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Summer 2019Volume 2 | Issue 2
The Hazus Program is heading to Alaska, California, and DC to
stay engaged with the risk assessment community — Page 1
Learn to use Hazus for risk assessment with our new short video
series on YouTube — Page 2
Hazus partners with DHS Center of Excellence and NIST for latest
science in coastal and tornado risk modeling — Page 3
Hazus Tsunami Model Adapted for Risk Assessment in Israel
Bat Galim, Israel nearshore promenade and typical residential
buildings (Eran Frucht, 2018)
Researcher at the Geological Survey of Israel explores tsunami
impacts modeled on the Mediterranean using Hazus
Excerpt from Eran Frucht’s Master’s thesis adapted with
permission • Continued on Page 4
This work is part of the considerable efforts that is being done
in Israel, in recent years, to understand and mitigate tsunami
hazard. Tsunami loss estimates were analyzed for a residential
neighborhood on the Mediterranean coast of Israel called Bat Galim
in Haifa using the Hazus Tsunami Model. This case study can help
guide risk reduction efforts in Israel and establish best practices
for future adaptations of the Hazus Tsunami Model for areas outside
the U.S.
The Hazus methodology provides a detailed, state-of-the-art
tsunami loss estimation model designed for use in limited regions
of the U.S. with existing tsunami risk. The vulnerability component
of the Hazus model is represented by fragility curves classified
respect to: building type, seismic design level and number of
floors. The Hazus software default parameters are developed
according to US standards and codes, but since the research area
was in Israel, the Hazus fragility curves had to be adopted
according to local Israeli construction methods and design
codes.
A Closer Look at Hazus Fragility Curves
In order to understand the expected damage to building due to
tsunami hazard, parametric study of the Hazus fragility curves was
performed. This parametric study was used to compare the level of
damage for different fragility curves, due to a tsunami flow
momentum flux, which is correlated to the hydrodynamic forces
acting on a structure in case of a tsunami scenario. The findings
of the fragility curve study emphasize the significance of three
building’s parameters, on building resistance against tsunami
hydrodynamic loads, which are correlated with the tsunami flow
momentum flux. The three building parameters are: Model Building
Type (MBT), seismic design code and number of floors. A sensitivity
test revealed that tsunami loss assessed by the Hazus methodology
for Bat Galim is strongly dependent on the vulnerability component,
which is defined mainly by the building MBT, seismic design and the
building height.
Upcoming EventsSeptember2 FEMA Natural Hazards Risk Assessment
Program Flood Modeling Seminar Stockholm, Sweden
11 Civic Software Demo DayPortland, OR
24 Alaska Earthquake SymposiumAnchorage, AK
November11 FEMA Region IX Earthquake Risk Assessment Workshop
Oakland, CA
30 Hazus Program Releases New Risk Assessment
Tools!fema.gov/hazus
December3 FEMA Risk Management Directorate WorkshopWashington,
DC
9 American Geophysical Union Annual MeetingSan Francisco, CA
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Hazus Quarterly Newsletter Page 1 September 5, 2019
https://twitter.com/HazusProgrammailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSFEMA/subscriber/new?topic_id=USDHSFEMA1151
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Hazus Partners with Coastal Resilience Center for Improved
Coastal Risk Modeling
Hazus Program and Coastal Resilience Center staff tour the FEMA
National Recovery Coordination Center, June 2019
A workshop in June 2019 aimed to integrate latest science &
technology in Hazus coastal risk assessments
Hazus Program staff met with members of the Coastal Resilience
Center (CRC) – a Department of Homeland Security Center of
Excellence led by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill –
during a 2-day workshop in Washington, D.C. in June. CRC
researchers presented the latest coastal modeling data and methods
for incorporation into Hazus, including new fragility functions,
real-time flood hazard measurement, and cloud hosting resources for
response-ready hazard information. The CRC has begun developing new
coastal flood fragility functions for a small subset of structure
types using fluid-structure interactions measured by both lab
simulations and mathematical models. Integrating these updated
fragility functions into Hazus will improve the accuracy and
applicability of coastal damage data generated by Hazus by better
defining the complex relationship between surge flooding, wave
actions, and the built environment.
