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1 GLP Taipei Nodal Office Room 603, Hao-han Hall No.1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road Da’an District Taipei, Taiwan 10617 TEL: +886-2-3366-3488 FAX: +886-2-3366-1702 GLP Contributing Project Proposal Land Resources Core Project Funding source: Department of Natural Sciences and Sustainable Development Ministry of Science and Technology Funding period: 1 st August 2016 - 31 st July 2019

GLP Contributing Project Proposal · PDF fileGLP Taipei Nodal Office Room 603, ... FAX: +886-2-3366-1702 GLP Contributing Project Proposal ... as well as uncertainty analysis based

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1

GLP Taipei Nodal Office

Room 603, Hao-han Hall

No.1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road

Da’an District Taipei, Taiwan

10617

TEL: +886-2-3366-3488

FAX: +886-2-3366-1702

GLP Contributing Project

Proposal

Land Resources Core Project

Funding source: Department of Natural Sciences and Sustainable Development

Ministry of Science and Technology

Funding period: 1st August 2016 - 31st July 2019

2

Summary

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is primarily induced by socioeconomic development

(anthropogenic forces) and global climatic and environmental change (natural forces).

By directly or indirectly impacting regional geophysical processes, LUCC affects

atmospheric, climatic, and hydrological conditions. These conditions may cause

disaster scenarios which are further aggravated by LUCC. Such destructive events can

impede national sustainable management efforts when economies and citizens struggle

to cope. Though Taiwan is a country devoted to sustainable management, in the last two

decades it has been experiencing tremendous LUCC and increased frequency and

severity of floods, droughts, and landslides. “The Land Resources Core Project”, is

divided into three categories and seven sub-projects. Implemented over a three year

period (Table 1), collaborated scientific efforts in policy, modeling, and the promotion

of land sustainability will be integrating on a web-based sustainability platform.

Project Conceptual Framework

3

Project Timeline Overview

Year 1

Explore the dynamics and mechanisms of land system changes in Taiwan including

cities, villages, slopes, and coastal areas. Analyze the dynamic mechanisms and

feedback loops involved in land system changes and various other factors such as

the economy, inter-sectoral governance, and atmospheric and climate related

impacts. Integrate economic and policy considerations into LUCC predictions to

identify ways to increase overall land resource robustness.

Year 2

Forecast probable land use change and quantify the uncertainty of predictions.

Review CLUE-s literature. Simulate land use suitability as well as LUCC and

associated uncertainty based on three scenarios with the CLUE-s GIS model.

Year 3

Verify sub-project interactions to discuss a number of driving forces, with the aim

of integrating projects and building a complete GIS model. Estimate future land use

changes in the selected research areas with the CLUE-s optimization model.

4

Table of Contents

Summary

I. Introduction

II. The Land Resources Core Project

Project Aim and Objectives

Sub-Projects

i. Modeling Dynamic Changes and Mechanisms of Land

Systems

ii. Database Establishment of Land Use/ Cover Changes and

Index Application on Slope Land

iii. Urban Land Use Change and Resilient City Land

Management in Taiwan Area

iv. Rural Land Use Change and Make Resilience Rural Land

Use Management in Taiwan

v. Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and

Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications

Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General

Equilibrium Models

vi. Interactions Between Taiwan's Land Use/Cover Change,

Regional Atmospheric and Hydro-Meteorological

Modeling, and Large-Scale Climate Variability

vii. Theorization of De-Territorialized Environmental Risk

Assemblage under the Context of East Asian Industrial

Land Process: Scalar Perspectives on “Built Environment

in the Urban” and “Earth Force in the Region”

The Integrated Structure and Work Allocation

III. Research Schedule

IV. Conclusion

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5

6

7

9

12

13

14

16

18

20

21

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I. Introduction

The Land Resources Core Project addresses land resource related issues, with particular

emphasis on urgent land systems challenges. It is a collaborative effort of several

research teams. The Global Land Project Taipei Nodal Office primarily conducts and

orchestrates the research, with participants from different institutions that investigate

the status of developed, undeveloped, and developing lands. The main goal is to

ameliorate current land system problems and promote appropriate future land use in

order to increase sustainable development across the nation in the coming decade.

Beyond providing research progress updates and relevant news, the Land Resources

Core Project website informs the public of the importance of suitable land use practices

and research outcomes, thereby serving as a comprehensive sustainability platform.

Land Resources Core Project Website

http://lrcp.ntu.edu.tw/

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II. The Land Resources Core Project

Project Aim and Objectives

The Future Earth, proposed in 2013, integrates important stakeholders from different

fields to foster interdisciplinary scientific research collaboration and to study earth

sustainability related issues. Nested within The Future Earth, the Global Land

Programme (GLP) advances three main themes for research that include the dynamic

changes of land systems, consequences of land system changes, and integrated analysis

and modeling for land sustainability. The GLP Taipei Nodal Office is responsible for

the research, planning, and execution of the GLP program objectives. The team is

locally based, and focuses on Taiwan land systems. The team is expected to contribute

research findings to the GLP and to maintain affiliation with The Future Earth.

In support of GLP objectives and to inform decision-making on the interrelationship

between the economy, atmospheric and climate related impacts, and inter-sectoral

governance, the Land Resources Core Project aims to: understand driving factors,

dynamic changes, and change mechanisms of Taiwan land systems. Systems analyses

on Taiwan urban, rural, slope and coastal areas will utilize land use change models to

investigate development processes, dynamic system change processes, and causal

relationships. Economic and policy priority considerations taken while developing land

use forecasting models will reflect Taiwan’s land resource resiliency for further

discussion.

Research findings will also inform as-needed revisions of the 2016 Spatial Planning

Act, which provides assessment data and planning guidance for Taiwan development

strategies. By participating in the GLP, the Land Resources Core Project promotes

Taiwan as a global model for land use change and sustainability management.

7

Sub-Projects

The Land Resources Core Project is comprised of seven sub-projects with the main

project responsible for sub-project research integration. Sub-projects and principal

investigators are listed below:

Sub-Project Title Principal Investigator

1 Modeling Dynamic Changes and Mechanisms of Land

Systems

Prof. Yu-Pin Lin

Prof. Shih-Liang Chan

Associate Prof. Shiau-Yun Lu

Associate Prof. Li-Chi Chiang

2 Database Establishment of Land Use/Cover Changes

and Index Application on Slope Land

Prof. Chao-yuan Lin

3 Urban Land Use Change and Resilient City Land

Management in Taiwan

Prof. Hsiao-Lan Liu

4 Rural Land Use Change and Make Resilience Rural

Land Use Management in Taiwan

Prof. Chen-Fa Wu

Prof. Feng-Tyan Lin

5 Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and

Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications

Linking Global and Taiwan Computable General

Equilibrium Models

Associate Prof. Huey-Lin Lee

6 Interactions between Taiwan's Land Use/Cover Change

and Regional Atmospheric and Hydro-Meteorological

Modeling and Large-Scale Climate Variability

Assist Prof. Chia-Jeng Chen

Associate Prof. Jehn-Yih Juang

Assist Prof. Min-Hui Lo

7 Theorization of De-Territorialized Environmental Risk

Assemblage under the Context of East Asian Industrial

Land Process: Scalar Perspectives on “Built

Environment in the Urban” and “Earth Force in the

Region”

Prof. Shiuh-Shen Chien

As the lead sub-project, Sub-Project 1 will use an updated version of the Conversion of

Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-s) modeling framework to estimate the current status

and distribution of land use types in Taiwan. Sub-Project 1 is responsible for carrying

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out detailed analysis on the dynamic changes and mechanisms of land systems,

followed by multi-scenario quantification and simulation. Sub-Projects 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

will conduct studies on the driving factors of land use change, the causality between

the economy and land use, and interactions between the atmosphere and land use. The

research results of these subgroups will support the investigations of the lead sub-

project while the model developed by Sub-Project 1 will contribute to Sub-Projects 2,

3, 4, 5, and 6 conclusions. Predictive simulation results will be integrated into Sub-

Project 7 for qualitative environmental management and risk analysis. Consolidated

end results will be both quantitative and qualitative for resilient land use management

strategy planning and future development assessments. Sub-project abstracts are

presented in the next section.

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Sub-Project 1: Modeling Dynamic Changes and Mechanisms of Land

Systems

Prof. Yu-Pin Lin, Prof. Shih-Liang Chan, Associate Prof. Shiau-Yun

Lu, and Associate Prof. Li-Chi Chiang

Land use change is a spatiotemporal process that includes a large number of interrelated

natural and anthropological factors. Due to the uncertainty originating from these

factors and the complex interactions between factors, predicting future land use change

is problematic. Land use change models, however, can identify the causes and effects

of land use change. Land use planning and policy, then, is further supported when

informed by land system functional element quantification, land use type and driving

factor interaction analyses, and land use change prediction. Accordingly, this sub-

project will establish a GIS-based module to: identify the relationship between existing

land use types, analyze land use changes and driving factors, predict future land use

change, and resolve uncertainty issues from data, model parameters, and modeling

procedures. The objectives of this three-year sub-project are as follows:

Year One: Generate Taiwan land use suitability maps by identifying linear and

nonlinear relationships between land use change and predictors of change. Utilize GIS-

based land-use suitability module of five models, 1) Generalized Linear Model, 2)

Generalized Additive Model, 3) Artificial Neural Network, 4) Support Vector Machine,

and 5) Random Forest. Calculate AUC value and variations of each suitability map

generated from different land use categories and methods. Validate identified driving

factors and further discussion.

Year Two: Simulate Taiwan land use change using Conversion of Land Use and its

Effects (CLUE-s) model with different land use scenarios including, maximum AUC

value suitability map combinations, high AUC value suitability map combinations, and

greater than 0.6 AUC value suitability map combinations per land use category.

Develop GIS-based model for Bayesian uncertainty quantification.

Year Three: Identify and analyze land use change driving factors for selected land use

types within the study area, and for each sub-project. Integrate total sub-project model

data into a user-friendly GIS module.

The global impacts of coastal disasters demonstrate the high vulnerability of coastal

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cities and the urgent demand for establishing coastal city resilience. The Taiwan island’s

critical need for a comprehensive coastal plan, is evidenced by the 2014 Coastal Zone

Management Act. Accordingly, coastal LUCC will also be examined in detail during

Sub-Project 1 execution. Specifically, modeling resilient coastal cities will identify

indicators for coastal city vulnerability calculations, and for coastal land use planning

strategies and policy development.

Sub-Project 1 is the leading edge for Taiwan participation in global land use research.

Because it is the first nationally funded research project of its kind that considers the

relationship between land use change and driving factors, as well as uncertainty analysis

based on an optimal CLUE-s model, this project will enhance the international

influence of global land use research and nurture local talent. Additionally, the GIS-

based module will be used to simulate different national land use planning scenarios to

inform decision-makers.

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Sub-Project 1 Flow Chart

12

Sub-Project 2: Database Establishment of Land Use/Cover Changes

and Index Application on Slope Land

Prof. Chao-yuan Lin

Taiwan was once known as “Formosa” due to its plentiful forest resources. The

mountainous landscape, high species diversity, location within the East Asian Monsoon

region, along with its high annual average rainfall of 2500mm per year, have formed

Taiwan’s unique ecosystem. Under rapid population growth, limited land resources, and

to satisfy demands, however, many slopes have been transformed by continuous

development into farmland or residential areas. Because land use and/or land cover

changes can lead to environmental issues such as flooding, water pollution, and

landslides, the objectives of this three-year sub-project are as follows:

Year One: Analyze changes in land and water resources and examine the influential

factors of major disasters in watersheds.

Year Two: Establish a management model based on LUCC hot spot areas from multi-

scale perspectives, e.g., large scale (river basin), medium scale (management unit) and

small scale (cadaster and pixel levels).

Year Three: Draft a strategic plan for response to environmental change using three case

studies that evaluate the potential deep-seated landslide areas in a watershed. Identify

the optimum groundwater recharge site to counteract significant watershed subsidence,

and discuss the spatial distribution change of carbon sequestration in a watershed.

Maintain an integrated stewardship model in the watershed for conservation and

monitoring management that informs authorities.

Sub-Project 2 will analyze the multi-faceted aspects of environmental issues in a

watershed including, landslides, floods, wildfires, water resource conservation,

grassland succession, and wetland conservation by using environmental indices.

Research results will enable further exploration of LUCC driving factors and impacts.

13

Sub-Project 3: Urban Land Use Change and Resilient City Land

Management in Taiwan

Prof. Hsiao-Lan Liu

Urbanization is one of the critical factors that impact global environmental change in

the 21st century. High-density development, land use patterns, urban structures, and

consumption patterns in urban areas contribute to CO2 emissions and increasing

temperatures. In recent years, people have become aware of the severe risks that climate

change pose for our cities, particularly the threats to urban infrastructures, ecological

systems, and urban economic development. Thus, the concept of resilient cities has

gained considerable attention and interest in past few years and land use management

in and around cities should be considered when establishing a resilient city plan1. The

objectives of this three-year sub-project are as follows:

Year One: Investigate Taiwan’s urban LUCC as well as its driving forces from 1995 to

2007.

