Flood

Flood has always been a recurrent phenomenon in India. With more than 12 per cent of the total land area in India prone to flood it is necessary to understand the concept of flood. This section on ‘floods’ will help us understand the term better.

• The terms associated with floods • The types of floods • The causes of floods • The impact of floods • Preparedness measures and • The mitigation measures

Glossary of Terms Floods: High-water stages in which water over flows its natural or artificial banks onto normally dry land, such as a river inundating its floodplain. Flood hazard: The risk of damage to lives; livelihoods or property because of the floodwater is called a flood hazard. Banks of a river: Elevated land on the side of a river. This is also known as Valley side

1

3

2

4

Channel: The riverbed of a river is called the channel or the course which the river takes when it flows is called the channel of the river.

Channel capacity: The amount of water a river can hold before it floods its surrounding area. The flow of water is measured in cusecs or cubic feet per seconds.

Flood Plains: Flood plains are lands bordering rivers and streams that normally are dry but are covered with water during floods. Floods can damage buildings or other structures placed in flood plains. They also can change the pattern of water flow and increase flooding and flood damage on adjacent property by blocking the flow of water and increasing the width, depth, or velocity of floodwaters.

What are Floods?

Floods are common and mostly natural disasters. When rivers overflow their banks they cause damage to lives, property, infrastructure and crops. Floods are common and mostly natural disasters.

Floods usually are local, short-lived events that can happen suddenly and sometimes with little or no warning. They usually are caused by intense storms that produce more runoff than an area can store or a stream can carry within its normal channel. Rivers can also flood its surroundings when the dams fail, when ice or a landslide temporarily block the course of the river channel, or when snow melts rapidly. In a broader sense, normally dry lands can be flooded by high lake levels, by high tides, or by waves driven ashore by strong winds. Small streams are subject to floods (very rapid increases in runoff), which may last from a few minutes to a few hours. On larger streams, floods usually last from several hours to a few days. A series of storms might keep a river above flood stage (the water level at which a river overflows its banks) for several weeks.

Types of Floods

RIVER FLOOD Flooding along rivers is a natural and inevitable part of life. Some floods occur seasonally and some when winter or spring rains; coupled with melting snows, fill river basins with too much water, too quickly. Torrential rains from decaying hurricanes or tropical systems can also produce river flooding.

COASTAL FLOOD Winds generated from tropical storms and hurricanes or intense offshore low-pressure systems can drive ocean water inland and cause significant flooding. Escape routes can be cut off and blocked by high water. Coastal flooding can also be produced by sea waves called tsunamis (tsoo-n„ -m z), sometimes referred to as tidal waves. These waves are produced by earthquakes or volcanic activity.

URBAN FLOOD As land is converted from fields or woodlands to roads and parking lots, it loses its ability to absorb rainfall. Urbanization decreases the ability to absorb water 2 to 6 times over what would occur on natural terrain. During periods of urban flooding, streets can become swift moving rivers, while basements can become death traps as they fill with water.

FLASH FLOOD A flood that rises and falls quite rapidly with little or no advance warning, usually as the result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area. Flash floods can be caused by situations such as a sudden excessive rainfall, the failure of a dam, or the thaw of an ice jam. Flash Floods in Arroyos - An arroyo is a water-carved gully or a normally dry creek found in arid or desert regions. When storms appear in these areas, the rainwater cuts into the dry, dusty soil creating a small, fast-moving river. Flash flooding in an arroyo can occur in less than a minute, with enough power to wash away sections of pavement.

ICE JAM Floating ice can accumulate at a natural or man-made obstruction and stop the flow of water thereby causing floods. Flooding too can occur when there the snow melts at a very faster rate.

Beneficial Effects of Flooding

Periodic flooding then causes water to overflow the banks and deposit nutrient-rich sediments onto the floodplain called the silt, where they nourish the trees of the floodplain swamp. The timing of floods also influences the use of the swamps by fish and wildlife, especially for spawning and waterfowl migrations.

Water influences peat lands in still other ways. The moist condition created by precipitation or groundwater that flows into a peat land promotes plant growth and also slows the decay of dead plant matter. If groundwater rich in minerals flows into a peat land, the chemistry of that water can affect which plant species growing there. If precipitation supplies much of the water to a peat land, sphagnum mosses often grow. Sphagnum makes the water more acidic, limiting the species of plants and animals able to grow there.

Typical Effects Physical damage – structures damaged or collapsed by washing waters, landslide triggered on account of water getting saturated. Boats and fishing equipments may be lost or damaged in coastal areas.

Road damage by floods Bridge collapse in the Assam floods Outbreak of encephalitis (transmitted by mosquitoes) comes with the floods

Casualties and pubic health – people and livestock deaths caused by drowning, very few serious injuries. Outbreak of epidemics, diarrhea, viral infections, malaria. Water supplies – contamination of water (wells, ground water, piped water supply). Clean water may be unavailable. Crops and food supplies – sudden food shortage can be caused due to loss of entire harvest, spoiling of grains when saturated in water along with loss of animal fodder. The crop storage facilities and godowns may get submerged resulting in immediate food shortage. Floods may also affect the soil characteristics. The land may be rendered infertile due to erosion of top layer or may turn saline if sea water floods the area. Hazard Zones The Vulnerability Atlas of India shows pictorially the areas liable to floods. The flood hazard map is based on the Flood Atlas of India brought out by the Central Water Commission, state wise marking both the areas which are liable to flooding as well as those which have been protected. The maps given in the Vulnerability Atlas of India show the district boundaries and the location of the district towns along with the rivers district wise identification of vulnerable areas will be easy. Besides the problems of flooding in the river plains, heavy intensity rains could cause local; flooding in certain areas where the drainage is either naturally poor or the drains are choked due to various reasons such as careless dumping of refuse in the drains and lack of maintenance. Much of the flooding in the towns and cities occur due to such cases. Under cyclonic winds in coastal areas, the sea coast of India can be flooded due to heavy down pour on the one hand and storm surge on the other. The depth of inland water inundation could be worked out by taking the storm surge heights.

Death Toll in major floods of India Year Number of

people killed Location

1968 4,892 (1) Rajasthan, Gujarat - (2) North-East, West Bengal, Assam 1978 3,800 North, Northeast 1994 2,001 Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Kerala,

Gujarat states 1961 2,000 North 1998 1,811 Assam, Arunachal, Bihar, Kerala, Meghalaya, Punjab, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal states 1980 1,600 Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Kerala, Haryana 1989 1,591 Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat 1995 1,479 Bihar, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra 1997 1,442 Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and

Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madyha Pradesh, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal states

2000 1,290 Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal

1971 1,023 North India

Map showing Flood Zones in India

According to the HPC Report of Government of India, around 75% of the total rainfall is concentrated over 4 months of monsoon (June – September). Around 12% of the country’s land area is prone to floods which means around 40 million hectares are prone to flood and annually on an average 8 million is affected by floods. The most flood prone are the Brahmaputra, Ganga and the Meghana basins. The states are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and Orissa. But of late floods have also become a serious affair in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. India accounts for one- fifth of the global death count due to floods. Over 30 million people are displaced annually. Even though a particular area is prone to floods it is believed that that particular area might also be affected by drought.

Weather Patterns Can Determine When Floods Occur

Floods can occur at any time, but weather patterns have a strong influence on when and where floods are likely to occur. The Irrigation Department, Indian Meteorological Department of Government of India is responsible for detecting, tracking and receiving warning and to disseminate information.

