Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.
BUY
- 1 of 18 - Wednesday 26th February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
ST
OC
K P
OIN
TE
R
Target Price `89.7 CMP `70.6 CY15E PE 15.9x
Index Details A series of positives are coming together for Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.
(GPPL), which lead us to believe that its revenue and earnings could grow at
CAGR of 21.5% and 19.2%, respectively, over the period CY12-15. At these
rates, the company should achieve revenues of `746.7 crore and earnings of
`272.4 crore by CY15E.
Our optimism regarding the company’s prospects is based on the following:
Being a leading port, located on the west coast, GPPL is expected to
benefit from the increasing container volume traffic and capacity
constraints at major ports in the region. We expect container volumes
at GPPL to grow at a CAGR of 12.0% (from 661K TEUs in CY13) to
829K TEUs by CY15 and revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%
CAGR to `476.6 crore over the same period.
By CY14, the company’s 65 meter liquid jetty is slated to be
operational. With the introduction of high margin liquid handling
business to the company’s profile, we expect revenues from this
segment to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15. This should contribute `43.1
crore to its EBITDA (68% margin).
After much ado, GPPL has received MoEF approval to expand its
container handling capacity. The company expects to complete this
expansion by CY16E. Once operational, the cash flows generated
should see a spurt from current levels of ~ `50 crore per quarter.
Further, GPPL’s close proximity to JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port
Trust), good connectivity by road and rail to industrial hinterlands
and efficient operations give the company significant advantages,
enabling it to compare favorably to its peers – JNPT and Mundra
ports.
We initiate coverage on GPPL as a BUY with a price objective of `89.7 (15.9x
CY15 earnings). This represents a potential upside of ~27% over a period of
24 months. At the CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its
estimated earnings for CY14E and CY15E, respectively.
Environment clearance will pave way for commencing
Expansion
The recent MoEF approval has paved the way for commencement of it’s ~`850
Sensex 20,987
Nifty 6,239
BSE 100 6,196
Industry Port
Scrip Details
Mkt Cap (` cr) 3,413
BVPS (`) 29.0
O/s Shares (Cr) 48.3
Av Vol (Lacs) 2.0
52 Week H/L 73/41
Div Yield (%) 0.0
FVPS (`) 10.0
Shareholding Pattern
Shareholders %
Promoters 43.0
DIIs 12.9
FIIs 33.8
Public 10.2
Total 100.0
GPPL vs. Sensex
Key Financials (` in Cr)
Y/E Dec Net
Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS
EPS Growth (%)
RONW (%)
ROCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2012 416.0 181.9 74.0 1.6 14.3 6.1 12.7 42.7 20.0
2013 517.9 256.8 191.8 4.0 142.1 13.7 16.8 17.6 14.2
2014E 618.7 296.6 213.5 4.4 11.3 13.2 15.1 16.0 12.3
2015E 746.7 365.2 272.4 5.6 27.6 14.4 15.1 12.5 10.0
- 2 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
crore planned expansion. The implementation of the same should be completed by
CY16E and take care of future revenue growth. On the back of traction in container
volumes and strong pricing we expect revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%
CAGR to `476.6 crore (CY13-CY15). The new high margin liquid business is
expected to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15 having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1
crore. Overall revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in
CY13 to `746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of strong container volumes and
implementation of the new liquid terminal. Correspondingly earnings are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from `191.8 crore in CY13 to `272.4 crore in CY15.
Strategically located gives GPPL added advantage
We believe that the strategic location of the GPPL port, which is in close proximity to
JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), should enable it to benefit from the
spillover demand from JNPT (which is riddled with significant capacity constraint).
Additionally it’s under utilized rail connectivity to the northern industrial hinterland
stands it in good stead to deliver cargo traffic faster than that from Mundra and
Mumbai (which are bridled with heavy priority passenger traffic).
Further the draft of its port is comparable to that of its peers enabling large ships to
dock comfortably. In addition its efficient operations with the lowest turn around time
in the industry provide a good incentive for ships to call its ports.
Valuation
We initiate coverage on Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. as a BUY with a Price Objective of
`89.7 representing a potential upside of ~27% over a period of 24 months. At the
CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its estimated earnings for
CY14E and CY15E respectively. However, on a conservative basis we have valued
the company at a PE of 15.9x, which is at a 20% discount to its historical PE.
- 3 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Company Background
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL), India’s first private sector port, managed and
operated by APM Terminals (part of A.P. Moller-Maersk Group) has multi-cargo and
multi-user operations in the state of Gujarat. It has emerged as one of the principal
gateways on the West Coast of India and it provides excellent access to shipping
lines through international routes, as well as for the cargo belt in North and North-
West Region of India. The port has Container capacity of ~ 850,000 TEUs per
annum, Bulk Cargo capacity of ~ 5 MTPA and Liquid Cargo capacity of ~ 2 MTPA.
APM Terminals is the Lead Promoter of the Company and holds 43.01%. APM
Terminals has a global terminal network of 25,000 employees in 68 countries
including interests in 69 port and terminal facilities and 160 Inland Services
operations.
Company Profile
Gujarat Pipavav
ContainerRev- ` 351.3 Cr
BulkRev- ` 122.1 Cr
Liquid(Operation will commence
from CY14)
385 meter container
berth
850k TEUs yard
capacity
5 Post Panamax, 3
Panamax, 18 RTGs
360 meter dedicated
dry bulk (berth 1&2)
and 330 meter
multipurpose (berth 3)
1 Gottwald crane
Multipurpose
conveyor system:1200
meters
65 meter liquid jetty
#Rev: Revenue
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 4 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Key Investment Highlights
Environment clearance will pave way for commencing
Expansion
The recent MoEF approval has paved the way for commencement of it’s ~`850 crore
planned expansion. The implementation of the same should be completed by
CY16E and take care of future revenue growth. On the back of traction in container
volumes and strong pricing we expect revenues to grow at a faster clip of 16.5%
CAGR to `476.6 crore (CY13-CY15). The new high margin liquid business is
expected to grow to `63.4 crore by CY15 having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1
crore. Overall revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in
CY13 to `746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of strong container volumes and
implementation of the new liquid terminal. Correspondingly earnings are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from `191.8 crore in CY13 to `272.4 crore in CY15.
GPPL getting final clearances for expansion
The MoEF (Union Ministry of Environment and Forests) had cleared Pipavav’s
proposed ~`850 crore expansion way back in 2012, However it could not initiate the
implementation as the ‘go ahead’ was challenged by an NGO through an application
with the National Green Tribunal (NGT). Subsequent to this an EAC (expert
appraisal committee) was set up which upheld the permission of the MoEF.
The recent clearance by MoEF has paved the way for the expansion to roll out and
we expect the capex to gain traction.
Capex curtailed to expansion of container terminal and liquid
jetty; bulk capacity expansion put on back burner
GPPL’s capex plans have been scaled down from `1100 crore to ~`850 to cater to
the dynamics of the demand market. With no clarity on the status of the two power
plants of Videocon and Torrent (to which bulk of the coal was to be supplied from
Pipavav’s bulk terminal), Pipavav saw no economic sense in going ahead with the
slated expansion of its bulk terminal capacity. Hence the capex was curtailed to
augment container capacity and the promising new business opportunity of the liquid
handling business.
- 5 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
The existing operation of the company is currently generating strong cash flows of
~`50 crore per quarter. We forecast that the company would need ~`450 crore of
debt to fund the total capex with the balance being generated through internal
accruals. The funding is expected to be done through the ECB route. Post this
expansion the Debt-Equity ratio is expected to rise marginally to 0.3x from the
existing 0.2x.
Container business expected to outperform
With the exception of the last two years (when industrial growth has slowed down
sharply) the container business has traditionally grown at 1.5x GDP in India. And
with port container handling capacity not keeping pace with the projected growth in
demand, the growth prospects of the container business appear promising.
Notably with most of the container business being carried out on the west coast and
there being acute shortage of spare capacity, the prospects of Pipavav’s container
business never seemed rosier.
