Gold Report 28AUG11

8/4/2019 Gold Report 28AUG11

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Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

$35(Aug, 1970)

Gold Monthly (Log Scale): 60-70 Year Expanding Triangle?

Sometimes it¶s ³fun´ to play around with the super long term view. The bottom line for Gold is that we¶veseen a series of multi-decade ³corrective´ waves grouped together. Given that, I¶m stuck with the conceptof a huge triangle. Because of the power of the <C> Wave, we need to seriously consider the concept of the ³expanding´ triangle. And, it¶s scary. The implications are that, after all the bad debts get written off

in the next few decades, and after all the Baby Boomers are gone, America willexperience a massive hyper-inflationary phase.

(Nov, 1974)$191

$101(Aug, 1976)

(Jan, 1980)$873

<A>

<B>$260

(Feb, 2001)?

<C>2012-2016

<D>13 year move down

2025-2029

<E>

<A> WAVE = 10 Years<B> WAVE = 21 Years<C> WAVE = 11-15 Years*<D> WAVE = 13 Years (Fibbo Alternation with <B>)

* <C> Wave can be equal to <A> or can be as long as <A+B>/2




Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

As the late great Randy ³Macho Man´ Savage used to say: ³And the beat goes on«yeah.´

Gold has been amazing in the last few years in that it has held to this perfect trend channel.It has had plenty of moments of testing the lower band, but this week we get to see the yellowmetal test the upper band. The whole ³look´ of the pattern still looks like a ³symmetrical´

formation, though the potential (G) wave has developed into an ³expanding´ triangle, giving themarket the ³blow off´ look.

This market has a very toppy feel and it appears poised for some consolidation,but it¶s not a longer term ³sell´ yet«

³Unfortunately, bulls won¶t know it¶s a ³sell´ until it breaks the lower dashed blue line, which is a long way below.

- X -

- Y -( I )

( A )

( B )

( C )

( D )

( E )

( F )

( G )

( H )( G )

( H )

( I )

REPRINTED from 8/21/2011




Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

Last week, it was noted that ³this market has a very toppy feel and it appears poised for someconsolidation, but it¶s not a longer term sell yet« ³ Indeed, Gold hit the top of this wellestablished trend channel and then sold off. Market participants should expects several weeksof congestive price action. Given the violent and sharp move off the high, I would expect to see

a contracting triangle of some kind.

- X -

- Y -( I )

( A )

( B )

( C )

( D )

( E )

( F )

( G )

( H )




Gold - Daily Continuation (Log Scale) with RSI

Maybe we¶re seeing some smaller scale RSI divergence on the Daily chart. I¶ve highlighted herewhat looks like an ³expanding triangle´ pattern up from the $1,308 low.

1308

( F )

??

³a´

³b´

³c´

³d´

³e´

$1,478 Important longer ter m su pport

REPRINTED from 8/21/2011




Gold - Daily Continuation (Log Scale) with RSI

Last week¶s action confirms that a wave completed at $1,909. I believe it to bean Intermediate (G) wave of a large/complex ³symmetrical´ pattern. That ideawould suggest a corrective (H) followed by one last wave higher before a muchlarger pattern is completed.

Over the next several weeks, the $1,643 and $1,576 should be support levels for gold. It¶s easy to visually a choppy/whipsaw range as both those who are longputs and calls probably lose money in the next few months.

The ³scariest´ trade on the board would be to go short calls and puts--³W hat kind of idiot would be short volatility in this market?!´

The most uncomfortable trade is usually the correct one.

1308

( F )

³a´

³b´

³c´

³d´

( G )³e´

1909

$1,6 43

$1,5 76

Gap ( H )




Gold - OCT Futures (30 Min.): Weekly Resistance

A gold bear could make an argument that was a ³five wave´ move down from the highs. The beginning and end of thestructure are a bit ³messy´ to jump to that conclusion. Nevertheless, the market decline was impressive enough that shortinginto the $1,834 - $1,870 zone seems like a worthwhile endeavor.

$1,8 54 = Classic Chart resistance



DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the author¶s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in

this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, butit is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOL ATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider

your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle<I>or <A> = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1³ or "a" = Minor 1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

P LEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA- W EEK AND INTRA- DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGS P OT.COM

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Gold Report 28AUG11