(16) 75(45) 232(160)

Panasonic 32 35 54 60 179

Total 230 334 502 1,163 3,052

(Unit : Gwh)



■ The shortage is expected to occur from 2025Y- Based on the actual utilization(70% operation rate), the shortage is expected to occur from 2025Y

[GWh]

112 129 154 296

520 721

978

1,254

1,527

1,811

2,197

2,606

3,159

230 334

502 636

759 907

1,039 1,163

1,417

1,708

2,061

2,512

3,052

105%

160%

227%

115%

46%

26%

6%

△7% △7% △6% △6% △4%△3%

-1

0

1

1

2

2

3

-800.0

-300.0

200.0

700.0

1200.0

1700.0

2200.0

2700.0

3200.0

3700.0

'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F

Global Demand&Supply F/Cast

Demand Supply Balance


*) Based on 70% utilization rate

*) EV+ESS Market

2025 Shortage!



■ Supply shortage in Europe and other regions(Except China) in 2022Y- China is forecast to be Over Supply


49 61 87 173

311 450

621

806

987

1,184

1,452

1,745

2,138

66 76 124 164 205 308

408 498

618 760

933

1,147

1,405

35%

25%

43%

△6%

△34%△32%

△34%

△38% △37%△36% △36%

△34% △34%

-1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F

Global(Except China) Demand&Supply F/Cast


[GWh]

63 68 67 123 208

271 357

449 540

627 745

861

1,022

164 258

378 472

554 598 631 665 798

949

1,129

1,365

1,647

160%

281%

465%

284%

166%

121%77%

48% 48% 51% 51% 58% 61%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

500%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F

China Demand&Supply F/Cast


14 26 47 95 155

221 304

393 477

566 688

817

990

9 16 53 80 114 182

256 328

414 519

650

809

1,000

△36%△41%

12%

△16%

△26%

△18% △16% △17%△13%

△8%△5%

△1%1%

-1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

'18 '19 '20F '21F '22F '23F '24F '25F '26F '27F '28F '29F '30F

Europe Demand&Supply F/Cast


2022 Shortage!

2022 Shortage!

Oversupply!



■ Battery Demand/Supply Forecast by Type- 2030Y Demand : Cy 11%, Pr 42%, Po 47%- 2030Y Supply : Cy 17%, Pr 46%, Po 37%

61 81 122 136 158 178 202 215 256 298 359 440 528

112 160 209 278 333 391

451 509 630

777

938

1,145

1,390

57 94

172 221

268 337

386 438

530

634

765

927

1,133

230 334

502 636

759

907 1,039

1,163

1,417

1,708

2,061

2,512

3,052

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Cy Pr Po Total

[GWh]

Battery Supply Forecast by Type (~2030)Battery Demand Forecast by Type (~2030)

9 13 18 29 32 28 51 84 112 139 171 202 210 246 289 334

13 23 30 57 67 70 135

238 328

449 581

700 827

988 1,151

1,380

4 6 11 14 19 36 81

155

223

316

409

512

641

807

988

1,241

27 43 59 100 118 134 267

477

663

903

1,160

1,413

1,677

2,042

2,429

2,956

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Cy Pr Po Total

'18 '20 '23 '25 '28 '30

Cy 27% 24% 20% 19% 17% 17%

Pr 49% 42% 43% 44% 46% 46%

Po 25% 34% 37% 38% 37% 37%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

'18 '20 '23 '25 '28 '30

Cy 29% 21% 17% 15% 12% 11%

Pr 57% 52% 50% 50% 48% 47%

Po 14% 27% 34% 35% 40% 42%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


『 by battery type』『 by battery type 』

[GWh]



- Pouch(Po) : 2022Y Battery Shortage- Prismatic(Pr) : 2024Y Battery Shortage- Cylindrical(Cy) : Battery Oversupply

[ Po Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ] [ Pr Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ] [ Cy Type Demand/Supply (Excluding China) ]

[ Po Type Demand/Supply (Global) ] [ Pr Type Demand/Supply (Global) ] [ Cy Type Demand/Supply (Global) ]


2026 Shortage!

2024 Shortage!

Oversupply!

Oversupply!2024 Shortage!

2022 Shortage!


■ Li-ion Battery 4 key materials market also expected to grow significantly

- Cathode demand : NCM ↑ , Anode demand : AG ↑, Separator : Wet type ↑

3. LIB Materials Market


2018 2020 2025 2028 2030

LIB Cathode Materials

LCO

NCA

NCM

LMO

LFP

Unit :1K ton

2018 2020 2025 2028 2030

LIB Anode Materials

Others

Si

AG

NG

Unit :1K ton

2018 2020 2025 2028 2030

LIB Separator Materials

Wet

Dry

Unit : 0.1Bil m2

2018 2020 2025 2028 2030

LIB Electrolyte Materials

Total

Unit :1K ton

9 14

67

111

154

3 5

28

43

55

1 2

10

15

20

2 3

15

25

35

2018 2020 2025 2028 2030

Cathode Anode Separator Electrolyte

*

Unit : $ Bil

※*) IT+xEV+ESS Market



■ Comparison of Cathode chemistry

LFP has good stability and low price but it has low E/D than NCM. So, it is mainly used for commercial vehicle as it is less restriction on the space. CATL developed CTP technology and it will be helpful to increase the E/D of the LFP battery.



■ Cathode chemistry Development by Cell companytry to develop higher nickel contents for cathode chemistry.

By applying CTP technology, LFP is struggling to hold a certain level of market share.


Cell

producer

Cell chemistry

Major issuesCurrent usage

(2019. 6 ~ 2020.7) (MWh)Direction for development

Chemistry Portion

(%)

LGCNCM 622 81 . Focusing on NCMA

. Try to upgrade NCM 811

1) NCM 811

- Thermal stability

- Major usages are NCM 622,

523 and NCA

2) LFP Cost

- Cell To Pack

- Blade Cell

- Possibility to hold a certain

level of market share

3) Nickel Price goes up

NCM 811 16

SDI

NCM 523 84 . Focusing on NCMA

. Try to develop higher nickel contents such as

NCM 811NCM 622(90)+ NCA(10) 15

SKI

NCM 622 44 . Focusing on NCM 811

. Try to develop higher nickel contents such as

NCM 91/21/2NCM 811(50)+ NCM424(50) 56

CATL

LFP 38 . Improving LFP by Cell to Pack

. Considering NCM 622

. Try to overcome the issue of NCM 811NCM 523 41

NCM 811 16

Panasonic NCA 97 . Developing higher nickel contents of chemistry

NCM 523 1



■ Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Cathode material is expected to grow to 5.5M tons. With the growing need for a longer mileage, it is remarkable that the market demand is moving to High-Ni cathode such as NCA(23% in ’30), and High-Ni/NCMA(35% in ’30).

Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)

M/S : 8→3%

M/S : 21→21%

M/S : 18→23%

M/S : 7→4%

M/S : 44→14%

M/S : 2→35%


Based on xEV

√

√



■ Cathode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Expansion of Capacity as demand for high-nickel Cathode materials for EV

Issue 1: Competition for expansion of High-Ni in Korea

Cathode Maker Main Customer Production Site

LGC In-house LGCKOR, CN

50k→160k(‘25)

Ecopro BM(JV with SDI)

SDI, SKI, MurataKOR

60k→180k(‘25)

Umicore LGC,SDI,AESCKOR, CN, Poland

70k→175k(‘22)

Posco Chemical LGCKOR

40k→70k(‘22)

L&F LGC, SKIKOR, CN

40k→70k(‘23)

Cosmo AM&T SDI KOR, CN

- LGC(NCMA), Ecopro BM(Ni88, Ni92), Posco Chemical(NCMA)Umicore(NCMA), L&F(NCMA), Cosmo(High-Ni) extension investment

Issue 2: Low Cost competition

- Efforts to lower the cost of Cathode materials, precursor processing and CAPEX to lower battery cost

- Securing suppliers to lower metal prices with raw materials (Glencore et al.)

- Korea NCM vs China LFP Price Competitiveness- Active preparation for recycling raw materials through battery

recycling(Pohang Special Zone, etc.)

