Higher education a d manpower planning A comparativB stuq of planned and market economies

0. Fulton, A. Gordon, G. Williams

A joint project undertaken by the 110 and the UNESCO European Centre for Higher Education (CEPES)

International Labour Office Geneva

Copyright O lnternational Labour Organisation 1982

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ISBN 92-2-102973-5

First published 1982

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 1: The growth of higher education since the Second World War

CHAPTER 2: The changing role of higher education in Europe

CHAPTER 3: Theoretical issues

CHAPTER 4: A formal model

CHAPTER 5: Making forecasts of qualified manpower requirements

CHAPTER 6: Converting manpower forecasts to educational plans

CHAPTER 7: The implementation of manpower-based plans for higher education

CHAPTER 8: The content of higher education

CHAPTER 9: The role of lifelong education

CHAPTER 10: Woman power

CHAPTER 11: An appraisal of the current situation

REFERENCES I: The country case studies

REFERENCES 11: Other studies

Highl ight ing t h e l i n k s between education, t h e l abour market and employment po l icy has been a major f i e l d of enquiry conducted under t h e ILO's World Employment Programme. A t t h e same time UNESCO and, more p a r t i c u l a r l y i t s European Centre f o r Higher Edu- c a t i o n (CEPES) has been concerned with ob ta in ing a b e t t e r under- s t and ing of t h e problems connected with t h e development of edu- c a t i o n which seeks t o achieve mutual adjustments between t h e man- power requirements of t h e economy and t h e s o c i a l demand f o r p laces i n h igher education.

This convergence of i n t e r e s t , though imbedded i n d i f f e r e n t viewpoints, gave r i s e t o a jo in t p r o j e c t of t h e ILO and CEPES focussing on t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p of h igher educat ion and man- power planning i n seven European count r ies comprising t h r e e market and f o u r c e n t r a l l y planned economies. The country s t u d i e s formed t h e b a s i s f o r t h e p repara t ion of a comparative i n v e s t i g a t i o n which wi th in a common framework reviews d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s 1 experiences i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of var ious manpower planning approaches and techniques t o educat ional planning, e s p e c i a l l y i t s higher- level component. The r e s u l t s of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n a r e t h e sub jec t of t h i s document which was prepared by 0. Fulton, W. Gordon and G. Williams, a l l of t h e I n s t i t u t e of Research and Development i n Post Compulsory Education of t h e Univers i ty of Lancaster , UK.

Beyond t h e value of t h i s document a s a p e n e t r a t i n g and l u c i d l y w r i t t e n account of the cur ren t i s s u e s experienced i n t h e count r ies under review i n t h e twin f i e l d s of manpower and educat ional plan- ning and of t h e ways and means followed t o dea l wi th these i s s u e s , t h e r e is a more genera l meri tor ious f e a t u r e of t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n . This is t h e c r i t i c a l , but a t t h e same time c o n s t r u c t i v e , a p p r a i s a l of t h e a c t u a l and p o t e n t i a l use fu lness a s w e l l a s t h e l i m i t a t i o n s of manpower planning i n general , and i n r e l a t i o n t o educat ional planning i n p a r t i c u l a r .

Seen from t h i s ang le , t h e most important p a r t s of t h e inves- t i g a t i o n cons i s t of t h e d i scuss ion of t h e raison-d ' s t r e 'of manpower planning f o r h igher education and o f t h e var ious approaches, s t a g e s and techniques of a p p l i c a t i o n . This d i scuss ion s t a r t s with a pre- s e n t a t i o n of t h e case f o r and aga ins t manpower planning f o r h igher education. This i s followed by t h e in t roduc t ion of a formal model which, i n t u r n , s e t s t h e point of depar ture f o r a d e t a i l e d review of the var ious manpower f o r e c a s t i n g techniques which have been ap- p l i e d , t h e i r pros and cons and t h e conversions of t h e f o r e c a s t s made with these techniques i n t o opera t iona l educa t iona l plans . The instruments used t o implement manpower-based plans f o r h igher education and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s met a r e f u r t h e r a r e a s of inquiry. Spec ia l a t t e n t i o n i s then given t o a few important s u b j e c t s which have been l a r g e l y neglected i n pas t manpower planning exercises: t h e content of h igher educat ion, t h e r o l e of l i f e - l o n g education and p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women. The document terminates with a b r ie f assessment of t h e present s i t u a t i o n and outlook i n t h e countr ies concerned.

I n s e t t i n g out c l e a r l y t h e var ious approaches, s t a g e s and techniques of manpower f o r e c a s t i n g operat ions f o r educat ional planning and i n d i scuss ing i n d e t a i l a l l t h e f a c t o r s t h a t need t o be t aken i n t o account t o make f u l l use of t h e p o t e n t i a l of t h e manpower planning instrument a s wel l a s t o avoid i t s p i t f a l l s , t h e

study acquires certain traits of a manual on manpower planning combined with practical illustrations provided by the seven coun- try studies. Manpower planning guidelines of this type are in short supply and this is why the document is published under an ILO series of documents which is designed to underpin a longer- term programme of technical cooperation to assist developing coun- tries in upgrading their capacity in manpower planning and labour market information1. This over-all programme is likely to benefit a great deal from the joint ILO/UNESCO investigation presented in this document. Dealing with the problem of the increasing com- plexity of the relationship between manpower requirements and higher education, which pertains to the programme of UNESCO with respect to the promotion of the role of higher education in so- ciety, the study will be of interest to higher education auth- orityes, managers and planners, not only in the European region represented by the seven case studies, but also in other regions of the world.

A special word of acknowledgement is due to Mr. P. Melvyn of the ILOts Manpower Policies Branch and Mr. Keller, former Director of the UNESCO European Centre for Higher Education. They initiat- ed, prepared and monitored the many activities which led to the conduct of the seven country studies and the publication of the present document.

A. $fjord, Director,

European Centre for Higher Education, (cEPES) , Bucharest.

L. Richter, Chief, Manpower Policies Branch, Employment and Development Department,

ILO, Geneva.

ILO, Strengthening manpower and employment information for decision-making - A summary account of a new programme of technical cooperation (Geneva, 1981).

INTRODUCTION

In most industrialised countries, higher education underwent a very rapid expansion during the 1960s and early 1970s. The great increase in enrolments occurred mainly as a result of an inter-action between two different pressures - the needs of economies for highly qualified manpower and increasing social demand for places in higher education. This expansion shows some signs of having slowed down in recent years, during which time there has been growing evidence of imbalances between the supply of and demand for various categories of qualified personnel. In the market economies these imbalances are revealed in extended periods of job search, declining salary differentials in favour of the highly qualified and the under-, mis- or unemployment of graduates. These wmismatchesft, as they are sometimes called, have led to a widening gap between the aspirations and expectations of students and graduates and the job opportunities open to them.

In the centrally planned economies these difficulties have to some extent been avoided mainly as a result of their efforts to plan higher education on the basis, of the manpower needs of the economy. This has in practice normally led to a rather slower growth rate than that of countries which rely on "social demandn, but has also meant that all students can normally expect to have a job waiting for them when they graduate. However, the social demand for places in higher education is often very high, with applicants outnumbering places available in most subject areas. In addition, despite the application of manpower forecasting techniques to higher education, rapid scientific and technological developments, economic growth and structural changes in various branches of the economy have led to some difficulties of adjustment.

In order to understand better the common problems of planning higher education in accordance with society's needs in both centrally planned and market economies, a joint project was under- taken by the International Labour Office (ILO) and the UNESCO European Centre for Higher Education (CEPES), Bucharest, as part of the World Employment Programme, on the links between higher education and manpower planning in seven European countries. The countries which participated in this study, and for which working papers were prepared by national experts, were the Federal Republic of Germany, the German Democratic yepublic, Hungary, the Nether- lands, Poland, Romania and Sweden. This book aims, mainly on the basis of these country reports, to draw out the links between higher education and manpower planning within a comparative frame- work and to review different countriest experiences in planning higher education, so that the knowledge gained over long periods by individual countries can be shared amongst all those interested in policy and planning activities in this area.

The countries involved have in the past sharply differed in their attitudes towards planning higher education on the basis of manpower needs. As we shall see, however, there is some evidence to suggest that the centrally planned economies of socialist Europe and the market economies of Western Europe are beginning to

See References I.

converge in their choice of solutions to the structural and social difficulties which they are experiencing. The pressures of social demand and the inevitable difficulties of forecasting manpower needs a long time in advance are causing the centrally planned countries to review their planning procedures. Imbalances in the supply of and demand for qualified manpower, coupled with the high costs involved in providing places in higher education on the basis of social demand have led some market economies to examine seriously the possibility of linking at least some parts of the higher education system to the known needs of the economy. All countries have attempted, through counselling and guidance pro- cedures, to make students better informed in their choice of courses of study and the careers to which their studies lead.

By reviewing the experiences of four centrally planned and three market economies, this book attempts to bring together varied conceptions of the planning function and to examine in detail the developments in planning higher education which are being devised to meet changing economic, social and technological circumstances.

CHAPTER 1

The a o w t h of higher education s ince t h e Second World War

The period of roughly 30 years s ince t h e end of the Second World War has been marked throughout Europe by i n d u s t r i a l and economic recons t ruc t ion and growth, by r i s i n g populations, r i s i n g standards of l i v i n g and, perhaps more than anything e l s e , by r i s i n g educational standards. A l l of these f a c t o r s a r e i n t e r - connected i n complex ways and one of t h e aims of t h i s book i s t o descr ibe t h e extent t o which some of these connections have been formalised and used a s a bas i s f o r planning. Before embarking on any discussion of the theory o r p rac t i ce of planning pro- cedures, however, we s h a l l b r i e f l y descr ibe the growth of higher education i n Europe, both i n terms of numbers of s tudents and of the i n s t i t u t i o n s i n which they study.

Figure 1.1 shows t h e growth of higher education s ince t h e Second World War i n schematic form, and places Europe and the USSR, a s a whole, wi thin a world-wide context. It can be seen t h a t s tudent numbers i n Europe have grown a t r a t e s very c lose t o those f o r t h e whole developed world and indeed a t r a t e s s i m i l a r t o those f o r t h e other s e c t o r s of t h e developed world, North America and Oceania. I n each case we see t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c r i s i n g curve, culminating i n a doubling of enrolments i n the e a r l y s i x t i e s . This i s followed by a decl ine i n the r a t e of growth i n t h e l a t e s i x t i e s and a f u r t h e r dec l ine i n the e a r l y sevent ies .

Descr ipt ions of t h i s phenomenon a r e commonplace; explanat ions range from discussions of t h e ubiqui ty of t h e S curve i n t h e growth of s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s t o soc io log ica l ly and economically complex accounts of t h e f a c t o r s which may a f f e c t demand. Some of these explanations w i l l be discussed l a t e r . ( 1 t should be noted, however, t h a t whatever i ts more sub t le causes, the high growth r a t e of t h e s i x t i e s was p a r t l y fue l led by population changes, most countr ies having experienced a Itbaby boomtt i n the e a r l y post-war years: i n the Netherlands, f o r example, about h a l f of u n i v e r s i t y expansion can be explained by population growth (Ri tzen, 1977). ) For t h e moment, however, it may be l e s s u s e f u l t o inquire i n t o causat ion than t o discuss some of t h e f e a t u r e s t h a t have accom- panied t h e post-war expansion of numbers.

A t t h e r i s k of s u p e r f i c i a l i t y , one can say t h a t high growth r a t e s tend t o have consequences a t th ree l e v e l s - s o c i e t a l , system-wide and i n s t i t u t i o n a l . A t t he s o c i e t a l l e v e l t h e growth of any one state-supported ' a c t i v i t y cannot continue i n d e f i n i t e l y a t a f a s t e r r a t e than over-al l economic growth, s ince t h e r e must be a l i m i t t o t h e amount of resources t h a t can be expended on one p a r t i c u l a r endeavour. Secondly, a cont inual growth i n t h e out- put of h igh ly t r a i n e d manpower presupposes an e uivalent growth i n the employment opportuni t ies f o r such manpower ?though not neces- s a r i l y i n t h e jobs t r a d i t i o n a l l y performed by graduates) - or the a l t e r n a t i v e s of emigration o r unemployment. However, i n t h e e a r l y years of educational expansion - and, indeed, u n t i l t h e r a t e of growth began t o decl ine - some of t h e increased output from higher education was i n p rac t i ce absorbed by the e x t r a s t a f f i n g needs of educational i n s t i t u t i o n s themselves.

Figure 1.1 - T o t a l number of t h i r d - l e v e l s t u d e n t s by world r e g i o n s 1950-'/3 ( thousands)

WORLD TOTAL

DEVELOPED COUNTRIBS

m O P E AND USSR NORTHERN AMERICA

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

L A T I N AMERICA

ARAB STATES

A t what we have ca l l ed the system-wide l e v e l , another s e t of problems has emerged. I n the post-war per iod, near ly a l l European countr ies have transformed t h e i r i n s t i t u t i o n s of higher education from autonomous or semi-autonomous e n t e r p r i s e s , with considerable freedom of f i n a n c i a l management and of con t ro l of access , t o members of a system, a t l e a s t p a r t l y c e n t r a l l y planned and financed and bearing a very d i f f e r e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e S t a t e (and t o each other) from t h a t of the u n i v e r s i t y i d e a l of previous cen tur ies . 'Phis transformation has , of course, taken place t o d i f f e r e n t ex ten t s and with d i f f e r e n t degrees of de l ibe ra teness , i n d i f f e r e n t countr ies . But the re a r e now no countr ies i n Europe f o r whom the concept of academic freedom s t i l l gives u n i v e r s i t i e s an unqual i f ied r i g h t t o determine e i t h e r t h e s i z e of t h e i r in take or t h e i r sources and l e v e l of finance.

This development i s a n a t u r a l enough consequence of t h e increased s i z e and economic s ignif icance of higher education but it can be seen a s p a r t of a s e r i e s of consequences of expansion, some of which a r e more problematic. Trow (1974) has pointed out t h a t the growth of higher education leads inev i tab ly t o q u a l i t a t i v e r a t h e r than merely quan t i t a t ive change, and has described the post- war period i n Europe a s a change from l16litel1 t o l1massU higher education. When more than a small proportion of t h e age group has access t o higher education, the system and i t s i n s t i t u t i o n s inev i t - ably change character i n many d i f f e r e n t ways. These changes general ly include both the o r ig ins and the des t ina t ions of graduates, the amount of resources expended on teaching and hence t h e kind and q u a l i t y of i n s t r u c t i o n and, indeed, the s t r u c t u r e of higher educa- t i o n i n s t i t u t i o n s . Sooner or l a t e r , it becomes impossible t o con- t inue t o expand u n i v e r s i t i e s of the t161iten type, and new i n s t i t u - t i o n a l forms develop, whether non-university types of higher education o r "comprehensive1' higher education i n s t i t u t i o n s . Thus, i n a l l seven countr ies t h a t a r e s tudied here , the re have been major s t r u c t u r a l changes i n the over-al l shape of the higher education system, accompanied by i n t e r n a l changes i n near ly a l l pre-exis t ing u n i v e r s i t i e s and col leges .

