Governance and agglomeration: a European perspective Prof. Alan Harding Presentation to RTPI seminar on New Evidence and Opportunities for Strategic Spatial

Governance and agglomeration: a European perspective

Prof. Alan HardingPresentation to RTPI seminar on New Evidence

and Opportunities for Strategic Spatial Planning in the UK, Manchester, 2 December 2010

http://www.manchester.ac.uk/

On the one hand....

• City-regions are locomotives of the national economies within which they are situated, in that they are the sites of dense masses of interrelated economic activities that also typically have high levels of productivity by reason of their jointly-generated agglomeration economies and their innovative potentials

Scott and Storper, 2003• Metropolitan spaces are becoming, more and more, the

adequate ecosystems of advanced technology and economy…. [T]he decrease of communication costs does not by itself lead to a spreading and diffusion of wealth and power; on the contrary, it entails their polarization.

Veltz, 2005

The ‘new’ agglomeration

• Literally, means ‘gathering together in a mass’• Old urban (economic) geography concept with 2

competing traditions• ‘Localisation economies’, benefits experienced by firms from co-location

(More recent versions; New Industrial Districts, Porter on ‘clusters’)• ‘Urbanisation economies’, benefits derived by workers and households as well

as firms from city size, density and variety (More recent versions; Florida on ‘the creative class’, Storper/Venables on urban ‘buzz’)

• Associated with key observations e.g. productivity benefits of population growth, urban wage premium (within cities and on departure)

• Recent rediscovery by economists who had previously ignored ‘increasing returns to scale’

• Has become basis of new work on, e.g. ‘spillover effects’, ‘effective density’, attempts to explain why falling transport costs should be associated with concentration rather than dispersal of economic activity

Towards an ‘archipelago economy’

• The knowledge economy and the ‘new’ agglomeration is argued, across soc. sci.s, to have shifted the spatial division of labour, due to:

• Falling trade and communication costs• Changing organisational structure of firms (flattened

hierarchies, outsourcing, linkages, proximity) • Risk, knowledge-intensive production, density of suppliers

and continued importance of face-to-face communications• Changes in labour markets & household formation patterns;

insurance against under- & unemployment, ‘buzz’ in areas with rich, dense labour markets

• Housing, capital accumulation and barriers to exit from key metropolitan regions

.. and its implications?

• Big, dense, diverse, well-connected city-regions increasingly drive regional, and by implication national, economic performance

• But the world is getting spikier: performance gap between city-regions is growing; stretching urban hierarchies

• What’s the evidence?

THE WORLD WAS ALWAYS SPIKY

@

http://gecon.yale.edu/data/Spain/Spain_3dmap2.JPG

THE 90s/’NOUGHTIES’ BOOM

MADE IT SPIKIER

0 75 150

miles

ParisParisParisParisParisParisParisParisParis

ViennaBratislava

LyonLyonLyonLyonLyonLyonLyonLyonLyon

ToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouse

MontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellierMontpellier

Aix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-Marseille

NantesNantesNantesNantesNantesNantesNantesNantesNantes

LilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLille

BristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristol

Brussels

Luxembourg

Amsterdam

Madrid

Bern

London

BirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirminghamBirmingham

CardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiff

BarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelona

ZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragozaZaragoza

DusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorfDusseldorf

TorinoTorinoTorinoTorinoTorinoTorinoTorinoTorinoTorino

KolnKolnKolnKolnKolnKolnKolnKolnKoln

GroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGroningenGross Value Added 2006 (at basic prices)Figures in millions of Euros

50,000 to 175,000 (5)20,000 to 50,000 (23)13,000 to 20,000 (23)8,000 to 13,000 (20)4,900 to 10,500 (17)

0 to 4,900 (19)

© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved© Crown Copyright. All rights reservedLicence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.Licence number: 100019918. 2009.

