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Governor’s Proposals for the 2011-12Governor’s Proposals for the 2011-12Governor’s Proposals for the 2011-12State Budget and K-12 Education
Governor’s Proposals for the 2011-12State Budget and K-12 Education
Presented by:Ron Bennett, Maureen Evans, John Gray, Michele Huntoon,Jannelle Kubinec, Robert Miyashiro, Sheila Vickers
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
IntroductionIntroduction
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Overview of Major ThemesOverview of Major Themes
Welcome to the School Services of California, Inc., (SSC) 2011 Governor’s Budget Workshop!
The major themes in today’s presentation are:
A look at state and national economics
The challenges faced by our new Governor
A-1
The challenges faced by our new Governor
How the Governor proposes to deal with those challenges
Proposition 98, revenue limit issues and other education issues
Practical planning considerations and ideas
Remember, the Governor’s Proposal starts, but does not finish the process
As always, we will provide updated information during the year using SSC’s Fiscal Report, Community College Update, website, video reports, and webcasts
Our subtitle this year is “How tough people get through tough times”© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
State and National EconomicsState and National Economics
The economy is the key to everything
Business generates jobs, personal and corporate income, and capital gains
Government taxes those sources and funds education and other government services
A-2
Businesses are generating cash and profits, but they are not yet confident enough for expansion and hiring
The Feds plan to do less for states in terms of stimulus – no new funding is planned
But the state still hasn’t recovered, and won’t for a long time to come
Good news: Things have stopped getting worse and there is some improvement
Bad news: Full recovery may take until 2016, a year longer than was estimated last year © 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Governor’s ChallengesThe Governor’s Challenges
New Governor, new approach, same lousy environment
The Governor faces the biggest deficit ever faced by any governor in U.S. history
And he inherits huge economic problems and a divided Legislature
All of his proposals are opposed by someone:
A-3
All of his proposals are opposed by someone:
Republicans oppose new taxes
Democrats oppose spending cuts
Taxpayers oppose more debt
You cannot balance this Budget without taxes, spending cuts, and maybe some debt
There are no new rabbits and no new hats, but this Governor will need to be a master magician to lead this state © 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Governor’s Proposals for 2011-12The Governor’s Proposals for 2011-12
So, how does the Governor propose to dig the state out of this economic quagmire?
Cuts – lots of them
But with the acknowledgement that education has already taken more than its fair share of cuts
Realignment
A-4
Realignment
To restore local control of service delivery and save the state money
Continuation of taxes
Temporary taxes would be extended by five years
Basically the Governor has two plans:
If the taxes are extended, the cuts are as budgeted in January
Education would be flat funded for 2011-12
If the taxes are not extended, an estimated additional $9 billion in cuts would be needed, including large cuts to education
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Proposition 98 and The Education BudgetProposition 98 and The Education Budget
Because of suspension, Proposition 98 is not a factor in 2010-11, except for marking the maintenance factor
For 2011-12, there is no proposal to suspend Proposition 98
But if the temporary taxes are not extended, Proposition 98 drops by $2.3 billion
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And the Governor indicates he expects education to take that hit
Additionally, another $6 billion in solutions would need to be found
With extension of taxes education is flat-funded for 2011-12
No midyear cuts are proposed, so we keep the funding level in the enacted 2010-11 Budget through 2011-12
Mandates are funded to the tune of $89 million
The maintenance factor, to be collected in some future “good year,” continues to grow
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Best PracticesBest Practices
Best practices are defined as the most efficient (least amount of effort) and effective (best results) ways of accomplishing a task, based on procedures that have proven themselves over time
It will be critical to review the best practices information in the areas of:
Collective bargaining
Capital facilities and infrastructure considerations
A-6
Capital facilities and infrastructure considerations
Cash, borrowing, credit, and reserve levels
Charter school oversight
Communication and outreach to stakeholders
Contingency planning for now and the future
In this economic climate, local educational agencies (LEAs) have to be on their “A” game
It will be important to address each of these potential “land mines” with tried-and-true approaches
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Overview of the State Budgetand the State Economy
Overview of the State Budgetand the State Economy
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
U.S. Economic OutlookU.S. Economic Outlook
While the “Great Recession” is officially over, lasting 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009, strong economic growth remains elusive
U.S. unemployment rate is 9.4% – down from 9.9%
Third quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was just 2.6%
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Housing starts are one-third of their prerecession levels
But some positive developments point to better times ahead
The stock market has risen significantly, reflecting investor optimism
Individuals are saving more and lowering their debt
Inflation is nonexistent
Corporations and banks are awash in cash© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
U.S. Economic OutlookU.S. Economic Outlook
None of our economic forecasters – Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), UCLA, or the Department of Finance (DOF) – are predicting a double-dip recession
The consensus view is that the economy will grow slowly in 2011 and then pick up steam in 2012
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Job creation will continue to be a problem, with the natural unemployment rate running above 9% through 2011 and into 2012
Federal policy has yielded mixed results
Stimulus funds have saved some jobs, but the federal deficit has soared
The Fed’s “quantitative easing” has yet to lower interest rates
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
U.S. Economic OutlookU.S. Economic Outlook
2.2%1.6%
5.0%
3.7%
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
U.S. GDP(% Change)
B-3
-2.7%
-5.4%
-6.4%
-0.7%
-4.0%
-6.8%
-4.9%
-0.7%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter
U.S. GDP as Estimated Jan. 2010
U.S. GDP as Estimated Jan. 2011
2008 2009 2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 22, 2010© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Federal DeficitFederal Deficit
Federal deficits soar during the recession, reaching $1.4 trillion in 2009
UCLA forecasts deficits
B-4
UCLA forecasts deficits averaging $1 trillion over the decade
For comparison, California’s total personal income in 2009 was $1.6 trillion
Source: Office of Management and Budget; UCLA December 2010© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
California’s Economic OutlookCalifornia’s Economic Outlook
California’s economy was hit hard during the recession
Subprime loans and the collapse of housing led the downturn
The state’s 12.4% unemployment rate is the third highest in the nation
Since the employment peak, the state has lost 1.3 million jobs
Construction employment was hit hardest
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UCLA says the state is well positioned for the recovery
UCLA identifies education, health care, exports, and technology as leading the way
Regional differences: Coastal cities will thrive, while the Inland Empire and Central Valley will struggle
The Governor’s Budget, however, expects the labor market to be a continuing challenge
Payroll employment is not projected to reach prerecession levels until 2016, eight years from the beginning of the recession
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
California’s Unemployment RateCalifornia’s Unemployment Rate B-6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Comparing the Forecasts – JobsComparing the Forecasts – Jobs B-7
Sources: LAO, California’s Fiscal Outlook, November 2010; UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California, December 2010; 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, January 2011
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Comparing the Forecasts – IncomeComparing the Forecasts – Income B-8
Sources: LAO, California’s Fiscal Outlook, November 2010; UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California, December 2010; 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, January 2011
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Comparing the Forecasts – InflationComparing the Forecasts – Inflation B-9
Sources: LAO, California’s Fiscal Outlook, November 2010; UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California, December 2010; 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, January 2011
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Recovery Takes a Long TimeRecovery Takes a Long Time B-10
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Prior-Year Budget “Solutions”Prior-Year Budget “Solutions”
Ongoing state expenditures have been funded with one-time revenue from:
$17.4 billion in federal stimulus funds
$8.3 billion in higher taxes
$6.5 billion from accelerated tax collections
B-11
$2.1 billion from redevelopment agencies
$1.7 billion in accounting changes from Medi-Cal and state payroll
Solutions that make future deficits worse:
$14.6 billion in Economic Recovery Bonds
$7.6 billion from securitization of tobacco lawsuit settlement
$5.5 billion in loans from special funds and local governments
$2.4 billion from sale of state buildings and mandate deferrals© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Prior-Year Budget “Solutions”Prior-Year Budget “Solutions” B-12
Source: DOF, December 2010© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Budget GapThe Budget Gap B-13
$26.7 billion
Assumed Federal funds $3.6Budgeted, but not realized savings $1.7Proposition 22 savings $1.6
Source: 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, p.4
Sunset of Temporary Taxes $7.2Expiration of Federal stimulus $4.0Other-one-time solutions $3.4
Revenue decline $3.1Workload increase $2.1
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
California’s Debt BurdenCalifornia’s Debt Burden
California’s debt service burden has risen sharply during the recession
California’s credit rating is the worst in the nation
B-14
the worst in the nation
Florida AAA
Georgia AAA
Texas AA+
California A-
Debt service costs total about $5.8 billion in 2009-10
Source: State Treasurer’s Office, December 2010Recession
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
CartoonCartoon
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
What’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget?What’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget?
