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Governance Innovation for Security and Development
Design Meeting
Video TeleconferenceFort Bragg, NC and Mountain View, CA
17 October 2013 - 1000-1300 Pacific
AgendaO IntroductionsO Discussion on goalsO MethodologiesO Working structure
O Roles of working groupsO Sponsor communications
O Certificate updatesO SSDCOO ROLO GovernanceO Human behavior
O ConferencesO ISA - MarchO PSOTEW - 13-16 January 2014
Washington DCO Funding opportunities
O Minerva fellowship
O Topic area discussionsO Governance, Safe and secure
environment, rule of law (Karen and Charles)
O Sustainable economy and infrastructure, Social well-being (Marc and Maria)
O Homeland integration (Paula)O Human behavior, Tech enablers (Mark
and Margarita)O Specify goals for project deliverables:
O reports, literature reviews, surveys, case studies, articles, manuscripts, web-based materials, tools
O Identify timelines for identified projects
O plenary (ies)O monthly seminarsO surveyO 38G analysis
O Other
IntroductionsFort BraggO BG Hugh Van RoosenO COL Terry Lindon, IMSGO COL Jay WolffO COL Rich ThewesO COL Rob LevalleyO COL Mike Barger
(USACAPOC)O LTC Hanhauser (USACAPOC)O LTC Scotty Lene
(USACAPOC)O LTC Jon Mapley-BrittleO MAJ Mike ChagarisO MAJ Tony Vacha
Mountain ViewO Karen Guttieri, Principal Investigator,
Naval Postgraduate SchoolO Marc Ventresca, Naval Postgraduate
SchoolO Paula Philbin, Naval Postgraduate
SchoolO Maria-Dubravka Pineda, Naval
Postgraduate SchoolO Herman Semes, Naval Postgraduate
School (22nd Century Contract)O Margarita Quihuis, StanfordO Mark Nelson, StanfordO Charles Palmares, StanfordO Charlie Jenks, 351 CACOMO LTC Joel Smith, 351 CACOMO MAJ Brendan McAlary, 1st Training
Brigade, USACAPOC
Goals
Function: Support Civil Military Operations (CMO)Conduct Civil Affairs Operations (CAO)
Core Tasks:• Population Resource Control (PRC)• Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (FHA)• Nation Assistance (NA)• Support to Civil Administration (SCA)• Civil Information Management (CIM)
Civil Affairs Team1. Civil Reconnaissance2. Key Leader Engagement3. Project Management
CMOC1. Key Leader Engagement2. Project Management3. CIM
Civilian Liaison Team1. Civil Reconnaissance2. Key Leader Engagement3. Civil Military Support Elements
(CMSE)
Functional Experts1. Civil Reconnaissance2. Key Leader Engagement3. Project Management4. Advisor
CMO Staff (S/G 9)1. Principle CMO Advisor2. CMO Planner3. Key Leader Engagement4. Project Tracking
Civil Affairs Planning Team (CAPT)1. CMO Planner2. Project Tracking
Civil Affairs Functional Areas
• Public Health & Welfare• Infrastructure• Economic Stability• Rule of Law• Governance• Public Education & Information
Capabilities:
Army Civil Affairs (FM 3-57 2011)
Civil Affairs
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Terms of ArtDoctrine Task Framework / “IMSG”
Governance GovernanceInfrastructureEconomic stability
Sustainable econ development“economy and infrastructure”
Public health and welfarePublic education, information
Social well-being“essential humanitarian services”
Public order Safe and secure environment“Civil security”
Justice and reconciliation“Rule of law”
Rule of law
[ ] “Homeland Integration”
Statement of Work1. Research
O cross-disciplinary team …in an analytic dialogue producing academic reports, articles and monographs on military support to governance…
O will consider throughout the changing environment and information communications technologies...
