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Analysis of profit warningsIssued by UK quoted companies

Q3 2013

Summer ends on profit warning highUK quoted companies issued 56 profit warnings in the third quarter of 2013, down from 68 in the same period of 2012. However, this low headline number hides a sting in the tail. UK plc started Q3 believing that a strong end to 2013 would counteract a weak start, but finished by issuing the highest level of September profit warnings since 2008. Size divided fortunes, as it has throughout 2013, with smaller companies in particular feeling an early autumn chill.

Overall, the economic outlook is still improving, but earnings expectations dipped in late summer. US fiscal battles, taper concerns and emerging market volatility all provided reminders that we’re a long way from economic, financial or monetary normality and the road back won’t be smooth. The Eurozone recovery faces new tests, including an Asset Quality Review of its largest banks. Meanwhile, the UK recovery is still based upon consumers, who are providing the impetus for growth, but are yet to feel the benefit.

Increasingly optimistic business surveys imply that wages and investment will provide the UK recovery with greater breadth and stability in 2014. However, for now, companies still appear discouraged from matching optimism with investment. Removing this trepidation remains the key to establishing a more stable and sustainable recovery.

Profit warning numbers, Q1 2007–Q3 2013

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2008 total:449

2009 total:282

2010 total:196

2011 total:278

2012 total:287

2009: 282

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“ UK plc started Q3 believing that a strong end to 2013 would counteract a weak start, but finished by issuing the highest level of September profit warnings since 2008.”

Profit warning highlights

► UK quoted companies issued 56 profit warnings in Q3 2013, 12 fewer warnings than the same period in 2012, but two more than the previous quarter.

► The third quarter started as the second ended, with many companies issuing below-par interim results, but sticking to their full-year forecasts due to a more positive economic outlook and firmer demand.

► This trend continued until late summer, when a more unsettled global backdrop appears to have shaken confidence. This increased uncertainty led UK quoted companies to issue the highest number of profit warnings in the month of September since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

► Company size divided fortunes in Q3, as it has throughout 2013. Profit warnings from companies with a turnover under £200m have risen in the first three quarters of 2013 compared to the same period of 2012. This is in sharp contrast to a 30% fall in profit warnings from larger companies.

► Linked to this turnover divide, warnings from AIM companies rose to 37 in Q3 2013, the highest quarterly number since 2011. However, on the Main Market, the lowest percentage of companies issued profit warnings for more than three years.

► A rise in activity across most parts of the UK economy saw profit warnings fall in almost all FTSE sectors. Those with the highest number of profit warnings in Q3 2013 were FTSE Support Services (13), FTSE General Financial (6), FTSE Software & Computer Services (5) and Media (5).

► The steep rise in FTSE Support Services profit warnings appears incongruous with positive surveys. However, the sector is exposed to discretionary spending patterns of industries and governments. Contract loss and price pressures can spark individual profit warnings, even if volumes are improving overall.

► There were three profit warnings from FTSE Food Producers in Q3 2013, the highest number since 2011. However, considering the combination of pressures the sector has handled this year, from the horsemeat scandal to tough markets in Europe and a slowdown in emerging markets, 15% of the sector warning in the last 12 months is arguably a strong performance.

► For only the second time since 1999, the FTSE General Retailers sector didn’t issue a profit warning. The recent rise in consumer spending and hopes for a merry Christmas gave retailers reason to remain optimistic, although the festive season normally shakes out winners and losers.

► The median share price fall on the day of warning was virtually unchanged at 11.2%. However, this figure fluctuated significantly across the quarter — from 12.7% in July to 8% in September — appearing to follow equity markets reaction to changes in expectations for US monetary policy.

Profit warnings by sector, Q3 2013

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“ The rise in activity across most parts of the UK economy saw profit warnings fall in almost all FTSE sectors.”

2 | Analysis of profit warnings Q3 2013

Snap back to realityThe third quarter carried on where the second left off. Business and consumer confidence improved, the sun shone, the Eurozone drama remained in intermission and business surveys showed expansion across the UK economy. However, summer also brought ample reminders of how reliant both mature and emerging economies are on monetary abnormality, whilst UK economic momentum also showed signs of slowing towards the end of the period. These concerns tested earnings forecasts at the end of the third quarter, whilst US fiscal battles provided a worrying backdrop to the start of the fourth. We’ve come a long way, but it’s important not to run ahead and forget how far there is to go.

