Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA

Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology

A Study For DARPA

Adam PeaseArticulate Software

Ted GordonConsultant

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The decision is not likely to have serious negative consequences

The decision is likely to be effective

The decision can be implemented quickly

The proposed decision is plausible

The decision is likely to provide useful feedback to alter future strategy

The decision has reasonable cost

Weights

Avg.: 4Responses: 5Reasons.Input 5Justify

Avg.: 6Responses: 5Reasons.Input 7 Justify


Avg.: 8 Responses: 5Reasons.Input 9Justify



Governments modify school curricula to remove cultural biases







The world implements a vastly improved disease early warning system







UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders







Scores of proposed decisions so far:

Candidate DecisionsGroup Score Your Score

The world implements a vastly improved disease early warning system

199 205

UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders

176 200

Governments establish dialogs with dissidents 150 210

The UN employs advanced detection systems for all of its WMD on site inspections

175 195

Governments build redundancy into societal and technical infrastructure

153 100

Governments modify school curricula to remove cultural biases

150 75

Systematically alter policy to defuse terrorist recruitment

0 20

When you are satisfied with your inputs click save and it will be added to the group’s scoring.

Cell under consideration:

Candidate Decision: UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders“ Criterion: The decision is likely to be effective

Given Value

Reason

8The question, it seems to me is whether anyone can call the religious leaders together and point them in the same direction

5 As likely as not to be effective

2 This is bound to backfire

Global SOFI 2005 Objectives

• How have the SOFI projections changed over time?

• Are the data sources used for the variables contained in the SOFI during the last five years still appropriate? If not what sources replace them?

• Has the historical data provided by these sources changed over the years? Even though history is history, some providers of data change the data they published earlier as a result of new analysis techniques, changing definitions, and late inputs from primary sources.

• Forecasts of each variable were made in each year that SOFI was provided; how do these forecasts compare to actual data now available in 2005?

• Where the forecasts differ from actuality, are reasons apparent?

Five Years of SOFI: Variables• 1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)• 2. Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries• 3. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)• 4. Pct of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)• 5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm• 6. Annual population additions (millions)• 7. Percentage of world population unemployed• 8. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)• 9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions)• 10. Life Expectancy (years)• 11. Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)• 12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (%)• 13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares)• 14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day• 15. Terrorist Attacks (Number injured or killed)• 16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)• 17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free• 18. School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)• 19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)• 20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

SOFI 2005

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

High in 2003 and Low in 2004

• The favorable data in 2003 included:– A dip in the number of wars– A dip in the ratio of debt to GDP– Relative low terrorism casualties compared to 2001 and 2004

• And in 2004 the situation worsened because of – An unexpectedly high number of terrorist caused casualties– The percentage of people living in countries classed as not free

increased as a result of Russia being reclassified.

SPFI 2001- 2005

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

SOFI 2005 (with TIA)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Population Additions US Census Bureau, data and forecasts

65

70

75

80

85

90

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Mill

ion

s p

er

Ye

ar

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Four Questions• Are the data sources used for the variable still active and appropriate?

YES. US CENSUS BUREAU IS AUTHORITATIVE

• Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed?

YES

• How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in 2005?

LOWER; THE CENSUS BUREAU’S FORECASTS NOW SHOW AN UP-TICK IN POPULATION ADDITIONS LATER IN THIS DECADE.

• Where the forecasts differ significantly, are reasons apparent?

CHANGING METHODS OF ESTIMATING AND INCORPORATION OF NEW AIDS AND HIV DATA, RATES OF SURVIVAL INTO OLD AGE, AND INCORPORATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE 2000 US CENSUS

Results SummaryExample

VariableAre the data sources used for

the variable still active and appropriate?

Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed?

How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in 2005?

Where the forecasts differ significantly, are

reasons apparent?

1.infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

Yes. US Census Bureau: Very littleThe forecasts by the us census

bureau have been quite consistent

The small change in expectations for 2010 between forecasts come from data adjustments made by US Census Bureau.

2. Food availability cal/cap in developing countries

Yes. FAOSTAT is the authoritative source.

A bit and further changes can be expected as a result of FAO’s updated statistical methodologies

Comparison is good even though a new extrapolation technique is being used.

Artifacts of methodologies

3. GDP per capita (constant 1995 $US

Yes. Source should be WDI available on line with subscription

Yes, a bit Excellent comparison Forecasts are comparable

4. Percentage of households w/ access to safe water (15 most populated countries)

Data sources provide data only at infrequent intervals; the most consistent seems to be WDI

Yes Current data are tracking well Reasons not apparent

Terrorism Statistics• US Department of State in its annual report titled Patterns of Global

Terrorism provided succinct and apparently accurate counts on the number of terrorist incidents and the number of casualties

• This year however, the Department changed the report’s format and omitted these statistics.

• The change in policy came after the release of figures that were challenged as being too low.

• After the controversy “…. there were over 9,000 victims of significant international terrorism last year, of which 1,907 were killed. ….”

Possible Ethics Scenarios

– The rise of trans-humanism– New attitudes toward death– The designed human– The stasis of religion– From ethics to law

Women are the most significant suppliers of family labor and efficient managers of household food security. They produce and manage over 50% of all the world’s goods and services in the unpaid sectors. In addition, women (whether naturally or through acculturation) bear greater responsibility at al levels of society for nurture, education, food production, cooperative sharing volunteering and conflict resolution. Mainstream economics still treats these services of women as “un-economic” because they are usually unpaid.

1. Rural poor women have developed survival strategies that could be useful in developing local economies; yet they are largely untapped.

2. Economic theory ignores many contributions made by women and the cost of replacement of these goods and services.

Added suggestions

Women’s Study Round 1

Question Example

Round 2Question Example

1. Gender Issues2.

Importance Globally

3. Being Addressed

Globally

4.Importance in my

Country

5.Being Addressed in

my Country

Traditional cropping methods used by rural women are not fully considered in the design of strategies to protect and sustain the environment.

Adequate safe water sources are not available to women, as household managers for their children and families.

Women are not involved in helping local communities to make a sustainable use of water.

Information about means for limiting family size is often not available to women and girls.

Women generally have little knowledge about how they can participate in the process of democratization.

Women are largely under-represented in government bodies and in other sectors of the public sphere.


1. Future Development

2.Impact

(positive or negative)

3.Importance to

women if it were to occur

4.Likelihood by

2030

1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in agriculture by 75%.

1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable water from salt or brackish sources at prices comparable to naturally available water in quantities sufficient to ease global water issues.

1D. Demonstration of methods to improve collective intelligence while reducing anti-social behavior.

1E. Demonstration of the possibility of an environmentally, economically, and culturally sustainable city of at least 1 million people.

1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and epidemics


• Focus on actions

• May be interviews

Documents

Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA