Green River Water Rights Distribution Model (MODSIM)

Update

ByDivision of Water Rights

8-27-12

Green River Water Rights Distribution Model (MODSIM)Simulates the daily distribution of flows in the Green River by allocating available supply to competing demands based on water rights priorities.

• The model has been calibrated to the hydrologic conditions of the study period of 1970 to 2005 using observed gaged flows at Green and Jensen as a reference.

Recap of Improvements and Accomplishments Implemented to the model.

A three day lag routine was implemented in the model which improves the model’s statistical fit and mass balance of observed flows versus predicted flows

Correlation Coefficient (R2) of 97.8% at Green Gage and 99.2% at Jensen gage

Current (2010) estimated demands or depletions along the main stem of the Green River and White River (Utes Tribal rights) used for the calibration process were estimated at about 68,823.14 AF per season.

• The network structure was revised by grouping water rights by priority dates serving each irrigation demand node.

• Water rights in each reach were grouped in three main groups based on priority.• The first group includes water rights with priority

prior to 1922. • The second group includes water rights with

priorities between 1922 and 1957.• The third group includes water rights with

priorities of 1958 to present.

• All links in the network delivering water to a demand node were constrained not only by volume (max seasonal capacity) but also by daily flow (cfs) limitations based on the sum of the water rights contained in the link.

• Two scenarios were ran: Current Scenario and Full Scenario. • The Current Scenario is the baseline scenario that

simulates existing conditions in the river representing water supplies, demands, and developed water rights along the main stem of the Green River.

• The Full Scenario simulates the impact of full development of approved rights on the system up to Utah’s portion of the Colorado River Compact.

UTAH WATER RIGHTS DIVERSION AND DEPLETION SUMMARY (Green River Water Rights Distribution Model)

Demand by Reach Current Depletion (AF) Potential Depletion (AF)

Reach 1

Flaming Gorge to Yampa 3,012.52 4,735.14

Reach 2

Yampa to White River* 36,782.61 144,604.74

Reach 3

White River to Colorado 29,028.01 155,086.50

TOTAL 68,823.14 304,426.38*includes all tribal current and/or potential depletion

UTAH WATER RIGHTS DIVERSION AND DEPLETION SUMMARY

Updated: 07/9/2012

Current Irrigated or Inundated Acres

Current Diversion

Sole Supply (Irrigation Acres)

Diversion Limit Flow

Current Depletion

Potential Depletion

(af)

Node_Name Acres AF Acres AF CFS AF AF               

Demand_Irr_AboveYampa 203.00 609.00 644.50 1,933.51 22.19 424.07 1,346.37

Ponds_Demand_AboveYampa 283.00 849.00 700.00 2,100.00 27.00 608.45 1,505.00

Demand_YampaToJensen 2,614.27 10,437.43 6,922.24 26,376.90 231.61 7,002.64 18,634.15

Demand_JensenToDuchesne 7,084.89 33,311.58 17,915.97 107,234.76 424.82 25,779.97 67,804.38

Demand_DuchesneToSandWash 970.00 2,370.00 10,555.00 45,680.00 155.79 1,488.00 44,798.00

Demand_SandWashToGreenGage 7,535.14 45,555.54 18,504.52 111,728.62 350.49 23,308.04 49,417.53

GreenRGageToColo 1,223.94 7,831.65 1,782.61 13,609.99 47.55 4,231.97 7,270.97

Non-Consumptive_belowPrice         620.00    

PotentialUteGreen & Tributaries*     5,085.00 20,340.00 72.64 0.00 14,513.61

Ute Municipal   4,000.00   10,000.00   4,000.00 6,000.00

PotentialUteWhite     12,833.00 51,332.00 183.33 0.00 36,627.95

Demand_fromTributariesWhite**     359.00 1,436.00 5.13 0.00 1,024.66

CO_BrownsPark 660.00 1,980.00 660.00 1,980.00   1,980.00 1,883.77

TOTAL 20,574.25 106,944.20 75,961.84 393,751.78 2,140.54 68,823.14 250,826.38               

PROPOSED NPP BELOW GREEN RIVER GAGE       53,600.00 74.05 0.00 53,600.00

GRAND TOTAL 20,574.25 106,944.20 75,961.84 447,351.78 2,214.60 68,823.14 304,426.38

               

*Potential_UteGreen and Tributaries includes potential diversion from Sweet Water and Bitter Creek tributaries. **Node "Demand_fromTributariesWhite" is the potential tribal demands from Hill Creek and Willow creek  

Potential Use

Total Allocation 1,369,000 acft

Current Use 1,000,000 acft

Remaining Use 369,000 acft

Navajo Reserved Right 81,500 acft

Maximum Potential 287,500 acft

Modeled Potential 304,000 acft

Model Scenarios and Output Results

• The model generally under predicts flows at the Green River by an average of 70,159 AF a year (less than 2% of the average yearly flows over the 36 years of study)

• The model under predicted the flows at Jensen by an average of 16,465 AF per year (0.54% of the observed yearly average).