The Hazus Program is working closely with CRC researchers and
FEMA coastal engineering staff to validate damage and losses
estimated using new fragility functions developed by the CRC using
detailed impact data collected during Hurricane Ike in Galveston,
Texas. Validated fragility curves can then be incorporated into
Hazus analytical models for use by coastal risk analysts. A similar
collaborative process will be followed as the CRC expands their
fragility curve development to include a wider range of building
types found along the coastal U.S.
The CRC also researches applications for the Advanced
Circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model, which incorporates wind
speed, rain, atmospheric pressure, and elevation data to map
forecasted and real-time coastal flooding during major U.S. storms.
ADCIRC hazard data are made available to emergency managers and
risk analysts through the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA)
web portal. The Hazus Program is now partnering with the ADCIRC
team to validate coastal flood data generated by the ADCIRC model
for Hurricane Michael and to create a dynamic link between Hazus
and hazard data from ADCIRC and CERA. This work will make another
source of coastal flood hazard data (in addition to National
Hurricane Center data) available for direct input in Hazus loss
modeling. The partnership established between the Hazus Program and
the CRC ensures that the latest coastal modeling science becomes
available to the public for risk assessments that drive effective
risk management decisions.
Learn Hazus on YouTube! The Hazus Program published a series of
short training videos on YouTube to help both new and experienced
analysts learn how to use Hazus for risk assessments. Videos are
grouped into topical playlists:
Did Hazus training videos help you? Do you have ideas for
additional training videos we should publish? Let us know at
[email protected] or @HazusProgram on Twitter.
@HazusProgram
Hazus Quarterly Newsletter Page 2 September 5, 2019
mailto:[email protected]://twitter.com/HazusProgramhttps://twitter.com/HazusProgram
A workshop in June 2019 aimed to integrate latest science &
technology in Hazus coastal risk assessments
Hazus Program staff met with members of the Coastal Resilience
Center (CRC) – a Department of Homeland Security Center of
Excellence led by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill –
during a 2-day workshop in Washington, D.C. in June. CRC
researchers presented the latest coastal modeling data and methods
for incorporation into Hazus, including new fragility functions,
real-time flood hazard measurement, and cloud hosting resources for
response-ready hazard information. The CRC has begun developing new
coastal flood fragility functions for a small subset of structure
types using fluid-structure interactions measured by both lab
simulations and mathematical models. Integrating these updated
fragility functions into Hazus will improve the accuracy and
applicability of coastal damage data generated by Hazus by better
defining the complex relationship between surge flooding, wave
actions, and the built environment.
The Hazus Program is working closely with CRC researchers and
FEMA coastal engineering staff to validate damage and losses
estimated using new fragility functions developed by the CRC using
detailed impact data collected during Hurricane Ike in Galveston,
Texas. Validated fragility curves can then be incorporated into
Hazus analytical models for use by coastal risk analysts. A similar
collaborative process will be followed as the CRC expands their
fragility curve development to include a wider range of building
types found along the coastal U.S.
The CRC also researches applications for the Advanced
Circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model, which incorporates wind
speed, rain, atmospheric pressure, and elevation data to map
forecasted and real-time coastal flooding during major U.S. storms.
ADCIRC hazard data are made available to emergency managers and
risk analysts through the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA)
web portal. The Hazus Program is now partnering with the ADCIRC
team to validate coastal flood data generated by the ADCIRC model
for Hurricane Michael and to create a dynamic link between Hazus
and hazard data from ADCIRC and CERA. This work will make another
source of coastal flood hazard data (in addition to National
Hurricane Center data) available for direct input in Hazus loss
modeling. The partnership established between the Hazus Program and
the CRC ensures that the latest coastal modeling science becomes
available to the public for risk assessments that drive effective
risk management decisions.