Governor Brown proposes $12.5 billion in cuts, which come primarily from other areas of the State Budget
Major reductions include:
$1.7 billion by limiting Medi-Cal services and requiring beneficiaries to share in costs
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share in costs
$1.5 billion by establishing time limits and reducing California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) grants
$1 billion in reductions to University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU)
$750 million from the Department of Developmental Services
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
What’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget?What’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget?
$750 million in childcare savings
$486 million by reducing hours for In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)
$308 million in reduced take-home pay for state employees without contracts
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$300 million (net) from community colleges
It appears that other major savings come from one-time savings and borrowing
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
What’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget –RealignmentWhat’s Proposed for the Rest of the Budget –Realignment
The Governor’s Proposed Budget calls for a shift of government services to the local level
Custody and care of juvenile offenders and low-level adult felons
Court security
CAL FIRE, fire and emergency response activities
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Foster care and child welfare services
Adult protective services
Mental health services, including AB 3632
Transfer of responsibilities would be accompanied by dedicated revenues
1% sales tax and 0.5% vehicle license fee (VLF) which have been in effect since 2009
Would continue for an additional five years
Subject to voter approval at the June special election© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Realignment and EducationRealignment and Education
The Governor’s realignment proposals could affect LEAs in several ways:
Proposition 98
The 2011-12 proposed level of funding assumes that voters agree to extend temporary tax measures
Absent such action, the Proposition 98 guarantee would drop
B-18
Absent such action, the Proposition 98 guarantee would drop along with revenues
Tax revenues from the 1¢ sales tax and 0.5% from the VLF would be dedicated to a special fund
Results in a reduction to General Fund revenues used for determining the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee
Programs
Structure and funding for child care and mental health is changed to allow for increased local control
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
What’s Proposed for Redevelopment?What’s Proposed for Redevelopment?
Governor Brown proposes to phase out redevelopment agencies beginning in 2011-12
No new obligations; however, existing obligations will be honored
Freed-up funds will provide General Fund relief
In future years, funds will be available for local government, including
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In future years, funds will be available for local government, including schools
Estimated to be $900 million by 2012-13
Similar amount for education
Proposes constitutional amendment to allow 55% voter approval for limited local tax increases and bonding against local revenues for development projects
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Where Do Local Property Taxes Go?Where Do Local Property Taxes Go?
The Governor proposes restructuring the flow of local property tax funding away from redevelopment agencies (RDA) to other local entities
B-20
Shift
The Governor estimates that RDAs will divert $5 billion in property tax revenue from other agencies in 2011-12 allocated in proportionate shares to remaining local agencies
Shift
RDA Funding
Redevelopment Agencies
12%
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Bumpy Road for Redevelopment ShiftsBumpy Road for Redevelopment Shifts
A change in the state’s approach to redevelopment funds could yield significant gains for many LEAs
However, there are many practical and political barriers that such a proposal must overcome:
Timing – the Governor expects funds to be available as early as 2011-12, but most RDA projects are capital projects for which there are decades of
B-21
but most RDA projects are capital projects for which there are decades of outstanding payments
Equity by county – the amount of property taxes that go toward redevelopment varies dramatically throughout the state
Equity for LEAs – the proposal calls for the funding to be shared on an equal amount per student within each county, but inter-county disparities will be significant
Boundaries – RDA funds are within county boundaries, but some LEAs cross county lines
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
General Fund Revenue SourcesGeneral Fund Revenue Sources
Personal Income Tax
The top 1% of state taxpayers paid 43% of this tax in 2008
Taxpayers with incomes
B-22
Taxpayers with incomes more than $100,000 paid 84% of this tax in 2008
Capital gains is a volatile source of income, dropping from $132 billion in 2007 to $35 billion in 2009
Source: 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, Page 39© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
(Dollars in Millions)
2010-11 2011-12
Prior-Year Balance -$5,342 -$3,357
Revenues and Transfers $94,194 $89,696
Total Resources $88,852 $86,339
Revenues and transfers drop 4.8% because one-time tax accelerations expire
Expenditures drop
General Fund Budget SummaryGeneral Fund Budget Summary B-23
Total Expenditures $92,209 $84,614
Fund Balance -$3,357 $1,725
Budget Reserve:
Reserve for Encumbrance $770 $770
Reserve for Economic Uncertainties -$4,127 $955
Budget Stabilization Account $0 $0
Total Available Reserve -$4,127 $955
Expenditures drop 8.2% from major cuts to most state programs
The reserve is just 1.1% of revenues and transfers
Source: 2011-12 Governor’s Budget, p.10© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Risks to the Budget ProposalRisks to the Budget Proposal
Flat funding for K-12 education is dependent upon voters approving the extension of the current temporary taxes
The Legislature must place this proposal on the ballot, requiring two-thirds vote in each house
Two Republicans in each house must agree – will be a tough sell!