0 50 100

miles







LilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleLilleBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrusselsBrussels

LuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourg

AmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdamAmsterdam

MadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadrid

BernBernBernBernBernBernBernBernBern

LondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondon


BristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolBristolCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiffCardiff

ManchesterManchesterManchesterManchesterManchesterManchesterManchesterManchesterManchester



Change in GVA, 1996 - 2006Figures in millions of Euros

8,000 to 30,000 (5)6,000 to 8,000 (7)3,000 to 6,000 (12)2,000 to 3,000 (20)1,000 to 2,000 (21)

600 to 1,000 (17)300 to 600 (9)

0 to 300 (5)

(c) Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.Licence number 100019918 (2010)

0 25 50

miles

DublinDublinDublinDublinDublinDublinDublinDublinDublin


GalwayGalwayGalwayGalwayGalwayGalwayGalwayGalwayGalway

BelfastBelfastBelfastBelfastBelfastBelfastBelfastBelfastBelfast

CorkCorkCorkCorkCorkCorkCorkCorkCork







Gross Value Added, 2006 (2000 prices)Figures in millions of Euros

30,000 to 56,000 (1)13,000 to 30,000 (1)11,600 to 13,000 (1)11,000 to 11,600 (1)10,000 to 11,000 (2)5,000 to 10,000 (2)


0 25 50

miles












GVA Change, 1996 - 2006Figures in millions of Euros

20,000 to 30,000 (1)8,000 to 20,000 (1)7,000 to 8,000 (1)5,600 to 7,000 (1)5,500 to 5,600 (1)5,300 to 5,500 (1)3,000 to 5,300 (1)2,000 to 3,000 (1)


0 100

miles

200

Lisbon

Madrid

Valencia


Barcelona

Toulouse

Montpellier

Aix-Marseille

Gross Value Added 2006Figures in millions of Euros

36,000 to 175,000 (3)21,000 to 36,000 (9)12,500 to 21,000 (9)9,300 to 12,500 (9)4,700 to 9,300 (10)

0 to 4,700 (10)

© Crow n Copyright. All rights reservedLicence number: 100019918. 2009.

0 50 100

miles







ValenciaValenciaValenciaValenciaValenciaValenciaValenciaValenciaValencia

LisbonLisbonLisbonLisbonLisbonLisbonLisbonLisbonLisbon

MadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadridMadrid


8,000 to 50,000 (4)4,000 to 8,000 (9)3,000 to 4,000 (7)2,000 to 3,000 (6)1,500 to 2,000 (4)1,000 to 1,500 (7)

450 to 1,000 (8)100 to 450 (5)(c) Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.

Licence number 100019918 (2010)

0 50 100

miles

London

Copenhagen

Vienna

Bratislava




Leeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-Bradford

NewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastle

GlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburgh





ToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseToulouseAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-MarseilleAix-Marseille

Dublin



Gross Value Added 2006(Figures in millions of Euros)

36,000 to 175,000 (10)18,000 to 36,000 (23)10,500 to 18,000 (24)7,000 to 10,500 (24)4,900 to 7,000 (28)

0 to 4,900 (24)

© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.License number 100019918. 2009.

0 50 100

miles


LondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondon


NewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastleNewcastle

Leeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-BradfordLeeds-Bradford




GlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowGlasgowEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburghEdinburgh












14,000 to 50,000 (4)7,000 to 14,000 (7)4,000 to 7,000 (19)2,500 to 4,000 (16)1,500 to 2,500 (23)

600 to 1,500 (28)0 to 600 (29)

-700 to 0 (7)


