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Graduate Institute
An Unstable Ecosystem: Historical reflections on Conflict and Arms in Sudan
Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey
Overview
• International and regional dynamics
• Four conflicts and Sudan’s fragile ecosystem
• The role of small arms and light weapons in Sudan
• Options for promoting human security in Sudan
International and regional dynamics
• Fragile neighbours and state collapse
• Foreign and domestic armed groups
• Spill-over and blowback
Four conflicts in Sudan’s fragile ecosystem
• North-South: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia (PDF) versus Black/Animist rebels (SPLA). Peace agreement (CPA) in 2005 and UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) involved.
• North-West: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia (Janjaweed) versus Black/Muslim rebels (JEM/SLA and their factions). Peace agreement (DPA) in 2006 and African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) involved.
• North-East: Arab/Islamic-backed army and militia versus Arab/Muslim rebels (Eastern Front). Peace agreement (ESPA) in 2006 brokered by Eritrea. No UN mission involved.
• Ethnic conflicts: Successive conflicts between Darfurian/Southern/Eastern pastoral/agriculturist communities. Multiple local ceasefires brokered and no UN mission involved.
The role of small arms and light weapons
• Nineteenth and early twentieth century trickle
• Cold war flood and the US/Egyptian connection
• Regional rivalries and China
• Oil and the advent of domestic production
• Stirring-up ethnic tensions
• Approximately 2.6-3.3 million weapons in circulation
Options for promoting human security in Sudan
• No magic bullet• Anticipate flashpoints• Enhance international coherence• Regional solutions imperative• Hybrid AMIS/UN force in Darfur• Ensure humanitarian access• Space for dialogue with armed groups• No fly zones and safe havens• Community security, SSR, disarmament• Local capacities for security
enhancement