Hattiesburg Metropolitan Area Demographic Study

8/14/2019 Hattiesburg Metropolitan Area Demographic Study

1/20FORREST, LAMAR & PERRY COUNTIES

COMMUNITY ANALYSIS


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2011 Projection 77,346 49,781 12,3572006 Estimate 75,133 44,847 12,2552000 Census 72,604 39,070 12,1381990 Census 68,314 30,424 10,865

Growth 2006-2011 2.95% 11.00% 0.83%Growth 2000-2006 3.48% 14.79% 0.96%Growth 1990-2000 6.28% 28.42% 11.72%

Population Forrest Lamar Perry

2006 Est. Median Age 31.43 33.76 34.802006 Est. Average Age 35.11 35.21 36.17

2006 Population by Age

2011 Projection 29,514 18,802 4,6342006 Estimate 28,474 16,793 4,5492000 Census 27,183 14,396 4,4201990 Census 25,150 10,883 3,802

Growth 2006-2011 3.65% 11.96% 1.87%Growth 2000-2006 4.75% 16.65% 2.92%Growth 1990-2000 8.08% 32.28% 16.25%

Households

2006 Est. Average Household Size 2.44 2.64 2.67

2006 Household Size

Average Family Household Income $54,386 $75,200 $43,676Median Family Household Income $42,054 $57,308 $37,323

2006 Income by Household

Median Owner-Occupied Value $77,860 $107,488 $56,889

2006 Housing Values


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LAMAR COUNTY


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TRADE AREA POPULATION

Once the geographic trade area is de ned, the trade area population can be determined. Thisis preformed by removing the urban population from county population to determine how manyresidents live in rural areas per square mile. The rural residents per square mile are then multipliedtimes the number of square miles the trade area encompasses within the county and the urbanareas within the trade area are added to rural population. This process is repeated for each countythe trade area comes into contact with. The individual county portions within the trade area areadded to derive at the total trade area population.

FORREST COUNTY

HattiesburgTrade Area Size Trade Area Population

Based on Population 3,757.39 251,306.00

Based on Retail Sales 5,086.76 295,198.00

LAMAR COUNTY

LumbertonTrade Area Size Trade Area Population

Based on Population 215.37 14,940.00Based on Retail Sales 77.05 6,649.00

SumrallTrade Area Size Trade Area Population


PurvisTrade Area Size Trade Area Population



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POTENTIAL SALES & PORTION CAPTURED

Potential sales estimate what local sales would be for a given sector if everyone within the com-munitys trade area purchased goods and services locally. Spending patterns used to calculatepotential sales are based on state spending patterns.

Portion captured is simply the percent of potential sales that a community is getting.

RichtonTrade Area Size Trade Area Population


BeaumontTrade Area Size Trade Area Population

Based on Population 251.01 5,501.00

Based on Retail Sales 112.81 3,226.00

New AugustaTrade Area Size Trade Area Population


PERRY COUNTY

LAMAR COUNTY

LumbertonSector

AutomotiveMachinery, Equipment, and SuppliesFood and BeverageFurniture and FixturesPublic UtilitiesApparel and General MerchandiseLumber and Building MaterialsMiscellaneous RetailMiscellaneous ServicesWholesaleContractingRecreationTotal RetailTotal for City

Potential Sales Portion Captured$16,007,580 6.3%

$5,870,339 0.0%$17,365,746 29.9%

$2,002,151 0.0%$9,602,996 0.0%

$17,261,945 8.7%$6,967,646 0.0%$8,640,202 16.6%$5,193,331 0.0%$1,975,923 0.0%

$11,591,358 0.0%$288,913 0.0%

$100,661,984 14.6%$102,637,907 14.3%


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PurvisSector Potential Sales Portion Captured

Automotive $15,231,428 67.9%Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $5,585,707 0.0%Food and Beverage $16,523,741 73.5%Furniture and Fixtures $1,905,073 0.0%Public Utilities $9,137,380 0.0%Apparel and General Merchandise $16,424,973 22.0%Lumber and Building Materials $6,629,809 39.9%Miscellaneous Retail $8,221,269 25.4%Miscellaneous Services $4,941,524 30.2%Wholesale $1,880,118 0.0%Contracting $11,029,331 0.9%Recreation $274,905 0.0%Total Retail $95,781,232 38.9%Total for City $97,661,350 38.2%

