Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE

P. Bousquet, I. Pison, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, S. Szopa

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

LMDZ-INCAFull model

LMDZ-INCACH4+MCF

SACSSimplified

Atm. Chemistry System

CHIMERERegional model

Forward modelling

Inverse modelling

Traditionalinversion Variational

inversion

Atmospheric chemistry modelling at LSCE

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Hauglustaine et al., JGR, 2004

• Standard horizontal resolution 3.75x2.5

• Standard vertical resolution: 19 hybrid -p levels (surface to 35 km).

• Dynamic: large scale advection of tracers: LMDz

• Chemistry: standard version for tropospheric ozone calculation including NMHCs (90 species – 300 reactions); aerosols (mineral, sea-salt, BC, OC, sulfur): INCA

• Biogenic Emissions from the ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model

• Anthropogenic emissions from either Edgar/IIASA/RETRO

• Biomass burning from van der Werf 2006

The general circulation model: LMDz-INCA

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

LMDz-INCA General Circulation Model. INCA: tropospheric gaz phase chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). 3.75° x 2.5°.

ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model used to derive surface properties, vegetation distribution, carbon cycle, biogenic and soil emissions. 40km x 40km.

Real-time chemical weather based on operational meteorology OR reanalysis (ERA40) OR free running GCM.

Chimère regional air quality model nested in LMDz-INCA global model. 50km X 50km.

1/ Global to regional scale modeling platform

3/ 2030 simulation

PHOTOCOMP intercomparison (IPCC AR4-ACCENT) of future atmospheric composition. 25 state-of-the-art global chemistry transport models. 3 different scenarios for future surface emissions.

Regional model Chimère constrained by LMDz-INCA : relative impact of emissions versus long-range transport of pollution on air quality in Europe.

2/ 1960-2000 long-term simulationRETRO EU project (2003-2006) : reanalysis of the tropospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years.

Best available meteorology (ERA40), new monthly resolved anthropogenic and biomass burning surface emissions, stratospheric ozone climatologies.

Multimodel approach: 2 GCMs with chemistry and 3 CTMs.

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

http://www.lsce-inca.cea.fr/

1/ LMDz-INCA global chemical weather platform 3 day (NCEP) and 5 day (ECMWF) forecasts for global

tropospheric chemistry,aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

1/ Biomass burning emissions based on MODIS fires

MODIS fire pixels over last 3 days Siberian fires 31 Aug 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

1/ Vegetation and carbon real-time platform

http://www.lsce-orchidee.cea.fr/Net Primary Production, soil water content, Leaf Area Index, PAR, …

NPP

gC/m2/day

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

IsopreneIsoprene

1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC 1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC emissionsemissions

BVOC emissions and NO soil emissions derived from the ORCHIDEE vegetation model

MonoterpenesMonoterpenes10-10 kgC/m2/s

January

July

GEIAORCHIDEE

Lathière et al., ACP, 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : surface emissions

Cummulative NOx emission by country groups

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Emission (Gg/year)

Africa

Australia and New Zealand

Other Asia (except USSR &Middle East)

Middle East

Central and South America

North America

former USSR

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

Anthropogenic Emissions:

New global inventories for NOx, CO, and (detailed) NMVOC on a 0.5° 0.5° and monthly time resolution from 1960 to 2000. TEAM methodology (Pulles et al. 2006). Processed by M. Schulz (MPI Met).

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : ozone evolution

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Max

Min

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

3/ Implication for Europe : regional model

Szopa et al., GRL, 2006

Current Legislation Max. Feasible Reduction IPCC SRES A2

Surface ozone change (ppb) averaged over July (2030-Present)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Traditional inversion

Large TRANSCOM regions

Several processes on each

1979-2006 period

MCF optimisation to get OH

CH4 optimisation using optimized OH over 1984-2006

Monthly emissions & observations

Use of 13CH4 observations

Iterative procedure to calculate response functions

18 different inversions varying set-up

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Bousquet et al., 2005, 2006

Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches Philippe Bousquet 13 Décembre 2006

Optimisation des sources et puits de méthane

EmissionsPrior Poste

OH Prior Poste

Inversion méthyl-chloroforme (CH3CCl3)

Inversion méthane

∂c∂t

+ v.grad(c) +1

ρdiv(ρ ′v ′c ) + k[OH ]c = S

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Consistent with top-down estimates ?

Bousquet et al., ACP, 2005

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Geographical

Breakdown

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006/ EEA

Geographical

Europe

Source

Breakdown

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

And the plant emissions ?

Scenario with plant emissions gives the same atmospheric answer at surface station but with a 30% reduction in emissions (100 TgCH4/yr)

IAV is “borrowed” mostly to anthropogenic emissions leaving natural emissions IAV almost unchanged at least from the early 1990s

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Planned work in HYMN :

WP5 : Forward simulations with full LMDZ-INCA modelperiod ? 2-3 years ?Common initial state ?Common emissions ? Different scenarios ?What about OH ?Diagnostics ? Seasonal, synoptic, IAV ?

WP6 : Inverse modellingmulti-species variational approachUse of traditional inversions ? H2 inversion with traditional approach