-
Jesse Rozelle (FEMA Hazus Program Manager, left) meets with Marc
Levitan (NIST Windstorm Impact Reduction Program Director, right)
at NIST HQ in Washington, DC, June 2019
Hazus Tornado: Partnering with the National Institute of
Standards & Technology for Long-Term Research In recent years,
researchers from the National Institute of Standards and Technology
(NIST) have improved the data and methods available for tornado
hazard mapping and damage modeling – an effort driven in part by
the collection of extensive post-disaster field data following the
2011 tornado in Joplin, MO.
This new research will contribute to the inclusion of updated
tornado hazard maps and tornado-resistant design standards in
nationally accepted criteria published by the American Society of
Civil Engineers. The Hazus Program is collaborating with NIST for a
long-term research project aimed at developing a Hazus Tornado
model for use in risk assessments, mitigation planning, and
disaster response. Program leaders laid out initial research steps
at an inter-agency Tornado Hazard Maps Workshop in May and during a
visit to NIST headquarters in June. Agencies are working to
exchange data requirements for tornado hazard measurements and
building characteristics used in Hazus damage estimation, as well
as exploring the
relationship between safe room construction and casualties.
Hazus Tornado modeling capabilities will help drive increased
preparedness and tornado-resistant construction across the U.S. by
enabling communities to better understand their tornado risk.
Ongoing Challenges for Nationwide Flood Risk Information Hazus
Program researchers teamed up with engineers from the Pacific
Northwest National Lab (PNNL) to explore the feasibility of
generating a nationwide, multi-return period flood depth grid.
Depths for the 100-year flood event were generated using both Hazus
and PNNL methodologies for Minot, ND to compare the range, spatial
distribution and computational speed associated with depths from
each approach.
Economic losses were then calculated for each flood depth
dataset using the Hazus Flood Assessment Structure Tool in order to
characterize the sensitivity of risk assessment to differences in
flood hazard inputs. Results from this comparative case study were
presented at the Natural Hazards Center Annual Workshop in
Broomfield, Colorado in July 2019. Check out the poster summary
here!
Next steps for Hazus Program nationwide flood hazard research
include expanding this comparative analysis to include additional
locations across the U.S. as well as 100-year flood depths
generated by FEMA floodplain studies. If flood depths developed by
the Hazus Program and PNNL are shown to be reasonably accurate when
compared with FEMA regulatory data, the collaborative methodology
can be employed to generate continuous flood hazard information for
a majority of the U.S., dramatically expanding the use of
data-driven risk assessments in mitigation planning.
Casey Zuzak (Hazus Team), Jordan Burns (Hazus Team), and David
Judi (PNNL) present at the Natural Hazards Center Annual Workshop
in Colorado, July 2019
Program Manager’s Corner
@HazusProgram
Hazus Quarterly Newsletter Page 3 September 5, 2019
https://twitter.com/HazusProgram
Hazus Tornado: Partnering with the National Institute of
Standards & Technology for Long-Term Research
In recent years, researchers from the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST) have improved the data and methods
available for tornado hazard mapping and damage modeling – an
effort driven in part by the collection of extensive post-disaster
field data following the 2011 tornado in Joplin, MO.
This new research will contribute to the inclusion of updated
tornado hazard maps and tornado-resistant design standards in
nationally accepted criteria published by the American Society of
Civil Engineers. The Hazus Program is collaborating with NIST for a
long-term research project aimed at developing a Hazus Tornado
model for use in risk assessments, mitigation planning, and
disaster response. Program leaders laid out initial research steps
at an inter-agency Tornado Hazard Maps Workshop in May and during a
visit to NIST headquarters in June. Agencies are working to
exchange data requirements for tornado hazard measurements and
building characteristics used in Hazus damage estimation, as well
as exploring the relationship between safe room construction and
casualties. Hazus Tornado modeling capabilities will help drive
increased preparedness and tornado-resistant construction across
the U.S. by enabling communities to better understand their tornado
risk.
Jesse Rozelle (FEMA Hazus Program Manager, left) meets with Marc
Levitan (NIST Windstorm Impact Reduction Program Director, right)
at NIST HQ in Washington, DC, June 2019
Ongoing Challenges for Nationwide Flood Risk Information
Hazus Program researchers teamed up with engineers from the
Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) to explore the feasibility of
generating a nationwide, multi-return period flood depth grid.
