Headlines Jobseekers Allowance Claimant Count Keynes... · NB: From April 2017 the SEMLEP figures reflect the new LEP geography following the merger of SEMLEP ... 140 Programmers

1

Milton Keynes Employment October 2018

Headlines

The JSA claimant count rate in was 1.3% Milton Keynes in October 2018. This remains unchanged from September 2018 but is 0.2% higher than in October 2017.

There were 2,186 JSA claimants in Milton Keynes in October 2018. This is a decrease of 27 persons from September 2018.

Milton Keynes has a JSA claimant count rate of 1.3%, this is above both the national (UK) rate of 0.9% and the regional (South East) rate of 0.5%.

Jobseekers Allowance Claimant Count

The unemployment claimant count measures all people recorded by the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) receiving Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) each month. Table 1: Milton Keynes Claimant Count 2017-18

Source: Jobseekers Allowance, Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate

October 2017 1,038 1.2 880 1.0 1,918 1.1

September 2018 1,284 1.5 929 1.1 2,213 1.3

October 2018 1,294 1.5 892 1.0 2,186 1.3

Male Female TotalDate

Milton Keynes Employment

October 2018

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Table 2: Milton Keynes, Comparators & SEMLEP Claimant Count, October 2018

Source: Jobseekers Allowance, Office for National Statistics via NOMIS NB: From April 2017 the SEMLEP figures reflect the new LEP geography following the merger of SEMLEP and NEP

Between the months of October 2018 and September 2018, Milton Keynes has seen its claimant count decrease to 2,186 persons. With a claimant rate of 1.3%, Milton Keynes is above the national rate of 0.9%, the SEMLEP rate of 0.9% and the regional rate of 0.5%.


Bedford 382 0.7 282 0.5 664 0.6

Central Bedfordshire 592 0.7 414 0.5 1,006 0.6

Luton 1,147 1.6 868 1.3 2,015 1.5

Peterborough 181 0.3 218 0.4 399 0.3

Milton Keynes 1,294 1.5 892 1.0 2,186 1.3

Reading 369 0.7 231 0.4 600 0.5

Slough 249 0.5 169 0.4 418 0.4

Corby 35 0.2 56 0.3 91 0.2

Daventry 60 0.2 57 0.2 117 0.2

Northampton 1,254 1.7 942 1.3 2,196 1.5

South Northamptonshire 136 0.5 92 0.3 228 0.4

Wellingborough 384 1.6 288 1.2 672 1.4

Kettering 456 1.5 364 1.2 820 1.3

Aylesbury Vale 441 0.7 328 0.5 769 0.6

Cherwell 57 0.1 55 0.1 112 0.1

South East Midlands 6,379 1.0 4,757 0.8 11,136 0.9

South East 17,819 0.6 12,747 0.5 30,566 0.5

United Kingdom 216,164 1.0 144,069 0.7 360,233 0.9

Male TotalArea

Female


October 2018

3

Table 3: Unemployment by age as a proportion of total unemployment, October 2018

Source: Jobseekers Allowance, Office for National Statistics via NOMIS

In October 2018, young people (18-24 years) made up 12.4% of all JSA claimants in Milton Keynes. This compares to around 11.2% for the South East region and 12.0% in the UK. Table 4: Unemployment Claimant Count by Age & Duration in Milton Keynes, October 2018


1.5% of all 18-24 year olds were claiming JSA in October 2018. This is above the rate for the total working age population (16-64 years).

UKSouth

East

Number Rate Rate Rate

Aged 17 and under 5 0.3 0.0 0.1

Aged 18-19 90 4.1 3.3 3.4

Aged 20-24 180 8.3 8.7 7.8

Aged 25-29 225 10.4 10.4 9.4

Aged 30-34 265 12.1 11.2 10.2

Aged 35-39 265 12.0 10.8 10.1

Aged 40-44 255 11.7 10.1 10.2

Aged 45-49 280 12.9 11.4 11.6

Aged 50-54 230 10.4 12.0 12.9

Aged 55-59 200 9.2 11.4 12.5

Aged 60 and over 185 8.5 10.7 11.8

AreaMilton Keynes


Aged 16-64 2,185 1.3 375 0.2 590 0.3

Aged 18-24 270 1.5 45 0.3 20 0.1

Aged 25-49 1,290 1.3 225 0.2 350 0.4

Aged 50-64 615 1.3 105 0.2 220 0.5

AgeTotal

Over 6 months and

up to a yearOver 1 year


October 2018

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Table 5: Ward Unemployment in Milton Keynes, October 2018