UK recovery — all aboard?

Improving outlook in 2013 — EY ITEM Club Forecast

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The UK economy is recovering much faster than expected, highlighted by significant recent upgrades in GDP forecasts. The IMF and EY ITEM Club both now predict growth of 1.4% in 2013, compared with spring forecasts of 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. The upgrades follow a clutch of positive industry surveys that show the UK recovery gaining breadth, as well as strength. Consumers and the service sector are still the main drivers, but construction is also on-board. The government’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme has directly boosted house builders and the lift in activity has benefited the industry as a whole by raising volumes in contracting and subcontracting. For the first quarter since 2009, companies in FTSE Construction & Materials didn’t issue a profit warning, reflecting this change in fortunes. Manufacturing activity fluctuated more, with signs of a mid-quarter slowdown, but the overall effect is likely to be positive. Profit warnings from manufacturing sectors also stayed low in Q3, with just two apiece from FTSE industrial Engineering and FTSE Electronics & Electrical Component companies. It was a more contrary period for FTSE Support Services, where the number of profit warnings jumped back up to 13, despite rising levels of activity in services surveys. The sector’s exposures to a wide variety of discretionary spending — from miners to governments — means rising volumes won’t necessarily equate to fewer profit warnings. Contract delays

and pricing pressures can continue to trigger profit warnings as companies chase harder for contracts. The strong service sector growth recorded in September’s Markit/CIPS PMI survey also didn’t extend to consumer-facing services. The FTSE Travel & Leisure sector continues to feel structural and spending pressures, especially in gambling and air travel.

Therefore, it is an improving picture, but not uniformly so and impetus waned somewhat by the end of the quarter. The current rise in consumer spending is based on greater levels of employment and increasing confidence. This confidence has encouraged consumers to spend their savings and much of the £10 billion issued so far in PPI repayments, a significant figure in the context of an annual retail spend of £311 billion in 2012. Profit warnings from retailers remain low, with no warnings from FTSE General Retailers in the third quarter. But, without a rise in real incomes, it’s tough to create a sustained recovery in consumer spending. The sun brought consumers out in July, but sales growth dipped in August and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) survey showed the weakest reading in the last 12 months in September, excluding Easter fluctuations. The Bank of England has pledged to keep interest rates low until around 2016 and wages should rise faster in 2014, closing the gap on inflation and steading the consumer ship. Business investment remains the key to providing this increase in employment and wages and this should finally start to rise next year, according to the EY ITEM Club. However, it will start from a low base after falling again during Q2 2013, despite UK companies displaying increasing optimism. Removing the last layer of trepidation is the next vital step towards creating a stronger, more balanced recovery.

Rebalancing painsRising levels of growth in the US, UK and the Eurozone stood in sharp contrast to downgrades to emerging market (EM) forecasts this summer. This shift in dynamics means mature economies will contribute more to global economic growth than EM in 2013-4. Many EM are still growing relatively quickly, but GDP levels and forecasts have been falling since 2011. The fall is due to a variety of growing pains, primarily caused by mounting economic imbalances and their difficult cures. This summer brought further complication and unwelcome attention after the US Federal reserve signalled it was ready to start “tapering” its quantitative easing (QE) programme. QE has fuelled much of the capital flow into emerging markets in recent years, as well as keeping borrowing rates low. Therefore, the impact of the announcement on capital, currency and confidence levels was dramatic, especially for countries with large current account deficits, such as Turkey and India. The Indian rupee lost 20% of its value against major currencies in August alone. The decision in September by the

Economic and sector overviewEconomic and sector overview

“ The UK economy is recovering much faster than expected, highlighted by significant upgrades in GDP forecasts.”

3Analysis of profit warnings Q3 2013 |

The IMF now expects global growth in the medium term of around 3%, below the long-term average of 4%. %. However, this figure depends on a stable Eurozone and an end to constant US fiscal disputes. The two sides have reached a temporary resolution this

US Federal Reserve to defer tapering provided brief respite, but monetary tightening is inevitable. In response to these pressures, the IMF dropped its EM GDP forecasts again at the end of the summer to 4.5% this year and 5.1% in 2014, compared with 7.5% in 2010.

