GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THEGUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THERICHARD H. HAGEMEYERRICHARD H. HAGEMEYER

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERPACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER

Charles S. McCreeryCharles S. McCreeryPTWC DirectorPTWC Director

Tsunami Training Tsunami Training Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand

May, 2006May, 2006

DIRECTOR

ADMINISTRATIVESUPPORT

ASSISTANT SENIORELECTRONICSTECHNICIAN

ELECTRONICSTECHNICIAN

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

SENIORSCIENTIST*

SCIENTIST*

TSUNAMIWARNING AND

SCIENTIFICOFFICER

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

OFFICER

SCIENTIST*

*GEOPHYSICIST, OCEANOGRAPHER, OR PHYSICAL SCIENTIST

RED = WATCHSTANDINGPOSITION

PTWC STAFFING EARLY 2006

PTWC SCIENTIFIC STAFF

Tsunami Warning Science Officer (Deputy Director)Dr Stuart Weinstein, Geophysicist, PTWC TWSO

Senior ScientistsDr. Robert Cessaro, Geophysicist, PTWC

Barry Hirshorn, Geophysicist, PTWC Dr. Gerard Fryer, Geophysicist, U. Hawaii Dr. Vindell Hsu, Geophysicist, AFTAC Dr Dailin Wang, Oceanographer, IPRC

ScientistsDr. Victor Sardina, Geophysicist, EQ Engineering

Dr. David Walsh, Oceanographer, NRL and ARC Brian Shiro, Geophysicist, Washington U. Stuart Koyanagi, Geophysicist, USGS

Information Technology OfficerDr. Nathan Becker, Oceanographer, U. Hawaii

PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIESPTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

• SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESSEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES

• TSUNAMI WAVE MEASUREMENTSTSUNAMI WAVE MEASUREMENTS

• DECISION-MAKING PROCESSESDECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

• MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONMESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

KEY OPERATIONAL GOALSKEY OPERATIONAL GOALS

• FASTERFASTER

• MORE ACCURATEMORE ACCURATE

• MORE RELIABLEMORE RELIABLE

• MORE EFFECTIVEMORE EFFECTIVE

OPERATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING OPERATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES

• SEISMIC ANALYSES ONLY FOR INITIAL WARNINGS SEISMIC ANALYSES ONLY FOR INITIAL WARNINGS (FAST BUT FALSE ALARMS)(FAST BUT FALSE ALARMS)

• LONG WAIT FOR SEA LEVEL DATALONG WAIT FOR SEA LEVEL DATA

• TOO FEW AND ONLY POINT MEASUREMENTS OF TOO FEW AND ONLY POINT MEASUREMENTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE FIELDTSUNAMI WAVE FIELD

• LONG TIME BETWEEN EVENTS (CONFUSION)LONG TIME BETWEEN EVENTS (CONFUSION)

• NO DETECTION OF LANDSLIDE OR VOLCANIC NO DETECTION OF LANDSLIDE OR VOLCANIC SOURCESSOURCES

• TOO SLOW FOR LOCAL TSUNAMIS (MOST EVENTS)TOO SLOW FOR LOCAL TSUNAMIS (MOST EVENTS)

Mw less than 6.5(Mw: Moment Magnitude)

Earthquake Message Only

Mw 6.5 to 7.5Tsunami Information

Bulletin

Mw 7.6 to 7.8Regional Tsunami

Warning(1000-km Limit)

Mw > 7.8Expanding Warning /

Watch

Confirmed Teletsunami

Pacific-Wide Warning

PTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIAPTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIA

PTWC Criteria for Bulletins in the Indian Ocean RegionPTWC Criteria for Bulletins in the Indian Ocean Region

Bulletin Type Frequency of Bulletin

Tsunami Information Bulletin

1 or 2 times per year

Local Tsunami Watch Once every 25 years

Regional Tsunami Watch Once every 25 years

Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch

Once every 8 years

Frequency of Each Type of BulletinFrequency of Each Type of Bulletin(based on last 100 years of events)(based on last 100 years of events)

