Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Higher (And
Scarier)Strongest Aircraft Market Outlook In Ten
Years
Presentation To The National Aeronautic AssociationWashington, DCRichard Aboulafia
Vice President, Analysis
Teal Group Corporation
www.tealgroup.com
January 2018
http://www.tealgroup.com/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
18
$ B
illio
ns
World Aircraft Deliveries By Value, 1989-2017
Military Civil
2008-2017 CAGR: 3.7%
2008-2017 CAGR: 2%
Aircraft Markets, Through Good And Bad Years
World New Deliveries CAGR CAGR Change Change
In 2017 (2018 $) ’03-‘08 ’08-‘14 ’14-16 ’16-‘17
Large Jetliners ($102.2 b) 7.5% 9.9% 6.9% 1.3%
Business Aircraft ($20.3 b) 17.2% -2.2% -15.9% -2.0%
Regionals ($7.1 b) 4.6% -3.2% 0.4% -7.6%
Civil Rotorcraft ($4.1 b) 19.8% -1.3% -36.1% 10.4%
Military Rotorcraft($12.9 b) 9.7% 9.0% -16.3% -11.8%
Military Transports ($6.1b) 3.2% -0.7% 7.3% -3.8%
Fighters ($18.6 b) 1.9% 1.1% -0.8% 9.1%
All Civil ($133.8 b) 10.1% 5.0% 0.6% 0.5%
All Military ($41.1 b) 3.8% 3.4% -5.2% -1.6%
Total ($175 b) 8.2% 5.1% -0.8% 0.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% o
f W
orl
d
Va
lue
in
20
18
$ B
illi
on
sUS Aircraft Industry Output
Total US Deliveries By Value US Output % of World
0
20
40
60
80
100
Va
lue
In
20
18
$ B
ns
Cyclicality, Our Long-Forgotten Nemesis
'68-'77
-11 CAGR; 65%
peak-to-trough'80-'84 -13.9% CAGR;
-45% peak-to-trough
'91-'95
-12.5% CAGR; 41%
peak-to-trough
'01-'03
-10.7% CAGR; 28.8%
peak-to-trough
Or
'99-'03
-11 CAGR; 65% peak-to-
trough
'84-'91
16.1% CAGR
'04-17
8% CAGR
A 13-Year
Super Cycle
'95-'99
20.8% CAGR
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
'69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17
Large Jetliner Orders And Deliveries
Deliveries Net Orders
Y/Y Traffic: Well Above Trend2017 1H Totals: RPKs 7.9% (12-year high), FTKs 10.4% (3x 5-year average) 2016 Totals: RPKs 6.3%, ASKs 6.2%, FTKs 3.8%2015 Totals: RPKs 6.5%, ASKs 5.6%,
FTKs 2.2%
Source: IATA
Jul '
08 Oct
Jan
'09
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'10
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'11
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'12
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'13
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'14
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'15
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'16
Apr Ju
lOct
Jan
'17
Apr Ju
lOct
0%
10%
20%
30%
-10%
-20%
RPKs ASKs FTKs
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
GD
P
RP
Ms
Global Economic Growth Outpaced By Travel Demand
RPMs (Bns) GDP (PPP, constant 2011$ Bns)
CAGRs:
2011-2016:
RPMs 6.5%
GDP 3.3%
2007-2016:
RPMs 5.3%
GDP 3.1%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BRIC Deliveries: Peaked, Except For China
China Russia India Brazil
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Deli
ve
rie
s In
20
18
$ B
illi
on
sThe Air Transport Market By Class
Regionals Single Aisles Twin Aisles
1h1997
1h2001
End2004
End2006
End2008
End2009
End2010
End2011
End2012
End2013
End2014
End2015
End2016
End2017
Boeing 130.0 107.8 79.5 199.1 300.4 271.1 270.0 300.1 316.8 365.3 421.9 413.8 399.7 403.1
Airbus 48.6 112.9 115.5 173.0 281.8 268.2 277.6 309.5 321.6 397.4 436.3 456.7 463.0 436.8
Bombardier — — — — — 2.0 3.5 5.2 5.8 7.1 9.5 9.5 9.2 13.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
18
$B
illi
on
sFirm Order Backlog Values
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
A321neo 737MAX9/10 A321ceo 787-8 737-900 A330-200 A330-800
Mid-Market Backlogs: Airbus's Strong Position
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Deli
ve
rie
s in
20
18
$B
illi
on
sJetliner Market Shares By Deliveries
Boeing Airbus COMAC/Irkut
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Deli
ve
rie
s
Va
lue
in
20
18
$ B
illi
on
s"It Was Different That Time," We Hope To One Day Say
Value Units
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 ‘26
'17 $
Millio
ns
Business Aircraft Market by ClassA Gradual Shift Towards Larger Aircraft
Very Light Entry Level Mid-Sized
Super Mid-Sized Large Very Large
Ultra Jetliners+RJs Turboprops
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Th
en
-Ye
ar
$ B
ns
DoD Investment, O+M: Booming Again, In Theory
Procurement RDT&E O&M
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Un
its
Pro
cu
red
Fu
nd
ing
in
FY
18
$ B
illi
on
s
DoD Tactical Aircraft Procurement FY86-FY18A Return to the Peak, But Fundamental Problems Remain
Funding Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27
(Value of Deliveries in '18 Billions)
World Fighter Production Shares
F-35 US F-35 International Undetermined Europe Russia RoW Non-F-35 US
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27
Deli
ve
rie
s in
20
18
$ B
illi
on
sUS Military Fixed Wing Aircraft Deliveries
C-17 AV-8B F/A-18 F-15 F-16 F-22 T-45 T-6 C-130 F-35 T-X B-21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 ‘26
Deli
ve
rie
s in
20
17
$ b
illi
on
sMissiles, Munitions, UAVs: Strong Growth
AAM ASM ADM ATM Anti-Ship SSM Smart munitions UAVs
Global Aircraft Market Outlook In One Page
Market 2018 Risk Elevator Comment
Large Jetliners 4.7%SA ramp dealing w/ production snafus. TA over-
capacity an issue. Watch China, fuel, interest rates
Business Aircraft 4.1%Some signs of hope, but many false starts over
a disappointing decade.
Regionals -13.7%Waiting for E-2; Scope clause is only big risk,
but no growth.
Civil Rotorcraft -1.3%Still tough. Too many new models aimed at a
weak Segment (oil).
Military Rotorcraft 8.9%Trending down as programs of record
end/slow; no risk of accelerated downturn.
Military Transports 7.8%Long-term flat. Only risk is A400M execution;
C130J benefits if it’s a problem.
Fighters 10.0% I like this market. F-35, plus strong Gen 4.5
All Civil 3.5%Jetliner growth compensating for weakness in other
segments; more risk from emerging markets, oil.
All Military 11.0%Global insecurity, Tension, Malice. Special
mission also boosts topline.
Total Industry 5.2% Overall outlook best in ten years.