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A tool to assist owners and operators in
Reducing the emission of Green house gases through more effective scheduling
of the fleet
NORWEGIAN MARITIME SOLUTIONS
John Colletts alle 117, N-0870 Oslo, Norway.
Tel: + 47 / 22 95 08 70 Fax: + 47 / 22 95 08 71 Mob: + 47 90 07 13 53
e-mail: [email protected]
Contact: Erik Stavseth
www.shipstrategy.com
GreenerScheduling4004a module in Route4004
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 2
Emissions from ships is an increasingly important factor to takeinto account for all shipowning and operating companies
� Shipping activities contribute significantly to the air pollution all over the world.
� Gases that effect climate change include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Ship engines also produce other air pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), particulate matter, and sulphur dioxide (SO2).
� The amount of emissions produced is primarily a function of
– the amount of fuel consumed,
– the characteristics of the fuel,
– the engine technology employed, and
– any post-combustion emission controls in place.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 3
The shipping industry is a small contributor to the total volumeof atmospheric emissions compared to road vehicles and air
transport….But still, the industry will make its efforts to reduce emissions
Source: International Chamber of Shipping
Shipping probably accounts for around 4% of global CO2.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 4
In terms of energy consumption, shipping also compares very favorably with other transport modes.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 5
Fuel costs now account for up to 70% of operating costs
� Shipowners therefore have a strong incentive to redu ce their fuel consumption
� The industry has also made efforts to increase fuel efficiency as a way of reducing shipping's environmental impact. Contin uing developments in engine, hull and propeller design a nd the use oflarger ships have been helping to deliver greater e fficiencies in fuel oil consumption
� Route4004 and GreenerScheduling4004 are tools that will minimizefuel consumption and thus fuel emissions
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 6
International regulations: IMO is taking a lead in setting newlevels
� There have been significant improvements in engine efficiency and hull design, and the use of ships with larger cargo carrying capacities have led to a reduction in emissions and an increas e in fuel efficiency.
� There is worldwide concern about atmospheric pollut ion and global warming and the shipping industry has been playing its part in high level discussions at IMO on reducing ships' emissio ns.
� The major task for the future is to improve the qua lity of fuel oil supplied to ships by the oil companies, the sulphur content of which is relatively high.
� IMO is expected to adopt a number of important amen dments to annex VI of the IMO MARPOL Convention (which regulates ai r emissions),which would introduce more stringent controls on NO x and gradually reduce the global limit for SOx emissions to 0.5% su lphur content in fuel.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 7
Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC)58 – October 2008
� The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has appro ved proposed amendments to the MARPOL Annex VI regulations to re duce harmful emissions from ships.
� Sulphur– The main changes would see a progressive reduction in sulphur oxide
(SOx) emissions from ships, with the global sulphur cap reduced initially to 3.50% (from the current 4.50%, effective from 1 Jan uary 2012; then progressively to 0.50 %, effective from 1 January 2 020, subject to a feasibility review to be completed no later than 20 18.
The limits applicable in Sulphur Emission Control Ar eas (SECAs) would be reduced to 1.00%, beginning on 1 March 2010 (from t he current 1.50 %); being further reduced to 0.10 % , effective from 1 January 2015.
� NOx– Progressive reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emis sions from marine
engines were also agreed, with the most stringent c ontrols on so-called "Tier III" engines, i.e. those installed on ships c onstructed on or after 1 January 2016, operating in Emission control Areas.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 8
Introduction of new indices
� CO2 Design index
– Re-named Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)
� CO2 Operational Index
– Energy Efficiency Operational Index (EEOI)
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 9
Short-term measures recommended by IMO
� Improvement of specific fuel consumption� Energy Efficiency Design and Management Plan/Using a Test Mode for
estimating CO2-index of new-build ships� Onshore power supply� Use of wind power� Voluntary/mandatory requirements to report CO2 inde x values,
information exchange/outreach and rating performanc e of ships and operators
� Strict limitations on leakage rates of refrigerant gases; •vessel speed reductions
� Measures to improve traffic control, fleet manageme nt, cargo handling operations and energy efficiency.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 10
Ship GHG emissions high on agenda at IMO environment meeting July 2009
� The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is expect ed to agree on a package of technical and operational measures to re duce greenhouse gases (GHGs) from international shipping and to hol d an in-depth debate on possible market-based instruments to prov ide incentives for the shipping industry, when it meets for its 59th s ession from 13 to 17 July 2009, at the IMO Headquarters in London.
� Energy Efficiency Design Index for new ships
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 11
Assessment of Emissions Reduction Potential
DESIGN (New ships)Saving of CO2/tonne-
mileCombined Combined
Concept, speed & capability 2% to 50%
10% to 50%
25% to 75%
Hull and superstructure 2% to 20%
Power and propulsion systems 5% to 15%
Low-carbon fuels 5% to 15%
Renewable energy 1% to 10%
Exhaust gas CO2 reduction 0%
OPERATION (All ships)
Fleet management, logistics & incentives 5% to 50%
10% to 50%Voyage optimization 1% to 10%
Energy management 1% to 10%
GreenerScheduling4004 will be an
important tool to achieve these savings
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 12
World Fleet Fuel Consumption (2007)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Fue
l Con
sum
ptio
n (M
illio
n to
ns)
This study
IMO Expert Group (Freight-Trend), 2007
Corbett and Köhler (Freight-Trend), JGR, 2003
Eyring et al., JGR, 2005 part 1 + 2
Endresen et al., JGR, 2007 (not corrected for comparison)
Endresen et al (Freight-Trend)., JGR, 2007
IEA Total marine fuel sales
IEA Int'l Marine Fuel sales
Point Estimates
This study (Freight trend)
Freight-Trend Eyring et al., JGR, 2005
EIA bunker
Bottom-up(Activity-based)
estimates
Top-down(Fuel-sales)
data
2007 Low bound Best High bound
Total fuel consumption 279 333 400
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 13
Emissions Summary (2007)
13
Ship Exhaust Refrigerant Transport of Crude oil
Total
CO2 1050 - - 1050
CH4 0.10 - 0.14** 0.24
N2O 0.03 - - 0.03
HFC - 0.0004 - 0.0004
PFC - - - -
SF6 - - - -
NOx 25 - - 25
NMVOC 0.8 - 2.3 3.1
CO 2.5 - - 2.5
PM 1.8 - - 1.8
SOx 15 - - 15
Table 3-11 – Summary of emissions (million tons) from total shipping 2007*
* HFC numbers for 2003. Transport of Crude oil numbers for 2006.** Highly uncertain.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 14
GreenerScheduling4004
� GreenerScheduling4004 is a software program that will estimate emissions a fleet of vessels generate when it is sc heduled on a commercial basis.
– Trades and cargoes are specified by load port, disc harge port, cargo intake, freight rate etc
– Ships are specified by speed, fuel consumption, dwt , NOX, CO2, SO2 and other parameters.
– Route4004 will first calculate all voyages with day s at sea, days in port, cargo loaded, freight revenue and TC result pr day for each voyage.
– GreenerScheduling4004 will then calculate the total amount of fuel consumed and the total kwh output of engines
– Estimate the emissions based on data for the fuel t ype and the engine specifications.
– If costs for emissions are specified, GreenerScheduling4004 will take this into consideration when finding an optimal schedule for the fleet.
� In a study by Marintek from 2000, it is estimated th at more effective scheduling can reduce emissions substantially by upto 40 % and also contribute to a much higher income on tc basis.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 15
Key Driving Variables (based on IPCC SRES scenarios)
Category Variable Related Elements
EconomyShipping transport demand
(tonne-miles/year)Population, global and regional economic growth, mo dal shifts, sectoral demand shifts.
Transport efficiency
Transport efficiency (MJ/tonne-mile) – depends on fleet
composition, ship technologyand operation
Ship design, propulsion advancements, vessel speed, regulation aimed at achieving other objectives but that have a GHG emissions consequence.
Energy Shipping fuel carbon fraction
(gC/MJ fuel energy)Cost and availability of fuels (e.g., use of residu al fuel, distillates, LNG, biofuels, or other fuels).
Different values applied to three categories of ships:•Coastwise shipping - Ships used in regional (short sea) shipping; •Ocean-going shipping - Larger ships suitable for intercontinental trade; and,•Container ships (all sizes).
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 16
Stabilisation Scenarios
• Stabilisation of atmospheric CO 2concentrations by the end of the 21st century will require significant reductions in future global CO 2emissions.