Year Two: Apply tele-connection concepts to examine the factors that influence urban

land use change in Taiwan, and how urban LUCC impacts climate change.

Year Three: Develop a resilient city land-use management strategy based on research

findings.

1 LU, P. & STEAD, D. 2013. Understanding the notion of resilience in spatial planning: a case study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Cities (SSCI)

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Sub-Project 4: Rural Land Use Change and Make Resilience Rural

Land Use Management in Taiwan

Prof. Chen-Fa Wu, Prof. Feng-Tyan Lin

Rural countryside functions are essential for understanding social and land system

interactions, and are the top agenda of many international research projects. The 2015

National Land Use Planning Act provides instructions for agricultural development

planning along with relevant principles applicable to rural areas. An impact assessment

of current and successive policies, however, for an overall land use strategy assessment

will inform future policy decisions. Accordingly, this study will investigate the national

land use changes in Taiwan from 1995 to 2007, and construct a resilient land use

management model. In order to increase national support of rural countryside functions

and to synchronize our results with other international research projects and trends,

Sub-Project 4 focuses on three rural countryside functions including crop production,

countryside amenities, and ecosystem services. The objectives of this three-year sub-

project are as follows:

Year One: Investigate and discuss the national land use change processes in Taiwan and

their underlying driving forces by utilizing both a comprehensive literature review and

the project ground theory. Analyze the effect of multiple factors on land use distribution,

change, and change processes with binomial logistic regression. Quantitatively evaluate

land system dynamic change mechanisms for simulations.

Year Two: Analyze public perception of national land use and environmental change in

Taiwan. Construct a public perception questionnaire framework based on literature

review and conduct field interviews during the field questionnaire survey. Examine the

relationship between land change perception, disaster experiences, coping behaviors,

coping strategies, and strategic opportunities with Path Analysis to identify the

differences in public perception among high, medium, and low land use change areas.

Propose national land use change management strategies based on public feedback and

opinions.

Year Three: Select agricultural development areas as research sites as per the National

Land Use Planning Act intent. Simulate land use change under distinct agricultural

development resilience strategies executed with specific agricultural development area

plans. Investigate and compare the appropriateness of agricultural development areas

15

and strategies under different scenarios. Source scenario input data from complimentary

sub-project land use change simulation results. Compare land use distributions and

ecosystem services yielded under different circumstances. Assess the National Land

Use Planning Act effects on farmland recovery areas, agricultural development area

locations, and ecosystem service recovery using the reference year 1970. Discuss

proposed national land use management resilience models.

Sub-Project 4 will propose a land use management resilience model to evaluate the

effects of current land use practices and the National Land Use Planning Act. Research

experiences of the Taiwanese situation will be shared with the international community

via the Global Land Programme.

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Sub-Project 5: Assessment of Land Use Strategies for Economic and

Environmental Sustainable Development: Applications Linking

Global and Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Models

Associate Prof. Huey-Lin Lee

Land resources play myriad roles in human economic activities—they are key inputs

for the production of diverse goods and services and offer free ecosystem services to

support social amenities. Economic development shapes the pattern of land use change

while sustainable development of the economy and society requires well managed and

functioning land resources and ecosystem services. Following the International Council

for Science (ICSU) call for academic research on the construction of Integrated Spatial

Decision Support Systems, Sub-Project 5 will integrate economic activities and land

use change in order to conduct a systemic assessment for national land use policy.

Taiwan has become both biophysically and economically susceptible to global changes

due to a high dependency on exports while increasing economic globalization and

urbanization intensifies competition for land resources. Given the existing land

endowment system, strategic management practices take the economic efficiency and

practicality into account while reallocating land resources. Since land management

policy guides the economy towards efficient allocation land uses, and high

specialization in economic production implies that manufacturing sectors are inter-

dependent on one another, inter-industry and inter-sectoral dependencies must be

recognized when resource allocation decisions are being made. To address this, Sub-

Project 5 will develop a computable soft-linked global general equilibrium-modeling

module for Taiwan to describe the interconnection between domestic and international

consumer groups, the manufacturing sector, and resultant land use competition.