Depths for the 100-year flood event were generated using both Hazus
and PNNL methodologies for Minot, ND to compare the range, spatial
distribution and computational speed associated with depths from
each approach.
Economic losses were then calculated for each flood depth
dataset using the Hazus Flood Assessment Structure Tool in order to
characterize the sensitivity of risk assessment to differences in
flood hazard inputs. Results from this comparative case study were
presented at the Natural Hazards Center Annual Workshop in
Broomfield, Colorado in July 2019. Check out the poster summary
here!
Casey Zuzak (Hazus Team), Jordan Burns (Hazus Team), and David
Judi (PNNL) present at the Natural Hazards Center Annual Workshop
in Colorado, July 2019
Next steps for Hazus Program nationwide flood hazard research
include expanding this comparative analysis to include additional
locations across the U.S. as well as 100-year flood depths
generated by FEMA floodplain studies. If flood depths developed by
the Hazus Program and PNNL are shown to be reasonably accurate when
compared with FEMA regulatory data, the collaborative methodology
can be employed to generate continuous flood hazard information for
a majority of the U.S., dramatically expanding the use of
data-driven risk assessments in mitigation planning.
-
(Continued from Cover) Out of the three examined building types,
C2 (reinforced concrete moment resisting frame) was found to be the
most resistant, and C3 (concrete frame with unreinforced masonry
infill walls) found to be the least resistant. It can be concluded
that for moderate and high seismic codes, the building resistance
to tsunami momentum flux is multiplied if a higher seismic design
level is used. Generally, higher buildings show greater resistance
to tsunami momentum flux. Comparison between the fragility curves
showed that the resistance of buildings with less than three
stories is very sensitive to variation of the momentum flux, so
that a small change in the momentum flux can increase the damage
state from moderate to complete. These understandings support the
argument that vertical evacuation of population should be
considered for building with at least four floors and modern code.
The findings of the fragility curve parametric study contributed to
the refining of the Bat Galim datasets. Structural damage due to
tsunami is also influenced by the configuration of the lower floor
levels. For example, buildings that are open at their base so that
water can flow through the building, greatly reduce hydrodynamics
forces acting on the structure. Hazus methodology assumes that each
model building type is closed at its base, so that maximum
hydrodynamic forces are considered. In addition, the tsunami damage
functions assume that prior to foundation failure, hydrodynamic
loads will cause complete damage to the structural system, so the
effects of erosion and scour are not explicitly included in the
damage functions. Since developing local fragility curves for
Israel requires great resources, it is recommended to adopt Hazus
suggested damage functions, while reasonable effort should be put
into adoption of the vulnerability parameters according to local
conditions. These Hazus fragility curve parametric investigation
findings contributed to the refining of Bat Galim datasets, the
planning of the Bat Galim Hazus model sensitivity tests, and
hopefully will serve other Hazus users trying to adopt Hazus
fragility curves as part of tsunami loss assessment
methodology.
Expected Tsunami Casualties in Bat Galim
Analysis of the Hazus casualty model shows that population
preparedness level was found to have great influence on the
probability of the population’s survival and can save hundreds of
lives in case of a tsunami. Thus, it is recommended to increase
community readiness for tsunami that can be obtained for example by
emergency loud speakers, preparation of evacuation routes and
signs, and education of the community’s tsunami risk level
awareness. Future models should consider additional population in
the neighborhood (such as: visitors, day workers, etc.), and
vertical evacuation alternative, which can be useful evacuation
strategy. Therefore, a Bat Galim level 2 Hazus Maximum tsunami
indundation at buildings in casualty model – which can take into
consideration Bat Galim for the Cyprus tsunami scenario (feet)
additional population, cross land evacuation and vertical
evacuation – should be developed for future Hazus casualty
models.
Conclusions
Bat Galim tsunami model show that the potential loss for the
population in a Cyprus tsunami hazard scenario is severe and must
be considered. The preparedness of the population for tsunami can
play great role in mitigating the tsunami damage and is relativity
easy to implement, compared to upgrading buildings against tsunami.
