1 Government of Uganda Ministry of Education and Sports & Education Development Partners FAST TRACK INITIATIVE APPRAISAL REPORT: UPDATED EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGIC PLAN 2010‐2015 FINAL DRAFT September 2010
Microsoft Word - APPRAISAL REPORT - final draft 28_9
Formatted_MY300910 _3_.doc&
Scope of Checking
This report has been discussed with the originator and checked in the light of the
requirements of the terms of reference. In addition the report has been checked to ensure
editorial consistencies.
Disclaimer
This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes
connected with the captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party
or used for any other purpose.
We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any
other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which
is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties
3
ENDORSEMENT LETTER 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1 INTRODUCTION 7
SECTOR OVERVIEW 7 2
THE EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGIC PLAN 20102015: KEY ISSUES
9 Pressures to expand Secondary Education
.......................................................................
12 3 COSTS AND FINANCING OF EDUCATION 16
LongTerm Strategic Direction for Sector Development: Evaluation of Financial Needs and
Cost and Finance simulation model 17
Coverage and costs of PostSecondary Education, Vocational Education and NonFormal
Education...........................................................................................................
18 4 CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE OR DATA GAPS 19 5
CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND DEVELOPMENT 21 6
MONITORING SECTOR PERFORMANCE 25 7
HARMONISATION, AID EFFECTIVENESS AND FUNDING MODALITY
26 TABLES 29 TABLE 1.
CATALOGUE OF MAIN DOCUMENTS USED FOR THE TECHNICAL APPRAISAL
29 TABLE 2A.
POPULATION AND EDUCATION INDICATORS SELECTED FROM THE APPRAISAL
31 TABLE 2B.
EDUCATION INDICATORS FOR DISADVANTAGED GROUPS
32
TABLE 3A: EDUCATION SECTOR OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIES
35 TABLE 3B.
SELECTED COST AND FINANCING SIMULATION FOR ASSESSING STRATEGIC
DIRECTIONS 38 TABLE 4A.
SELECTED QUANTITATIVE TARGETS IN THE 5YEAR ACTION PLAN
39 TABLE 4B.
PERFORMANCE AND DISBURSEMENT OF EXTERNALLY FUNDED PRIMARY
PROJECTS/PROGRAMMES 43 TABLE 4C.
CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND PLANS TO OVERCOME THEM
44 TABLE 5. CONSULTATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS 49
TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF TECHNICAL APPRAISAL
51
ANNEX A: JOINT ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK – EDUCATION SECTION
53
ANNEX B: SUMMARY OF CRITICAL ISSUES AND PRIORITIES IDENTIFIED IN THE QSR
62
ANNEX C: PROGRESS ON MDG AND EFA TARGETS
68
ANNEX D: SUMMARY OF UGANDA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH FTI
76
ANNEX E: COST AND FINANCING SCENARIOS
77
4
Endorsement of Uganda’s Education Sector Strategic Plan (20072015)
We, the undersigned, have positively appraised the Government of Uganda’s (GoU) Updated
Education Sector Strategic Plan (20102015), presented in this Appraisal Report.
We therefore propose that the Updated Uganda Education Sector Strategic Plan (20102015)
be endorsed by the FTI Secretariat.
Country: UGANDA
Belgium Embassy
European Union
Over the past decade the
Education for All (EFA) Fast
Track Initiative (FTI) has alongside
development partners and national governments
substantially increased the resources
for countries that have developed
sound policies and plans to
reach the Millennium
Development Goal (MDG) of completion of Universal Primary Education (UPE) by 2015. The
FTI family – countries that have benefited from additional resources for education – is now
42 including Zambia, Tanzania, Kenya and Malawi.
Strengths
• Shows
long term and evolving sector development process from 1998 to 2015 that
now covers the entire education sector
• Reaffirms commitment to a system
of growth and quality enhancement
from
primary to postprimary and beyond
•
Is the result of processes of internal and external stakeholder consultations
•
Articulates a clearer path from policy priorities to objectives to strategies
•
Embodies regular review through a strong joint annual review mechanism
•
Devotes strong attention to greater equity and improving service delivery in difficult
areas
•
Recognises and puts forward actions to drive up education quality
• Responds to the need to
improve sector governance, identified
as a binding constraint in NDP
through a range of initiatives
that set standards, improve
accountability and performance monitoring.
Areas of concerns
A number of constraints
to performance in
the education sector are identified
in the NDP
and through a recent Institutional Capacity Assessment:
Weak institutional alignment, coordination and accountability practices
6
Inappropriate teaching methods, and inadequate supply of instructional
materials to schools resulting in low levels of literacy and numeracy
Social and cultural practices, attitudes and perceptions relating particular to
gender and marginalised groups which restrict participation
Inadequate physical infrastructure, including sports facilities and equipment
Weak, though improving, school inspection, support and supervision and weak
performance monitoring, particularly of absenteeism, at school level
Lack of community participation and involvement of the parents, partly due to
political interference
Specifically the appraisal team draws attention to
•
Cost and capacity concerns resulting from the new teacher allocation formula
•
Competing priorities of universal secondary and universal primary education
•
The need for more reliable data, building on existing support by donors
•
Internal inefficiencies including high admission, repetition and drop out rates
•
High teacher and pupil absenteeism
• The need to establish one common
results framework that clearly
tracks progress
against sector objectives.
