Gridded TAF Generation and the RLX Enhanced Gridded TAF Generation and the RLX Enhanced

Short-Term Forecasting ProgramShort-Term Forecasting Program

Chris LeonardiChris Leonardi

ER Sub-Regional Aviation ConferenceER Sub-Regional Aviation Conference May 24, 2006May 24, 2006

State of the art West Virginia State of the art West Virginia weather forecasting!weather forecasting!

OutlineOutline

Enhanced Short Term ForecastingEnhanced Short Term Forecasting– Polices/procedures/philosophyPolices/procedures/philosophy– Science/modelsScience/models

Gridded aviation forecastingGridded aviation forecasting– What, when, why, and howWhat, when, why, and how– Pros/cons and lessons learnedPros/cons and lessons learned– StatsStats– Ongoing workOngoing work

• 12+ Hour, High Detail, Deterministic, Hourly Grids• Focus off text onto meteorology• Full Automation of selected text products

• AFM, PFM, SFP, FWF• 90% Automation “primary” text products

• ZFP, NWR ZFP, NOW• Generated by schedule• Forecaster/HMT reviews and sends

• ZFP• 4 times/day• Low detail• One County One Zone

• Standard 39 zones (out of 49)• Run manually if deadline is missed or update desired

• NWR ZFP• Every 3HRs• 3 HR detail first 12 hours• 6 hour detail period 2 and 3• 12 hour detail beyond period 3• Maximum of 2 groups

• NOW• One County One Zone, 12 hr forecast• 3 hour detail from county perspective

• Aviation incorporated in forecast process

• Aviation grids part of the short term forecasters suite• Aviation grids (cloud height, visibility and ceiling) produced every 6 hours out to 30 hours• Set of TAF’s generated by AVNFPS from grids for each initial TAF release• Individual TAF’s monitored and amended by hand as needed

• Customers have good detail for decision making• A better warning service/advance notice in both space and time of specific threat areas• With automation of text, more time to focus on, and provide, detail in the forecast• Skill/verification improves with more focus on detail in short term • Cost/Benefit ratio high with high detail forecasts• Focus on the area in the forecast process where the technology and availability of the human/forecast resources of the NWS can enhance the information to the private sector for their use. • Additional aviation services available with aviation grids

• While a forecaster is working in a continual update/high detail mode, they are basically removed from other activities• With high activity in the short term, there may be some detachment with the weather expected in the long term• Collaboration more difficult in a “continually” updating forecast situation• Forecasters rely more heavily on the observational/forecast data as well as technology. Failure becomes more critical• Additional and collateral duties (ie training and focal point work) can not be done while working an enhanced short term operation

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term

* MESONETCAPTURED ALL AVAILABLE DATAADDED RIDGETOP SITE AT NWRCOORDINATED WV IFLOWS

MESONET2 MET SENSOR

SYSTEMS/COUNTYEXPANDED LOCAL LAPS DOMAIN

FOR IMPROVED LOCAL MODELING

INCREASED LAPS RESOLUTION - 5KM

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term

* LOCAL SHORT RANGE MODELS/FCSTS* WSETA FORECAST EVERY 6 HOURS

HOURLY OUT 18 HR, 5KM RESOLUTION

* WRF FORECAST EVERY 3 HOURSHOURLY OUT 24 HR, 5KM

RESOLUTIONHIGH LOW LEVEL LAYER

RESOLUTIONRUNS ON BEOWULF CLUSTER INCLUDE PBZ IN DOMAIN“HOT START” INITIALIZING ON

LAPSEVERY 2 HOURS IN SEVERE WX

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term•OTHER OPERATIONAL SHORT RANGE MODELS

• LAMP HOURLY FORECASTS EVERY 3 HR• RUC

• PARTICIPATING WITH MDL TESTING OF NEW MAV BASED LAMP (LAV)• NCAR AVIATION FORECAST GRIDS (NCV)• ALL MODEL DATA AVAILABLE IN GFE

• GFE 2.5 KM

Y - Short Term Z - Long Term Winter

H - Short TermJ - Extended/ExtraK - “Mid Term”

SummerH - Short TermJ - Extended then “Mid Term”P – Assist with forecast/Extra/Convection

Q - Short Term

10 forecasters“Periods, not Desks”

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

MAR-DEC'03

MAR-DEC'04

MAR-DEC'05

MAV

CCF

Percent of timeFirst Period ForecastWithin +- 3 Degrees

Why Aviation Grids?Why Aviation Grids?

FAA wants increase in number of TAF FAA wants increase in number of TAF locations – grid generation could streamline locations – grid generation could streamline processprocess

Point-and-click terminal/route forecastsPoint-and-click terminal/route forecasts Facilitate collaboration of aviation Facilitate collaboration of aviation

parametersparameters Graphical area service in space and time to Graphical area service in space and time to

the centersthe centers

Point-based aviation forecasts Point-based aviation forecasts anywhere in CWAanywhere in CWA

The new gridsThe new grids

PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds of feet (0-250)of feet (0-250)– Ceiling if Sky Ceiling if Sky ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer

otherwiseotherwise– Collaboration grid…also used with Sky to construct Collaboration grid…also used with Sky to construct

CigHgt grid for web displayCigHgt grid for web display Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10)Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10) CigHgt – ceiling height (in feet)CigHgt – ceiling height (in feet)

– Ceiling height if sky Ceiling height if sky >> 57%, otherwise no ceiling– Generated as last step (totally dependent on Generated as last step (totally dependent on

Sky/PredHgtSky/PredHgt– Source of web graphicSource of web graphic

Potential pitfallsPotential pitfalls

Smoothing out of local effects in a gridded Smoothing out of local effects in a gridded databasedatabase– Can be mitigated by improved smart tools, e.g. Can be mitigated by improved smart tools, e.g.

