Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service

Matt PeroutkaMeteorological Development LabNOAA/National Weather Service

Acknowledgements

• Mark Oberfield• Steve Olson

• Dan Gilmore• John Schattel

Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF)

• Operational forecasts of aviation weather conditions at an aerodrome

• National Weather Service (NWS) issues TAFs at least 4 times daily for ~700 locations

• Text code form• Evolving WXXM

form

Model Output Statistics (MOS)• Successful,

operational forecast technique

• Accurate, reliable guidance

• Ceiling, visibility, and many other weather elements

• Four times daily

Model Grids

Least Squares

Regression

Sensible Weather Elements

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

• Update to MOS

• Focus on aviation weather elements

• Issued hourly

MOS

Least Squares

Regression

Sensible Weather Elements

Advection

Observations

Delivering LAMP

• Today– Text bulletins– Guidance TAFs in text– BUFR, GRIB

• NextGen– Grids via Web Coverage Service (WCS)– Guidance TAFs in WXXM– Probabilistic TAFs in WXXM

LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFsKBWI 212320Z 2200/2306 13003KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040

FM220200 00000KT 5SM BR SCT025 BKN040 FM220600 00000KT 3SM BR FEW002 SCT007 BKN060 FM221100 00000KT P6SM BKN120 FM221400 30007G16KT P6SM SCT050 FM222000 28008G15KT P6SM BKN250=

• Innovative technology that combines LAMP probabilities with human-issued forecasts to emphasize the strengths of both.

LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFs in WXXM

FM241300 13017KT 2SM BR OVC010CB

<avwx:windSpeed uom="kt">17</avwx:windSpeed><avwx:windDirection uom="deg">130</avwx:windDirection>

<avwx:prevailingVisibility uom="SM">2</avwx:prevailingVisibility>

<wx:CloudCondition gml:id="KMEM_46"> <wx:base uom="ft">1000</wx:base> <wx:amount>OVERCAST</wx:amount> <wx:types>CUMULONIMBUS</wx:types></wx:CloudCondition>

<wx:WxCondition gml:id="KMEM_47"> <wx:weatherModifier>MODERATE</wx:weatherModifier> <wx:weatherPhenomenon>MIST</wx:weatherPhenomenon> <wx:wxCode>BR</wx:wxCode></wx:WxCondition>

LAMP TAFs in WXXM

LAMP Ceiling Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

<002 002-004 005-009 010-019 020-030 031-065 066-120

Tops of gray bars indicate Pr(cig<MVFR)

Tops of teal bars indicate Pr(cig<IFR)

LAMP TAFs in WXXM

• Forecast probability distribution of ceiling

• Valuable information for aviation decision making

LAMP Ceiling Forecast

01020304050607080

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

<002 002-004 005-009 010-019020-030 031-065 066-120

“Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXMwx:probability>4</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">0.5</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range></wx:interval>

<wx:probability>21</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">1.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval>

<wx:probability>65</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">2.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval>

“Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXM

• Not just ceiling• Conditional ceiling (conditioned on

precipitation occurring)• Visibility• Conditional visibility (conditioned on

precipitation occurring)• Chance of freezing/frozen precipitation

Notional NextGen Architecture

13

Zoom in...

14

We are here. NDFD/NDGD

Collaborating to Deliver Web Services

• NOAA will have many data sources• No need for Cube Edge Input Servers (CEIS) at

every data source• MDL will implement a set of Source Service

Adapters (SSA) and transfer WXXM documents to CEIS at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)

Boulder, Colorado

Silver Spring, Maryland

Collaborating to Deliver Web Services

NDFD/ NDGD

LAMP Experimental Guidance Forecasts

NOAANet

WXXM Documents

Cube Input Edge

ServerTo the 4-D Cube

Source Service Adapter