O analysis on human behavior dynamicsO technological enablers of peace and stability
operationsO military governance areas
2. 38G 3. Educational value
Methodologies
Certificate Updates
O SSDCOO 90 Day Program of InstructionO Phase 1: Distributed (6 weeks, reading
assignments, online lectures, discussion)O Phase 2: Resident (intensive 4 week
academic workload)O Phase 3: Distributed (2 weeks, completion of
papers)
O 12 graduate creditsO GP3100 Global Challenges and GovernanceO GP3200 Security and DevelopmentO GP3300 Analytical Methods in Support of Stability
Operations
O Certification StatusO NPS Certificate and Official Transcript O USACAPOC (A) Advanced Operations Course (AOC)
certificationO PKSOI/AWC and Naval War College onsite at NPS
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Certificate Programs
Rule of Law Program Overview
Concurrent courses 1. GP 3110 Legitimacy, Law and Society
O Rules, role of legitimacy, social context
2. Comparative Legal SystemsO Legal traditions, culture of lawfulness
3. Public Order and AccountabilityO Institutions to provide physical security and
rebuilding/creating state legitimacy
O Intensive, interdisciplinary, integrated, faculty-led environment
O Connecting themes and multiple perspectives on common issues
O No counterparts to other courses at NPS in terms of content 12
Human Behavior Dynamics
O The Human DimensionO analytic skills, and general understanding of the problem for
Military Information Support Operations (MISO) and others. Students will survey relevant social science literatures (e.g., psychology, sociology, anthropology) and military doctrine to develop a robust understanding of human behavior dynamics and their own roles, across the spectrum of conflict.
O InfluenceO methods for addressing the challenges of information and
communication in influence operations. Students will be introduced to communications theory, cultural considerations, influence methods, and media.
O Measures of EffectivenessO tools for evaluating both performance and effectiveness,
familiarity with ongoing efforts, and skill in both analysis and communication of research findings.
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Conferences andRelated Projects
PSOTEWISA
Minerva
SectorsResearch priorities and ideas
Research IdeasTransitional Regimes – Interim Governments
Direction of State FormationO Top-down and bottom-up state formation
Development as a Product of Political and Economic InstitutionsO Development through reform in governance and markets
Authoritarian Regimes and Violent Non-State Actors as Community StakeholdersO Exclusive and inclusive governance processesO Participatory and deliberate democratic processesO Emphasis on authoritarian regimes (e.g. Syria and China) and
VNSAs (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist organizations)
Degree of International Authority
Interim Governments
Revolutionary Provisional
(Transition managed by counter-elite)
Power-sharing
(Transition is managed by ancient regime and
opposition)
International
(Transition is managed by international actors)
Incumbent Caretaker
(Transition is managed by elites of the ancient regime)
Administrative Authority
(Domestic organs have full legislative authority, international body has reserve
power and is the main administrative authority)
Executive Authority
(International body has full executive authority; legislative
and executive authority is shared with domestic powers)
Supervisory Authority
(International transitional authority has full legislative/ executive & administrative
authority)
Five Ecologies of Transitional Politics
Hostile factors Reconciled Factions
Few Many Few Many
Coherent Factors
3rd Ecology: Angola Bosnia Cambodia Cypress Georgia W. Sahara
1st Ecology El Salvador Namibia Tajikistan
Incoherent Factors
4th Ecology Brecho (Bosnia)E. Slavonia (Croatia) Rwanda
5th Ecology Bosnia II Congo Dem Rep Congo Liberia Sierra Leone Somalia
2nd Ecology East Timor GuatemalaHaitiMozambique
Michael Doyle - War Making and Peace Making:The United Nations’ Post-Cold War Record
Study IdeasBehavioral Analysis in CounterinsurgencyO Behavioral analysis of authoritarian regimes and
violent non-state actors (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist orgs) vis-à-vis COIN
O Hypothesis: predicts a significant and positive relationship between a modified model of community-driven development and the reduction in conflict and promotion in development
O Methodology: test various models of diplomacy, governance, and rule of law; controlled field experiments and computer simulation
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USIP and PKSOI Guiding Principles for Stabilization and Reconstruction
2010 QDR: Civil Affairs “the vanguard” of Dept. of Defense support to Rule of Law
Study IdeasCompensation Payments