SumrallSector Potential Sales Portion Captured

Automotive $10,460,267 33.5%Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $3,836,015 0.0%Food and Beverage $11,347,770 50.9%Furniture and Fixtures $1,308,320 0.0%

Public Utilities $6,275,146 0.0%Apparel and General Merchandise $11,279,941 20.8%Lumber and Building Materials $4,553,058 14.0%Miscellaneous Retail $5,646,002 25.0%Miscellaneous Services $3,393,619 0.0%Wholesale $1,291,181 0.0%Contracting $7,574,455 0.0%Recreation $188,792 0.0%Total Retail $65,778,291 28.0%Total for City $67,069,472 27.5%


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New AugustaSector Potential Sales Portion Captured

Automotive $2,437,233 0.0%Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $893,788 0.0%

Food and Beverage $2,644,021 136.6%Furniture and Fixtures $304,837 0.0%Public Utilities $1,462,104 0.0%Apparel and General Merchandise $2,628,217 0.0%Lumber and Building Materials $1,060,859 0.0%Miscellaneous Retail $1,315,514 18.6%Miscellaneous Services $790,710 0.0%Wholesale $300,844 0.0%Contracting $1,764,842 0.0%Recreation $43,988 0.0%Total Retail $15,326,285 43.3%Total for City $15,627,129 42.5%

Beaumont

Sector Potential Sales Portion CapturedAutomotive $5,556,487 0.0%Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies $2,037,689 0.0%Food and Beverage $6,027,928 61.9%Furniture and Fixtures $694,979 0.0%Public Utilities $3,333,354 0.0%Apparel and General Merchandise $5,991,897 0.0%Lumber and Building Materials $2,418,582 0.0%Miscellaneous Retail $2,999,153 1.6%Miscellaneous Services $1,802,688 0.0%Wholesale $685,875 0.0%Contracting $4,023,546 0.0%Recreation $100,286 0.0%Total Retail $34,941,386 17.8%Total for City $35,627,260 17.5%

PERRY COUNTY


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FORREST COUNTY

HattiesburgSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive 201,279.38 4.41

Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies 180,359.90 3.95Food and Beverage 184,286.10 4.03Furniture and Fixtures 337,866.48 7.39Public Utilities 118,235.36 2.59Apparel and General Merchandise 283,169.76 6.20Lumber and Building Materials 264,416.85 5.79Miscellaneous Retail 207,341.35 4.54Miscellaneous Services 153,448.20 3.36Wholesale - -Contracting 5,226.60 0.11Recreation 333,975.24 7.31Total Retail 186,453.55 4.08Total for City 182,864.06 4.00

PetalSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive 7,574 0.96Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies 3,946 0.50

Food and Beverage 17,296 2.18Furniture and Fixtures 17,312 2.19Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise 36,003 4.55Lumber and Building Materials 17,488 2.21Miscellaneous Retail 9,749 1.23Miscellaneous Services 10,121 1.28Wholesale - -Contracting 770 0.10Recreation 23,270 2.94

Total Retail 15,215 1.92Total for City 14,922 1.88


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LAMAR COUNTY

LumbertonSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive 947.50 0.42

Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -Food and Beverage 4,467.71 1.98Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise 1,304.27 0.58Lumber and Building Materials - -Miscellaneous Retail 2,484.84 1.10Miscellaneous Services - -Wholesale - -Contracting - -Recreation - -Total Retail 2,180.80 0.97Total for City 2,138.82 0.95

Purvis

Sector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005Automotive 9,172.65 4.05Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -

Food and Beverage 9,927.53 4.39Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise 2,965.92 1.31

Lumber and Building Materials 5,391.90 2.38Miscellaneous Retail 3,426.07 1.51Miscellaneous Services 4,086.01 1.81Wholesale - -Contracting 125.93 0.06Recreation - -

