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Gordon Chap. 5Hypotheses
•Predictions
•“Models”---maybe a conceptual flow chart
•Strong inference
•experiments
Gordon Chap. 5: Hypotheses“It is my hypothesis that…”
Hypotheses Force you to:
•Think in terms of predictions
•Think of ways to disprove a claim (e.g., the null hypothesis)
•Makes your goals explicit
•Guides reviewers to core effort
Models: “structured abstractions”
Quantitative models
Analog models
• Organize complexity
• Point to questions/problems/hypotheses
• Organize data and results
• Present results
Experiments
• Don’t think just in terms of “laboratory experiments”
• Lab vs field
• Quant vs. qualitative
• Model experiments
“Finding Experiments”
• Natural or “Found” Experiments
• Weaker “control”
• “natural trajectory” experiment
• “natural snapshot” experiments
Booth: Chap. 5 From Problems to Sources
• Need something of a plan for sources
• Primary
• Secondary
• Tertiary
• Reliability screen
• Experts as sources
• Bibliographical trails
What you find
Avoid concluding early:
• Ouy! “Nothing new to say, there goes my project!”
• Question the results (answer may be “they’re pretty good!”)
• Do it differently
• Do it better
Chap. 6: Using SourcesRead for a Problem• Stating / Clarifying the problem (look for
weaknesses, chance to re-state, or challenge)
Read for an Argument• Use “model” arguments from similar research---
BORROW THE LOGIC! (that’s not plagiarism)
Read for Evidence• Careful, complete citation• Collect “data” from your sources; • critically assess;
Chap 7 Making Good Arguments
• claim --- reason --- evidence– Base claims on reasons, base reasons on
evidence
• Acknowledge and respond to alternatives– Answer as may questions and doubts you can
imagine (but where do you stop?)
• Avoid “inappropriate evidence” (p. 124
• Avoid “comfortable simplicity” (p. 125)
Chap. 15: Illustrations, graphs, tables
• Careful use will enhance your work.
• Conceptual flow chart / diagram
• Lists and tables
• Maps
• photos
Natural Events System
Human use System
Hurricane
Flood
Earthquake
Tsunami
wildfire
Populations
Agriculture
Settlement
Transportation
Housing
Natural Hazard Impacts Response
Prevention: modify the event
(Dams, levees, cloud seeding, etc.)
Magnitude, frequency, duration, extent
Adapt: reduce human vulnerability:
(building codes, land use regulations, etc.)
economic loss
Spread / Share the Loss: Disaster aid,
insurance
Vulnerability
Growth in the American West
• More “boom” than “bust”
The Riebsame-Travis* Scale of Climate Change Severity
*Taking its rightful place among the great hazard scales: Richter, Mercalli, Saffir-Simpson, and Fujita! Named after moi and my previous name: two names sound better than one.
Level 1: perhaps autonomous adaptation will work as performance standards are occasionally up-dated.
Level 2: Targeted adaptation to specifically-recognized climate challenges.
Level 3: Adapting to climate change as a natural hazard.
Level 4: Who knows?
The conceptual structure of the International Land Science Program
See:
GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.
Driving Forces
•Population Growth
•Job growth
•Per capita housing growth (households, house size)
•Low density, auto-oriented, “pastoral” suburban culture
Enabling Forces
•Transportation network
•Pro-development / growth local policies
•Flex-time, home office; retirement; and footloose businesses
Shaping Forces
•Transportation network
•Public lands
•Recreational features
•Local tax structure
Pat
tern
ed R
egio
nal O
utco
mes
• NEW LISTING!Canyon Ranch, Beaverhead County. The 1,270 acre Canyon Ranch represents an unusual opportunity to acquire 3 +/- miles of one of the finer spring creek fisheries in the west. The structural compound is well built, technologically advanced and comfortable for accommodating a single owner or a multitude of guests. With four miles of improved horse trails, miles of fishing, a world class trout lake and abundant wildlife, this is a recreational treasure complimented by a working cattle operation. Settled in a very scenic canyon adjacent to vast federal ground, the ranch is positioned in a relatively undiscovered part of western Montana. $12,000,000