High Speed Rail Viability in Texas

September 3, 2014

• What is High Speed Rail?

• Current Status of High Speed Rail in Texas

• Texas vs. Other Established Systems

• A Unique Opportunity

• Issues to Resolve/Address

• What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean for Texas?

High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Overview

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly

Background

U.S. DOT: “Rail service that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for travel markets in the approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.”

European Union: Minimum Operating Speeds

• 120 mph – Existing Rail Lines• 160 mph – New HSRs

Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR):

HSR Lines Scenarios



HSR in Japan

Early efforts : 1964 Japan: HSR line Toyko to Shin-Osaka



HSR in Europe

Early efforts : 1977 Italy: HSR line Rome – Florence

High Speed Train (HST) “Pendolino” operated at speeds up to 155 mph


HSR in Europe

1981 France – HSR line Paris – LyonHST Train à Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160 mph


• Intended for regional (intercity trips)– Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed for long

periods before needing to brake)– Typically, 100-500 mile trips– Example: Houston – Atlanta, ~ 790 miles,

• 2 hours by air• Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops

• May be subsidized or funded by the government• Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather than vehicle• Version of public transport even if operated by private firm or

concession– Similar to air– Dissimilar to auto

• Outcome: HSR competes with air in limited niche – Limited SOV vehicles– Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, $111


What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?


HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor

2000 USA – The Northeast Corridor

Acela Express HSTMaximum Operating Speed150 mphAverage Operating Speed72 – 125 mph

HSR length 450 miles



HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor

The impact of the Acela Express on airlinesAir/HSR Market Share Analysis

RouteDistance (miles)

Air/HSR market share

for Acela Express

Acela Express Travel time

(h:min)

NYC – Washington DC 230 65% 2:45

NYC – Boston 225 52% 3:30

Boston – Philadelphia 320 18% 4:56



HSR in USA – The Future

The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA

•South Central, San Antonio – DFW –

Tulsa/Little Rock

•Gulf Coast: Houston – New Orleans –

Southeast (Atlanta & eastern seaboard)

•California Corridors,

•Florida: Tampa – Orlando – Miami,

•Northeast Region,

•Chicago Hub: Detroit – Chicago,

Kansas City – St. Louis – Chicago

•Southeast,

•Pacific Northwest


• Many Competing Voices– Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas T-

bone)– Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS)

• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)

• Regional Issues:– NCTCOG– Commission for High-Speed Rail in the

Dallas/Fort Worth Region– Tarrant vs. Dallas County


HSR in Texas: Current Status

• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)– FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS– Downtown Dallas station– No public money– Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway

• Regional Issues:– HSR in Tarrant County– Station in Arlington near entertainment district– Coordination and consideration of complete

transportation system– How to fund?





Existing HSR Systems’ Experience: HSR Stations Near Downtown

• Access: Transportation– Bus– Rail (urban and commuter)

• Access: Activities(dense urban cores)– Businesses (high value business in core)– Entertainment (most in core)– Urban housing (high value property)



Texas/American Experience

• Access: Transportation– Bus– Rail (urban and commuter)– Automobile

• Access: Activities(dispersed)– Businesses (multiple centers)– Entertainment– Housing (suburban)



From / To Austin College Station Dallas Fort Worth Galveston Houston Laredo San Antonio WacoAustin - 1:28 1:37 1:35 2:33 2:13 1:52 0:30 0:46

- 1:07 1:10 1:08 1:49 1:34 1:22 0:21 0:33College Station 1:29 - 1:34 1:31 1:04 0:45 3:21 1:59 0:43

1:03 - 1:06 1:04 0:47 0:32 2:26 1:25 0:30Dallas 1:37 1:33 - 0:19 2:02 1:43 3:30 2:08 0:51

1:10 1:05 - 0:13 1:33 1:18 2:33 1:32 0:36Fort Worth 1:35 1:30 0:21 - 2:16 1:56 3:27 2:05 0:48

1:08 1:03 0:15 - 1:42 1:27 2:31 1:30 0:34Galveston 2:36 1:05 2:05 2:18 - 0:22 4:28 3:06 1:49

1:50 0:47 1:33 1:41 - 0:15 3:12 2:12 1:16Houston 2:13 0:43 1:44 1:55 0:19 - 4:05 2:43 1:27

