Group of Experts on Renewable Energy (GERE) · PDF file2 The Assignment 18.11.2014 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region Research of consultants contracted by

1

This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The German Federal Ministry for the

Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports this initiative on the

basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag.

Status of Renewable Energy in the ECE Region

Geneva, 18 November 2014

Group of Experts on Renewable Energy

(GERE)

2

The Assignment

Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014

Research of consultants contracted by the German Agency for International

Cooperation (GIZ), producing 2 separate reports:

- Assessment of Activities of Multi- and Bilateral Donors n the Area of Renewable

Energies in the ECE Region (August 2014), and

- Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE region (September 2014)

Input to various

documents prepared /

compiled by UNECE for

Committee on Sustainable

Energy incl. GERE

Assignment supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment,

Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB)

Main sources used by consultants include:

- IEA Data Services - Energy Balances of OECD and of Non-OECED countries

- IRENA Renewable Energy Country Profiles

- REN21 Renewables Interactive Map

- REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014

- IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database IEA & World

Bank, Global Tracking Mechanism report (2010)

- World Bank, Global Tracking Framework report (V.3, 2013)

- Bloomberg New Energy Finance

3

The Assignment


Motivation: The SE4All initiative embodies three objectives to be achieved by

2030:

access to modern energy services for all,

doubling the share of renewable energy uptake, and

doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency.

Goal: to provide an overview regarding where the ECE region stands in RE uptake

– the starting point

Observed elements related to renewable energies (RE):

Status / role of RE in energy balances

RE-E, RE-H/C and RE-T installed capacities

RE resource potentials

RE strategic planning documents

RE-related legal and regulatory framework

RE-related targets

RE regulatory policies and support schemes

4

Geographic coverage - classification of (56) UNECE member States in the

report


(1) Northern America (NA) incl. 2 countries, (2) European Union (EU-28) together with the European Free Trade

Association (EFTA-4) and 3 European Microstates (Andorra, Monaco,San Marino), abbreviated as EU.EF.3 - altogether 35

countries, (3) Western Balkans (WB) – 5 countries, (4) Eastern Partnership (EP) – 6 countries, (5) Central Asia (CA) – 5

countries, and (6) Other countries (I.R.T.), actually covering Israel, Russian Federation and Turkey

5

Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (1)


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

1,000,000,000

..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

. ..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

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2011 ..

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2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ..

.

NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T.

Shar

e o

f R

ES in

GFE

C

[%]

Vo

lum

e o

f R

ES in

GFE

C

[PJ;

loga

ryth

mic

sca

le]

Volumes and shares of RES in GFEC by sub-region (2001, 2006, 2009-2011)

6

Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (2)


Volumes and shares of GFEC and RES in GFEC by ECE sub-region in 2011

ECE162,350;

42%

WORLD Total389,299;

100%

74,088;46%

52,214;32%

813;0%

5,078;3%

4,471;3%

25,686;16%

Volume of GFEC [PJ]

ECE-NA

ECE-EU.EF.3

ECE-WB

ECE-EP

ECE-CA

ECE-I.R.T.

ECE13,158;

23%

WORLD Total57,414;100%

5,366;41%

6,009;46%

123;1%

168;1%

185;1% 1,307;

10%

Volume of RES in GFEC [PJ]

ECE-NA

ECE-EU.EF.3

ECE-WB

ECE-EP

ECE-CA

ECE-I.R.T.

7.9

12.6

16.0

3.64.3

5.8

8.9

16.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. ECE WORLD

Share of RES in GFEC [%]

7

Exemplary set of charts for an „observed element“ – e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ) (3)


Renewable energy sources in GFEC by UNECE Member State, 2011 (PJ)

60.4

3

54.0

2

46.9

3

23.6

7

74.5

8

40.1

5

35.8

5

8.55

4.98

3.82

916.

29

587.

67

581.

82

502.

20

444.

46

419.

82

316.

55

297.

51

293.

18

195.

19

191.

03

175.

70

152.

97

120.

93

99.5

8

96.2

2

90.5

1

79.4

1

70.7

6

63.7

6

62.5

8

48.7

6

40.2

7

40.1

2

33.6

7

31.1

9

23.9

8

23.5

7

4.57

4.43

905.

61

354.

91

46.9

0

4,06

4.43

1,30

1.89

63.3

5

23.7

8

13.1

3

11.5

9

10.6

7

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

US

CA DE

RU IT FR NO SE ES TR AT PL FI GB

RO PT DK CH CZ NL IS BE UA GR

HU RS LV TJ KG BG KZ IL SK BY LT GE

HR SI IE AL UZ EE BA ME

MK AZ AM CY LU MD

MT

TM

ECE average: 253.04 PJ13 MS above, 39 MS below

[PJ]

8

Main socio-economic, energy and climate change related indicators


SN Indicator ECE

average

World

average

ECE region vs

WORLD index

(factor)

NoC 1)

“above /

below” ECE

NoC

“above / below”

