18
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. BUY - 1 of 18 - Wednesday 26 th February, 2014 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `89.7 CMP `70.6 CY15E PE 15.9x Index Details A series of positives are coming together for Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), which lead us to believe that its revenue and earnings could grow at CAGR of 21.5% and 19.2%, respectively, over the period CY12-15. At these rates, the company should achieve revenues of `746.7 crore and earnings of `272.4 crore by CY15E. Our optimism regarding the company’s prospects is based on the following: Being a leading port, located on the west coast, GPPL is expected to benefit from the increasing container volume traffic and capacity constraints at major ports in the region. We expect container volumes at GPPL to grow at a CAGR of 12.0% (from 661K TEUs in CY13) to 829K TEUs by CY15 and revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5% CAGR to `476.6 crore over the same period. By CY14, the company’s 65 meter liquid jetty is slated to be operational. With the introduction of high margin liquid handling business to the company’s profile, we expect revenues from this segment to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15. This should contribute `43.1 crore to its EBITDA (68% margin). After much ado, GPPL has received MoEF approval to expand its container handling capacity. The company expects to complete this expansion by CY16E. Once operational, the cash flows generated should see a spurt from current levels of ~ `50 crore per quarter. Further, GPPL’s close proximity to JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), good connectivity by road and rail to industrial hinterlands and efficient operations give the company significant advantages, enabling it to compare favorably to its peers JNPT and Mundra ports. We initiate coverage on GPPL as a BUY with a price objective of `89.7 (15.9x CY15 earnings). This represents a potential upside of ~27% over a period of 24 months. At the CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its estimated earnings for CY14E and CY15E, respectively. Environment clearance will pave way for commencing Expansion The recent MoEF approval has paved the way for commencement of it’s ~`850 Sensex 20,987 Nifty 6,239 BSE 100 6,196 Industry Port Scrip Details Mkt Cap (` cr) 3,413 BVPS (`) 29.0 O/s Shares (Cr) 48.3 Av Vol (Lacs) 2.0 52 Week H/L 73/41 Div Yield (%) 0.0 FVPS (`) 10.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 43.0 DIIs 12.9 FIIs 33.8 Public 10.2 Total 100.0 GPPL vs. Sensex Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Dec Net Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2012 416.0 181.9 74.0 1.6 14.3 6.1 12.7 42.7 20.0 2013 517.9 256.8 191.8 4.0 142.1 13.7 16.8 17.6 14.2 2014E 618.7 296.6 213.5 4.4 11.3 13.2 15.1 16.0 12.3 2015E 746.7 365.2 272.4 5.6 27.6 14.4 15.1 12.5 10.0

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Page 1: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.

BUY

- 1 of 18 - Wednesday 26th February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price `89.7 CMP `70.6 CY15E PE 15.9x

Index Details A series of positives are coming together for Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.

(GPPL), which lead us to believe that its revenue and earnings could grow at

CAGR of 21.5% and 19.2%, respectively, over the period CY12-15. At these

rates, the company should achieve revenues of `746.7 crore and earnings of

`272.4 crore by CY15E.

Our optimism regarding the company’s prospects is based on the following:

Being a leading port, located on the west coast, GPPL is expected to

benefit from the increasing container volume traffic and capacity

constraints at major ports in the region. We expect container volumes

at GPPL to grow at a CAGR of 12.0% (from 661K TEUs in CY13) to

829K TEUs by CY15 and revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%

CAGR to `476.6 crore over the same period.

By CY14, the company’s 65 meter liquid jetty is slated to be

operational. With the introduction of high margin liquid handling

business to the company’s profile, we expect revenues from this

segment to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15. This should contribute `43.1

crore to its EBITDA (68% margin).

After much ado, GPPL has received MoEF approval to expand its

container handling capacity. The company expects to complete this

expansion by CY16E. Once operational, the cash flows generated

should see a spurt from current levels of ~ `50 crore per quarter.

