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Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007. The white paper Scotland’s Future suggests if Scotland had matched the rate of growth of other small European countries (in GDP per person) from 1977 to 2007 Scotland would now have an additional £900 per head - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007The white paper Scotland’s Future suggests if Scotland had matched the rate of growth of other small European countries (in GDP per person) from 1977 to 2007 Scotland would now have an additional £900 per head
This presentation explains the detail of this calculation and shows how the underlying assumptions may impact on Scotland’s GDP per head
All calculations shown in an accompanying Excel workbook
Contact: [email protected]
Ireland 4.4%Luxembourg 3.5%Finland 2.6%Portugal 2.5%Iceland 2.4%Austria 2.2%Norway 2.1%Sweden 1.9%Denmark 1.9%
Average 2.61%
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007White paper shows growth for nine selected comparable countries
Average annual growth across the nine countries was 2.61% from 1977 to 2007
Average annual Scottish growth was 2.48% from 1977 to 2007
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
Total GDP per person growth over 30 years:
Scotland: 102.48%30 = 208.5%
Comparable countries: 102.61%30 = 216.5%
At the Scottish rate of growth GDP per person would be 108.5% higher over the 30 years
At the average comparable countries rate of growth GDP per person would be 116.5% higher over the 30 years
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
GDP per person in Scotland would be 3.8% higher if it had matched the average growth rate of the selected comparable countries 216.5% - 208.5% = 3.8% 208.5%
In 2011 Scottish GDP per person stood at £23,641
An extra 3.8% would be worth £902 per person
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
But …
Scotland grew more quickly than most of the selected comparable countries
Scotland grew faster than the median (or midpoint) of the selected comparable countries
Difference between average and median growth driven by Ireland
Ireland 4.37%Luxembourg 3.52%Finland 2.55%Portugal 2.50%Scotland 2.48%Iceland 2.44%Austria 2.19%Norway 2.10%Sweden 1.91%Denmark 1.89%
Median 2.44%
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
GDP per person in Scotland would be 1.1% lower if it had matched the median (midpoint) growth rate of the selected comparable countries
A loss of 1.1% would be worth £257 per person
Differences can be seen more clearly by showing Scotland matching the growth of each country
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
Ireland 4.4%Luxembourg 3.5%Finland 2.6%Portugal 2.5%Iceland 2.4%Austria 2.2%Norway 2.1%Sweden 1.9%Denmark 1.9%
£17,240£8,359
£509£160
-£257-£1,943-£2,475-£3,653-£3,778
Country Growth Difference Scotland would be £17,240 per person better off if it had matched Ireland’s growth
Scotland would be £3,778 per person worse off if it had matched Denmark’s growth
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
Excluding the top (Ireland) and bottom (Denmark) performing countries:
If Ireland were removed from the average Scotland would be £629 per person worse off
If Denmark were removed from the average Scotland would be £1,557 per person better off
Growth in GDP per Person 1977-2007
The data is not weighted so Luxembourg carries the same weight as Sweden in calculating the average
The Swedish economy is around ten times the size of the economy of Luxembourg
The data uses a specific period 30 year period (1977-2007)
The most recent data available covers 30 years 1982-2012
Repeating the calculations for 1982-2012 …
Growth in GDP per Person 1982-2012GDP per person in Scotland grew by 2.22% per annum 1982-2012
Only Luxembourg and Ireland grew faster than Scotland
Scotland grew more quickly than both the median (or midpoint) of the selected comparable countries
Ireland 3.4%Luxembourg 2.9%Scotland 2.2%Finland 1.9%Austria 1.9%Portugal 1.9%Norway 1.8%Sweden 1.8%Denmark 1.5%Iceland 1.4%
Average 2.05%Median 1.85%
Growth in GDP per Person 1982-2012
GDP per person in Scotland would be 5.0% lower if it had matched the average growth rate of the selected comparable countries
A loss of 5.0% would be worth £1,185 per person
GDP per person in Scotland would be 10.2% lower if it had matched the median (midpoint) growth rate of the selected comparable countries
A loss of 10.2% would be worth £2,419 per person
Sensitivity of Estimates
Difference in growth between Scotland and the average of selected comparable countries is shown below
Red shaded areas show where growth in GDP per person in selected comparable countries was ahead of Scotland and green shaded areas show where Scotland was ahead of the selected comparable countries
Sensitivity of Estimates
The estimates are strongly influenced by the inclusion or exclusion of the late 70s and early 80s when Scottish performance was particularly poor compared to the selected comparable countries
The key figures shown in this presentation are available in an Excel workbook
