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Agenda What do we know? What do we forecast? How might we deal with the issues?
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GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly?
Dr. Conor TeljeurProf. Tom O'DowdProf. Fergus O’KellyDr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin
Dept. of Public Health & Primary Care,Trinity College Dublin
AUDGPI, 27th February 2009
Aims of the workshop:
• Estimate numbers of GPs needed to
2021
• To identify interventions that will
address workforce issues
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
Sources of information
Age profile of GPs
Buttimer Report (2006), recommendation 47:
"the HSE should implement the policy previously adopted by the Department of Health and Children to increase the annual intake of GP Trainees from the current 88 to 150 by 2008."
Training places
• Approximately 10% of trained GPs do not
practice as GPs – that represents an
investment of ~ €2.3m lost each year
• Intention to retire early:
– 13% intend to retire before 60
– 43% intend to retire before 65
Attrition
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
• No change in patient behaviour – that is,
total demand will be in proportion to the
age-sex distribution of the population
• Demography of trainees to remain stable
• Sessions and retirement age of GPs to
remain stable
Assumptions
GP numbers – demand
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
GP numbers – fixed intake/120 per annum
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
GP numbers – reduced drop-out to 5%
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
GP numbers – increase intake to 150 annually
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
Increased intake
GP numbers – increased intake + reduced drop-out
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Num
ber o
f GPs
Demand
Stable intake
Stable intake +reduced drop-out
Increased intake
Increased intake +reduced drop-out
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
% s
essi
ons
prov
ided
by
trai
nees
existing intake
increased intake
Trainee contribution to sessions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Ratio
of m
ale:
fem
ale
GPs
Ratio of male:female GPs
Impact of M:F ratio on sessions
7
8
9
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
Ave
rage
ses
sion
s pe
r GP
Agenda
• What do we know?
• What do we forecast?
• How might we deal with the issues?
Options for additional training places
• Increase role substitution - nurses
• Clinical pharmacy - bigger role
• Recognition of prior hospital experience
• Recruitment from EU & Non EU countries
• Anything else?...
Other options