Flood warning is disseminated by the following means: - High Priority Telegram - Doordarshan and the local cable channels - All India Radio - Bulletins in the Press - Satellite Based disaster Warning Systems - Fax - Telephone - Government Channel

The size, or magnitude, of a flood is described by a term called recurrence interval. By studying a long period of flow records for a stream, it is possible to estimate the size of a flood that would, for example, have a 5-year recurrence interval (called a 5-year flood). A 5-year flood is one that would occur, on the average, once every 5 years. Although a 100-year flood is expected to happen only once in a century, there is a 1 percent chance that a flood of that size could happen during any year. The magnitude of floods can be altered if changes are made in the drainage basin. Deforestation or changing land use pattern has increased the magnitude of flooding.

Flood Preparedness

Floods, which area natural hazard, need not become a disaster, if we are prepared and are aware of how to deal with them. This would reduce the losses of life and minimize human suffering. This guide lists simple things one can do to stay safe and protect one from floods.

Before flooding occurs

1. Know the route to the nearest safe shelters that you area aware off. 2. Keep the First Aid Kit ready with extra medication for snake bite and diarrhea 3. Strong ropes for tying things 4. A radio, torch and spare batteries 5. Stocks of fresh water, dry food, candles, matchbox, kerosene etc 6. Umbrellas and bamboo sticks (to protect from snakes) 7. Higher ground where people and animals can take shelter

When you hear a flood warning

1. Tune in to your radio or watch for warning and advice 2. Keep vigil of flood warning given by local authorities 3. Keep dry food and drinking water and warm clothes ready 4. Check your emergency kit

If you need to evacuate

1. Pack clothing, essential medication, valuables, personal papers etc in water proof bags to be taken to the safe shelter.

2. Raise furniture, appliances on beds and tables 3. Put sandbags in the toilet bowl and cover all drain holes to prevent sewage back

flow. 4. Do not get into water of unknown depth and current 5. Lock your house and take the recommended or known evacuation routes for your

area of safe shelter.

During Floods

1. Drink boiled water or use halogen tablet to purify water before drinking. 2. Keep your food covered 3. Do not let children remain on empty stomach 4. Use bleaching powder and lime to disinfect the surroundings 5. Avoid entering flood waters. If you need to enter then were proper foot wear. 6. Stay away from water over knee level.

After a Flood

1. Stay tuned to local radio. 2. Do not allow children to play in, or near, flood waters. 3. Stay away from drains, culverts. 4. Do not use electrical appliances. 5. Do not eat food, which has been in floodwaters. 6. Boil tap water. 7. Use halogen tablets before drinking.

8. Be careful of snake bites, snakebites are common during floods.

Flood Mitigation Strategies:

There are two different ways to mitigate floods: -

o Structural o Non- Structural

Structural measures are in the nature of physical measures and help in “modifying the floods”, while non- structural measures are in the nature of planning and help in “modifying the losses due to floods”. In the structural measures we keep the water away from people and in the non-structural measures to try to keep the people away from water. All of these works can be individually divided into long term and short-term measures.

Structural Measures:

a) Water Shed Management: Timely cleaning, de-silting and deepening of natural water reservoir and drainage channels (both urban and rural) must be taken up.

b) Reservoirs: The entire natural water storage place should be cleaned on a regular basis. Encroachments on tanks and ponds or natural drainage channel share to be removed well before the onset of monsoon.

c) Natural water retention Basins: Construction and protection of all the flood protection embankments, ring bunds and other bunds. Dams and levees can also be constructed which can be used as temporarily storing space which reduced the chances of lower plains getting flooded.

d) Buildings on elevated area: The buildings in flood prone areas should be constructed on an elevated area and if necessary on stilts and platform.

Non Structural Measures:

a) Flood Plain Zoning: Flood plain zoning, which places restrictions on the use of land on flood plains, can reduce the cost of flood damage. Local governments may pass laws that prevent uncontrolled building or development on flood plains to limit flood risks and to protect nearby property. Landowners in areas that adopt local ordinances or laws to limit development on flood plains can purchase flood insurance to help cover the cost of damage from floods.

Buildings on stilts or on a platform

Pedestal

Construction in a flood prone area

b) Flood Forecasting and warning: These are issued for different areas mostly by the Central water Commission/ Meteorological department and by the State Irrigation/ Flood Department.

Flood Quiz

1. What's the difference between a flood and a flash flood?

a) A flash flood involves less water

b) A flash flood happens quickly

c) A flash flood involves mud

2. What is the most important thing to do in case of a flash flood?

a) Get to higher ground

b) Gather supplies for an evacuation

c) Dive into a ditch

3. Is it safe to drive through moving flood waters?

a) Yes

b) Never

c) Only when you can see the ground underneath

4. Coastal floods are sometimes caused by what?

a) The sun's rotation

b) Paved streets

c) Hurricanes

5. What's the difference between a flood watch and a flood warning?

a) A watch means that floods have been reported

b) A watch means that floods are possible

c) A watch is a report of flood-related problems

6. Flash floods are often caused by what?

a) Slow-moving thunderstorms

b) Fault lines

c) A plugged drain

Answer Key:

1. b 4. c

2. a 5. b

3. b 6. a

WEB RESOURCES: � www.cwc.nic.in website of the Central Water Commission of India, (CWC) of India. � http://wrmin.nic.in website of the Ministry of Water Resources, GoI. � www.imd.ernet.in Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) provides all India

weather report, end of monsoon season report, weather charts, satellite images, rainfall maps, earthquake reports and severe weather warnings.

� www.ndmindia.nic.in Natural Disaster Management India. Provides current news on Flood, Drought and Cyclones, Weather Links from NIC and weather conditions/temperatures on Indian Ocean (www.weather.nic.in).

� www.nih.ernet.in India National Institute of Hydrology perform tasks such as Ground water zone mapping, Flood plain mapping, land use, salinity, sedimentation, Soil erosion, water-logging etc.

1

Cyclone

1. What is cyclone

2. Killer Cyclones

3. Cyclone Risk Mitigation and Preparedness Framework

4. Risk Mapping, Assessment and Analysis

5. Structural and Non Structural Mitigation

6. Sea Wall and Embankments

7. Bio-Shields

8. Cyclone Shelter

9. Cyclone Resistant Housing & Infrastructure

10. Early Warning and Communication

11. Community Based Disaster Preparedness

12. Risk Transfer and Risk Financing

13. Capacity Development and Training

14. Awareness and Education

15. Contingency Plans

2

What is cyclone

Millions of people living in the coastal areas of the west Atlantic, east and south Pacific and north and south Indian Oceans, regularly face the hazards of cyclone, also known as hurricane in the Western Hemisphere, typhoon in the western Pacific, willy willy near Australia and baguious in the Philippines.

Every cyclone begins as tropical low-pressure depressions, created by oceanic temperature rising above 26 degrees Celsius, which rotates clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, forming a gigantic and highly volatile atmospheric system - with an eye at the vortex (10 to 50 Km) which is a relatively calm area, an eye wall (10 to 15 km in height and 50 km in length) of gale winds and intense clouds and spiral bands of convective clouds with torrential rains (a few km wide and hundreds of km long) - that move above 34 knots (64 km per hour). The cyclones moving more than 90 km, 120 km and 225 km per hour respectively have been classified as severe, very severe and super cyclones. The hurricanes in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins are classified in Categories I to V as per Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale1.

More often the cyclone blows over and dissipates by its own momentum without causing much damage due to reduction of moisture and increase in surface friction, but sometimes it landfalls on the coastal settlements with very high velocity of wind, torrential rain and massive storm surges, resulting in devastating damages to life and property. Killer Cyclones

There are records of many killer cyclones that consumed tens of thousands of human lives, such as the Kyushu typhoon of Japan (1281) that killed more than 100,000 people, the Canton typhoon of China (1862) that took 37,000 lives, the Midnapore (1864) and the Backergunj (1876) cyclone of Bengal that claimed 75,000 and 200,000 lives respectively and the Galveston hurricane of Texas (1900) that left 12,000 dead 2.

