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Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont
Beyond Environmentalism
Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable FutureRobert CostanzaGund Professor of Ecological Economics and Director, Gund Institute of Ecological EconomicsRubenstein School of Environment and Natural ResourcesUniversity of VermontBurlington, VT 05401
http://www.uvm.edu/giee
In their essay “The Death of Environmentalism,” Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus identified a critical missing element in the environmental movement. Despite the extreme threats to our future, they claimed that “not one of America’s environmental leaders is articulating a vision of the future commensurate with the magnitude of the crisis.” Environmentalism has instead relied on a negative vision, a complaint-based style of activism that fails to engage with the public. It has become too focused on technical policy fixes and single-issue politics and is “no longer capable of dealing with the world’s most serious ecological
crisis.”
The object of this seminar series is to move beyond the negative environmentalism of the past by creating a positive, detailed, shared vision of a sustainable and desirable future—a future in which living in harmony with nature is not a sacrifice, but an improvement in everyone’s quality of life; a future that can captivate and motivate the public; a future that we would be proud to leave to our grandchildren. Until we create and widely share this vision, we have no hope of achieving it.
January 19 Robert Costanza, University of Vermont“Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable Future”
January 26 Josh Farley, University of Vermont"Beyond Sacrifice: the Relationship between Sustainability and Quality of Life."
February 2 Rik Leemans, Wageningen University“Scenarios of a sustainable and desirable future: lessons from the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment”
February 9 Ernest Callenbach, Author of “Ecotopia” and “Ecotopia Emerging”“Ecotopia revisited: life in a sustainable and desirable future”
February 16 Daniel Fogel, University of Vermont“The university in a sustainable and desirable future”
February 23 Bryan Norton, Georgia Tech"The Re-Birth of Environmentalism as Pragmatic, Adaptive Management."
March 2 Richard Heinberg, New College of California“After the party: energy in a sustainable and desirable future”
March 9 David Batker, Earth Economics“The institutions of a sustainable and desirable future”
March 16 Mary Evelyn Tucker, Harvard University"The Emerging Alliance of Religion and Ecology"
March 23 Spring Break
March 30 Bill McKibben, Middlebury College“Thinking small: scale and desire”
April 6 Jon Isham, Middlebury College“Building the new movement for a sustainable low-carbon future”
April 13 Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland“The political economy of a sustainable and desirable future”
April 20 (evening) Lin Ostrom, Indiana University“The challenge of building social capital in a sustainable and desirable future”
April 27 David Orr, Oberlin College“Politics and the environment in a sustainable and desirable future”
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont
Practical Problem SolvingRequires the Integration of:
• Visiona. How the world worksb. How we would like the world to be
• Tools and Analysisappropriate to the vision
• Implementationappropriate to the vision
GrowingEconomicSubsystem
RecycledMatter
Energy
Resources
Energy
Resources
SolarEnergy
Waste Heat
"EmptyWorld"
SinkFunctions
SourceFunctions
FInite Global Ecosystem
AnthroposphereAnthroposphere
Marc Imhoff
Biospheric Sciences Branch
NASA
QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Empty World Energy
Planning?
Labor
Land
EconomicProcess
GoodsandServices
CulturalNorms andPolicy
IndividualUtility/welfare
Consumption(based on fixedpreferences)
Improvement
Education, Training,Research
Building
Investment(decisions about, taxesgovernment spending,education,science andtechnologypolicy, etc., basedon existing propertyrights regimes)
Property rights
Private Public
GNP
Manufacturedcapital
”Empty World" Model of the Economy
Perf
ect
Su
bst
itu
tab
ility
Betw
een
Fact
ors
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of VermontThe Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-1997
OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2004 ScenarioUpdated by Colin J. Campbell, 2004-05-15
March 2 Richard Heinberg New“After the party: energy in a sustainable
and desirable future”
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Atmosphere
NCAR can now run these kinds of models for more than 1000 years
Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data on marine and terrestrial plant productivity
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Biosphere
GrowingEconomic
Subsystem
RecycledMatter
Resources
SolarEnergy
Waste Heat
"FullWorld"
Energy Energy
Resources
FInite Global Ecosystem
SinkFunctions
SourceFunctions
Human Capital EconomicProductionProcess
GoodsandServices
EvolvingCulturalNorms andPolicy
Well Being(Individual andCommunity)
Consumption(based on changing,adaptingpreferences)
Education, training,
research.