Further, GPPL’s close proximity to JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port

Trust), good connectivity by road and rail to industrial hinterlands

and efficient operations give the company significant advantages,

enabling it to compare favorably to its peers – JNPT and Mundra

ports.

We initiate coverage on GPPL as a BUY with a price objective of `89.7 (15.9x

CY15 earnings). This represents a potential upside of ~27% over a period of

24 months. At the CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its

estimated earnings for CY14E and CY15E, respectively.

Environment clearance will pave way for commencing

Expansion

The recent MoEF approval has paved the way for commencement of it’s ~`850

Sensex 20,987

Nifty 6,239

BSE 100 6,196

Industry Port

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (` cr) 3,413

BVPS (`) 29.0

O/s Shares (Cr) 48.3

Av Vol (Lacs) 2.0

52 Week H/L 73/41

Div Yield (%) 0.0

FVPS (`) 10.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 43.0

DIIs 12.9

FIIs 33.8

Public 10.2

Total 100.0

GPPL vs. Sensex

Key Financials (` in Cr)

Y/E Dec Net

Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2012 416.0 181.9 74.0 1.6 14.3 6.1 12.7 42.7 20.0

2013 517.9 256.8 191.8 4.0 142.1 13.7 16.8 17.6 14.2

2014E 618.7 296.6 213.5 4.4 11.3 13.2 15.1 16.0 12.3

2015E 746.7 365.2 272.4 5.6 27.6 14.4 15.1 12.5 10.0

Page 2: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 2 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

crore planned expansion. The implementation of the same should be completed by

CY16E and take care of future revenue growth. On the back of traction in container

volumes and strong pricing we expect revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%

CAGR to `476.6 crore (CY13-CY15). The new high margin liquid business is

expected to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15 having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1

crore. Overall revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in

CY13 to `746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of strong container volumes and

implementation of the new liquid terminal. Correspondingly earnings are expected to

grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from `191.8 crore in CY13 to `272.4 crore in CY15.

Strategically located gives GPPL added advantage

We believe that the strategic location of the GPPL port, which is in close proximity to

JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), should enable it to benefit from the

spillover demand from JNPT (which is riddled with significant capacity constraint).

Additionally it’s under utilized rail connectivity to the northern industrial hinterland

stands it in good stead to deliver cargo traffic faster than that from Mundra and

Mumbai (which are bridled with heavy priority passenger traffic).

Further the draft of its port is comparable to that of its peers enabling large ships to

dock comfortably. In addition its efficient operations with the lowest turn around time

in the industry provide a good incentive for ships to call its ports.

Valuation

We initiate coverage on Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. as a BUY with a Price Objective of

`89.7 representing a potential upside of ~27% over a period of 24 months. At the

CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its estimated earnings for

CY14E and CY15E respectively. However, on a conservative basis we have valued

the company at a PE of 15.9x, which is at a 20% discount to its historical PE.

Page 3: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 3 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and

operated by APM Terminals (part of A.P. Moller-Maersk Group) has multi-cargo and

multi-user operations in the state of Gujarat. It has emerged as one of the principal

gateways on the West Coast of India and it provides excellent access to shipping

lines through international routes, as well as for the cargo belt in North and North-

West Region of India. The port has Container capacity of ~ 850,000 TEUs per

annum, Bulk Cargo capacity of ~ 5 MTPA and Liquid Cargo capacity of ~ 2 MTPA.

APM Terminals is the Lead Promoter of the Company and holds 43.01%. APM

Terminals has a global terminal network of 25,000 employees in 68 countries

including interests in 69 port and terminal facilities and 160 Inland Services

operations.