I n t h i s chapter we have chosen t o emphasise t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s between t h e seven count r ies , s ince we f e e l t h a t , while so lu t ions t o problems may d i f f e r , t h e r e i s much i n common i n the problems which a r e faced by a l l seven. But it must be acknowledged t h a t not only a r e so lu t ions qu i te sharply d i f f e r e n t ( i n p a r t i c u l a r , the use of the techniques of manpower planning with which t h i s book i s pr imari ly concerned); s o , t o o , a r e some of the aims of t h e various s o c i e t i e s a s they a f f e c t higher education. These aims w i l l be discussed i n Chapter 2 but it is worth reminding the reader t h a t the re a r e dif ferences on a t l e a s t two l e v e l s . On t h e one hand, broad p o l i t i c a l ob jec t ives , such a s a re l i ance on planning r a t h e r than.on the mechanisms of the market, or an emphasis on s o c i a l equa l i ty a s opposed t o individual achievement, can have p r a c t i c a l impl icat ions , even i f the un iversa l forces of modernisation and expansion tend t o mi t iga te t h e i r impact t o some extent . But more immediate p o l i t i c a l object ives have undeniable and immediate e f f e c t s . For example, some of the s o c i a l i s t economies of Eastern Europe have been anxious t o avoid c rea t ing r i g i d graduate/non- graduate d i s t i n c t i o n s within t h e i r en te rpr i ses . Given the techni- c a l requirements of modern management, those s k i l l e d workers who a r e se lec ted f o r promotion of ten need t o acquire add i t iona l acad- emic s k i l l s . This has l e d these countr ies t o place much grea te r emphasis than i n Western Europe on part-time and evening study f o r adu l t s wi thin higher education. Other examples of what may be ca l l ed middle-level pol icy dif ferences w i l l be seen i n t h e pages t h a t follow.

We t u r n first , however, t o look i n more d e t a i l a t t h e growth of enrolments i n Europe s ince the Second World W a r . Table 1.1 i s intended t o give a broad impression of t h e growth i n enrolments within eachlcountry and not provide a r igorous cross-nat ional comparison. Indeed, it has t o be emphasised t h a t each of the seven countr ies s t a r t e d from q u i t e d i f f e r e n t posi t ions . The l e v e l of i n s t i t u t i o n a l provision which ex i s ted i n 1950 var ied very sub- s t a n t i a l l y ; i n some countr ies t h e war had almost destroyed both the bui ldings and t h e s t a f f which were ava i lab le f o r post-secondary education. It must a l s o be remembered t h a t i n the post-war period European countr ies var ied s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n the amount of resources a t t h e i r d i sposa l f o r education a t any l e v e l , and t h a t t h e o ther l e v e l s of t h e educational system showed perhaps even g r e a t e r d i s - p a r i t i e s between one country and the next. Indeed, severa l of the newly s o c i a l i s t s t a t e s had inher i t ed s u b s t a n t i a l l e v e l s of illi- t e r a c y , which became one of t h e i r f i r s t p r i o r i t i e s f o r educat ional reform. I n Romania, f o r e~arnp le ,~more than one-quarter of t h e population was i l l i t e r a t e i n 1944. When comparing growth r a t e s , it must a l s o be remembered t h a t t a b l e 1.1 takes no account of pop- u l a t i o n d i f fe rences , e i t h e r a s they a f fec ted the over-al l numbers of po e n t i a l s tudents i n any one year , o r indeed a s t h e i r f luc tua- 3 . t i o n s mlght a f f e c t t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r expansion.

Table 1.1 shows t h a t i f measured by UNESCO's f i g u r e s , growth r a t e s have ranged over t h e past quar ter century from roughly three- fo ld ( ~ o m a n i a ) t o wel l over t enfo ld (German Democratic Republic). I n most of these count r ies , t h e r e can have been no comparable period of susta ined growth i n t h e e a r l i e r h i s t o r y of higher educa- t i o n , and t h e r e has c e r t a i n l y never been one on such a s c a l e . I n the seven countr ies taken toge ther , t h e r e were some 470,000 s tudents i n th i rd - leve l education i n 1950 and approximately 2,320,000 i n 1974. Thus, places were found f o r near ly 2 mi l l ion e x t r a s tudents during t h e post-war boom. Indeed, by the seven t ies , both the Federal Republic of Germany and Poland were each e n r o l l i n g more s tuden ts than a l l seven countr ies combined i n 1950.

Figures supplied i n t h e seven ILO/CEPES s tud ies a r e given f i r s t , followed by t h e f i g u r e s f o r " th i rd - leve l education" reported t o UNESCO over t h e years and gublished i n t h e UNESCO S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook and/or i n t h e UNESCO publ ica t ion , m i e n S t a t i s t i c s - Lates t Year Available. A s UNESCO warns, d i f fe rences i n c r i t e r i a f o r enumeration and indeed s t r u c t u r a l d i f fe rences I'impair i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparability". Thus, not even the UNESCO f i g u r e s , and s t i l l l e s s those from the seven case s t u d i e s , can be taken a s a f fo rd ing simple s u p e r f i c i a l comparisons between one country and another. Indeed, i n some cases a comparison between the two s e t s of f i g u r e s f o r t h e same country shows marked d i s - crepancies which may serve a s a warning. With these reserva- t i o n s , however, t a b l e 1.1 may be used t o show t h e rough sca,le of growth within each country.

Pest isanu e t al., 1977.

For example, the age cohor e l i g i b l e f o r admission i n the German Democratic Republic i n 1960 was about twice the s i z e of t h a t i n 1966 (Sachse, 1977), a s a r e s u l t of the sharp drop i n b i r t h s i n t h e f i n a l years of the Second World War.

- 7 -

Table 1.1 - Total enrolments i n post-secondary educat ion, 1950-75

( a ) ILo/CEPES ( b ) UNESCO

Other Third- Univers i t i e s higher l e v e l

education education

F.R. Germanx

German D.R.

1951 1955 1960 1965

Hungary

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1974

Netherlands

N Index (1950: 100)

* 1952 f i g u r e

x I n the e a r l y s i x t i e s the l lcol legesl l were

modified and res t ruc tu red t o exclude UNESCO second-level s t u d i e s which they had pre- v iously undertaken (Sachse, 1977, p. 5 ) .

* 1976 f i g u r e + 1975 f i g u r e

Poland

Romania

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1974

Sweden

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1974

( a ) ILO/CEPES ( b ) UNESCO

Other Third- U n i v e r s i t i e s h igher l e v e l

education education

I n t r a - Extra- mural mural

X Excluding extra-mural courses + Including extra-mural courses

52 007

7 ooo*

46 OOO+

122 000

7 ooo*

* "Early 1950s" f i g u r e s + 1962 f i g u r e s

Index (1950: 100)

Sources: ILO/CEPES: FRG: Htlfner e t a l . , 1977; GDR: ~ a c h s e , 1977; Hungary: Ivan , 1977; Netherlands: R i t zen , 1977; Poland: Kluczynski and Jozefowicz , 1977; Romania: Pes t i sanu e t a l . , 1977; Sweden: Bergendal, 1977; UNESCO, 1960, UNESCO, 1975 and UNESCO, 1977.

It is also noticeable from table 1.1 that in five out of the seven countries (the exceptions being the Federal Republic of Germany and the b ether lands) expansion took place at the fastest rate in the early sixties. In Sweden, Poland, Hungary and the German Democratic Republic, the availability of places more than doubled in the five years between 1960 and 1965. But in most countries expansion has slowed substantially in the seventies. Indeed, in Romania it has virtually ceased; both sectors of higher education have contracted in the German Democratic Republic since 1970 (Sachse, 1977); and there has been a marked contraction in Sweden. Such uneven bursts of growth, often followed by stability or even contraction, must inevitably bring problems in the internal functioning of educational institutions. And, depending on the closeness of the relationship between education and the labour market in the country concerned, such fluctuations can serve as a cause, or at least may be taken as an indicator, of strains in the relationship of supply and demand in the market for highly quali- fied manpower.

The figures given above, for total enrolments and for rates of growth in enrolments, tell us something about the way in which higher education has grown in importance in individual countries in Europe but rather less about its absolute importance, either now or in the past. We shall discuss its financial and economic significance later; at this point it may be useful to examine its direct impact on educational opportunities and on educational achievement by looking at participation rates. These can be measured in various forms. Here, we look at three methods of measurement, where available: crude participation ratios, age group or cohort participation rates, and education levels among the adult population.

The first of these, derived from UNESCO statistics, is shown in table 1.2. Like all such summary rates, the crude participa- tion ratio must be used with caution. It shows the total enrol- ment in third-level education, regardless of the age of students, as a percentage of the total population aged between 20 and 24. It does not, therefore, take account of population fluctuations within the 20-24 group, of different ages of attendance and, perhaps most crucially, of differ nt lengths of courses of study between one country and the next.' With these reservations, however, it can be seen that ratios range from 28 per cent in the German Democratic Republic, through roughly 20 per cent in Sweden, the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands, to 15 per cent in Poland, 11 per cent in Hungary and 8 per cent in Romania.

More informative, however, are the figures provided by the ILO/CEPES country studies on participation rates, either, for age cohorts or among those of a specified age. Once again, there are problems of comparability: different authors use a variety of methods of calculation. Nevertheless, among the market economies of Western Europe, in the Netherlands approximately 13 per cent of

For example, if courses in country "Af1 normally last for two years, compared with four years in country "Bw, an enrolment ratio of 10 per cent in llAn may present exactly the same opportunity for a 20-year old to participate as a ratio of 20 per cent in "BU.

males and 7 per cent of females (figures for the sexes are not summed) aged 20 - the age at which attendance is highest - were attending university or higher vocational education in 1971 (Ritzen, 1977, page 14). For each sex, this is approximately double the proportion in 1958. In the Federal Republic of Germany, by con- trast, 9.6 per cent of 22 year olds - the age of highest attendance - (or 11 per cent of males and 8 per cent of females) were enrolled in universities, technical universities, or teacher training colleges in 1975 (~ilfner et al. 1977, page 8). The comparable figure for 1952 was 2.4 per cent. Finally, in Sweden, in the "late 1960sn, 21 per cent of 20 year olds were enrolled in universities and colleges, compared with 4 per cent in the Ifearly 1 9 5 0 ~ ~ ~ (computed from Bergendal, 1977, page 12). These figmes represent quite a wide variation in partlclpatlon rates among young people at the age of normal university attendance, though it should be noted that the figure for the Federal Republic of Germany, which appears to have the lowest participation rate, does not include the fast increasing number of students attending non-university forms of higher educa- tion. It is also clear that the opportunities for young people to enrol in higher education have increased quite dramatically in the post-war period in all three countries.

Table 1.2 - Gross enrolment ratios* in third-level edueaiiion in seven European countries: latest flgures available

F.R. Germany German D.R. Hungary Netherlands Poland Romania Sweden

Date - Ratio - %

* The total enrolment of students of all ages in third-level education as a proportion of the population of the age group 20-24.

Source: UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1975, table 3.2.

Among the centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe, the German Democratic Republic enrolled, in the period 1971to 1974, 10 per cent of a Ittypical age cohortT1, in university courses and another 12.5 per cent in colleges of various kinds (medical, teacher training and technical). Moreover, planners predicted that another 10.5 per cent of this cohort would in due course undertake studies in tertiary education by correspondence (Sachse, 1977, page 3). In Poland, where figures are given on a basis closer to that of UNESCO, students in higher education constituted in 1974-75 6.7 per cent of young people aged 19-24: an increase from 3.9 per cent in 1960-61 (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977, page 10); but 12 per cent of young people aged 19-23 are described as achieving higher education at some time in their lives. Finally, in Hungary in 1970 students participating in day-course higher education con- stituted 6.3 per cent of the total population "of corresponding ageu, compared with 3.4 per cent in 1950 (Ivan, 1977, page 9). In the centrally planned economies, too, therefore, there has been both a considerable growth in opportunities in higher education and

quite substantial differences between one country and another - differences which can probably be attributed largely to the lasting effects of different levels of economic development in the post-war period.

This expansion of higher education has obviously increased the proportion of graduates in the adult population. In Hungary, the percentage of graduates in the labour force has risen from 1.9 per cent in 1949 to 5.1 per cent in 1970 van, 1977, pages 1-2). In the German Democratic Republic, the labour force in 1971 contained 4.4 per cent university graduates and another 7.4 per cent techni- cal college graduates, compared with 2.4 per cent from universities and 4.7 per cent from technical colleges in 1962 (Sachse, 1977, page 19). In Poland, figures are available only for the educa- tional level of the whole population, employed or not, aged 15 years or over: 3.1 per cent of adults were university graduates in 1974. But about 6 per cent of those aged between 25 and 39 were graduates (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977, page 14). In the Netherlands, 5.0 per cent of males in the labour force were graduates from university or other forms of higher education in 1960; by 1973 this proportion had risen to 9.8 per cent. For employed females, the comparable figures are 4.1 per cent and 9.3 per cent (Ritzen, 1977, page 42). In all these European countries, therefore, it could be argued that graduates are no longer a tiny Blite but a numerically significant section of the labour force and, of course, the steady growth in enrolments means that their presence is most noticeable among the younger employed.

We suggested above that one of the almost universal con- sequences of the growth of higher education seems to be structural reform. The pressures of growth and differentiation seem to lead to three developments: an expansion of non-university higher education; later, a tendency to merge university and non- university forms into more flexible, comprehensive institutions; and an increased emphasis on part-time higher education. Part- time studies serve in some cases merely as an alternative to con- ventional full-time enrolment for young people who wish to enter the labour market sooner, but they are also part of a general tendency to switch the emphasis in higher education away from the traditional clientele of young people with high secondary school qualifications and towards a wider, more adult market, at least part of which holds fewer traditional qualifications. The place of continuing education in manpower planning is discussed in Chapter 9. Here, we shall illustrate these general trends by briefly describing the structure of higher and further education in the seven countries under study.

In the Federal Republic of Germany, 18 universities or techni- cal universities constituted the whole of higher education in 1950. Since that time, the number of university-type institutions has increased to 49. But teacher-training colleges are now counted as part of higher education, as are a large and increasing number of technical colleges. The most recent development is the creation of wcomprehensive academiesu (~esamthochschulen), combining the function of university and technical college under one roof. However, students in higher education in the Federal Republic of Germany are predominantly full-time with evening and correspondence studies assuming little importance. In the Netherlands, uni- versities have been, and still are, distinguished from the sector known as higher vocational education - including a large variety of specialised professional and subprofessional training colleges.

But it i s now government po l i cy t h a t these two s e c t o r s should converge i n adminis t ra t ive s t r u c t u r e , c u r r i c u l a and by i n t e r - changing s t u d e n t s , with a view t o u l t ima te merger. I n Sweden, i n place of two post-war u n i v e r s i t i e s t h e r e a r e now s i x and h e r e , t o o , t h e r e e x i s t s a v a r i e t y of s p e c i a l i s e d but by no means always lower s t a t u s teaching i n s t i t u t i o n s . Under the TJ6811 proposals , however, some of which have a l ready been implemented, Swedish higher education i s being converted i n t o a comprehensive, u n i f i e d s t r u c t u r e , c e n t r a l l y financed but r eg iona l ly adminis tered, wi th s i x reg iona l organisat ions each absorbing one u n i v e r s i t y and t h e f u l l range of higher and f u r t h e r education i n s t i t u t i o n s i n the l o c a l i t y . Indeed, h igher education i n Sweden is t o be decentra l - i s e d and recons t i tu ted i n t o a mul t i loca t iona l s t r u c t u r e , wi th branches o f f e r i n g s t u d i e s a t a l l l e v e l s i n every town. There a r e a l ready s u b s t a n t i a l oppor tun i t i e s f o r h igh ly f l e x i b l e part-t ime s tudy arrangements.

