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Half Year Results for FY13 Momentum with financial performance, strategy delivery and brand development continues despite a significant increase in competition

Half Year Results for FY13

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Half Year Results for FY13. Momentum with financial performance, strategy delivery and brand development continues despite a significant increase in competition. Global margin deterioration in 1Q was strongly recovered in 2Q - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Half Year Results for FY13

Half Year Results for FY13Momentum with financial performance, strategy delivery and brand development continues despite a significant increase in competition

Page 2: Half Year Results for FY13

Trading conditions have been bearish and strongly affected by slower global and local economic recovery

1Q 2009

2Q 2009

3Q 2009

4Q 2009

1Q 2010

2Q 2010

3Q 2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

4Q 2011

1Q 2012

2Q 2012

3Q 2012

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NZRC ZSingapore Marker

Gross Refinery Margin (US$/bbl) Industry Volumes (million litres)

• Global margin deterioration in 1Q was strongly recovered in 2Q

• No clear trend for the future but declines back to long run averages most likely

• Data sourced from RNZ and IEA

•Crude prices range bound $90-125/bbl•Retail sales remain soft post recession•Commercial sales tracking GDP growth•Data sourced from LAFT returns

1Q 20

09

2Q 20

09

3Q 20

09

4Q 20

09

1Q 20

10

2Q 20

10

3Q 20

10

4Q 20

10

1Q 20

11

2Q 20

11

3Q 20

11

4Q 20

11

1Q 20

12

2Q 20

12

3Q 20

12 100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Premium Regular Diesel Jet

Page 3: Half Year Results for FY13

Z’s competitive position declined in 1H albeit our actions were consistent with our goal to grow profits and returns

• For 1H FY13, YoY sales for the industry are -0.9% for petrol and +1.3% for diesel

• Slight volume growth when pump prices fell below $2/litre but eroded when this reduction reversed in July

• Final rebranding of sites and continuing store refits affecting petrol sales

• All volume data indexed back to January 2010 and sourced from LAFT returns

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 92 94 96 98

100 102 104

Z Industry (excl. Z)

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-1295

100

105

110

115

120

Z Industry (excl. Z)

Petrol Volumes - all channels

Diesel Volumes - all channels

1Q 2009

2Q 2009

3Q 2009

4Q 2009

1Q2010

2Q2010

3Q2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

4Q 2011

1Q 2012

2Q 2012

3Q 2012

20

40

60

80

100

120

Fuel Only Shop Only Fuel & Shop

Average Daily Customer Count (000’s)

Page 4: Half Year Results for FY13

Whilst sales volumes have declined, these are more than offset by unit margin growth despite the volatile markets

2005-2009

average

FY 2011 FY2012 1H FY2013

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Refining Marketing

Total Volumes for all Products

(ml per half year)

Gross Margins excluding Store

($m per half year)

2005-09 average

FY2011 FY2012 1H FY2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

GRM less processing fee & coastal distributionOther supplyMarketingFuels cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - petrol cpl (RHS)MED importer margin - diesel cpl (RHS)

Page 5: Half Year Results for FY13

Earnings were above the mid point of guidance based on a very strong 1Q which accounted for 68% of first half EBITDAF

Very poor refinery margins in 1Q were recovered through a very strong 2QSales volumes affected by increased competitor pricing activity in retail and a conscious

decision to highgrade the commercial portfolio away from loss making and marginal accounts (after allowing for integrated value and balance sheet resources)

Operating costs higher from increased marketing programs to mitigate competitor activity and ongoing costs from a non core asset which was assumed for sale in 1Q

Capex spend tracking to budget with benefits yet to flow to earnings

Key Variables First Half ActualPrevious

Guidance for FY13

Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.39 $7.00RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 953 1,880Sales Volume (ml) 1,248 2,600Operating Costs* $134.3m $260-270mOperating EBITDAF (Current Cost)* $96.8m $185-200mCapex $38.9m $70-90m

* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices

Page 6: Half Year Results for FY13

Double digit Operating EBITDAF (CC) growth despite slower economic recovery and increasing price competition

Operating costs* (134.3) (126.4) -6%Operating EBITDAF (Current Cost)* 96.8 82.8 17%Cost Of Sales Adjustment (42.5) (12.4) -243%Associate Earnings 3.6 6.1 -41%EBITDAF (Historic Cost) 57.9 76.5 -24%

Interest (Other) (22.9) (20.8) -10%Interest (Shareholder) (13.5) (13.9) 3%Depreciation and Amortisation (20.7) (16.3) -27%Hedge revaluations & other 4.4 6.6 33%Tax (1.3) (9.1) 86%Asset revaluations (1.6) (0.1) -1500%Net Surplus (per Statutory Accounts) 2.3 22.9 -90%Comprehensive income from associates (0.2) - Total comprehensive income 2.1 22.9 -91%

* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices.

Page 7: Half Year Results for FY13

There has been a material cost of sales adjustment between current cost and historical cost earnings

• Historical cost (as required by IFRS) calculates cost on a first in, first out basis. So historic cost earnings are subject to fluctuations in the value of the stock held on the balance sheet due to changes in the price of oil and exchange rates.

• To protect margins, purchases are hedged to match equivalent sales which are priced on a current cost basis, i.e. costs are aligned to the revenue we receive from customers.

• Management and capital providers focus on current cost earnings as these reflect the underlying business model.

• Current cost is calculated by revaluing all stock to its current value. The difference between historic cost and current cost is called the cost of sales adjustment (COSA).

• Over time historic cost and current cost measures should deliver similar results but there will be differences in any one accounting period.

• Current cost is a non-IFRS number.

