Haddad Oecd Future of Development 2012

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Future of Development and

Development Cooperation

Lawrence Haddad

Institute of Development Studies, UK



• Growth is good

• Focus on poor countries

• Material well being

• MDGs

• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,

Solutions over here

Developmentin Transition



• Growth is good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good



Growth: highly variable effects on

•

Poverty – Growth by sector

– Growth by inequality

–

Growth by region – Growth by governance regime

• Impacts on ecological footprints

•

WellbeingBut there are choices





National: Poverty down by 12% –

survey

7 February2012

Rwandan

poverty rates

decline from

57% to 45%between 2006

and 2011



• Growth is good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good

• Focus on poor people



Large countries are back in the growth game



Future IDA Graduates?

IDA 16/17 Angola, Armenia, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bos&Herz, Congo,

Djibouti, Georgia, Guyana, Honduras, Moldova,

Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Uzbekistan, Cameroon,

India, Nigeria, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia

IDA 18/19 Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Kyrgyz Rep, Laos, Mauritania,

PNG / Cambodia, Ghana, Lesotho, Nicaragua,

Pakistan, Senegal, Tajikistan

IDA 20/21 Bangladesh, Benin

Moss, Todd and Benjamin Leo. 2011. “IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile

Lease on Life?” Center for Global Development, Working Paper 246, March.

DFID Bilateral Graduates: 43 in 2011, to 27 in 2016

and ODA is focusing on fewer poor countries



Figure 4: Changes in numbers in poverty 1998-2007

210 199

18

102

455

683

159

212

146 146

451

212

low fragile low non

fragile

middle

fragile

middle

nonfragile

india china

1988-90 2007-08

(millions)

From data in Sumner 2010

But 70% of the world’s poor

live in middle income countries



• Growth is good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good


• More rounded view of

well being



Measurement matters: MPI vs $1.25 /day

Source: OPHI 2010



UK



Japan=Philippines on happiness

Russia=Mexico on GDP/cap

Happiness and GDP/cap PPP



• Growth is Good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good



well being

• GDGs



Problems with MDGs

• Not focused on Sustainable GlobalManagement

• Exclude Rich Countries

• Weak Accountability

• Top Down

• Clunky for advocacy



Commitment to reduce hunger and hunger status?

HUNGER STATUS (GHI 2010)

COMMITMENT TO

REDUCE HUNGER

Low Moderate Serious Alarming Extremely

Alarming

Low Nepal Rwanda

Lesotho Mozambique

GuineaBissau

Zambia

Bangladesh

Medium Ghana Kenya India Burundi

China Nigeria

Senegal

High Brazil Malawi Ethiopia

Guatemala Tanzania

Gambia



Measuring the commitment to reduce hungerCountry Government

expenditure rankPolicies and

programmes rankHRCI

(1 is best)

Denmark 3 4 1Finland 6 9 2

Belgium 9 7 3 Ireland 5 11 3 Norway 2 15 5 France 11 6 5 United Kingdom 14 3 5 Australia 16 2 8

Netherlands 10 8 8 Spain 4 14 8 Germany 12 10 11 South Korea 23 1 12 Japan 8 17 13

Canada 13 13 14 Greece 21 5 14

Sweden 7 19 14 Italy 22 12 17 USA 18 18 18 Austria 20 16 18 Switzerland 15 22 20 New Zealand 17 20 20 Portugal 19 21 22

Source: IDS – at hrcindex.org



Japan’s current proposal for post-2015 framework



• Growth is Good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good



well being

• GDGs

• Beyond Aid/Charity



Sustainable GlobalManagement

MDG andPoverty

reduction

Donorcountry’s

nationalinterests

The Trinity of goals needs to be achieved



Solidarity Cooperation as

needed

Charity Go it alone

Low belief in interconnectedness

High belief in interconnectedness

High

altruism

Low

altruism



• Growth is Good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good



well being

• GDGs


• Problems & Solutions

everywhere



Solutions

from theSouth



Nirvana

• Theory of Change

What actually happens

•

Keep D-i-D• Explore portability

Snake oil salesman

Well, it works here!

Many ODA

& private sectorevaluations?

Low external validity

High external validity

High

internal

validity

Low

internal

validity

Finding Solutions



How to get at

What Actually

Happens?

Fix the brokenfeedback loop:

talk to people

who are

supposed to be

benefitting



• Growth is good



• MDGs


Solutions over here

• Growth is

sometimes good



well being

• GDGs


• Problems & Solutions

everywhere

Conclusion

Need to preparefor brave new

world in the

second sphere

while addressing

the first sphere—

no time to wait.

Preparation for

the second willalso help us

address the

problems of the

first sphere.



Arigatou gozaimasu!

Documents

Haddad Oecd Future of Development 2012