I n c e n t r a l l y planned economies, as we have seen, considerably g r e a t e r emphasis is placed on part-t ime and extra-mural h igher educat ion, f o r a v a r i e t y of p o l i t i c a l and manpower reasons. A s t o the formal i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e i n which f u l l - and part-t ime s t u d i e s t ake p lace , Poland has seen a f l u c t u a t i o n between a two- t i e r and a s i n g l e - t i e r model - a binary system was introduced i n 1948, abandoned i n the l a t e 19509, and p a r t i a l l y res to red i n 1964. It would perhaps not be u n f a i r t o see t h i s f l u c t u a t i o n a s exempli- fying a c o n f l i c t between t h e s o c i a l and economic demands being placed on t h e higher education system. Future plans i n Poland w i l l involve the c rea t ion of comprehensive i n s t i t u t i o n s - com- prehensive not so much i n t h e sense of combining s t u d i e s a t d i f f e r e n t academic l e v e l s but i n combining s t u d i e s i n d i f f e r e n t educat ional cycles. I n t h e f u t u r e , f a r more emphasis w i l l be placed on continuing and recur ren t education f o r those needing r e t r a i n i n g a s we l l a s those who have not previously a t tended higher education. Hungary possesses a f o u r - t i e r system, though the re is a basic two-part d i v i s i o n between u n i v e r s i t y l e v e l and col lege l e v e l s tud ies . Encompassed i n t h e u n i v e r s i t y l e v e l a r e a l a r g e number of s p e c i a l i s e d , monotechnic u n i v e r s i t i e s . I n the post-war period l a rge numbers of new t e c h n i c a l col leges were founded a t a r a t e which was af terwards deemed t o have been excess- ive ; many of these co l l eges have closed o r merged with o the r i n s t i t u t i o n s . I n the f u t u r e , Hungarian higher education i s expected t o move towards comprehensive i n s t i t u t i o n s , wi th uni- v e r s i t i e s a l s o providing co l l ege l e v e l s t u d i e s wi thin t h e i r own wal ls . The general aim of Hungarian planners is t o increase t h e f l e x i b i l i t y of t h e i r i n s t i t u t i o n s i n the l i g h t of t h e i r expecta t ion t h a t t h e educat ional gap between manual and non-manual workers w i l l narrow.

The German Democratic Republic has perhaps the most t r a d i - t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e of higher education wi th in the c e n t r a l l y planned economies. Univers i t i e s and t echn ica l co l l eges a r e kept q u i t e separa te , although both s e c t o r s have grown s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n t h e post-war period. (The s i x t r a d i t i o n a l u n i v e r s i t i e s i n h e r i t e d from the pre-war regime were joined by 19 new I1technical u n i v e r s i t i e s " and a number of other s p e c i a l i s e d i n s t i t u t i o n s i n the u n i v e r s i t y s e c t o r . ) The expecta t ion i s t h a t t h e binary system w i l l be pre- served but t h a t , i n some r e s p e c t s , notably i n c u r r i c u l a , t h e gap between the two types of i n s t i t u t i o n w i l l narrow. Romania possesses a range of i n s t i t u t i o n s providing s t u d i e s f o r varying l eng ths of time. Here, however, u n i v e r s i t i e s appear t o be d i s - t inguished from other i n s t i t u t i o n s such a s t e c h n i c a l schools by

t h e i r sub jec t ma t t e r , which i s academic r a t h e r than a p p l i e d , r a t h e r than by t h e educat ional l e v e l a t which they teach. There do not appear t o be plans f o r g r e a t e r u n i f i c a t i o n of t h e d i f f e r e n t i n s t i - t u t i o n a l types . I n a l l of t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies t h e r e is a g rea t emphasis on part-t ime and correspondence education.

The post-war growth of h igher education has involved economic cos t s . I n some European coun t r i e s , r e a l expenditure per s tuden t i n h igher education has been reduced (e .g . t h e Nether lands) , l a r g e l y a s a r e s u l t of r e l a t i v e s h i f t s i n enrolment towards sub- j e c t s wi th lower i n s t r u c t i o n a l c o s t s (R i t zen , 1977, page 35) . theIn other c o u n t r i e s , c o s t s per s tudent have been increased ( e . g . German Democratic Republ ic) , i n order t o improve the q u a l i t y of i n s t r u c t i o n , But the s c a l e of growth i n enrolments has meant t h a t t o t a l expenditures on higher education have inc reased , not only i n r e a l terms, but a l s o i n most coun t r i e s a s a percentage of publ ic expenditure and of n a t i o n a l income. I n t h e Netherlands where, according t o UNESCO (1975) , t o t a l expenditure on education amounted t o 7.8 per cent of gross n a t i o n a l product (GNP) i n 1974, expenditure on higher education has increased from 0.38 pe r cent of GNP i n 1950 t o over 2.0 per cent i n the 1970s ( ~ i t z e n , 1 9 7 7 , page 35) . I n Sweden, t o t a l educat ional expenditure was 7.7 per cent of GNP i n 1973 (UNESCO, 1975) and h igher education consumed 12.7 per cent of r ecur ren t expenditure on education a t a l l l e v e l s , l u s an undetermined e x t r a amount f o r s tudent g ran t s and loans UNESCO, 1975). I n the Federal Republic of Germany, educat ional

expenditure was 4.1 per cent of GNP i n 1973 (UNESCO, 1975) ; i n h igher educat ion, expenditure represented 0.3 per cent of GNP i n 1962, 0.6 pe r cent i n 1961 and 1 .3 per cent i n 1974 (Hilfner e t a l . , 1977, page 17). Poland and Romania each spent more than 5 per cent of n a t i o n a l lncome on education a s a whole ( ~ l u c z s k i and Jozefowicz, 1977, page 13: Pes t i sanu e t a l . , 1977, page g y a n d , i n Romania a t l e a s t , t h i s share i s increas ing. I n Hungary, which spent 4.6 per cent of n e t m a t e r i a l product (NMP) on education i n 1974 (UNESCO, 1975), h igher education accounted f o r 0.43 per cent of n a t i o n a l income i n 1950; 0.41 per cent i n 1960; and 0.64 per cent i n 1975 ( Ivan , 1977, page 1 ) . F i n a l l y , i n t h e German Democratic Republic, education a s a whole consumed 5 per cent of n a t i o n a l product i n 1960 and 5 . 8 per cent i n 1974, but h igher educa t ion ' s share dropped from 1 .4 per cent t o 1 .2 per cent (Sachse, 1977, page 16) .

We suggested e a r l i e r t h a t inc reases i n expenditure on higher education could not be expected t o continue i n d e f i n i t e l y . This has become inc reas ing ly obvious, e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e market economies a f t e r t h e economic recess ion of t h e e a r l y 1970s. A s HUfner e t a l . (1977, pages 33-35) p u t i t :

It should be not iced t h a t the over -a l l background f o r t h e expansion of pub l i c a c t i v i t y dur ing t h e s i x t i e s and, i n p a r t i - c u l a r , e f f o r t s i n t h e f i e l d s of education and sc ience , were s u b s t a n t i a l gains i n r e a l economic growth. A t t h e same time ... ( t h e r e have been) ... tremendous s t r a i n s on t h e economy - and a l s o on publ ic po l i cy - a f t e r t h e onset of the present economic c r i s i s i n October 1973. With t h e r ecen t h i s t o r y of expansion a s it i s , education and sc ience w i l l a very hard s t and i n defending t h e i r r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n and w i l l encounter s e r i o u s object ions t o any f u r t h e r expansion.

I n t h e planned econoldies a l s o , much of t h e expansion of h igher education has undoubtedly been financed by economic growth and could a l s o be v i ~ l n e r a b l e t o any economic slow-down. I n a l l European coun t r i e s it seems c l e a r t h a t h igher education i n t h e f u t u r e may be required t o prove i t s value. I n t h e next chapter we t u r n t o t h e quest ion of what t h a t value might be.

CHAPTER 2

The changing r o l e of higher education i n Europe

I n order t o understand the way i n which higher education has grown, it is necessary t o examine i t s funct ions . Why should increasing numbers of s tuden ts choose, a s we saw i n Chapter 1, t o prolong t h e i r educational ca ree rs before en te r ing the labour market? And why should s o c i e t i e s choose t o spend increasing proportions of t h e i r resources on t h i s r a t h e r expensive i n s t i t u - t i o n , which is accessible t o only a minority of young people?

Conceptions of the funct ions of higher education vary t o some extent from one soc ie ty t o another. But although the choice of emphasis may d i f f e r , the re seems t o be agreement - a t l e a s t a t a very broad l e v e l of genera l i ty - on the range of purposes which might be served by educating eople t o the higher education l e v e l . As Kluczynski and Jozefowicz P1977) put it:

Education has become the bas ic condition f o r economic development, an instrumental f a c t o r i n personal development and a bas ic source of human happiness and s o c i a l well-being

Other commentators would argue t h a t , i n r e l a t i o n t o economic development, higher education might be b e t t e r described a s " ins t ru - mental" r a t h e r than t tbas ic t t , e spec ia l ly perhaps i n market economies. But the emphasis on t h e l i n k s between the economic, s o c i a l and personal advantages of higher education would be almost un iversa l ly shared.

The economic r o l e of higher education i s , of course, t h e main theme of t h i s book. It is no t , however, undisputed. The arguments r a i s e d by the t t c r e d e n t i a l i s t l t view of education a r e b r i e f l y reviewed i n Chapter 3; e s s e n t i a l l y , they depend on t h e degree t o which the content of t r a i n i n g within educational i n s t i - t u t i o n s is re levan t t o f u t u r e employment o r i s indeed i n any way necessar f o r s a t i s f a c t o r y performance i n a job. Without a n t i - + cipa m g t h e discussion t h a t follows, it i s c l e a r t h a t ciscum- s tances vary too much t o allow one t o reach a simple conclusion f o r o r aga ins t t tcredent ia l ismtt . Whether p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n higher education a c t u a l l y t r a i n s a s tudent e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y ( t h a t i s , i n s p e c i f i c t echn ica l s k i l l s o r i n more general i n t e l - l e c t u a l development) must depend on t h e nature of t h e job i n ques- t i o n , on t h e organisat ion of teaching, t h e nature of assessment and the content of the curriculum. A l l these a reas , with t h e exception of t h e f i r s t , a r e i n p r inc ip le open t o manipulation by educat ional i n s t i t u t i o n s , and hence by the soc ie ty t h a t maintains them. I n other words, whether o r not a doctor o r an engineer, f o r example, r ece ives s p e c i f i c job-related t r a i n i n g within higher education i s a mat ter of choice.

I f we wish t o discover what choices have been made by p a r t i - c u l a r European countr ies , we cannot produce v a l i d , empirically- based answers without examining t h e content of s p e c i f i c cur r icu la i n d e t a i l . (General questions concerning the content of t h e curriculum a r e discussed i n Chapter 8.) We would a l s o need t o i n v e s t i g a t e the question of t t s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y t t of highly qua l i f i ed manpower - which would requ i re t r a c l n g t h e a c t u a l ca ree rs i n employment of graduates with var ious qua l i f i ca t ions . But we can

a t l e a s t examine the views expressed i n var ious countr ies about the purposes of higher education and we can a l s o look a t t h e i r procedures f o r s e l e c t i o n of s tudents and recruitment i n t o t h e job market. It is &ear t h a t i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies higher education is bel ieved t o be performing a s p e c i f i c t r a i n i n g function. This is why manpower planning is undertaken s e r i o u s l y i n these countr ies and i s used t o determine t h e s i z e and p a t t e r n of enrolments i n higher education. I n Poland f o r example, Itthe basic t a s k fac ing the higher education system is] the preparat ion of highly qua l i f i ed profess ional personnel. It c o n s i s t s , i n a planned economy, i n ensuring t h e in f lux of t h e number of special - i s t s needed f o r t h e recons t ruc t ion , transformation and planned economic development of t h e countrytt ( ~ l u c z p s k i and Jozefowicz, 1977). I n Hungary, " the process of planning higher education is ... c lose ly connected with manpower planning and, wi thin t h i s , with t h e planning of highly qua l i f i ed personnel. The determina- t i o n of the number of s tudents admitted t o higher education is based on the concrete t a r g e t s of the n a t i o n a l economic planft ( Ivan, 1977). I n Sweden, by c o n t r a s t , a sharp d i s t i n c t i o n was made, from t h e 1930s t o the 1960s, between two branches of u n i v e r s i t y study: Itwith an over-s impli f icat ion . . . it can be s a i d t h a t t h e expansion of t echn ica l , economic, medical and other c l e a r l y pro- f e s s i o n a l l y o r ien ta ted s t u d i e s with r e s t r i c t e d admission was moti- vated by the needs of t h e economy, whereas t h e open f a c u l t i e s of the u n i v e r s i t i e s were intended t o meet t h e individual demand f o r higher educat iontt ( ~ e r g e n d a l , 1977). It should be added, however, t h a t pa r t of t h e motivation f o r r e s t r i c t i n g e n t r y t o profess ional sub jec t s appears t o have been not so much t o ensure t h e adequate supply of qua l i f i ed manpower but t o p ro tec t t h e profess ions from over-supply, and graduates i n these sub jec t s from unemployment ( ~ e r g e n d a l , 1977). I n other market economies, indeed, t h e l a t t e r is seen a s the primary purpose of using manpower planning t o regulate s tudent enrolments. I n the Netherlands, despi te a s t a t e law da t ing back t o 1876 which appears t o place primary emphasis on manpower t r a i n i n g , manpower planning has only become fashionable i n response t o t h e graduate unemployment of the 1970s (Ri tzen, 1977). To summarise, then , the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, by t h e i r concentration on manpower planning, s t rong ly endorse t h e concept of higher education a s leading t o economic development through the t r a i n i n g of s k i l l e d manpower. Market economies, on the other hand, although they may a l s o accept t h e p r i n c i p l e , have tended u n t i l r ecen t ly t o assume t h a t the operations of t h e labour market w i l l broadly ensure s u f f i c i e n t s k i l l e d manpower f o r develop- ment and have the re fore f e l t a b l e , t o a much grea te r e x t e n t , t o leave the functions of higher education a s a matter t o be negotiated i n t h e market place between teachers , s tudents and employers.

This dif ference can be i l l u s t r a t e d by reference t o European countr ies and i n p a r t i c u l a r t o the ways i n which the balance of sub jec t s taught i n u n i v e r s i t i e s has changed. I n the case of the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, changes i n f i e l d s of study of uni- v e r s i t y graduates a r e taken a s the end-product of a planning pro- cess. The s i m i l a r i t y of circumstances of the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania i n t h e post-wax period - a shortage of s k i l l e d manpower, combined with the need f o r i n d u s t r i a l development, a s an a i d t o post-war growth or reconstruct ion - has l e d t o very s imi la r changes i n pa t te rns of study. I n a l l four count r ies , education and industry were seen a s primary a reas f o r investment and places were made ava i lab le i n s t e a d i l y increasing numbers f o r s tudents preparing f o r teaching and f o r those i n technological and s c i e n t i f i c f i e l d s . I n c o n t r a s t , f i e l d s such a s

law showed a very sharp decl ine i n s tudent numbers, while medicine showed a r e l a t i v e decl ine i n i t s share of s tuden ts , though absolute numbers of medical graduates were s t a b l e o r even increased s l i g h t l y ( Ivan, 1977; Sachse 1977; Kluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977; Pest isanu e t a l . , 19773. Moreover, temporary increases were made where necessary a s , f o r ins tance , i n t h e t r a i n i n g of a g r i c u l t u r a l s p e c i a l i s t s i n Hungary, who were needed i n l a r g e numbers i n t h e e a r l y s tages of c o l l e c t i v i s a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r e , followed by "a sca l ing down of education which was i n f l a t e d t r a n s i t ional ly" ( Ivan, 1977).