WORLD

1 GDP per capita (current US$, 2011) 31,944 10,259 3.11 18 / 34 35 / 17

2 Total Primary Energy Supply (PES) energy

intensity - PES/GDP (MJ/000 US$) 5,679 7,684 0.74 32 / 20 22 / 30

3 Energy self-sufficiency (%) 93.2 2) 100.0 0.93 8 / 44 8 / 44

4 Cost of fuel import as percentage of GDP (%) 4.20 38 / 11 3)

5 Electricity consumption per capita (kWh) 7,736 3,174 2.44 10 / 42 41 / 11

6 Installed electrical capacity per capita (W) 2,085 765 2.72 13 / 39 42 / 10

7 Share in total global emission of CO2 39.45 100.0 0.39

8 Emission of CO2 per capita (tCO2) 9.9 4.5 2.21 10 /42 37 / 15

9 Emission of CO2 per GDP (kg CO2/current US$) 0.311 0.439 0.71 25 / 27 19 / 33

10 Emission of CO2 per total PES (tCO2/TJ) 54.7 57.1 0.96 23 / 29 18 / 34

Notes:

1) NoC - number of UNECE Member States that are “over” or “under” the average value for the ECE region, based on data for 52 countries.

2) The ECE average number is high due to 8 countries, which are net exporters of energy, with the self-sufficiency indicator considerably over 100% (Norway: 694%,

Azerbaijan: 477%, Kazakhstan: 234%, Turkmenistan: 213%, Russian Federation: 180%, Canada: 162% and Denmark: 117%).

3) Based on data for 49 countries.

The ECE region in the context of basic socio-economic, energy and

climate change considerations

9

ECE region: 31,944 current US$/cap (18 MS above, 34 MS below)

WORLD: 10,259 current US$/cap (35 MS above , 17 MB below)

Socio-economic circumstances

GDP per capita by UNECE member State (current US$/cap)


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Energy intensities


Economic wellbeing provides better

conditions for the promotion of energy

efficiency measures.

Energy is used in a wasteful manner in

lower-income countries.

Low-income countries do not add

sufficient economic value per unit of

consumed energy. Such unfavourable

circumstances represent important

potential for introduction and

implementation of energy efficiency and

RE programmes on a large-scale.

Introducing renewable energy may face

technical limitations beyond the economic

or financial ones that apply in most

countries. At risk of technical challenges

in particular are small countries.

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Electricity use and installed electrical capacities per capita


• A vast majority of ECE member States demonstrate potential for increased use of electricity per

capita in the future - driven by aspirations for improved quality of life.

• Capacity additions seem reasonable and justified primarily in member States with per capita

installed power generation capacities around and below the global average (765 W/cap).

• This growth potential is an opportunity for renewables-based electric power provided that such

projects are competitive locally with traditional technology.

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Self-sufficiency in PES and electricity generation by ECE sub-region

(2011, 2006, and 2009-2011)


• The ECE region is well balanced in terms of electricity production and a bit less in terms of PES.

• The most notable oscillations in electricity self-sufficiency in WB (due to specific hydrological

circumstances in 2010-2011)

• The CA and the I.R.T. sub-regions are huge exporters of PES and also of electricity, while the

EU.EF.3 sub-region reaches only 60% self-sufficiency in PES, the lowest within the ECE region.

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

20

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ... ..

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2006

2009

2010

2011 ... ..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ... ..

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2006

2009

2010

2011 ... ..

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2006

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2010

2011 ... ..

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2011 ... ..

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2006

2009

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2011 ... ..

2001

2006

2009

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2011 ... ..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ... ..

2001

2006

2009

2010

2011 ...

NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T.

Self-sufficiency ¤ Production of Primary Energy / Total Primary Energy Supply [%] Self-sufficiency ¤ Electricity Generation / Electricity Consumption [%]

13

Renewable energy resource potentials


38

3

9

20

4

0

22

0

18

9

34

0

39

0

32

65

1

29

0

15

24

6

0

21

0

8

5

8

14

0

11

0

3

0

8

22

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

High High toMedium

Medium Medium toLow

Low Unknown Not applicable

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal

Ocean

• The ECE region is a highly promising region to deploy nearly any kind of RE technologies.

• Further research and field surveys (biomass), measurements (hydro, wind) and exploratory drilling

(geothermal) is required to permanently improve the renewable energy resource assessment.

• Feasibility studies are required, based on the application of state-of-art RE technologies and updated

data on costs in order to refresh the assessment of technical and economic potentials.

14

Role of UNECE member States in global installed capacities by RE-technology

(status as of end-2013)


Wind power: 8 ECE member States are among the top 10 countries of the World

Solar PV: 7 ECE member States among the top 10

Concentrated solar thermal power (CSP): 2 ECE member States among the top 10

Hydropower: 3 ECE Member States among the top 6

Geothermal power: 2 ECE Member States among the top 6

Solar water heating collectors: 7 ECE Member States among the top 12

Biofuels production: 8 ECE Member States among the top 16

15

Renewable energy strategic planning documents


National energy strategies; 32 countries (62%) have adopted long-term national “strategies” for the

energy sector as a whole. Together with „programmes” or “policies” as called in some countries, the total

number is 35 countries (67%) altogether. Long-term energy strategies have been passed in all countries

of the ECE-WB sub-region and in most ECE-AP and ECE-CA countries

Preparation of separate documents on RE strategies is not widely practiced; in 7 countries (13%).