AviationFmFog, elevation-dependent toolsAviationFmFog, elevation-dependent tools– Creation of new edit areas (rivers, individual TAF Creation of new edit areas (rivers, individual TAF

locations)locations)

Interpolation problems with PredHgt/VsbyInterpolation problems with PredHgt/Vsby– Creative solutions can be found (NoBasesBetween, Creative solutions can be found (NoBasesBetween,

Extrapolate, use of edit area query)Extrapolate, use of edit area query)– Tools that work over a time range (AviationFogTimer)Tools that work over a time range (AviationFogTimer)

General philosophyGeneral philosophy

Be deterministic! Focus on what WILL be, Be deterministic! Focus on what WILL be, not what COULD benot what COULD be

TEMPOs (first 12 hours only) should be TEMPOs (first 12 hours only) should be used for truly varying conditions, not to used for truly varying conditions, not to cover all possibilitiescover all possibilities

Initial 12 hours are the most important and Initial 12 hours are the most important and deserve the most attention/scrutinydeserve the most attention/scrutiny

12-24 hours should capture major trends but 12-24 hours should capture major trends but not necessarily be as detailed (slosh it!)not necessarily be as detailed (slosh it!)

AvnFPS modificationsAvnFPS modifications

Enable ingest of all aviation-relevant gridsEnable ingest of all aviation-relevant grids– PredHgt, Sky, Vsby, Wx, Wind, WindGustPredHgt, Sky, Vsby, Wx, Wind, WindGust

Enable TAF formatting of gridded elementsEnable TAF formatting of gridded elements– Cig/vis related TEMPOs, wind shear need to be Cig/vis related TEMPOs, wind shear need to be

added by handadded by hand

Some local tweaks of grouping logic Some local tweaks of grouping logic (grp_taf.cfg)(grp_taf.cfg)

Gridded TAF limitationsGridded TAF limitations

Since we have only one grid for each Since we have only one grid for each element…element…– No TEMPOs for non-Wx related ceiling/visibility No TEMPOs for non-Wx related ceiling/visibility

(yet!)(yet!)– Limited TEMPOs for Wx (PoP-based only)Limited TEMPOs for Wx (PoP-based only)– Only one cloud layerOnly one cloud layer

TAF formatting itself is not perfectTAF formatting itself is not perfect Generation process a bit cumbersome Generation process a bit cumbersome

(copy/paste)…a bit less of this in 3.2(copy/paste)…a bit less of this in 3.2

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

New paradigm tough to adjust toNew paradigm tough to adjust to– Areal thinking instead of point thinkingAreal thinking instead of point thinking– Editing/interpolating grids can be frustratingEditing/interpolating grids can be frustrating– Some resistance from forecasting staffSome resistance from forecasting staff

Few real gridded guidance tools…although Few real gridded guidance tools…although some are just getting goingsome are just getting going– RUC/NAM grids for cig/vsby recently availableRUC/NAM grids for cig/vsby recently available– NCAR NCV gridsNCAR NCV grids

Verification performance may initially dropVerification performance may initially drop

Aviation POD IFRAviation POD IFR

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

NOV DEC JAN FEB

POD IFR 04-05POD IFR 05-06POD MAV 04-05POD MAV 05-06

First fully operational month November ‘05

Goal 0.47

Aviation FAR IFRAviation FAR IFR

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

NOV DEC JAN FEB

FAR IFR 04-05FAR IFR 05-06FAR MAV 04-05FAR MAV 05-06

First fully operational month November ‘05

Goal 0.65

Aviation POD vs FAR for IFRAviation POD vs FAR for IFR

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

NOV DEC JAN FEB

POD IFR 05-06FAR IFR 05-06

First fully operational month November ‘05

POD Goal

FAR Goal

March/April statsMarch/April stats

March ’06 - POD 0.37, FAR 0.63 in ’06March ’06 - POD 0.37, FAR 0.63 in ’06March ’05 - POD 0.40, FAR 0.60 in ’05March ’05 - POD 0.40, FAR 0.60 in ’05

Comparable, but worse Comparable, but worse April…stats incomplete but not goodApril…stats incomplete but not good

What went wrong???What went wrong???– Different weather regime (winter vs. summer)Different weather regime (winter vs. summer)– Tools we have work better in winter scenariosTools we have work better in winter scenarios

BUT…we are working on this!BUT…we are working on this!

Coming soon…Coming soon…

TEMPO grids!TEMPO grids!– First 6 hours only (PredHgtTempo, VsbyTempo)First 6 hours only (PredHgtTempo, VsbyTempo)– Meant to capture short-lived precip (especially Meant to capture short-lived precip (especially

convection)convection)– Automated generation where possible based on Automated generation where possible based on

model data or forecaster updated gridsmodel data or forecaster updated grids– Ingested into AvnFPS for TAFsIngested into AvnFPS for TAFs

New tools!New tools!

Improved smart toolsImproved smart tools– Extrapolate – move features across domainExtrapolate – move features across domain– LAPS radar ingestLAPS radar ingest– PoPs from WRF and consensus PoP from PoPs from WRF and consensus PoP from

WRF/RUC/WsETAWRF/RUC/WsETA

New model dataNew model data– Cig/vis data from RUC13Cig/vis data from RUC13– Additional LAV runs (09Z, 21Z now, 03Z soon)Additional LAV runs (09Z, 21Z now, 03Z soon)

Local statistical analysis (MOS-type approach)Local statistical analysis (MOS-type approach)

Severe Potential GridsSevere Potential Grids Short-term convective threat grid (none, low, Short-term convective threat grid (none, low,

medium, high) based on model parametersmedium, high) based on model parameters

AvnFPS 3.2 changesAvnFPS 3.2 changes

Questions?Questions?