The market economies, however, present a more complex case. I n Sweden, a s we have seen, t h e r e was a l a r g e expansion i n t h e f a c u l t i e s with open admission, whereas t h e r e s t r i c t e d f a c u l t i e s were held t o much more modebt l e v e l s of growth. On t h e whole, t h e output from these planned f a c u l t i e s seems t o have been ade- quate t o meet demand ( indeed, by t h e s i x t i e s the only se r ious shortages appear t o have been i n occupations requ i r ing non- un ivers i ty t r a i n i n g ) . It must be remembered, however, t h a t Sweden began the post-war period froin a more economically advanced point than most o ther European count r ies , and without w a r damage. I n the Netherlands. admissions - and hence e x ~ a n s i o n - were not con- t r o l l e d u n t i l 1972, the year i n which a nuierus f ixus was f i r s t introduced. But the r e l a t i v e balance between sub jec t s does not d i f f e r g r e a t l y from other Western European countries: most of t h e spectacular growth of t h e s i x t i e s was concentrated i n the Nether- l ands , a s i t was i n Sweden, i n the s o c i a l sc iences and i n a r t s subjects . Science, technology and medicine grew much more slowly. I n t h e Federal Republic of Germany, however, what was defined a s the undue sluggishness of growth i n s c i e n t i f i c and techn ica l sub- j ec t s caused t h e Government t o c a l l f o r a huge increase i n capaci ty i n 1957 (Htlfner e t a l . , 1977). This in te rven t ion was combined with measures t o provide f i n a n c i a l a ss i s tance t o s tudents and so t o increase s o c i a l demand i n these subject areas .

It i s not immediately apparent, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t e i t h e r of t h e two types of economy have proved more e f f e c t i v e i n a id ing economic growth through the provision of higher education. Given t h e vas t range of d i f fe rences between t h e two groups of s o c i e t i e s , v a l i d comparisons o f the e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n t approaches t o higher educa- t i o n a r e not r e a l l y possible . Furthermore, a s has been pointed out e a r l i e r , t h e apparent ly growing i n t e r e s t o f the market economies i n t h e use of manpower planning probably stems a t l e a s t a s much from t h e s o c i a l probLems associated with t h e excess supply of graduates a s from any an t ic ipa ted economic problems connected with under-supply .

I f we t u r n now t o t h e s o c i a l purposes of higher education, these can be subdivided i n t o two types: those t h a t a r e des i rab le f o r t h e i r own sake and those t h a t a r e pursued pr imari ly a s a means t o some wider s o c i a l goal. An example of the first i s t h e s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l development of t h e population. This is a goal t h a t is endorsed t o some extent i n most s o c i e t i e s but wi th a somewhat g rea te r degree of s p e c i f i c i t y and perhaps with more wholehearted- ness i n t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies. I n Poland, f o r example, a f u t u r e , reformed higher education system w i l l f i t the following descr ip t ion , according t o Kluczynski and Jozefowicz (1977):.

The future soc io-po l i t i ca l and c u l t u r a l development of the na t ion is conditioned by the l e v e l of education of s o c i e t y a s a whole ... a l l l e v e l s of the educat ional system a r e important l i n k s i n t h e shaping of mants persona l i ty , a b i l i t i e s and h a b i t s .., ( thus ) universal secondary education and t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y of higher education w i l l form basic l i n k s i n shaping the ideo log ica l , moral, c u l t u r a l and i n t e l l e c t u a l a t t i t u d e s of a developed s o c i a l i s t society . The generation of i n t e l l i g e n t s i a educated i n higher education schools should be prepared both ideological ly and occupationally f o r c rea t ive p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n bui lding the fu tu re image of the country.

Moreover,

... schools of higher education, i n add i t ion t o imparting knowledge, a r e concerned with forming i n t h e i r graduates t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a c r e a t i v e , s o c i a l l y motivated and a c t i v e personal i ty .

I n t h i s a rea of t t s o c i a l educationtt,Kluczynski and Jozefowicz comment (1977) :

A t p resen t , t h i s funct ion is erformed i n t h e univers i - t i e s by the so-called 3 ideo log ica lb sub jec t s and by youth and s o c i a l organisat ions . Not a l l s tudents a r e within t h e range of e f f e c t i v e inf luence on t h e i r p r a c t i c a l preparat ion f o r a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n soc io-po l i t i ca l l i f e . I n designing the model and preparing t h e programme f o r fu tu re u n i v e r s i t i e s , the following d i rec t ions of a c t i v i t i e s should the re fore be taken i n t o consideration:

F i r s t , e f f o r t s should be made t o increase t h e number of s tudents a c t i v e i n student organisat ions by en t rus t ing them with responsible t a s k s , thus increasing t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e s o c i a l l i f e of t h e i r u n i v e r s i t i e s .

Second, considerat ion should be given t o the idea of including i n t h e programme of schools of higher education some form of p r a c t i c a l preparat ion f o r broadly in te rpre ted p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l work, s p o r t s a c t i v i t i e s , e t c .

Third, t h e system of student p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n research work i n t h e i r u n i v e r s i t i e s should be so developed and the programme of p r a c t i c a l t r a i n i n g should be so improved a s t o make of these forms of a c t i v i t i e s a school of organisat ional a c t i v i t i e s operated by the s tudents themselves.

The educational system i n schools of higher education thus out l ined would, i n f a c t , be a move from the present system of tguardianshipt toward t p a r t n e r s h i p t , toward educa- t i o n by making s tudents more a c t i v e i n t h e i r work and by increasing the extent of self-government and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e t asks entrusted t o them.

I n t h e market economies, s imi la r w a l s a r e o f ten endorsed. For example, t h e V 6 8 " commission i n Sweden mentioned the develop- ment of democracy and i n t e r n a t i o n a l understanding through education a s appropria te aims f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s . However, Bergendal (1977) points out t h e imposs ib i l i ty of mechanically converting such general ised, "hazytt goals i n t o p rec i se ly defined p lans , even

supposing t h a t unanimity could be reached on the r e l a t i v e desira- b i l i t y of a s e r i e s of p o t e n t i a l l y conf l i c t ing aims. But t h i s should not be taken t o imply t h a t s o c i a l goals a r e meaningless, merely t h a t the gap between them and s p e c i f i c plans may be very l a rge .

However, t h e type of s o c i a l goal i n which higher education funct ions a s a means can be discussed with somewhat more precis ion. Here, we r e f e r pr imari ly t o t h e goal of increasing s o c i a l equa l i ty . There i s , of course, a vas t polemical l i t e r a t u r e , which t h e r e is no space t o discuss here , on appropria te d e f i n i t i o n s and measurements of s o c i a l inequa l i ty , on i ts causes and on the appropriateness or f e a s i b i l i t y of remedial measures. One simple po in t , however, may be worth makin . Much recen t discussion, espec ia l ly i n t h e United S t a t e s ?see Jencks e t a l . , 1972) has turned on t h e degree t o which an ind iv idua l ' s educat ional achievement a f f e c t s h i s o r h e r eventual occupational loca t ion and hence on whether it makes sense t o attempt t o achieve g r e a t e r s o c i a l e q u a l i t y by con t ro l l ing o r manipulating access t o education. But the re la t ionsh ip between education and occupation i s , of course, a va r iab le . Cen t ra l ly planned economies, which follow up t h e i r investment i n manpower planning with a f a i r l y high degree of con t ro l over graduates1 occupational choice and over recruitment by e n t e r p r i s e s , obviously expect t o achieve a f a i r l y c lose l i n k between education and occupa- t ion . For them, the re fore , equal is ing access t o education i s undoubtedly seen both a s a s t e p towards g rea te r e f f i c iency i n f i l l i n g jobs demanding high s k i l l s and a l s o a s a means towards reducing inequa l i ty i n soc ie ty a t l a rge . "Intergenerat i o n a l s o c i a l mobi l i ty is achieved through school s tud ies . Consequently, school is the means of achieving the object ive of a more open societyll ( Ivan , 1977) : Secondly, a s Jencks and h i s co-authors point o u t , education 1s i t s e l f a major consumption good - a point of view which, a s we s h a l l s e e , is shared by t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies. Thus, equa l i s ing access t o education i s one way of reducing i n e q u a l i t i e s i n access t o consumption goods.

There a r e , of course, many groups i n soc ie ty which appear t o have unequal access t o higher education. Some of t h e s e , such a s those people who do not complete t h e i r secondary education, o r who score low marks i n u n i v e r s i t y entrance examinations, a r e not neces- s a r i l y problematic. But two sources of inequa l i ty cause concern i n almost every European country - sex and socio-economic o r ig in . Sex d i f fe rences i n educat ional and occupational achievement, which appear t o have diminished somewhat i n recent years (though a t very d i f f e r e n t r a t e s i n d i f f e r e n t count r ies ) a r e d e a l t with a s a s p e c i a l i s sue i n Chapter 10. But socio-economic d i f fe rences a r e sometimes seen a s a more c e n t r a l p o l i t i c a l concern. They a r e defined i n a v a r i e t y of ways. I n Romania, f o r example, t h e primary d i f fe rence is measured i n terms of the urban or r u r a l o r ig ins of s tudents . According t o Pest isanu e t a l . (1977), t h e proportion of ful l - t ime s tuden ts from r u r a l o r i g i n increased i n Romania from 33 per cent in 1965-66 t o 38 per cent i n 1974-75, a change which represen t s a r a t h e r l a r g e r increase i n r e l a t i v e oppor tun i t i es , s ince t h e r u r a l population declined from 66 per cent t o 57 per cent i n the same period. The view of these authors is t h a t r u r a l o r i g i n s a r e no longer a source of r e s t r i c t i o n on access t o higher education. I n Hungary, some concern is ev iden t ly f e l t about t h e b e t t e r educational f a c i l i t i e s ava i lab le i n towns and c i t i e s , which may discourage those of r u r a l o r i g i n who p r e f e r not t o move too f a r from t h e i r homes. But t h e problem i s a l s o posed i n terms of pa ren ta l occupations: admissions t o u n i v e r s i t y i n

Hungary a r e no longer formally r e l a t e d t o s o c i a l o r i g i n s , which had previously been a c r i t e r i o n f o r p r e f e r e n t i a l admission ( f o r the ch i ld ren of workers). Thus, a t l e a s t i n law, equal oppor- t u n i t y now e x i s t s . However, the re i s a tendency f o r t h e chi ldren of i n t e l l e c t u a l s t o be disproport ionately a t t r a c t e d t o i n t e l l e c t u a l careers and, indeed, f o r t h e i r parents t o place e x t r a emphasis on the value of education van, 1977). Attempts a r e the re fore being made, not t o re introduce p r e f e r e n t i a l quotas, but t o c r e a t e a l e s s s t r a t i f i e d secondary school system and t o provide e x t r a opportuni t ies f o r part-t ime study f o r those a l ready a t work. I n the German Democratic Republic, too , com rehensive secondary education ( i n "general polytechnic s c h o o l s t t ~ up t o the age of 16 , and part-t ime and correspondence courses i n higher education s p e c i a l l y designed f o r s k i l l e d workers, have been introduced f o r s imi la r reasons (Sachse , 1977).

I n Poland, the proportion of s tudents (on fu l l - t ime , i n t r a - mural courses i n higher education) from workerst f ami l ies rose from 9 per cent i n 1939 t o 24 per cent i n 1949 and 36 per cent i n 1958. By 1967 it had dropped t o 26 per cent hut has now (1974) reached 38 per cent. The proportion of s tudents from peasant fami l ies - 8 per cent i n 1939 - rose t o 22 per cent a f t e r the war but has now declined t o 11 per cent. Once aga in , i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of a c t u a l opportuni t ies i s complicated by the changing occupAtiona1 s t r u c t u r e but p a r t of t h e decl ine i n opportuni t ies f o r workers is s a i d t o have r e s u l t e d from t h e int roduct ion of a t r i p a r t i t e s t r u c t u r e of secondary education, of which only one non-vocational s e c t o r , qua l i f i ed pup i l s f o r u n i v e r s i t y entrance. Measures aimed a t increasing democratisation of access include a comprehensive system of secondary education, approved i n p r inc ip le i n 1973 and t o be introduced s h o r t l y ; a system of " s o c i a l p re fe ren t ia t ion" f o r u n i v e r s i t y entrance, t o compensate f o r inadequate schooling and Itthe c u l t u r a l and s o c i a l d i s p a r i t i e s which i n h i b i t t h e chances of school l eavers of peasant and worker o r i g i n t t ; and an increasing re l i ance on correspondence and extra-mural forms of higher educa- t i o n , which general ly enro l roughly 80 e r cent of t h e i r s tudents from those of worker or peasant o r i g i n ?see Kluczynski and Jozefowice, 1977). Indeed, wi thin extra-mural higher education, t h e focus of equa l i sa t ion of opportuni t ies has s h i f t e d from d i s p a r i t i e s between strata t o d i s p a r i t i e s between generations.

I n market economies, measures t o increase s o c i a l equa l i ty i n access t o higher education have, i n e n e r a l , been l e s s s p e c i f i c . P a r t l y , it has been widely believed f a s i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies) t h a t i n e q u a l i t i e s i n higher education or ig ina te i n d i f f e r e n t choices and opportuni t ies a t a much e a r l i e r age, and t h a t remedial measures a r e best concentrated i n t h e secondary or even primary school system. It a l s o appears t o be the case t h a t s t r u c t u r a l reforms of school-level education cannot by themselves e l iminate inequal i ty . P a r t l y , however, it has been hoped t h a t the expansion of higher education would i n i t s e l f have r e l a t i v e l y more b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s on opportuni t ies f o r working-class ch i ld ren , who may have been espec ia l ly l i k e l y t o be excluded from B l i t e i n s t i t u t i o n s . This hope appears t o have been j u s t i f i e d i n some countr ies such a s Sweden; l e s s so i n o thers , where working- c l a s s enrolment was not o r i g i n a l l y so low. (1n Sweden, the proportion of s tudents from workerst famil ies was about 12 per cent i n the e a r l y 1950s and 21 per cent i n the l a t e 1960s (Bergendal, 1977).) But s t a t e in te rven t ion has of ten taken a form not seen i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, of t r y i n g t o reduce the oppor- t u n i t y cos t s f o r working-class chi ldren by universal o r means-tested

f i n a n c i a l a ss i s tance . This seems t o be a l o g i c a l s t r a t e g y where re l i ance is placed on market mechanisms. However, where sub- s i d i e s o r g ran t s a re un iversa l ly a v a i l a b l e , even i f means-tested, it i s o f ten found t h a t middle-class ch i ld ren benef i t t o a l a r g e ex ten t , and l i t t l e or no wdemocratisationtf may occur.

There i s a t h i r d , broadly s o c i a l funct ion of educat ion, which has i ts counterpart a t t h e individual l e v e l . This i s , i n f a c t , t o meet the demand f o r higher education expressed by individuals . Individuals may demand higher education both a s a means of improving t h e i r own pos i t ion i n t h e occupational s t r u c t u r e , t h a t i s , a s a means of economic self-development, and a l s o a s a way t o s a t i s f y nnon-vocatianaltt c u l t u r a l needs. I n t h e German Democratic Republic, f 6 r example, t h i s l a t t e r need is recognised a s one t o which the S t a t e must now respond, a s wel l a s t o t h e economic need f o r h igh ly t ra ined manpower.