B-24
Two Republicans in each house must agree – will be a tough sell!
Voters may turn this down even if it gets on the ballot
Legislature must approve shifting special funds (Proposition 63 for mental health and Proposition 10 for First 5 Program)
Two-thirds vote is required
The Legislature must approve the local government realignment proposal and place the tax extension proposals on the ballot to pay for realignment
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Risks to the Budget ProposalRisks to the Budget Proposal
Court challenges could thwart full implementation of the program reductions and fund shifts
Last November, voters protected local government funding by adopting Proposition 22
This measure is at odds with the Governor’s Proposal for
B-25
This measure is at odds with the Governor’s Proposal for redevelopment funds and transportation bonds
The economic recovery could stall and revenues could underperform the forecast
Problems in Europe could threaten California’s export market
Massive federal deficits could rekindle inflation
A trade war with China could weaken exports and spur inflation
The recovery rate could simply be slower than expected© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Budget Contingency PlanBudget Contingency Plan
The Governor’s Budget assumes that the temporary taxes are extended by the voters for five more years
The Budget also proposes that additional reductions be made in the event that the tax extensions are not approved
This leaves schools in a position of needing at least two plans
B-26
Option 1 – flat funding – continues the funding level contained in the enacted Budget for 2010-11 into 2011-12
Option 2 – a $2 billion reduction in funding – results in a loss of about $330 per ADA for the average district
Districts will need to plan for both eventualities until the fate of the tax extensions is determined
Additionally, economic changes between now and enactment of the 2011-12 Budget could also cause a revision, up or down
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
What Does it Mean to be Protected?What Does it Mean to be Protected?
The Governor featured “protecting education” as a major theme
He acknowledged that education had taken the brunt of past cuts
Protection isn’t perfect, but it does mean:
No midyear cuts to school agencies for 2010-11
B-27
Minor additional reductions for 2011-12, if the tax extensions pass
But it also means that we will have to fight for funding if the tax extensions do not pass
We think, in light of past cuts, education should be protected whether the taxes pass or not
So, while there is room for improvement, the protection offered is better than we have had during the past three years – as long as the taxes pass
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Projected vs. Actual Funding Per ADAProjected vs. Actual Funding Per ADA B-28
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Per-ADA Revenue VolatilityPer-ADA Revenue Volatility
As in the past, we continue to have very high volatility in revenues directed toward education
2011-12 continues the roller-coaster ridebecause of the election contingency
B-29
Revenue levels proposed for 2011-12 are 0.3%lower than 2010-11 if the tax extensions pass
Revenues would be an estimated $330 per average daily attendance (ADA) lower than 2010-11 if the tax extensions do not pass
California needs to provide a more stable revenuestream for schools
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Per-ADA Revenue VolatilityPer-ADA Revenue Volatility B-30
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
California’s Education Spending Lags the NationCalifornia’s Education Spending Lags the Nation B-31
National Average
-$2,580 per student
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Budget and Special Election TimelineBudget and Special Election Timeline
The Governor released his Budget Proposal on January 10
He has called for legislative action within the next 60 days to adopt all necessary statutory changes to implement the Budget
These are usually the Budget Trailer Bills
B-32
These changes would conform to the Governor’s Budget Proposal
The actual Budget Bill, however, would not be adopted
In June, the voters will decide whether to continue $8.8 billion in temporary taxes
If the taxes are extended, the Legislature would then adopt the Budget Bill before the new fiscal year begins
If the taxes are rejected, further unspecified cuts would be required© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Historic Shift ProposedHistoric Shift Proposed
When Jerry Brown was Governor the first time around, he presided over a dramatic shift of power and responsibility from local to state government
With passage of Proposition 13 in 1978, local governments lost 57% of property tax revenue
The state backfilled the loss to avoid massive layoffs and loss of services
B-33
The state backfilled the loss to avoid massive layoffs and loss of services
The state assumed greater responsibility for programs
As Mayor of Oakland, Brown saw the challenge faced by local government in administering programs without control of revenues to support them
The Governor’s Budget Proposal comes full circle by shifting services and power back to the local level
Includes funding to support the shift© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Long-Term SolutionsLong-Term Solutions
Do we need tax reform or less spending? We need both!