Company Profile

Gujarat Pipavav

ContainerRev- ` 351.3 Cr

BulkRev- ` 122.1 Cr

Liquid(Operation will commence

from CY14)

385 meter container

berth

850k TEUs yard

capacity

5 Post Panamax, 3

Panamax, 18 RTGs

360 meter dedicated

dry bulk (berth 1&2)

and 330 meter

multipurpose (berth 3)

1 Gottwald crane

Multipurpose

conveyor system:1200

meters

65 meter liquid jetty

#Rev: Revenue

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 4: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 4 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights

Environment clearance will pave way for commencing

Expansion

The recent MoEF approval has paved the way for commencement of it’s ~`850 crore

planned expansion. The implementation of the same should be completed by

CY16E and take care of future revenue growth. On the back of traction in container

volumes and strong pricing we expect revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%

CAGR to `476.6 crore (CY13-CY15). The new high margin liquid business is

expected to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15 having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1

crore. Overall revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in

CY13 to `746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of strong container volumes and

implementation of the new liquid terminal. Correspondingly earnings are expected to

grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from `191.8 crore in CY13 to `272.4 crore in CY15.

GPPL getting final clearances for expansion

The MoEF (Union Ministry of Environment and Forests) had cleared Pipavav’s

proposed ~`850 crore expansion way back in 2012, However it could not initiate the

implementation as the ‘go ahead’ was challenged by an NGO through an application

with the National Green Tribunal (NGT). Subsequent to this an EAC (expert

appraisal committee) was set up which upheld the permission of the MoEF.

The recent clearance by MoEF has paved the way for the expansion to roll out and

we expect the capex to gain traction.

Capex curtailed to expansion of container terminal and liquid

jetty; bulk capacity expansion put on back burner

GPPL’s capex plans have been scaled down from `1100 crore to ~`850 to cater to

the dynamics of the demand market. With no clarity on the status of the two power

plants of Videocon and Torrent (to which bulk of the coal was to be supplied from

Pipavav’s bulk terminal), Pipavav saw no economic sense in going ahead with the

slated expansion of its bulk terminal capacity. Hence the capex was curtailed to

augment container capacity and the promising new business opportunity of the liquid

handling business.

Page 5: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 5 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

The existing operation of the company is currently generating strong cash flows of

~`50 crore per quarter. We forecast that the company would need ~`450 crore of

debt to fund the total capex with the balance being generated through internal

accruals. The funding is expected to be done through the ECB route. Post this

expansion the Debt-Equity ratio is expected to rise marginally to 0.3x from the

existing 0.2x.

Container business expected to outperform

With the exception of the last two years (when industrial growth has slowed down

sharply) the container business has traditionally grown at 1.5x GDP in India. And

with port container handling capacity not keeping pace with the projected growth in

demand, the growth prospects of the container business appear promising.

Notably with most of the container business being carried out on the west coast and

there being acute shortage of spare capacity, the prospects of Pipavav’s container

business never seemed rosier.

GPPL planned capex

Particulars (`Cr) Container Common Infra

Berth 228 -

Dredging - 207

Yard & Conveyor 94 -

Equipment 238 -

Roads - 54.5

Others 47.2 -

Total 607.2 261.5

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Debt/Equity Ratio (x)

0.3

0.2

0.3 0.3

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

(x)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 6: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 6 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Container Traffic in India Major Container Ports

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12

(mn teu)

Throughput yoy Growth (RHS)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

JN

PT

Mu

nd

ra

Pip

avav

Kan

dla

Mu

mb

ai

Ch

en

nai

Ko

lkata

Tu

tlco

rin

Co

ch

in

Viz

ag

(000'teu)Major ports in the west coast

Utilization ofJNPT at 108%

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Container Ports Utilization Rates

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12

(mn teu)

Capacity-india Capacity Utilisation (RHS)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 7: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 7 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

We expect Pipavav’s container volumes to grow at a faster pace than that of the

overall industry. We estimate container business volumes to grow at a CAGR of

12.0% (from 661K TEUs in CY13) to 829K TEUs by CY15. Further given the

capacity constraints, we foresee no problems of Pipavav experiencing resistance to

price hikes and consequently revenues are expected to grow at a faster clip of

16.5% CAGR to `476.6 crore over the same period.