In October 2018, there were eight wards within Milton Keynes with JSA claimant unemployment rates above the borough average of 1.3%. Levels of unemployment were highest in the wards of Woughton and Fishermead (2.8%), Bletchley East (2.1%) and Central Milton Keynes (1.7%).

Area

Number Rate

Milton Keynes 2,186 1.3

Bletchley East 180 2.1

Bletchley Park 156 1.7

Bletchley West 115 1.3

Bradwell 125 1.5

Broughton 54 0.6

Campbell Park & Old Woughton 97 1.1

Central Milton Keynes 207 1.7

Danesborough & Walton 66 0.8

Loughton & Shenley 76 0.8

Monkston 68 0.8

Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope 40 0.6

Newport Pagnell South 65 0.9

Olney 50 0.7

Shenley Brook End 108 1.1

Stantonbury 153 1.5

Stony Stratford 100 1.6

Tattenhoe 57 0.7

Wolverton 148 1.4

Woughton & Fishermead 321 2.8

Total claimants


October 2018

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Chart 1: JSA Claimant Rate Milton Keynes, South East & UK October 2007 - October 2018

Source: Jobseekers Allowance, Office for National Statistics via NOMIS. NB: Claimant count data is taken from October of each year.

Chart 1 demonstrates that the JSA claimant count in Milton Keynes has been on a downward trend in recent years. However, October 2018 saw an increase in the number of individuals claiming JSA; this trend is not repeated in the national or the regional figures. The JSA claimant rate in the South East region remains consistently below the national and Milton Keynes rates.

Milton

KeynesUK

South

East

October 2007 1.7 2.0 1.2

October 2008 2.4 2.4 1.5

October 2009 4.5 3.9 2.8

October 2010 3.5 3.5 2.3

October 2011 3.9 3.8 2.5

October 2012 3.4 3.8 2.4

October 2013 2.6 3.1 1.9

October 2014 1.8 2.2 1.2

October 2015 1.5 1.6 1.0

October 2016 1.1 1.3 0.8

October 2017 1.1 1.1 0.7

October 2018 1.3 0.9 0.5


October 2018

6

Universal Credit Since November 2015, individuals of working age looking for work or on low incomes in Milton Keynes are eligible to claim Universal Credit. Universal Credit is a single monthly payment which is replacing six existing benefits, including Jobseekers Allowance. Universal Credit is being introduced in stages and, over the coming years, all those on low incomes or seeking work will move from their existing benefits to Universal Credit. In Milton Keynes, individuals who have recently become unemployed may be required to claim Universal Credit rather than JSA. Experimental statistics are now available for a claimant count that consists of both JSA claimants (published by Nomis) and those who are claiming Universal Credit and are out of work (published by the Department for Work and Pensions). However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently released the following statement: “Due to the impact that Universal Credit is having on the Claimant Count, ONS has decided, with effect from the Labour Market Statistics releases to be published on 15 March 2017, to remove the Claimant Count series from the UK and Regional Statistical Bulletins, as it may now be providing a misleading representation of the UK labour market.” 23rd February 2017

The reason for this is that under Universal Credit a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseekers Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out in particular areas, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise. Table 6: Jobseekers Allowance and Universal Credit (those out of work) claimants, 2013- 2018

Source: Claimant Count, Office for National Statistics via NOMIS. NB: Claimant count data is taken from October of each year, unless otherwise stated. Data for the previous month is also subject to revision so figures may differ to those shown in earlier unemployment reports.

