Hellinga TUe Energy Days 6Oct2011 - TU/e

Present and future energy useand supply

in the Netherlands

Permanent under construction

TU/e Energy Days – Energy use and availability in a developing world, Oct. 6 2011

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Chris Hellinga

Scientific Advisor Delft Energy Initiative

www.energie.tudelft.nl

www.kiviniria.nl/energie

KIVI NIRIA

TU Delft

1. Report (2006-2008): Smart Energy Mix

2. Booklet 2010 : De energievoorziening

van Nederland. Vandaag (en morgen)?

3. Future – The 3 scenario model


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Delft Energy Initiative

Green Campus

Energy Club

An impression of Dutch full scale use of

solar & wind energy and biomass

• Current energy use: how much, for what?

• Trends until 2050• Growth

• Energy savings

• System changes


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• Energy needs in 2050

• Share of electricity?

• Primary supply with solar PV, wind turbines, biomass.

3

10 year TUD commitment for 4 societal themes

“ “


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Energy Health Infrastructures

&

Mobility

Environment

w


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www.withouthotair.com

5

uraniumheat + biomass

coal

natural gas

built

environment

industry

national

transportation

industry -

products

%

16

20

12

2008

Energy use by sector

energy

end users

(49%)

products

(16%)

1. Transport (32%)

2. Industry (29%)

3. Built environment (20%)

4. Conversion losses(16%)


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mineral oil

electricity

industry

energy use

conversion

losses

international

aviation and

shipping

agriculture

13

3

20

16

100

conversion

Losses

(16%)

international

aviation and

Shipping

(20%)

4. Conversion losses(16%)

5. Agriculture /

greenhouses (3%)

built

environment

industry

national

transportation

Industry -

products

%

16

20

12

electricity

heat + biomass

remaining fossil

toepassing

“equipment”

space heatingand

domestic hotwater (DHW)

function inzet

2008 2050

Future energy demand; e.g. built environment

energy carrier

elektricity

heat pumps,geothermal, waste heat

system changes

energy carrier

space heating and DWH

equipment

function


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industry

energy use

conversion

losses

international

aviation

and

shipping

agriculture

13

3

20

16

100

natural gas (<70 C)

39

kWh/p/d

waste heat (no gas)

Insulation

13

kWh/p/d

system changes

IsolatieInsulation(-50% heating)

warmte)

28

kWh/p/dgrowth

savings

Most important assumptions

+ 0,68% / yearEnergy demand (PJ)


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Growth

+0,4% per year (=+18% in 2050)

Savings

Heat demand built env. -50%

Internal combustion engines -20%

Agriculture -25%

Industry -25%

System changes

Low value heat (<70C) : electric (heat pumps, geothermal and waste heat)

Light road transport : elektric

COP (Coefficient of Performance)

Electricity

(kWh)Heat

(kWh)

delivered thermal energy

COP =

used electric energy We assume:

Low value heat supply:

- 80% heat pumps (COP =3)

- 20% geothermal/waste heat (COP=10)

=> Average COP = 4,4


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Heat pump

COP ~ 3-4

Geothermal heat

COP ~ 10-25 COP : high

(Industral) waste heat

Suited for electric transportation

17 kWh/p/d

= 60% of nationial transport energy

= 25% of total transport energy

Suited for electric transportation

17 kWh/p/d

= 60% of nationial transport energy

= 25% of total transport energy

Transportation by segment


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For all sectors


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Consequences for the energy demand

More “energy functions” SavingsSystem

changes

Industry: -25%


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Built environment

-50% heat/m2

Industry: -25%

International

combustion engines

-20%

Electric transp.

Heat pumps/geo

(biomass

conversion;

CCS)

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Future energy sources:Electricity• Wind 25% of year average demand

• Solar-PV in the summer the rest

The rest (transportation/feedstock for chemical industry)• Biomass

Wind: Factor 2 Zon: Factor 10


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Monthly solar intensityin London and Edinburgh

(source: David MacKay, 2008)

Monthly capacity factor of wind turbines in Germany

(source: ISET Wind Energy Measurement Network (2004)

=> a “winter gap” (18%). Here: fossil (+CCS)/nuclear

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Assumption for sources used in 2050


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159 159

15

Electricity

"Biomass"

Losses

Fossil

Electricity use

shipping/

aviation

Electricity

Mineral oil

Natural gas (to end

users)

Rest

10%

Feed stock industry

40%

Conversion losses

+ CCS


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4145 PJ = 193 kWh/p/d 3474 PJ = 160 kWh/p/d

2008 2050

Electricity 2050

• In absolute numbers: 3* the current use

• of which: 30% for biomass conversion

• Wind + solar-PV = 82%

• Seasonal fluctuation:18% from fossil/nuclear (16 GW)

• 16 GW = 75% of our current central e-power generation capacity….

(nuclear would do better: no CCS);


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Percents of the estimated electricity use in 2050

(380TWh/year = 1360 PJ/year = 63 kWh/p/d)

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What does storage mean?

Electricity

"Biomass"

Losses

1382 PJ

18% = 250 PJ “winter gap”

=> No power plants, but energy storage (i.e. “18% more wind turbines + solar PV”)

Water elevation: 1 m3, at 1 m (average) height = 10.000 J 1.1 km water above Dutch soil (40.000 km2))

Our major electricity storage solutions will come from “chemicals”,

not from water or batteries.

We will have to focus on seasons fluctuations (NW Europe + ..).

Solutions determine which challenges remain for short term

fluctuations.


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Water elevation: 1 m3, at 1 m (average) height = 10.000 J 1.1 km water above Dutch soil (40.000 km ))

(round numbers, no conversion losses for storage and electricity production)

Hydrogen: 1 kg = 120 MJ (=14 l (liquid) = 12.000.000 l water/1 m h

= 3 l diesel) 10 m height * 3 km2

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Batteries in cars:

7 million passenger cars in NL

Future: 80 kWh/car? (=400 km travel distance)

40 kWh on the average for buffering? => 1 PJ in total 0,4% of “winter gap”

25% of here estimated daily 2050

electricity use

fluctuations.

These considerations have also major impacts in the thinking for

future energy generation such as the contribution of CSP.

Conclusions

• The intake of energy carriers in the Dutch economy is twice as high as the

energy use of “end users”

• In 2050 we might use three times as much electricity as in 2008.

• This is probably “only” 50% of our energy needs

• Year average electricity demand can sustainably be generated on Dutch

surface


|

surface

• (Seasonal) fluctuations have great impact on our energy system.

Energy storage, smart grids, (international) exchange are important issues.

• Biomass will become important (transport fuels, feedstock).

To what extent depends on the development of other solutions (direct

conversion of sunlight to fuels, nuclear ship propulsion, … ?)

• International dependency will remain20

To think about …..


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Energy savings are extremely important ….

Vergroening chemische industrie

BIOMASSA

zetmeel / suiker / lignocellulose

Iso-butanol ethanol methaan SNG

Vergas-sing

Innovatie met toegevoegde waarde Building blocks bestaande Chemie

VergistingAerobic

An-aerobic

anderesuccinic azijn-melk-Funct.

Bioraf-finage

Fermentatie en andere processen


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Iso-butanol ethanol methaan SNG

Iso-butyleen Ethyleen

anderesuccinic acid

azijn-zuur

melk-zuur

Funct. moleculen

concerveermid.plastics

synthet. polymeren

lijm

plastics, verdikkings-

middelen

Paraxyleen

PET-flessen

Propyleen

kunstmest methanol

=80% chemische industrie

Plastics, surfactants, wasmiddelen

Plastics, tapijt

Reforming

glycerol

Ton Runneboom KVIV Antwerpen Feb 10 2011

Vergroening via ARG-etheenpijpleiding


| 23Ton Runneboom KVIV Antwerpen Feb 10 2011

The European Bulk Chemical industry needs Bio- Ethylene


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Documents

Hellinga TUe Energy Days 6Oct2011 - TU/e