24.9 23.6 22.519.9 19.1 18.7

9.07.2 5.7

2018.3Q 2019.3Q 2020.3Q

Cathode Material Price ($/kg)

NCM811

NCM523

NCM111

LFP

[Cathode Supply Capa Expansion Competition]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ’22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25

LGC Ecopro Umicore Posco L&F Cosmo

[k ton]


Customer (KOR)



■ Anode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for Artificial Graphite(AG), Si anode

Source: <2020> LIB Main 4 Components Market Analysis and Supplier Status

Issue 2: Increased demand for High Capacity Si Anode

Issue 1: Increased demand for AG for EVAnode Material Market Demand Forecast (~2030)

- Better Life Cycle and Power characteristics than NG- China companies (BTR, Shanshan) and Japan (Hitachi) leading the market

- Battery companies adopt silicon cathode materials to increase energy density and improve fast charging characteristics.

Company Country Type

Daejoo Electronics KOR SiOx

Tera Technos KOR SiOx

Shin-Etsu JPN SiOx

BTR CN SiOx

Osaka titanium JPN SiOx

LPN KOR Si-C

BTR CN Si-C

Group 14 USA Si-C

Sila nano USA Si-C

105 123 151

307

441 556

641

772 890

983 1,036

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Posco

Shinzoom

Sinuo

XFH

Kaijin

Mitsubishi

Putailai

Zichen

Shanshan

Hitachi

BTR


101 112 194

308

482

679

911

1,149

1,292 1,423

1,524 1,549 1,595

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Gr Si

Based on xEV

IT, xEV, ESS(Total)

Target Performance

E/D

Fast Charge



■ Separator Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for Wet type, EU region

37 40 41 55 82

106 132

159 183

209 240

275 316

-

100

200

300

400

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Wet Dry Total

* LIB Separator Demand Market- As the xEV battery market grows, The separator for LIB demand market is

also growing rapidly. It is expected to be 31.6Bil m2 in ’30.

[Unit: 0.1Bil m2]

[LIB Separator Demand Forecast]

* LIB Separator Supply Issue- Major suppliers are in the process of aggressive expansion plans globally.

[Supply Capa Expansion Competition]

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25

SKIET

TORAY

ASAHI

W-SCOPE

SEMCORP

SENIOR

Major Suppliers: Plan to go to the EU for expansion

Source: SNE Research (Source : SNE Research)

[LIB Separator Demand by Application Forecast]

37 40 41 55

82 106

132 159

183 209

240

275 316

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Small xEV ESS Total

[Unit: 0.1Bil m2]


1,081 1,169

5,358

8,912

14,528

19,795

2019 2020 2023 2025 2028 2030

Others

America

EU

China


[Mil $]

Electrolyte Market Demand Forecast (~2030) Issue 1: Rising M/S of Chinese Companies

Issue 2: Stabilized supply and demand balance

- M/S of electrolyte companies such as Tianqi and Capchem is expected to continue to increase at low prices

- Today, supply is 307% more than the demand amount- By 2025 the balance between supply and demand is expected

to be normalized (105%).

■ Electrolyte Market Demand Forecast (~2030)Increasing demand for China & EU region

Source: SNE Research

Electrolyte Market is expected to grow from 2019’s 1 Billion$ market to 20 Billion $ market by 2030 (CAGR: 29%)

307%

381%

248%

163% 135%112% 105%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Demand

Supply

Balance

China,

54%

Korea,

12%

Japan,

24%

2018

China,

65%

Korea,

16%

Japan,

14%

2025



■ 4 Key Material Market Demand Forecast Technology Trend – Material RoadmapKorean battery maker’s development roadmap also reflects the LIB development trend.