DECISION SUPPORTDECISION SUPPORT

• EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERSEARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS

• HISTORICAL DATAHISTORICAL DATA

• COASTAL GAUGE READINGSCOASTAL GAUGE READINGS

• DART READINGSDART READINGS

• REPORTS FROM REGIONREPORTS FROM REGION

• WHITMORE MODELWHITMORE MODEL

• SIFTSIFT

Earthquake Location

EQ Magnitude (Mw)

EQ Depth (km) Near or Under the Sea

Bulletin Type Threat to

PR or VI

Caribbean-Atlantic

>= 6.5 > 60km Yes Information Only

No Threat

Caribbean-Atlantic

>= 6.5 <= 60km Inland Information Only

No Threat

Just Offshore of PR or VI

6.0-6.4 <= 60km Yes Information Only

No Threat

Just Offshore of PR or VI

>= 6.5 <= 60km Yes Local Warning Recommended

Local Tsunami Threat

More Offshore to 2-hrs away

6.0-7.4 <= 60km Yes Information Only

No Threat

More Offshore to 2-hrs away

>= 7.5 <= 60 km Yes Warning Recommended

Regional Tsunami Threat

Greater than 2-hrs away

6.0-7.9 <= 60km Yes Information Only

No Threat

Greater than 2-hrs away

>= 8.0 <= 60km Yes Watch Recommended

Teletsunami Threat

Criteria for Puerto Rico and U.S Virgin Island Bulletins

EQ Magnitude Caribbean Only Caribbean & Atlantic

Mw >= 6.0 One per year Two per year

Mw >= 6.5 One every three years One per year

Mw >= 7.0 One every five years One every three years

Mw >= 7.5 One every eight years One every six years

Mw >= 8.0 One every fifty years One every fifteen years

One Significant Tsunamis every 20 Years (last 300 yrs)One Significant Tsunamis every 20 Years (last 300 yrs)

Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)

WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDEWHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE

• INITIAL BULLETINS 10-20 MINUTES AFTER THE INITIAL BULLETINS 10-20 MINUTES AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE FOR MOST EPICENTERSEARTHQUAKE FOR MOST EPICENTERS

• FOLLOW-UP BULLETINS WITH UPDATED FOLLOW-UP BULLETINS WITH UPDATED EVALUATIONS BASED ON AVAILABLE SEA LEVEL EVALUATIONS BASED ON AVAILABLE SEA LEVEL DATA AND FORECAST MODELS DATA AND FORECAST MODELS

• DISSEMINATION TO 7X24 FOCAL POINTS BY GTS, DISSEMINATION TO 7X24 FOCAL POINTS BY GTS, EMAIL, FAX, SMS, WEB SITEEMAIL, FAX, SMS, WEB SITE

• PHONE CALL TO NEAREST FOCAL POINTS IF A PHONE CALL TO NEAREST FOCAL POINTS IF A WARNING OR WATCHWARNING OR WATCH

WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDEWHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE

• ROUTINE COMMUNICATIONS TESTSROUTINE COMMUNICATIONS TESTS

• COMMUNICATIONS PLAN DESCRIBING COMMUNICATIONS PLAN DESCRIBING OPERATIONS PROCEDURESOPERATIONS PROCEDURES

• CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWSTHE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS

WHAT MUST MEMBER STATES PROVIDEWHAT MUST MEMBER STATES PROVIDE

• 7X24 FOCAL POINTS (KEPT UP TO DATE)7X24 FOCAL POINTS (KEPT UP TO DATE)

• PROCEDURES FOR ACTION IN RESPONSE TO PROCEDURES FOR ACTION IN RESPONSE TO BULLETINSBULLETINS

• FORECAST POINTSFORECAST POINTS

• RESPONSE TO COMMUNICATION TESTSRESPONSE TO COMMUNICATION TESTS

• ASSISTANCE WITH FIELD SITES (SEISMIC, SEA ASSISTANCE WITH FIELD SITES (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL, GPS)LEVEL, GPS)

• CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWSTHE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS

• LONG TERM COMMITMENTLONG TERM COMMITMENT

7X24 FOCAL POINT(S) INFORMATION7X24 FOCAL POINT(S) INFORMATION(to be collected and maintained by the ICG Secretariat)(to be collected and maintained by the ICG Secretariat)

• NAME OF FOCAL POINT AGENCY/OFFICENAME OF FOCAL POINT AGENCY/OFFICE

• OFFLINE CONTACT PERSON FOR THAT OFFICEOFFLINE CONTACT PERSON FOR THAT OFFICE

• MAILING ADDRESSMAILING ADDRESS

• 7X24 PHONE AND ALTERNATE PHONE(S)7X24 PHONE AND ALTERNATE PHONE(S)

• PRIMARY CONTACT METHOD (GTS, FAX, EMAIL, PRIMARY CONTACT METHOD (GTS, FAX, EMAIL, SMS, EMWIN)SMS, EMWIN)

• SECONDARY CONTACT METHODSECONDARY CONTACT METHOD

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWSISSUED AT 0117Z 11 APR 2005

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 13.0 NORTH 59.5 WEST LOCATION - BARBADOS MAGNITUDE - 6.7

Sample Tsunami Information BulletinSample Tsunami Information Bulletin

EVALUATION

A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.

AUTHORITIES IN - BARBADOS SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMIWARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONBECOMES AVAILABLE.

Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont)Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont)

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWSISSUED AT 0354Z 11 APR 2005

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

INDONESIA

FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS ANADVISORY ONLY.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 1.3 NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE - 7.2

Sample Local Tsunami Watch SupplementSample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER ------------------- ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- MALE 4.2N 73.5E 0448Z 0.19M 14MIN COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 0345Z 0.15M 22MIN TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH PER - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT

EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY NOR ACCURATELY EVALUATE THE THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.

Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMESMAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIMEBETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ INDONESIA SIMEULUE 2.5N 96.0E 0134Z 11 APR SIBERUT 1.5S 98.7E 0144Z 11 APR PADANG 0.9S 100.1E 0214Z 11 APR BANDA ACEH 5.5N 95.1E 0223Z 11 APR BENGKULU 3.9S 102.0E 0238Z 11 APR BANDAR LAMPUNG 6.0S 105.5E 0338Z 11 APR CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0351Z 11 APR BALI 9.0S 115.5E 0433Z 11 APR BELAWAN 3.8N 98.8E 0544Z 11 APR KUPANG 10.0S 123.4E 0549Z 11 APR

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMIWARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONBECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONFOR THIS EVENT.

Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)

PTWC Preliminary Forecast Points

FORECAST POINTSFORECAST POINTS

• USED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCHUSED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCH

• TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCHBULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCH

• PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATESREVIEW BY MEMBER STATES

• SHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACESSHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACES

• NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERSEVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS

• NOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONGNOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONG

TEST...TSUNAMI DUMMY – COMMUNICATIONS TEST...TESTPACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWSISSUED AT 0315Z 11 APR 2005

FROM: PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII

TO: TSUNAMI FOCAL POINTS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

AUSTRALIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT BANGLADESH – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT FRANCE – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT INDIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT INDONESIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT IRAN – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT KENYA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MADAGASCAR – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MALAYSIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MALDIVES – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MAURITIUS – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT . . .

--- ALL OTHERS PLEASE DISREGARD ---

Sample Communication TestSample Communication Test

SUBJECT: TSUNAMI DUMMY (COMMUNICATION TEST).

THIS IS A TEST TO VERIFY COMMUNICATION LINKS AND DETERMINETRANSMISSION TIMES INVOLVED IN DISSEMINATION OF TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION TO THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION.

RECIPIENTS ARE REQUESTED TO PLEASE RESPOND BACK TO THEPACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. THE RESPONSE SHOULD INCLUDE

1 - NAME OF OFFICE THAT RECEIVED THIS TEST 2 - METHOD OR METHODS BY WHICH OFFICE RECEIVED THIS TEST 3 - INCLUDE EMAIL ADDRESS OR FAX NUMBER OF EACH METHOD 3 - TIME OF RECEIPT OF THIS TEST BY EACH METHOD

PLEASE RESPOND VIA ONE OF THE FOLLOWING

EMAIL - PTWC@PTWC.NOAA.GOV TELEFAX - 808-689-4543

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THIS COMMUNICATION TEST.

Sample Communication Test (cont)Sample Communication Test (cont)

Shallow Pacific Earthquakes

0

100

200

300

400

500

7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

Mw

Nu

mb

er

of

Ev

en

ts p

er

Ce

ntu

ry

Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog

2500 Events

----------------23

DestructiveLocal

Tsunamis

Cu

mu

lati

ve E

ven

ts p

er C

entu

ry

Mw

Val

ue

Moment Magnitude, Mw

Information Bulletin

Mw = 6.5-7.5

Fixed 1000kmRegional Warning

Mw = 7.6-7.8

Expanding 3+3 hourRegional Warning/Watch

Mw > 7.8

150 Events----------------

20 Destructive

Local or Regional Tsunamis

100 Events----------------

30 Destructive

Local or Regional Tsunamis

8Tele-

Tsunamis

THE GENERAL CONCEPTTHE GENERAL CONCEPT

PTWCDesignatedGovernment

AuthorityPublic

Threat Evaluation

Evacuation Decision

DATA MESSAGE ALERT

Safety Response

TWO GENERAL CASESTWO GENERAL CASES

Local Tsunami• Must Respond in Minutes from Earthquake

• No Time for Official Decisions

• Immediate Public Alerting Necessary

• Automatic Public Evacuation Required

Regional or Teletsunami

• Must Respond within a Few Hours at Most

• More Time for Official Decisions

• More Time to Alert and Instruct Public

• Organized Evacuation Possible

HAWAII EVENT ALARMS HAWAII EVENT ALARMS

TYPE DATA TIMING

Big Island Amplitude

CREST Broadband

20-30 sec

Automatic Loc & Mag

PTWC and HVO SP

20-30 sec

HON SP/LP PTWC HON SP & LP

1 min

Runup Runup Detectors

2-10 min

Coastal Sea Level

NOS Gauges

5-10 min

Deep Ocean Sea Level

Hawaii DART

5-10 min

SE

ISM

ICS

EA

LE

VE

L

OPSCENTER

QUARTERS1

QUARTERS2

QUARTERS5

QUARTERS3

QUARTERS4

NOW: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)

2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)

RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMSRESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS

ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN)

• VERIFY ITS AN ACTUAL LOCAL EARTHQUAKE.VERIFY ITS AN ACTUAL LOCAL EARTHQUAKE.

• SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.

• REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.

• INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.

• DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.

• CHECK RUNUP AND SEA LEVEL DATA.CHECK RUNUP AND SEA LEVEL DATA.

• COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.

Mag 4 - 6.8 Earthquake Message Only

Mag 4 - 6.8 with runup or coastal

gauge signal

Warning to nearest counties

Mw 6.9 – 7.5 Warning to nearest counties

Mw > 7.5 Statewide Warning

Confirmed Major Local Tsunami

Statewide Warning

HAWAII BULLETIN CRITERIAHAWAII BULLETIN CRITERIA

ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC

Public

Voice

HAWAS

EMAIL

Text

State & County

Emer Ops

State & County

Warning Pts

HonoluluForecast

OfficeFAX

NWR

SIRENS

EAS

PTWC

The Public must be The Public must be educated to respond educated to respond

immediately based upon immediately based upon having felt shaking from the having felt shaking from the

earthquake and upon earthquake and upon hearing sirens, EAS, or NWR hearing sirens, EAS, or NWR

alerts. There is no time to alerts. There is no time to verify the warning or wait for verify the warning or wait for

instructions. instructions.