Conclusion
The Education Development Partners (EDP)
in Uganda conclude that
the Updated ESSP is
feasible and realistic. There is a substantial need for additional resources to support primary
education. Whilst there remain
issues, identified in this appraisal
that will influence the
achievement of sector objectives, the EDP maintain that there is an improving commitment
and appetite for change. The GoU
is showing willingness to address
some of the binding
constraints that afflict the education sector through a series of governance reforms that will
improve internal efficiency, and have in place appropriate strategies to improve both access
and quality. The EDPs continue
to commit financial and technical
resources to primary
education and welcome the additional support from the FTI.
Six priority areas that would be the focus for FTI financing and support are identified as:
•
School Facilities Grants to improve basic facilities including classrooms and
sanitation
•
Ensuring timely and adequate supply of instructional materials to significantly
reduce Pupil Textbook Ratios (PTR) , especially in lower primary school
•
Further strengthening teacher training, induction, deployment, support and
management building on existing structures and systems (TDMS, CCTs)
•
Raising school performance through broader community participation and stronger
School Management Committees (SMCs) better able to manage school grants
•
Development and execution of a Capacity Development Strategy, to include central
capacity for policy and planning and that also focuses at the district level through a
system of District Education Improvement Plans, coupled with improved reliability
and use of data (EMIS)
7
1 INTRODUCTION
a.
This appraisal report is prepared in accordance with the FTI Guidelines for Appraisal of
the Primary Education component of the Updated ESSP, adapted where appropriate to
reflect the Ugandan context.
b. The FTI Appraisal Report is
based on the best current and
indicative projections
available from the GoU, approved for use
in this report by the Ministry of Education
and Sports (MOES), the Ugandan
Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and
the Ministry of
Finance, Planning and Economic Development.
It draws extensively on
latest reports, in particular the
2008/09 Education Sector Annual
Progress Report (ESAPR). It
addresses issues raised by the FTI Quality Support Review (QSR) of 2008.
c.
The Appraisal Report has been prepared with full collaboration and involvement of the
MoES and the EDPs.
d. The FTI process has been ongoing
in Uganda since 2002.
(see brief history at Annex
D).
e. The key documents used in
this appraisal are given at
Table 1 (see later Tables
Section). Principally they are:
•
The National Development Plan 2010/11 – 2014/15
•
The Updated Education Sector Strategic Plan 20102015
•
The Revised Education Sector Strategic Plan 20072015
SECTOR OVERVIEW
The history of Uganda following independence in 1962 was initially one of political violence
and turbulence that reduced Uganda to the verge of a failed state. Since 1986 Uganda has
transformed, over the past two decades it has recorded consistently high economic growth
and overall poverty
levels have declined from 56%
in 1992 to 31% in 2005.
In recent years the rule of
law has been strengthened, and following the restoration of peace
in the north
the process of reconstruction, rehabilitation and development
is underway. The period of
peace and growing prosperity has
been marred by the scourge of
HIV/AIDs and though
Uganda has made considerable efforts
in reducing the spread and
impact of the pandemic,
with seroprevalence reducing from a high of 18%
in 1992 to an estimated current
level of 6.1%.
Uganda ranks 157th (out of 182 countries) on the UNDP Human Development Index:
life expectancy is 51.9 years and adult literacy 73.6%. Uganda has one of the world’s highest
fertility rates with an estimated
population (2008) of
31.6 million which is projected
to
increase to 37.9m by 2015. Despite
increased growth and stability, Uganda remains one of
the world’s poorest countries.
The Ugandan economy experienced
average
growth of 8% between 2004/05
to 2007/08.
The NDP forecasts GDP growth between 2010/11 and 2014/15 to be at an average of 7.2%
8
per annum. The
share of education as
total government expenditure has declined
from a high of 20.6% in
2002/03 to fluctuate between 15%
and 16% in the last four
years to
2008/09. Budget allocations will
continue to come under pressure
from competition from
other priority sectors, in particular
infrastructure and energy, and are predicted
to remain
between 15% and 16% till 2013/14 with a rise to 17.4% in 2014/15. Financial allocations are
assessed as being insufficient
to meet
the aspirations of ESSP and there
is a real need to
improve the efficiency of service delivery within the education sector.
Primary education is characterised by
low levels of
internal efficiency with high repetition
and drop out rates, low
completion, high levels of both
teacher and pupil absenteeism,
generally low levels of
accountability, inadequate infrastructure,
uneven distribution of
teachers and a paucity of instructional materials in schools. The recent study on efficiency in
the education sector1 estimated that
a third of resources to primary
education are mis allocated. Pedagogy
is outdated and teacher competencies
are reported as weak. Pupil
teacher ratios are high, averaging
54:1 in primary with Pupil
Classroom ratios at 80:1 in
government primary schools.
But efforts are being made to
reduce these through a new
teacher allocation formula and
incentives to place teachers in
hard to reach locations.