Text: Rule of Law
Rule of Law Through Formal and Informal Judicial InstitutionsO Merits and challenges of rule of law through formal judicial
institutions, informal and customary laws, and religious codesO Second and third order effects with respect to human rights and
conflict resolution
Constitutional Design in Post-Conflict StatesO Merits and challenges of “accommodation” and “integration” as
approaches in constitutional designO Second and third order effects on security and development
Infrastructure & economic development (Pineda & Ventresca) – draft p1
Research overview: ‘Infrastructure’ is a multi-disciplinary field with relevant focus on planning, policy, socio-technical systems, innovation and risk. The links with economic development are several: O Large-scale systems project management and oversight,
due diligence for financial, human capitalsO Alignment of large projects to build capacity in local
firms/SMEs and supply chains/value chainsO Management of innovation and entrepreneurial activity in
support of broader economic and societal/well-being goals
O Risk management across the range of potential risks – physical, material, cyber, governance/ethics
Infrastructure & economic development, p 2Research programme for GISD / CA communityO Produce ‘translation research’ matrix to guide our research and
engagement with the CA communityO Develop integrative literature review that digests ‘infrastructure’
conceptions and theory, compare/contrast with relevance for policy and CA practice
O Define academic research on specific (infrastructure) topic to produce working paper -> journal article, edited workshop proceedings, conference presentations and/or panel. Sample research topics: ‘Alternative energy generation and delivery’; Community-based models of water & sanitation capacity’; ‘System building’ across specific infrastructure domains, e.g., Lessons from off-grid electricity in Africa for community-building.
O Convene ‘Think Tanks’ with selected sets of CA community and partners to hear views, experiences and identify practice needs
O Advise on specific, relevant CA expertise needed, to complement or extend existing field competencies
Project Proposal: Analyses
Social Capital and Dynamic Stability
A New Era for Humanitarian Assistance
Institutional Drivers of Human DevelopmentO Analysis of political institutional drivers—namely,
capacity, autonomy, and incentive—and their potential relationship with human development (e.g. income, education, and health)
O Hypothesis: predicts drivers will have a significant and positive relationship with human development; individually, the drivers will no relationship
O Methodology: cross-provincial and regression analysis, Philippines 1997-2009
Homeland IntegrationConvenor: Paula Philbin
Questions for Sponsor:O What purpose(s) to add focus on homeland integration?O Will CA functional areas remain the same once ISMG is up
and running?O How much is your intent to support Homeland Defense
Doctrine 3-27 or to explore “the problem you don’t yet know about?”
Potential Areas of study:O Posse Comitatus: Origins, variant claims, and a new
reading for policyO Military response in complex catastrophes: Beyond
KatrinaO Strategic communication: Managing crisis and political
challenge
Study Ideas
Persuasive TechnologyO Develop framework to utilize
“persuasive technologies” to engage key leaders and social movements to facilitate diplomatic relations in non-permissive environments
O Project will review literature and test engagement effectiveness in local cities and possibly OEF operations
Study IdeasCivil Information ManagementO Develop framework for geo-spatial analysis which
will quantitatively assess and forecast the effectiveness of Support to Civil Administration in conflict mitigation and prevention
O Application of Bayesian statistics to a previously developed equation on the size and frequency of attacks in conflict
O Project will make recommendations to hardware and software to improve visualization and functionality
O Potential Partners: Quid and Palantir
TimelinesPlenary (ies)
Monthly seminarsSurvey
38G analysis
Dr. Karen Guttieri
Naval Postgraduate School - Global Public Policy
Academic GroupGuttieri: 831-656-2294 -
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Monterey Custom House Commodore Sloat was the first of six U.S.
military governors in California
Backup Slides
Factors Affecting the Decision to Renew Major Fighting
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Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace
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Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace (contd.)
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Other Factors Related to Peace
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