1:34 0:32 1:18 1:35 0:15 - 2:57 1:56 1:01Laredo 1:52 3:20 3:30 3:27 4:25 4:05 - 0:30 2:38

1:22 2:25 2:33 2:31 3:12 2:57 - 1:00 1:56San Antonio 0:30 1:58 2:08 2:05 3:03 2:43 0:30 - 1:16

0:21 1:24 1:32 1:30 2:11 1:56 1:00 - 0:55Waco 0:46 0:42 0:51 0:48 1:46 1:27 2:38 1:16 -

0:33 0:29 0:36 0:34 1:16 1:01 1:56 0:55 -

Travel Time in HH:MM for Wheel Rail (186mph) and Maglev (186mph)

Note: •Travel Times do not include station dwell times•Any origin to destination service does not have intermediate stops


HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV

Today, France has approximately 1,000 miles of HSR lines



HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV

The impact of the TGV on airlines in FranceAir/HSR Market Share Analysis

RouteTGV

Market ShareJourney Time

(hours)

Paris-Lyon 91% 1:55

Paris-Nantes 89% 2:00

Paris-Bordeaux 62% 3:00

Lyon-Lille 60% 3:00

Paris-Marseille 60% 3:10

Route typeTGV

Market Share

Journey Time ≤ 2 hours 90%

Journey Time ≥ 2 hours 60%

Total on domestic routes 81%



HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership

• Based on international and US(Acela Express) experience – HSIPR can get 80% - 90% of the Air/HSIPR

market share when travel time is up to 2 hours– HSIPR can get 50% - 80% of the Air/HSIPR

market share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours– As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can

expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of existing airline ridership after five years of operation

• The ridership becomes sensitive to the location of the station


HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership

Ridership (Passengers/Year)


A Unique Opportunity

• Access = Economic Opportunity

• Regional air profitability is limited

• Rail replaces regional air service and creates economic and development opportunities outside the major urban areas

• Integrated transportation system



European Experience: HSR Stations Near Airports • Airlines are offering combined air and rail ticketing

• Rail passengers have expedited check in to airport terminals

• HSR Airport to Airport Connections

Source: Raileurope.com



AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport

Terminal 1 Airport AIRail HSR Station



• Ticketing Benefits – Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer

online booking for combined flight and HSR train • Access to destinations beyond the arrival airport.

• Other Benefits: – Replace air trips

• Lower environmental impact• Similar safety

– New stations = economic development – Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College

Station, Temple/Belton)• Less frequent service• Each stop adds dwell time and lost time


HSR in Texas – The Future

The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and Airlines:A Cooperative Approach

On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute for “feeder” flights operated by regional airlines

Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and airlines may produce benefits for:

Major Airlines

• Dismiss less profitable routes,• Maintain an extensive regional network

HSR Operator

• Increase ridership and revenues

Passengers

• Relatively convenient service,• Cheaper fares for business journeys



HSR in Texas – The Future

New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative ApproachBetween HSRs and Airlines

HSR as part of the overall wider transportation network – that includes airports and airlines

An integrated HSR – Airlines system would:• Improve performance• Provide passengers with better service• Increase HSR ridership and revenues• Reduce expenses or losses for airlines

Operating strategies:• Code sharing on select HSR routes• Potential integration of airlines check-in and baggage handling at HSR stations • Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments



Challenges

• Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge– Placement of near other transportation modes

provide access– Population catchment– Activity catchment

• Urban mileage expensive• Activities are dispersed• Possible land use issues• Integration with existing transportation

system (i.e. access)• No funding for Dallas – Arlington – Fort Worth

extension


Challenges

• Profitability– HSR is the most “profitable” type of rail. The

TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3 billion dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud Honore, 2011)

– The AMTRAK Acela Express • only operationally “profitable” line• 45% profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013)

– Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings Institute, 2013)

– Most HSR is at least capital subsidized• Same as other modes• Not perceived the same

• Texas is different than the East Coast and Europe– Population– Activities

• HSR not a solution for urban congestion – May compete with new managed lane on I-30– Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare– May void a concessionaire agreement

• Continuing rural interstate highway congestion


What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

• Economic development opportunities near stations

• New transportation system challenges near stations to provide an adequate and integrated system

• Not the “public transit” answer to intercity travel due to high cost

• A political solution to extending HSR beyond Texas Central Rail initial investment– Public money spent on expensive to construct

track– Winners and missed opportunities


What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

Documents

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas