grad do highlights - University of Chicago · Roosevelt University University of Illinois at Chicago

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�� John Q. Easton Penny Bender Sebring Consortium on Chicago School Research University of Chicago

Albert L. Bennett Mark A. Smylie Roosevelt University University of Illinois at Chicago

Melissa Roderick University of Chicago

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Consortium on Chicago School Research

1313 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637

773-702-3364 fax -773-702-2010

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Report HighlightsGraduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago:A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004

January 2005

Elaine Allensworth

Forward by Duncan Chaplin

What is the likelihood that a student will graduate from or drop out of a Chicago public school?

Graduation and dropout rates are important pieces of information about the per-formance of high schools and school systems. But determining how many stu-dents graduate from or drop out of high school is far more complicated than it

might seem. There are numerous methods for calculating these rates. Depending on how the terms “graduate,” “transfer,” and “drop out” are defined, and depending on who is included in the base population of potential graduates, graduation and dropout rates can vary considerably.

Commonly used methods of calculating these rates leave much to be desired, especially when applied to Chicago’s public schools. For example, the method used by the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE) overestimates the graduation rate when large numbers of students transfer between schools, as is the case in Chicago. In recent years, many journal-ists, community groups, and social scientists have questioned the accuracy of the official graduation and dropout rates in Chicago public schools and raised concerns about the extent of racial or ethnic differences in rates of school completion. Graduation and Drop-out Trends in Chicago was written to disseminate accurate and detailed information on student outcomes in Chicago’s public schools.

This research brief is based on the findings of a full-length report, Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004. It is available for download or pur-chase from the Consortium’s web site at:

www.consortium-chicago.org

Contents of the full report include:

Methodological Issues in Calculating Graduation and Dropout Rates Systemwide Graduation and Dropout Trends

Graduation and Dropout Rates Disaggregated by Race/Ethnicity and Gender Community Differences in Graduation and Dropout Rates

School-by-School Comparisons of Graduation and Dropout Rates

•

•

•

•

•

Consortium on Chicago School Research 1313 East 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637773-702-3364 773-702-2010-fax


Consortium on Chicago School Research 1313 East 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637

HOW OUR RATES WERE CALCULATED The methods used to create graduation and dropout rates in this report are very similar to methods recently recommended by the National Center on Educa-tion Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education.1 We based our decisions about defining terms on a number of considerations, such as the requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, and the specific characteristics of Chicago Public Schools (CPS). The report includes detailed definitions of the terms and information about the ratio-nale behind these decisions.

The graduation and dropout rates are calculated by following cohorts of students over a number of years, to ascertain how many graduate or drop out. Two types of cohorts are used in this report. Freshman cohorts track first-time ninth graders to determine the percentage that graduated, dropped out, left CPS, or were still enrolled four years later. This method allows for the comparison of different high schools, and it produces the actual gradu-ation rate that the ISBE method is intended to estimate. However, the implementation of an eighth-grade promo-tion standard in CPS resulted in considerable shifting of students among different freshman cohorts, making it difficult to evaluate trends over time by comparing fresh-man cohorts. Therefore, this report also follows cohorts of 13-year-old students until age 19 to determine how many graduated or dropped out. This method is not affected by changes in grade progression, and thus provides a consis-tent comparison over time.

SELECTED FINDINGS Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago looks at graduation and dropout rates in a number of ways. The full-length report includes tables that break down these rates according to race/ethnicity and gender, community area, and high school. Some of the most important trends to note are these:

Graduation rates have been improving steadily since the early 1990s, with the exception of the first two cohorts of students subject to the eighth-grade promo-tion standards. For the last five years, dropout rates at age 16 have been declining, which suggests that graduation rates will continue to improve for the next several years.

•

John Q. Easton Executive Director Consortium on Chicago School Ressearch

Albert L. Bennett Roosevelt University


Penny Bender Sebring University of Chicago

Mark A. Smylie University of Illinois at Chicago

The Consortium on Chicago School Research aims to conduct research of high technical quality that can inform and assess policy and practice in the Chicago Public Schools. By broadly engaging local leadership in our work, and presenting our find-ings to diverse audiences, we seek to expand communication between researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. The Consortium encourages the use of research in policy action, but does not argue for particular policies or programs. Rather, we believe that good policy is most likely to result from a genuine competition of ideas informed by the best evidence that can be obtained.

Founded in 1990, the Consortium is located at the University of Chicago.

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Percent graduated by age 18Cohorts that turned 18 in 2002 and 2003

60-100 % (6)50-60 % (19)40-50 % (31)30-40 % (13)

0 to 30% (7)

Graduation Rates by Community Area

This community showed significantly larger improvements in graduation or dropout rates than the citywide average.

This community showed significantly more deterioration in graduation or dropout rates than the citywide average.

Community Area

1 Rogers Park 27 East Garfield 53 West Pullman

2 West Ridge 28 Near West Side 54 Riverdale

3 Uptown 29 North Lawndale 55 Hegewisch

4 Lincoln Square 30 South Lawndale 56 Garfield Ridge

5 North Center 31 Lower West Side 57 Archer Heights

6 Lake View 32 Loop 58 Brighton Park

7 Lincoln Park 33 Near South Side 59 McKinley Park

8 Near North Side 34 Armour Square 60 Bridgeport

9 Edison Park 35 Douglas 61 New City

10 Norwood Park 36 Oakland 62 West Elsdon

11 Jefferson Park 37 Fuller Park 63 Gage Park

12 Forest Glen 38 Grand Boulevard 64 Clearing

13 North Park 39 Kenwood 65 West Lawn

14 Albany Park 40 Washington Park 66 Chicago Lawn

15 Portage Park 41 Hyde Park 67 West Englewood

16 Irving Park 42 Woodlawn 68 Englewood

17 Dunning 43 South Shore 69 Greater Grand Crossing

18 Montclare 44 Chatham 70 Ashburn

19 Belmont Cragin 45 Avalon Park 71 Auburn Gresham

20 Hermosa 46 South Chicago 72 Beverly

21 Avondale 47 Burnside 73 Washington Heights

22 Logan Square 48 Calumet Heights 74 Mount Greenwood

23 Humboldt Park 49 Roseland 75 Morgan Park

24 West Town 50 Pullman 76 O’Hare

25 Austin 51 South Deering 77 Edgewater

26 West Garfield 52 East Side

figure 4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Graduation and Dropout Rates for Age-13 Cohorts of CPS Students

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Perc

ent

51.1% 51.7%54.0%

48.0%50.0% 49.8%51.0%

48.7%

33.2%

37.6%

41.2%

39.9%

40.6%

35.6%

40.0%

40.8%

39.6%

Cohort

37.6%39.3% 40.6%

42.5%40.8%

42.9% 44.5%

40.9%43.0%

18.8% 18.0% 17.7% 17.1% 18.2% 18.3% 17.2% 16.4%14.0% 13.0%

11.1%

Graduated by age 18

Graduated by age 19 Dropped out by age 18

Dropped out by age 16

Of CPS students who were 13 years old in 1998, 54 percent graduated from CPS by age 19 in 2004. Simi-larly, of CPS students who were freshmen in 1999, 54 percent graduated four years later in 2003. Among boys, only 39 percent of African-Americans graduated by age 19, compared to 51 percent of Lati-nos, 58 percent of whites, and 76 percent of Asians. Graduation rates among girls were much higher: 57 percent of African-Americans graduated by age 19, 65 percent of Latinas, 71 percent of whites, and 85 percent of Asians.

Over the past seven years, African-American students showed less improvement in graduation and dropout rates than other groups of students. Consistent with Chicago’s racially segregated neighborhoods, the report finds that communities on Chicago’s mostly African-American South Side saw less improvement in graduation and dropout rates than did North Side communities.

There are large differences in graduation rates across schools in Chicago. Many of the new charter and magnet schools, as well as several neighborhood high schools, show exceptionally high graduation rates, beyond what would be expected based on the charac-teristics of their incoming freshman.

•

•

•

•

1 National Institute of Statistical Sciences and Educa-tion Statistics Services Institute Task Force on Gradua-tion, Completion, and Dropout Indicators. 2004. Final report (NCES 2005-105). Online at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2005/2005105/pdf.

HOW OUR RATES WERE CALCULATED The methods used to create graduation and dropout rates in this report are very similar to methods recently recommended by the National Center on Educa-tion Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education.1 We based our decisions about defining terms on a number of considerations, such as the requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, and the specific characteristics of Chicago Public Schools (CPS). The report includes detailed definitions of the terms and information about the ratio-nale behind these decisions.

The graduation and dropout rates are calculated by following cohorts of students over a number of years, to ascertain how many graduate or drop out. Two types of cohorts are used in this report. Freshman cohorts track first-time ninth graders to determine the percentage that graduated, dropped out, left CPS, or were still enrolled four years later. This method allows for the comparison of different high schools, and it produces the actual gradu-ation rate that the ISBE method is intended to estimate. However, the implementation of an eighth-grade promo-tion standard in CPS resulted in considerable shifting of students among different freshman cohorts, making it difficult to evaluate trends over time by comparing fresh-man cohorts. Therefore, this report also follows cohorts of 13-year-old students until age 19 to determine how many graduated or dropped out. This method is not affected by changes in grade progression, and thus provides a consis-tent comparison over time.

SELECTED FINDINGS Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago looks at graduation and dropout rates in a number of ways. The full-length report includes tables that break down these rates according to race/ethnicity and gender, community area, and high school. Some of the most important trends to note are these:

Graduation rates have been improving steadily since the early 1990s, with the exception of the first two cohorts of students subject to the eighth-grade promo-tion standards. For the last five years, dropout rates at age 16 have been declining, which suggests that graduation rates will continue to improve for the next several years.

•

John Q. Easton Executive Director Consortium on Chicago School Ressearch

Albert L. Bennett Roosevelt University


Penny Bender Sebring University of Chicago

Mark A. Smylie University of Illinois at Chicago

The Consortium on Chicago School Research aims to conduct research of high technical quality that can inform and assess policy and practice in the Chicago Public Schools. By broadly engaging local leadership in our work, and presenting our find-ings to diverse audiences, we seek to expand communication between researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. The Consortium encourages the use of research in policy action, but does not argue for particular policies or programs. Rather, we believe that good policy is most likely to result from a genuine competition of ideas informed by the best evidence that can be obtained.

Founded in 1990, the Consortium is located at the University of Chicago.

1

5

1920

25

59

58

6340

68

42

67

52

54

12

34

51

56

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

1011 13

14

15 1617

18

21

22

23 24

26 2728

29

30

31

32

33

35

36

3738

39

41

43

4445

46

47 48

49

50

5355

57

60

61

62

64

65 6669

7071

72 73

74

75

77

Percent graduated by age 18Cohorts that turned 18 in 2002 and 2003

60-100 % (6)50-60 % (19)40-50 % (31)30-40 % (13)

0 to 30% (7)

Graduation Rates by Community Area

This community showed significantly larger improvements in graduation or dropout rates than the citywide average.

This community showed significantly more deterioration in graduation or dropout rates than the citywide average.

Community Area

1 Rogers Park 27 East Garfield 53 West Pullman

2 West Ridge 28 Near West Side 54 Riverdale

3 Uptown 29 North Lawndale 55 Hegewisch

4 Lincoln Square 30 South Lawndale 56 Garfield Ridge

5 North Center 31 Lower West Side 57 Archer Heights

6 Lake View 32 Loop 58 Brighton Park

7 Lincoln Park 33 Near South Side 59 McKinley Park

8 Near North Side 34 Armour Square 60 Bridgeport

9 Edison Park 35 Douglas 61 New City

10 Norwood Park 36 Oakland 62 West Elsdon

11 Jefferson Park 37 Fuller Park 63 Gage Park

12 Forest Glen 38 Grand Boulevard 64 Clearing

13 North Park 39 Kenwood 65 West Lawn

14 Albany Park 40 Washington Park 66 Chicago Lawn

15 Portage Park 41 Hyde Park 67 West Englewood

16 Irving Park 42 Woodlawn 68 Englewood

17 Dunning 43 South Shore 69 Greater Grand Crossing

18 Montclare 44 Chatham 70 Ashburn

19 Belmont Cragin 45 Avalon Park 71 Auburn Gresham

20 Hermosa 46 South Chicago 72 Beverly

21 Avondale 47 Burnside 73 Washington Heights

22 Logan Square 48 Calumet Heights 74 Mount Greenwood

23 Humboldt Park 49 Roseland 75 Morgan Park

24 West Town 50 Pullman 76 O’Hare

25 Austin 51 South Deering 77 Edgewater

26 West Garfield 52 East Side

figure 4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Graduation and Dropout Rates for Age-13 Cohorts of CPS Students