Total productivity: Agglomeration estimates

Nuts 2 Nuts 3 Nuts 3 Large Cities

Full Sample

13.57%** 12.54%*** 4.19%

1980s 8.34%** 5.05% 3.52%

1990s -1.99% -6.77% -1.82%

2000s 10.26%*** 6.80%* 10.46%***

SPIKINESS IS INTRA- AS WELL AS INTER-CITY REGIONAL

© Crown Copy right. All rights reserv ed. Licence No 100019918 2010

Ashton-under-Ly ne

Dukinf ield

Oldham

Stockport

Rochdale

Altrincham

ManchesterAirport

Bury

Wy thenshaweHospital

ManchesterCity Centre

Traf f ord Centre

Boltontown centre

Middlebrook

10

Wigantown centre

0 5

miles

0 4.5 9

Total employment in 2008 - all sectors

1,000 to 75,248 (229)500 to 999 (186)200 to 499 (483)100 to 199 (381)

1 to 99 (367)

© Crown Copy right. All rights reserv ed. Licence No 100019918 2010

Rochdale

Cheadle

Woodf ord

ManchesterAirport

Swinton

Heywood

ManchesterCity Centre

Traf f ordCentre

10

Middlebrook

0 5

miles

0 4.5 9

Change in employment 2003-2008 in - all sectors

1,000 to 11,827 (33)500 to 1,000 (39)250 to 500 (67)

0 to 250 (644)-250 to 0 (684)-500 to -250 (98)

-1,000 to -500 (52)-5,941 to -1,000 (29)

AND THE BUST IS MAKING IT SPIKIER STILL

Recession, recovery, spikiness

• Areas and communities suffering worst are those that benefited least from the boom years, i.e.

• Places lacking a ‘knowledge economy’ and/or ‘knowledge workers’

• The disconnected spaces in erstwhile booming places

BUT WHAT ABOUT GOVERNANCE?

Metropolitan/city-regional productivity and governance

• Much generalised (critical) analysis of state restructuring and ‘neo-liberalism’ but limited literature on meso-level governance and economic change

• Work of Cheshire and Magrini (2008) demonstrates statistical association between economic performance and existence of metropolitan/city-regional tier /unit of governance

• But treats governance as a ‘black box’

• Little appreciation of what metropolitan/city-regional governance arrangements actually do and how they relate to other scales of governance/market-based decision-making

• Hence the CAEE project: fusing of (a) advanced econometric assessment of importance of agglomeration and (b) political science approach to the characteristics of metropolitan/city-regional governance

Metro-complexity

• Huge variation in degrees of institutionalisation of metro areas/city-regions and in their autonomy, executive capacity, political influence

• Key challenge: ‘going with the grain’ of the ‘new’ agglomeration rather than resisting it. Fusing ‘competitiveness’ policies (often non-spatial) with (usually spatial) ‘cohesion’ policies

• ‘Forms of [metropolitan and city-regional] governance.. can be interpreted as partial, and inevitably incomplete, attempts to assemble the capacity, autonomy and forms of influence that make it possible to deal more effectively with the challenges that new patterns of economic change throw up.’ [CAEE final report]

‘Best practice’

• On basis of case studies, ‘ideal type’ metro/city-regional arrangements have..

• Supportive national context

• Strong technical capacity (analytical and delivery) at appropriate scale

• Significant influence at regional/national scales

• Strong horizonal networks with key public and private institutions

• A compelling and broadly-shared ‘narrative’

• Strong leadership and co-ordinating capacity

• Ability to recognise and deal with the environmental and social implications of realising its strategic ambitions

SO WHAT FOR UK SPATIAL POLICY?

The coalition government’s spatial agenda

• Aspects of ‘rebalancing’ potentially supportive of ‘2nd division’ metro areas/city-regions

• No more (formal) sub-national spatial planning; national development framework promised but timing uncertain

• But effect of public sector cuts likely to work against spatial rebalancing and LEPs likely to favour localities with market advantages

• Rate capping plus incentives to LAs for new commercial and residential development will strain LEP relations

• LG resource review potentially deepens inter-LA competition

Documents

Governance and agglomeration: a European perspective Prof. Alan Harding Presentation to RTPI seminar on New Evidence and Opportunities for Strategic Spatial