As the table above shows, the claimant count increases to 2,605 when those who are out of work and claiming Universal Credit are included. This equates to a claimant rate of 1.5%. This is below the claimant rate for the UK (2.3%) but above the rate for the South East (1.4%).

DateNumber of Claimants

MK

Claimant Count MK

(As a proportion of all

residents 16-64 MK)

Claimant Count UK (As

a proportion of all

residents 16-64 UK)

Claimant Count South

East (As a proportion

of all residents 16-64

SE)

2013 4,290 2.6 3.1 1.9

2014 3,090 1.8 2.2 1.2

2015 2,555 1.5 1.8 1.0

2016 2,405 1.4 1.8 1.1

2017 2,575 1.5 1.9 1.2

September 2018 2,635 1.5 2.2 1.4

October 2018 2,605 1.5 2.3 1.4


October 2018

7

Job Postings

Labour Insight is a tool which monitors the jobs posted by employers on job search websites. According to this, there were 4,159 job postings across the Milton Keynes local authority area in October 2018. This compares to 4,274 job postings in September 2018. The most commonly advertised occupations across Milton Keynes were customer service occupations n.e.c. (150 postings); sales related occupations n.e.c (140 postings); and programmers and software development professionals (121 postings). Chart 2: Top occupations in Milton Keynes, based on job postings, October 2018

Source: Labour Insight


October 2018

8

Comparing Milton Keynes with other areas within SEMLEP and comparator areas shows that Milton Keynes had the second highest number of job postings in October 2018.

Chart 3: Highest Number of Job Postings in SEMLEP local authorities and comparator areas, October 2018

Source: Labour Insight. NB: The figure in the graph above relates to postings that state Milton Keynes. A number of postings stated Newport Pagnell or Olney. The figures for Newport Pagnell and Olney are however included in the occupational figures in chart 2.


October 2018

9

When comparing Milton Keynes with Reading and Northampton (the two closest comparator areas to Milton Keynes in terms of number of job postings) and with England as a whole, there is commonality this month amongst the types of job opportunity advertised. Sales related occupations; programmers and software development professionals; and Customer service occupations are amongst the six occupations to feature in each of the top ten common job postings. Table 7: Top 10 Occupations by Job Postings, October 2018

Source: Labour Insight

Customer service

occupations n.e.c.150

Sales related


Other administrative


Sales related

occupations n.e.c.21,092

Sales related


Programmers and

software

development

professionals

192Sales related


Programmers and

software

development

professionals

17,651

Programmers and

software

development

professionals

121

Human resources and

industrial relations

officers

172Elementary storage

occupations102





Marketing and sales

directors143

Customer service

occupations n.e.c.94 Nurses 15,886

Human resources and


officers

107Other administrative


Human resources and


officers

70Customer service


Managers and

proprietors in other

services n.e.c.

98 Nurses 110 Nurses 70

Managers and


services n.e.c.

12,945

IT user support

technicians90

Managers and


services n.e.c.

107Large goods vehicle

drivers63

Care workers and

home carers11,654

Elementary storage

occupations80

IT user support

technicians99

Programmers and

software

development

63Marketing and sales

directors11,184

Marketing associate

professionals77

Customer service


Marketing and sales

directors60

Human resources and


officers

10,705

Marketing and sales

directors75

Chartered and

certified accountants89

Care workers and

home carers53

Teaching and other

educational

professionals n.e.c.

10,595

Milton Keynes Reading Northampton England


October 2018

10

Based on the requirements contained within job postings, Labour Insight is able to collate information on the skills that are being sought by recruiting employers. Skills relating to customer service, teamwork/collaboration, sales and budgeting are amongst those most in demand. Chart 4: Skills most sought by recruiting employers in Milton Keynes, October 2018

Source: Labour Insight. NB: approximately 37% of records have been excluded because they do not include a skill in the posting. As a result, the chart above may not be representative of the full sample.


