Haydee Acebo, Cokiliar Brown-Smith, AJ Clark, Elijah German.

Business Research Methods

QNT/561Dr. Warren HuckabayJuly 18, 2011

Team A

Table of Contents

1

•Business Problem

2

•Research Question

3

•Hypothesis

4

•Hypothesis Testing Procedure

5

•Study Variables

6 -7

•Data Collection Plan

8

•Data Collection Results

9

•Conclusion

10

•References

Team A

Nonprofit Organizatio

n

Past President Approval Ratings

Positive Co-Relation to President Obama’s

Reelection

Business Problem

Accurate Decision Making

Team A p. 1

Research Question

Team A p. 2

Is there a difference in

the average approval

ratings during the

period 16 months prior

to election of the

presidents who were

reelected and those

who were not?

Obama

Roosevelt

Truman

Eisenhower

Johnson

Nixon

Ford

Carter

Reagan

Bush H.W.

Clinton

Note: Research question will help analyze if President Obama has more probabilities of winning reelection based on past approval ratings 16 months prior to election day.

Hypothesis

Team A p. 3

0:

0:

211

210

H

H

Null Hypothesis : There is no difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not.

Alternate hypothesis: There is a difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not.

56%

65%

68%

64%50%46

%

35%

45%

75%

51%

Presidential Approval Ratings 18 months before election

RooseveltTrumanEisenhowerJohnsonNixonFordCarterReaganBush (elder)Clinton

Courtesy: www.gallup.-com

Hypothesis Testing Procedure

Team A p. 4

Test: Difference between two independent groups. Elected and not Reelected.

Did average approval ratings during 16 months prior to reelection changed for presidents who were reelected and those who were not?

Won Reelection

Reagan at 45% 18 months before Presidential Election.

Lost Reelection

Bush H.W at 75% 18 months before Presidential Election.

Study Variables

Team A p. 5

Discrete variables

Independent variable: employment rates, healthcare, educational, and war

Dependent variable: President Obama approval ratings

Measures of central tendency for former Presidents: mean, mode, median

Level of measurement for all study variables is ratio.

Data Collection Plan

Team A p. 6

Data was collected from www.gallup.com

Team A collected Gallup Poll results of approval ratings for 10

United States Presidents

Sample size: President Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan,

Bush (elder), and Clinton

Results show three presidents lost reelection, some with favorable approval rating

Data Collection Plan (Continued)

Team A p. 7

Data was collected from www.gallup.com

Team A collected results of approval and disapproval ratings for President Obama. 16-month

period

Sample size: 1,500 adults nationwide. Study done through telephone interviews from March

2010 –June 2011

Results show President Obama has an average approval rating of 47% and an average disapproval rating

of 46%

Data Collection Results

Team A p. 8

Study Variables Mean

Unemployed 9.5528

18.872

Approve Healthcare Plan 19.688

Disapprove Healthcare Plan 10.235

Approved War Plan 16.425

Disapprove War Plan 13.156

Approve Educational Costs, Cuts and Budget 9.534Disapprove Educational Costs, Cuts and Budget 15.354

Data collected for former Presidents' approval rating

shows an average of 56% for those who were reelected and an average of 48% for those

who were not reelected.

18 Mos before Election Approval Re-elected?

% (Yes / No)

1940 Roosevelt 56% Yes

1948 Truman 54% Yes

1956 Eisenhower 68% Yes

1964 Johnson 64% Yes

1972 Nixon 50% No

1976 Ford 46% No

1980 Carter 35% No

1984 Reagan 45% Yes

1992 Bush 75% No

1996 Clinton 51% Yes

2004 Bush 36% No

Data collected for President Obama shows the percentage of approval and disapproval of plans such as, healthcare, war, and education

budgets. Obama’s total approval rating is

47% and disapproval of 46%.

Conclusion

Team A p. 9

Team A fails to reject the null hypothesisP-value greater than significance level. Team A fails to reject hypothesis

There is no difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not

The statistic model is not a predictive value tool to tell if President Obama can win reelection. Non-profit organization saves time by not rushing to decisions.

References

Team A p. 10

•Cooper, D. R., & Schindler, P. S. (2006). Business research methods (9th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

•Gallup, Inc. (2011). www.Gallup.com. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/8608/reflections-presidential-job-approval-reelection-odds.aspx

•Gallup Inc.. (2011). Gallup. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

•Lind−Marchal−Wathen: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, 13th Edition 3. Describing Data: Numerical Measures Text © The McGraw−Hill, 2008