Cyclones no longer kill such enormous numbers anymore in most of the countries due to various mitigation and preparatory measures; still people die in thousands at many places. The cyclones that killed more than 1000 lives since 1950 are listed below:

Table – I: Cyclones that Killed more than 1000 persons since 19503

Basin Cyclone Year Countries Deaths

Cyclone 1963 East Pakistan 22,000 Cyclone 1965 East Pakistan 17,000 Cyclone 1965 East Pakistan 30,000 Cyclone 1965 Karachi, Pakistan 10,000 Cyclone Bhola 1970 East Pakistan 300,000 Cyclone 1985 Bangladesh 10,000 Cyclone Gorky 1991 Bangladesh 131,000 Cyclone 1971 Orissa, India 10,000

North Indian Ocean

Cyclone 1977 Andhra, India 20,000

3

Cyclone 1996 Andhra, India 1,000 Cyclone 1998 Gujarat, India 1,000 Cyclone 1999 Orissa, India 9,500 Hurricane Flora 1963 Cuba, Haiti 8,000 Hurricane Inez 1966 Caribbean, Mexico 2,000 Hurricane Fifi 1974 Central America 5,000 Hurricane David 1969 Central America 2,608 Hurricane Mitch 1998 Central America 11,000

West Atlantic

Hurricane Katrina 2005 New Orleans, USA 1,836 Typhoon Iris 1955 Fujian, China 2,334 Typhoon Sarah 1959 Japan, South Korea 2,000 Typhoon Vera 1959 Japan 4,466

East and South Pacific

Baguious Thelma 1991 Philippines 3,000

It would be seen that out of a total 602,908 deaths due to these 22 killer cyclones since 1950, North Indian Ocean accounted for 551,500 (93%), Bay of Bengal 540,500 (89.6%) and Bangladesh (erstwhile East Pakistan) 500,000 (83%). Most of these unfortunate deaths could have been prevented if basic and elementary measures for cyclone mitigation and preparedness were in place in these countries.

Analysis of the intensity of cyclones and the deaths and damages caused by them indicate very diverse co-relationship according to the level of economic and social development of the countries and the state of preparedness of the communities. The deadliest of all cyclones in recorded history – the cyclone Bhola of 1970 in East Pakistan – was classified only as Category III (maximum wind speed 205 km, lowest pressure 966 hPa and storm surge 4 m) 4 but it killed three hundred thousand people while the economic loss was estimated at only US$ 86.4 million. Contrarily hurricane Katrina of August 2005 in New Orleans was classified as Category IV (maximum wind speed 280 km, lowest pressure 902 hPa and storm surge 6 m) 5 but the casualties, despite the terrible mismanagement of the crisis, was limited to 1836, while the economic loss mounted to US$ 81.2 billion. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 in Central America, on the contrary, was classified Category V (maximum wind speed 285 km, lowest pressure 905 hPa and storm surge 8 m) 6 that killed 11,000 people and damaged assets worth US$ 4 billion.

The lessons that can be drawn from these three catastrophic cyclonic in three

representative poor, rich and middle income countries are that the more developed the countries the less casualties would take place but more economic losses are likely to be sustained. Conversely in poor countries the human losses would be more but economic losses would be less simply because the unit costs of damages are assessed lower in developing countries. In the middle income countries the damages to life and property would be somewhere in between. The poor countries can however make a big difference if the governments invest to mitigate the effects of cyclone in a cost effective manner and the communities prepare to face the cyclones in a participatory and sustainable manner. Cyclone Risk Mitigation and Preparedness Framework

Based on the lessons learnt from the cyclones around the world and the advances made in various related sciences and disciplines on the subject a cyclone risk mitigation and preparedness framework can be presented in the shape of the following diagram:

4

Risk Mapping, Assessment and Analysis

The first and probably the most complex task of cyclone mitigation is to map the hazard, risks and vulnerabilities of cyclone at all levels, analyze and assess the levels of risks and monitor it continuously. It is only on the basis of such a knowledge base that a proper and effective strategy for cyclone risk mitigation and preparedness can be developed.

Atmospheric and remote sensing sciences have made a huge progress in the understanding of the phenomenon of cyclones. Satellite images can spot the development of low pressure zones, doppler radars can track them down and instrumented aircrafts can reach the cyclone eye, eye walls and spiral bands to transmit data on wind velocity, pressure and moisture contents of the low pressure zones. Powerful software tools are available to analyze the data to make fairly accurate forecasts on the intensity, direction and location of the landfall and the likely areas to be affected by winds, rain and storm surges.

The time series data on cyclones have been utilized to map and zone the areas prone to the hazards of cyclone. Such maps are now available at a regional, district and even sub-district levels in most of the countries. Such maps are also available in digital formats which enable integration of various spatial data with socio-economic, housing, infrastructure and other variables that can provide a quick assessment of the risks and vulnerabilities of cyclones based on which appropriate mitigation and preparedness strategies can be developed. But actual work on such data integration has been limited to a few areas only and therefore vulnerability analysis has still to be done on the basis of ground level data collection and analysis, which is yet a largely unattended task in most of the countries.

CYCLONE RISK MITIGATION FRAMEWORK

Cyclone Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Mapping, Assessment, Analysis & Monitoring

Participatory Risk Assessment Remote Sensing & Geo Information Risk Modeling

Total Risk = Mitigable Risk + Acceptable Risk

Risk mitigation Preparedness

Structural Non Structural

Sea Wall

Embankment

Bio-Shield

Cyclone Shelter

Early Warning & communication

Cyclone resistant housing and

infrastructure

Awareness

Education

Risk transfer/ risk financing

Development/ enforcement of Techno-legal

Regime

Early warning Dissemination

Contingency Plan at all levels and sectors

Community Based Disaster Preparedness

Evacuation Plan

Mock Drills

Emergency Health Management Plan

Training

5

The satellite imageries are also supplemented with data regarding topography,

vegetation, hydrology, land use- land cover, settlement pattern etc to develop numerical models of storm surge and the inundation levels based on which timely warnings can be issued and realistic evacuation plans can be drawn up to shift the people and cattle likely to be affected by the cyclone. However such theoretical advances on cyclone modeling have been confronted with constraints in practical applications which would require more sustained research for accurate forecasting and simpler application format that would enable transfer of the technology to the planners and emergency response managers. The constraints are further compounded by non-availability of accurate ground level data base and the costs involved in up-scaling such models from a pilot research phase to country wide application phase. Such works are still in progress even in advanced countries and therefore developing countries may not have the benefit of such accurate modeling in the very near future although this is well within the realm of possibility.

This only highlights the relevance and importance of community based Participatory Risk Assessment (PRA). Many such PRA tools have been developed in coastal areas which capture the intimate knowledge and perception that a community has about its own risks and vulnerabilities. Such perceptions have often been validated by scientific analysis, lending credence to the reliability, simplicity and cost effectiveness of such assessment. More importantly, it involves the communities in the entire process making it democratic, sustainable and proactive and definitely facilitates bridging the gap between assessment and preparedness or knowledge and action.

Historically the coastal communities have faced the furies of nature and have inherited an intuitive and holistic knowledge of the way the nature behaves and the impact it has on animals, plants and human lives and livelihood. Accordingly communities have learnt to develop indigenous coping mechanisms for survival, which were internalized as life style activities and transmitted from one generation to another. Many isolated communities in the coasts have survived through this process. Unfortunately the process of so-called modernization and globalization are resulting in changes in the life style of the coastal communities and many of the traditional wisdoms and practices are fast dying out. There is a need to document these practices, assess their relevance and adapt them according to the changing conditions.