The responses of European countr ies t o the t t s o c i a l demand" f o r higher education have u n t i l now been sharply d i f f e r e n t . Many market economies have u n t i l r ecen t ly regarded enrolment a s a r l g h t , a t l e a s t f o r those who have achieved a standard q u a l i f i c a t i o n i n secondary education. Among these countr ies have been t h e Nether- lands, t h e Federal Republic of Germany and (with the exception of c e r t a i n f a c u l t i e s spec i f i ed e a r l i e r ) , Sweden. A l l of these count r ies , however, have i n the l a s t few years introduced r e s t r i c t i o n s on e n t r y , i n the form of numerus clausus ( f i x u s ) i n some of the most heav i ly subscribed or over-crowded f a c u l t i e s . Such r e s t r i c t i o n s have general ly been j u s t i f i e d mainly a s attempts t o preserve the standard of education f o r those admitted but they have obviously been used t o con t ro l the cos t s of providing adequate teaching s t a f f and f a c i l i t i e s and t o reduce the prospects of graduate unemployment. Other market economies, however, (such a s ~ r i t a i n ) have resembled t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies i n being qu i te prepared t o f i x l i m i t s on enrolment i n general , although s o c i a l demand has always played a s u b s t a n t i a l pa r t i n determining the l e v e l of these l i m i t s . ( I t should not be fo rgo t ten t h a t demand i s never a spontaneous expression of individual w i l l s : i n a l l of t h e market economies it has proved i t s e l f s e n s i t i v e not only t o changing opportuni t ies but a l s o t o manipulation by t h e authori - t i e s , f o r example v i a changes i n t u i t i o n f e e s and s tudent mainten- ance l e v e l s . )

It i s not possible here t o examine a l l the ways i n which s o c i a l demand has responded t o p a r t i c u l a r circumstances o r indeed the fundamental reasons why demand rose f o r so many years a f t e r the w a r . A l l t h a t we can do i s t o examine the most obvious measures of v i s i b l e demand i n the countr ies under study. I n the case of cou- o r subjects wi thin count r ies , with open enrolment p o l i c i e s , expressed demand can simply be measured by enrolment r a t e s example,^ of which have al ready been given i n Chapter 1 ) . Where enrolment i s r e s t r i c t e d t o a f ixed number of p laces , we need t o look a t r a t e s of app l ica t ion f o r admission. Among the market economies, t h e Federal Republic of Germany began t o impose r e s t r i c t i o n s i n the l a t e 1960s: the extent t o which enrolments were r e s t r a i n e d can be seen in . the f igure of 24 400 app l ica t ions i n medicine f o r 4,000 ava i lab le places i n 1974-75 ( ~ l l f n e r e t a l . , 1977). Although it i s believed t h a t , up t o the present t ime, t o t a l demand has been near t o or possibly below t h e t o t a l supply of places (meaning t h a t , while some f i e l d s a r e over-subscribed, others have spare capac i ty ) , t h i s s i t u a t i o n does not seem l i k e l y t o con- t inue . Indeed, the number of young people achieving e n t r y

q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i s fo recas t t o r i s e by over 50 per cent by 1980, whereas an increase in capaci ty is thought t o be unl ikely. Thus, the Federal Republic is l i k e l y t o experience s u b s t a n t i a l excess s o c i a l demand i n the next few gears. ( ~ r o p o s a l s have been made t o t r y t o accommodate a l l applica,hts, never theless , by shortening the average l eng th of s tudy.) I n the Netherlands, the numerus f ixus has been a m l i e d i n the u n i v e r s i t i e s only i n a few s u b j e c t s , mostly medical-reiated, and even i n these sub jec t s app l ica t ions appear to- be running a t not more than two f o r every place. It is thought t h a t most unsuccessful app l ican t s enro l i n other sub jec t s where the re i s s t i l l spare capacity. I n higher vocat ional education, however, although s t a t i s t i c s a r e qu i te u n r e l i a b l e , the re is thought t o be excess s o c i a l demand, which forces an unknown number of unsuccessful appl icants onto t h e labour market. I n Sweden, f i n a l l y , demand f o r places i n many of the open f a c u l t i e s has now dropped f a r below i t s maximum and excess demand i s not foreseen a s a problem f o r t h e system a s a whole. Even i n the r e s t r i c t e d f a c u l t i e s , where app l ica t ions i n the l a t e s i x t i e s were a t the average r a t e of two f o r every p lace , t h e pressure has declined (without any increase i n capaci ty) t o near 1 .7 : l . I n medicine, however, app l ica t ions have stayed cons i s ten t ly high, a t more than t e n f o r every place. I n summary, these examples of market economies appear t o be experiencing qu i te d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of s o c i a l demand r e l a t i v e t o capaci ty and t o be adopting a v a r i e t y of p o l i c i e s ranging from qua l i f i ed response t o r e s t r a i n t .

Unlike some market economies i n Europe, Sweden, t h e Nether- lands and t h e Federal Republic of Germany, a l l s e t a standard q u a l i f i c a t i o n f o r en t ry t o u n i v e r s i t y , r a t h e r than using competi- t i v e entrance examinations. By c o n t r a s t , most of the c e n t r a l l y planned economies not only use entrance examinations a s a way of con t ro l l ing demand; some ( f o r example, the German Democratic Republic) a l s o control e n t r y t o the type of secondary school which prepares young people f o r un ivers i ty entry . Where s o c i a l demand i s control led i n t h i s way, app l ica t ion r a t i o s do not have the same meaning a s i n the Netherlands o r the Federal Republic of Germany. Nevertheless, a c t u a l app l ica t ions a re monitored i n most c e n t r a l l y planned count r ies , not only t o ensure t h a t t h e l e v e l is adequate t o f i l l ava i lab le p laces , but a l s o i n order t o take some account of excess demand. I n the German Democratic Republic, f o r example, while admission t o matr iculat ion- level sen ior secondary schools (EOS and BAA) i s con t ro l l ed , i t i s kept a t a r a t i o of approximately 1.2 or 1 . 3 f o r every one u n i v e r s i t y place. Despite t h i s , i n some d i s c i p l i n e s (such a s medicine and phi lology) , the r a t i o of appl i - cants t o admissions is f a r higher. I n both Poland and Hungary it i s recognised t h a t the re i s a s u b s t a n t i a l d e f i c i t of ava i lab le p laces , i n Hungary c rea t ing considerable " s o c i a l pressureu on higher education i n s t i t u t i o n s . Over t h e l a s t 15 years roughly 40 per cent of those who appl ied t o take the entrance examination have a c t u a l l y been admitted t o higher education; again, the re a re marked d i f fe rences between f i e l d s of s tudy, with the toughest competition i n sub jec t s such a s philosophy and a r t s , n a t u r a l sc iences , f i n e a r t s , a r t s and c r a f t s , and physical education van, 1977). I n Poland, even a f t e r allowing f o r the near 50 per cent of appl icants who f a i l e d the un ivers i ty entrance examination, the re was a d e f i c i t of places f o r those who passed of between 15 and 22 per cent between the years 1965 t o 1975 (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977). A technique used i n both countr ies f o r reducing some of the s o c i a l pressure i s t o allow unsuccessful appl icants t o re-apply i n succeeding years.

Although the tendency should not be overstated, it is possible to see quite strong elements of convergence in recent years between the market and the centrally planned economies in their response to the pressures on higher education of, respectively, economic needs and social demand. On the one hand, market economies which have been committed without qualification and often as a constitutional imperative to provide places for all qualified applicants, and had thus treated social demand as the sole formal criterion determining the size and shape of enrolment, have begun to restrict enrolments directly, as well as using techniques to stimulate or restrain the underlying demand. (This change should not be exaggerated: attempts in the Federal Republic of Germany to take even crude account of manpower needs have not been highly regarded and there is still an overwhelming tendency to regard the "right to education" as a basic and inalienable civil right.) Meanwhile, the centrally planned economies have moved from an overwhelming emphasis on planning in response to economic needs towards an increasing acknowledgement of the importance of social demand, which is seen as a symptom of generally rising expectations in an era of increasing private and public affluence.

So far in this chapter we have discussed the possible uses of higher education to society and to the individual. Underlying the discussion, of course, has been the question of the degree to which these various functions are, or could be made, amenable to rational planning. But the discussion has been confined to the role of higher education in its teaching capacity. It must not be forgotten that universities (and, to a lesser extent, some more specialised professional schools) are also places where research is carried out. Indeed, in many of the countries under discussion, these are the primary or even only location for all but the most immediately applicable research which may be carried out within the enterprises that need it. Even with fairly free interchange of information (which does not occur in all fields) research, or the function of creating knowledge may well be as critical for economic growth as the training of manpower. And, unlike the manpower training function, productive research, especially of a fundamental kind, seems to be much less amenable to planning. Research teams and their environments seem often to be fragile and unpredictable. Moreover, and more seriously for the planner, the productive organisation of research may well not fit easily into a rational plan for teaching. There is an obvious temptation to try to divorce research from teaching, by placing tlie research function in separate institutes or centres. But it is not entirely fortuitous that research is conducted in universities. In the right circumstances, research and teaching seem to be mutually reinforcing and indeed can cross-fertilize each other. There are clear dangers, of which the manpower planner may be particularly aware, in allowing research to dominate; those that affect the content of curricula will be discussed in Chapter 8. But for as long at least as research is one of the major functions undertaken by universities, the need to encourage it may very frequently inhibit the implementation of otherwise sensible man- power plans.

CHAPTER 3

Theoretical issues

The case for and against manpower planning

Higher education institutions perform a variety of social rules - they create, store and disseminate knowledge, they are important avenues of social advancement for individuals, they provide vocational preparation, they are both guardians and critics of the cultural traditions of a society and so on. How- ever, the central task of nearly all higher education institutions is teaching. This teaching role can at its simplest be seen as an input-output system in which an input of students with certain levels and types of knowledge inter-act with teachers, books, equipment, other students etc., and is converted to an output of graduates with higher levels or different types of knowledge.

The size and structure of this input-output system can be determined either by the amount and type of inputs available to be processed or it can be determined by the desired levels and composition of the output from the system. More specifically, the provision of teaching facilities in higher education can be based upon two alternatives -and, in many ways, opposed criteria - the estimated demand for places by individual students, or the estimated demand by the economy for the qualified manpower pro- vided by higher education. Both approaches can involve the use of statistical and econometric techniques and the collection and analysis of large amounts of quantitative data. Technical aspects of manpower planning for higher education provide the subject matter of Chapters 4, 5 and 6. Our present concern is with more general conceptual issues.

There are broadly two reasons why it might be thought desirable to plan the provision of higher education on the basis of manpower needs. The first is that higher education makes extremely heavy demands on society's resources and it is inefficient and inequitable to treat it simply as a luxury consumption good for a relatively small number of people. The second is that even in countries where higher education provision is based uponsocial demand a very high proportion of the students do themselves consider that it has vocational implications for them (see for example King et al. 1974). Unless appropriate jobs are likely to be available for students their social demand for higher education is itself based on a mis- apprehension.

However, the fact that a strong case can be made for using manpower considerations as one of the main bases for planning the provision of higher education does not necessarily mean that it is possible to do so. There are two main reasons why it might be desirable but impossible. The first is that the amount of information required and the frequent changes brought about by technological progress and social change may make it virtually impossible to assemble the data necessary in order to make useful manpower forecasts. The second, particularly prevalent in market economies, is that the nature of the economic system is such that there may be no clear relationship between the economic activity of an individual and his educational qualifications. According to this view the economic system is characterised by great flexi- bility and numerous possibilities of substitution between different categories of manpower.

The r e l a t i o n s h i p between educational q u a l i f i c a t i o n and economic a c t i v i t y is c e r t a i n l y complex and d i f f e r s between economic systems and even between d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s of the same economy. The most s t ra ightforward conceptual isat ion, a s a l ready mentioned, is an extension of the input-output system used a s the main b a s i s fo r economic planning i n t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies and pioneered i n t h e United S t a t e s by Wassily Leont ieff . I n b r i e f , the s t a r t i n g point f o r t h i s system i s a s e t of required f i n a l outputs of goods and se rv ices which a r e given by assumptions about consumer preferences and more general s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l p r i o r i t i e s . The p o t e n t i a l a v a i l a b i l i t y of such f i n a l goods and se rv ices is usua l ly assumed t o increase through time a s a r e s u l t of c a p i t a l accumulation, technological progress and improvements, through education and t r a i n i n g , i n t h e over-al l q u a l i t y of t h e labour force. I n order t o provide these f i n a l goods and se rv ices a s e r i e s of intermediate outputs i s required. To produce a motor car of a p a r t i c u l a r type, f o r example, r equ i res a known amount of s t e e l , of p l a s t i c , of g l a s s , of paint and so on. It a l s o requ i res inpu ts of labour of various k inds , s k i l l e d machinis ts , assembly-line workers, meta l lu rg i s t s and, i f we consider not jus t the making of a motor car but the organisat ion and marketing of motor-car production, t h e r e i s a l s o a need f o r admin is t ra to rs , s a l e s s t a f f , accountants and so on. Thus, i f economic plans o r fo recas t s envisage a c e r t a i n output of motor ca rs f o r consumers t o enjoy, they imply a p a r t i c u l a r capaci ty f o r the s t e e l and p l a s t i c s i n d u s t r i e s and a l s o a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l of a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h e - various kinds of s k i l l e d workers required i n the production and s a l e of motor cars .

Shortages of any of these s p e c i a l i s t s can cause bot t lenecks and prevent t h e r e a l i s a t i o n of the planned output of c a r s i n the same way a s does a shortage of s t e e l and p l a s t i c . Thus, economic planning, a s wel l a s ensuring appropria te production of o ther intermediate goods, must a l s o ensure t h a t the re a r e adequate numbers o f s k i l l e d workers.

Provided t h a t young people have s u f f i c i e n t basic general education and f a c i l i t y i n bas ic manipulative operat ions , many of the s k i l l s required i n employment can be learned a t , o r c lose t o , the place of hork. However, i n some ca tegor ies of employment a much higher l e v e l of general education and a much more theore t i - c a l l y based vocat ional preparat ion i s normally required i f t h e t asks a r e t o be performed successful ly . Higher education pro- vides t h i s general education and t h e o r e t i c a l l y based vocat ional preparat ion a t considerable publ ic expense. It i s , t h e r e f o r e , necessary t o t r e a t t h e planning of higher education a s an i n t e g r a l pa r t of over-al l economic planning, although there a r e a number of s p e c i a l problems, r e l a t e d i n p a r t i c u l a r t o the long-time horizon over which higher education decis ions must be viewed.

A long-time horizon is necessary f o r two reasons: f i r s t , because people with high-level q u a l i f i c a t i o n s s t a y i n t h e labour force f o r up t o 40 years and, second, the minimum leng th of time f o r a higher education course is t h r e e t o four years ; a consider- ably longer period is needed i n order t o ensure t h a t t e a c h e r s , bui ldings , e t c . a r e ava i lab le .

The problems associated with t h i s long-time horizon a r e s t r e s s e d by oponents of manpower planning. They claim t h a t , while it may be v a l i d t o view t h e economic system a t a p a r t i c u l a r point i n time a s a matrix of inputs and outputs , such a view is

l e s s v a l i d the longer t h e time horizon under review. Input-output c o e f f i c i e n t s change f o r two separate reasons. One is t h a t techno- l o g i c a l progress changes the values of t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s , of ten i n unpredictable ways. The advent, f o r example, of computerised control of machine t o o l s or of banking operations can r a d i c a l l y change t h e requirements f o r workers with p a r t i c u l a r kinds of s k i l l s . The input-output re la t ionsh ips a r e a l s o a f fec ted by changes i n the p r ices of t h e d i f f e r e n t f a c t o r s of production. For example, t h e p robab i l i ty t h a t petroleum f u e l w i l l become scarcer before t h e end of the present century i s l i k e l y t o lead t o the commercial develop- ment of s u b s t i t u t e s f o r t h e i n t e r n a l combustion engine. This w i l l have considerable implicat ions f o r t h e types of s k i l l t h a t a r e needed amongst people who a r e a l ready i n the labour force and those who w i l l be enter ing it during the next few years.

One way out of t h i s dilemma i s through l i fe - long education which is discussed i n Chapter 9. There it w i l l be shown t h a t l i f e - long education i s one way of reconci l ing t h e manpower demand and s o c i a l demand approaches t o higher education planning.

However, another view i s t h a t the s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y between d i f f e r e n t kinds of s k i l l s and the changing r e l a t i v e demands f o r d i f f e r e n t kinds of spec ia l i sed manpower a r e such persuasive aspects of any growing economy t h a t t h e s e , r a t h e r than the f ixed c o e f f i c i e n t s of the input-output system, must be the s t a r t i n g point f o r the planning of higher education.

While i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, it is argued t h a t the re can be no l o g i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n between manpower needs and requirements - i n t h i s context both a r e r e l a t e d t o s p e c i f i c economic, s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l goals or t a r g e t s - many w r i t e r s i n Western Europe have drawn a d i s t i n c t i o n between needs, requirements and demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower.

