FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY TRENDS

IN MTPLAlexandra Vetter | Danijela Ziser

08.11.2018

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018 1

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563

488

1076

156

491

750

239

1235

4998

615

679

1397

222

557

436

267

1633

5806

0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000

Austria

Bosnia & Hercegovina

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Slovenia

Serbia

Other countries

Total

2017 2014

Green Card claims of Croatian drivers

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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Trucks play a substantial role in the increase of Green Card claims

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million tonne-kilometer (Truck portfolio)

European Union (28 countries) Bulgaria Czech Republic Croatia Hungary Poland Romania

Croatia

Bulgaria

Source: EUROSTAT

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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Top 15 Green Card Claims from Austria and CEE 2007-2017

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Finland

France

Germany

Germany

Ireland

United Kingdom

Italy

Finland

United Kingdom

Romania

France

Italy

Poland

Finland

Italy

France

Italy

Italy

Italy

Millions

Cl

Source: Swiss Re data base

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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Long-term yields at all time lows, supported by ultra-low interest rates central banks policy

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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UK Examples of Model cases

• 24 male student,

• with brain injuries • 9 Years old girl,

• highschool,

• future academic

career ?,

• with severe injuries

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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Severe immediate claim effect after Ogden discount rate decrease in UK

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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Total claim costs in Europe as per 2012 and per 2017Tetraplegia claims scenario, Disability Factor 100 %

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Poland

Slovakia

Spain

Finland

Italy

Czech Republic

Switzerland

Austria

Belgium

Germany

France

UK

Millions EUR

loss of earnings assistance pain and suffering remainder

0 5 10 15 20 25

Denmark

Sweden

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Spain

Czech Republic

Italy

Belgium

Switzerland

France

Germany

UK

Millions EUR

loss of earnings assistance pain and suffering remainder

2012 2017

1

0

Key Drivers in Increase of Severe Bodily Injury Claims

Trend: Amounts for (MTPL) bodily injury claims are rising

Capitalization tables

Improved welfare

Increased claims awarenessLife Expectancy

Exploding Nursing/Healthcare costs

Legal Changes

Interest rates

e.g. Ogden

Source: Swiss Re data base

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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What does this mean for Croatia?

More traffic in all European countries leads to

more frequency and severity in claims with a

potential to increased MTPL claims

Frequency and severity trends in MTPL | Alexandra Vetter, Danijela Ziser | 8.11.2018

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