GPPL planned capex
Particulars (`Cr) Container Common Infra
Berth 228 -
Dredging - 207
Yard & Conveyor 94 -
Equipment 238 -
Roads - 54.5
Others 47.2 -
Total 607.2 261.5
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Debt/Equity Ratio (x)
0.3
0.2
0.3 0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
(x)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 6 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Container Traffic in India Major Container Ports
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12
(mn teu)
Throughput yoy Growth (RHS)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
JN
PT
Mu
nd
ra
Pip
avav
Kan
dla
Mu
mb
ai
Ch
en
nai
Ko
lkata
Tu
tlco
rin
Co
ch
in
Viz
ag
(000'teu)Major ports in the west coast
Utilization ofJNPT at 108%
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Container Ports Utilization Rates
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12
(mn teu)
Capacity-india Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 7 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
We expect Pipavav’s container volumes to grow at a faster pace than that of the
overall industry. We estimate container business volumes to grow at a CAGR of
12.0% (from 661K TEUs in CY13) to 829K TEUs by CY15. Further given the
capacity constraints, we foresee no problems of Pipavav experiencing resistance to
price hikes and consequently revenues are expected to grow at a faster clip of
16.5% CAGR to `476.6 crore over the same period.
GPPL Container Volumes GPPL Container Revenue & Margin Trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
('000 TEU)
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
` Crore
Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
No major expansion plan on the west coast
Ports TerminalsBeam
(mts)Draft
Capacity
('000 TEUs)Utilization Capex
Mundra International Container Terminal 632 13.3 1250
Adani Mundra container terminal 631 17.5 1250
Adani Mundra SB container terminal 810 1500Started in FY14 (50:50 JV with Mediterranean Shipping Corp)
Total 2073 4000
Berth 1 385 14.5 850 70%
Berth 2 348 14.5 650 ~`850 cr cost of expansion to be commenced in CY14, expected
completion in Q1CY16
Total (Without Capex) 385 850
Total (With Capex) 733 1500
2 Container Berths 630 13.0
2 Multipurpose Berths 770 13.0
Total 1400 1300
JNPCT 680 12.5
NSICT 600 12.5
GTI 712 13.5
4th Container Terminal 4800~`7915 cr expected cost of expansion, it is unlikely to be operational before
CY17 as it is still awaitaing government cleareances.
Total (Without Capex) 1992 4800
Total (With Capex) 9600
66%
Mundra
108%4800
JNPT
1300
Pipavav
Hazira85%
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 8 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
High margin liquid business to boost revenue & profitability
growth
Although the liquid business is yet to commence operations, we are quite enthused
by the fact that Pipavav has already signed up three clients – Aegis Logistics, Gulf
Petrochem and IMC – for contracts worth 660KL. These operations are expected to
start in Q2CY14 and we have conservatively modeled ~60% utilization in CY14 and
~80% in CY15. We are quite optimistic of the prospects of the liquid business given
its strategic advantage of being located near the Bharuch district (Chemical belt of
Gujarat).
Revenues from this high margin business segment are expected to grow to `63.4
crore by CY15 and having an EBITDA contribution of `43.1 crore (68% margin).
Bulk business to experience muted growth
As we stated earlier, the uncertainty over the future of the power projects of Torrent
and Videocon groups has forced the management to do a rethink on the expansion
of the bulk terminal. The bulk business has grown marginally by 4.0% in CY13
despite an increase in uptake of fertilizers due to good monsoon. The management
is not very gung ho on the future prospects of this segment. Also the recent revision
of coal freight rates by the railways has resulted in lower off take by one of its
customers up north. Accordingly we expect revenue to grow at a two year CAGR of
3.0% to `132.8 crore in CY15E as compared to `122.1 crore clocked in CY13.
Liquid Revenue Trend
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CY14E CY15E
` Crore
Revenue
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 9 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Overall Revenue and Earnings to see a robust growth
Total revenue is expected to grow at 20.1% CAGR from `517.9 crore in CY13 to
`746.7 crore in CY15 on the back of traction in the container business and
implementation of the new liquid terminal. The EBITDA is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 19.2% from `256.8 crore in CY13 to `365.2 crore in CY15. The margins
are expected to be stable (48.9% in CY15) with the high margin liquid business
offsetting the lukewarm growth of the bulk business.