* Direction of development of battery cells to meet the requirements of automakers

2019 2021 2023 2025 Direction of Battery Cell Development

Energy Density↑ 260Wh/kg620Wh/L

280Wh/kg650Wh/L

310Wh/kg750Wh/L

330Wh/kg800Wh/L

· Cathode : high-loading, high-nickel(NCA, NCM, NCMA)Conductive materials(CNT)

· Anode : Si-Anode, Conductive materials(CNT)

Long Life Cycle 800 Cycle 900 Cycle 1000 Cycle 1000 Cycle

· Minimize cell electrode structural deformation

· Cathode: Conductive materials(CNT), LFP

· Special electrolyte salts: LiPO2F2, LiDFOP, LiFSI

Fast Charge 2.0C 2.5C 3.0C 3.5C

· Cathode: Conductive materials(CNT)

· Anode: Si-Anode(low loading), Conductive materials(CNT)

· Special electrolyte salts: LiPO2F2, LiDFOP, LiFSI

Cost Down 110$/kWh 90$/kWh 80$/kWh 75$/kWh · Cathode: high loading, high-Nickel(low Cobalt), LFP(Cobalt-free)


△100%

△80%

△60%

△40%

△20%

0%

20%

40%

'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q

Profit Trend

LGC SDI SKI CATL

4. Cost, Price and Profitability

■ Financial Performance of Major Battery Suppliers- Samsung and LG's operating profits have turned to surplus since 2020.3Q

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q

Revenue Trend

LGC SDI SKI CATL

Revenue (Mil. $)




■ Financial Performance of Major Battery Suppliers- Battery sales prices will continue to fall

Shipment(MWh)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q

Shipment Trend

LGC SDI SKI CATL

100

150

200

250

300

350

'18.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '19.1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q '20.1Q '20.2Q '20.3Q

Price Trend

LGC SDI SKI CATL

Sales Price($/kWh)



0

5

10

15

20

25

LGC SDI SKI CATL


■ Financial Performance Forecast of Major Battery Suppliers- Financial performance of Korean suppliers will be improved in a few years.


[Sales]

* Source : SNE Research Market Data

[Operation Profit]

[Unit: Billion USD]

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2018 2019 2023 2025

LGC SDI SKI CATL

▲6%

10%

7%

7%

9%

8%

8%

▲91%

▲2%

13%10%

▲45%

7%

6%

▲20% ▲9%



Source: Press and SNE Research Estimated

[Unit: Bil. USD]

[Total Estimated Order Scale by Tier-1] [Global OEMs by Battery Supply channel]

■ Global xEV Battery OEM Project Plan List

- Major suppliers have significant order backlogs.



Source: Press and SNE Research Estimated

■ Global xEV Battery Supply Status (OEM Project Plan List)

- Major OEMs have diversified battery suppliers.

OEM LGC SDI SKI CATL Panasonic

Audi 70% 30%

BMW 10% 50% 40%

Daimler 20% 50% 30%

Porsche 100%

R-N 70% 30%

Volvo 100%

VW 50% 30% 20%

PSA 100%

Ford 80% 20%

GM 100%

Tesla 30% 20% 50%

Honda 70% 30%

Toyota 100%

HKMC 30% 50% 20%

[Estimated Order Portion by OEMs]

*Note: Approximate figures

70%

10%

20%

100%

70%

100%

50%

80%

100%

30%

30%

30%

50%

50%

30%

20%

50%

40%

30%

30%

20%

100%

20%

70%

20%

50%

30%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Audi

BMW

Daimler

Porsche

R-N

Volvo

VW

PSA

Ford

GM

Tesla

Honda

Toyota

HKMC

LGC SDI SKI CATL Panasonic

E-GMP SOP Order Volume LGC SKI CATL SDI

1st ‘20~’22 $8.8bil 1200k $8.8bil

2nd ‘22~ $10.5bil 5200k $6.1bil $4.4bil

3rd ‘27~ $26.4bil 9200k Bidding Competition

* HKMC E-GMP- LGC, SKI, CATL : 1st and 2nd orders, Participation SDI for 3rd


- Battery prices for EV are down to 5 to 6 percent on average- Cell : △5%, Pack: △6%- Cell To Pack technology is expected to start expanding in ‘21- ICE Price Parity: Based on pack price of 100$/kWh, year of parity might be expected to reach in ’23


122

105 100 92

85 80 78 76 74 72 69 67 65

159

137 128

117 106

96 94 91 88 86 83 81 78

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30

Cell Pack

ICE Price Parity



5. All Solid-State Battery

Research activities conducted by some OEMs and major battery makers(Toyota and VW…)