1. The need r e f e r s t o the number of workers considered des i rab le t o achieve a general pol icy object ive such a s economic growth or p a r t i c u l a r kinds of c u l t u r a l development.

2. A r e uirement r e f e r s t o the number of workers t echn ica l ly ne-achieve a s p e c i f i c ob jec t ive , f o r example, a given l e v e l of output i n the motor-car industry or a t a r g e t teacher-pupil r a t i o . It is assumed t h a t once economic and s o c i a l t a r g e t s have been s e t , the r e uirement f o r p a r t i c u l a r categories of manpower i s d e t e r m i n b t h e ava i lab le techniques of production or through demographic development or something s imilar .

3. The demand r e f e r s t o the re la t ionsh ip between the wage r a t e and the number of jobs f o r which employers a r e w i l l i n g t o h i r e people a t t h a t r a t e .

According t o the c r i t i c s who argue along these l i n e s , manpower planners make a l o g i c a l mistake i n assuming t h a t t h e r e uirements f o r qua l i f i ed manpower a r e necessa r i ly the same a s th* economic demand.

Opponents of manpower planning a l s o draw a t t e n t i o n t o the f a c t t h a t t h e demand f o r s k i l l s can be met i n various ways. While the re may be an optimal way of meeting it i n t h e sense of providing the necessary manpower a t t h e lowest c o s t , the re is no s i n l e way i n which it be met. I f employing en te rpr i ses a r e d e t o

obtain a s u f f i c i e n t supply of a p a r t i c u l a r kind of manpower, t h e earnings of people with those s k i l l s w i l l r i s e and t h i s w i l l both a t t r a c t people from other occupations and encourage others t o undertake t h e necessary t r a i n i n g . It is a l s o the case t h a t , while a p a r t i c u l a r job may be done most e f f i c i e n t l y by someone with a p a r t i c u l a r kind of t r a i n i n g , it can perhaps be done some- what l e s s e f f e c t i v e l y but a t much l e s s cos t by someone with another kind of t r a in ing .

The debate between those economic planners who advoeate manpower fo recas t ing f o r educat ional planning and those who sympathise with t h e aims but doubt i t s p r a c t i c a b i l i t y can perhaps best be summarised by means of an example. Let us suppose a decis ion is taken t o bu i ld a new general h o s p i t a l i n a p a r t i c u l a r urban area . S t a t i s t i c a l records can show the probable mix of p a t i e n t s who w i l l seek treatment a t t h e hosp i ta l . It is poss ib le , t h e r e f o r e , t o spec i fy how many surgeons, how many physicians , how many o b s t e t r i c i a n s , how many ward s i s t e r s , how many s t a f f nurses , how many nurs ing a u x i l i a r i e s , how many s e c r e t a r i e s , how many por te r s and so on w i l l be required t o s t a f f t h i s hosp i ta l . I f t h i s i s done f o r t h e whole of t h e h e a l t h s e r v i c e s , it shows the t o t a l n a t i o n a l need f o r medically qua l i f i ed people over a p a r t i - cular planning period. I f it i s done f o r the whole economy, it gives the t o t a l need f o r a l l k inds of qua l i f i ed people.

Opponents claim t h a t such an ana lys i s t r e a t s t h e economy a s a machine and not a s an economic system. There a r e many d i f f e r e n t ways of s t a f f i n g a h o s p i t a l and even more of s t a f f i n g a h e a l t h service . I f t h e r e is a bottleneck i n the supply of doc tors , o r i f the p r ice of t h e i r se rv ices i s high, many of t h e i r t a sks can be performed by nurses. I f s e c r e t a r i e s a r e expensive, doctors and nurses f i n d themselves doing more of t h e i r own paper work, thus having l e s s time f o r t h e i r medical work which means, i n t u r n , t h a t more of them w i l l apparent ly be I1neededu. Over the h e a l t h se rv ices a s a whole, the p o s s i b i l i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n between h o s p i t a l , general p r a c t i t i o n e r and l o c a l a u t h o r i t y welfare se rv ices is considerable. Whether a mother with a young baby i s advised by a consultant p a e d i a t r i c i a n , a general p r a c t i t i o n e r or a h e a l t h v i s i t o r , is i n p a r t an economic decis ion. It is not inev i tab le t h a t an an t ic ipa ted llX1l thousand b i r t h s w i l l l l require" so many paed ia t r i c ians , so many d i s t r i c t nurses and so on. I f t h i s i s the case f o r t h e h e a l t h se rv ice , it i s even more t r u e f o r the economy a s a whole where t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i o n between d i f f e r e n t kinds of manpower a r e much g r e a t e r . 1

The approaches of various European countries

Chapter 2 has shown t h a t t h e r e a re fundamental d i f fe rences between countr ies i n t h e i r a t t i t u d e s towards using f o r e c a s t s of qua l i f i ed manpower needs a s the main bas i s f o r t h e provis ion of higher education. On the one hand a r e those which have f o r many years used manpower f o r e c a s t s a s t h e main c r i t e r i o n determining the s i z e and or ien ta t ion of t h e i r higher education systems; on the other a r e those which, u n t i l r ecen t ly a t l e a s t , have been somewhat s c e p t i c a l about t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y and the p o s s i b i l i t y of

This example i s adapted from Planning Models i n Education by Pe te r Armitage and Gareth Williams, Open Univers i ty Press , 1976.

planning higher education in accordance with qua l i f i ed manpower needs. Broadly speaking, the d i s t i n c t i o n i s between t h e c e n t r a l l y planned economies, on the one hand, and t h e market economies, on the other . I n t h e planned economies t h e formation of qua l i f i ed manpower is seen a s a p a r t of over-al l economic and s o c i a l plan- ning. It is considered i n e f f i c i e n t and s o c i a l l y undesirable t o provide expensive higher education f a c i l i t i e s f o r s tudents t o a t t end courses which do not provide them with q u a l i f i c a t i o n s f o r which t h e r e is a perceived s o c i a l o r economic need. It i s equal ly wasteful i f shortages of qua l i f i ed manpower r e s u l t i n bot t lenecks i n economic growth. I n c e n t r a l l y planned economies, t h e r e f o r e , the provis ion of the r i g h t quan t i ty and q u a l i t y of human c a p i t a l i s considered a t l e a s t a s important a s planning the provis ion of physical c a p i t a l .

I n the market economies, on the other hand, much g r e a t e r s t r e s s i s l a i d upon t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of adaptat ion of graduates t o labour market needs a f t e r they have completed t h e i r higher education. This adaptat ion can come about p.artly through $he pr ice mechanism which w i l l r a i s e t h e r e l a t i v e s a l a r i e s of those whose s k i l l s a r e scarce and lower the earnings of those i n p l e n t i - f u l supply, and p a r t l y through the length of t h e waiting period during which newly-qualified graduates with d i f f e r e n t kinds of s k i l l s have t o search f o r t h e i r f i r s t job. Htifner e t a l . (1977) point out t h a t , provided t h a t the education and employment systems a r e not subjected t o excessive s t r a i n , these mechanisms enable qu i te wide v a r i a t i o n s i n the supply and demand condi t ions f o r graduates t o be taken care of through labour market adjustments. Figure 3.1 shows various ways i n which such adjustments can come about.

Despite t h e fundamental di f ferences between these two approaches t o planning t h e provision of higher education and despi te t h e fundamentally d i f f e r e n t politico-economic ideologies which underl ie them, it i s possible t o comprehend both within the s m e t h e o r e t i c a l framework. The aim of t h i s chapter and the next one is t o provide such a framework. I n t h e present chapter we consider t h e general t h e o r e t i c a l bas i s of manpower fo recas t ing while, i n t h e nex t , we present a more formal model.

There a r e four fundamentally d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the r o l e of higher education i n preparing young people f o r the world of work.

1. During the course of t h e i r higher educat ion, s tudents may acquire s p e c i f i c knowledge and s k i l l s which they a r e able t o use d i r e c t l y i n subsequent employment. Thus, some l e a r n t o become mechanical engineers , o thers doctors , o thers lawyers, o thers managers and so on.

2. Higher education does not teach s p e c i f i c occupational s k i l l s but r a t h e r provides s tudents with a general i n t e l l e c t u a l background which enables them t o l e a r n quickly the s p e c i f i c s k i l l s required i n the job i n which they eventual ly f i n d themselves. According t o t h i s model it does not mat ter very much what i s s tudied i n higher education provided t h a t it i s i n t e l l e c t u a l l y challenging and s t imulates the s tudent t o l o g i c a l and c rea t ive thought. The object ive i s t o acquire the general i n t e l l e c t u a l t o o l s which w i l l enable t h e new graduate t o quickly l e a r n required occupational s k i l l s and t o adapt t o changing requirements a s h i s career develops.

Figure 3 .1 - Basic pressures working t o reduce disequi l ibrAa on labour markets

k s e q u i l i b r i a Disequilibrium 1 Disequilibrium 2 S D D S

\ - -

(open ( o r se r ious ( se r ious labour

Supply and hidden) unemploy- shortage)

demand s ide ment )

Labour supply s ide Postponement of e n t r y o r re-entry t o labour market, e a r l i e r re t i rement from t h e labour f o r c e , i f r i s k of unemployment high or m a t t r a c t i v e working conditions.

Search f o r new job opportuni t ies : o ther regions o r even count r ies , neighbouring or even completely d i f f e r e n t p rofess iona l a reas ; coupled with tougher competition between app l ican t s , r a i s i n g of standards.

Attempts t o fo rma l ly r e s t r i c t e n t r y t o and f a c i l i t a t e e x i t from labour markets.

Willingness t o accept lower hourly wages, lower s a l a r i e s , lower income, l e s s a t t r a c t - ive work con t rac t s , higher workload,

Willingness t o e n t e r labour force e a r l i e r , t o s t a longer (within l i m i t s y .

Readiness t o f i g h t f o r b e t t e r working condi- t ions , higher s h o r t e r hours ?;%sibly negat ively a f f e c t i n g point above).

Readiness t o r e l a x labour market e n t r y and e x i t provis ions ( i n t e r a l i a , perform- ance s tandards , fo re igners ) .

give up f r inge

Disequilibrium 1 Disequilibrium 2 S D D S (open (o r ser ious ( se r ious labour hidden) unemploy- shortage)

demand s ide ment )

Labour demand s ide Attempts t o lower wages, increase workloads, reduce f r inge benef i ts .

Attempts t o s h i f t from cap i ta l - in tens ive t o labour-intensive processes and technologies i f ( t h e redundant) labour can be bought a t lower pr ice .

Readiness t o pay higher wages, improve working conditions.

Active search f o r addi- t i o n a l sources of labour v i a lowering of stand- a r d s , "importingv labour from abroad, keeping labour beyond normal re t i rement age.

Attempts t o s h i f t t o labour-saving tech- niques.

Attempts t o use r e l a - t i v e l y abundant Attempts t o move pro- ins tead of r e l a t i v e l y duction t o a r e a s scaree categories of (countr ies) wi th ava i l - labour. able and/or cheaper

labour. Raising of standards f o r app l ican t s , low- e r ing of beginner 's earnings.

Higher propensity t o f i r e , higher se lec t - i v i t y i n matters of promotion and advancement.

Source: Hilfner e t a l . , 1977. -

A t h i r d p o s s i b i l i t y is t h a t higher education n e i t h e r provides s p e c i f i c s k i l l s nor general i n t e l l e c t u a l t r a i n i n g but r a t h e r is the f i n a l s tage of a process of s e l e c t i o n of young people with t h e basic i n t e l l e c t u a l a t t r i b u t e s t h a t a r e required i n p rofess iona l , admin is t ra t ive , s c i e n t i f i c and techn ica l jobs. According t o t h i s model t h e important aspect of higher educa- t i o n i s n e i t h e r the content nor t h e i n t e l l e c t u a l st imulus t h a t it o f f e r s but r a t h e r t h e successive examination hurdles which eliminate a c e r t a i n number of young people a t each s tage and o r i e n t a t e them towards employment t h a t is apparent ly inappropria te f o r t h e i r innate or acquired l e v e l s of a b i l i t y .

A f o u r t h view i s t h a t any l i n k between higher education and subsequent employment i s f o r t u i t o u s and i r se levan t . Accord- ing t o t h i s view, which is popular amongst some educational t h e o r i s t s i n Western Europe, the purpose of higher education is the personal development of t h e individual s tudent which can be h e l p f u l , harmful o r n e u t r a l , with regard t o h i s sub- sequent employment. An extreme vers ion of t h i s view has been put by Maslow (1973): t h e i d e a l col lege t h e r e would be no c r e d i t s , no degrees and no required courses. A person would l e a r n what he wanted t o l e a r n ... The i d e a l col lege could be a kind of educational r e t r e a t i n which you could t r y t o f i n d yourself ; f i n d out what you l i k e and want; what you a r e and a r e not good at.!!

At t i tudes t o the use of manpower fo recas t ing as a b a s i s f o r higher education planning a r e ob%iously strongly-influenced by views about the r e l a t i v e v a l i d i t y of each of these models. The matter is complicated, however, by t h e f a c t t h a t although t h e r e is a sharp d i s t i n c t i o n between t h e four views a s s t a t e d , a l l four seem t o be v a l i d i n some aspec t s and there a r e complex in te r - re la t ionah ips between them.

One f a c t o r not given s u f f i c i e n t a t t e n t i o n i n m o s t of t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s t h a t "higher educationw c o n s i s t s of many d i f f e r e n t a c t i v i t i e s . Some p a r t s , e. g. medical education, a r e normally geared t o f a i r l y s p e c i f i c vocat ional t r a i n i n g ; o thers , e.g. courses i n philosophy, a r e concerned mainly with improving t h e q u a l i t y of t h e s t u d e n t t s a b i l i t y t o reason; s t i l l o thers a r e indeed concerned with grading s tudents according t o some measure of t h e i r inherent o r acquired i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y while, a t t h e same time, providing the opportunity f o r individual s tudents t o mature i n t e l l e c t u a l l y and morally. Any u n i v e r s i t y normally performs a l l these se rv ices f o r i t s s tuden ts , though the balance between them can d i f f e r very much between d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s o r d i f f e r e n t p a r t s of t h e same i n s t i t u t i o n .

Those countr ies which use fo recas t s of qua l i f i ed manpower needs a s t h e main b a s i s f o r educational planning consider t h e f i r s t model t o be the most appropria te . Countries which a r e prepared l a r g e l y t o accede t o the %ocia l demandft of young people tend t o endorse the second model; they have a much s t ronger b e l i e f i n t h e general educat ional funct ions of higher educat ion, i n providing graduates with an i n t e l l e c t u a l background t h a t pre- pares them f o r on-the-job t r a i n i n g i n a wide range of occupations.

I n p r a c t i c e , many of t h e countr ies which o r i e n t a t e t h e i r provision of ful l - t ime higher education i n accordance with e s t i - mates of manpower needs a r e a l s o qu i te l i k e l y t o endorse t h e t h i r d model. They take the view t h a t competition f o r en t ry t o higher

education is t h e best way o f ensuring t h a t those who a r e i n t e l - l e c t u a l l y most able proceed t o high-level occupations. I n Poland, f o r example, "entry examinations remain a p re requ is i t e f o r t h e evaluat ion of candidates and serve a s t h e instrument of assessment of t h e i r a b i l i t y t o compete f o r t h e f a c u l t y places ava i lab le t t ( ~ l u c z y n s k i and Jozefowicz, 1977).

S imi la r ly , i n Hungary, "The prescribed numbers of admission t o higher education allow t h e most t a len ted individuals of t h e age group due t o continue s t u d i e s t o obtain access t o i n t e l l e c t u a l careers t t ( Ivan, 1977).