Per-capita state revenues are higher than other states
But per-capita spending is even higher
Revenues rely too much on the volatile sales and income taxes
B-34
Property tax is much more stable
Expenditure patterns are also different
We spend far less than the national average on education
More than average on prisons, health and welfare, and social services
To be more normal in education spending, we must learn how to be more normal and spend less in other areas as well
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Shared Interest in Collective BargainingShared Interest in Collective Bargaining
The economic realities of the last three years are taking a toll on the labor-management relationship
A majority of districts continue to settle at the table, but of those who end up at impasse, a higher percentage are not settling in mediation
Whether agreement is reached at the table, in mediation, or during fact-
B-35
Whether agreement is reached at the table, in mediation, or during fact-finding, management and labor share an interest in:
The fiscal solvency of the LEA
Minimizing the impact of reductions on students and the instructional program
Maintaining fair compensation and safe working conditions
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Management InterestManagement Interest
With approximately 90% of a district’s unrestricted revenues dedicated to employee compensation, management has an interest in reducing personnel expenditures
Layoffs
Concessions from employees
B-36
Concessions from employees
Compensation (e.g., salary reduction, increase in health and welfare contributions)
Working Conditions (e.g., class size, preparation time)
Management will want some assurances if things get worse – and they could if the temporary tax extension initiative fails
In the end, it is management and the board that must ensure the fiscal solvency of the district
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Union InterestUnion Interest
The rising cost of health care has effectively reduced the take home pay of most employees
Class sizes are already near the top for teacher-to-student ratios, and the staffing ratios of counselors, librarians, and school nurses in our schools is near the bottom
B-37
Many employee groups have made concessions and may be asked to make them again
Employees will want changes in working conditions and/or workload in exchange for reductions in compensation
Furloughs result in a reduction in pay and a commensurate reduction in workload – but furloughs may not be enough
The union will want some assurance that salary concessions and working conditions will be restored when revenues improve
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Does the Budget Bridge the Gap?Does the Budget Bridge the Gap?
Does the Governor’s Budget bridge the gap between union and management interests and the economic and political realities?
Flat funding is better than more cuts
Flat funding isn’t guaranteed by the Governor’s Proposal
Statutory timelines for layoffs don’t allow for a “wait and see” approach
B-38
Statutory timelines for layoffs don’t allow for a “wait and see” approach
Districts must act to reduce personnel costs assuming the temporary tax initiative fails
Continued uncertainty sets both sides of the negotiations table up for a very difficult time
Early resolution of the extension of temporary taxes would help
We would prefer that the Governor agree to hold K-12 harmless whether the taxes are extended or not
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Major State General Fund Expenditures by AreaMajor State General Fund Expenditures by Area B-39
Dollars in Billions
1998-99 2010-11 % Increase
K-14, Proposition 98* $35.2 $49.7 41%
Higher Education (CSU and UC) $4.7 $7.4 57%
Natural Resources $1.2 $2.0 67%Natural Resources $1.2 $2.0 67%
Health and Human Services $15.3 $27.0 76%
Corrections $4.4 $9.3 111%
General Fund Revenues $57.3 $94.1 64%
* Includes state general fund and local property taxes
Sources: Legislative Analyst’s Office, State Spending Plan: 1998-99 and 2011-12 Governor’s Budget Summary
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
K-12 Education Took Biggest CutsK-12 Education Took Biggest Cuts B-40
Dollars in Billions % Change 2007-08 to
2010-112007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
K-12 Education $42.5 $35.5 $34.6 $36.3 <14.5%>
Higher Education $11.8 $11.7 $10.6 $11.6 <1.4%>
General Fund Expenditures by Major Program Area
Higher Education $11.8 $11.7 $10.6 $11.6 <1.4%>
Health and Human Services $29.7 $30.9 $25.0 $27.0 <9.3%>
Corrections and Rehabilitation $10.2 $10.3 $8.2 $9.3 <9.0%>
Natural Resources $1.9 $2.0 $1.9 $2.0 8.3%
Source: 2011-12 Governor’s Budget Summary
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Education Budget and Challenges Ahead
The Education Budget and Challenges Ahead
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Proposition 98 DilemmaThe Proposition 98 Dilemma
Proposition 98 is supposed to set a minimum funding guarantee for K-12 education and community colleges, but during a recession all bets are off
The Legislature suspended Proposition 98 for 2010-11, funding education $4.3 billion below the “minimum guarantee”
C-1
The Governor’s Budget proposes a complex plan that departs from full funding of Proposition 98 or suspension of the “minimum guarantee” to a specified level
The 2011-12 Proposition 98 dilemma: K-14 funding at the Proposition 98 “minimum guarantee” cuts funding in 2011-12 by $2 billion from the 2010-11 funded level
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Proposition 98 DilemmaThe Proposition 98 Dilemma
According to the LAO, the Proposition 98 guarantee falls to $47.5 billion in 2011-12 from $49.7 billion in the current year
The expiration of temporary taxes drives down the guarantee
In addition, baseline cost adjustments (enrollment growth, cost-of-living adjustment [COLA], and backfilling the one-time deferral savings) would
C-2
adjustment [COLA], and backfilling the one-time deferral savings) would require an additional $3.2 billion
The Governor’s Budget proposes flat funding for K-12 education if the temporary taxes are extended
The Legislature has the authority to extend the taxes; however, the Governor is calling for voter approval instead
A June 2011 ballot measure is proposed
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
The Tradeoff for K-12 EducationThe Tradeoff for K-12 Education
If the temporary taxes are extended, K-12 education would receive less than what is called for under Proposition 98
The Governor’s Budget realigns some state programs to local governments and redirects almost $6 billion to a newly created Local Revenue Fund, bypassing the General Fund and Proposition 98
Only $5 billion would flow through the General Fund, resulting in an
C-3
Only $5 billion would flow through the General Fund, resulting in an additional $2 billion for Proposition 98, which would be roughly sufficient to maintain flat funding in 2011-12
Proposition 98, however, may provide more funds to K-14 education if the economy and revenues outperform the forecast
2011-12 is expected to be a Test 1 year, which guarantees 41% of General Fund revenues to education
Unexpected revenue gains of $5 billion or more in 2011-12 would also yield an additional $2 billion for Proposition 98
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Proposition 98 FundingProposition 98 Funding C-4
Source: DOF and LAO © 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Revenue LimitsRevenue Limits
The Governor’s Budget proposes the following for revenue limits:
For 2010-11: No change to the enacted 2010-11 Budget Act levels
For 2011-12:
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Full funding for an estimated 0.22% increase in ADA
No funding increase for the estimated 1.67% statutory COLA
19.608% deficit factor, which eliminates the statutory COLA
The actual statutory COLA is dependent on data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce in April 2011 and will be updated in the May Revision
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Revenue Limit COLARevenue Limit COLA
Statutory COLA
District Type 2010-11-0.39%
2011-121.67%
C-6
(Actual) (Est.)
All Elementary Districts -$24 $102
All High School Districts -$29 $123
All Unified Districts -$25 $107
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Revenue Limit Deficit FactorsRevenue Limit Deficit Factors C-7
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Undeficited Base Revenue Limit – Example Undeficited Base Revenue Limit – Example C-8
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Base Revenue Limit After Deficit FactorBase Revenue Limit After Deficit Factor
Apply the 2011-12 deficit factor of 19.608% to the undeficited base revenue limit
Example for the Average
C-9
$1,273
$6,493
Example for the Average Unified District
= $6,493 x (1.0-0.19608)= $6,493 x 0.80392= $5,220
$5,220
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Proposed 2011-12 Funding vs. 2010-11Enacted BudgetProposed 2011-12 Funding vs. 2010-11Enacted Budget
The Governor’s Budget does not fund the 1.67% estimated COLA ($107 for unified districts)
The funded base
C-10
19.608% Deficit
$6,493
-$1,273-$1,148 17.963% Deficit
$6,386
The funded base revenue limit drops approximately $19 per ADA from the 2010-11 level
© 2011 School Services of California, Inc.
Deficit Factor Cuts Funding Below 2010-11Deficit Factor Cuts Funding Below 2010-11
The deficit factor establishes the funded base revenue limit
If the deficit factor is unchanged from one year to the next, the statutory COLA is fully funded
If it is reduced, the statutory COLA is fully funded, plus an additional amount is funded to reverse prior-year cuts
C-11
amount is funded to reverse prior-year cuts
If it is increased, the statutory COLA is not funded and an actual year-over-year cut is imposed
The Governor’s Budget does not fund the statutory COLA and imposes an additional cut of $19 per ADA, on average
This reduces revenue limit funding by roughly $113 million below the 2010-11 funded level
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