Total Retail 5,261.56 2.33Total for City 5,160.27 2.28


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BeaumontSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive - -Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -Food and Beverage 3,405.70 3.65

Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise - -

Lumber and Building Materials - -Miscellaneous Retail 89.50 0.10Miscellaneous Services - -Wholesale - -Contracting - -Recreation - -Total Retail 979.26 1.05

Total for City 960.41 1.03

PERRY COUNTY

SumrallSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive 2,608.46 2.28Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -Food and Beverage 3,957.46 3.47Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise 1,616.30 1.42

Lumber and Building Materials 1,092.78 0.10Miscellaneous Retail 1,945.75 1.70Miscellaneous Services - -Wholesale - -Contracting - -Recreation - -Total Retail 2,181.83 1.91Total for City 2,139.83 1.87


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New AugustaSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive - -Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -Food and Beverage 2,374.67 3.41Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise - -Lumber and Building Materials - -Miscellaneous Retail 322.41 0.46Miscellaneous Services - -Wholesale - -Contracting - -Recreation - -Total Retail 752.93 1.08Total for City 738.44 1.06

RichtonSector Population Capture 2005 Pull Factor 2005

Automotive 1,977.90 2.06Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies - -Food and Beverage 4,512.49 4.71

Furniture and Fixtures - -Public Utilities - -Apparel and General Merchandise 1,652.42 1.72Lumber and Building Materials - -Miscellaneous Retail 670.28 0.70Miscellaneous Services - -Wholesale - -Contracting - -Recreation - -Total Retail 1,944.97 2.03

Total for City 1,907.53 1.99


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SHIFT SHARE

Shift-share is essentially looking at how competitive one region is compared to a larger region. Itemulates a mix of industries and their performance. This compares the growth patterns in our regionto a larger regions (usually the United States) growth patterns. In this study, the regional growth wascompared to the states growth as the states growth patterns are more re ective of local growthpatterns than the United States.

Shift-share is broken into three different components: The state growth component, industrial mixcomponent and regional shift component. The state growth component is the state growth rateapplied to the local level. This determines how many local jobs are attributed to state trends. Theindustrial mix component is a ratio that compares local growth rates with state growth rates. A posi-tive industrial mix component indicates that the given sector is growing locally at a faster rate thanthe state. The regional shift component shows jobs that are attributed to its relative competitiveposition and can be used to identify leading and lagging industries.

The sum of all three components is the shift-share, which is essentially the change in employment

within the two time periods used in the calculation. Since shift-share was not calculated for everysector of the economy, the total change in shift-share is not the total change in local employment,but rather the total change for the sectors calculated. This information is useful when determiningwhether rates of growth or decline are from employment mix or local competitiveness.

Forrest CountySector State Growth

ComponentIndustrial Growth

ComponentRegional ShiftComponent

Shift Share2001-2005

Manufacturing -46 418 -841 -470Natural Resources & Mining -2 19 24 40

Construction -23 32 91 100Wholesale Trade -20 27 183 190Retail Trade -72 180 262 370Transportation and Warehousing -23 -17 -579 -620Information -7 94 -107 -20Finance & Insurance -21 29 142 150Real Estate, Rental & Leasing -7 -15 43 20Professional and Business Services -15 -99 615 500Educational Services -4 -24 158 130Health Care & Social Asst -53 -232 865 580Arts, Entertainment & Recreation -4 29 -45 -20Accommodation & Food Service -51 -74 835 710Other Service (except Public Admin) -20 6 -106 -120Government -175 -12 657 470Education -68 1060 -452 540Total -612 1234 1928 2550


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Lamar CountySector State Growth




Manufacturing -19 170 -191 -40Natural Resources & Mining -3 26 -33 -10

Construction -14 18 95 100Wholesale Trade -3 5 -1 0Retail Trade -52 129 53 130Transportation and Warehousing -6 -4 -20 -30Information -4 51 -167 -120Finance & Insurance -7 9 118 120Real Estate, Rental & Leasing -3 -6 78 70Professional and Business Services -6 -38 214 170Educational Services 0 -3 23 20Health Care & Social Assistance -31 -136 427 260Arts, Entertainment & Recreation -1 8 23 30Accommodation & Food Service -23 -33 467 410Other Service (except Public Admin) -5 2 -6 -10Government -27 -2 279 250Education -17 271 26 280Total -221 445 1406 1630

