HEADS THEY WIN,TAILS YOU LOSE

Denise TrollopeBA, ARICS,an associate with leadingchartered surveyor GrimleyJREve, presents a survivors guide tothe government's new businessrate.

By now every business operating fromcommercial premises in England andWales, will realise that April 1 bringswith it a classic case of good news or

bad news about the new business rates. These willhave to be paid in future following the revaluationof all non-domestic properties' by the InlandRevenue. It has been the first such revaluation for17 years: a period which has seen the rents of themajority of business premises rise on a massiveupward spiral. This is significant because the newrateable values are based on the rental value of theproperty as at April 1, 1988, assuming terms oftenancy as defined in the Local GovernmentFinance Act of 1981, meaning that the average newRateable Values are some eight times the currentlevel.

1990/1991's rates bills will be based on thenew Rateable value multiplied by the figure whichthe Government has set as the NNDR (NationalNon-Domestic Rate). This has been fixed at 34.8pin the pound (slightly lower than forecast) inEngland, and 36.8p in Wales. The business rate isno longer being set by the local authority, althoughit will still be levying the charge from its businesscommunity.

There has been much sensationalising aboutthe effects of the NNDR. For instance, much wasmade in the media of the fact that Harrods wouldbe paying an extra £8 M on its rates bill. However,most of these stories failed to mention there is atransitional period of five years before the topfigure is reached, and Harrods would appealautomatically for a reduction - as every businesslarge and small has the right to do.

Many businesses, particularly those in indus-trial units in the Midlands and North, will be payingless in business rates under the new system. It isthe southern parts of England that will bear theheavy increases due to the escalation of rentssince the 1973 revaluation. What could be thebiggest knock-on effect is that the NNDR will bringa general slowing down in the commercial propertymarket in the worst effected areas.

Those businesses which currently occupypremises, will be allowed at least a five year periodto phase in the largest changes resulting from theintroduction of the uniform business rate and therevaluation. The maximum increase that anybusiness will face above their 1989/90 ratedemand is 20% per annum plus inflation, (smallerbusinesses are subjected to a lower percentage).

To qualify, ratepayers must occupy a propertyas at March 31 1990, and continue to do so afterthat date.

If a business occupies a property - old or new- after April 11990, the full increase must be paidimmediately.

This could, of course, discourage businessesfrom moving into new premises; even if the 'new'buildings have been standing for decades. Inparticular, it will influence all office and retaildevelopments in those areas where rate liabilitieshave risen substantially.

To keep the property market alive in affectedlocations, lower rents or other inducements mayhave to be offered by landlords. However, any rentreductions or rent-free periods could bring areduction in the investment value of the propertyand, perhaps, reduce the yield to the landlord -reducing property values still further.

Occupiers trying to assign their leases mayhave to lower their financial sights to offer 'reversepremiums', (ie, offer someone a financialinducement to take the property off their hands).

In areas of the country where phasedreductions apply, the actual cost of occupation willnot fall as much as originally hoped, and the extramoney that was thought to be available forinvestment or higher rents will not be there.

Maximum reductions in the current rate liabilityfor large properties is 10.5% in 1990/91, and then13% in 1991/92 (15.5% and 18% for smallproperties), both less inflation.

Unlike the provision for phasing of increases,the phasing of decreases applies to the propertyand not the occupier. It applies to propertycompleted before April 1991 and applies

regardless of the number of changes of occupier.The property market in these areas will thereforenot receive the hoped for fillip.

Rates are a considerable burden for smallbusinesses and many small traders are not awareof how to go about a possible lightening of theload. Even where the rates liability is reduced,there are still further potential savings. It is vitalthat your new rating assessment is checked: forexample, has the Valuation Officer all the correctdetails of your property on file? Has he assessedthe Rateable Value of your premises in accordancewith the terms (set out using a hypothetical case)of the Local Government Finance Act, 1988? Hashe interpreted his rental information correctly? Asthere can be legitimate claims of which theoccupier may be unaware, it may be worthwhileseeking professional advice.

As from January 1 this year, a new Rating List,which records the new assessment of everybusiness premise, has been available forinspection at the local office of the Inland Revenue.Appeals against new assessments can be made upto 1 October 1990, ie a six month period. After that,an appeal can only be made in specialcircumstances such as a physical change to theproperty.

Careful consideration should be given to thequestion of an appeal against the new assessmentwhile the opportunity exists, as the next chancemay not arise before the next Ratings Revaluationscheduled for April 11995.