Therefore the ideal tool for assessment of cyclone risks and vulnerabilities at the local

level should be a combination of scientific and traditional knowledge, each supplementing the other in a manner that science corrects those superstitions and dogmas of traditional knowledge that are not substantiated and traditional knowledge enriches scientific truths with those time tested experiments and experience of centuries that can not be simulated. Such ideal solutions are not very common, but the two complementary processes – increasing spread of scientific education on the one hand and growing respect of traditional and indigenous knowledge on the other – are creating awareness of such solutions, highlighting need for increased collaboration among the physical and social scientists for cyclone risk assessment and analysis at the local level. Total and Acceptable Risk

Any strategy for cyclone risk mitigation or for that matter mitigation of any disaster risk would depend on correct estimation of total and acceptable risks. The concept of ‘total risk’ connotes the sum total of all probable harmful consequences or expected losses from a disaster such as deaths, injuries, damages to movable or immovable property, livelihoods, infrastructure, disruption of economic activities or environment damages. It may not always be easy to project such damages, such as environmental or psycho-social damages would be difficult to be quantified, but based on correct risk assessment of disasters it should be

6

possible to construct different scenarios of total risks according to the intensity, location or time of disasters. Once realistic assessment of total risks are available, the countries and communities should make strategic decisions on how much of these risks can be prevented outright, how much can be mitigated and to what extent by the various agencies.

The residual risks that can neither be prevented nor mitigated in a cost effective

manner in the given social, economic, political, cultural, technical or environmental conditions can be regarded as ‘acceptable risks’. Therefore the level of ‘acceptable risk’ would vary from place to place and also from time to time. Once the level of ‘acceptable risk’ is decided countries and communities must be prepared to face these risks so that the damages to life, livelihood and property from these risks can be reduced to their minimum. Ideally the level of preparedness should be equal to the level of ‘acceptable risk’. Excess preparedness in any sector or level would be wasteful which should better be avoided. Similarly deficit in preparedness would be taking a chance with risks that may cause avoidable damages. Structural and Non Structural Mitigation

Given the nature of the cyclonic hazards, it shall not be possible to prevent the risks of cyclone however advanced the country may be socially or economically, as has been well demonstrated during the aftermath of hurricane Katrina in the USA. On the contrary there are indications that the hazards of cyclone would increase due to the effects of global warming and the resultant climate changes. As the ocean surface temperature rises probability of atmospheric depressions on tropical seas would increase. Similarly as the glacial melts raises the level of ocean the impact of storm surges would be more severe and many sea wall or embankment modeling done in the past may undergo revisions necessitating redefinition of the design parameters of such constructions.

In the face of increasing menace of cyclonic hazards, mitigation would remain the

key and the most effective strategy to reduce the risks of cyclone. Every country and community has to decide its own mitigation strategy according to its own risks, resources and capabilities. Broadly such strategies would be two fold: structural and non-structural. Structural mitigation measures generally refer to capital investment on physical constructions or other development works, which include engineering measures and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and other protective infrastructure. Non-structural measures refer to awareness and education, policies techno-legal systems and practices, training, capacity development etc. Sea Wall and Embankments Among the structural mitigation measures sea walls and saline water embankments are probably the most effective and capital intensive investment to mitigate the risks of cyclones. A seawall is a coastal defense constructed usually of reinforced concrete on the inland part of a coast to prevent the ingress of storm surges arising out of cyclones. Sometimes the sea wall is constructed with a multiple purpose of reclaiming low lying land or preventing coastal erosion. The height of sea walls is determined according to the maximum observed height of storm surges which may be as high as 10 meters. Therefore sea walls are usually massive structures which can be built only with a heavy investment. Maintenance of such structures further requires recurrent expenditure. Hence sea walls along the entire coast are never a practicable solution to prevent or mitigate storm surges, but such walls are recommended when valuable assets like a city or a harbor is to be protected.

Sea walls can be vertical, sloping or curved. Modern concrete sea walls tend to be curved to deflect the wave energy back out to sea, reducing the force. There are instances of many sea walls which were constructed after devastating cyclones and which successfully prevented such disasters. The most important is the 12 Km long and 17 ft high seawall

7

constructed in Texas after the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 which killed 8000 people. The seawall has never been overtopped by a storm surge from a hurricane, although maintenance of the wall has been beset with various engineering problems. The Gold Coast seawall in Australia was laid along the urban sections of the Gold Coast coastline following 11 cyclones in 1967. The massive stone seawall in Pondicherry constructed and maintained by the French engineers kept the historic city center dry even though tsunami waves of December 2004 had driven water 24 feet above the normal high-tide mark. Similarly 3.5 meter high sea wall in Maldives saved the city of Male from the tsunami. Such success stories are available from many coastal cities. There are also instances where absence of such protective structures near the beaches and resorts and breaches in sea walls near the cities and towns resulted in severe damages to life and property.

If sea walls are essential to protect coastal cities and harbors, saline water

embankments are recommended to protect rural settlements and to prevent saline water ingress into agricultural and horticultural land. Such embankments are usually a ridge built with earth or rock to contain the storm surges. Cost benefit calculations usually do not permit very high specifications for such constructions and therefore effectiveness of such embankments in preventing or mitigating the impacts of cyclones have been rather limited. Further, saline embankments have the potential to kill the mangroves due to chocking of saline water. Therefore such embankments should be constructed in limited areas where vegetative protection would not be adequate to prevent the ingress of saline water into habitations. Bio-Shields

Bio shields usually consist of mangroves, casuarinas salicornia, laucaena, atriplex, palms, bamboo and other tree species and halophytes and other shrub species that inhabit lower tidal zones. These can block or buffer wave action with their stems, which can measure upto 30 meter high and several meters in circumference. They trap sediment in their roots, thereby maintain a shallow slope on the seabed that absorbs the energy of tidal surges. They also break the high velocity of winds and thus protect agricultural crops and shelters besides providing shelter and grazing lands for the livestock and farms. They reduce evaporation from the soil, transpiration from the plants and moderate extreme temperatures. They protect fertile coastal agricultural land from erosion. They also serve as carbon sinks as they help enhance carbon sequestration which makes coastal communities eligible for carbon credit to earn additional income. Besides they promote sustainable fisheries by releasing nutrients in the water.

Unfortunately the multiple and long term environmental protection and economic functions of the bio-shields have not been adequately appreciated until very recently. Unabated anthropogenic pressures of coastal settlements and unchecked commercial exploitation of coastal resources have resulted in denudation of such natural buffers exposing large areas to the vagaries of cyclonic storms. In the Indian state of Orissa, where the low-lying coastline has been stripped of mangroves to make way for shrimp farms, the super cyclone of 1999 left more than 10,000 people dead and around 7.5 million homeless. Although the cyclone affected over 250 km of Orissa’s coastline, it was only the highly denuded area of 100 km through which water surged. Other areas with intact mangrove forests were largely unaffected. Again

8

the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 impacted those areas more severely where the bio-shields buffer were either not available or depleted considerably. In such areas tsunami waves made deep ingress into land, ruined crops, drowned livestock and poisoned arable land and water supplies with salt. Mangroves and other coastal habitats, where still in existence, met the tsunami head on. For instance, the Pichavaram mangrove forest, a tourist attraction in Cuddalore district, protected about 6,000 people living in six hamlets located between 100 meters and one kilometer from the mangroves. Seawater did not enter the village and hence there was no loss of property.