Bulk Volume Bulk Revenue & Margin Trend
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
('000 MT)
37%
37%
37%
37%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%
39%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
` Crore
Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Overall Revenue & EBITDA Trend
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
` Crore
Revenue EBITDA (RHS) EBITDA Margins
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 10 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Strategic location of its ports facility gives GPPL added
advantage
We believe that the strategic location of the GPPL port, which is in close proximity to
JNPT port (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust), should enable it to benefit from the
spillover demand from JNPT (which is riddled with significant capacity constraint).
Additionally it’s under utilized rail connectivity to the northern industrial hinterland
stands it in good stead to deliver cargo traffic faster than that from Mundra and
Mumbai (which are bridled with heavy priority passenger traffic).
Further the draft of its port is comparable to that of its peers enabling large ships to
dock comfortably. In addition its efficient operations with the lowest turn around time
in the industry provide a good incentive for ships to call its ports.
Nearness to JNPT - Strategic location advantage
Currently the JNPT port located at Mumbai is working at 108% capacity utilization.
Further capacity expansion at this port lacks visibility due to regulatory hurdles. Even
if the planned 4th terminal gets approval it would be nearly 4 years before operations
could commence. This capacity constraint coupled with the strong traction expected
in container volumes (on the west coast) augurs well for GGPL due its close
proximity to JNPT.
Pipavav (152 nautical miles from JNPT) is well connected by road and rail to
Mumbai and hence ships which call the Pipavav port have an easy access to the
increasing demand of the Mumbai geography. GPPL’s parent APM also has a
terminal at JNPT which is operating near its full capacity. And this too can serve to
provide incremental traffic.
- 11 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Excellent rail-road connectivity to North and North-Western
India
GPPL has 38.8% stake in Pipavav Railways Corp. Ltd. (PRCL) a joint venture with
the Indian Railways. PRCL has a rail network which runs from Pipavav to
Surendranagar, which is an important junction and connects Pipavav to the northern
hinterland.
Strategic Location of Pipavav
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
Rail Road Connectivity
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 12 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Since railways have a regulation of giving the priority to passengers, essential
commodities (fertilizers, coal etc) and then container traffic in that order, we believe
Pipavav has an advantage over Mumbai and Adani’s Mundra port. Both the lines
connecting Mundra and Mumbai have heavy passenger movement resulting in
slower movement of goods traffic compared to Pipavav.
The PRCL line has a capacity to handle 22 trains each way per day and is currently
operating at 50% utilization. In our opinion this less congested route offers for faster
transport of goods given that the goods trains, enroute from Mumbai, can ply only
during the wee hours of the night (12 PM to 5 AM) when passenger traffic is minimal.
Further PRCL has the capability to handle high cube double stack containers which
provide economies of scale. PRCL also provides good connectivity to the Dedicated
Freight Corridor (DFC) and is an added advantage.
PRCL is a debt free company which clocked a topline of `178.9 crore in FY13
(18.3% YoY growth). PAT was reported at `46.4 crore. It paid an interim maiden
dividend of `3.8 crore in Q3CY13. With traction in container volume expected over
the period CY13-15, we expect PRCL (operating at 50% utilization) to attain good
traction which should improve its profitability and consequently result in higher
dividend payout to Pipavav.
Pipavav Port’s draft adequate for large ships to berth
GPPL has a draft of 14.5 meters which is comparable to that of its peers viz JNPT
(13.5 m) and Mundra (17.5 m) and most of the large ships that ply to Mumbai and
Mundra can also make a port of call at Pipavav.
Revenue and Profitability of PRCL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
` Crore
Revenue EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 13 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Efficiency of cargo handling operations at Pipavav is best
among peers
GPPL leverages the shipping experience and wide network of its parent, APM
Terminals (which operates 71 ports and 160 inland services across 68 countries).
The turnaround time at GPPL is the lowest in the industry with 32 moves in an hour
as compared to the industry average of 26-28 moves. This provides a good incentive
for ships to call the Pipavav port.
Key Concerns A slowdown in the economy can lead to a decrease in container traffic
leading to lower then expected earnings and profitability.
For the planned capex Pipavav is raising ECB loans. Hence any adverse
movement in USD-INR could impact the company’s financials. However given
the fact that earnings are dollar denominated, in our opinion, the forex earnings
will serve as a natural hedge.