At present, there are two distinct situationswhen you may wish to appeal against your ratingassessment. You may consider the assessment issimply too high, in which case you should contactyour Local Valuation Officer (in the phone bookunder Inland Revenue) and request a proposalform (short for 'Proposal for alteration of valuationlist') which should be completed and returned.Apart from factual information about the addressand such like, it asks what alteration is proposedand on what grounds. 'A reduction' and 'that thepresent assessment is incorrect and excessive' areall that is required, but you can be more specific ifyou wish.

Alternatively, you may receive a proposal fromthe Valuation Officer seeking to increase yourassessment. In this instance you have only 28days to formally object, be it on a standard formobtainable from the Valuation Officer, or in a letterstating clearly that you wish to object together withthe grounds for doing so.

MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990

NOT PAYINGIS NOT

AN OPTION

If you do object to the Valuation Officer'sassessment, procedures must be followed whichultimately may result in your case being taken toCourt/This is not as daunting as it first appears asthere is ample opportunity to discuss yourgrievance with the Valuation Officer and tonegotiate. Start by comparing facts such as floorareas, then point out any disabilities in yourproperty or its location and compare yourassessment with properties nearby. You may feeldisadvantaged as the Valuation Officer appears tohold all the records, but there are many instanceswhere reductions can be achieved privately simplyon account of changes to the property since thelast valuation: for example, parts having beensub-let or demolished.

If you feel you are not getting satisfaction, thenext step is a hearing before the Local Valuationand Community Charge Tribunal. The ValuationOfficer will have automatically notified the Clerk tothe Tribunal that a dispute has arisen and he willlist the case for hearing in due course. Hearingsare held locally before a Tribunal usuallyconsisting of a Chairman and two furthermembers. These are unsalaried members of thecommunity and may or may not be propertyprofessionals, but they must not have any interestconflicting with those of the parties to be heard.

The Tribunal is an informal affair where

When the forthcoming changes in business rate procedures areimplemented, there are factors that will not alter the liability of occupantsto pay, or the manner in which the rating authority can pursue a claim inevent of default.

Assuming that the demand is in respect of a legitimate claim, the mostusual route to the defaulter's pocket is by way of distress warrant issued bythe Courts. This can lead to possessions being seized, and if their valueproves insufficient to cover the debt, the possibility of a spell in prison.

Mistakes in the demand note do not exclude the individual from theliability to pay. There are procedures to alter the Valuation List, to appealagainst rateable value, and to correct errors; but failing to pay, is not apermissible sanction - not even to 'buy' time when the red demandcomes in.

There are other options open to Rating Authorities includingbankruptcy - or winding-up petitions if the rates apply to a limitedcompany - and, in some circumstances, rents from tenants may.bediverted to the Rating Authority in lieu of rates. To avoid anyunpleasantness, rating authorities are usually only too willing to come toarrangements for payment by instalment.

For some rate-payers, including charities or trustees of a charity, therates liability may be decreased because of mandatory and discretionaryreliefs. There is an 80% mandatory relief when properties are wholly ormainly used for charitable purposes, and this may be made up to 100% atthe discretion of an individual authority.

A discretionary discount may also be granted to the landlord of aproperty in multiple occupancy. Basically, if the landlord is willing tocollect the relatively small amounts payable from his tenants, and thenpay in one lump sum to the rating authority, he could be eligible for adiscount on the total.

A further discount can be allowed on the grounds of 'hardship'. As theterm suggests, this is usually granted for financial reasons but there mayalso be other grounds. If, for instance, a property is under the threat ofcompulsory purchase, making letting a virtual impossibility, the localauthority can grant rate relief.

unrepresented ratepayers are welcomed. Theprocedures for presenting cases, cross examiningand summing up will be explained by the Clerk atthe outset. While the Tribunal tries to adhere tonormal Court proceedings, you will not bepenalised for digressions; however, you will notscore any points if your case degenerates into a'Council bashing' session or if you are offensive.Present your case clearly, stick to the relevantissues and reiterate all the points you made to theValuation Officer. It is advisable to agree as manyfacts as possible beforehand with the ValuationOfficer and to identify the areas of dispute in orderto focus the Tribunal's mind.

The members of the Tribunal will normally wishto inspect the premises and locality, thus reservingtheir decision which will be given to the parties inwriting at a later date. The Tribunal has no power toaward costs against any party and if you wereunrepresented your only cost is your time.

If the decision is unfavourable, appeal lies withthe Land Tribunal, a specialised Court for mattersof property valuation. This is considerably moreformal than the Local Valuation and CommunityCharge Tribunal and costs can be awarded. Forthese reasons it is usually wise to seekprofessional advice as to the strength of your case,although you will not be barred from presentingyour case personally.

You have 28 days from the date of the decisionof the Local Valuation Tribunal to appeal to theRegistrar of the Lands Tribunal. The appeal is notautomatic as in the case of the Lower Court, and itmust be lodged in a prescribed form.

The Land Tribunal adheres to the rules ofevidence and procedure. It is the ultimate Court onmatters of valuation; leave to appeal only beinggranted on matter of law. A decision to appeal tothe Land Tribunal should not be taken lightly: 'I'vegot nothing to lose' is not the correct appraisal ofthe situation. The Lands Tribunal is a specialist,knowledgeable body whose members have manyyears experience in property matters. The level ofcompetence of those presenting cases shouldreflect the calibre of the Tribunal.

Under the new NNDR, a large number ofappeals are expected; and the Valuation Officesuffers from considerable under-staffing. Myadvice is to inspect the Rating List if you haven'talready done so, and if the figures are excessive,consider seeking help and advice from aprofessional and lodge a formal appeal after April1, but before September 30.

While the Government has said that it will payback excessive charges plus interest, manybusinesses may suffer badly while waiting; aclassic instance of that well known saying, 'don'thold your breath'. EE

MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990

COMPUTERSCOME OF AGE

Casting his eye over the last 25 years of the development ofthe use of the computer in manufacturing, and taking a

predictive stab at future advances, is Gary Winsor MA CEngFIEE MinstP, Technical Programs Manager at IBM's

Havant plant.

Looking back to 1965 from thevantage point of 1990, it istempting to think that little haschanged. In 1965 there was

concern over the decline of manufacturingindustry and, as now, engineers filled thecolumns of their institution magazineswith letters bemoaning their status. Yetthere is one aspect of engineering wherethere have been profound changesaffecting all professional engineers, andthat is in the use of computer technology.

Cast your mind back, if you are oldenough, to 1965; a time when the pocketcalculator was still a thing of the future.Electronic calculators had made anappearance a few years earlier, but theywere roughly the size of portabletypewriters and had Nixie tube displays.Many engineers preferredelectromechanical calculators; althoughthese were noisy, they could displayseveral registers simultaneously. However,the major engineering calculation aid wasstill the slide rule.

Only large companies could afford acomputer. This machine lived in a specialroom and anyone wishing to use it had tolearn the appropriate language, prepare theprogram and data on cards or paper tape andtake it to the computer. The result wasavailable the following day and usuallyconsisted of statements describing why theprogram had failed. After a few attempts, andwith a bit of luck, the result was obtained.

In the computer world, IBM had recentlyintroduced the System 360. The largest 360available at the time was the model 30which had a processing speed of less than0.1 MIPS (million instructions per second)and a maximum memory size of 64 kB;monthly rental for a typical system was$ 10 000. It was the first computer with

modules containing multiple transistorchips - previous models had used discretetransistors - and it had a ferrite corememory.

Computer development 1965-90Since 1965, the cost and performance of

computers have improved by a factor of 3roughly every three years. As transistorshave given way to large scale integratedcircuits, the cost per million calculationshas reduced from just over one dollar in1965 to two and a half cents in 1980, toless than one cent today. In the memoryfield, ferrite cores were superseded bysemiconductor memories in the early1970s, and the cost per megabyte hasfallen from over $ 1 M in 1965 to less than$100 now. In the mass memory area, tapesand drums have given way to disks, andthe cost per megabyte has come down from$4000 in 1965 to between $ 10 and $20 in1990. Today, a personal computer with aprocessing power of greater than 1 MIP, a4 MB memory and a 115 MB hard disk canbe bought for around $8000.

In the 1970s, processing started to movefrom overnight batch runs to interactiveuse via terminals and card punching is nowa thing of the past. Database structure isevolving from hierarchical to relational,giving users easy access to their data viaon-line enquiry. Communication betweenmachines on a site is changing from a sitehost communicating with lower levelmachines to distributed processing bymachines on a network. Communicationbetween sites has changed from a situation

. where tapes were transmitted overnight, toone where communication of data isvirtually instantaneous.

During the 1980s, there were twodevelopments which fundamentally

affected the work patterns of all practisingengineers. The first was the arrival of thepersonal computer which first appeared inthe late 1970s. During the 1980s use of thePC grew and brought with it a generation ofsoftware intended for end users rather thanprogrammers which gave engineers accessto sophisticated low cost engineeringpackages, and brought a tremendousopportunity for improved productivity andresponsiveness. The second developmentwas the introduction of electronic mail.This was a culture shock as engineers,managers and indeed all professionals,myself included, found themselves havingto learn to type.