GPPL Container Volumes GPPL Container Revenue & Margin Trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

('000 TEU)

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

No major expansion plan on the west coast

Ports TerminalsBeam

(mts)Draft

Capacity

('000 TEUs)Utilization Capex

Mundra International Container Terminal 632 13.3 1250

Adani Mundra container terminal 631 17.5 1250

Adani Mundra SB container terminal 810 1500Started in FY14 (50:50 JV with Mediterranean Shipping Corp)

Total 2073 4000

Berth 1 385 14.5 850 70%

Berth 2 348 14.5 650 ~`850 cr cost of expansion to be commenced in CY14, expected

completion in Q1CY16

Total (Without Capex) 385 850

Total (With Capex) 733 1500

2 Container Berths 630 13.0

2 Multipurpose Berths 770 13.0

Total 1400 1300

JNPCT 680 12.5

NSICT 600 12.5

GTI 712 13.5

4th Container Terminal 4800~`7915 cr expected cost of expansion, it is unlikely to be operational before

CY17 as it is still awaitaing government cleareances.

Total (Without Capex) 1992 4800

Total (With Capex) 9600

66%

Mundra

108%4800

JNPT

1300

Pipavav

Hazira85%

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 8: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 8 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

High margin liquid business to boost revenue & profitability

growth

Although the liquid business is yet to commence operations, we are quite enthused

by the fact that Pipavav has already signed up three clients – Aegis Logistics, Gulf

Petrochem and IMC – for contracts worth 660KL. These operations are expected to

start in Q2CY14 and we have conservatively modeled ~60% utilization in CY14 and

~80% in CY15. We are quite optimistic of the prospects of the liquid business given

its strategic advantage of being located near the Bharuch district (Chemical belt of

Gujarat).

Revenues from this high margin business segment are expected to grow to `63.4

crore by CY15 and having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1 crore (68% margin).

Bulk business to experience muted growth

As we stated earlier, the uncertainty over the future of the power projects of Torrent

and Videocon groups has forced the management to do a rethink on the expansion

of the bulk terminal. The bulk business has grown marginally by 4.0% in CY13

despite an increase in uptake of fertilizers due to good monsoon. The management

is not very gung ho on the future prospects of this segment. Also the recent revision

of coal freight rates by the railways has resulted in lower off take by one of its

customers up north. Accordingly we expect revenue to grow at a two year CAGR of

3.0% to `132.8 crore in CY15E as compared to `122.1 crore clocked in CY13.

Liquid Revenue Trend

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CY14E CY15E

` Crore

Revenue

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 9: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 9 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Overall Revenue and Earnings to see a robust growth

Total revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in CY13 to

`746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of traction in the container business and

implementation of the new liquid terminal. The EBITDA is expected to grow at a

CAGR of 19.2% from `256.8 crore in CY13 to `365.2 crore in CY15. The margins

are expected to be stable (48.9% in CY15) with the high margin liquid business

offsetting the lukewarm growth of the bulk business.

Bulk Volume Bulk Revenue & Margin Trend

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

('000 MT)

37%

37%

37%

37%

38%

38%

38%

38%

38%

39%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Overall Revenue & EBITDA Trend

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA (RHS) EBITDA Margins

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 10: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 10 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Strategic location of its ports facility gives GPPL added

advantage

We believe that the strategic location of the GPPL port, which is in close proximity to

JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), should enable it to benefit from the

spillover demand from JNPT (which is riddled with significant capacity constraint).

Additionally it’s under utilized rail connectivity to the northern industrial hinterland

stands it in good stead to deliver cargo traffic faster than that from Mundra and

Mumbai (which are bridled with heavy priority passenger traffic).

Further the draft of its port is comparable to that of its peers enabling large ships to

dock comfortably. In addition its efficient operations with the lowest turn around time

in the industry provide a good incentive for ships to call its ports.