Land management policy is crucial in guiding the economy towards efficient allocation

of various land uses. The high specialization in economic production implies that

manufacturing sectors are inter-dependent on one another. Therefore, it is important to

recognize the inter-industry dependencies between sectors when resource allocation

decisions are being made.The developed module, Integrated Spatial Decision Support

System for Taiwan (ISDSS-TW), will serve as a land use policy assessment tool for

both public and private sectors. The ISDSS-TW will inform coping strategies to

simulated economic growth and land use change consequences under various scenarios,

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including those that reflect global and national changes in the biophysical, social, and

the economic environment. The objectives of this three-year sub-project are as follows:

Year One: Develop an environmentally extended Input-Output Account with

incorporated Input-Output Tables and Taiwan Land Inventory Data. Identify the

interdependences between manufacturing sectors that contribute to the Taiwanese

economy and associated sectorial demands for land resources. Identify land use

hotspots, the “key sectors” in driving economic growth, and contributors to the

derivation of land multiplier effects for all sectors.

Year Two-Three: Identify sectors that are suitable for cooperation based on indicators

from the developed approach. Analyze various scenarios such as world trade regime

changes, global environmental changes, and domestic social and economic

development in response to exogenous and internal perturbations with the module

including economy-wide assessment model, particularly the computable general

equilibrium model. Offer insights for land management policy in the contemporary

economy of specialization.

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Sub-Project 6: Interactions between Taiwan’s Land Use/Cover

Change, Regional Atmospheric and Hydro-Meteorological Modeling,

and Large-Scale Climate Variability

Assistant Prof. Chia-Jeng Chen, Associate Prof. Jehn-Yih Juang

Assist Prof. Min-Hui Lo

Land use/cover changes (LUCC) can affect the atmospheric, climatic, and hydrological

systems at both global and regional scales and can aggravate natural hazard events such

as flooding. Although Taiwan is committed to sustainable management, the country has

recently undergone rapid LUCC while the number of intense hydro-meteorological

disaster events per decade is increasing. In this context, Sub-Project 6 will disclose the

implicit interactions between LUCC in Taiwan and regional atmospheric and hydro-

meteorological conditions. By employing broad-spectrum analyses such as analytical,

empirical/statistical, and dynamical modeling, large-scale climate variability will also

be addressed. Separately developed research directions at distinct spatial and temporal

scales will synergistically answer the following questions:

1. Has LUCC altered local/regional weather systems (e.g., convective systems

in metropolitan areas)?

2. What is the underlying mechanism of LUCC that influences atmospheric

conditions and land-surface fluxes (and/or vice versa)?

3. Can any large-scale circulation patterns that correlate with LUCC-related

variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, sensible and latent heat, and

vegetation index), potentially driving the long-term LUCC, be identified?

4. If it is possible to further hypothesize the influence of climate variability on

LUCC, is it possible to depict the trend and variation of those transient

atmospheric processes in the long run?

5. Is there any secondary or tertiary impact from LUCC to other environmental

systems (e.g., watershed- and metro-scale hydrology)?

Future interactions between LUCC and atmospheric dynamics under climatic change

will also be quantified in order to leverage discussion and findings regarding the above

questions. The objectives of this three-year sub-project are as follows:

Year One: Analytically and statistically analyze the relationship between LUCC and the

dynamics of thermal environment at target weather stations in Taiwan from 1950 to

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2010. Empirically analyze (e.g., EOF, SVD, and composites) the correlation between

climate indices (i.e., teleconnections) and the LUCC-related variables at the target

stations and extended watersheds.

Year Two: Empirically analyze complimentary sub-project dynamic LUCC statistics

provided and discuss correlations between the LUCC-related variables and LUCC

statistics. Prepare offline, uncoupled simulations (with prescribed forces) on WRF,

Noah, WRF-Hydro, and SWMM to understand first-order impacts of LUCC on changes

in surface temperature, precipitation, fluxes, and hydrological responses.

Year Three: Run coupled WRF-Noah, WRF-Hydro, and WRF-SWMM simulations to

explore the relationships and underlying mechanisms between LUCC, atmospheric

convection, and hydrological responses. Integrate findings into prediction model of

future LUCC and atmospheric dynamics.

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Sub-Project 7: Theorization of De-Territorialized Environmental

Risk Assemblage under the Context of East Asian Industrial Land

Process- a Scalar Perspective of “Built Environment in the Urban”

and “Earth Force in the Region”

Prof. Shiuh-Shen Chien

Territorialized and de-territorialized environmental risks (ERs) are important research

topics in many industrializing and industrialized countries. Existing literature, however,

mainly focuses on territorialized ERs which are geographically near to current risks in

study areas versus de-territorialized ERs which are geographically distant to current

risks via transportation mechanisms. De-territorialized ERs cannot be understood

merely through the analysis of risk materials themselves. Instead, de-territorialized ERs

are better understood as ER assemblages consisting of risk materials, risk transport

mediators, and fragmented governance of these risk materials and mediators. Sub-

Project 7 gives insights into the lesser studied de-territorialized ERs.

Categorized into at least two types of mediators, de-territorialized ERs are either: (1)

man-made transportation mechanisms such as infrastructure, and (2) natural

transportation mechanism such as wind. De-territorialized ERs are discussed in terms

of three analytical dimensions including spatiotemporal which refer to ER air column

altitudes, subterranean depths, seasonal variations, as well as the rapid dynamics

involved during explosions; ER transportation and formation mediators such as the

differences and commonalities of transformation and formation processes; and social-

spatial processes such as both built-up structures in the urban environment and the

strength of geophysical processes in regional contexts.

A theoretical framework of ER assemblages provides an opportunity to explore the

different political and social environmental scenarios, the intermediaries of ER

transmission, and the various institutional advantages and limitations of ER

management. Sub-Project 7 examines a theoretical framework of ER assemblages by

referring to two cases from Taiwan and China that have undertaken similar de-

territorialized ER management in recent years. While Taiwan possessed a more

government more accountable for its actions, China’s strong central authority can

coordinate large-scale administrative measures with or without popular consensus.

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The Integrated Structure and Work Allocation

This integrated interdisciplinary project addresses a variety of topics, including: policy,

economics, urban studies, and rural studies as well as the dynamics of slopes, coastal

areas, atmospheric conditions, and land use patterns. Sub-project 6 is responsible for

environmental data collection and database building. The responsibilities of main

project include building the land use database and rendering the figures, which include

satellite imagery and both digitized and non-digitized data. Sub-project 5 is responsible

for the socioeconomic database. Sub-project 7 is responsible for organizing the policy

database, which includes both domestic and international relevant policies. The main

project and sub-project 1 supports the development of research tools like GIS, satellite

imagery software, statistical software and the land-use change model. The primary

responsibilities of each sub-project and the main project are depicted as an integrated

and collaborative project structure shown below.

Integrated Project Structure

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III. Research Schedule

Expectations for completed work are as follows:

Year 1

Complete literature review on dynamic changes of land use

Collate Taiwan land use data by year

Model overall and explicit land use change dynamics via GIS-based models

Conduct interactive verification of each sub-project’s land use change driving

factors

Year 2 (Current Stage)

Complete literature review on the Conservation of Land Use its Effects at

Small region extent (CLUE-s)

Verify land use and driving factors analysis model

Analyze uncertainties of land use and driving factor analysis model

Select land use combination scenarios with three methods (use AUC>0.6 as

threshold, apply Simulated Annealing to select land use types, and use the

combination of highest AUC values as objective function)

Use CLUE-s to analyze land use types selected by three methods and establish

suitability maps to forecast future land use scenarios

Model land use uncertainty and verify the future land use simulation results

Optimize the GIS-based CLUE-s model

Build the GIS-based land use uncertainty quantification model

Year 3

Select specific study regions, analyze dynamic changes and driving factors

Conduct interactive verification of driving factors identified by each sub-

project

Conduct CLUE-s analysis with the above mentioned three methods to simulate

future land use scenarios

Verify the forecasted land use scenarios

Build the holistic GIS-module

Recommend a resilient land use strategy for Taiwan

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Conclusion

The Land Resources Core Project has completed a literature review and ground theory

study, established a database, and completed an investigation into the GIS-based land

use change model dynamics in its first year. Driving factors and various scenarios will

be examined in detail with the application of different models following the project

timeline.

Outcomes will significantly contribute to several areas, including: academia, policy

deliberation, and the international promotion of land use research. Sub-project teams

will communicate and share results at scheduled meetings, workshops, and seminars

for maximum research integration, consensus, and impact. Domestic and international

feedback on shared findings and modules will aid in formulating amendments suitable

for practical approaches.

Taiwan’s research contribution will demonstratively promote practical and sustainable

development within The Future Earth paradigm. The Global Land Programme Taipei

Nodal Office will present its findings to the GLP committee and international GLP

fellows at GLP international conferences and workshops. Shared experiences will aid

in identifying potential or emerging trends within the international community.