October 2018

11

Apprenticeships

The number of apprenticeship vacancies, as advertised on the National Apprenticeship Service website, is collated monthly by SEMLEP. In October 2018, 998 apprenticeships were advertised across the South East Midlands LEP area. Of these, 206 (20.6%) were in the Milton Keynes local authority area. The majority of advertised apprenticeships in Milton Keynes are at the intermediate level (97). Very few vacancies are at higher or degree level. In respect of apprenticeship frameworks/standards, the highest number of vacancies in October 2018 was in Digital Industries (43 vacancies). Table 8: Apprenticeship vacancies by level, October 2018

Source: ESFA, provided by SEMLEP

Chart 5: Apprenticeships by Framework/Standard Sector, October 2018

Source: ESFA, provided by SEMLEP

Level

Number of

vacancies

Intermediate (equivalent to GCSE) 97

Advanced (equivalent to A-level) 90

Higher (foundation degree and above) 19

Degree 0

Masters 0

All 206


October 2018

12

Annual Population Survey & Not in Education, Employment or Training Data

The Annual Population Survey (APS) unemployment statistic is a broader measure than the JSA claimant count. The claimant count is an administrative measure of those claiming Jobseekers Allowance. The APS is a survey based measure, over three month periods, which uses the internationally agreed definition of unemployment as recommended by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The ILO counts the following as unemployed:

- Those without a job who want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks

- Those who are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.

APS data is released every three months and is based on an average of the previous twelve months’ data. As such, it is not statistically valid to compare APS estimates for periods under twelve months apart. As the unemployed form a small percentage of the population, the APS unemployment estimates within local authorities are based on very small samples and so for many areas can be unreliable. To overcome this, the Office for National Statistics developed a statistical model to provide a more accurate estimate of total unemployment at the local authority level. The model-based estimate improves on the APS estimate by borrowing strength from the measure of those claiming Jobseeker's Allowance to produce an estimate that is more precise (i.e. has a smaller confidence interval)1. Model based unemployment figures however are not available by age or gender. Given the potential issues with reliability, only the overall model based figures of unemployment are included within this report. The unemployment figures by age and gender from the APS can be found on the Nomis website, www.nomisweb.co.uk APS data for January 2017 to December 2017 was published on 18 April 2018 and this information is included in the report below. To avoid making comparisons with earlier quarters which would not be statistically valid and which may paint an inaccurate picture of patterns of employment in Milton Keynes, APS figures will only be updated annually, in the employment report published in April. APS data for other quarterly periods is also available on the Nomis website, www.nomisweb.co.uk.

1 For greater detail on the methodology behind the APS see http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-

method/method-quality/specific/labour-market/subnational-labour/model-based-estimates-of-ilo-unemployment-for-lad-uas-in-great-britain---guide-for-users.pdf

http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/labour-market/subnational-labour/model-based-estimates-of-ilo-unemployment-for-lad-uas-in-great-britain---guide-for-users.pdf




October 2018

13

Table 9: APS Unemployment 2017

Unemployment count (model based)

Unemployment rate (model based)

number percentage

Milton Keynes 5,800 4.1

UK 1,463,500 4.4

South East 149,900 3.2 Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS Unemployment estimates for local

authority areas except county councils are model-based. Estimates for other geography types are not model-based and are taken directly from the Annual Population Survey dataset.

According to the model based estimates of unemployment, the unemployment rate in Milton Keynes stood at 4.1% or 5,800 individuals in 2017. However, this is based on a sample. The number of individuals is subject to a confidence interval of 1,400 which means the actual number of unemployed individuals falls within 4,400 and 7,200. With a confidence interval of 1.0%, the actual percentage can be expected to fall within 3.1% and 5.1%.

Chart 6: APS Unemployment Rate (model based) Milton Keynes, UK & South East 2008-2017

MK UK SE

2008 5.0 5.7 4.4

2009 8.5 7.6 5.9

2010 8.6 7.6 6.0

2011 7.3 8.0 5.9

2012 8.3 7.9 6.0

2013 7.5 7.5 5.7

2014 6.4 6.2 4.8

2015 5.1 5.3 4.2

2016 4.3 4.9 4.0

2017 4.1 4.4 3.2 Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics via NOMIS

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

rate

, 16

+ (%

)

Year

Milton Keynes

UK

South East


October 2018

14

Model based unemployment in Milton Keynes has generally been on a downward trend but has fluctuated above and below the national rate. The rate in Milton Keynes remains consistently higher than the regional rate.