Building
Investment(decisions about, taxescommunity spending,education, science andtechnology policy, etc., basedon complex propertyrights regimes)
Individual Public
GNP
Wastes
Common
Ecologicalservices/amenities
having, being
- having,- being
negative impacts on all forms of capital
being, doing, relating
Restoration,
ConservationNatural Capital
ManufacturedCapital
having
positive impacts on human capital capacity
doing, relatingComplex propertyrights regimes
SolarEnergy
SocialCapital
Lim
ited
Su
bst
ituta
bili
tyB
etw
ee
n C
ap
ital F
orm
s
“Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System
Waste heat
Institutional
rules, norms, etc.
Materially closed earth system
From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard. 1997. An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.
SustainableHuman
Well-Being
BuiltCapital(built infrastructure,factories,houses,roads, etc.)
SocialCapital
(social networks,family and friends,
norms and rules,institutions, etc.)
NaturalCapital
(non-built infrastructure,ecosystems,
biodiversity, etc.)
HumanCapital(population,
health, education,
information, etc.)
TechnologicalOptimism
Resources are unlimitedTechnical Progress candeal with any challenge
Compitition promotesprogress; markets are the
guiding principle
Optimists Are Right(Resources are unlimited)
Skeptics Are Right(Resources are limited)
Real State of the World
Star TrekFusion energy becomespractical, solving manyeconomic and environmentalproblems.Humans journey to the innersolar system, where populationcontinues to expand(mean rank 2.3)
from: Costanza, R. 2000. Visions of alternative (unpredictable) futures and their use in policy analysis. Conservation Ecology 4(1):5. [online]
URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/art5
TechnologicalSkepticsm
Resources are limitedProgress depends less ontechnology and more on
social and communitydevelopment
Cooperation promotesprogress; markets are the
servants of larger goals
Big GovernmentGovernments sanctioncompanies that fail to pursuethe public interest.Fusion energy is slow todevelop due to strict safteystandards.Family-planning programsstabilize population growth.Incomes become more equal.(mean rank 0.8)
Mad MaxOil production declines and noaffordable alternative emerges.Financial markets collapse andgovernments weaken, too broketo maintain order and controlover desperate, impoverishedpopulations.The world is run bytransnational corporations.(mean rank -7.7)
EcoTopiaTax reforms favor ecologicallybeneficent industries and punishpolluters and resource depleters.Habitation patterns reduce needfor transportation and energy.A shift away from consumerismincreases quality of life andreduces waste.(mean rank 5.1)
Four Visions of the Future
EmptyWorldVision
FullWorldVision
Changes in human well-being under Millennium Assessment scenarios
– In three of the four MA scenarios, between three and five of the components of well-being (material needs, health, security, social relations, freedom) improve between 2000 and 2050
– In one scenario (Order from Strength) conditions are projected to decline, particularly in developing countries
(BigGovernment,
B1)
(MadMax,A2)
(Ecotopia,B2)
(StarTrek,A1)
February 2nd Rik Leemans, Wageningen University“Scenarios of a sustainable and desirable future: lessons from the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment”
.
StarTrek
-10
0
+10 MadMax BigGov Ecotopia
-10
0
+10
Mean
Mean
MeanMean
Number of respondents
Ranking
Donella (Dana) Meadows1941-2001
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont
1. In order to effectively envision, it is necessary to focus on what one really wants, not what one will settle for, i.e.