Nearness to JNPT - Strategic location advantage

Currently the JNPT port located at Mumbai is working at 108% capacity utilization.

Further capacity expansion at this port lacks visibility due to regulatory hurdles. Even

if the planned 4th terminal gets approval it would be nearly 4 years before operations

could commence. This capacity constraint coupled with the strong traction expected

in container volumes (on the west coast) augurs well for GGPL due its close

proximity to JNPT.

Pipavav (152 nautical miles from JNPT) is well connected by road and rail to

Mumbai and hence ships which call the Pipavav port have an easy access to the

increasing demand of the Mumbai geography. GPPL’s parent APM also has a

terminal at JNPT which is operating near its full capacity. And this too can serve to

provide incremental traffic.

Page 11: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 11 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Excellent rail-road connectivity to North and North-Western

India

GPPL has 38.8% stake in Pipavav Railways Corp. Ltd. (PRCL) a joint venture with

the Indian Railways. PRCL has a rail network which runs from Pipavav to

Surendranagar, which is an important junction and connects Pipavav to the northern

hinterland.

Strategic Location of Pipavav

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Rail Road Connectivity

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 12: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 12 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Since railways have a regulation of giving the priority to passengers, essential

commodities (fertilizers, coal etc) and then container traffic in that order, we believe

Pipavav has an advantage over Mumbai and Adani’s Mundra port. Both the lines

connecting Mundra and Mumbai have heavy passenger movement resulting in

slower movement of goods traffic compared to Pipavav.

The PRCL line has a capacity to handle 22 trains each way per day and is currently

operating at 50% utilization. In our opinion this less congested route offers for faster

transport of goods given that the goods trains, enroute from Mumbai, can ply only

during the wee hours of the night (12 PM to 5 AM) when passenger traffic is minimal.

Further PRCL has the capability to handle high cube double stack containers which

provide economies of scale. PRCL also provides good connectivity to the Dedicated

Freight Corridor (DFC) and is an added advantage.

PRCL is a debt free company which clocked a topline of `178.9 crore in FY13

(18.3% YoY growth). PAT was reported at `46.4 crore. It paid an interim maiden

dividend of `3.8 crore in Q3CY13. With traction in container volume expected over

the period CY13-15, we expect PRCL (operating at 50% utilization) to attain good

traction which should improve its profitability and consequently result in higher

dividend payout to Pipavav.

Pipavav Port’s draft adequate for large ships to berth

GPPL has a draft of 14.5 meters which is comparable to that of its peers viz JNPT

(13.5 m) and Mundra (17.5 m) and most of the large ships that ply to Mumbai and

Mundra can also make a port of call at Pipavav.

Revenue and Profitability of PRCL

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 13: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

- 13 of 18 - Wednesday 26th

February, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Efficiency of cargo handling operations at Pipavav is best

among peers

GPPL leverages the shipping experience and wide network of its parent, APM

Terminals (which operates 71 ports and 160 inland services across 68 countries).

The turnaround time at GPPL is the lowest in the industry with 32 moves in an hour

as compared to the industry average of 26-28 moves. This provides a good incentive

for ships to call the Pipavav port.

Key Concerns A slowdown in the economy can lead to a decrease in container traffic

leading to lower then expected earnings and profitability.

For the planned capex Pipavav is raising ECB loans. Hence any adverse

movement in USD-INR could impact the company’s financials. However given

the fact that earnings are dollar denominated, in our opinion, the forex earnings

will serve as a natural hedge.

Any delay on project execution period or cost escalation can significantly

impact the profitability of the projected.

An appeal by any of the authority against the environment approval given by

EAC can lead to further delay in expansion plans.