Uganda’s progress against both EFA and MDG targets is given at Annex C,
Effective planning and resource allocation has been constrained by incomplete data returns
and perverse
incentives to over report enrolments
in schools to
increase capitation grants.
EMIS is being strengthened with donor support. Reform initiatives, albeit well conceived and
designed, are often constrained in
their implementation through lack of
resources:
inspectors and education officers lack transport, the new curriculum is hampered by lack of
textbooks to cite but two.
Despite the supply side
issues, demand for education
remains high. Over the past decade
enrolments have increased significantly
with gender parity now practically
achieved at
primary level. There are large geographical variations across all indicators, with hard to reach
rural areas having lowest performance on access, gender parity and achievement.
1 The Efficiency of Public Education in Uganda, World Bank 2008. 2
Based on population estimates from UBOS
9
2
THE EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGIC PLAN 20102015: KEY ISSUES
Uganda’s Updated ESSP is well contextualised with broader national development plans, in
particular the National Development
Plan (NDP) 2010/11 – 2014/15
and the Poverty Eradication action
Plan (PEAP). The legislative
basis governing education provision
in
Uganda is set out in the Education (Primary and PostPrimary) Act, 2008) which states that
“basic education shall be provided and enjoyed as a right by all persons”.
Uganda’s ESSP was originally conceived and approved
in 2003 and, commendably, took a
realistic and long term view of sector development till 2015. The ESSP was revised in 2007
to take account of six new policy initiatives, resulting in the Revised ESSP 20072015, dated
September 2008. This appraisal took place during a period of further revision prompted by
the approval of Uganda’s NDP and by a number of recent studies and assessments. At the
time of this report the Updated ESSP had been finalised, approved by donors and is in the
process of formal endorsement
by MoES. The
report makes an assessment of
the
Updated ESSP 20102015, reflecting on its quality against objective criteria, and evaluates
progress to date in implementation of reforms.
The process of revision that
has characterised Uganda’s ESSP since
2003 reflects the
dynamic nature of sector plans recognising the need for flexibility if long term aspirations
are to be achieved. As part
of the process of updating the
ESSP a number of supplementary
studies have been undertaken to
address information gaps including
(i)
revised finance model and a amendment to the indicators, targets and projections; (ii) an
institutional capacity assessment focusing
on examinations, teacher education,
school inspections and curriculum
development; and (iii) a country
study of preprimary and
primary teacher development
The Government of Uganda is fully committed to the achievement of UPE and USE3. Whilst
this appraisal acknowledges the ESSP as embracing the entire education sector, and has
taken into account the full range of policy initiatives, in particular their likely impact on
sector financing, the main substance of the appraisal is on Uganda’s plans and prospects in
primary education and the challenges of meeting the MDG and EFA goals.
The policy objectives of the Updated ESSP may be summarised as follows:
a)
increase equitable access at all levels of education, ensuring universal participation
at primary level (seven years) and (lower) secondary level (four years)
b)
Improve the quality and relevance of education;
c)
Improve effectiveness and efficiency in delivery of education services
The education sector objectives from the Updated ESSP are presented at Annex A.
MoES has identified a number of key priorities (Figure 1) within the Updated ESSP to secure
achievement of objectives of equitable access, quality and efficiency
in primary education.
These align with priorities in
the NDP and with the performance
targets contained in the
Joint Assessment Framework (JAF) which
forms the basis of support from
the donors who provide assistance
through the budget. Many of
these are ongoing reforms already
initiated under the Revised ESSP 20072015.
3 USE definition for Uganda: transition from P7 to S1, and
retention, progression and completion of Secondary 1 (S1) to
Secondary 6 (S6)
10
This section of the appraisal assesses the long term strategic direction of the ESSP and seeks
to answer questions in the Appraisal Guidelines.
The focus of this appraisal is on primary education – in particular access and quality though
this cannot be viewed in
isolation given competing demands
from the subsectors,
principally postprimary. The enrolment projections and
the costings of the Updated ESSP
have been based on revised and
updated data, using latest budget
projections and
enrolment data. They are driven by the policy goals of universal primary and secondary (to
form 4) education
Figure 1: MoES Priority areas under ESSP
Priority Areas: Access to Primary Education
1.
Continue with implementation of UPE by providing capitation grants to cover school costs
2.
Provide hardship allowances to improve PTR in hard to reach areas
3.
Deploying more female teachers to rural schools to increase girls’ participation
4.
Improve facilities at schools through use the School Facilities Grants (SFG)
Priority Areas – Quality and Relevance of Primary Education
1.
Improve provision of instructional materials to schools to raise learning achievement.
2.
Implement the new Thematic Curriculum in P1 to P3, start reform of upper primary curriculum
3.
Improve pupil assessment, including school based continuous assessment.
4.
Ensure adequate recruitment, distribution an performance of qualified teachers
5.
Strengthen Primary Teacher Colleges so they supply sufficient adequately prepared teachers
6.
Expand coverage of preprimary education through public private partnership and licensing more
ECD centres
7.
Reduce under and overaged enrolment.
8.