• With 550 ppm , a target of 2 °Cwould be exceeded, and 450 ppmwould result in a 50% likelihood of achieving this target.
• If ship emissions grow as the baseline scenarios and if all other sources follow the 450 ppm stabilisation pathway, then shipping contributes 12-18% of 2050 CO2..
12-18 % of the WRE 450 scenario
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 17
Route4004 is an integrated software program containing thefollowing modules:
� VOYEST4004
– A comprehensive voyage estimator that calculates TC equivalent and other key parameters
� POOL4004
– Allows a number of calculations of chartering pool arrangements, pool points, profit for distribution etc
� OPTI4004
– Is a powerful optimizer that can start with a blank schedule and thereafter find a schedule allocating cargoes to ships so that the fleet result gives the best profit but at the same time respecting all con straints
� GreenerScheduling4004
– Is a module that can calculate emissions and the co sts of emissions in a commercial framework
� VOYACC4004
– Is a complete voyage accounting module that allows recording actual info such as cargo loaded, time in port etc.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 18
Efficiency Improvements
� Consideration of scale, speed, design, and operatio n
18
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 19
NOx Emissions Factors
19
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 20
The first objective: Operators must be able to estimate whatemissions their scheduling produce
� Few shipping companies have had any focus on the em issions or pollutions that their operation create.
– User can check consistency with MARPOL Annex VI 73/78 sta ndard
� GreenerScheduling4004 will enable operators to estimate the emissions based on their projected trading.
� By using GreenerScheduling4004 the operators can project what impact new governmental or national tariffs on emis sions will have on their operation
� Scheduling of ships have traditionally taken into a ccount trivial factors such as port costs, canal charges, fuel expenses an d handling costs. Now they will also have to deal with cost of emissi ons . These costs will take various forms that will make scheduling a lot more complicated. This is where GreenerScheduling4004 will assist.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 21
SOx Emissions Factors
21
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 22
The scheduling task will get more complicated
Contract and spot cargoes
Fleet andTC ships
Task: Find a schedule for the fleet that maximizes the total TC result taking into account the cost of emissions
Traditional factors to include:
Port costs
Fuel cost
Handling costs
Canal costs
NEW FACTORS to include:
Cost of emissions
GreenerScheduling4004
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 23
Modal comparison of CO2 efficiency
Range of typical CO2 efficiencies for various cargo carriers
0 50 100 150 200 250
Road
Rail
RoRo / Vehicle
Product
LPG
Container
Bulk
Chemical
Reefer
General Cargo
LNG
Crude
g CO2 / ton*km
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 24
GreenerScheduling4004– Steps in typical usage
� Step 1 – Make a commercial fleet schedule (1 to 12 m onths period)
– Calculating voyage estimates for all cargoes and sh ips in the fleet
� Step 2 – Calculate the quantity of emissions from su ch schedule
– Provide management with an estimate of what polluta nts the fleet is generating
� Step 3 – Calculate the cost of emissions
– These can be costs as they are today or future expe cted costs that will be imposed on the shipping industry
� Step 4 – Let GreenerScheduling4004 find an ”optimal” schedule that maximizes the fleet’s TC result and minimizes emiss ions
– GreenerScheduling4004 will enable the operator to find a schedule that wi ll minimize air emissions and in this way comply with regulations.