Financial Performance

In Q4CY13, revenues grew by 22.3% YoY to `145.2 crore, primarily driven by good

traction seen in container volumes and an increase in fertilizers imports. EBIDTA too

have seen an impressive improvement of 47.0% YoY to `83.5 crore vs `56.8 crore

in Q4CY13). EBIDTA margins witnessed an improvement of 970 bps on account of

higher utilization in container space and increase in reefer volumes. PAT at `77.1

crore was up by a whopping 114.2% YoY as compared to `36.0 crore clocked in

Q4CY12.

Page 14: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

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Financial Outlook

With increase in container traffic in India, GPPL is well placed to benefit from the

incremental traffic due to overloaded capacity of its peers. This along with expansion

of the container berth and high margin liquid business is expected drive earnings

growth going forward. As a result, we expect the company’s revenue to grow at a

CAGR of ~20.1% over CY13-15E to `746.7 crore with an EBITDA margin of 48.9%

by CY15E. The earnings, are expected to grow at ~19.2% CAGR over CY13-15E to

`272.4 crore by CY15E from `191.7 crore in CY13.

Quarterly Financial Performance (` in crore)

Particulars Q4CY13 Q4CY12 CY13 CY12

Net Sales 145.2 118.8 517.9 416.0

Growth % 22.3 24.5

Total Expenditure 61.7 62.0 261.1 234.2

EBIDTA 83.5 56.8 256.8 181.8

EBDITA Margin % 57.5 47.8 49.6 43.7

Depreciation 16.8 13.8 60.8 54.9

EBIT (EX OI) 66.7 43.0 196.0 126.9

Other Income 2.7 2.8 16.8 15.4

EBIT 69.4 45.7 212.8 142.3

Margin % 47.8 38.5 41.1 34.2

Interest 8.7 9.8 37.4 68.4

Exceptional items 16.4 0.0 16.4 0.0

PBT 77.1 36.0 191.8 73.9

Margin % 53.1 30.3 37.0 17.8

Provision for Tax 0 0 0.0 0.0

PAT 77.1 36.0 191.8 73.9

PAT Margin (%) 53.1 30.3 37.0 17.8

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

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Valuation

We initiate coverage on Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. as a BUY with a Price Objective of

`89.7 representing a potential upside of ~27% over a period of 24 months. At the

CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its estimated earnings for

CY14E and CY15E respectively. GPPL direct peer competitor listed in the Indian

market like Adani Ports Ltd. and Essar Ports Ltd are valued at:

Revenue & Profitability Trend

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 16: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

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February, 2014

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However, on a conservative basis we have valued the company at a PE of 15.9x,

which is at a 20% discount to its historical PE.

Peers Comparison

P/E EV/EBITDA

(x) (x)

Gujarat Pipavav2013 517.9 256.8 191.8 4.0 142.1 13.7 17.8 14.3

2014E 618.7 296.6 213.5 4.4 11.3 13.2 16.0 12.4

2015E 746.7 365.2 272.4 5.6 27.6 14.4 12.5 10.0

Adani Port2013 3486.4 2720.1 1623.2 7.7 30.5 28.9 21.5 15.5

2014E 4551.1 2969.3 1747.3 8.6 11.7 23.1 19.3 15.4

2015E 5334.8 3549 2180.4 10.6 10.6 22.1 15.5 12.9

Essar Port2013 1421.5 1141.3 334.6 7.8 122.9 13.5 6.6 6.1

2014E 1680.3 1226.8 364.7 8.5 9 12.6 6.1 6.1

2015E 1939.7 1455.2 451.5 9.3 9.4 13.4 5.5 5.2

AP Moeller (USD)2013 5908.8 1259.3 326.7 748.2 41.2 8.8 11.1 4.8

2014E 5698.5 1261.4 359.3 817.6 9.3 12.6 14.4 5.3

2015E 5624.7 1409.5 481.9 1039.0 27.1 11.4 11.4 4.8

Global Ports (USD)2013 50.18 22.8 17.1 0.3 50 12.1 39.2 11.2

2014E 51.1 28.5 14.7 0.9 200 15.6 14.1 9.5

2015E 70.3 42.9 20.4 1.2 33.3 20.7 10.5 6.3

Y/E Dec Net

Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS

EPS

Growth

(%)

RONW

(%)

International Companies

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 17: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

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P/E

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14

CMP 12X 19.8X 27.6X 35.4X 43.2X

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

P/BV

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14

CMP 1.4X 1.8X 2.2X 2.6X 3X

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

EV/EBITDA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14

EV 8X 10.75X 13.5X 16.25X 19X

Source: GPPL, Ventura Research

Page 18: Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.ventura1.com/download/Gujarat_Pipavav_Ports_Ltd.pdfCompany Background Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and operated

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Financials and Projections

Y/E Dec, Fig in ` Cr CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014E CY 2015E Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014E CY 2015E

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 416.0 517.9 618.7 746.7 EPS 1.6 4.0 4.4 5.6

% Chg. 24.5 19.4 20.7 Cash EPS 75.1 193.0 215.0 274.2

Total Expenditure 234.2 261.1 322.0 381.5 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

% Chg. 11.5 23.3 18.5 Book Value 25.1 29.0 33.4 39.1

EBITDA 181.9 256.8 296.6 365.2 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBITDA Margin % 43.7 49.6 47.9 48.9 Debt / Equity (x) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3

Other Income 15.4 16.8 20.6 20.6 Current Ratio (x) 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.8

Exceptional items 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 6.1 13.7 13.2 14.4

PBDIT 197.3 290.0 317.2 385.8 ROCE (%) 12.7 16.8 15.1 15.1

Depreciation 54.9 60.8 74.5 88.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest 68.4 37.4 29.2 24.9 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 P/E 42.7 17.6 15.8 12.4

Tax Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8

Reported PAT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 EV/Sales 8.7 7.0 5.9 4.9

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIDTA 20.0 14.2 12.3 10.0

PAT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 Efficiency Ratio (x)

PAT Margin (%) 17.8 37.0 34.5 36.5 Inventory (days) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Employee Benefit / Sales (%) 8.7% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5% Debtors (days) 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7

Tax Rate (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Creditors (days) 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.1

Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement

Share Capital 483.4 483.4 483.4 483.4 Profit Before Tax 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4

Reserves & Surplus 728.3 920.1 1133.5 1405.9 Depreciation & Amortisation 54.9 60.8 74.5 88.5

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes 84.9 11.1 -11.1 -15.8

Long-Term Provisions 22.3 23.9 30.7 36.4 Direct Taxes Paid and Others 48.3 19.9 7.9 -2.3

Long-Term Borrowings 303.9 281.9 443.4 607.4 Operating Cash Flow 262.1 283.6 284.7 342.8

Other Long-Term Liabilities 10.6 11.8 15.8 19.0 Capital Expenditure -175.1 -272.6 -350.0 -450.0

Total Liabilities 1548.5 1721.1 2106.8 2552.1 Dividend Received 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gross Block 1782.1 2054.7 2404.7 2854.7 Others 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Less: Acc. Depreciation 535.9 590.8 654.2 728.7 Cash Flow from Investing -162.8 -272.6 -350.0 -450.0

Net Block 1246.2 1463.9 1750.5 2126.0 Increase/(Decrease) in Loan Fund -366.9 -21.9 161.5 164.0

Capital Work in Progress 157.7 0.0 241.5 284.0 Others 344.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Non-Current Investments 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 Interest Paid -66.7 -37.4 -29.2 -24.9

Net Current Assets 1.6 117.0 -57.5 -48.6 Cash Flow from Financing -88.8 -59.4 132.3 139.1

Deferred Tax Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Change in Cash 10.5 -64.8 67.0 31.9

Other Non-Current Assets 60.0 57.3 89.3 107.8 Opening Cash Balance 40.5 51.1 -13.7 53.3

Total Assets 1548.6 1721.1 2106.8 2552.1 Closing Cash Balance 51.1 -13.7 53.3 85.2

Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.