Economic and sector overview (continued)

Warnings as a percentage of FTSE sector, Q3 2013

Number of companies warning

Number of companies in FTSE sector

% of companies warning




Aerospace & Defence 1 11 9% Mobile Telecommunications 2 9 22%

Alternative Energy 1 14 7% Nonlife Insurance 2 14 14%Electronic & Electrical Equipment 2 38 5% Oil & Gas Producers 1 89 1%Food & Drug Retailers 1 11 9% Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1 12 8%Food Producers 3 26 12% Personal Goods 1 20 5%General Financial 6 131 5% Software & Computer Services 5 102 5%General Industrials 1 13 8% Support Services 12 155 8%Household Goods 2 27 7% Technology Hardware & Equipment 3 29 10%Industrial Engineering 2 38 5% Travel & Leisure 2 59 3%Leisure Goods 1 12 8%Media 5 77 6% Total 54

Are smaller companies on-board?If profit warnings are any indication, the recovery is leaving one critical group of companies behind. Smaller companies — those with a turnover under £200 million — have issued more profit warnings in the first three quarters of 2013 than the same period in 2012. This compares with a 34% fall in profit warnings from companies in the £201 million to £1 billion turnover band. Figures from the AIM market tell a similar story – unsurprisingly since almost all AIM companies warning in 2013 had a turnover under £200 million. The percentage of Main Market companies warning has dropped steadily, from 9.1% in Q4 2012 to 3.4% in Q3 2013, whilst the percentage of AIM companies warning started and ended the same period at 4.4%.

The fall in profit warnings isn’t evenly spread

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Smaller companies are inherently more vulnerable to profit warnings since they are more likely to find a hit to sales or change in pricing material to profit expectations. This doesn’t entirely explain why their fortunes are diverging now. Perhaps it’s also due to their relative stock market age. If we use AIM companies as a proxy, the difference in average listing date is 14 years – 2006 for AIM versus 1992 for Main Market companies, giving the latter more experience of recession, recovery and dealing with the investor and analyst communities. Smaller companies are also more likely to hit funding issues, which will make it more difficult to plan and make the best of the upturn. Whatever the reason, if the earnings of smaller companies are recovering less quickly than expected, they may be less able to drive economic and employment growth - and that has implications for the entire economy.

Profit warnings from AIM rise through 2013

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time, but the endless game of debt ceiling and budget ping-pong in the US is proving more damaging with every set. Even if both parties reach a long-term resolution to prevent this issue returning every few months, it will be difficult to lower US Treasury rates since markets continue to anticipate the tapering of monetary support. This will have a knock-on effect on global lending prices. Meanwhile, whilst most European economies are now growing and major banks no longer pose a systemic risk, much of the architecture that started and exacerbated the crisis remains, with little appetite for reform. Slovenia, Portugal and Greece still need further support and the Asset Quality Review (AQR) for 145 of the region’s largest banks has the potential to run over a number of years, stalling improvements in lending as banks focus on further restructuring and asset sales. The Eurozone crisis is smouldering, rather than extinguished.

The next stage These concerns over the sustainability of the pace of recovery, emerging market growth, tighter monetary policy and the threat of US default combined at the end of the third quarter to temper confidence, earnings expectations and ultimately demand. Consequently, a quarter that started full of optimism that a strong end to 2013 would counteract a weak start, finished with highest level of September profit warnings since 2008. There is also a sense that we’re moving onto the next stage of the recovery, where economic growth will be more vital to profits. In the last few years, companies have used a mixture of cost cutting and operational improvements to boost earnings. Now, with less fat to trim, businesses will need economic growth to drive profits and any doubts as to the path of that growth will quickly reflect in forecasts. According to Thomson Financial Datastream, analysts now predict European earnings per share growth of just 0.2% for 2013, against 9.9% at the start of the year.

The resolution of the US debt crisis should avert a further steep rise in profit warnings, but enough concerns remain to keep the level above the mid-year lows of around 15 warnings a month we saw in mid-2013. Volatility in mature and emerging markets, sparked by shifting expectations of monetary tightening this quarter, also signal that we’re moving onto the next stage in our capital journey – a stage that we’ve never charted before. The median fall in share price on the day of profit warning reflects this shift in expectations. Share prices dropped by 12.7% in July, falling to around 8% in September as ‘taper’ expectations dropped and the US Federal Reserve deferred the start of monetary tightening. However, there is every indication that this process will be underway in 2014. Market rates also suggest that UK interest rate rises may also be necessary in 2015, before the Bank of England would ideally like. This process of normalisation from such an abnormal capital position hasn’t been tried before and it will at the very least change the cost and availability of capital. In Europe, this process will be concurrent with the Asset Quality Review (AQR), further opening the door to alternative funds and distressed investors.

