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R.SalimiN.Mohammadi
CONTENT
Introduction
Heuristic Types
Gaze heuristic
Recognition heuristic
Social heuristic
Heuristics Based on Reasons
Take the best heuristic
Tallying heuristic
Hindsight bias
Conclusion
Introduaction
WHAT to DO
?
What is Unbounded Rationality ?
Unbounded Rationality
infinite amount of time
all relevant informationIn models of Bounded
Rationality(Simon’s term):
how do humans who have little time & knowledge
behave?
3 Programs associated with bounded rationality
1
• The study of optimization under constraints.
2• The study of cognitive illusion.
3
•The study of fast & frugal heuristic.
Heuristic is a rule:
A rule is not necessarily a heuristic, unless it embodies 3 qualities
Heuristics Versus Rules
1-Heuristics exploit evolved capacities
2-Heuristics exploit structures of environments
3- heuristics are distinct from “as if” optimization models
Simon’s vision of bounded rationality
Simon: Human rational behavior is
structure of
task
environment
capabilities of the actor
Heuristic Types
Gaze Heuristic
Gaze heuristicPRABOBOLAInitial DistanceInitial VelocityProjection AngleProjection SpeedDirection of The Wind
No such robots exist yet!
RUNNING SPEED
ANGLE OF GAZE REMAINS CONSTANT
NOT COMPUTE THE POINT AT WHICH THE BALL WILL LAND, BUT HE WILL BE THERE
Gaze heuristic
FAST and FRUGAL A REAL EXPERINCE . . .
Heuristic Type
Recognition Heuristics
TWO CITIES IN
UNITED STATES
San DiegoSan Antonio
GERMAN
Which city has
more inhabitant?
33 %
66 %
SAN ANTONIO
SAN DIEGO 100 %
0 %
Recognition heuristic
AMERICANWHAT
HAPPENED …!?
Less Knowledge
More Correct Inference
Ecological Rationality:
Correlation between recognition & criteria
Recognition validity:
α = R / ( R + W )
recognition information
further knowledge
less-is-more effect
Less-is-more in groups
Decision to go to museum
which museum?
The less-is-more effect
)1(
)1(
2
1
)1(
)1)((
)1(
)(2
NN
nn
NN
nNnN
NN
nNnc
N: number of objects
n: number of recognized objects
α: recognition validity
β: knowledge validity
The recognition heuristic will yield aless-is-more effect if α > β
Heuristic Type
Social Heuristics
“Do what the majority do” heuristic
Darwin
Decision to marry
Single or married
Ecological Rationality of
do-what-the-majority do Heuristics
Similarenvironments
Stableenvironments
Noisy
environments
Heuristic Type
Heuristics Based on Reasons
Heuristic Type
Take the Best &Tallying
Take The Best heuristic (TTB)
ONE-REASON DECISION MAKINGSEARCH BY VALIDITY
Validities Cues School A School B
0.9 reputation + -
0.6 distance - +
0.8 students - +
ONE-REASON STOPPING RULE
Validities Cues School A School B
0.9 reputation + -
0.6 distance - +
0.8 students - +
Random
search
Stop after
searching m
cues
Tallying rull
Tallying heuristic
Ecological Rationality of Take The Best and Tallying
Take The BestNoncompensatory
Tallying Compensatory
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight Bias
Which has more cholesterol , cake or pie?
Cues Original Feedback Recall
Saturated fat (80%) cake? Pie "cake" cake> pie
Calories (70%) cake> pie
Protein (60%)
Choice cake cake
Confidence 70% 80%
Which heuristic to use?
Using heuristic unconsciously
adapt heuristics to changing environment with
feedback.
Evaluating creditworthy
How people adapt their heuristics to
the structure of environment
Robustness
• the ability to make predictions about the future or new events
fitness
• the ability to fit the past or already known data
Simplicity can lead to higher predictive
accuracy
The building Blocks of Heuristics
Heuristics In Hospital
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION