Group B5_Current Account Deficit

7/29/2019 Group B5_Current Account Deficit

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Report for Macroeconomics by Gro

Current Acc

I

1

p 5

ount Deficit An Indian Pers

ndian Institute of Management, Kozhikode

Report by:

GROUP 5:

Aishwarya Kumar (063)

Anirban Bhar (064)

Anusha Acharya (071)

Nimish Shah (110)

Palak Bansal (097)

Pratik Agarwal (101)

ective


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Table of Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................3

India CAD Historical perspective (1991 present) ..............................................................................7

Case Study 1 - US Current Account Deficit and the 2008 Financial Crisis.............................................12Case Study 2 - Brazil: A unique transition from current account surplus to current account deficit... 14

Appendix: ..............................................................................................................................................16

References ............................................................................................................................................17


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3

Introduction

In economics, the Current Account is one of the two components of the balance of payments. The

other component is the Capital Account. Current account is the sum of

1) Balance of Trade (net revenue on exports minus payments for imports),

2) Factor Income (earnings on foreign investments minus payments made to foreign investors)

and

3) Cash Transfers

The current account balance is considered a major measure of the nature of a country's foreign

trade. It is called the current account as the goods and services are consumed in the current period.

In the case of a current account surplus, a country's net foreign assets are increased by the

corresponding amount, and in case of a Current Account Deficit (CAD), the reverse occurs.

Government and private payments are both included while calculating the CAD. The balance of

trade is the difference between a nation's exports of goods and services and its imports of goods and

services. A nation is said to have a trade deficit if it imports more than it exports ignoring transfer

payments and investments. Since the trade balance is generally the largest component of the

current account, positive net exports are accompanied by a current account surplus. But, this is not

always the case especially with secluded or somewhat closed economies which may have an income

deficit larger than their trade surplus.

The net factor income or income account consists of income payments as outflows and income

receipts as inflows. Income includes the money received from investments made abroad

(investments are recorded in the capital account but income from investments is recorded in the

current account) and the money sent by individuals working abroad called remittances to theirfamilies back home. A country is paying more than it is taking in interest, dividends, etc. if the

income account is negative.

Meaning and Implications

The current account equals the change in net foreign assets in the traditional accounting of balance

of payments. A CAD implies that the net foreign assets have reduced.

CA =Changes in Net Foreign Assets

If an economy has a CAD, it is absorbing more than that it is producing. This implies other economies

are lending their savings to and thus the foreign assets in the economy are getting reduced.

If an economy is running a current account surplus it is absorbing less than that it is producing. Thus,

it is saving. This saving is invested abroad and foreign assets are thus created.

How the Current Account is calculated

The current account is calculated by adding up the 4 components of current account: Goods,

services, income and current transfers.

Goods:- Exports are considered as credit and imports as debit.

Services:- When a service is used by a foreigner in our nation and the local resident receives moneyfrom a foreigner, it is credited as an export.


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Income:- When a citizen of th

company..

Current Transfers:- When a fo

received as a return in the form

Thus,

Where CA is the current accoun

X and M the export and import

NY the net income from abroad,

and NCT the net current transfe

Link between budget deficit a

It has often been contemplat

earns and what it spends) is

related, do they share a posit

simplistic view of the same

logical relationship between t

S = SP

+ SG

where SP

= Yd C =

SG

= T G

SP

= private saving;

Yd = disposable inco

Then SP

= (C + I + G

= I + CA + (G - T)

where G T = gove

So CA = SPI (G

The above equation CA = SP I

deficit as it has (G-T) as one o

government expenditure and it

would mean that (G-T) is a ne

4

e nation or a domestic company receives m

reign country provides currency to another c

of donations, aids, or official assistance etc.

,

f goods and services respectively,

rs.

nd current account deficit

ed if budget deficit (difference between w

in anyways related to current account defi

ive relationship or a negative one. This sec

conundrum by simple mathematical equati

e two.

T C

G= government saving;

e; T = net tax.

CA) T C

nment budget deficit.

T)

(G T) shows that current account deficit is d

its components. (G-T) would indicate the diff

revenues (which are majorly in the form of tax

ative number and this would add to the exten

ney from a foreign

ountry with nothing

at the government

cit and if they are

tion tries to give a

on and establish a

ependent on budget

erence between the

es). A budget deficit

t of current account


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5

deficit. We can safely conclude that a strong positive correlation exists between current account

deficit and budget deficit.

Reducing Current Account Deficits

Reducing CAD usually involves increasing exports and decreasing imports. This may be done directlythrough import restrictions, quotas, or duties or by promoting exports (by subsidies, exemptions

etc.).

Another way is by changing the exchange rate to make exports cheaper for foreign buyers which will

have an effect of increasing the balance of payments.

Nowadays, another phenomenon has emerged in the form of currency wars which is basically a

protectionist policy. Countries devalue their currencies to increase competitiveness when it comes

to exports.

Is CAD always bad?

A CAD is not always a problem. Deficits reflect economic trends which may be desirable or

undesirable for a country at a particular point in time. Whether a deficit is good or bad depends on

the factors giving rise to that deficit.

According to the Pitchford thesis, a CAD does not matter if it results from the private sector

participants involved in mutually beneficial trade. This view is also called the "consenting adults"

view of the current account.

A CAD implies that foreign capital has to be repaid consisting of many individual transactions.

Pitchford asserts that since each of these transactions were individually considered financially sound

when they were made, the CAD should also be sound.

This theory is true for the Australian economy, which has had a consistent CAD but has experienced

economic growth for the past 18 years (19912009).

The CAD may reflect an excess of imports over exports. Then, it may indicate competitiveness

problems. Or the CAD also implies an excess of investment over savings. This would indicate a highly

productive and growing economy. The deficit may imply low savings rather than high investment.

This may be due to reckless fiscal policy or excessive consumption. Or it could reflect perfectly

sensible intertemporal trade or the consenting adults approach. Without knowing which of these

effects is at work, it makes little sense to talk of a deficit being good or bad.

Transition from a measure to a crisis

Another way to look at the current account is in terms of the timing of trade. Just as a country may

import one good and export another under intratemporal trade, a country may import goods of

today (running a current account deficit) and export goods of tomorrow (running a current account

surplus in the future).

Intertemporal theories of the current account suggest that running a current account deficit or a

surplus may have a consumption-smoothing effect. For example, if a country is struck by a shock

such as a natural disaster, the countrys productive capacity is reduced. In such an event, instead of

absorbing the shock immediately, the country run a current account deficit and spread the burden of


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consumption. These theories also suggest that countries that are prone to running large shocks

should run current account surpluses as a precaution.

Another factor which should be considered is the duration for which a country runs a CAD. When a

country runs a CAD, it is in essence increasing its liabilities to the rest of the world which need to be

paid back. However, it depends on how the country spends the borrowed foreign funds. If there isno long-term gain, then there would be a risk of the countrys ability to pay back and its solvency

might be threatened. Thus, whether a country should borrow more and run a CAD depends on the

extent of its foreign liabilities or external debt and also, on whether the borrowing will be used for

an investment which yields higher returns than the interest rate the country has to pay on its foreign

liabilities.

Even if a country is solvent (i.e. its current liabilities can be covered by future revenues)its CAD

may become unsustainable if it is unable to secure financing. Some countries (for example, Australia

and New Zealand) have been able to maintain CADs of about 5 % of GDP for decades while others (

such as Mexico in 1995, Thailand in 1997) experienced severe CADs during the financial crisis.

In such cases where there is a huge reversal in CAD, private consumption, investment, and

government expenditure must be reduced abruptly when financing from abroad is not available and,

indeed, a country is forced to run large surpluses to repay in short order what it borrowed in the

past. Due to this, large and consistent deficits should be paid attention, lest a country experience a

sudden withdrawal of financing.

Such a huge change in CAD may be caused due to various reasons such as

overvalued real exchange rates

inadequate foreign exchange reserves

excessively fast domestic credit growth

unfavourable terms of trade shocks

low growth in partner countries

higher interest rates in industrial countries

Companies may have more short-term liabilities than short-term assets and more medium-

and long-term assets relative to their liabilities.

Besides these there are other reasons such as lack of foreign direct investment (relatively

stable) as compared to volatile foreign institutional investment. A country with weak

financial sectors can also be at risk as banks may borrow a lot of foreign money and make

risky loans.


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India CAD Historical perspective (1991 present)

Prior to the liberalization and economic reforms of 1991, India financed its current account deficit

using official flows and debt flows. Entry of foreign capital was restricted. Following the BOP crisis of

1991, the Indian government opened up the economy to FDI and FII and the currency shifted to

market determined rates.

Presently at a current account deficit of 4.5% FY13 Q3, Indias current account deficit has shot to an

alarming new high, and has approached 1991 levels. However, the question to ask here is, are we

really in a similar situation?

A number of factors are responsible for the huge current account deficit faced by India and we shalltalk about them in a systematic fashion.

First let us establish the basic BOP equations;

GDP = C+I+G+(X M)

GNDY = C+I+G + (X-M) + NY + NCT

CAB = NCT+NY + (X-M) -------------------------------------------(1)

GNDY-C-G = S

(S-I) = CAB------------------------------------------------------------(2)CAB + NKT NPNNA = NFI-----------------------------------------------(3)

NKT NPNNA = Capital Account Balance---------------------(4)

Now, C+I+G+X = C+S+T+M

X-M = (S-I) + (T-G)--------------------------------------------------(6)

(S-I) = Private savings (T-G) = Public savings

Where C = Consumption, G = Govt. expenditure, I = Investment NY = Net income from abroad NCT =

Net current transfers GNDY = Gross National Domestic Income CAB = Current Account Balance NKT =


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Net capital transfers NPNNA = Net purchases of non-produced, non-financial assets NFI = net

foreign investment or net lending/net borrowing with the rest of the world X-M = Trade deficit

Hence, current account represents the transactions involving exchange of goods, services,

income, and current transfers between India and the rest of the world. In a closed economy, the

items on the current account are entirely funded through domestic sources (domestic savings).In an open economy, however, a part of the items on the current account are financed by

foreign debt.

Capital account represents FDI (Foreign direct investments), FII (portfolio investments) and

other investments. A capital account surplus denotes that capital is flowing into the country in

terms of increase in borrowings or by the sale of assets. A capital account deficit on the other

hand denotes that capital is flowing outside the country as our claim on foreign assets increases

and as we lend money abroad.

CAB = NKA + RT (Where NKA = Net capital and financial account RT = Reserves)

Reasons for CAD India

1. Booming imports over exports

India has a trade deficit, which has been widening. Between FY 2001 2010 export growth

was 16% p.a. whereas imports grew at a CAGR of 21%. The export growth has been driven

by IT and IT enabled services (outsourcing industry), petroleum and related products,

whereas the imports have been driven by gold and silver, crude oil and electronics goods.

India has lost export competitiveness due to a fall in manufacturing activities. Indias current

GDP composition shows that it has shifted from an agricultural to a services economy.Traditional export items like textiles and readymade garments, and leather and other

manufactured goods have been growing at decreasing rates.

Regulations that restrict small scale industries, reservations etc.

harsh labour laws

unfavourable indirect taxes

poor infrastructure (road, logistics, storage, supply chain bottlenecks)

Delays in transportation (port congestion, road transport)

India needs to build up its manufacturing base and regain its export competitiveness.

2. Rising Fiscal Deficit

(S-I) + (T-G) = X-M

Since the Indian government has been going through a persistent fiscal deficit, T-G


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the current account deficit numbers that in turns leads to a double negative effect on the

economy as a whole- from both current and budget deficit. And a high current account

deficit means that a country isnt able to sustain its day to day expenses from the revenue it

earns. This portrays a very sad and a worrying picture for any country.

3. Rising demand for gold, increasing oil prices coupled with depreciation of currency

With rising oil prices, the import of oil has caused an increase in the CAD. Indias rising

demand for gold is also another reason for the CAD. However, restrictions in the import of

gold like increased customs and have reduced the overall demand /prices for gold.

4. Excessive and unfavourable movement of exchange rates

5. Aggregate demand (C+I) exceeds Domestic Output

Indias growth is mainly consumption driven and not manufacturing driven (export driven).

As a result, despite the global economic turmoil, Indias growth wont be affected. The

downside to this is that this consumption is dependent on variables such as exchange rate.