Future casualty models should include vertical evacuation and
additional population consideration, as proposed by the Hazus level
2 casualty model. The significance of the Bat Galim loss estimation
presented in this work is rooted in the development of
methodologies, tools and data-sets required to evaluate tsunami
damage and its components for the first time in Israel. The
workflow and datasets developed for the Hazus model, together with
the findings of the Bat Galim loss assessments, will be used for a
broader scope of tsunami risk assessment efforts along the entire
Mediterranean coast of Israel.
Hazus Quarterly Newsletter Page 4 September 5, 2019
(Continued from Cover) Out of the three examined building types,
C2 (reinforced concrete moment resisting frame) was found to be the
most resistant, and C3 (concrete frame with unreinforced masonry
infill walls) found to be the least resistant. It can be concluded
that for moderate and high seismic codes, the building resistance
to tsunami momentum flux is multiplied if a higher seismic design
level is used. Generally, higher buildings show greater resistance
to tsunami momentum flux. Comparison between the fragility curves
showed that the resistance of buildings with less than three
stories is very sensitive to variation of the momentum flux, so
that a small change in the momentum flux can increase the damage
state from moderate to complete. These understandings support the
argument that vertical evacuation of population should be
considered for building with at least four floors and modern code.
The findings of the fragility curve parametric study contributed to
the refining of the Bat Galim datasets. Structural damage due to
tsunami is also influenced by the configuration of the lower floor
levels. For example, buildings that are open at their base so that
water can flow through the building, greatly reduce hydrodynamics
forces acting on the structure. Hazus methodology assumes that each
model building type is closed at its base, so that maximum
hydrodynamic forces are considered. In addition, the tsunami damage
functions assume that prior to foundation failure, hydrodynamic
loads will cause complete damage to the structural system, so the
effects of erosion and scour are not explicitly included in the
damage functions. Since developing local fragility curves for
Israel requires great resources, it is recommended to adopt Hazus
suggested damage functions, while reasonable effort should be put
into adoption of the vulnerability parameters according to local
conditions. These Hazus fragility curve parametric investigation
findings contributed to the refining of Bat Galim datasets, the
planning of the Bat Galim Hazus model sensitivity tests, and
hopefully will serve other Hazus users trying to adopt Hazus
fragility curves as part of tsunami loss assessment
methodology.
Expected Tsunami Casualties in Bat Galim
Analysis of the Hazus casualty model shows that population
preparedness level was found to have great influence on the
probability of the population’s survival and can save hundreds of
lives in case of a tsunami. Thus, it is recommended to increase
community readiness for tsunami that can be obtained for example by
emergency loud speakers, preparation of evacuation routes and
signs, and education of the community’s tsunami risk level
awareness. Future models should consider additional population in
the neighborhood (such as: visitors, day workers, etc.), and
vertical evacuation alternative, which can be useful evacuation
strategy. Therefore, a Bat Galim level 2 Hazus casualty model –
which can take into consideration additional population, cross land
evacuation and vertical evacuation – should be developed for future
Hazus casualty models.
Maximum tsunami indundation at buildings in Bat Galim for the
Cyprus tsunami scenario (feet)
Conclusions
Bat Galim tsunami model show that the potential loss for the
population in a Cyprus tsunami hazard scenario is severe and must
be considered. The preparedness of the population for tsunami can
play great role in mitigating the tsunami damage and is relativity
easy to implement, compared to upgrading buildings against tsunami.
Future casualty models should include vertical evacuation and
additional population consideration, as proposed by the Hazus level
2 casualty model. The significance of the Bat Galim loss estimation
presented in this work is rooted in the development of
methodologies, tools and data-sets required to evaluate tsunami
damage and its components for the first time in Israel. The
workflow and datasets developed for the Hazus model, together with
the findings of the Bat Galim loss assessments, will be used for a
broader scope of tsunami risk assessment efforts along the entire
Mediterranean coast of Israel.
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4