Promote community / Parents’ involvement
Priority Areas Effectiveness and Efficiency of Primary Education
1.
Improve school management through the Teacher Development and Management Systems
(TDMS), Implement the Customised Performance Targets (CPT) scheme for head teachers, and
use of School Improvement Plans
2.
Ensure all schools have effective SMCs.
3.
Effectively monitor learning achievement in numeracy and literacy skills and publish results
4.
Regularly publish results of assessments of pupils’ achievements in literacy and numeracy, as a
basis for each school’s plan for improvement of pupil achievement levels (JAF)
5.
Strengthen the capacity and role of District Education Officers (DEOs) and District Inspectors of
Schools (DIS) in school supervision.
6.
Strengthen EMIS to collect, analyse and report data in a timely manner for planning and decision
making
11
7.
Increase career incentives and progression for primary teachers, head teachers and teacher
educators through new Schemes of Service
8.
Introduce a system of standards that is the basis for improved capacity to track use of resources.
Priority Areas – Cross Cutting
1.
Implement the new sector policy on HIV/AIDS with its emphasis on prevention, and to improve,
guidance and counselling skills, care and support
2.
Promote physical education and sports in schools
3.
Increase opportunities for disabled children through Inclusive Education policy and strategies
What tradeoffs are envisaged to reach the stated goals in a manner that is fiscally realistic
and that accommodates other claims
on public resources, including claims
by other education subsectors?
The theme of Uganda’s NDP
is “Growth, Employment and SocioEconomic Transformation
for Prosperity”. Four priority
sectors are identified as Human
Resource Development, Infrastructure,
agricultural and industrial production,
and science technology and
innovation. Education thus competes with other key sectors linked to NDP goals. Under the
MTEF Education’s share remains at
around 15%16% but within the
education sector
secondary education share has increased from 22% in 2009 and will stay within the range of
28.6% to 31.3% under the MTEF. By 2015, total allocation to secondary will have
increased
by some 66% over 2010, driving a doubling of enrolment. Post S4 BTEVT
increases by 72% over 2010, whilst
primary share decreases by 1.8%.
The decreasing share of
primary is
mostly due to the assumption that admissions will be monitored and internal efficiency will
4 Uganda National Household Survey 2005/06
12
substantially improve (which remains
to be seen). This explains the
increasing share of
secondary nearly as much as the increase of secondary enrolments.
Currently (2009/10 FY) primary education receives 58.7% of the total government education
budget. This share is projected
to decline further to 48% by
2014/15. The allocation to
development spending is projected to rise from a very low 2.2% (2008/09) and will fluctuate
between 9.2% and 16.9% over
the ESSP period. Reforms
therefore have to be considered
against these ceilings.
Competition between subsectors
in a policy environment that seeks continued expansion,
inevitably involves
trade offs. ESSP strategies to
improve efficiency, in particular
to reduce
repetition, will to some extent offset the impact of reduced financing. The ESSP is strong on
systems reforms to reduce wastage
through a number of performance and accountability
enhancing strategies.
Where GoU chooses to invest
resources is critical. The decision
to adopt the new teacher
allocation formula, which increases to
the salary component of the
recurrent budget, was taken following
the failure of multigrade
teaching used under
the old allocation formula.
The current experience of curriculum
reforms is a further case
in point, where there has
been poor coordination over the three aspects of reform which has affected implementation
and reduced impact. However,
increased attention
in the Updated EESP to
redressing the
problems of overcrowding, high
repetition and drop out and poor
learning at in the early
years of primary schooling are
recognised in the ESSP, offering
the chance to reverse the
trend of prioritising higher levels of the primary cycle.
Insufficient materials are available and only partial teacher orientation has taken place which
impacts negatively on schools and
learners. An approach whereby the
new curriculum is
developed, teacher guides and materials produced, teachers oriented before introduction in
schools will ensure greater success.
Pressures to expand Secondary Education
Uganda has witnessed a steady
increase in enrolment in
secondary education since 2000,
with numbers of students rising from 518,931 in 2000 to 1.2 million in 2009. NDP estimates
there to be just over 3000 secondary schools in Uganda: the private sector accounts for 57%,
government for 31% and community schools 12%. The Government of Uganda made a policy
commitment to move to universal
post primary education and training
(UPPET) in 2007. Since then
participation in secondary education
has increased by 30%. Actual
transition
rates from P7 to S15 have fluctuated widely over the past decade between 48.2% (2005) to
64% (2009), while admission rates
to PLE have also
fluctuated, although to
a much more limited extent, and
slightly increased. A combination
of policy, increased demand and
investment (both public and private)
is
likely to sustain pressure on this subsector and the
share of the total budget to
secondary education will be in
range of 28.6% to 31.3% of
education total over
the plan period. Allocations
to BTVET will also rise marginally
from
2.9% to 4.4% over the same period.
Problems of
low efficiency and poor quality are
largely a result of poor management, with
poor deployment and distribution of
teachers and an overloaded
curriculum. Student
Teacher Ratios have remained fairly
static at 27:1 whilst the
Student Classroom ratio has
dropped from over 46:1 in 2000 to around 35:1 in 2009.
5 Computed as a ratio between newly admitted students in S1 and P7
enrolments
13
What structural policies are being adopted to ensure that student learning continues to
improve in a context of rapid expansion?
The case for investing
in education is stronger
if that education
is of good quality and that
learners master the agreed competencies. Raising learning achievement is a core objective
of the Updated ESSP which fully
recognises that
recent expansion has not been matched
with improving learning achievement.
Pupil performance as measured
through SACMEQ6
assessments in 2005 found 26% of P6 pupils illiterate and 39% innumerate. NAPE results (ref
Annex 2 of the Updated ESSP)
for 2009 show a worsened picture:
inadequacy amongst P6 pupils is
49% for numeracy and 52% for
literacy. Half of Ugandan
pupils, who make it
through to P6, are in effect failing.
Trends of achievement
at P6 measured through NAPE however
show some improvement
since 2003 and this has taken place during a period of continued expansion: proficiency
in
numeracy has improved from 21% in 2003 to 53% in 2009 and in literacy from 20% to 48% in
2009 over the same period.
The ESSP recognises the centrality of teachers to raising standards. The capacity to produce
and sustain sufficient appropriately trained teachers, to deploy them equitably and manage
them effectively so that good instructional time increases are challenges being addressed in
ESSP.
The ESSP identifies numerous strategies that target improved performance, all of which are
necessary and
if effectively delivered are expected
to bring about change. There
is an on going programme of
reform and development to systems
of support and supervision of
schools centred around the
Directorate of Education Standards
(DES) and the Teacher
Instructor Education and Training Department (TIED) working with and through the Primary
Teacher Colleges and
the Coordinating Centre Tutors (CCTs).
At the centre of the drive to
improve standards are the newly revised Basic Requirements Minimum Standards which are
expected to form the basis for
school improvement plans and school
supervision and support.
Capacity of training colleges
is acknowledged as a weakness and
increasing their ability to produce
enough well trained teachers to
service the increasing demand in
schools is a challenge.
Preservice Teacher Training is being
strengthened through programmes
including the development of a new Primary Teacher Education Certificate Curriculum and
through the CTEP programme to enhance skills of Primary Teacher College tutors. Support
to serving teachers is centred
around the long established Teacher
Development and
Management Systems (TDMS). The success of the newly introduced Thematic Curriculum in
primary schools will depend on good
teaching (and problems are
reported) and sufficient
and adequate materials. The latter is a relatively silent area in ESSP.
6 The SACMEQ II Project in Uganda: Study of the Conditions of Schooling and Quality of Education. Byamagisha A, Ssenabulya, F
(2005)
14
Along with good teachers, the ready availability of good quality
instructional materials is a
prerequisite for
raising pupil achievement. The
situation regarding textbooks
in Uganda’s schools is little
short of a crisis. The
Institutional Capacity Assessment (ICA)7
reports “a cumulative lack of
funding for instructional materials
for P2 and P3 and for
textbook provision to
the upper primary grades”.
There are
in place a number of donor supported
programmes that target specific districts and areas, but elsewhere the situation
is reported
as extremely poor. There is clearly need for more detailed analysis of the situation.
Ground work for longer term system reform.
Many of
the aspirations of access and quality will be heavily
influenced by broader sector wide
reforms to improved overall efficiency
and effectiveness. Major overhauls of
school support and supervision,
including inspection, are underway,
as is the roll out of an
improved system of performance
management based on targets and
standards. In the context of
constrained resources, reforms that
are of relatively low cost but
offer high
impact are attractive. Much will depend on
the progress to building the
capacity in these areas to
deliver on the priorities identified
in the accompanying table. The
challenges of
capacity development are dealt with in a subsequent section. Key to success of such reforms
will be the ability to change
the institutional culture in relevant
sections and units at all
levels.
What policies are being adopted to meet the challenges to the system such as HIV/AIDS
and conflicts?
HIV and AIDs has exerted and
continues to exert significant
pressure on the education
sector. The study on Assessment of the Impact of the HIV/AIDS on the Education Sector8 In
Uganda (2008) estimated
that over 10 000 primary
teachers and 5000 secondary
teachers
7 Uganda Institutional Capacity Assessment 2010 8
Assessment of the Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Education Sector in
Uganda. MoES 2008.
15
were HIV positive. The study
suggests that HIV and AIDS
accounts for 50% of teacher
absence and that is estimated to be between 1,000 and 1,200 teacher years per annum. The
direct cost associated with this is Ush 3 bn p.a.
The impact of the pandemic on
children is well documented, though
estimates on the number of
Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC)
vary considerably, the Impact Study
estimates
the number of OVC at around 500,000 and
likely to peak at around 600,000
in
2014. EMIS (2009) puts a much higher figure of 1.3 million. The impact study suggests that
HIV and AIDS is estimated to account for half of school drop outs, thus 225,000 of the 450,00
who drop out of primary school each year are HIV/AIDS related. Further work
is needed to
substantiate these claims and to more accurately gauge the role of HIV/AIDS plays in school
drop out. Available data (UNAIDS 2008) suggest that 81.9% of OVCs are enrolled in school.