S imi la r ly , i n Romania, ttEverybody who has f in i shed t h e lyc6e and who has obtained t h e baccalaureat has f r e e access without d i s t i n c t i o n by sex, age, n a t i o n a l i t y , t o any subject of s tudy i n higher education on t h e b a s i s of an en t ry examination (Pest isanu e t a l . , 1977).

It should be pointed out t h a t provision i s made i n these examination procedures t o ensure t h a t a l l school l eavers have a more or l e s s equal chance of demonstrating t h e i r a b i l i t y . I n Poland, "Graduates from secondary schools i n which teachers a r e not of a very high c a l i b r e and educational and s c i e n t i f i c equipment is poor have, a s a r u l e , g rea te r d i f f i c u l t y i n passing u n i v e r s i t y examinations than t h e i r colleagues from schools b e t t e r equipped both i n terms of q u a l i t i e s of s t a f f and f a c i l i t i e s . I n recogni- t i o n of the negative e f f e c t of these d i f fe rences and of t h e c u l t u r a l and s o c i a l d i s p a r i t i e s which i n h i b i t the chances of school l eavers of peasant and worker o r i g i n from competing on an equal bas i s f o r u n i v e r s i t y e n t r y , a system of s o c i a l p re fe ren t ia - t i o n was b u i l t i n t o u n i v e r s i t y admissions procedure (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz , 1977).

Thus, i n countr ies which plan higher education provis ion mainly on the bas i s of manpower needs, it is never theless con- s idered important t o s e l e c t those s tudents who show themselves t o be i n t e l l e c t u a l l y most competent. There is t h u s , i m p l i c i t l y a t l e a s t , a s e l e c t i o n funct ion a s wel l a s a t r a i n i n g funct ion per- formed by the higher education system.

Conversely, i n those countr ies which claim t o provide higher education mainly on the b a s i s of s o c i a l demand, the re is a grow- ing tendency both t o take manpower considerat ions i n t o account f o r a t l e a s t p a r t of higher education and a l s o t o adopt s e l e c t i o n procedures a t the point of entry . I n t h e Netherlands, f o r example, while the u n i v e r s i t i e s have throughout the post-1945 period used s o c i a l demand a s t h e main bas i s f o r t h e provis ion of places t h e r e has been increasing emphasis on t h e expansion of higher vocat ional education t o s a t i s f y s p e c i f i c manpower needs (Ri tzen, 1977). S imi la r ly , i n Sweden, t h e r e has been a d i s - t i n c t i o n between u n i v e r s i t i e s and other forms of post-secondary education. The non-university i n s t i t u t i o n s , a s i n t h e Nether- l ands , have been much more o r ien ta ted than t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s towards s p e c i f i c occupational t r a i n i n g (Bergendal, 1977).

Furthermore, i n Sweden, t h e Netherlands and t h e Federal Republic of Germany, the re is an increasing tendency t o limit t h e number of en t ran t s t o higher education through the use of numerus clausus and numerus f ixus . Although the main reasons f o r 3he imposition of a numerus clausus a r e t h e esca la t ing cos t s of higher education

and the pressures on capacity it is clear that manpower considera- tions are an important underlying factor. In none of the countries, however, is it explicitly admitted that estimates of future man- power need% play a significant role in detemining the numbers of students to be admitted in each branch of higher education. Most countries of Western Europe and North America have expressed con- cern about the future emplopent prospects of university graduates unless the rate of growth in their numbers is considerably curtailed.

Even in countries, therefore, in which there is a predisposi- tion to plan higher education provision mainly on the basis of social demand there is growing concern about the economic implica- tions of such decisions.

Conversely if higher education is planned mainly on the basis of qualified manpower needs this has implications for the extent to which the demand for it by individuals can be satisfied. In Hungary, for example, the proportion of admissions to applicants for full-time study in higher education declined from 66 per cent in 1960 to 56 per cent in 1970 and increasing numbers had to be diverted to part-time study in evening and correspondence courses (Ivan, 1977).

In crude terms, therefore, the situation is that countries which use social demand as the main criterion for the provision of higher education have the problems of adjustment at the point where new graduates enter the labour force. Those which aim primarily to meet qualified manpower needs have to regulate carefully the number of students admitted to various branches of higher education. The choice between them is partly a matter of ideology and partly a matter of what is most practicable in the economic and social conditions of individual countries. There can be no doubt that unemployment or underemployment of expensively educated graduates is economically inefficient and causes considerable personal distress.

In the centrally planned economies the starting point is the importance of human resources in the social and economic develop- ment of the country. "The basic task facing the higher education system - the preparation of highly qualified personnel - consists, in a planned economy, in ensuring the influx of the number of specialists needed for the reconstruction, transformation and planned economic development of the country.I1 (~luczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977.)

In these countries V!he process of planning higher education is in general closely connected with manpower planning, and, within this, with the planning of highly qualified personnel. The determination of the number of students admitted to higher educa- tion, is based on the concrete targets of the national economic planu. van, 1977.) The situation differs somewhat from country to country but the developnents since 1950 in most countries of Eastern Europe appear to have been broadly similar.

During the period up to the 1950s, although the aim was to orientate higher education systems towards the satisfaction of man- power needs, the absence of statistics and of a suitable planning framework meant that much of the planning was of an ad hoc nature and essentially short term. In Hungary for example, "The main characteristic of the initial period was that the estimation of

requirements covered a medium-term plan period at the most. As transformation of the structure of school output and, through this, influence on the structure of the highly qualified workforce take a relatively long time (at least one cycle of education starting from the time of decision) the manpower plans elaborated in the initial years (around 1950 j were not really medium-term calcula- tions, just short-term onesff. van, 1977. )

The reasons for this slow start are not without significance. In Hungary, IfThe 15 to 20 years following the end of the Second World War were characterised by a shortage of highly qualified personnel ... Because of the enormous number of vacancies, no need for a longer term assessment of demand for highly qualified person- nel was feltff. Furthermore, "No long term plan relating to the whole of the national economy had yet been elaborated. There was no background forecasting perspective of economic and social development against which an assessment of demand for highly qualified personnel could have been drawn lZpff. po van, 1977.) From the early 1960s onwards there began a much more systematic concern with the development of educational and high level man- power planning. Compared with the earlier plans the planning periods were milch longer - 15 to 20 years - and they were directed by the Central Planning Office assisted by many sectoral working groups which undertook studies on, for example, the impact of automation on the activities of technical specialists, the impact of business mechanisation on office work and international com- parisons of high level personnel.

In Poland and Romania there has been a similar gradual develop- ment of the statistical basis for manpower forecasting and the planning mechanisms for making and implementing manpower plans. "A variable which played an important role in perfecting the methods of manpower and educational planning was progress, more or less regular, in developing theoretical foundations, proper procedures and a statistical base for developinent planningff. (Pestisanu et al., 1977. )

Similarly in Poland, "Up to the early 1960s employment planning (in poland) was more in the nature of a passive allocation of graduates whose number and specialisation were predetermined by decisions made in earlier periods. In decision making on the allocation of resources for the development of vocational schools at various levels and their curricula, the guiding principle was, of course, the expected demand for skilled personnel, but the time horizon for analysing it was too close and the statistical and methodological bases for research were not very reliable .... In the second half of the 1960s, the first practical steps were taken towards the transition from the indicative planning stage to actual planning .... Beginning in 1964 and on the basis of the current personnel census, work started for the first time on the prepara- tion of local skilled personnel balance sheets with proper con- sideration being given to suggestions made by the production and services enterprises concerned. Also in 1954 a special body called the Inter-Ministry Committee for Qualified Personnel Requirements was associated with the Planning Commission. This Committee, whose members include representatives of the ministries responsible for training i in is try of Science, Higher Education and Technology, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Culture and Arts) and of the employer ministries, operates in specially appointed expert teams which:

1. evaluate methods of forecasting manpower requirements in particular fields of the economy and services;

2. make appropriate forecast calculations; and

3. evaluate alternative education variants and their cost.

We may say that the employment and education planning system initiated in the second half of the 1960s allowed for the feedback effect between the labour sphere and the education sphere, thus acquiring the characteristics of effective planning." (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977.)

On two points manpower planners in centrally planned economies seem to be in complete agreement. The first is that for manpower forecasts to be of any real value for planning higher education they need to be made for very long periods ahead - at least 15 or 20 years. In Romania for example "It is the long term development plan of the national economy which constitutes the basis for the calculation of qualified manpower needsn. (~estisanu et al.,1977.) In Hungary "A long term assessment of high level manpower demand is justified as the impact of education on the structure of the work- force becomes manifest only after a longer time. The yearly and medium-term plans for high-level manpower demand are of help basically to manpower management; they are of only secondary importance from the angle of education planningu. (Ivan, 1977.) Similarly in Poland "Annual and five year balance sheets are, therefore, important instruments of current employment policy. They cannot provide a basis, however, for changing the number of occupational structure specialists. This possibility is rovided only by long range qualified personnel balance sheets". TKluczynski and Jozefowicz, 1977.) This discussion is further developed in Chapter 6.

The second point which emerges clearly from the experiences of the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania is that manpower planning is an important part of over-all economic planning and needs to be seen as a large-scale activity requiring substantial resources and close co-operation with all sectors of the economy. This is not how manpower planning has normally been seen in the market economies of Western Europe. In the Netherlands, for example, which has some claims to be "a planner's and forecaster's paradise (and) the first of the market economies to establish machinery for systematic econoaic planning within the context of over-all govern- ment policy, manpower and educational planning are not a strong- hold ... manpower planning exercises are not undertaken on a regular basis and tend to be ad hoc" (Ritzen, 1977).

In the Federal Republic of Germany man ower planning has con- sisted largely of a few individual studies fEdding 1968 based on international comparisons, KMK 1963, based on crude projections, Riese 1967 based on an input-output model) and is not an integral part of the educational planning machinery. In Sweden, there have been several serious attempts at forecasting national needs for qualified manpower of which the most recent was that of the U68 Report on higher education. However, even in Sweden, the forecasts have been fairly aggregated econometric exercises and have not involved the detailed interaction with economic planning and employ- ing organisations that occurs in the centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe: Vhe calculation of manpower needs starts from a

forecast of the number of gainfully employed in major economic sectors. On the basis mainly of information on occupations in the 1960 and 1965 population censuses and in the labour force surveys for 1970 the number of gainfully employed in various occupations have been extrapolated to 1980" (Bergendal, 1977). There is certainly not in Sweden anything corresponding to the regular on- going manpower planning activities of centrally planned countries.

In brief, as we might expect, where manpower planning is taken seriously, considerable resources are devoted to it; where there is more scepticism about its desirability or feasibility far less resources are devoted to it. Not surprisingly, countries which do make substantial efforts to relate higher education to manBower needs are convinced of its desirability and feasibility while those which devote fewer resources are less sure about its desirability and very doubtful about its feasibility - at least in their types of economic system.

However, in many of the countries of Western Europe which rejected manpower forecasting during the 1960s there are now fears of substantial unemployment and underemployment of higher education graduates as a result of the massive expansion of the 1960s which was initiated to fulfil social demand. In even the richest countries of the world it is coming to be considered economically wasteful and socially dangerous to ignore the relations between the education and employment systems. The focus of manpower forecast- ing has therefore to some extent shifted. In the early 1960s the prime concern was to provide sufficient highly educated manpower to remove possible bottlenecks to economic growth. In the mid- 1970s the main concern in Western Europe is to assess the employ- ment opportunities available for all the graduates who are likely to be produced as a result of the pressure of social demand for univer si t y places .

So far we have been concerned mainly with the possibility and the desirability of using manpower forecasts as a basis for planning the provision of higher education. The general conclusion is that while there are considerable difficulties in making reliable fore- casts of qualified manpower needs, particularly in market economies but also in planned economies, it is increasingly difficult to avoid attempting to do so.

There is, however, another less frequently noted set of difficulties. A concern with high level manpower is in most countries a concern about relatively well-paid manpower. If the number of people who are permitted to obtain the qualifications that enable them to take up relatively well-paid employment is to be limited by the forecasts of manpower requirements, admission to an institution of higher education is in effect a passport to a higher standard of living than most of the community is able to enjoy. Certainly steps can be taken to ensure that chances of access to higher education are equitably distributed and do not depend for example solely upon a student's family background. But nevertheless the outcome is likely to be one in which higher educa- tion brings specially important economic advantages to those who are fortunate enough to be able to obtain it.

The obvious answer, the abolition of earnings differentials between different categories of manpower, has not been attempted as a conscious act of policy in any country.

A r e l a t e d problem i s t h a t manpower planning may requ i re f a i r l y t i g h t control of t h e a v a i l a b l e supply of highly qua l i f i ed manpower so t h a t graduates a r e d i rec ted i n t o those a r e a s of employment where they a r e needed most, p a r t i c u l a r l y during t h e e a r l y years of t h e i r working l i f e . The extent t o which t h i s i s acceptable i s a matter of debate. Some people recommend achieving i t through t h e use of s a l a r y d i f f e r e n t i a l s and monetary incent ives . Another way i s through systems of vocat ional guidance and counsel- l i n g which a r e discussed i n Chapter 7 of t h i s book.

F i n a l l y i n t h i s chapter we must consider some of t h e problems which a r i s e i n t r a n s l a t i n g manpower needs i n t o required enrolments i n higher education. A t y p i c a l manpo-er fo recas t would give es t imates of the required s tock of graduates of var ious kinds - 5 , 10, 15 and perhaps 20 years ahead. I n order t o der ive an educational plan from such es t imates t h e f i r s t s t e p i s t o convert them i n t o a required annual output of graduates. (Account must a l s o be taken of those members of t h e labour force who w i l l be l o s t each year through death and re t i rement . ) I f t h e fo recas t manpower requirements grow a t a constant r a t e , then t h e output from t h e education system and the number of s tuden ts w i l l a l s o have t o r i s e a t a more o r less constant r a t e , which poses no techn ica l problems. But i f t h e t rend of manpower needs v a r i e s , t h i s may i n d i c a t e qu i te sharp changes i n the required number of s tudents . A r i s i n g r a t e of growth of manpower needs w i l l r equ i re a more than proportionate r a t e of increase i n s tudent numbers; whereas a l e v e l l i n g off w i l l r equ i re a more than proport ionately reduced r a t e of growth or possibly even a decl ine. A good example of such f l u c t u a t i o n s i s provided by the s i t u a t i o n of teacher t r a i n i n g i n many count r ies of Western Europe. A s a r e s u l t of decl ining b i r t h r a t e s , t h e popula- t i o n of many Western European countr ies i s approaching s t a b i l i t y . The annual number of new teachers required i s the re fore dec l in ing sharply. This i n t u r n l eads t o a much more than proport ionate decl ine i n t h e number of s tudents needed i n teacher t r a i n i n g col leges . Such f l u c t u a t i o n s c r e a t e se r ious problems f o r educa- t i o n a l planning. It i s s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t i n a l l the countr ies which make se r ious use of manpower fo recas t ing it i s emphasised t h a t one cons t ra in t which must be observed i s t h a t t h e number of s tuden ts enrol led i n higher education should not be subject t o v i o l e n t f luc tua t ions . I n other words, i t may be preferable t o endure manpower shortages f o r many years r a t h e r than t o expand c e r t a i n branches of higher education t o l e v e l s which a r e not maintainable i n t h e long run.

CHAPTER 4

A formal model

So far manpower planning for higher education has been con- sidered in very general terms. In this chapter a formal model is outlined which is intended to provide a point of departure for the detailed discussion in Chapters 5 and 6 of the techniques of man- power forecasting and of converting these forecasts into operational educational plans.

There are broadly two approaches to forecasting qualified man- power needs. One is to set targets for particular occupational categories. Most economically advanced countries have done this, with varying degrees of success for medical doctors and school teachers (Ahamad and Blaug 19733. The second is through the use of an economic planning model in which the requirements for many kinds of highly qualified manpower emerge as part of an integrated economic plan. In both cases the link with higher education is by means of a vector of required outputs of graduates, which can be used to determine the structure of higher education and how many new entrants there will be in each branch.