Source: <2020> Technology Status and Market Outlook for All Solid-State Battery (~2030)

system major research

Lithium Sulfidebattery

Cathode : SulferAnode : Li MetalSolid Electrolyte

LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Toyota, Idemitsu, Hitachi Zosen Panasonic, CATL …

Lithium Metalbattery

Cathode : AllAnode : Li MetalSolid Electrolyte

HKMC, LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Solid Energy …

All-Solid state battery

Cathode : Solid (Metal) Anode : Solid (Metal)Electrolyte : SolidSolid Electrolyte

LGC, SDI, SKI, SAIT, Quantum Scape, CATL, VW, BMW …

Lithium Air Battery

Cathode : Air Anode : Li MetalCatalyst

SAIT, Hyundai motors, KIST …

Solid Electrolyte system major research

Sulfide-based(1-x)Li2S-xP2S5

(LGPS…)

Toyota, Idemitsu, Hitachi Zosen, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Solid Power,, CIS, Chenbo…

Oxide-basedLi7La3Zr2O12 …(LiPON, LLZO, LLTO …)

Murata, Ohara, Taiyo Yuden, FDKUnist , Sevenking, Prologium…

Polymer-basedPEO (poly ethylene oxide)

Sony(Murata), Sekisui, EnervateSolid Energy, Blue Solution…

Mass Production

(Sulfide)

delayed

(Sulfide)

(Sulfide)

(Sulfide, ASSB)

(Sulfide) (Sulfide)

(Oxide) (Oxide) (Oxide)

(Sulfide)

(Polymer)


5. All Solid-State Battery

(Sulfide)

delayed

(Sulfide)

(Sulfide)

(Sulfide, ASSB)

(Sulfide) (Sulfide)

(Oxide) (Oxide) (Oxide)

(Sulfide)

Mass Production

(Polymer)

Source: Inter Battery and Roadmap Data for 2020

Since 2027Mass production of ASSB

2025 mass production of lithium sulfide batteries

1 4 1657

138

199

785

1,357

2,290

3,270

0.5% 0.5% 1.2%2.5%

4.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2020 2023 2025 2028 2030

전고체 전지 수요

전지 총수요

전고체 전지 비율

Battery Demand

ASSB Demand

Demand for ASSB for vehicles

2020 2028 20302023 2025

[unit: GWh]

In 2030, ASSB will take approx. 4% of the large cell market and 14% of the small cell market.


6. Issues and TESLA

■ Competition of TESLA vs Traditional OEMs- 2022Y 155GWh vs 100GWh (60GWh, SNE Forecast)- 2030Y 1038GWh vs 3000GWh (274GWh, SNE Forecast)

20 28 30 4360 72

110

274

24%

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '25 '30 CAGR

[Battery demand for Tesla as a function of year]

Battery Demand

(GWh)

• Panasonic(Giga Factory) Cy 35GWh+@• LGC(Nanjing, China) Cy 20→60GWh(‘23)• CATL(Ningde, China) Pr(LFP) 18→50GWh+@(‘25)

100

3,000Tesla Plan (Battery Day)


'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '25 '30 CAGR

[Battery demand for 4 major Car OEM as a function of year]

VW Toyota Renault-Nissan Hyundai Kia

11 18 3078

155222

393

1,038

46%

(GWh)


TESLA Issue1 – CATL LFP cellTesla Made-in-China Model3, which is produced in shanghai factory, will start to use CATL LFP battery Brief Information

Mileage(km)

Battery (kWh)

SupplierPrice

RMB USD1

Standard 445 54.0 LGC 291,800 42,154

Long Range 668 76.8 LGC 344,100 49,710

CATL LFP Battery

468 56 CATL ? ?

USD1: Based on Aug. 18th currency

. Delivery type: Module(CATL → Tesla)1) Cell/Module: CATL2) Pack: Tesla Shanghai

. Capacity: 56 kWh/vehicle(13.5 kWh*2module + 14.5 kWh*2 module)

1) Energy Density(Wh/kg, Wh/L, cell): 174 and 368 rep.2) Cell Capacity(min), Ah: 165.4

. Cell Chemistry: LFP

. Current Status1) CATL might provide Tesla with its LFP module the end

of September. So we might see Model 3 equipped by CATL’s product on Oct.