What specific policies are being adopted to meet the challenges of gender inequality in
relation to enrolment, retention, completion and learning outcomes in a context of
expansion?
Despite the fact that GPIs show that girls recently reached near full admission and enrolment
in primary, girls enrolment in certain areas lags behind that of boys, as does their completion
of primary schooling as well as
their candidature and achievement
in the primary leaving
examinations. MoES has developed and approved a new Gender
in Education Sector Policy in 2009
and it enforces the Ministry’s
agenda on gender equity under
the ESSP. Girls’ enrolment
is associated with female teachers, and ESSP
includes a strategy to recruit more
female teachers, particularly
in areas where numbers of female teachers are
low. The ESSP
strategies to lower sociocultural barriers to girls’ participation need to include the training
of all teachers – male and
female – in gender sensitive
instruction and promoting greater
16
subject choice for girls at
secondary
level. The availability and use of
the School Facilities
Grant to provide and improve water and sanitation facilities is also aimed at improving girls’
participation. Specific actions through
SMC are monitored through the
self evaluation
instrument developed and used by the DES.
3
COSTS AND FINANCING OF EDUCATION
Estimated Volume of Resources for the Plan period 2010/11 to 2014/15
This appraisal has used enrolment
and budget projections based on
the MTEF 2009/10 – 2014/15
recently published by MOFPED.
Estimated donor contributions are
included, so that the ESSP
Financing Gap (FG) indicates the
additional contributions which would be
expected over and above donor contributions which are already included in the MTEF.
Three scenarios have been designed in order to assess the potential progress of the Ugandan
education sector toward the achievement of UPE, USE and other key policy objectives. Those
scenarios are based on a number
of targets and assumptions which
point to a slow,
intermediate or fast implementation of the UPE and USE policies. They consider all items of
expenditure related to the implementation of those policies. Full details of the scenarios are
at Annex E.
Changes in four main areas may
have a significant impact on
enrolment growth, real resources needs
(teachers, classrooms,
teaching materials, etc) and funding
requirements
and the funding gap: (i) admissions in each subsector, especially primary, secondary O and A
level, and BTVET post P7 and post S4;
(ii) internal efficiency, especially
in the primary sub sector, where
repetition and dropout rates are
high; (iii) the new formula for
allocating
teachers to schools; and (iv) trends affecting real salaries and other costs.
A number of
interventions planned under ESSP and
identified as key sector performance
issues under the JAF are
expected to exert considerable impact
on efficiency and achievement with
very limited consequences on
expenditure, as for example: (i)
fighting
9 This figure is updated every four months following regular forum
of donors and MoFED.
18
teacher and pupil absenteeism; (ii) ensuring that textbooks and other instructional materials
actually reach classrooms and are used by teachers and pupils; (iii) assigning sufficient and
experienced teachers to P1P3 classes;
(iv) improving school support and
supervision, including a more
influential
role of School Management Committees. Those changes have
not been factored in
the model since conditions
for success and actual
impact on outputs
are not known, and they depend on the speed of which actions being undertaken to address
these constraints bear fruit. It
cannot be understated how success
in these relatively low
cost, high
impact areas would make a real difference to the efficiency and effectiveness of
the sector.
While scenarios differ according to the four above mentioned areas, the actual difference
and the probability of moving from the low to the intermediate scenario, or from the
intermediate to the high scenario mostly depends on MOES success in the areas not covered
by the model. The specific targets and assumptions have a deep impact on enrolments,
especially in primary, secondary and BTVET, teacher and classroom requirements, and hence
on expenditure and the funding gap. According to the intermediate scenario, primary
enrolments would only slightly increase to 8.3 million, while secondary and BTVET
enrolments would increase more substantially.
Coverage and costs of PostSecondary Education, Vocational Education and NonFormal
Education
Table C below shows the
relative subsectoral shares: the
share to primary education is
projected to decrease from
the current 52.8% to 48%
in 2014/15, Shares of post primary
(secondary and BTVET) and tertiary will be increased to meet targeted expansion.
Table C: Share of Projected Expenditure by Subsector
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Primary 57.1% 51.9% 53.1% 52.3% 50.1% 49.1%
48.3%
Secondary 22.0% 30.9% 28.9% 28.3% 29.4% 30.6%
30.9%
BTVET 3.9% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.4% 4.2% 4.5%
Tertiary 15.8% 13.4% 13.8% 14.6% 15.2% 15.3%
15.5%
Servicescentr. Admin 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
4 CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE OR DATA GAPS
The Mid Term Evaluation of the
EFA Fast Track
Initiative Country Desk Study
for Uganda (June 2009) reported
“Early World Bank analytical support
to the FTI process in 2002
identified some data weaknesses in
relation to enrolments. However,
these related to
population statistics rather than to the EMIS, and the problems have been rectified by the
2002 population census. The World Bank emphasised at the time “that the problems in data
collection … are not unique to Uganda. .. the school system has been growing rapidly under
new “rules of the game” brought about by the introduction of the UPE policy in 1997 which
eliminated fees for primary
schooling. The practice of
switching schools has apparently
intensified ….., since families are now no
longer constrained by having already paid fees at
the beginning of term, from moving their children to another school that is perceived to be
providing better services. Tracking enrolments
in such a setting
is difficult at best, and the
Ministry should be commended for its continuing efforts to improve data collection through
various arrangements to verify the school census returns through spot checks.”
