GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], Training

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org

Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010

National Risk Assessment:

Project Overview

Dr. Carlos VillacisGRIP Coordinator



• Purposes and Objectives

• Scope and Context

• Main Activities

• Key Outputs

• Implementation

• Work timeline

Topics



• Purposes and Objectives– National DRR strategies– National planning development

programs and investments– Budget and resource allocation

• Users/Beneficiaries– National authorities– National institutions and agencies– International Organizations



• Geological Hazards– Earthquake (primary) – 1:150,000– Landslides (secondary) – 1:50,000

• Hydro-meteorological Hazards– Floods – scale 1:150,000; – Drought – scale 1:150,000 or smaller; – Tropical Cyclones – scale 1:100,000

Scope – Multi-hazard



Mayon Volcano: the most active volcano in Philippines, 150 miles south of Manila, > 2400 meters (~8,000 feet) tall.

Typhoon Durian: Nov. 30, 2006

Torrential rainsMudslides

Death Toll: >1000Houses destroyed: 66,191 + buried houses

Recent eruption: February 28, 2006

Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines



• Lesson learnt from Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines– Disaster preparedness based on multi-

hazards assessment;– Hazard assessment from a systems

perspective.



• Population – urban, rural (age, gender, income)

• Buildings – residential, commercial, industrial, public

• Livelihoods – industry, agriculture, tourism

• Critical facilities – health system, schools, governmental, police, fire stations

• Lifelines – roads, bridges, airports, ports, railways, sewage, telecommunications, power, etc

Scope – Multi-sectors



• Step 1: Country situation analysis (SIERA)• Step 2: Hazard assessment• Step 3: Exposure assessment• Step 4: Vulnerability assessment• Step 5: Risk analysis and profiling• Step 6: Identification of risk reduction

measures• Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy

Main Activities - Overview



• Step 1: Country Situation Analysis– Systematic inventory of existing data and studies– Integration of existing studies– Gap and needs identification– Coordination mechanism

• Step 2: Hazard Assessment– Identification of sources (active seismic faults, cyclone track

patterns, precipitation patterns)– Identification of hazard-prone areas based on historic data– Characterization of hazards (in terms of probability and

intensity)– Development of probabilistic hazard and event intensity maps

(return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years);– Development of hazard zonation maps

Main Activities - Tasks



• Step 3: Exposure Assessment– Categorization of exposed elements at risk

(population, infrastructure, livelihoods, critical facilities lifelines)

– Exposure surface models using dasymetric mapping method or grid approach

• Step 4: Vulnerability Assessment– Compilation of vulnerability functions for all the

categories of elements at risk (based on historic damage patterns)

– Comprehensive damage-loss algorithms for each category of elements at risk




• Step 5: Risk Analysis and Profiling– Probable maximum losses (PMLs) (return periods =

25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years);– Risk expressed in terms of human impact

(mortality) and financial impact (absolute value and fraction of GNP)

– Risk aggregation to district or county level– Risk profiling by hazard, district, return period – Thematic risk profiles (social, productive,

infrastructure) – Composite risk profiles (multi-hazard) for relevant

return periods




• Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures– High-risk areas– Risks to avoidance, reduction, transfer,

retention (preparedness)– Cost-effective analysis

• Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy– Priority, budget allocation, programmes




• National disaster risk profiles including national risk atlas

• Comprehensive DRR measures• National standards and methodologies• National Risk Information System

– Risk assessment results are readily available to all potential users

• National capacity– National team for risk assessment– Understanding and application of risk assessment

results

Key Results



• How long will it take?– 24 months

• Who implements NRA?– National working group under supervision

of relevant national authorities and with extensive supports from Multi-stakeholders

Implementation



Who should be involved



Project Components

• Component 1: CSA using SIERA• Component 2: Data integration & production• Component 3: Disaster risk mapping &

profiling• Component 4: Application development• Component 5: Outreach



Work Plan



Summary

• NRA is a strategic risk assessment aiming to support national decision/policy makers to shape national DRR strategy and action plans

• NRA should be multi-hazard, and comparable and aggregatable

• NRA is a 7-step process• An integrated governance and coordination

mechanism is highly essential to the success of a NRA exercise.



Any Questions?

Documents

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], Training