Perry CountySector State Growth




Manufacturing -15 132 -238 -120Natural Resources & Mining -2 15 -13 0Construction -1 1 10 10Wholesale Trade 0 0 0 0Retail Trade -5 12 23 30Transportation andWarehousing

0 0 31 30

Information 0 4 -4 0Finance & Insurance -1 2 0 0Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 0 0 -10 -10Professional and Business Services 0 -1 1 0Educational Services 0 0 0 0Health Care & Social Asst -2 -9 171 160Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0 1 -1 0Accommodation & Food Service -1 -1 -8 -10Other Service (except Public Admin.) -1 0 0 0Government -12 -1 -77 -90Education -6 97 -41 50Total -46 93 3 50


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LOCATION QUOTIENTS

Location quotients are used to determine the degree of self-suf ciency of various sectors of the lo-cal economy. This is done by analyzing the sector employment to total employment as they relateto a larger geographic area such as the state. A location quotient greater than one indicates thatthe community is self-suf cient within a given sector and has the ability to other markets.

Forrest County

Sector Location QuotientManufacturing 0.40

Natural Resources & Mining 0.62Construction 0.90Wholesale Trade 1.20Retail Trade 1.04Transportation and Warehousing 0.53

Information 0.87Finance & Insurance 1.28Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 1.17Professional and Business Services 0.50Educational Services 0.73Health Care & Social Assistance 1.10Arts, Entertain & Recreation 0.52Accommodation & Food Service 1.05Other Service (except Public Admin) 0.91Government 1.40Education 1.70Total 1.00


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Perry County

SectorManufacturing

Natural Resources & MiningConstructionWholesale TradeRetail TradeTransportation and WarehousingInformationFinance & InsuranceReal Estate, Rental & LeasingProfessional and Business ServicesEducational Services

Health Care & Social AsstArts, Entertainment & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServiceOther Service (except Public Admin.)GovernmentEducationTotal

Location Quotient 2005

1.86

5.280.48

-0.980.440.580.85

-0.05

-

1.140.330.190.441.132.171.00

Lamar County

SectorManufacturingNatural Resources & MiningConstructionWholesale TradeRetail TradeTransportation and WarehousingInformationFinance & InsuranceReal Estate, Rental & LeasingProfessional and Business ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care & Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServiceOther Service (except Public Admin)GovernmentEducationTotal

Location

0.501.731.440.491.900.530.661.221.550.480.251.640.621.320.690.641.281.00


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CONCLUSION

When reviewing a community analysis it is important to understand the methodology behind thenumbers. Only when the methodology is understood do the numbers really become useful. Eco-nomic development theories can only produce estimations based on assumptions.

Also, the purpose of these indicators is not intended to show where a community is going wrong.They are intended to show where communities currently have an advantage and areas wherethere is room for potential growth.

DATA SOURCES

Employment - Data from The Mississippi Department of Employment Securitys Annual Aver-ages historical data series was utilized to provide employment data.

Geographic Data - Geographic size and distances were calculated using DeLormes 2006version of Street Atlas USA.

Population and Income - The source for all population and income data was Demographic-sNow, a web based demographic software package.

Retail Sales - Retail sales data for all was compiled from The Mississippi State Tax Commissions2005 Annual Report.

**PS-Hattiesburg- Because the study used very broad sectors of the economy and the potentialsales formula assumes that everyone within the trade area will purchase all goods and serviceswithin that community, potential sales were not calculated for the Hattiesburg trade area. Doingso would assume residents of the trade area would not purchase lower order goods from their localcommunities.

**Retail Sales Data-Hattiesburg- However, because of the geographic size of the retail trade area,information on communities located out of the state of Mississippi were required to calculate Hat-tiesburgs retail trade area. To determine the retail trade area size for the City of Hattiesburg retailsales gures from Sales and Marketing Management 2005 Survey of Buying Power and Media Mar-kets was used.

Documents

Hattiesburg Metropolitan Area Demographic Study