There remain a number of data gaps which need to be resolved for more effective planning,
monitoring and resource allocation within the sector.
Enrolments Declared admissions and enrolments in Primary seem to be inflated, as may be
found when computing two major indicators: the Gross Admission Rate (GAR, or AIR, if using
the UIS terminology) and the Gross Enrolment Rate (GER).
20
GER varies around 130%. Even the GER net of repeaters, which is the main cause of inflated
GER, is around 110%, while it should reach 100% only if all children are at school and UPE is
actually achieved. This may be
due to underestimated population data
(see below
population), but also derives from the confusion between attendance and enrolments.
GAR has been higher than 100%
for years, while this is
impossible, even if children are
admitted into P1 at varying
ages10. Aside from the confusion
between attendance and
enrolments, only four possible explanations may be advanced:
The number of children aged 6 is underestimated (see population, below);
A number of admissions are readmissions of pupils having dropped out during or at
the end of P1 and returns from schools fail to record this accurately.
School may inflate admissions to
prevent their number of teachers
being cut,
though this may be reduced with the implementation of the new teacher formula;
Admissions are systematically inflated
by district declarations, based on
the
incentive built in the capitation grant formula11.
MoES recognises the need to develop better data verification within programmes to
strengthen EMIS and school monitoring more generally.
Population The last population census
was carried out in 2002 and
a new one is
programmed for 2012. Population data and projections for
later years following the census
inevitably become less
reliable, especially fiveyear and
single year estimates. In addition,
the lower the geographical unit, the higher the risk of biased population estimates.
Up to now, MOES Bulletin of Statistics includes estimates of GAR, GER and NER which refer
to age groups significantly higher than those provided by Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS)
during the last mission. GAR and GER do not look therefore as high as when UBOS data are
used.
10
‘Education Management Information Systems: Comments from a Field Researcher’, Claude Tibi, 2009
11 Schools have vested interests in overdeclaring and so does the district in order to get a bigger share of the
total amount available for capitation grant.
21
Repetition rates (%)
Revised ESSP 2008 14.2 12.9 14.4
13.7 15.0 17.6 5.1
Updated ESSP 2010 14.9 12.3 13.1
13.1 13.3 13.9 9.8
Drop out rates (%)
Revised ESSP 2008 10.1 5.2 7.0
6.2 6.5 11.1 4.2
Updated ESSP 2010 25.1 25.3 0.7
0.8 9.8 15.1 26.5
5
CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND DEVELOPMENT
Success
in achieving the objectives of both access and quality depend
to a large extent on the
capacity of the system. Issues
around corruption, lack of
accountability, teacher
absenteeism and failures in various points in the delivery chain persist in the system and the
objectives and strategies enumerated
in Chapters 3 and 4 of
the Updated ESSP focus
attention on
improving overall system efficiency and effectiveness.
A summary of capacity issues
against the priorities identified
for primary education are summarised
at Table 4C.
This section identifies key issues and concerns emerging from two recent analyses.
The Efficiency of Public Education
in Uganda study (WB, 2008)
identified weak internal
efficiency with its cause being four main factors, namely
(i)
the leakage of resources between central government and schools due to ghost
teachers and misuse of UPE grants;
(ii) leakage of resources
in schools, mainly due to the high rate of absenteeism of
head teachers, teachers and pupils alike;
(iii) inequitable deployment of teachers
across and within districts unrelated
to need; and
In response, in 2008 the MOES
launched the Quality Education Initiative, following which 9
of the 12 QEI districts
improved their rankings in the
2009 PLE exams. Nevertheless
considerable constraints remain at the District
level where resources and capacity are both
low, and the success of the QEI is heavily dependent on support from the centre.
22
In response to the recommendations
of the QSR a comprehensive
Institutional Capacity Assessment (ICA)
was undertaken in February 2010.
The ICA made a specific
recommendation that in
the event of FTI endorsement,
the Government should make an
application to access FTI Catalytic Funds, for the purpose of strengthening the QEI to create
a nationwide District Education Improvement Programme.
Readiness of action plans for implementation and capacity development to improve
implementation for results
The ICA identified eight broad areas where capacity was constrained and makes
recommendations that will improve capacity to deliver the ESSP.
Introduce service level agreements to
improve coordination and service
delivery at the
central level. Instructional materials have not reached schools in the quantities required and
especially so in the case of
local languages; the revised
preservice teacher education curriculum
has not yet been finalised and
introduced; inservice teacher education
to
prepare teachers to teach the thematic curriculum has only been partially rolled out.
Complete restructuring of MoES. The
restructuring of the MOES that
started in 2006 and was approved
in 2009 remains work in
progress with many staff are
still working in an
“acting” capacity. All posts should be filled substantively at the earliest possible opportunity
and new staff should receive a formal induction into both the civil service and the Ministry of
Education.
