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Half Year Results for FY13. Momentum with financial performance, strategy delivery and brand development continues despite a significant increase in competition. Global margin deterioration in 1Q was strongly recovered in 2Q - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Half Year Results for FY13Momentum with financial performance, strategy delivery and brand development continues despite a significant increase in competition
Trading conditions have been bearish and strongly affected by slower global and local economic recovery
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
2Q 2012
3Q 2012
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NZRC ZSingapore Marker
Gross Refinery Margin (US$/bbl) Industry Volumes (million litres)
• Global margin deterioration in 1Q was strongly recovered in 2Q
• No clear trend for the future but declines back to long run averages most likely
• Data sourced from RNZ and IEA
•Crude prices range bound $90-125/bbl•Retail sales remain soft post recession•Commercial sales tracking GDP growth•Data sourced from LAFT returns
1Q 20
09
2Q 20
09
3Q 20
09
4Q 20
09
1Q 20
10
2Q 20
10
3Q 20
10
4Q 20
10
1Q 20
11
2Q 20
11
3Q 20
11
4Q 20
11
1Q 20
12
2Q 20
12
3Q 20
12 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Premium Regular Diesel Jet
Z’s competitive position declined in 1H albeit our actions were consistent with our goal to grow profits and returns
• For 1H FY13, YoY sales for the industry are -0.9% for petrol and +1.3% for diesel
• Slight volume growth when pump prices fell below $2/litre but eroded when this reduction reversed in July
• Final rebranding of sites and continuing store refits affecting petrol sales
• All volume data indexed back to January 2010 and sourced from LAFT returns
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 92 94 96 98
100 102 104
Z Industry (excl. Z)
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-1295
100
105
110
115
120
Z Industry (excl. Z)
Petrol Volumes - all channels
Diesel Volumes - all channels
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
2Q 2012
3Q 2012
20
40
60
80
100
120
Fuel Only Shop Only Fuel & Shop
Average Daily Customer Count (000’s)
Whilst sales volumes have declined, these are more than offset by unit margin growth despite the volatile markets
2005-2009
average
FY 2011 FY2012 1H FY2013
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Refining Marketing
Total Volumes for all Products
(ml per half year)
Gross Margins excluding Store
($m per half year)
2005-09 average
FY2011 FY2012 1H FY2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GRM less processing fee & coastal distributionOther supplyMarketingFuels cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - petrol cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - diesel cpl (RHS)
Earnings were above the mid point of guidance based on a very strong 1Q which accounted for 68% of first half EBITDAF
Very poor refinery margins in 1Q were recovered through a very strong 2QSales volumes affected by increased competitor pricing activity in retail and a conscious
decision to highgrade the commercial portfolio away from loss making and marginal accounts (after allowing for integrated value and balance sheet resources)
Operating costs higher from increased marketing programs to mitigate competitor activity and ongoing costs from a non core asset which was assumed for sale in 1Q
Capex spend tracking to budget with benefits yet to flow to earnings
Key Variables First Half ActualPrevious
Guidance for FY13
Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.39 $7.00RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 953 1,880Sales Volume (ml) 1,248 2,600Operating Costs* $134.3m $260-270mOperating EBITDAF (Current Cost)* $96.8m $185-200mCapex $38.9m $70-90m
* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices
Double digit Operating EBITDAF (CC) growth despite slower economic recovery and increasing price competition
Operating costs* (134.3) (126.4) -6%Operating EBITDAF (Current Cost)* 96.8 82.8 17%Cost Of Sales Adjustment (42.5) (12.4) -243%Associate Earnings 3.6 6.1 -41%EBITDAF (Historic Cost) 57.9 76.5 -24%
Interest (Other) (22.9) (20.8) -10%Interest (Shareholder) (13.5) (13.9) 3%Depreciation and Amortisation (20.7) (16.3) -27%Hedge revaluations & other 4.4 6.6 33%Tax (1.3) (9.1) 86%Asset revaluations (1.6) (0.1) -1500%Net Surplus (per Statutory Accounts) 2.3 22.9 -90%Comprehensive income from associates (0.2) - Total comprehensive income 2.1 22.9 -91%
* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices.
There has been a material cost of sales adjustment between current cost and historical cost earnings
• Historical cost (as required by IFRS) calculates cost on a first in, first out basis. So historic cost earnings are subject to fluctuations in the value of the stock held on the balance sheet due to changes in the price of oil and exchange rates.
• To protect margins, purchases are hedged to match equivalent sales which are priced on a current cost basis, i.e. costs are aligned to the revenue we receive from customers.
• Management and capital providers focus on current cost earnings as these reflect the underlying business model.
• Current cost is calculated by revaluing all stock to its current value. The difference between historic cost and current cost is called the cost of sales adjustment (COSA).
• Over time historic cost and current cost measures should deliver similar results but there will be differences in any one accounting period.
• Current cost is a non-IFRS number.
1-O
ct-1
01-
Nov-
101-
Dec-
101-
Jan-
111-
Feb-
111-
Mar
-11
1-Ap
r-11
1-M
ay-1
11-
Jun-
111-
Jul-1
11-
Aug-
111-
Sep-
111-
Oct
-11
1-No
v-11
1-De
c-11
1-Ja
n-12
1-Fe
b-12
1-M
ar-1
21-
Apr-
121-
May
-12
1-Ju
n-12
1-Ju
l-12
1-Au
g-12
1-Se
p-12
80
100
120
140
160Dubai Crude**
NZD 2H10 Max2H10 Min FY12 MaxFY12 Min 1H13 Max
NZD/bbl
* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices.** We have used Dubai pricing as an indicator crude
$m 1H FY13 FY12 FY11Operating EBITDAF (CC)* 96.8 172.0 157.0 Cost of Sales Adjustment (42.5) 30.0 62.0 Associate Earnings 3.6 4.0 10.0 EBITDAF (Historic Cost) 57.9 206.0 229.0
Oil Price (NZD) - Low ** $113/bbl $119/bbl $99/bblOil Price (NZD) - High** $148/bbl $152/bbl $153/bbl
Impact on Infratil’s Results
Aotea Energy Equity Earnings ($m) 1H FY13 1H FY12
AEHL net surplus attributable to owners of the company (per statutory accounts) 2.3 22.9
Infratil's share (50%) 1.1 11.4 Shareholder loan interest 4.2 4.3 Shareholder RPS interest 2.6 2.6 Share of AEHL's earnings attributable to Infratil 7.9 18.3
• AEHL’s earnings attributable to Infratil are included within Infratil’s share of earnings and income of associate companies after tax. This is included within Infratil’s total income.
• Ordinary dividends paid by AEHL to Infratil are included within the carrying value of AEHL on Infratil’s balance sheet within the investments in associates.
Progress on track for the full year
• Retail and truckstop POS upgrade• 5 new sites, 2 rebuilds and 13 car washes• FlyBuys offer development• Commercial segmentation and offer
development postponed from 1H• Preliminary engineering and consenting for
$40m of new tankage at Lyttelton and MTM• Further 9 secondary sites being marketed
At risk for the full year Crude supply and refining projects Capital recovery charges
Delivered as expected in 1H Product procurement moved to north
Asian refineries saving $5m per annum Rebranding completed on budget 72 of 100 stores already refitted with
revenues +5.4% YoY Loss earning commercial accounts
(progressively) repriced or removed from portfolio
Scheduling system saving $1m per annum
ERP upgraded plus new chart of accounts
Third bond issue maturing 2019 $82m (net) from sale and leaseback of
44 secondary sites (7.55% yield) settling 31 March 2013, expecting $27m gain on sale
FY13 is the second year of a three year program of Strategy projects that grow underlying earnings $36m by end FY15
The Brand is growing into its potential and continued favorable results will steadily turn into increased loyalty and profits
24%
50%
58%
61%
9%
Spread to sector average
Base: All respondents Apr n=1,137.
+20
+8
+15
+8
Relevance(no barriers to use)
+26
Relevance(no barriers to use)
Availability(conveniently located)
Availability(conveniently located)
41%
64%
75%
79%
21%
Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)
Consideration(would strongly consider using)
Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)
Consideration(would strongly consider using)
Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5 visits)
Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5 visits)
Spread to sector average
+22
+1
+9
+10
+9
26%
50%
60%
63%
10%
As at September 2012
As at March 2012
Base: All respondents Sept -12 n=1,240.
We are forecasting recent trading conditions to continue with earnings upside from strategy projects
Refinery margins assumed to revert from 2Q highs to long run averageVolume loss will not be recovered as focus is on optimising retail margins, growing non
fuel income and highgrading the commercial portfolio – while not eroding integrated value
Upside in an environment of crude prices less than $100/bbl and Kiwi dollar at ~0.78
Key VariablesFY13 Updated
GuidanceFY13 Previous
GuidanceFY 2012
Average crude price (USD/bbl) $110 $120 $109Average crude price (NZD/bbl) $137 $156 $137Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.00 $7.00 $6.70RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,900 1,880 1,930Sales Volume (ml) 2,450 2,600 2,647Operating Costs $280 - 290m $260 - 270m $250mOperating EBITDAF (Current Cost) $185 - 200m $185 - 200m $172mCapex $80 - 90m $70 - 90m $74m
Appendices
Reconciliations
Reconciliation from operating costs to total operating expenditure (per the statutory accounts) $mOperating costs 134.3 Add depreciation and amortisation 20.5 Add impairments 0.2 Add gains / losses on sales on assets 1.6 Total operating expenditure (statutory accounts) 156.5
Reconciliation from operating EBITDAF (CC) to operating surplus (per the statutory accounts) $mOperating EBITDAF (CC) 96.8Less depreciation and amortisation (20.5)Less impairments (0.2)Less asset revaluations (1.6)Less unrealised gains/losses (8.8)Less cost of sales adjustment (42.5)Add share of earnings of Associate Companies 3.6Operating surplus before financing derivatives and realisations (statutory accounts) 26.8
Reconciliation from fuels gross margin & other income to gross profit (per the statutory accounts) $mFuels Gross Margin 207.1 Other income 24.0 Income 231.1 Less cost of sales adjustment (42.5)Less unrealised gains / losses (8.8)Gross profit (statutory accounts) 179.8