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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The Role of Regional Low
Carbon Fuel Standards
Jeff [email protected]
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
Established under the clean air act
Defines ambient air concentration limits for pollutants
6 Pollutants regulated under NAAQS
carbon monoxide
nitrogen dioxide
sulfur dioxide
particulate matter
ozone
lead
Region A NOx Emissions
EPA Specified Limit
Non-compliance
The state must compose a State Implementation Plan (SIP) to bring
areas into compliance
The SIP is effectively a road map that details how a region may achieve compliance
States are penalized for not following the SIP, not for non-attainment of the NAAQS• Ineligible for Federal transportation funds • Termination of near-term transportation projects
The EPA has authority to implement a CO2
NAAQS
Outcomes:
All regions effectively in non-compliance
SIPs may utilize any number of approaches to bring regions into compliance
Effectively triggers cap-and-trade policy
Carbon abatement from transportation is more expensive
than from other sectors
A transportation-specific SIP requirement is needed A low-carbon fuel standard is one such option
8
What is a low-carbon fuel standard?
Average fuel carbon intensity cap (g CO2e/MJ)
Decreases by x (10%) percent over y (10) years
Baseline CI
AFCI
Carbon Dioxide
Population
Population mobility
Energy intensity of travel
Carbon intensity of energy
miles traveled/person
Energy/mile traveled
CO2/Energy
CAFE Standard
LCFS
Four regions are modeled
4 Regions (New Jersey, Oregon,
Washington, Vermont)
LCFS implementations
Fuel composition
over time
The aggregate region is modeled
Harmonized region
LCFS implementation
Fuel composition
over time
Modeling methodology
1. Determine LCFS reduction schedules for each region
2. Determine what fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year
LCFS Reduction Schedule – What’s possible?
LCFS Reduction ScheduleYear
Gasoline AFCI (gCO2e/MJ)
Diesel AFCI (gCO2e/MJ)
1990 90.00 91.522010 90.06 91.512015 87.43 88.762020 81.25 82.362025 65.26 68.942030 52.26 58.012035 42.61 47.622040 34.77 37.492045 28.30 29.582050 23.00 23.34
% Change -74% -74%
Innovation Minimization Model
The LCFS is a technology forcing policy.
Technologies are deployed based on their maturity status and their ability to meet the regulation in a given year
Therefore: minimize the rate of change of technology such that the LCFS is binding
Objective function:
Constraints:• No deficits associated with LCFS
compliance by 2050 (credit banking, but not borrowing)
• Energy demand in diesel pool is met• Energy demand in gasoline pool is met
Minimize the percent growth rate for each technology each year
Biofuel for the diesel pool, biofuel for the gasoline pool, electric/hydrogen vehicles.
Natural Gas use treated exogenously
Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for A) New Jersey, B) Oregon, C) Vermont, and D) Washington
Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for the aggregate region
What about biofuel availability?
Additional constraint where total biofuel from region is less than or equal to 3.55 billion GGE per year (Parker, 2012).
Calculating abatement costs
Fuel supply was not based on fuel cost
Cost of fuel determined based on modeled fuel supply and supply curvers from Parker (2012)
Electricity rates and oil prices based on AEO 2013
Modeled AFV deployment cost compared to BAU cost
Low Oil Price AEO BaselineNew Jersey $95 $(10)
Oregon $111 $(13)Vermont $122 $(10)
Washington $96 $(42)Harmonized $95 $(19)
Limit to Biofuel $88 $(153)
Higher electric vehicle penetration contributes to lower future abatement costs.
Average cost of abatement for each modeled region
Year Low Oil Price AEO Baseline2015 $139 $268.35 2020 $963 $1,306.53 2025 $397 $598.84 2030 $104 $329.31 2035 $(153) $73.62 2040 $(237) $12.09 2045 $(294) $(34.02)2050 $(338) $(52.29)
Average $(153) $87.74
Average cost of abatement for harmonized region over time
Questions?
Estimated AFV Deployment to meet schedule
A) Harmonized case
B) Biofuel limited case
Modeling of NAAQS-LCFS implementation
Key aspects:LCFS will be regionally implemented
Regions may have different LCFS implementation
Costs may differ across implementations
Biofuel Diffusion Curve
LCFS Reduction ScheduleYear
Gasoline AFCI (gCO2e/MJ)
Diesel AFCI (gCO2e/MJ)
1990 90.00 91.522010 90.06 91.512015 87.43 88.762020 81.25 82.362025 65.26 68.942030 52.26 58.012035 42.61 47.622040 34.77 37.492045 28.30 29.582050 23.00 23.34
% Change -74% -74%
What fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year?
LCFS Reduction Schedule
1. What’s viable?1. Cellulosic ethanol introduced between 2010 and
2015 (CI: 36.01 gCO2e/MJ)2. Cellulosic ethanol from farmed trees introduced
between 2015 and 2020 (CI: 2.4 gCO2e/MJ)3. Diffusion curve of technology to determine
market penetration level4. AFCI of 23 gCO2e/MJ by 2050 based on diffusion
curve