. Opinion 1) Not easy to produce prismatic cell with low height,

around , 83 mm for mass production2) Vehicle price in the market might be crucial for influence

, allegedly around 220 ~ 250 kRMB

6. Issues and TESLA


TESLA Issue 2- Activities inside TeslaTo strengthen the battery-related value chain, the master plan is established, and related companies are continuously acquired and merged

Strengthen value chain

. Battery equipment company for automation

. Cell equipment company

. Dry coating process technology

. Pack equipment company

Tesla’s master plan(‘20)

6. Issues and TESLA


자료 : SNE 리서치Source : SNE Research

Battery for Tesla Battery Evolution Forecast

GEN 1(2009 – 2012)

GEN 2(2016-2018)

GEN 3(2018-2022)

GEN 4(2022-)

Size 18650 1865021700

Prismatic4680

Prismatic

Chemistry NCANCALower cobalt wt%, Si applied

NCANCM811LFP(module)

NCANCM91/21/2LFP

Remark

Different chemistry depending on production Site(suppliers)

Dry process during coating

TESLA Issue 3- Battery chemistry and evolutionBattery size and its chemistry are changing in each stage, and the direction is assumed to be to reduce potential defect factors and increase productivity

6. Issues and TESLA


TESLA Issue 4- Dry process during coatingDry coating is a kind of process without using NMP solvent during coating process. It is to increase coating speed, save space and amount of equipment investment with removing vacuum dry machine and recycling machine for NMP

. Without using NMP solvent conducting coating process

. If it works1) Increase coating speed2) Save space and amount of

equipment investment3) Claim of cell capacity increase

** Remove VD machineRecycling machine for NMP

6. Issues and TESLA


TESLA Issue 5- Potential competitor in china and EuropeBYD finally launched Han vehicle with blade battery. Also BYD plans to extend blade cell in other upcoming vehicle model such as Song plus(2020)

Han

Song

Plus

Blade Battery

Item Han

65 kWh 77 kWh

Cells(Ea) 102 120

Current(A) 202 202

Nominal(V) 326.6 384

Energy (kWh) 65.9 77.6

Length(mm) 1377 1620

Width(mm) 905 905

Height(mm) 118 118

Volume(L) 147 173

Weight(Kg) 388 456

Driving Range(N

EDC, km)

550 605

1) 837 BEV of Han were registered on July of 2020 after it release

2) Estimate that there might be production issue for blade cell, but th

is blade cell could effect on BEV market with high demand in

china when BYD solves current issue

6. Issues and TESLA


TESLA Issue 6- Price for cell In the year of 2020, cell and pack price are estimated at 100$ and 120 respectively, with a price drop of about 6% each year. In addition, it is also estimated that the price of LFP cell will be about 10% lower of NCM

* not considering the LME-linked price due to raw material variations

144

122

100* 85 76

69 65

~120

'17 '18 '20 '22 '25 '28 '30

Battery Price

Cell Pack

[Tesla Battery Day 2020]

6. Issues and TESLA


Major Challenge for TESLA’s planBattery experts say some are under development by existing battery companies and some are less feasible. In addition, the opposite effect of cost reduction needs to be reviewed.

Item Breakthrough Issue Effect Feasibility

Cathode Dry coatingControl thinness within 1% for NCM/NCA chemistry* Technology for capacity

High Very Low

AnodeLow price silicon

Concept status in the battery industry for high elastic and conducting polymer

High Medium

Structuralbattery

Design ? Medium High

Design Tabless. Design/manufacturing. Most battery companies

Medium High

[Major Breakthrough]

6. Issues and TESLA


Thank you

Documents

Global xEV & Battery Market Outlook - Macquarie Securities · 2021. 7. 22. · 1,190,000,000 ea 200,000,000 ea 16,000,000 ea 3,440,000 ea 1,790,000 ea 14,700,000 ea 210,000 ea