Therefore systematic regeneration of the bio-shields in the coastal belts

wherever feasible is the most natural and cost effective method of protecting these areas from storm surges and erosion. This is not an easy task which can be achieved instantly since there is a time cycle for such plantations to grow and survive against fresh pressures of winds and waves. Therefore serious efforts are required in designing such bio-shields, selecting the appropriate fast growing species suitable to the agro-climatic zones and involving the coastal communities in the maintenance and protection of such buffer zone of plantations. Cyclone Shelter A large number of people in the coastal areas live in thatched houses which cannot withstand the high velocity of wind and storm surges resulting in extensive damages of such houses and deaths and injuries of a large number of poor people. The high rates of casualties in cyclones in Bangladesh and India are primarily due to unsafe buildings in the coastal areas. The poor economic conditions of the people may not permit them to rebuild their houses as per the cyclone resistant designs and specifications. Therefore, community cyclone shelters constructed at appropriate places within the easy access of the habitations of the vulnerable communities can provide an immediate protection from deaths and injuries due to the collapse of houses. Such shelters are usually built on pillars above the danger level of storm surges/inundation, are specious enough to accommodate a few hundred people of the neighboring hamlets and provide provisions of drinking water, sanitation, kitchen, etc. During the normal season such shelters can be utilized as schools, dispensaries or other community purposes.

A large number of such cyclone shelters were built in the coastal areas of Bangladesh and eastern and south India, which provided immediate shelters to the vulnerable communities. Drastic reduction in the number of deaths and injuries in the cyclones during the past 5-6 years can be partly attributed to these shelters. Therefore, the governments have placed a very high priority on the construction of such shelters in areas which have hitherto not been covered. Cyclone Resistant Housing & Infrastructure Super cyclones with wind velocity of 250 km per hour and above have caused damages to even engineered structures at many places around the world. This was largely due to the absence of appropriate design criteria for construction of buildings and infrastructure which can withstand the pressures of such strong winds. Bureau of Standards of various countries have developed revised design norms which are followed for new constructions. However, the compliance standards of such norms have not been very effective largely due to inadequacies of properly trained engineers

9

and masons who can supervise and raise such constructions. The problem is further compounded by a week and ineffective system of enforcement of the guidelines.

The problem is even more complex for the large number of existing structures that have already been constructed without adherence to the revised norms. Such buildings can only be retrofitted with an additional cost which the house owners find reluctant to invest. Various advanced countries have passed legislations which has made retrofitting mandatory. In the developing countries the focus is confined more to strengthening the lifeline buildings which would play a critical role during emergency operations such as hospitals, emergency operation centers, police control rooms etc, leaving other unsafe structures and habitations as ‘acceptable risks’, for which adequate preparedness measures should be developed. Early Warning and Communication Early warning of cyclones and its dissemination to the coastal habitations is an important preparatory measure to reduce the losses of life and property during cyclones. Due to heavy investments involved in the installation, operation and management of modern early warning system, it is also considered as an essential component of structural mitigation.

With the rapid development of science and technology the early warning and communication system is undergoing changes. Powerful doppler radar systems can now track the movement of atmospheric depression and accurate early warnings can be issued 48-72 hours in advance about the probability of cyclone, its intensity and wind speed, direction and possible location of the land fall. Such warnings are broadcast through the radio and television network for the information of people in the coastal areas. Based on the data generated by the system numerical modeling on storm surge and flooding can forecast the inundation level from where the affected population can be evacuated to safer places. There are hundreds of such instances where early warning helped to save thousands of lives in the coastal areas. However, inaccuracies in the modeling exercises have some time led to exaggerated responses leading to unnecessary evacuation of hundreds of persons which could have been avoided. Such inaccurate predictions some time reduce the faith of coastal communities on the early warning system, which need to be avoided at any cost. It is expected that with further advances of early warning technology the predictions would be more and more accurate leading to better responses in emergency situations. It is also expected that increasing coverage of radio and television, more extensive use of ham radios and innovative use of mobile communication system would facilitate better dissemination of early warning to the isolated coastal communities particularly in the remote islands. The dissemination system can be made more effective with the active involvement of the communities and households in the preparation of their own cyclone contingency plans. Community Based Disaster Preparedness Communities are the first real time responder to any disaster situation. However developed or efficient a response mechanism could be there would always be a time gap between the disaster and the actual response from the government and other agencies. In the case of Mumbai flood of July 2005 the response time was 12

10

hours while in the case of hurricane Katrina a month later it was more than 48 hours. During this critical period it is the community which has to look towards itself for self help. Therefore if the communities are mobilized and trained to assess their own risk through participatory risk assessment process, develop their own contingency plans and set up their own teams for evacuation, search and rescue, emergency shelter, first aid etc, the risks of cyclones can be managed with significant reduction in number of deaths and injuries.

The post 1991 cyclones in Bangladesh have demonstrated how a Community Based Disaster Preparedness (CBDP) programme could make a drastic reduction in the risks of cyclonic disasters. Therefore, more and more governments have adopted CBDP as an important strategy for disaster risk management particularly in the coastal areas. The Government of Philippines has in fact amended their laws to devolve certain emergency response functions to the communities. The Government of India is implementing the largest ever CBDP programme in 169 multi-hazard districts of 17 States covering nearly 300 million people. Risk Transfer and Risk Financing Mounting economic losses due to cyclones cannot be compensated by the Government whose role would be limited to providing ex-gratia relief to the next of kin of persons who have died or to those sustained injuries and to provide support for the reconstruction of houses and livelihood regeneration for the poor and lower middle class people. Government support would also be necessary for reconstruction of the damaged public assets. The risks of industrial, commercial and other infrastructure and assets in the private and household sector can only be secured through the mechanism of risk financing and risk insurance. As the country develops, the share of private sector in the GDP would increase and, therefore, risk financing would be assuming increasing importance. In the developed countries nearly ninety percent of the assets are covered by insurance against natural disasters which has encouraged collateral investment on disaster resistant housing and infrastructure so as to reduce the premium for insurance. This has been a win-win situation for the private and individual sector in transferring their risks to the insurance companies, for the insurance companies in generating business and for the government in reducing its expenditure on relief and reconstruction while at the same time encouraging private investments for better safety standards for buildings and infrastructure. The experiences gained in this regard need to be further adapted according to the conditions of low and middle income countries. Various innovative services and products like micro insurance, micro credit etc. have been developed in many countries for increasing the resilience of local communities. Micro credit is particularly playing an importance role in retrofitting the vulnerabilities of the poorer sections of the community, especially the women, in the developing countries. Capacity Development and Training Capacity development is the most cost effective method of reducing the vulnerabilities of the people living in the coastal areas. The coastal communities have a certain degree of capacities built into their social systems and practices acquired through inherited experiences of generations. But such indigenous capacities are often overwhelmed by the vagaries of nature due to various anthropogenic factors like the

11

degradation of environment, changing land uses, pressures of population on settlements, climate change etc. Therefore, the local capacities have to be continuously upgraded and further developed according to the changing needs and the developments of science and technology and other improved practices in various sectors. The challenge of capacity development is to transfer the new horizons of knowledge into actionable modules at the local levels for the local people by the local community. Such capacities can be developed through meetings, interactions, discussions, exposure visits and trainings.