Align public service scheme of service with sector requirements. District Education Officers
District/Municipal and SubCounty level
education officials etc. require the
core competencies related to their
professional roles to be defined.
The Ministry of Public Service,
in collaboration with MOES, should
develop the relevant competencies for
each category of education
professional and incorporate these
into the relevant Schemes of
Service and Staff Performance Appraisal process.
Assessment of capacity
in the curriculum development process
identified major problems
in the development and introduction of the Thematic Curriculum as detailed below:
o
IMU has not delivered sufficient instructional materials and textbooks to schools as
detailed in a number of recent
studies. The process for the
procurement of
instructional materials appears complex and unwieldy;
o The revision of the teacher
education curriculum by Kyambogo
University has suffered delays, but
is being piloted this year. Thus
teachers newly qualifying from
the PTCs are not receiving training consistent with the Thematic Curriculum;
o Whilst NCDC worked with the
PTCs/CCTs to undertake the initial
orientation of
teachers for the introduction of the new curriculum, those
interviewed considered
this to be not sufficient to help teachers develop the range of new skills required to
successfully implement the curriculum.
NCDC has, for example, observed
that
continuous assessment is not being fully implemented by teachers in the classroom.
Assessment continues to be focused
on school tests and other
attributes of children’s learning
achievement that should be reported
through continuous
assessment is not reported.
o Other challenges that lie beyond
the remit of the NCDC and
that impact upon the
success of the new curriculum include the continuing challenge of class size and the
difficulties of classroom organisation
required for satisfactory implementation
of the thematic curriculum.
A range of challenges are
identified which impact on the
capacity within Teacher
Education to improve the quality of teaching, as detailed below:
23
o In PTCs poor planning and
record keeping is observed in
many colleges;
considerable financial constraints with release of grants behind schedule; staff
shortages; inadequate physical facilities
including limited classrooms,
administrative blocks and accommodation, and poor quality construction.
o
The thematic primary school curriculum was
introduced into Primary 1 in 2007
but due to delays the introduction of the revised preservice curriculum was not
aligned and is now planned to be introduced into PTCs in 2011.
o Challenges faced by CCTs to
effectively fulfil the responsibilities
assigned to them include:
ratio of schools to CCTs the target ratio one CCT to 2040 primary schools
is achievable with the present number of 529 CCTs. However, accessibility of
schools varies both within and between districts.
CCTs are provided with motorcycles
to enable them to visit
schools,
however many consider these dangerous and women CCTs cannot ride them
comfortably.
The budget for fuel is limited
and has been subject to delays
in disbursement by the Core
PTCs. This makes it problematic
for CCTs to
provide adequate CPD support to all schools on a regular basis.
Inconsistencies between districts in
the working arrangements of CCTs.
In
one district the DEO and DIS stated that they did not work directly with the
CCTs. In another district,
in contrast, the PTC administration
indicated that they have regular
planning meetings with the CCTs
and the DIS, to the
extent that the DIS involves CCTs in school inspection visits and schoolbased
follow up actions with permission from the PTC.
In response to the challenges
identified, the MOES has developed
Customised Performance Targets (CPTs)
for PreService and Coordinating
Centre Tutors (2009) to address
these challenges. TIETD has also
worked with NCDC to revise the
preservice
teacher training course to align with the revised primary school curriculum
including the Thematic Curriculum,
multigrade teaching, HIV/AIDS, Guidance
and Counselling, and
Special Needs Education.
Capacity constraints in School
Inspections are
identified through analysis at both central
DES and district DIS levels; this
impacts their capacity to implement
the BRMS. Areas of
weakness identified include:
o
lack of autonomy, whereby the Inspectorate is not independent at either central
or district levels, and this
lack of autonomy constraints its
ability to give
impartial analysis and advice.
o Staffing levels at all
levels are
insufficient to allow for a comprehensive regime
of school inspection to
take place, and many professional
staff at central and
regional levels are not employed in a substantive role.
o There are no defined competencies
to guide the recruitment of
school
inspectors, nor a set of criteria to inform their professional development.
o
There are insufficient vehicles and poor office facilities (at Regional and District
level) to allow the inspectorate to function effectively.
o There is no overall
inspection management information
system, with storage and retrieval
of inspection reports at all
levels being weak and inadequate
communications with education stakeholders and the broader public about the
outcomes of school inspections.
o Weak linkages between the DIS
and the local CCTs undermine
the quality assurance cycle which
should see the outcomes of
school inspections shared
24
with schools, communities and CCTs
so that follow up actions to
address weaknesses can be
identified, undertaken and
subsequently monitored by the
inspectors.
Institutional assessment concluded that
the capacity of UNEB is a
strong component of the education
sector, providing high quality
assessment and examination services.
Nevertheless, a number of capacity gaps were
identified where capacity may need to be
strengthened.
o The integration of continuous
assessment in the Thematic Curriculum
grades
P13 is designed to improve the quality of teaching and learning in those grades.
In principle this is a progressive step that should help teachers to plan better and
more effectively monitor the progress
of individual pupils in their
classes.
However, with a notional, national Pupil:Teacher ratio of 1:53 and most Lower
Primary classes being greatly in
excess of this ratio, carrying o