PACIFIC EVENT ALARMS PACIFIC EVENT ALARMS

TYPE DATA TIMING

Big Island Amplitude

GSN / IMS Broadband

2-7 min

Automatic Loc & Mag

PTWC and HVO SP

5-15 min

HON LP PTWC HON LP

7-20 min

Coastal Sea Level

NOS Gauges

15 min – 1 hour*

Deep Ocean Sea Level

Hawaii DART

15 min – 2 hours*

SE

ISM

ICS

EA

LE

VE

L

* for areas with coverage

OPSCENTER

QUARTERS1

QUARTERS2

QUARTERS5

QUARTERS3

QUARTERS4

NOW: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)

2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)

RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMSRESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS

ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN)

• VERIFY ITS A LARGE PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE.VERIFY ITS A LARGE PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE.

• SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.

• REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.

• INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.

• DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.

• COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.

Mw less than 6.5(Mw: Moment Magnitude)

Earthquake Message Only

Mw 6.5 to 7.5 Tsunami Information

Bulletin

Mw 7.6 to 7.8 Regional Tsunami Warning

Mw > 7.8 Expanding Warning / Watch

Confirmed Teletsunami

Pacific-Wide Warning

PACIFIC INITIAL BULLETIN CRITERIAPACIFIC INITIAL BULLETIN CRITERIA

SUBSEQUENT BULLETINSSUBSEQUENT BULLETINS

DECISION SUPPORT

• Additional Seismic Parameters

• Coastal Sea Level Readings

• DART Readings

• Reliable Reports

• Historical Data

• Forecast Models

DECISIONS

• Upgrade to Warning

• Continue Warning

• Expand Warning

• Cancel Warning

ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC

Public

GTS

Text

Hawaii CivilDefense

US Interestsin the Pacific

DesignatedAgencies ofCountries

AFTN

RADIO

SIRENS

TV

PTWCFAX

EMAIL

EMWIN

RAYNET

TALK

Designated Agencies must Designated Agencies must be prepared with an be prepared with an

Operations Plan to respond Operations Plan to respond quickly and alert the public quickly and alert the public

when necessary based upon when necessary based upon the information received the information received

from PTWC and any from PTWC and any supplemental data or supplemental data or information they may information they may

receive. This could include receive. This could include advice from local experts. advice from local experts.

100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

• POWERPOWER: All operational systems on a central UPS : All operational systems on a central UPS backed up by a generator with one week of fuel.backed up by a generator with one week of fuel.

• CENTER HARDWARECENTER HARDWARE: Hardware duplicated into : Hardware duplicated into primary and redundant systems. primary and redundant systems.

• DATA SOURCESDATA SOURCES: Seismic and sea level data come from : Seismic and sea level data come from multiple sources. multiple sources.

• DATA COMMUNICATIONSDATA COMMUNICATIONS: Data is sent to PTWC over : Data is sent to PTWC over multiple links whenever possible.multiple links whenever possible.

100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

• DATA PROCESSINGDATA PROCESSING: Multiple algorithms for EQ : Multiple algorithms for EQ detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model guidance.guidance.

• MESSAGINGMESSAGING: Multiple dissemination methods to reach : Multiple dissemination methods to reach designated contact points by multiple means.designated contact points by multiple means.

• DUTY PERSONSDUTY PERSONS: Two persons always on duty on the : Two persons always on duty on the Center compound.Center compound.

• BACKUP CENTERBACKUP CENTER: PTWC and WC/ATWC provide : PTWC and WC/ATWC provide backup service for each other.backup service for each other.

LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITYLONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

• NATIONAL SUPPORTNATIONAL SUPPORT: National commitment to Center : National commitment to Center operations. As a part of the US National Weather operations. As a part of the US National Weather Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the environment and issues advisories, watches, and environment and issues advisories, watches, and warnings.warnings.

• ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORTORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT: Organizations of : Organizations of stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency managers, warning center operators, and scientists managers, warning center operators, and scientists provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues.issues.

LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITYLONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

• MULTI-FUNCTION SEISMICMULTI-FUNCTION SEISMIC: Seismic stations operated : Seismic stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, and geophysical research.and geophysical research.

• MULTI-FUNCTION SEA LEVELMULTI-FUNCTION SEA LEVEL: Sea level stations : Sea level stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including tides, storm surge, El Nipurposes including tides, storm surge, El Niño, and ño, and long-term sea level riselong-term sea level rise..

• MULTI-FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONSMULTI-FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONS: Data : Data communications methods shared when possible. communications methods shared when possible. Message disseminations over multi-purpose circuits Message disseminations over multi-purpose circuits such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.

LONG TERM READINESSLONG TERM READINESS

• FREQUENT ALARMSFREQUENT ALARMS: Duty staff respond to one or two : Duty staff respond to one or two earthquakes per day on averageearthquakes per day on average

• FREQUENT BULLETINSFREQUENT BULLETINS: Bulletin criteria set so system : Bulletin criteria set so system is exercised regularly. is exercised regularly.

Pacific:Pacific: Mw >= 6.5Mw >= 6.5 ~2 events/month~2 events/monthHawaii:Hawaii: ml > 4.0ml > 4.0 ~1 event/month~1 event/month

• COMMUNICATION TESTSCOMMUNICATION TESTS: Monthly communication : Monthly communication tests with response required ensure communication tests with response required ensure communication links working and reinforce readiness.links working and reinforce readiness.

• EXERCISESEXERCISES: Tabletop and more realistic exercises : Tabletop and more realistic exercises expose weaknesses and provide practice.expose weaknesses and provide practice.

17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of 17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of Generation-Propagation Model and TsunameterGeneration-Propagation Model and Tsunameter

Real Time Detection of Real Time Detection of November 17, 2003 TsunamiNovember 17, 2003 Tsunami

Tsunami

TsunamiTsunami

Seismic

Challenge: Challenge: Source Detection and CharacterizationSource Detection and Characterization

• Fill gaps in seismic coverageFill gaps in seismic coverage

• Faster Parameters – Source Mechanism and Faster Parameters – Source Mechanism and Slip DistributionSlip Distribution

• More accurately define the tsunami from the More accurately define the tsunami from the source parameterssource parameters

• Non-seismic sources – landslides, Non-seismic sources – landslides, submarine slumps, volcanoes, meteorssubmarine slumps, volcanoes, meteors

Challenge: Challenge: Wave Detection and CharacterizationWave Detection and Characterization

• Fill gaps in Coastal coverageFill gaps in Coastal coverage

• Fill gaps in Deep Ocean coverageFill gaps in Deep Ocean coverage

• Design Affordable and Sustainable GaugesDesign Affordable and Sustainable Gauges

• Find Alternate Methods for Wave Detection Find Alternate Methods for Wave Detection and Measurementand Measurement

Challenge: Challenge: Accurate ForecastingAccurate Forecasting

• Models / methodologies need verificationModels / methodologies need verification

• Forecasts need confidence limitsForecasts need confidence limits

• Forecast must be produced quicklyForecast must be produced quickly

• Ingest and incorporate new measurements Ingest and incorporate new measurements as they arriveas they arrive

Challenge: Challenge: Warning DisseminationWarning Dissemination

• Need to be able to quickly alert an Need to be able to quickly alert an unsuspecting public at any time of day or unsuspecting public at any time of day or night to an impending tsunaminight to an impending tsunami

• Need to provide instructions on what to doNeed to provide instructions on what to do

• Need to disseminate properly crafted Need to disseminate properly crafted message so public will react correctly to message so public will react correctly to save their livessave their lives

THANK YOU THANK YOU