Companies will need to think carefully about how they best allocate capital during this unsettled period. Portfolio adjustment remains high on many company’s agenda. Increasingly companies are thinking about acquisitions, as well as divesting non-core assets, as they consider how to make the most of recovery and adjust to structural changes in their markets.

Warnings as a percentage of FTSE sector, Q3 2013







Aerospace & Defence 1 11 9% Mobile Telecommunications 2 9 22%

Alternative Energy 1 14 7% Nonlife Insurance 2 14 14%Electronic & Electrical Equipment 2 38 5% Oil & Gas Producers 1 89 1%Food & Drug Retailers 1 11 9% Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1 12 8%Food Producers 3 26 12% Personal Goods 1 20 5%General Financial 6 131 5% Software & Computer Services 5 102 5%General Industrials 1 13 8% Support Services 12 155 8%Household Goods 2 27 7% Technology Hardware & Equipment 3 29 10%Industrial Engineering 2 38 5% Travel & Leisure 2 59 3%Leisure Goods 1 12 8%Media 5 77 6% Total 54

“ There is also a sense that we’re moving onto the next stage of the recovery, where economic growth will be more vital to profits.”


FTSE General RetailersA quarter has passed without a profit warning from companies in the FTSE General Retailers index for only the second time since 1999. Retailers normally issue a low number of profit warnings during the summer. Most have sales patterns dominated by the ‘golden’ fourth quarter, giving them an opportunity to offset a mid-year shortfall. However, this absence of profit warnings is obviously an exceptional event and underlines the recent strong rise in confidence and consumers’ willingness to spend, despite the continuing pressure on disposable incomes. Although, this income-sales conundrum raises questions about the durability of the retail upturn and a rising tide won’t necessarily raise every retail ship. Sector polarisation is often at its sharpest during the festive season, when the strongest retailers pick up the majority of sales, leaving the weak behind.

Retailers bask in rising summer salesThe third quarter brought a steady stream of good news for retailers. The housing market moved up another gear, the Bank of England told consumers that it didn’t expect to raise interest rates before 2016 and the good weather added to the general feel-good factor. Hot weather doesn’t suit everyone. Home improvement and homeware sales fell as consumers shunned out of town destinations in the heat. However, retail sales generally receive an overall lift when the weather follows traditional seasonal patterns and sales rose across the quarter. Last year’s ‘summer of sport’ complicates year-on-year comparisons, but according to the BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July brought the best performance in seven years, whilst the latest GfK NOP index showed consumer confidence at its highest level since before the financial crisis.

The earlier than expected start to stage two of the ‘help to buy’ scheme provided another lift to retailers during the quarter. It will take some time for the scheme to take effect and for buyers to recover financially from moving expenses before they hit the shops - perhaps even denting sales for a while - but retailers should start to feel greater benefit from mid-2014. Adding existing housing stock, as well as new-builds, into the scheme will open additional opportunities for the DIY and ‘Do It For Me’ sectors, including kitchen and bathroom retailers.

A hint of autumn chill The third quarter certainly brought a better retail performance than we’ve seen for some time with hopes of more to come. However, there are still concerns about the durability of this retail revival while inflation continues to outstrip wage rises and disposable incomes are still under pressure. According to the latest Asda Income Tracker, discretionary income continued to fall in August, down to £159 a week from £161 in the same month a year before. Retail sales are still rising because employment is rising, which increases the total level of wages and provides consumers with the confidence to dip into their savings and continue spending. Low interest rates bolster this confidence and mortgage debt payments are currently at near-record lows as a proportion of household disposable income. Sources of non-wage income have also increased ahead of inflation — including £10 billion of PPI payments. However, savings are finite, most people rely on their wages and PPI payments should cease next year. Consumers are very aware of these constraints and that their basic economic situation isn’t improving. The component of consumer confidence where individuals assess the outlook for own finances has remained virtually static in 2013.