• During peak flow periods the model tends to over predict the flows.

• Base flows are slightly under-predicted.

Preliminary analysis of the output from the Current Scenario shows that:

• The MODSIM model predicts a total of 287 days with flows below 1300 cfs at the Green Gage versus 357 observed days.

• A total of 246 days were observed to fall below 1300 cfs during the irrigation season (Apr-Oct) while 285 days were predicted by the model.

• There were 110 days of observed flows below 1300 cfs during the non-irrigation (Nov-Mar) season and only 2 days were predicted

• The discrepancy of # days during the non-irrigation season likely due to issues encountered by low water temperature during winter days, possibly ice formation on the observation wells causing the flows to show large variation from one day to the next.

Green River Gage Summary of Predicted MODSIM Results - AF Amount on Days Below 1300 CFS ( 7-10-12)

 

  Current Scenario (69k depletion) Full Potential (304k depletion)  

Year #days

AF Amount needed to make up

minimum flow

Minimum Flow (cfs)

Average flow(cfs)

#days

AF Amount needed to make up

minimum flow

Minimum Flow (cfs)

Average flow(cfs)

 

1972 2 142 1233 1263 5 2915 917 1005  

1974 0 0 0 0 2 421 1102 1193  

1977 1 4 1297 1297 10 3735 894 1111  

1978 0 0 0 0 3 494 1204 1216  

1980 0 0 0 0 5 1756 998 1122  

1981 0 0 0 0 13 4834 748 1112  

1987 0 0 0 0 1 72 1263 1263  

1988 10 487 1256 1275 31 16306 727 1034  

1989 21 6149 1051 1152 62 44159 558 940  

1990 37 13013 1033 1122 68 61150 454 846  

1992 0 0 0 0 30 7666 1041 1170  

1994 0 0 0 0 63 19385 1010 1144  

2000 0 0 0 0 40 20055 871 1047  

2001 68 14483 1052 1192 97 91348 474 825  

2002 92 68629 735 923 116 155645 273 623  

2003 50 21377 879 1084 111 92121 349 881  

2004 6 310 1250 1273 56 32801 723 1004                     

Total 287 124,594     713 554,863

Average: 3,500 Average 15,500      

Columns key: #days: is the number of days that the flows on the reach flows below 1300 cfs AF Amount needed to make up minimum flow on Reach: is the total sum of the acre-feet of water needed to reach1300 cfs minimum on the low flow days for the year. Minimum Flow: is the lowest flow reached during the days that flows were below 1300cfs for the year.Average cfs Flow: is the average flow of the low flow days reached during the year.

Output data from the USBR Green River model portion of the CRSS Basin study will be integrated into MODSIM to simulate future development scenarios build-out potentialprobable worst case demands or any other scenario as

deemed necessary by the GRUWAT technical group.

Continue to run and analyze various scenarios as needed.

Continue working with the model documentation to clarify how the model works and to provide the necessary information about the structure of the model and its inputs.

Task in Development

Utah Work Plan

• 2010-2011 , Develop model

• 2010-2012 , Analyze Model Results

• 2012-2014 , Obtain Additional Authority

• 2014-2015 , Implement Legal Protection

No Scenario HydrologyMODSIM Utah

DemandsUpstream fromUtah Demands Purpose Status

1MODSIMCalibration

1970-2005 - Historical UT Current Current Model Calibration Completed

2 Current 1970-2005 - Historical UT Current Current Baseline Completed

3FutureDemands

1970-2005 - Historical UT Future Current Baseline Completed

4Current / NewOperation

1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa

UT Current2010 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"

Analyze Utah’sCurrent demands withNew operational rules

Waiting On Datafrom BOR

5Future / NewOperation

1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa

UT Future 2010 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"

Analyze Utah’s futuredemands with newoperational rules

Waiting On Datafrom BOR

6Future Total /New Operation

1970-2005 Historicalwith modified GreenRiver Basin ModelReleases for FlamingGorge & Yampa

UT Future 2060 Demands fromthe "2007 ColoradoDemand Schedule"

Analyze the totalPotential futureconditions fromall States

Waiting On Datafrom BOR