Functions of an engineering companyTo examine the effects of computers

during the last 25 years, it is useful tosummarise the functions of an engineeringcompany.• Design the product and the

manufacturing process• Take orders for the product and manage

the material• Control and track production• Manage the business and maintain

financial recordsAll engineering companies need to

perform these tasks which all involve theprocessing and communication ofinformation. They can, of course, beperformed manually using an engineeringfile, an order book, stock cards, trackingsheets and ledgers, but where largevolumes of data need to be processedquickly and accurately, computers are theobvious solution.

These tasks can also be broadlyclassified as either repetitive, intelligent orcreative. Repetitive information processingtasks are obvious candidates for

MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990

SILVER JUBILEEautomation using simple and formalisedcomputer applications. Intelligent tasks aremore difficult to computerise; however, ifthe intelligence can be expressed as a set ofrules, a computer application can be madeto do most of the work. Creative tasks, suchas design, will always be done by people;here the challenge is to provide aids andadvice to make the creative process moreproductive.

Mechanical designTo understand the changes which have

occurred over the last 25 years, let us lookfirst at engineering design. In 1965 therewere no CAD systems and detailedmechanical design was done on drawingboards. The first CAD system is generallyconsidered to have been the Sketchpadsystem developed by the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology in the late 1960sand since then CAD has evolved through2D drafting systems, through 3D wireframing, to 3D surface modelling and 3Dsolid modelling. Today, 48% of all designdrawing work in UK industry is done oncomputer screens rather than drawingboards. Most users employ 2D systems,many of which run on low costmicroprocessors, but the biggest growtharea is 3D modelling where users arecoming to understand the benefits whichcan be realised using the analytical toolavailable with these packages. Today, finiteelement testing analysis can be performedon solid models, allowing 'soft' mechanicaltesting of components before they aremade, and models may also be 'assembled'to allow tolerance problems to be resolvedbefore actual assembly.

Electrical designElectrical design was computer-assisted

some years before mechanical design, mostnotably in the area of printed circuit board(PCB) layout. There are several reasons forthis: board design is two dimensional;the geometry is often constrained by thepitch of holes on the board; and the layoutis subject to mathematical rules governingline lengths, widths and spacings.Computerised PCB layout was already wellestablished in 1965 and since then this hasextended from single layer boards tomulti-layer boards via holes betweenplanes, to the design of personalisedintegrated circuits, to the layout of multi-layer ceramic substrates for mountingintegrated circuits.

Today, 43% of UK electronics designsites use a CAD system. As with mechanicaldesign, most design is PC based and oftenuses a mechanical 2D drawing package.Fewer sites use computers for logic design,

which is surprising since the output of alogic design system can be used as theinput to a chip/substrate/board layoutsystem. In addition, simulation softwarecan be run to enable design errors to becorrected before the design is committed tosilicon.

Manufacturing process designOne area which was ignored for many

years was that of manufacturing processdesign. Although manufacturing engineershad access to the same tools as designengineers, there is more to setting up amanufacturing process than designingequipment. Manufacturing engineers needto plan production lines, calculateoperation times and line capacity, simulateproduction flow, create yield and qualitymodels and analyse results. In 1965 it wasdifficult to justify doing these mathematicaltasks on a mainframe, but in the late1960s, user languages such as APL becameavailable which enabled computer-literateengineers to perform complex calculations.However, the breakthrough came in theearly 1980s with the arrival of the personalcomputer and when the advent of thespreadsheet provided for the first time auser-friendly computerised method ofcalculation for non-programmers.

Materials managementThe design of a product forms the base

for all subsequent manufacturingactivities, and the management ofengineering data is essential to thesuccessful operation of the business. In thefield of materials planning andmanagement, the key information is thebill of material structure. In 1965, somelarge manufacturing companies were usingBill of Material Processors (BOMP) tomaintain records of parts, products andsub-assemblies. However, these were batchprograms and not linked to otherapplications. During the last 25 years thesituation has changed to the point where66% of large UK manufacturing sites arerunning computer-based materialmanagement systems based on bill ofmaterials, many of which run on PCs.