Training is particularly necessary for cutting edge functionaries within and outside the government at various levels in different sectors to impart them with necessary skill for cyclone risk reduction and management. Training programmes have to be practical, scenario based and exercise and problem solving oriented so that the functionaries are aware of their specific responsibilities and are able to discharge those responsibilities efficiently before, during and after the cyclonic disasters. Training is also required for those community members who would be part of the community response teams for the initial critical hours and days till specialized assistance from the government and non-governmental agencies from the outside are organized. Such trainings may include maroon search and rescue, first aid, evacuation, temporary shelter management, arrangements of drinking water and sanitation, provision of cooked food etc. Such trainings can be better organized by a core group of community trainers who can be trained intensively by the specialized government and non-government agencies. Awareness and Education While training and capacity development target specific groups according to their specific training needs, awareness generation is more of a general in nature which sensitizes common masses about the risks, vulnerabilities of cyclones and the preventive, mitigative and preparedness measures that can be taken at the government, community, household and individual level. Electronic, print and folk media can play important roles in awareness generation on a large scale. Awareness and sensitization programme can also be organized for more specific and limited audience such as parliamentarians, policy makers, media and other selected audience. Cyclone education programme, on the contrary, would be more formalized curriculum which can be institutionalized within the education system at various levels. Disaster management has already been included in the educational curriculum of the schools in many countries and cyclone risk mitigation can be a part of such curriculum. Various branches of science and technology can have course modules on Cyclone Risk Management. For example, civil engineering and architectural courses can have curriculum on cyclone resistant housing and infrastructure. Medical and mental health sciences can have course module on emergency health and trauma management for cyclone affected people, while IT and Communication sciences may have courses on Early Warning and Communication. Such curriculum at various levels of general and professional courses would help to develop necessary

12

professional expertise to support the disaster risk mitigation and preparedness programmes of the government and other agencies at different levels. Contingency Plans In the not too distant past whenever a severe cyclone storm has struck the coastal areas in the developing countries the communities and government have mostly been caught unaware and often they have been so overwhelmed by the all round damages and destructions that it has taken quite some time for them to recover from the initial shocks and to plan and act in a coordinated manner, resulting in considerable chaos and confusion not only among the decision makers but also the emergency responders and other key stakeholders. Coordination among the agencies becomes a casualty in a crisis situation which affects the relief and reconstruction operations.

The disastrous consequences of an absence of a pre-disaster contingency plan has been demonstrated repeatedly in many countries on a number of occasions. Therefore, one of the most critical elements of cyclone risk management is to have a contingency plan in readiness, which would clearly delineate the roles and responsibilities of various agencies within and outside the government, define the exact functions to be performed by them, the process to be followed in the performance of these functions, the tools and equipments to be kept in readiness, procurements to be made, evacuation drills to be followed, the emergency medical plan to be put in place etc. Such a contingency plan should be prepared vertically at the national, provincial, district and sub-district and community level and horizontally for the different sectors – police, civil defence, health, fire services, food and civil supplies, agriculture, fisheries, water supply, roads and bridges and so on.

Standard operating procedure should be laid down for each activity to avoid

any confusion and to ensure coordination among the various agencies involved in the response, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction programmes after the disasters. Such contingency plan should be reviewed periodically to update them according to changing situations and also to create awareness among all the stakeholders. The best way to keep the contingency plan in readiness is to conduct mock drills at least once in a year before the cyclone season starts so that the operational difficulties in implementation of the plan are sorted out at the ground level and the various agencies within and outside the government can work together in a coordinated and efficient manner when the disaster would actually strike. Such mock drills again should be conducted at various levels to ensure operational readiness of the system.

Even with all these mitigation and preparatory measures in place the cyclones

would continue to strike the coastal settlements and probably these would strike with more frequencies and greater intensities in future. Death, injuries and losses can no doubt be reduced with better preparedness and mitigation measures, but these can not be avoided altogether. The challenge would be how efficiently these damages are managed, how best the affected people are rescued and provided relief and rehabilitation assistance in a humane and transparent manner, how fast the damaged houses and infrastructure are reconstructed and how quickly the pre-disaster situations are restored and normal life bounces back to its rhythm. This would require a pre

13

disaster recovery planning to be in place, ready for implementation, whenever a disaster strikes.

******

1 SSI scale is based on three parameters - maximum sustained wind speed, minimum central pressure and level of storm surge. 2 NOAA Technical Memorandum, the Deadliest Tropical Cyclones, 1995. 3 Compiled from NOAA and other sources. 4 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1970 5 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005 6 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998

DROUGHT INTRODUCTION Drought is a climatic anomaly, characterized by deficient supply of moisture resulting either from sub-normal rainfall, erratic rainfall distribution, higher water need or a combination of all the factors. The escalating impacts of droughts have increasingly drawn the attention of scientists, planners and society. The vulnerability to drought in relation to the increasing needs of the growing population has become a point of great concern, especially on the food front. In spite of the technological developments in providing improved crop varieties and better management practices, in India, agriculture has been considered a gamble as the agricultural productivity is strongly influenced by the vagaries of the monsoon. Droughts are the resultant of acute water shortage due to lack of rains over extended periods of time affecting various human activities and lead to problems like widespread crop failure, unreplenished ground water resources, depletion in lakes/ reservoirs, shortage of drinking water and, reduced fodder availability etc. Often a region adopts itself to a certain level of water shortage based on the long-term climatic conditions experienced by it. Any negative departure from these levels creates conditions of drought, depending on the intensity and duration of this deficit. Thus drought conditions differ from region to region. Also the impact of drought over a region varies depending on which economic activity is impaired. Because drought affects many economic and social sectors, scores of definitions have been developed by a variety of disciplines and the approaches taken to define it also reflect regional and ideological variations. In general, drought means different things to different people. To a meteorologist it is the absence of rain while to the agriculturist it is the deficiency of soil moisture in the crop root zone to support crop growth and productivity. To the hydrologist it is the lowering of water levels in lakes, reservoirs, etc., while for the city management it may mean the shortage of drinking water availability Thus, it is unrealistic to expect a universal definition of drought for all fields of activity. Droughts differ from other natural hazards in several important ways:

• slow-onset, creeping phenomenon that makes it difficult to determine the onset and end of the event;

• duration may range from months to years; • no universal definition; • no single indicator or index can identify precisely the onset and severity of the

event; • impacts are generally non-structural and difficult to quantify; • spatial extent is usually much greater than for other natural hazards, making

assessment and response actions difficult, since impacts are spread over larger geographical areas;

• because of their potentially long duration, the core area or epicenter will change over time, reinforcing the need for continuous monitoring of climate and water supply indicators

• impacts are cumulative and the effects magnify when events continue from one season or year to the next;

HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS The drought prone areas in the country classified on annual rainfall departures fall either in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions where droughts occur frequently. The probabilities of occurrence of droughts in different meteorological sub-divisions are given in the Table below: Table: Probability of occurrence of drought in different meteorological sub-divisions:

Meteorological sub-division Frequency of deficient rainfall

Assam Very rare. Once in 15 years West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Bihar and Orissa

Once in 5 years

South Interior Karnataka, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Vidarbha

Once in 4 years

Gujarat, east Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh

Once in 3 years

Tamil Nadu, Jammu & Kashmir and Telangana, West Rajasthan

Once in 2.5 years

As expected, the probabilities are high in the arid zone (Western India) compared with other sub-divisions. However, droughts occur at random and no periodicity has been noticed. The historical rainfall data of the country suggests that the monsoon rainfall recorded in the country during drought year 1918 was the lowest. The severe drought years that occurred over the past 200 years in the country as reported by are shown below: Table: Reported drought events in India over the past 200 years:

Period Drought years Period Drought years 1801-1825

1801,4,6,12,19,25 1901-1925

1901,4,5,7,11,18,20

1826-1850

1832, 33,37 1926-1950

1939,41

1851-1875

1853,60,62,66,68,73 1951-1975

1951,65,66,71,72,74

1876-1900

1877,83,91,97,99 1975-2000

1977,78,79,82,83,85,87,88,92

Administrative districts frequently affected by drought

States Districts Andhra Pradesh

Anantapur, Chittoor, Cuddapah, Hyderabad, Kurnool, Mehaboobnagar, Nalgonda, Prakasam

Bihar Munger, Nawadah, Palamau, Rphtas, Bhojpur, Aurangabad, Gaya

Gujarat Ahmedabad, Amrely,Banaskanta, Bhavanagar, Bharuch, Jamnagar, Kheda, Kutch, Meshana, Panchmahal, Rajkot, Surendranagar

Haryana Bhiwani, Gurgao, Mahendragarh, Rohtak Jammu & Kashmir

Doda, Udhampur

Karnataka Bangalore, Belgaum, Bellary, Bijapur, Chitradurga, Chickmangalur, Dharwad, Gulbarga, Hassan, Kolar, Mandya, Mysore, Raichur, Tumkur

Madhya Pradesh

Betul, Datia, Dewas, Dhar, Jhabuva, Khandak, Khargaon, Shahdol, Shahjapur, Sidhi, Ujjain

Maharashtra Ahmednagar, Aurangabad, Beed, Nanded, Nashik, Osmanabad, Pune, Parbhani, Sangli, Satara, Sholapur

Orissa Phulbani, Kalakhandi, Bolangir, Kendrapada,

TYPES OF DROUGHTS Drought proceeds in sequential manner. Its impacts are spread across different domains as listed below.

Meteorological drought Meteorological drought is simple absence/deficit of rainfall from the normal. It is the least severe form of drought and is often identified by sunny days and hot weather.

Hydrological drought Meteorological drought often leads to reduction of natural stream flows or groundwater levels, plus stored water supplies. Main impact is on water resource systems.

Agricultural drought This form of drought occurs when moisture level in soils is insufficient to maintain average crop yields. Initial consequences are in the reduced seasonal

Fig. Map showing drought prone states in India.

Meteorological drought

Hydrological Drought

Agricultural Drought

Socioeconomic Drought

output of crops & other related production. An extreme agricultural drought can lead to a famine, which is a prolonged shortage of food in a restricted region causing widespread disease and death from starvation.

Socioeconomic drought Socioeconomic drought correlates the supply and demand of goods and services with the three above-mentioned types of drought. When the supply of some goods or services such as water and electricity are weather dependant then drought may cause shortages in supply of these economic goods. CAUSES OF DROUGHTS Shortage of rainfall coupled with its erratic distribution during rainy season causes severe water deficit conditions resulting in various intensities of droughts. In India, the seasonal rainfall (monsoon rains) over the Indian sub-continent is a global phenomena associated with large-scale hemispherical movement of air masses. Therefore, identification of the major atmospheric phenomenon that influences the monsoons over Indian sub-continent is essential in drought management research. Two such relationships, viz., (i) sea-surface temperature anomaly around the Indian sub-continent in relation to atmospheric circulation, and (ii) large-scale pressure oscillation in atmosphere over southern Pacific Ocean are found to be useful in this context. The El Nino event is one such phenomenon, which has profound influence on the monsoon activity over Indian sub-continent. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one important parameter in the predictive sixteen parameters model used by IMD for long-range forecasting purposes. The study of the Indian summer monsoon over the country by India Meteorological Department showed that all the drought years are El Nino years whereas all the El Nino years are not drought years indicating thereby that various other factors also equally influence the monsoon over the sub-continent. In this context, the winter circulation over the sub-continent, extended period of occurrence of western disturbances (late in the season), strengthening of heat low over NW India in summer and shifts in zonal cells over India are some of the important parameters that influence monsoon system over the country. Some of the researchers are of the opinion that the sea-surface temperature anomaly in the monsoon path is more important in predicting the monsoon rather than the pressure difference at far off places in the globe. Such studies have been initiated, but definite conclusions are yet to be arrived at. Therefore, successful prediction of monsoon over different parts of the country is still a problem and any progress in this direction will help in forewarning the occurrence of droughts. Common causes for drought in India Meteorology

• Inadequate monsoon rainfall.

• High temperature & evaporation,win

Water Resources

• Inadequate water availability, high water loss in storage & distribution,utilities.

Agriculture- Crop Yield

• Shift in agricultural practices(low to moderate

Population

• High greater rate of human & animals.

• Location of high water

d speed. • Unseasoned

rains & fog / snowfall.

• Over exploitation of surface & ground water.

water demand crops to high crops).

• Crop damage due to rain & snow / pest.

consuming milestones at semi arid / arid regions.

IMPACT OF DROUGHTS One of the sectors where the immediate impact of drought is felt is agriculture. With the increased intensity or extended duration of drought prevalence, a significant fall in food production is often noticed. Drought results in crop losses of different magnitude depending on their geographic incidence, intensity and duration. The droughts not only affect the food production at the farm level but also the national economy and the overall food security as well. Their impact is also felt due to: • Deficit in ground water recharge. • Non-availability of quality seeds. • Reduced draught power for agricultural operations due to distress sale of cattle, • Land degradation. • Fall in investment capacity of farmers, rice in prices, reduced grain trade, and

power supply. ISSUES AND STRATEGIES FOR EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT OF DROUGHTS The rainy period over greater part of the country is restricted to 3 to 4 months duration. Thus any small deviation in the occurrence of rainfall will adversely affect the normal activities in the biosphere. In a vast country like India with its varied climate, one or other part of the country experiences drought almost every year. However, its impacts can be minimized through development of better management techniques. Therefore, development of appropriate drought management strategy is of great importance and is currently addressed by the following mechanism and sectors: Governmental • Policy issues, national, regional and district level • Rural development infrastructure • Input supply, marketing and farm advisory services Non-Governmental • NGO's • Rural institutions, local self-governments • Private sector • Philanthropic organizations • Community codes (tribes, herders)

• International aid agencies • Alternate land use systems Research Development Institutions • Best practices for rain water and soil management through linking on-station and

on-farm research. • Weather forecasts • Contingency crop planning / mid-season corrections Research and development initiatives especially in areas like understanding the monsoon behaviour, Agrometeorology, arid / dryland farming systems and hydrology have since been contributing substantially to the knowledge base on drought management. These advancements have contributed the development of useful technological options and also infused dynamism in agricultural production strategies and development of appropriate farming systems. Of late, the drought management approach has shifted significantly in the region from crisis response to risk management through early warning systems, advance planning for emergency response and better preparedness. This paradigm shift in R & D strategy has since made some impact, yet the sustainability in rainfed areas is yet to be achieved. NEW APPROACHES AND METHODS A fresh look needs to be taken for greater research and development efforts focused to new tools and approaches as well as the required paradigm shift in technology development with the involvement of the clients and stakeholders. The new approach may comprise of the following areas:

• Development of early warning and expert systems • Mobilizing farmers: On-farm research and PTD in farming system research

perspective • Long-term strategy for development with emphasis on:

- Prevention, mitigation and preparedness for drought - Integrated watershed management rainwater harvesting - Soil and crop management approaches • Alternate land use systems � R & D strategy � Increased social security and better health

Drought Planning Reducing the risks and therefore the impacts associated with drought in the future requires that much grater emphasis be placed on preparedness and mitigation. Preparedness leads to greater institutional capacity to cope with drought events through the creation of an organizational structure that improves information flow and coordination between and within levels of government. Drought preparedness, coupled with appropriate mitigation actions and programs, can reduce and, in some cases, eliminate many of the impacts associated with drought. Drought planning process which has three components: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response, can be followed in the development of a drought preparedness plan. The monitoring and early warning

component of a drought plan is essentially provides the foundation on which timely decision can be made by decision makers at all levels (i.e., farmers to national policy makers). Given drought’s slow onset or creeping characteristics, monitoring all components of the hydrological system is the only mechanism for detecting drought’s early onset and its potential impacts on sectors, regions and populations groups. This information serves as the basis for management decision during both the developing and receding phases of drought, including the timing for the start-up and shut-down of mitigation and emergency response programs that are part of the drought preparedness plan.