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 25
Summary (1/3)
� Carbon dioxide is the most important GHG emitted by ships
� Shipping amounts to 3.3% of the global anthropogenic CO 2
� International shipping: 2.7% of the global anthropogenic CO 2
. � Absent regulations, ship emissions
may grow significantly as a result of growth in shipping
Scenarios for CO2 emissions from International Ship ping from 2007 to 2050 in the absence of climate polici es
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2 em
issi
ons
from
shi
ps (m
illio
n to
ns C
O2
/ yr)
'
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Max
Min
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 26
Step 1: Calculate voyage estimates for all cargoes and ships in the fleet
Atlantic Highway
Atlantic Leader
Atlantic Breeze
WCMED100
WCMED101
WCMED102
WCMED103
Jan Feb Mar April May
EUR/Jap
Jap/SA
USWC/Japan
Jap/SA
USWC/Japan
EUR/Jap
35,000 USD/day -180 days
40,000 USD/day -160 days
28,000 USD/day -170 days
Calculations take into account: Cargo qty, freight rates, port
charges, speed/consumption ofvessels etc
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 27
Typical emissions from ships
0.03 g/kwh
0.3 – 12 g/kwh
0.2 – 2.5 g/kwh
0.001 g/kwh
13 – 16 g/kwh
Engine based emissions(1kwh = 3.6 MJ)
NMVOC(Non Methane Volatile Organic Carbon)
PM
CO
CH4
0 – 5 % of fuel consumedSO2
NOX
3 kg / kg fuelCO2
Fuel based emissions
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 28
Emission data for ships GreenerScheduling4004: Typical input
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 29
Step 2: GreenerScheduling4004 calculates the amount ofemissions from this schedule
Atlantic Highway
Illustrative: Atlantic Highway 180 days
WCMED100
Jan Feb Mar April May
EUR/Jap USWC/Japan
CO2
SO2
NOX
CO
CH4
PM
18,000 tons
200 tons
450 tons
55,000 dwt bulker
14.5 kn on 40 mt pr day
10,000 kw * 80 %
Total fuel consumption: 6,000 mt
Total engine output: 30 mill kwh
June
180 days
30 tons
50 tons
7 tons
NMVOC 40 tons
Emissions are calculated based on parameters given for the ship and the fuel, time at sea, time in port,
engine rating for sea versus port etc
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 30
What are costs of emissions ?
� So far the maritime industry is not paying much for the emissions but this may soon be changing as more and more governme nts and international organizations are in the process of i ntroducing tariffs and limits for emissions.
� GreenerScheduling4004 will allow the operators to test various assumptions about the impact of such emission fees:
– Cost of purchasing of CO2 quotas for global or regi onal traffic
– Low sulphur fuel in European waters
– NOX charges not only in Norwegian waters but extend ed to more port areas
– Introduction of maximum limits for emissions altern atively penalty charges for emissions while in ports
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 31
Specification of emission costs GreenerScheduling4004
Typical input
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 32
Step 3: GreenerScheduling4004 calculates the cost (*) ofemissions from this schedule
Atlantic Highway
Illustrative: Atlantic Highway 180 days
WCMED100
Jan Feb Mar April May
EUR/Jap USWC/Japan
CO2
SO2
NOX
CO
CH4
PM
18,000 tons * 10 USD/ton = USD 180,000
200 tons * 80 USD/ton = USD 16,000
450 tons* 200 USD/ton = USD 90,000
55,000 dwt bulker
14.5 kn on 40 mt pr day
10,000 kw * 80 %
Total fuel consumption: 6,000 mt
Total engine output: 30 mill kwh
June
180 days
30 tons
50 tons
7 tons
NMVOC 40 tons
(*) Cost of emissions is based on cost pr pollutantas stated by global or local authroities
Total voyage emissioncost: USD 286,000
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 33
GreenerScheduling4004 : Voyage estimates include emissionscosts
GreenerScheduling4004: Typical Voyage estimate
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 34
GreenerScheduling4004 : Alternative graphs to present results
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 35
Step 4: Route4004 can calculate an optimal (*) schedulefor the fleet that takes into account emissions costs
Atlantic Highway
Atlantic Leader
Atlantic Breeze
Illustrative: GreenerScheduling4004
WCMED100
WCMED101
WCMED102
WCMED103
Jan Feb Mar April May
EUR/Jap
Jap/SA
USWC/Japan
Jap/Singapore
USWC/Japan
EUR/Australia
(*) The optimal schedule takes into account all thecontractual obligations the operators has along with
expected spot business, but in these calculations, emission costs are included as part of the voyage
costs
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 36
Illustrative case (*)Optimal schedule gives: 20% improvement
(*) A fleet of 6 Handy max bulkers scheduled for a 6 months period against a mix of contract cargoes/spot jobs and TC contracts.
42,00035,000TC Pr day
45.4 mill USD39.6 mill USDPro-rated TC result
1.0801,132Ship days
Optimal scheduleproduced by Route4004
Manual Schedule as produced by Charteringdepartment
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 37
Ships to be scheduled
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 38
Cargoes to be lifted - details
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 39
Emissions pr ton mile
© 2013, Stavseth Shipping Slide 40
Visual Scheduling