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Perc

ent

51.1% 51.7%54.0%

48.0%50.0% 49.8%51.0%

48.7%

33.2%

37.6%

41.2%

39.9%

40.6%

35.6%

40.0%

40.8%

39.6%

Cohort

37.6%39.3% 40.6%

42.5%40.8%

42.9% 44.5%

40.9%43.0%

18.8% 18.0% 17.7% 17.1% 18.2% 18.3% 17.2% 16.4%14.0% 13.0%

11.1%

Graduated by age 18

Graduated by age 19 Dropped out by age 18

Dropped out by age 16

Of CPS students who were 13 years old in 1998, 54 percent graduated from CPS by age 19 in 2004. Simi-larly, of CPS students who were freshmen in 1999, 54 percent graduated four years later in 2003. Among boys, only 39 percent of African-Americans graduated by age 19, compared to 51 percent of Lati-nos, 58 percent of whites, and 76 percent of Asians. Graduation rates among girls were much higher: 57 percent of African-Americans graduated by age 19, 65 percent of Latinas, 71 percent of whites, and 85 percent of Asians.

Over the past seven years, African-American students showed less improvement in graduation and dropout rates than other groups of students. Consistent with Chicago’s racially segregated neighborhoods, the report finds that communities on Chicago’s mostly African-American South Side saw less improvement in graduation and dropout rates than did North Side communities.

There are large differences in graduation rates across schools in Chicago. Many of the new charter and magnet schools, as well as several neighborhood high schools, show exceptionally high graduation rates, beyond what would be expected based on the charac-teristics of their incoming freshman.

•

•

•

•

1 National Institute of Statistical Sciences and Educa-tion Statistics Services Institute Task Force on Gradua-tion, Completion, and Dropout Indicators. 2004. Final report (NCES 2005-105). Online at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2005/2005105/pdf.

��

��

��

��

��

�� John Q. Easton Penny Bender Sebring Consortium on Chicago School Research University of Chicago

Albert L. Bennett Mark A. Smylie Roosevelt University University of Illinois at Chicago


��

��

Consortium on Chicago School Research

1313 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637

773-702-3364 fax -773-702-2010

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Report HighlightsGraduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago:A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004

January 2005

Elaine Allensworth

Forward by Duncan Chaplin

What is the likelihood that a student will graduate from or drop out of a Chicago public school?

Graduation and dropout rates are important pieces of information about the per-formance of high schools and school systems. But determining how many stu-dents graduate from or drop out of high school is far more complicated than it

might seem. There are numerous methods for calculating these rates. Depending on how the terms “graduate,” “transfer,” and “drop out” are defined, and depending on who is included in the base population of potential graduates, graduation and dropout rates can vary considerably.

Commonly used methods of calculating these rates leave much to be desired, especially when applied to Chicago’s public schools. For example, the method used by the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE) overestimates the graduation rate when large numbers of students transfer between schools, as is the case in Chicago. In recent years, many journal-ists, community groups, and social scientists have questioned the accuracy of the official graduation and dropout rates in Chicago public schools and raised concerns about the extent of racial or ethnic differences in rates of school completion. Graduation and Drop-out Trends in Chicago was written to disseminate accurate and detailed information on student outcomes in Chicago’s public schools.

This research brief is based on the findings of a full-length report, Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004. It is available for download or pur-chase from the Consortium’s web site at:


Contents of the full report include:

Methodological Issues in Calculating Graduation and Dropout Rates Systemwide Graduation and Dropout Trends

Graduation and Dropout Rates Disaggregated by Race/Ethnicity and Gender Community Differences in Graduation and Dropout Rates

School-by-School Comparisons of Graduation and Dropout Rates

•

•

•

•

•

Consortium on Chicago School Research 1313 East 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637773-702-3364 773-702-2010-fax


Consortium on Chicago School Research 1313 East 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637

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grad do highlights - University of Chicago · Roosevelt University University of Illinois at Chicago