Focus on sectors

FTSE General Retailers profit warnings vs. total profit warnings

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Consequently, while surveys showed retail sales rising across the summer, major categories like clothing, homeware and electronics, struggled to sustain momentum from month to month. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor also showed sales growth flattening off somewhat in September. This volatility suggests consumers are spending more, but very selectively in response to the constraints on their income. Spend is still strongly related to need, which drove sales when the weather was hot and will delay sales of autumn and winter lines if the weather remains mild. Wage rises should start to pick up as the recovery progresses, but it may be 2018 before consumers start to feel better off. Until then, middle-income groups will feel the hardest squeeze — a serious problem for major retailers as they struggle to hold onto an increasingly competitive middle ground.

The pace of the recovery will also be constrained by households lowering their debt burden — currently down from 170% of annual income to a less alarming, but still high, level of 140%. The EY ITEM Club expect this to limit consumer spending growth to 1.6% in 2013, 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% a year from 2015-17, a significant improvement on prior years, but the sector won’t catch up with the 3.7% annual growth it averaged for the decade prior to the financial crisis.

The rising tide of sales won’t lift every retailer.Rising levels of sales never benefit retailers equally and rising volumes do not necessarily equate to rising profits. Margins have actually declined faster in the last two years than during the crisis due to the pressure to discount prices and rising operating costs. Increasing online sales are part of this additional cost burden for high street retailers, who are currently absorbing all or part of consumer’s delivery costs, in addition to the fixed costs associated

with running a network of stores. The move from many online providers onto the high street has proven the importance of a physical presence, but optimising the number and location of stores remains a high priority for retailers looking to keep costs down.

In the midst of rapid industry change, retail priorities remain the same: a focus on product, operational efficiency, great customer service, and optimum stock management. The latter is always a major challenge in the run up to Christmas and a strong indicator of overall performance. It’s vital to maintain communication with suppliers and to manage the delivery expectations of consumers throughout the festive season. Conditions are looking more favourable than they have for some time for the all-important ‘golden quarter’ but it is only by operating at their full potential that retailers’ will be able to benefit.

FTSE Food ProducersCompanies in the UK FTSE Food Producer sector issued three profit warnings in the third quarter of 2013, the highest quarterly total since the end of 2011. Tough end-markets and the fallout from the horsemeat scandal have made 2013 a demanding year, with easing commodity prices providing only limited relief. In this context, five profit warnings in the year-to-date – from 15% of the UK quoted sector – is arguably a display of resilience. However, there are further tests ahead for food producers as they navigate an increasingly competitive and complex environment.

FTSE Food Producers profit warnings vs. total profit warnings

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“ In the midst of rapid industry change, most priorities remain the same: a focus on product, operational efficiency, great service, and optimum stock management.”


A sector under scrutinyFrom the adulteration of beef with horsemeat to product mislabelling, food provenance and safety has never been far from UK headlines in 2013. Actual incidents of fraud and contamination are relatively rare. Extensive testing found 0.4% of UK beef products contained more than 1% horsemeat - 10 times less than the European average. However, the presence of horsemeat in the UK food chain profoundly shook consumers’ trust and the issue of provenance continues to resonate. IGD ShopperVista research released in October 2013 showed that 56% of shoppers – up from 34% in 2011 – want to know more about the origin of their food.

This horsemeat-inspired scrutiny has proven to be a mixed blessing for the food sector. There have been casualties at the bottom of the food supply chain, where companies were directly involved in horsemeat adulteration. However, most food producers and retailers have avoided significant damage by responding strongly to consumer concerns. This includes shortening their supply chains, moving to more UK sourcing – especially in meat - and emphasising traceability and accountability in an attempt to restore trust. This has opened up opportunities for those producers who can meet retailers’ requirements for transparency across the supply chain. Those who avoided any issues with their products have also seen their reputations enhanced. However, increased supply chain scrutiny and management comes at a cost. The price of UK- sourced meat is also rising as the industry struggles to meet increased demand.

This isn’t a cost that retailers can easily pass onto consumers. After years of careful budgeting, UK shoppers are starting to loosen their purse strings a little. However, value remains a high priority and food producers are largely absorbing rising production costs to the detriment of already stretched margins. Research from the Grocer shows revenues increasing by 6%, but operating margins falling a further 0.5% from 5.7% to 5.2% - their lowest level in 20 years. Branded groups are one of the worst hit groups as they try to defend territory against private label and discounted products. Smaller niche players are faring better overall, but the UK and other mature markets are a highly competitive arena, where growth comes primarily from value and pricing.