Chart 7: Employment Rates by Gender

Employment Rate (% 16-64 years)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Milton Keynes Total 73.7 73.4 73.6 77.1 76.0 77.2

Milton Keynes Males 78.1 78.0 77.3 80.5 81.3 81.5

Milton Keynes Females 69.3 68.9 70.0 73.6 70.7 73.0

South East Total 74.7 75.4 75.8 76.8 77.6 78.8

UK Total 70.5 71.2 72.2 73.4 73.8 74.7 Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS

The employment rate in Milton Keynes has been increasing since 2013, and following a slight decline in 2016 has increased again in 2017. The employment rate in Milton Keynes remains above the national (UK) rate but has fallen below the regional average. The male employment rate remains consistently higher than the female rate.

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Emp

loym

en

t R

ate

(%

)

Year

Milton Keynes Total

Milton Keynes Males

Milton Keynes Females


October 2018

15

Chart 8: Percentage in Employment by Occupation in Milton Keynes, 2017

Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS

Chart 9: Percentage in Employment by Occupation in UK, 2017


The largest proportion of people in Milton Keynes are employed in professional occupations, at 19.7%. Interestingly, the proportion of the population employed at the higher and lower extremes of the labour market fell between 2016 and 2017: the proportion employed in elementary occupations fell by 1.0% and the proportion in professional occupations fell by 1.3%. In contrast, the proportion

11.0

19.7

12.2

16.1

6.7

9.1

9.4

5.1

10.4

Milton Keynes

managers, directors andsenior officials

professional occupations

associate prof & techoccupations

administrative and secretarialoccupations

skilled trades occupations

caring, leisure and otherservice occupations

sales and customer serviceoccupations

10.8

20.2

14.3

10.4

10.4

9.1

7.5

6.4

10.5

UK managers, directors and seniorofficialsprofessional occupations

associate prof & techoccupations administrative and secretarialoccupationsskilled trades occupations

caring, leisure and other serviceoccupationssales and customer serviceoccupationsprocess, plant and machineoperativeselementary occupations


October 2018

16

in administrative and secretarial occupations increased by 5.1% and the proportion in sales and customer services occupations rose by 1.9%.

Chart 10: Proportion of Working Age Population by Qualifications, 2017

% with NVQ4+ - aged 16-64




% with other qualifications (NVQ) - aged 16-64

% with no qualifications (NVQ) - aged 16-64

Milton Keynes 37.4 55.7 72.6 84.4 6.5 9.1

UK 38.4 57.0 74.5 85.2 6.8 8.0

South East 41.4 61.1 78.6 89.5 5.3 5.2


In Milton Keynes, 37.4% of the working age population are qualified to NVQ level 4 or above. This in increase from 2016 but remains below the averages for both the UK (38.4%) and the South East (41.4%). At 9.1%, the proportion of individuals with no qualifications is above the national and regional averages of 8.0% and 5.2% respectively. This is also 1.5% higher than reported in 2016.

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f 1

6-6

4 y

ear

old

s

Qualification Level

Milton Keynes

UK

South East


October 2018

17

Table 10: Number of people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET), age 16-18 in Milton Keynes

Year Number %

2010 410 5.1

2011 520 5.8

2012 460 5.1

2013 430 4.7

2014 360 3.9

2015 326 3.8

2016 342 4.5 Source: Department for Education

The average number of young people who were NEET in 2016 stood at 342. This report was prepared by the Economy and Culture Team at Milton Keynes Council. For further information, please contact Lewis Campbell, Economic Development Manager, [email protected] For previous employment reports, or to find out more about what is happening in the MK economy, visit http://www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/business/research-statistics

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/business/research-statistics

Documents

Headlines Jobseekers Allowance Claimant Count Keynes... · NB: From April 2017 the SEMLEP figures reflect the new LEP geography following the merger of SEMLEP ... 140 Programmers