Really Want Settle ForSelf esteem Fancy carSerenity DrugsHealth MedicineHuman Happiness GNPPermanent Prosperity Unsustainable Growth
2. A vision should be judged by the clarity of its goals, not the clarity of its implementation path. Holding to the vision and being flexible about the path is often the only way to find the path. 3. Responsible vision must acknowledge, but not get crushed by, the physical and political constraints of the real world
4. It is critical for visions to be shared because only shared visions can be responsible.
5. Vision has to be flexible and evolving. Thus the process of envisioning is at least as important as the particular visions themselves.
Principles of Effective Envisioning*
*from Meadows, D. 1996. Envisioning a Sustainable World. pp. 117-126 In: Getting Down to Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, edited by R. Costanza, O. Segura, and J. Martinez-Alier. Washington D.C.: Island Press.
Autonomous Individuals
Institutions(ie. markets, legal systems, etc.)
Goals
A. Current conception: Individuals as autonomous agents acting through institutions toachieve their goals. All individuals are not equally empowered in this process, however,goals are not shared, and there is no process for adjusting goals or institutions.
Current Situation: Lack of Shared Vision
Shared Envisioning
Shared Vision
Community Institutions, Cultural Norms, etc
Individuals in Community
B. Proposed conception: Individuals participate directly in developing a shared vision for thesociety. This vision is translated into institutions aimed at achieving the vision.
A. Before the process: many individuals have not really thought about their visionsof a sustainable and desirable society. Their visions are narrow or vague and disjointed.
B. Intermediate stage: Individual visions are developed and expanded, and,through the dialog process, areas of consensus are identified and expanded.
Shared Vision
C. Shared envisioning Shared vision is identified and articulated. The sharedvision leaves apmle room for individual expression and uniqueness, while providinga core of shared values and desires. Individual visions are actually strengthenedand empowered in this process.
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont
Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable America
World View Humans as a part of nature Steady state, ecological economy Goal quality of life rather than consumption
Built Capital Runs on renewable energy and natural capital Emphasis on quality rather than quantity Small communities rule (both within and outside cities)
The vision so far (see http://www.uvm.edu/giee/ESDA)
Natural Capital Protected as essential life support Depletion heavily taxed
Human Capital Balance of synthesis, analysis, and communication Meaningful, creative work and leisure Stable populations
Social Capital A primary source of productivity and well-being “Strong” democracy
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.
Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont
The Challenge:
Create a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable future
January 19 Robert Costanza, University of Vermont“Envisioning a Sustainable and Desirable Future”
January 26 Josh Farley, University of Vermont"Beyond Sacrifice: the Relationship between Sustainability and Quality of Life."
February 2 Rik Leemans, Wageningen University“Scenarios of a sustainable and desirable future: lessons from the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment”
February 9 Ernest Callenbach, Author of “Ecotopia” and “Ecotopia Emerging”“Ecotopia revisited: life in a sustainable and desirable future”
February 16 Daniel Fogel, University of Vermont“The university in a sustainable and desirable future”
February 23 Bryan Norton, Georgia Tech"The Re-Birth of Environmentalism as Pragmatic, Adaptive Management."
March 2 Richard Heinberg, New College of California“After the party: energy in a sustainable and desirable future”
March 9 David Batker, Earth Economics“The institutions of a sustainable and desirable future”
March 16 Mary Evelyn Tucker, Harvard University"The Emerging Alliance of Religion and Ecology"
March 23 Spring Break
March 30 Bill McKibben, Middlebury College“Thinking small: scale and desire”
April 6 Jon Isham, Middlebury College“Building the new movement for a sustainable low-carbon future”
April 13 Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland“The political economy of a sustainable and desirable future”
April 20 (evening) Lin Ostrom, Indiana University“The challenge of building social capital in a sustainable and desirable future”
April 27 David Orr, Oberlin College“Politics and the environment in a sustainable and desirable future”