Tougher ‘growth’ marketsHence, the obvious attraction of emerging markets (EM), where rapidly rising levels of income per capita have provided the opportunity to drive volume growth and offset sluggish, price-driven mature markets. A rising middle class, especially amongst the BRIC nations, also offers the prospect not only of increased volumes, but also of developing more complex product ranges with different price points. However, this stellar growth couldn’t last forever. Emerging economies are now slowing and their currencies weakening as they struggle to rebalance their economies, whilst capital flows stall and reverse in anticipation of tighter US monetary policy. EM still form a

vital part of food companies’ long-term growth strategy and are still expanding at a faster rate than mature markets. However, growth will be slower than companies enjoyed previously and lower than expected at the start of 2013, when the IMF predicted EM would lead the global economic recovery.

Slower, less predictable growth, combined with currency volatility and weakness will create significant challenges in the short to medium term. Currency weakness has the dual effect of squeezing consumer incomes as price of imports rises and dilutes profits for foreign companies as they translate currency. Volatility in growth and currency levels also creates a pressing problem for quoted companies, who will find it harder to satisfy investors seeking transparency and predictability.

Falling prices offer respiteFalling prices across most major food categories represents the biggest saving grace for food companies in these more testing times. Rising prices are the most common cause of profit warnings for FTSE Food Producers and peaks in commodity prices caused spikes in profit warnings in 2008-9 and 2011. Price increases are behind most of the profit warnings so far in 2013; however these price rises are limited to a small range of products, primarily cocoa, milk powder and UK-sourced meat. Good harvests worldwide have placed downward pressure on the price of most other food commodities. Relatively flat fuel, energy and plastic prices also provide a welcome benefit. Falling prices take some time to translate positively into gross margins, since many companies will hedge prices six to twelve months ahead. Nevertheless, it is a tailwind amongst a sea of headwinds and offers the prospect of respite in tough markets. Although, there is a slight flipside, since falling prices also give food producers reduced bargaining power in negotiations with retailers.

Optimise to seek growthIn response to cost pressures and weak economic growth, food companies have been focusing their efforts on innovation and improving efficiency. This includes closing excess capacity facilities and divesting non-core operations in Europe and the US to optimise their portfolio and focus on premium, higher margin products. They have been helped in this regard by increasing interest from Asia and from private equity companies, who have been actively searching for food businesses in mature markets. Food companies are also signalling that they are ready to make acquisitions, although suitable targets at the right price are hard to find. There is little rationale to buy within Europe at present, unless the business offers a compelling innovation or brand. However, acquisitions in growth markets involve more risk and values are still ‘frothy’. Companies are very conscious of the scars left by poor acquisitions and poor integration in the past and will be looking for greater value before making their move.

Focus on sectors (continued)


FTSE Sector Turnover band, £mn London Midlands/

East AngliaNorth West

South East

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Scotland and NI

Grand total

Aerospace & Defence under £200m 1 1Alternative Energy under £200m 1 1Electronic & Electrical Equipment under £200m 1 1 2Food & Drug Retailers £201m–£1bn 1 1Food Producers under £200m 1 1 2

over £1bn 1 1General Financial under £200m 3 1 1 5

over £1bn 1 1General Industrials over £1bn 1 1Household Goods under £200m 2 2

£201m–£1bn 1 1Industrial Engineering under £200m 1 1

£201m–£1bn 1 1Leisure Goods under £200m 1 1Media under £200m 3 1 1 5Mobile Telecommunications under £200m 2 2Nonlife Insurance under £200m 1 1

£201m–£1bn 1 1Oil & Gas Producers under £200m 1 1Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution over £1bn 1 1Personal Goods under £200m 1 1Software & Computer Services under £200m 1 1 1 1 1 5Support Services under £200m 2 1 1 2 1 3 11