Today in a multinational company,orders may be received via internal orpublic networks, checked for completenessagainst tables and, if accepted, scheduledfor manufacture. Using MRP and theproduct bill of material, parts orders maybe generated and electronic datainterchange (EDI) used to send the ordersto suppliers. When parts are received theymay be bar coded into stock, invoices maybe received via EDI and payment made byelectronic funds transfer.

MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990

SILVER JUBILEE

Manufacturing process controlIn manufacturing process control,

engineering data describing a product orpart may be used to generate themanufacturing process. In 1965 the outputfrom electrical design automation (EDA)tools was used to generate masks used inPCB manufacture and control wire wraptools. The circuit design information wasalso processed to generate test patterns. In1990, this situation has changed only inthe scale of miniaturisation in that the EDAoutput is now used to manufacture chipsand chip carriers as well as PCBs. However,in the area of manufacturing mechanicalparts the introduction of computer baseddesign tools, which did not exist in 1965,has had a much greater impact. Today,from a 2D or 3D model, applications can berun which generate cutter paths for NCmachining and the output post-processedto suit a particular NC machine. 3D modelscan be transformed to generate moulddesigns for plastic parts, and the flow ofmaterial into the mould can also bemodelled to optimise the design. 3D modelsof robots can be set up and an assemblyprogram written and proved out off-line.

In 1965 the use of computers to controlmanufacturing processes was already wellknown. However, the cost of even a smallcomputer, and the space it occupied, meantthat only expensive equipment couldjustify computer control; hence the controlof complex test equipment was the majorarea where computers were employed sinceit was faster and more economic to modifya test program than to rewire theequipment. In the field of machine tooltechnology, arguably the high point of that

Molins System /24 - the world'sfirst flexible manufacturingsystem (FMS)

period came in Britain in the late 1960s asmany of the concepts and enablingtechnologies remained unsurpassed formany years after. This was the MolinsSystem 24 where a line of numericallycontrolled machine tools under the controlof an IBM 1130 became the world's firstfully automated, flexible manufacturingsystem capable of lights-out operation.

As the cost of small computers reduced,their use on the shop floor increased. Forexample, the IBM 1130 of the late 1960swas roughly the size of a desk and cost tensof thousands of pounds. Memory sizesranged from 2 k to 32 k, but above 16 k anadditional desk-sized frame was needed tohouse the extra memory. It is a soberingthought that in 1970 memory costs were aconcern to managers who would urge theirprogrammers to use their ingenuity tomake their programs fit into 4 k of memoryrather than 8 k. Today it is hard to find a PCwith less than 640 k of memory (1 MB isnormal and an additional 2 MB costsaround $150), and the PC is often thelowest cost element of the equipment. PCsalso have cheap standard cards forcommunication which means that themodern equivalent of the Molins cell can becontrolled by a network of PCs.

The introduction of the PC was based onthe development of the microprocessor,which itself had effects on engineering. In1965 NC machines were controlled by tapereaders, the program tape being read foreach stage of operation. By the early1970s, some NC machines were operatingunder computer control. Today, low costmicroprocessors means that all modernmachine tools and other equipment such as

robots can be controlled by computer.The availability of increased processing

power at reasonable cost has enabledmachine vision to become an affordableoption for the shop floor. In 1965, machinevision was essentially limited to characterrecognition for applications such as chequesorting, and the machines involved werecomplex and expensive. The onlyaffordable method of recognition was barcoding and over the years this has becomecommonplace in all areas of manufacturingand distribution. Today, machine visionhas advanced to the stage where randomlyoriented objects on a moving belt can berecognised and a robot gripper aligned topick them up.

Finance and managementThis survey would not be complete

without mentioning financial control andmanagement. In 1965, the financialapplications running in a typical industrialcompany were batch ledger programs withcard input. Reports from these and othermanagement applications were listings, andmany man hours were spent scanning them.If a special report was needed, then a specialreporting program had to be written.

Today, the financial systems in acompany are linked with the other businessapplications such as inventorymanagement, orders, receipts andshipments. Reporting has moved fromlistings to on-line enquiry, and theintroduction of relational databases andassociated query languages has allowedusers to structure ad hoc enquiries forinformation and obtain real timeresponses. Graphics programs can be usedto provide graphical reports of businessperformance to management, thus makingthe computer a real time decision supporttool for management.

Computer integrated manufactureSo far we have discussed the influence of

computers in the engineering industry asthough each use was a standaloneapplication. This was certainly the case in1965 where there were few applicationsand few communications between them,but during the last 25 years the situationhas changed to the point where a largeengineering company may have as many as100 applications programs installed incentral facilities or on the shopfloor, linkedby software bridges and communicationsnetworks. This sharing of data effectivelyintegrates the enterprise and has becomeknown as CIM, or computer integratedmanufacturing.

To understand CIM let us consider amultinational company with design,

MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990

SILVER JUBILEEORDERS COMPUTER

INTEGRATEDMANUFACTURING

ENGINEERING DATA

COMPONENTORDERS

RECEIPTS

COST DATA LINE DATA

INVOICES SHIPMENTS

manufacturing and marketing locationsthroughout the world.

Design locations design products usingmechanical and electrical design tools andrelease this information to all themanufacturing plants which will make theproduct or its components. Thisinformation may consist of drawings,circuit diagrams, bills of materials,program listings and descriptivedocuments held by engineering changelevel, and this data is stored in anengineering system.

Marketing branch offices take productorders and transmit them to themanufacturing locations using aninternational telecommunicationsnetwork. An order process system in theplant checks the order for completenessand validity, consults the productionschedule and responds with a committeddelivery date.

The materials system is linked to boththe engineering system and the orderprocess system. Using the product bill ofmaterial and the order information, thematerials system can calculate thecomponents required to manufacturethe order, and, after checking theinventory holding of each component,generates orders on vendors or other plantsin the company via public or internalnetworks. When the components arereceived, the inventory record is updatedand payment requested via the financialsystem.

The manufacturing process system isalso linked to both the engineering systemand the order process system. Using theorder information and the productdescription, a manufacturing process can

be generated which includes routings, listsof components by operation, NC machiningdata and test patterns.

When the order is scheduled forproduction, instructions and parts areissued to the shop floor. Manufacturingsupport systems control production usingdata from the manufacturing processsystems and track the progress of the orderthrough the line recording data such asquality, yield and operation time at eachstage.

Financial systems are linked to bothmaterials and production systems. Whenparts are received, the financial systems aretriggered to pay the supplier, and when theproduct is shipped an invoice is generated.

PeopleComputer technology and its

applications in engineering have developedvery rapidly and we should not forget itseffect on people. Those already working inindustry 25 years ago have had to adapt tothese changes and, while some have copedbetter than others, it is apparent that wherethe changes have been well managed, andproper training given, that people haveadapted to the new technology withoutmajor problems.

For people entering industry today, theeffect has been positive. In 1965 few peopleentering engineering had encountered thetechnologies used in industry. In 1990,virtually every school leaver and graduateis familiar with the use of computers. Inaddition, the introduction of experience-based learning into schools and highereducation is producing a stream of entrantsto engineering who can become effectivemore quickly than those of 1965.

The futureForecasting, it has been said, is difficult,

especially when it concerns the future!Although it would be foolish to try toforecast the changes which will occur in thecomputer and engineering industries overthe next 25 years, there are some changeswhich can be predicted with reasonablecertainty.

First, there is no reason to suppose thatthere will be a slow down in the rate ofimprovement in the cost and performanceof computer technology over the next 25years. This means that desk-top and shopfloor processors will become even morepowerful and that tasks which today aretoo expensive or time consuming willbecome both feasible and affordable. Areaswhich will benefit include:

Machine vision. The processing ofcomplex images will develop to a pointwhere machine vision and imageprocessing will become the equal of humaninspection, providing a major opportunityfor quality improvement.

Geometric modelling. The manipulationof complex solid models will develop to thepoint where an engineer will, as a matter ofcourse, generate 'soft' models of parts,products and process lines and simulatetheir operation before these are evercommitted to hardware. This will enablecompanies to respond quickly tocompetition with new products andprocesses which are 'right first time'.

Expert systems. The primitive rule-basedexpert systems of today will develop intotrue artificial intelligence systems with theability to learn from experience. Today,expert systems assist technicians to rectifyfaults; in the future, expert systems will beapplied to engineering design.

Human interface. Today, the primarymethod of input is the keyboard, and theprimary output medium is the VDU. Thekeyboard is an artificial constraint on theuse of computers and will give way to voiceinput when voice recognition technologyand computer processing power havedeveloped to the point where this is feasibleand affordable. Visual output will remain,migrating to flat screens, but should beaugmented by synthesised, but 'natural',voice output. Improvements in the humaninterface will be a major factor in the speedat which computer technology is adoptedby industry.

In summary, the improved cost andperformance of computer technology willextend its use from the automation ofrepetitive tasks to applications which todayrequire human intelligence, leavingengineers to concentrate on creative work-with help from computers, of course! SB

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MANUFACTURING ENGINEER MARCH 1990