Reducing Drought Impacts The approach to drought in the past has been generally reactive and response oriented, i.e. through crisis management. Critical issues that could be addressed as integral parts for reducing the impact of drought should include:

• Supporting and strengthening the programmes for the systematic collection and processing of meteorological and hydrological observations,

• Building and strengthening scientific networks for the enhancement of scientific and technical capacities in meteorology, hydrology and other related fields,

• Developing an inventory of water resources indicators and indices, • Development and dissemination of vulnerability/risk assessment tools • Vulnerability assessment under different environmental conditions, • Dissemination of drought planning methodologies that could be adopted by

drought-prone countries in the preparation of plans, • Transfer of appropriate technology to developing countries, • Improved understanding of the drought climatology (frequency, intensity, and

spatial extent) of drought patterns, • Understanding the principal causes of drought at local regional and global

levels, • Development of standardized products / indicators for specific use, including

hazards assessments, • Development of decision support models for the dissemination of drought-

related information to end users and appropriate methods for encourage feedback on climate and water supply assessment products,

• Improvement of the monitoring, modeling and prediction capacities and improved communication of how this information can be applied in decision support,

• Support all initiatives related to the promotion of Early Warning Systems, • Development of national and regional drought and disaster management

policies, • Support development of regional networks for drought preparedness that

would enhance regional capacity to share lessons learned in drought monitoring, prediction, preparedness, and policy development,

• Development of comprehensive drought reduction strategies that emphasize monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, mitigation, and response as an essential part of drought preparedness,

• Assessment of the availability of skilled human resources to be involved in drought preparedness planning,

• Education and awareness of policy makers and the public regarding the importance of improved drought preparedness as a part of integrated water resources management,

• Integration of local or indigenous coping mechanisms, • Enhancement of regional/international collaboration.

Success stories/case studies: What mitigation can do?

Ralegan Siddhi The people of Ralegan Siddhi in Maharashtra transformed the dire straits to prosperity. Twenty years ago the village showed all traits of abject poverty. It practically had no trees, the topsoil had blown off, there was no agriculture and people were jobless. Anna Hazare, one of the India's most noted social activists, started his movement concentrating on trapping every drop of rain, which is basically a drought mitigation practice.

Ralegan, before drought mitigation efforts

↓↓↓↓

Ralegan, after drought mitigation efforts

So the villagers built check dams and tanks. To conserve soil they planted trees. The result: from 80 acres of irrigated area two decades ago, Ralegan Siddhi has a massive area of 1300 acres under irrigation. The migration for jobs has stopped and the per capita income has increased ten times from Rs 225 to 2250 in this span of time. No World Bank funding, no-government grants - only people's enterprise. Source: http://www.rainwaterharvesting.org/catchwater/feb2001/photogallery.htm

Tarun Bharat Sangh is transforming rural Rajasthan! The work of Tarun Bharat Sangh, and it's founder Rajendra Singh in the districts of Rajasthan can easily be over-simplified as water-shed management whereas, it is in fact a revolution in regenerating life and society in denuded and deserted lands.

The villagers followed a simple two-step programme. First, revived vegetation on barren hill slopes and second, build small water catchments in the valleys and the plains. The first step was to identify water and fodder as the key to revival of rural life

in the ravaged lands of Alwar. To make both available round the year, micro-structures to trap water had to be built and the denuded hills allowed regenerating, unimpeded by animal browsing. TBS discovered that only peoples’ fullest cooperation can achieve these ends. The water harvesting structures called ‘Johad’ (water pond, see the picture on the side) were constructed with the consensus of villagers’ Gram Sabha. Every member of the village contributed either in terms of labour or money towards this collective effort. A social fencing was farmed by the villagers’ agreement to not let browsing by cows for 3 years, goats for 5 years and camel for 7 years to revive the denuded slopes in their village. People discussed on contentious issues for hours together and solved them in an amicable way. Fifteen years down the line, the villagers now sing the following song with joy and pride: “.... dead rivers begin to flow; .... agriculture becomes possible round the year; .... impoverished villagers, labouring in cities return, and families are re-united; .... wearying labour like fetching water, gives way to positive developmental work; .... with

enough water and fodder, income from animal-husbandry begins to flow; .... nutrition levels rise and public health improves; .... wooded hills welcome back wildlife, that round off forests' whole-ness; .... people rid of insecurities, come together to address other issues of life, like education and local governance; .... awareness and confidence, enable micro-credit schemes that lower the cost of households and start small enterprises; .... people with leisure, turn to crafts, reviving folk practices like herbal medicine and community welfare…” Well, it has happened in the space of 15 years in Rajasthan. Beginning from the small village of Bhikampura in Alwar district, the people-centred development model is spreading all over the state. Today you can see the river Arvari, dead for 40 years flow again. So too the rivers Ruparel, Jahjajwali and numerous other rivulets.

Denuded hills of Alwar

A Johad (water pond) constructed by the villagers

Restored slopes after five years!

Resources The following links will help you in advanced learning for understanding the drought risk management. You might want to suggest some of these sources to children as well! • Are you prepared (www.areyouparepared.com) • Center for Science and Environment (www.cseindia.org) • Center for Water Efficient Landscaping, Utah (http://www.hort.usu.edu/cwel/) • Central Arid Zone Research Institute (http://cazri.raj.nic.in) • Central ground water authority (http://www.cgwaindia.com/) • Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA)

(http://dryland.ap.nic.in/) • Crop Weather Outlook: http://www.cropweatheroutlook.org:8080/crida/ • Department of agriculture and cooperation (DOAC), Ministry of Agriculture

(MOA): http://agricoop.nic.in/drought/drought22.htm • DOAC, MOA, Weather Watch (http://agricoop.nic.in/weather.htm) • Down to Earth, CSE (http://www.downtoearth.org.in/water.htm) • Drought Monitoring Cell of Karnataka (http://dmc.kar.nic.in) • Drought Watch of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

(http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/). • Global vegetation health image map resources of NOAA (http://orbit-

net.nesdis.noaa.gov/crad/sat/surf/vci/) • IIT, Mumbai (http://www.csre.iitb.ac.in/rn/resume/drought/droughtindex.html) • Indian Council of Agricultural Research Drought Monitoring and Advisory

(http://www.icar.org.in/Drought/Drought00.htm) • Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute

(http://www.icar.org.in/igfri/index.html). • International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

(http://www.icarda.org/Theme3.htm) • International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

(http://www.icrisat.org/web/ASP/theme.asp?cid=2&ThemeId=3) • International Water Management Institutes (IWMI, http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org) • National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

(http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in) • National Climatic Data Center, NOAA (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html) • National Drought Mitigation Center (http://www.drought.unl.edu/) • National Informatics Center's (NIC) Weather Resource System for India

(http://www.weather.nic.in) • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)

(http://www.drought.noaa.gov/) • Rain water harvesting, CSE (http://www.rainwaterharvesting.org) • Rainwater club (http://www.rainwaterclub.org/) • Rainwater harvesting (http://www.aboutrainwaterharvesting.com/) • Texas University (http://agnews.tamu.edu/drought/) • United Stated Department of Agriculture

(http://disaster.usda.gov/drought_jump.htm) • Use it wisely (http://www.wateruseitwisely.com) • Water harvesting (waterharvesting.org) • Watershed management (www.watershedindia.net)