£201m–£1bn 1 2 2Technology Hardware & Equipment under £200m 1 1 2

£201m–£1bn 1 1Travel & Leisure over £1bn 1 1 2Grand total 19 10 2 10 5 7 3 56

Q3 2013 — by sector, size and region


Number and percentage of warning companies by turnover and region, 2008–Q3 2013

Number and percentage of warning companies by turnover, 2008–Q3 2013

Turnover band

Under £200mn £201mn–£1bn Over £1bn Total

2008

Q1 74 65% 28 25% 12 11% 114 100%

Q2 70 71% 14 14% 14 14% 98 100%

Q3 77 69% 21 19% 13 12% 111 100%

Q4 75 60% 33 26% 18 14% 126 100%

2009

Q1 75 60% 33 26% 18 14% 126 100%

Q2 32 51% 22 35% 9 14% 63 100%

Q3 32 62% 19 37% 1 2% 52 100%

Q4 36 72% 9 18% 5 10% 50 100%

2010

Q1 42 78% 9 17% 3 6% 54 100%

Q2 32 71% 8 18% 5 11% 45 100%

Q3 29 63% 11 24% 6 13% 46 100%

Q4 25 49% 19 37% 7 14% 51 100%

2011

Q1 45 60% 18 24% 12 16% 75 100%

Q2 40 63% 9 14% 15 23% 64 100%

Q3 37 73% 11 22% 3 6% 51 100%

Q4 53 60% 24 27% 11 13% 88 100%

2012

Q1 39 53% 19 26% 15 21% 73 100%

Q2 37 62% 16 27% 7 12% 60 100%

Q3 35 51% 21 31% 12 18% 68 100%

Q4 42 49% 28 33% 16 19% 86 100%

2013

Q1 43 60% 19 26% 10 14% 72 100%

Q2 33 63% 12 20% 9 17% 54 100%

Q3 42 77% 8 13% 6 11% 56 100%

4-year average 38 62% 15 24% 9 15% 62 100%

N.B.: Figures are to the nearest whole number. Totals may add up to slightly above or below 100%.


Number and percentage of warning companies by region, 2008–Q3 2013

Region

London Midlands/ East Anglia

North West Scotland and NI

South East South West/ Wales

Yorkshire/ North East

Total

2008

Q1 36 32% 17 15% 11 10% 3 3% 28 25% 13 11% 6 5% 114 100%

Q2 32 33% 10 10% 4 4% 4 4% 22 22% 13 13% 13 13% 98 100%

Q3 37 33% 21 19% 8 7% 6 5% 19 17% 11 10% 9 8% 111 100%

Q4 43 34% 22 17% 8 6% 126 100% 20 16% 15 12% 8 6% 126 100%

2009

Q1 32 27% 12 10% 3 3% 126 100% 24 21% 14 12% 19 16% 117 100%

Q2 18 29% 10 16% 3 5% 63 100% 14 22% 5 8% 10 16% 63 100%

Q3 15 29% 9 17% 0 0% 52 100% 6 12% 7 13% 5 10% 52 100%

Q4 18 36% 7 14% 2 4% 50 100% 9 18% 5 10% 5 10% 50 100%

2010

Q1 11 20% 12 22% 3 6% 1 2% 15 28% 6 11% 6 11% 54 100%

Q2 7 16% 9 20% 2 4% 2 4% 12 27% 7 16% 6 13% 45 100%

Q3 9 20% 8 17% 4 9% 3 7% 11 24% 6 13% 5 11% 46 100%

Q4 11 22% 6 12% 10 20% 1 2% 11 22% 6 12% 6 12% 51 100%

2011

Q1 22 29% 10 13% 8 11% 2 3% 24 32% 2 3% 7 9% 75 100%

Q2 15 23% 4 6% 6 9% 2 3% 15 23% 11 17% 11 17% 64 100%

Q3 21 41% 5 10% 2 4% 2 4% 10 20% 5 10% 6 12% 51 100%

Q4 20 23% 9 22% 8 9% 1 1% 18 20% 9 10% 13 15% 88 100%

2012

Q1 21 29% 3 18% 5 7% 5 7% 17 23% 5 7% 7 10% 73 100%

Q2 13 22% 7 12% 7 12% 5 8% 15 25% 3 5% 10 17% 60 100%

Q3 20 29% 12 18% 8 12% 4 6% 14 21% 5 7% 5 7% 68 100%

Q4 34 40% 10 12% 7 8% 5 6% 18 21% 8 9% 4 5% 86 100%

2013

Q1 22 31% 11 15% 10 14% 2 3% 11 15% 7 10% 9 13% 72 100%

Q2 16 30% 5 9% 4 7% 7 13% 16 30% 2 4% 4 7% 54 100%

Q3 19 34% 10 18% 2 4% 3 5% 10 18% 5 9% 7 13% 56 100%

4-year average 17 28% 9 15% 6 9% 3 5% 14 23% 6 9% 7 11% 62 100%


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