An appreciation of the Indian currency due to foreign capital inflows would boost imports,

and hence consumption, but a depreciation of the rupee would adversely affect

consumption.

Financing CAD - Indian Scenario:

(a) Capital Account Surplus

Historically, India has had a current account deficit. Large deficits in the current account have been

financed by surpluses in the capital account. India uses up its large capital inflows to finance its large

current account deficit. Over the last three years, Indias CAD has deteriorated steadily owing to the

global financial crisis, Euro crisis and weak global economy. The disadvantage of being dependent on

capital inflows to cover up the current account deficit is that these capital flows may be

unsustainable and volatile in the long run. As India moves towards an increasingly open economy,

sudden shocks/capital outflows as it happened in the 2008 financial crisis could destabilize the

economy and lead to a BOP crisis.

(b) Foreign Remittances

Foreign remittances also play a major role in financing the trade deficit in Indias CAB. NRIs sent in

US$ 54 Billion in 2010, making India the largest receiver of remittances in the world. During the

financial crisis of 2009, remittances remained stable while capital account saw huge swings. The

important thing is to see if the foreign remittances are used to support consumption or investment.


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Is the CAD in India sustainable over the long term? Will this current account deficit lead to a

BOP disaster?

There have been growing fears amidst the market participants and the economists about the

alarmingly high CAD levels in India. In the FY 2011-12, Indias CAD has reached 4.5% of GDP. This has

led to the development of apprehensions concerning the sustainability of such high levels given theweak global economic scenario and various uncertainties that our country is going through.

Economists and former RBI Governors opine that the sustainable level of CAD is around 2.5% and all

efforts should be directed towards bringing the CAD to these levels. But the levels are not too high

for India to cut imports drastically and provide high levels of export subsidies. These levels, though

high, can be taken care of by effective policy measures.

A strong self-correcting mechanism is at work. The big CAD has caused the rupee to fall sharply, from

Rs 45 to Rs 56 to the dollar. Many alarmists used to complain that the RBI was keeping the rupee too

strong. Well, without any effort from the RBI, their wish has come true. The rupee has weakened to

a very competitive level, which itself should trim the CAD.

Despite policy paralysis and a poor investment climate, India received large inflows of both FDI and

foreign portfolio inflows in 2012. Despite bad publicity from the alleged mistreatment

of Vodafone and Walmart, FDI inflows actually shot up 34.4% to $46.84 billion in 2011-12.

FII inflows are typically far more volatile than FDI. However, despite the Eurozone crisis and recent

slowdown in the US, FII inflows into India exceeded $10 billion in January-July 2012.

Moreover, with the current policy measures, FDI and FII levels are set to increase due to opening of

Retail, Insurance and Aviation sector.

In short, though the CAD is currently at high levels, it hasnt reached to panic-stricken levels wheredesperate measures are required that might hamper growth and lower aggregate demand. In fact,

growth-inducing policy measures would lead to increased confidence in the economy that would

bring in more capital inflows. Also, with the INR deemed to have reached the true levels that

reflect the state of Indias economy, further depreciation seems unlikely and with the advent of J-

curve effect, Indias CAD would become more favourable over a period of time.

Recommendations for sustainable improvement in CAD

1.Boost exports, build a strong manufacturing baseLike the rest of the Asian countries, India needs to build a strong manufacturing base to

boost its exports. This would lead to a shift in workers from the agricultural sector (which

has surplus of workers) to the manufacturing sector. Not only will this generate employment

opportunities, it will also

There has to be diversification of Indias exports basket in terms of both, destinations as well

as products. Indian exporters need to accelerate efforts to move up in the value chain at the

global level.

2. Improve productivity /structural reforms

There should be reforms to improve governance and reduce wastage in governmentprogrammes. Encourage private enterprise and innovation. All such measures will improve


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productivity. This is the best way to improve the balance of payments. A number of projects

are stuck in bureaucratic mire environmental regulations, labour laws, unfavourable tax

policies etc.

3. Encourage FDI/FII inflows

Recent government policies like FDI in retail and aviation encourage capital flows and capital

account surplus, which can cushion the current account deficits. Local land restrictions,

labour, political and environmental restrictions are in a state of flux, and these uncertainties

make it more difficult for foreign investors to invest in India.

4. Improve manufacturing by increase in number of SEZs, tax sops for manufacturing specially

small scale industries. Encourage foreign investment in roads, infrastructure, logistics and

supply chain.

5. Replicate Brazil model export growth through growth in agricultural products. India hasthe largest arable land in the world and is one of the largest producers of agricultural

commodities and grains. However, net exports have remained small and the variety hasnt

changed over the years, moreover Indias grain yield hasnt improved. India could increase

its agricultural exports through drastic measures like the Green Revolution of the 1970s.

6. Use of Monetary policy India can use monetary policy to offset unfavourable exchange

rates. E.g. use open market operations to increase/decrease liquidity and interest rates to

regulate capital flows.

7. Reduction in demand of gold through education of investors of alternative sources of

investment and increase domestic production of gold.

8. Alternative sources of energy encourage through policies and investments in

development of alternative sources of energy like Shale gas. Following model of Gujarat of

boosting investments in solar panels which would go a long way in reducing Indias oil

imports over a long period of time.


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Case Study 1 - US Curr

With its citizens and corporatio

that, beginning in 1992, deepe

rather, Americans switched habi

US Current Account Deficit s

corporations started borrowing

due to increased investment bu

savers to net debtors. The grap

2008-the year sub-prime crisis s

US Economy started becoming

deficit, they had to borrow fro

treasury debt to raise the fu

surpluses were more than willi

income of oil-exporting countri

would have been neither feasibl

borders, and so, much of it w

reason to explain the saving b

important motive: the need to

event of an emergency. Beca

financial markets were well de

debt than it needed.

As foreign investment boughtdropped to a level where foreig

12

nt Account Deficit and the 2008

s borrowing heavily, the United States ran a cu

ned each year. The deficit was not due an inc

its from being net savers to net debtors.

arted spiraling upwards at an accelerated r

heavily. The unfortunate part was that the de

t due to the paradigm shift in habits of US Consu

below shows the trend in US current account

et in.

more leveraged as deficit increased and in

countries having surpluses. The US issued m

ds. Countries with emerging economies that

ng to invest their money in a safe haven like

es had ballooned since 2004 because of higher

e nor wise for oil-rich nations to spend this win

s saved and sent abroad. Economists who ha

ehavior of a disparate group of countries hav

invest in reliable assets that may be easily con

se U.S. assets were considered to be of high

eloped, and thus liquid, the U.S. attracted m

p large amounts of U.S. Treasuries, the yield on investors sought out riskier assets to improve

inancial Crisis

rrent account deficit

rease in investment;

ate as citizens and

icit was not majorly

mers from being net

deficit from 1992 till

rder to finance the

gnanimous levels of

had enjoyed trade

S. For instance, the

prices for crude. It

fall within their own

e sought a unifying

e converged on one

erted to cash in the

quality and the U.S.

re investment in its

n those investmentstheir return. Those


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investors then looked to anoth

represented too much risk for

provided an avenue to diversif

liquid) asset. Thus the explosio

that traded them, do find an ex

Figure

Deficits, equity prices, and

Notes: Current account deficit i

the United States for 1990201

Source: http://www.frbsf.org/p

The above figure consolidates t

an implicit cause responsible fo

variable, the correlation betwee

between a nationss CAD and th

13

er U.S. asset: real estate. Owning a mortgage

a foreign investor, but securities and derivativ

both systematic and credit risk in a liquid (or

in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives,

lanation, to a great extent, in the current accou

ousing prices

s measured as percentage of national income.

.

blications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-37.ht

e hypothesis of how widening current account

r the sub-prime crisis in 2008. Though it isnt

n the two is not at all spurious and there is a si

e potential of any future economic turmoil.

on a single property

e financial products

what seemed to be

and the hedge funds

nt deficit

1

Price indexes are for

l

deficit in US was one

directly observable

nificant relationship


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Case Study 2 - Braz

surplus to current acc

Brazil, one of the BRICks of

respect to its current account bthat it ran current account surp

Though the magnitude of the s

positive indicator for a developi

But come 2008 sub-prime crisis

trade deficit. And unfortunate

increasing at a constant pace.

increasing at a great pace leadi

exports leading to higher trade

Brazil could be hit hard in case

dependence on external financi

doesnt take these looming curitself in a big debt trap as the

foreign exchange, financial and

current account deficit may hit

A higher CAD would lead to we

Once it gets into this trap, CAD

would have to devalue its curre

might cause hyperinflation to

inflationary pressures might fur

force government to reduce i

unemployment and social unres

14

l: A unique transition from cu

unt deficit

the future of tomorrows growth has a unique

lances. Looking at the last 10 years of their ecoluses during the global boom period from 2002

urplus wasnt that high, it was still considered

g country to have a trade surplus.

and the graph completely reverses. The country

ly, looking at the trend of last 4 years thes

s it is in a developing phase, the demand for

g to high import levels but a weak global dema

eficits.

of the ongoing global crisis, mainly because of

ing and the increasingly impending current acc

rent account deficit seriously and fund it to reworld starts to demand what Brazil owes the

currency crisis of a destructive level. The IMF e

120 billion by 2016.

akening of the currency leading to wider balan

would increase to unsustainable levels and the

ncy and print more money. But this would fuel a

o. Nothing destroys a developing nation li

her depreciate the currency, increase fiscal defi

its spending leading to a vicious circle of f

t.

rrent account

story to share with

nomy, it can be seen to the end of 2006.

to be an extremely

starts having a huge

levels seem to be

oods and services is

nd is depressing the

the country's heavy

ount deficit. If Brazil

duce it, it might see. It might lead to a

stimates that Brazils

ce of payment gaps.

might come when it

high inflation which

ke inflation. Higher

cit and consequently

lling growth levels,


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15

The above two examples of US and Brazil which happen to be very different countries is to show

how increasing current account deficit levels lead to a contagion effect causing collateral damage

to the economy as a whole. No country is an exception to this rule. Spending more than one can

earn at an unrelenting, uncontrolled pace would cause an inevitable and an irreparable damage.


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Appendix:

Calculation of CAD A regression based approach

Exports

Exports are a function of global demand, which is determined by world GDP as well as the Indian

exchange rate.

Exports= f (World GDP, REER)

Imports

Import demands, especially for India can be determined for oil and non-oil products, since oil

imports have such a major impact on Indias trade balance. Non-oil import is expected to be

determined by domestic economic activity and exchange rates whereas oil imports are

determined by global crude oil prices and domestic GDP.

Non-oil Imports = f (domestic GDP, REER)

Net Oil Imports = f (domestic GDP, crude oil prices)

Private Transfers

Remittances will depend on world GDP and the difference in the growth rate of the two

countries.

Net Pvt. Transfers = f (World GDP, growth differential)

Services exports can be determined by growth in world GDP and exchange rates. On the other

hand, services imports can be determined by domestic economic activities (i.e., domestic GDP)and exchange rates

Services Receipts = f (World GDP, REER)

Services Payments = f (Domestic GDP, REER)

Investment income receipts depends on the level of foreign currency assets held by the RBI as

well as the interest rates on the debt (can be approximated to be held in US treasury bonds)

Investment Income Receipts = f (FCA, interest rate on US Govt. bond)

Investment income payments could be influenced by both debt and non debt payments. Debt

liabilities could be determined by LIBOR and those related to non-debt liabilities would relate to

growth rate of the domestic economy.

Investment Income Payments = f (external debt, domestic GDP growth)


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References

1. www.tradingeconomics.com

2. Euromonitor International (graphs)

3. http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/focus-04. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=k3s92bru78li6_#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=

d&nselm=h&met_y=bca&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:IN:CN:BR:R

U:ZA&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false

5. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/070212.pdf

6. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/pdf/chap14.pdf

7. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v54/n2/full/9450013a.html

8. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/141590.pdf

9. http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publications/PDFs/WPSSLI070812.pdf

10. The X Factor, Game Changer Report (2011), Kotak Institutional Securities

11. Report of the Sub-Group on Inflow of Foreign Savings: Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2012-13 to

2016-17)

12. Indias Gold Rush: Its Impact and Sustainability, Assocham Report

13. Indias Experience With Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest For A Sustainable Current Account

Deficit, Ajay Shah, Ila Patnaik - Working Paper 11387 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w11387)

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Group B5_Current Account Deficit