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Graham & Dodd meet Edwards & Magee
MTA Education Seminar
May 20th 2005
Larry M. Berman CFA, CMT
Combining Fundamental & Technical Analysis
to Maximize Portfolio Returns
Graham & Dodd meet Edwards & Magee
• Goal beat Mr. Market• Screen fund & quant.• Trade technically
Beat Mr. Market
• Understand bogey• Timeframe• Investor/Trader• Develop toolbox
Characteristics of Market
• P/E high low?• Earnings momentum• Economy• Inflation/Interest rates• Geopolitical• Monetary/fiscal policy
• Bull or Bear?• Oversold/Overbought• Seasonality• Sentiment• Accumulation• Distribution• Breadth
Characteristics of Stock
• BETA• 50-25-25 rule• S&P 500 (60%) of stocks
have beta above 0.9• S&P 400 (66%) of stocks
have beta above 0.9• S&P 600 (83%) of stocks
have beta above 0.9
• V or U tops-bottoms• Volatility• Normal vs. today• False breakouts• Support/resistance• Volume patterns
Growth Characteristics & Tools
• Momentum• Trend• Relative strength
• Multiple expansion• PEG• GARP
Value Characteristics & Tools
• Sentiment• Chart patterns
(bottoms & bases)• Oversold
• Under owned• Market to book value• Extremeness
Market Cycle
• Seasonal patterns• Business cycle
Characteristics of Market:Trend
Timeframe
38.2-61.8%
Higher highs?
Higher lows?
Support holding?
Res. breaking?
Characteristics of Market:Momentum
Timeframe
Quantify OS/OB
m/m 5%
q/q 10%
Divergence
Characteristics of Market:Volume
10-Day Arms
55-Day Arms
Imbalances
Relative
Characteristics of Market:Volume
Imbalances
Accumulation
Distribution
Intensity
Relative
Extreme
Characteristics of Market:Breadth
Adv-Dec Line
Trend
Momentum
Extreme
Relative
Characteristics of Market:Breadth
% > 200-day avg
Trend
Momentum
Extreme 20-80%
Relative
Characteristics of Market:Breadth
Net 52W Hi-Lo
Trend
Momentum
Extreme 2Sig
–400+800
Relative
Characteristics of Market:Breadth
Index specific
%MC Adv/Dec
Wkly 52W Hi-Lo
Wkly Accumulation
Wkly Distribution
Characteristics of Market:Breadth
%MC > 50-Day Avg
%MC > 200-Day Avg
%MC < RSI 30%MC > RSI 70
Characteristics of Market:Sentiment
VIX-VXN
Trend
Momentum
Relative
Extremes
Characteristics
Characteristics of Market:Sentiment
Put/Call volume
Trend
Momentum
Relative
Extremes
Characteristics
Characteristics of Market:Sentiment
AAII
Cons, II, MV
Relative
Extremes
Characteristics
Characteristics of Market: Summary
• P/E = modestly high• Fwd earn mom. <10%• Economy = softer• Inflation = rising• Interest rates = rising• Geopolitical = neg• Fiscal policy = neg
• Late stage bull/early bear
• Oversold
• Seasonality = pos
• Sentiment = pos
• Accumulation = weak
• Distribution = strong
• Breadth = weak
• Volume = weak
Growth Characteristics & Tools
• Momentum• Trend• Relative strength
• Multiple expansion• PEG• GARP
Growth Tools: Momentum
• ROC• MACD• Relative strength
Growth Tools: Momentum
• ROC• MACD• Relative strength
Growth Tools: Momentum
• ROC• MACD• Relative strength
Growth Tools: Trend
Sup/Res holds?
Higher/highs
Lower/lows
Time frame
Value Characteristics & Tools
• Sentiment• Chart patterns
(bottoms & bases)• Oversold
• Under owned• Market to book value• Extremeness
Value Tools: Bottom Patterns (Bases)
Double bottom
Ascending
H & S bottom
Value Tools: Sentiment
Insiders
IPO/Buyback
% Inst Own
Value Tools: OB/OS
Buy 13Wk OS
OB poor entry
Trading Cycles
• Price movements are a series of cycles.
• Accumulation phase• Distribution phase
Trading Cycles
ACCUMULATION
DISTRIBUTION
BEAR BASE
BULL CONS
Trading Cycles
ACCUMULATION
DISTRIBUTION
BEAR BASE
BULL CONS
Trading Cycles
OVERBOUGHT
OVERSOLD OVERSOLD
Trading Cycles
Quantify
Extremes
Accumulation
Distribution
Relative rank
Trading Cycles: S&P 500 Financials
Trading Cycles: S&P 500 Technology
Value: Basing
MSFT breaking out of base pattern
Growth: Momentum
Growth: Momentum
GLW strong momentum, but OB
Graham & Dodd meet Edwards & Magee
• Goal beat Mr. Market• Screen fund & quant.• Trade technically• Timeframe• Investor/Trader• Develop toolbox
Roll The Dice