Strategic plans for RE sub-sectors (e.g. wind, solar, hydro etc.); in 16 countries (31%).

Specific RE sub-sector programmes and investment plans; in 22 countries (42%).

National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) are the major documents that determine the long-

term outlook for RE development, in most cases, by 2020. In line with the last RES Directive 2009/28/EC,

they are mandatory to all EU MSs (28) and since 2012, also to the Contracting Parties to Energy

Community Treaty (8). The available data indicate that as many as 39 countries (75%) have NREAPs or

similar.

Without sound RE-policy framework in place remains 3 countries.

16

RE-related targets


Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption (GFEC)

Share of energy from renewable sources in energy consumption in transport

Share of renewable energy in Final Energy Consumption (FEC)

Share of renewable energy in total Primary Energy Supply (PES)

Share of electricity generated from RE-sources (RES-E) in total electricity generated

Share of renewable energy in energy for heating and cooling

Type of most frequently used targets

17

RE-related targets


Horizontal cross-sectoral (gross) final energy consumption related targets are most

popular targets that have been introduced in 36 countries (69%), followed by:

Consumption-related sectoral targets for renewable energy in transport are in 35

countries (67%);

Production-related sectoral targets for the power sector, either in terms of installed

power generation capacities (24 countries – 46%) or electricity generation or consumption

(29 countries – 56%;

Production-related sectoral targets for heating/cooling, either in terms of capacity or

energy, are present in 18 countries (35%);

Horizontal cross-sectoral primary energy related targets have not been introduced in

more than 12 countries (23%).

Statistics on used targets

18

RE regulatory policies and support schemes (1)


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB

The number of active policy measures in force might serve well for focusing the discussion on

the possible UN/ECE efforts.

4.7 9.7 5.5 4.3 2.0 1.8 3.0 ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB

Renewable energy policy support measures in force

average number of policy measures in the field of renewables support

19 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014

The IEA/IRENA database

deals with information of

tremendous value to both

policy and industry decision-

makers.

UN/ECE could try to facilitate

active participation of its

member States in the

IEA/IRENA database.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB

1 - Economic Instruments

2 - Information and Education

3 - Policy Support

4 - Regulatory Instruments

5 - Research, Development and Deployment(RD&D)6 - Voluntary Approaches

Data gaps identification

Countries of ECE region with no data available in the IEA/IRENA database (12 of 56) by groups:

ECE-NA (0 of 2)

ECE-EU.EF.3 (4 of 35):AndorraLiechtensteinMonacoSan Marino

ECE-I.R.T. (0 of 3)

ECE-EP (2 of 6):GeorgiaRepublic of Moldova

ECE-CA (5 of 5):KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan

ECE-WB (1 of 5):The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB

Share of countries having at least one type of renewable

energy policy and measure (6 categories) in force (IEA/IRENA

database)

RE regulatory policies and support schemes (2)

12 MS

4 MS

2 MS

5 MS

1 MS

20

Major inconsistencies


REN21: By comparing the information provided within the Renewables Global Status Report

(GSR) and the Renewables Interactive Map (MAP), significant inconsistencies have been

identified:

• of nearly 300 policies implementations stated within GSR and MAP, only 82% are

coherently referred to in both sources;

• while 33 are referred to by the MAP exclusively and 5 by the GSR only.

REN21 vs IEA/IRENA: Cross-referencing information provided by REN21 (GSR and MAP)

and IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database on the 4

categories that appear to be perfectly overlapping (Feed-in tariffs, Capital subsidy, Public

investment, Tradable RECs), substantial discrepancies appear:

• of 140 statements by either of the REN21 services 47 are disputed, and

• 10 more identified as missing in IEA/IRENA database.

This means that either IEA/IRENA or REN21 or both are incomplete and/or partially wrong.

21

Major data gaps


The most pressing issue is lack of complete geographical coverage.

49 ECE member States individually and further 6 on pair-by-pair within IEA energy balance data

services

44 ECE member States within IEA/IRENA database

33 ECE member States within RES-Legal Database

The various approaches of individual information sources leads to limited comparability of

information as the data structures are not easily aligned (e.g. only 4 of the 34 IEA/IRENA policy

types can be aligned with any of the 12 RES support policies of REN21)

It appears that nobody collects information on validity of non-existence of the reference. There is no

information on the information not being there (whether such status is being claimed or just not

known)

Further consolidation of information between various data sources and improvement of

reliability, accuracy and geographical coverage of provided information seems one of the

main challenges.

Could and how UN/ECE could contribute?

22 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region 18.11.2014

Thank you for your attention

Marko Košir Tomaž Lajovic

Lead Consultant RES Legal and Regulatory Expert

[email protected] [email protected]

+386 (0)31 381115 +386 (0)41 735711

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Group of Experts on Renewable Energy (GERE) · PDF file2 The Assignment 18.11.2014 Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE Region Research of consultants contracted by