Any delay on project execution period or cost escalation can significantly
impact the profitability of the projected.
An appeal by any of the authority against the environment approval given by
EAC can lead to further delay in expansion plans.
Financial Performance
In Q4CY13, revenues grew by 22.3% YoY to `145.2 crore, primarily driven by good
traction seen in container volumes and an increase in fertilizers imports. EBIDTA too
have seen an impressive improvement of 47.0% YoY to `83.5 crore vs `56.8 crore
in Q4CY13). EBIDTA margins witnessed an improvement of 970 bps on account of
higher utilization in container space and increase in reefer volumes. PAT at `77.1
crore was up by a whopping 114.2% YoY as compared to `36.0 crore clocked in
Q4CY12.
- 14 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financial Outlook
With increase in container traffic in India, GPPL is well placed to benefit from the
incremental traffic due to overloaded capacity of its peers. This along with expansion
of the container berth and high margin liquid business is expected drive earnings
growth going forward. As a result, we expect the company’s revenue to grow at a
CAGR of ~20.1% over CY13-15E to `746.7 crore with an EBITDA margin of 48.9%
by CY15E. The earnings, are expected to grow at ~19.2% CAGR over CY13-15E to
`272.4 crore by CY15E from `191.7 crore in CY13.
Quarterly Financial Performance (` in crore)
Particulars Q4CY13 Q4CY12 CY13 CY12
Net Sales 145.2 118.8 517.9 416.0
Growth % 22.3 24.5
Total Expenditure 61.7 62.0 261.1 234.2
EBIDTA 83.5 56.8 256.8 181.8
EBDITA Margin % 57.5 47.8 49.6 43.7
Depreciation 16.8 13.8 60.8 54.9
EBIT (EX OI) 66.7 43.0 196.0 126.9
Other Income 2.7 2.8 16.8 15.4
EBIT 69.4 45.7 212.8 142.3
Margin % 47.8 38.5 41.1 34.2
Interest 8.7 9.8 37.4 68.4
Exceptional items 16.4 0.0 16.4 0.0
PBT 77.1 36.0 191.8 73.9
Margin % 53.1 30.3 37.0 17.8
Provision for Tax 0 0 0.0 0.0
PAT 77.1 36.0 191.8 73.9
PAT Margin (%) 53.1 30.3 37.0 17.8
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 15 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Valuation
We initiate coverage on Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. as a BUY with a Price Objective of
`89.7 representing a potential upside of ~27% over a period of 24 months. At the
CMP of `70.6, the stock is trading at 16.0x and 12.5x its estimated earnings for
CY14E and CY15E respectively. GPPL direct peer competitor listed in the Indian
market like Adani Ports Ltd. and Essar Ports Ltd are valued at:
Revenue & Profitability Trend
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
` Crore
Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT Margin (RHS)
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 16 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
However, on a conservative basis we have valued the company at a PE of 15.9x,
which is at a 20% discount to its historical PE.
Peers Comparison
P/E EV/EBITDA
(x) (x)
Gujarat Pipavav2013 517.9 256.8 191.8 4.0 142.1 13.7 17.8 14.3
2014E 618.7 296.6 213.5 4.4 11.3 13.2 16.0 12.4
2015E 746.7 365.2 272.4 5.6 27.6 14.4 12.5 10.0
Adani Port2013 3486.4 2720.1 1623.2 7.7 30.5 28.9 21.5 15.5
2014E 4551.1 2969.3 1747.3 8.6 11.7 23.1 19.3 15.4
2015E 5334.8 3549 2180.4 10.6 10.6 22.1 15.5 12.9
Essar Port2013 1421.5 1141.3 334.6 7.8 122.9 13.5 6.6 6.1
2014E 1680.3 1226.8 364.7 8.5 9 12.6 6.1 6.1
2015E 1939.7 1455.2 451.5 9.3 9.4 13.4 5.5 5.2
AP Moeller (USD)2013 5908.8 1259.3 326.7 748.2 41.2 8.8 11.1 4.8
2014E 5698.5 1261.4 359.3 817.6 9.3 12.6 14.4 5.3
2015E 5624.7 1409.5 481.9 1039.0 27.1 11.4 11.4 4.8
Global Ports (USD)2013 50.18 22.8 17.1 0.3 50 12.1 39.2 11.2
2014E 51.1 28.5 14.7 0.9 200 15.6 14.1 9.5
2015E 70.3 42.9 20.4 1.2 33.3 20.7 10.5 6.3
Y/E Dec Net
Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS
EPS
Growth
(%)
RONW
(%)
International Companies
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 17 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
P/E
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
CMP 12X 19.8X 27.6X 35.4X 43.2X
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
P/BV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
CMP 1.4X 1.8X 2.2X 2.6X 3X
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
EV/EBITDA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
EV 8X 10.75X 13.5X 16.25X 19X
Source: GPPL, Ventura Research
- 18 of 18 - Wednesday 26th
February, 2014
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financials and Projections
Y/E Dec, Fig in ` Cr CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014E CY 2015E Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014E CY 2015E
Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)
Net Sales 416.0 517.9 618.7 746.7 EPS 1.6 4.0 4.4 5.6
% Chg. 24.5 19.4 20.7 Cash EPS 75.1 193.0 215.0 274.2
Total Expenditure 234.2 261.1 322.0 381.5 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% Chg. 11.5 23.3 18.5 Book Value 25.1 29.0 33.4 39.1
EBITDA 181.9 256.8 296.6 365.2 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
EBITDA Margin % 43.7 49.6 47.9 48.9 Debt / Equity (x) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Other Income 15.4 16.8 20.6 20.6 Current Ratio (x) 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.8
Exceptional items 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 6.1 13.7 13.2 14.4
PBDIT 197.3 290.0 317.2 385.8 ROCE (%) 12.7 16.8 15.1 15.1
Depreciation 54.9 60.8 74.5 88.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest 68.4 37.4 29.2 24.9 Valuation Ratio (x)
PBT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 P/E 42.7 17.6 15.8 12.4
Tax Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/BV 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8
Reported PAT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 EV/Sales 8.7 7.0 5.9 4.9
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIDTA 20.0 14.2 12.3 10.0
PAT 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4 Efficiency Ratio (x)
PAT Margin (%) 17.8 37.0 34.5 36.5 Inventory (days) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Employee Benefit / Sales (%) 8.7% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5% Debtors (days) 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7
Tax Rate (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Creditors (days) 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.1
Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement
Share Capital 483.4 483.4 483.4 483.4 Profit Before Tax 74.0 191.8 213.5 272.4
Reserves & Surplus 728.3 920.1 1133.5 1405.9 Depreciation & Amortisation 54.9 60.8 74.5 88.5
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes 84.9 11.1 -11.1 -15.8
Long-Term Provisions 22.3 23.9 30.7 36.4 Direct Taxes Paid and Others 48.3 19.9 7.9 -2.3
Long-Term Borrowings 303.9 281.9 443.4 607.4 Operating Cash Flow 262.1 283.6 284.7 342.8
Other Long-Term Liabilities 10.6 11.8 15.8 19.0 Capital Expenditure -175.1 -272.6 -350.0 -450.0
Total Liabilities 1548.5 1721.1 2106.8 2552.1 Dividend Received 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross Block 1782.1 2054.7 2404.7 2854.7 Others 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Less: Acc. Depreciation 535.9 590.8 654.2 728.7 Cash Flow from Investing -162.8 -272.6 -350.0 -450.0
Net Block 1246.2 1463.9 1750.5 2126.0 Increase/(Decrease) in Loan Fund -366.9 -21.9 161.5 164.0
Capital Work in Progress 157.7 0.0 241.5 284.0 Others 344.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-Current Investments 83.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 Interest Paid -66.7 -37.4 -29.2 -24.9
Net Current Assets 1.6 117.0 -57.5 -48.6 Cash Flow from Financing -88.8 -59.4 132.3 139.1
Deferred Tax Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Change in Cash 10.5 -64.8 67.0 31.9
Other Non-Current Assets 60.0 57.3 89.3 107.8 Opening Cash Balance 40.5 51.1 -13.7 53.3
Total Assets 1548.6 1721.1 2106.8 2552.1 Closing Cash Balance 51.1 -13.7 53.3 85.2
Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.