1-O

ct-1

01-

Nov-

101-

Dec-

101-

Jan-

111-

Feb-

111-

Mar

-11

1-Ap

r-11

1-M

ay-1

11-

Jun-

111-

Jul-1

11-

Aug-

111-

Sep-

111-

Oct

-11

1-No

v-11

1-De

c-11

1-Ja

n-12

1-Fe

b-12

1-M

ar-1

21-

Apr-

121-

May

-12

1-Ju

n-12

1-Ju

l-12

1-Au

g-12

1-Se

p-12

80

100

120

140

160Dubai Crude**

NZD 2H10 Max2H10 Min FY12 MaxFY12 Min 1H13 Max

NZD/bbl

* A reconciliation between these numbers and the Statutory accounts is provided in the appendices.** We have used Dubai pricing as an indicator crude

$m 1H FY13 FY12 FY11Operating EBITDAF (CC)* 96.8 172.0 157.0 Cost of Sales Adjustment (42.5) 30.0 62.0 Associate Earnings 3.6 4.0 10.0 EBITDAF (Historic Cost) 57.9 206.0 229.0

Oil Price (NZD) - Low ** $113/bbl $119/bbl $99/bblOil Price (NZD) - High** $148/bbl $152/bbl $153/bbl

Page 8: Half Year Results for FY13

Impact on Infratil’s Results

Aotea Energy Equity Earnings ($m) 1H FY13 1H FY12

AEHL net surplus attributable to owners of the company (per statutory accounts) 2.3 22.9

Infratil's share (50%) 1.1 11.4 Shareholder loan interest 4.2 4.3 Shareholder RPS interest 2.6 2.6 Share of AEHL's earnings attributable to Infratil 7.9 18.3

• AEHL’s earnings attributable to Infratil are included within Infratil’s share of earnings and income of associate companies after tax. This is included within Infratil’s total income.

• Ordinary dividends paid by AEHL to Infratil are included within the carrying value of AEHL on Infratil’s balance sheet within the investments in associates.

Page 9: Half Year Results for FY13

Progress on track for the full year

• Retail and truckstop POS upgrade• 5 new sites, 2 rebuilds and 13 car washes• FlyBuys offer development• Commercial segmentation and offer

development postponed from 1H• Preliminary engineering and consenting for

$40m of new tankage at Lyttelton and MTM• Further 9 secondary sites being marketed

At risk for the full year Crude supply and refining projects Capital recovery charges

Delivered as expected in 1H Product procurement moved to north

Asian refineries saving $5m per annum Rebranding completed on budget 72 of 100 stores already refitted with

revenues +5.4% YoY Loss earning commercial accounts

(progressively) repriced or removed from portfolio

Scheduling system saving $1m per annum

ERP upgraded plus new chart of accounts

Third bond issue maturing 2019 $82m (net) from sale and leaseback of

44 secondary sites (7.55% yield) settling 31 March 2013, expecting $27m gain on sale

FY13 is the second year of a three year program of Strategy projects that grow underlying earnings $36m by end FY15

Page 10: Half Year Results for FY13

The Brand is growing into its potential and continued favorable results will steadily turn into increased loyalty and profits

24%

50%

58%

61%

9%

Spread to sector average

Base: All respondents Apr n=1,137.

+20

+8

+15

+8

Relevance(no barriers to use)

+26

Relevance(no barriers to use)

Availability(conveniently located)

Availability(conveniently located)

41%

64%

75%

79%

21%

Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)

Consideration(would strongly consider using)

Unprompted awareness(spontaneous mention)

Consideration(would strongly consider using)

Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5 visits)

Behavioural preferrer(used in at least 3 of last 5 visits)

Spread to sector average

+22

+1

+9

+10

+9

26%

50%

60%

63%

10%

As at September 2012

As at March 2012

Base: All respondents Sept -12 n=1,240.

Page 11: Half Year Results for FY13

We are forecasting recent trading conditions to continue with earnings upside from strategy projects

Refinery margins assumed to revert from 2Q highs to long run averageVolume loss will not be recovered as focus is on optimising retail margins, growing non

fuel income and highgrading the commercial portfolio – while not eroding integrated value

Upside in an environment of crude prices less than $100/bbl and Kiwi dollar at ~0.78

Key VariablesFY13 Updated

GuidanceFY13 Previous

GuidanceFY 2012

Average crude price (USD/bbl) $110 $120 $109Average crude price (NZD/bbl) $137 $156 $137Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.00 $7.00 $6.70RNZ Processing Volume (ml) 1,900 1,880 1,930Sales Volume (ml) 2,450 2,600 2,647Operating Costs $280 - 290m $260 - 270m $250mOperating EBITDAF (Current Cost) $185 - 200m $185 - 200m $172mCapex $80 - 90m $70 - 90m $74m

Page 12: Half Year Results for FY13

Appendices

Page 13: Half Year Results for FY13

Reconciliations

Reconciliation from operating costs to total operating expenditure (per the statutory accounts) $mOperating costs 134.3 Add depreciation and amortisation 20.5 Add impairments 0.2 Add gains / losses on sales on assets 1.6 Total operating expenditure (statutory accounts) 156.5

Reconciliation from operating EBITDAF (CC) to operating surplus (per the statutory accounts) $mOperating EBITDAF (CC) 96.8Less depreciation and amortisation (20.5)Less impairments (0.2)Less asset revaluations (1.6)Less unrealised gains/losses (8.8)Less cost of sales adjustment (42.5)Add share of earnings of Associate Companies 3.6Operating surplus before financing derivatives and realisations (statutory accounts) 26.8

Reconciliation from fuels gross margin & other income to gross profit (per the statutory accounts) $mFuels Gross Margin 207.1 Other income 24.0 Income 231.1 Less cost of sales adjustment (42.5)Less unrealised gains / losses (8.8)Gross profit (statutory accounts) 179.8