In countries with extensive experience of manpower planning both approaches are normally used. For some occupations, targets are set on the basis of what are considered to be social or administrative needs, in the light of the availability of public funds to pay for them. Teachers, doctors, nurses, social workers, civil servants are obvious examples of such manpower. Other occupational groups are required, not to provide public sector services but because they produce or help to produce a saleable commodity or service.

Both types of forecasts are included in the schematic framework shown in figure 4.1. It shows a national educational planning exercise, based on manpower needs, that consists of a series of 11 steps. It is based on a simplified and aggregated manpower fore- casting exercise that was recently undertaken by one of the authors in Greece.

The first step is a prediction of the level and pattern of economic activity at some future date. The main problem here is that forecasts are needed for periods of ten to twenty years - a much longer perspective than is needed for most other aspects of econonic planning. For example in Poland "The long-range nature of demand for qualified manpower predetermines the way it is estimated ... the demand for specialists has to be based on a long- range concept of the development of branches and industries in the whole economy with proper consideration being given to new plants, to the expected demographic situation and to a number of other factors which will influence the volume and occupational structure of employment elements which can hardly be taken into account at the enterprise level. For this reason, the long-range demand for qualified personnel is estimated in macro-economic terms at the ministry levelff (~luczynski and Jozef owicz, 1977). Even in centrally planned economies such very long-term perspectives must rely largely on econometric forecasting techniques rather than detailed economic plans.

Figure 4 . 1

SCHEMATIC EXAMPLE OF MANPOWER FORECASTING EXERCISE

tern o f economic

I sector

I

Manpower whose (2) needs are soc in _, l y determined

Required inflow Inactive

i e d manpower

Required number

o f graduates

/ education

by new students

The fact that manpower forecasts for educational plans must be long term has caused one commentator to claim that "because of the uncertainties of technological progress if for no other reason, man- power forecasting is likely to remain an art rather than a precise science .... The art of manpower forecasting for educational plan- ning is to find reasonable and generally acceptable bases for the establishment of targets. Clearly such an approach is in many ways not so intellectually satisfying as the attempt to establish man- power requirements linked to certain GNP growth targets: it is, however, more realistic. Public debate about the reasonableness or otherwise of the targets is as important a part of the educa- tional planning exercise as the calculation of sophisticated fore- casting coefficientsw (OECD, 1967). In the light of this last comment it is interesting to note that detailed discussions amongst the various authorities involved is a central part of the manpower planning machinery in Poland. "The proposals of the ministries are discussed at meetings in which the representatives of these ministries, the management of the Planning Commission and Scientific Workers participate; then, if necessary, the proposals are corrected and approved .... On the set of problems of project- ing the more important social, economic, technical factors and the main proportions of the prospective manpower structure that exert an impact on the evolution of the manpower structure up to about the year 2000, we worked up the written opinions of some 100 experts" (~luczynski and Jozef owicz, 1977).

The second step in the manpower planning exercise consists of setting targets for those occupations for which this is considered appropriate. Independent estimates are made of the needs for the types of manpower whose level of employment is largely socially determined, such as teachers and doctors. (These forecasts are nearly but not entirely independent of economic forecasts. Although the 'keed" for doctors or teachers is not closely related to the level of national income, such specialists must be paid. It is unrealistic to allow estimates of "needsI1 or "requirementsff to depart too far from the likely economic lldemandll, that is the number that the government sector is likely to be willing and able to pay for.) However, the main basis for forecasts of the need's for doctors, teachers and similar personnel is demographic. Require- ments are calculated on the basis of formulae: so many teachers per ,

thousand of the population aged 5 to 15, so many doctors per thousand of the population aged 0 to 5 and so on. Other public sector forecasts may be more loosely (or arbitrarily) connected to population size - for example, the target number of social workers will probably be related to estimates of the numbers of people in need of the kind of help that social workers can give. Obviously the setting of targets for particular sectors must rely heavily on the informed discussion amongst experts and political leaders which we have already described.

The third step is to derive from the general economic forecasts some estimates of the numbers of people who will be required in each occupational category in order to provide the projected output. This step is discussed in detail in Chapter 5. The only general remark to be made here is that the concept of occupation is not always an easy one to deal with.

In theory all workers are engaged in an identifiable job or occupation. Certainly for job placement and counselling activities the concept of an occupation is invaluable. Moreover, most countries now have a detailed index of occupations which have been

brought together internationally as the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO). Once an occupation has been defined, it then becomes possible, at least in principle, to subject it to work analysis, in order to decide on the education and training which will be necessary for satisfactory job perform- ance. However, it is also possible to take the view that a rigid concept of occupation is unnecessary, and possibly even detrimental to educational planning. Most occupations, and certainly all of those at the higher levels, consist of a number of different tasks; these tasks can be combined in a variety of different ways, depend- ing on the skills and abilities of people seeking to enter the occupations. Thus the occupation "secretaryn - which is apparently well defined - can vary considerably depending on the ability and educational background of the people willing to undertake the job. Any attempt to define precisely the educational requirements for a secretary is likely to limit unnecessarily the range of people con- sidered able to enter this occupation. Moreover, it may well hinder increases in the efficiency of office organisation.

Another issue of considerable practical concern is the degree of detail necessary in specifying occupations. It is clearly unrealistic to attempt to predict the numbers'of employees which will be needed in very detailed occupational groups for very long periods into the future. On the other hand, the more that occupations are aggregated, the larger is the total number of individual tasks that are combined in a single category and the greater is likely to be the variety of educational backgrounds of people entering each occupational group.

Such considerations have led some observers to suggest that step 3 (tbe conversion of economic output targets to occupational requirements) should be eliminated altogether; the educational structure of the labour force would then be linked directly to economic activity. This seems an extreme way of dealing with a problem that is difficult but not insuperable.

At the end of steps 2 and 3 the planning team will have a vector of occupations showing the required, or acceptable, stock of men and women in each occupational category, having taken account both of economic growth perspectives and of demographic and social priorities.

Step 4 is the conversion of these occupational "needsu into requirements of various categories of educated manpower. This is done explicitly or implicitly by multiplying the vector of occupational %eedsU by a matrix of coefficients showing the proportion of workers in each level and type of education. If the concern is primarily with planning higher education this matrix will, of course, focus mainly on the occupations in which most highly qualified manpower is concentrated. Decisions about the future values of these occupation/education coefficients are again a combination of trend projection, econometric analysis and judge- ment by experts. The techniques used in various European countries are discussed in Chapter 5.

Step 5 consists of making an estimate of the number of people from the existing stock of educated people who are likely to die or withdraw from the labour force between the base year and the target year. In step 6, the survivors from the existing stock are com- pared with the required numbers derived from step 4 and the

differences between the corresponding elements of each vector give the required output of different qualifications from the higher education system over the planning period or periods. This out-

P ut is then adjusted in step 7, by making an allowance for the generally small) number of people who graduate and then do not enter the labour force.

Step 8 consists of phasing this required output of graduates year by year over the planning period. Probably the most important consideration here, stressed by all those countries which undertake systematic manpower planning, is to ensure that there are no unnecessary fluctuations in student numbers over the planning period. Indeed, one must also consider what is likely to happen at the end of the-planning period. A rapid build up of enrolments to overcome immediate manpower shortages as quickly as possible can lead to at least a temporary oversupply shortly thereafter. During the 1960s, many developing countries of the world found themselves in this situation, owing to their anxiety to emerge from colonialism as quickly as possible by training their own people for senior positions in government, commerce and industry. In many European countries too, attempts to overcome what seemed like a chronic shortage of teachers by expanding training facilities resulted in over-capacity by the mid-1970s. (Here, it must be admitted, the problem was exacerbated by the decline in births which occurred in most European countries from the mid-1960s.)

Step 9 consists of converting the required annual number of graduates into a required number of students. This and step 10, the estimation of the required new entrants to each branch of higher education, are discussed in detail in Chapter 6. There are various ways of making such estimates; the most systematic, if appropriate data are available, is by a matrix of transition coefficients which trace the flows of students through each year of study in each branch of higher education.1 Such models are now extensively used in UNESCO statistical activities and the model- building involved has been comprehensively described by Thorstad (forthcoming).

These ten steps constitute the essential elements of a manpower forecasting exercise, leading directly to estimates of the required number of total enrolments and of new entrants in each branch of higher educati0n.l However, in order to complete the operation

For those who like algebraic formulations the whole process has been summarised in Blaugh (1970) as follows:

The entire method is neatly summed up in the identity involving the multiplication of a scalar (1) by a row vector of fractions of GNP originating in different industries (2) by a column vector of labour-output coefficients (3) by an industry-occupation matrix (4) by an occupation matrix (5):

(footnote continued on p. 42)

there are a number of additional steps, embodying possible alterna- tive procedures and checks on the feasibility of the projections. These are now outlined briefly.

The first has been designated (A) in figure 4.1. This is an estimate of the number of teachers in higher education which will be required for the planned number of students. Making such an estimate is a straightforward arithmetical exercise, in that the required numbers of teachers is simply the product of the numbers of students and the required teacher/student ratio. There is, of course, some arbitrariness in the concept of a teacher/student ratio; but this presents no computational difficulty in principle. There is, however, one technical problem that can cause some difficulty, particularly if rapid expansion is anticipated: namely that teachers in higher education are themselves part of the stock of highly educated manpower. Thus the required number of teachers needs to be added to the required stock. This addition will raise the required annual output, which will increase the required number of students, which will again increase the required number of teachers. In practice, with a student/teacher ratio of 10:l a single alteration of the calculations is usually sufficient to make the necessary adjustment.

. . . - - . . . She subeidiary &ep -shown- as- (B)- ~ n - figure 4..1 consists of comparing the "required" number of new students with the anticipated social" demand from secondary school leavers and others. If man- power needs require more new students, in some areas or in general, than appear likely to be available, steps must clearly be taken to stimulate the social demand. Conversely, if social demand appears likely to exceed manpower needs, steps need to be taken through counselling or economic incentives to reorientate the social demand, or to see what measures are possible to increase the employment opportunities for graduates. Such manipulation of social demand is considered in Chapter 7.

It is possible to make the comparison between projections based on social demand and those resulting from manpower needs at any stage of the model. For example the whole operation can be under- taken so as to assess the probable implications for the size and

(footnote continued from p. 41)

x 2. &k L. (x) pj x; ; a matrix of required workers of education J J

(1) (2) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) (5 )

in occupation in industry, where

X = GNP

Xi = GNP originating in each industry (j=l,. . . ,n) J

5. = the labour J

Lk = the labour

Li = the labour n m

and j = 1 k =

force in each industry

force in each occupation

force with each level of t

(k=l, . . . ,m) education (i=l, . . . , t )

distribution of the stock of qualified manpower if student numbers are based entirely on social demand. Many Western European countries are confronted by this question, and by the resulting problem of how to absorb into satisfactory employment all the graduates who are likely to be produced during the next decade.

Another possibility, involving a limited manpower planning operation with a much shorter time horizon, is to examine only the employment prospects of the existing stock of students, whose numbers firmly determine the outflow of graduates for the next few years. If more graduates are likely to be seeking jobs in a particular area than there will be jobs available, this is obviously a sign that further expansion should be limited or even that numbers should if possible be reduced.

Regular monitoring of the likely short-run supply and demand can result in a higher education system that is regulated rather like a thermostatically controlled central heating system. Inherent lags in the system will make it liable to some fluctua- tions; but it may be thought that it is better to put up with fluctuations than to create rigidities which some see as the result of tying higher education closely to longer-range manpower forecasts.

An extreme form of such an approach involves no forecasting of manpower requirements at all, but concentrates on monitoring the first employment of university graduates. (This has been done regular1 for many years in Sweden, Holland, Norway and the United Kingdom.y If it becomes apparent that graduates of some subjects are finding increasing difficulty in obtaining suitable jobs, attempts can be made, if desired, to restrain social demand in these areas.

The final check that needs to be made is to compare the likely cost of the higher education programme with the resources that are expected to be available. This is shown as step (C) in figure 4.1. Clearly, it is only possible to provide a very rough check. More- over, decisions about the share of national resources to be devoted to higher education depend in large part on political priorities; if plans for economic development are believed to depend on the availability of highly qualified manpower, then higher education will receive considerable political priority.

In this chapter we have concentrated almost entirely on the purely quantitative aspects of manpower planning - that is, on ensuring that the number of students in the various areas of study is appropriate. It is equally important, however, though much less easy to incorporate in a formal model, that the content of higher education should take into account the needs of the economy. A widespread criticism of graduates in many countries is that the knowledge and skills that they have acquired are governed mare by considerations of academic respectability than by the needs of industry and commerce. Problems relating to the content of higher education are considered in Chapter 8.

Making f o r e c a s t s of qua l i f i ed manpower requirements

There a r e many ways i n which economic and educational planning can be integrated. We have al ready seen how the gener ic term ffmanpower fo recas t ingv is used to describe the most f requen t ly used planning procedure f o r r e l a t i n g economic development t o educational output. However, the techniques of manpower planning a r e no t a unique s e t of fo recas t ing procedures but r a t h e r a multi tude of methodologies. Among them can be found a whole range of a l t e rna- t i v e s t a t i s t i c a l procedures, a s wel l a s more i n t u i t i v e methods of ex t rapo la t ion and enquiry.

This chapter ou t l ines , one by one, the main methodologies used in making f o r e c a s t s of qua l i f i ed manpower requirements i n Europe. Although in p r a c t i c e each technique can be, and on occasions has been, used i n i s o l a t i o n , i t is more common f o r a number of d i f f e r - en t approaches t o be used simultaneously. n u s the main techniques t o be described should be viewed a s complementary t o one another

. . . . r a t h e r . than . a s alternatives. . . .. In a d d i t i q n , some. techniques a r e . -more. , ... . appropria te i n some circumstances than in others. For example, ex t rapo la t ion and regress ion techniques requ i re r e l i a b l e and exact data on manpower s t r u c t u r e going back over a long-time period. Where such s t a t i s t i c s a r e not ava i lab le , a l t e r n a t i v e techniques need t o be applied.. Other methodologies have d i f f e r e n t informational needs.

Enquiry from employers e el phi methodl

Possibly the simplest method employed i n manpower planning pro- cedures is t h e survey method or enquiry from employing organisat ions . As i ts name suggests, t h i s involves asking employers about t h e i r own in ten t ions with respect t o the employment of qua l i f i ed manpower. 'Po be use fu l f o r educational planning it is necessary t o know the p a r t i c u l a r types of labour they expect to take on and t h e q u a n t i t i e s and mixes of each type. Employers1 f o r e c a s t s a r e then aggregated and allowance is made f o r deaths and withdrawals from the labour fo rce t o give a fo recas t of the increase i n manpower demand f o r the re levan t t a r g e t period. The method of enquiry from employers appears t o be widely used, p a r t i c u l a r l y a s a complement t o other manpower planning techniques, and seems espec ia l ly common where t h e re la t ionsh ip between educational q u a l i f i c a t i o n and occupational t a sk is very c lose . Forecasts of employment opportuni t ies f o r s c i e n t i f i c and techn ica l manpower seem su i ted t o t h i s method.

Often, however, the survey approach goes beyond merely request- ing d e t a i l s of fu tu re manpower requirements from employers. It can involve the systematic questioning of exper ts such a s academics, researchers , planners, e t c . , on f u t u r e manpower s t r u c t u r e s a s they see it. I n t h i s way i n t e r n a l expectations of production and personnel can be integrated with those of external observers.

Such surveys may be undertaken by means of pos ta l question- n a i r e s , by interview, o r by a combination of these two. Goldstein and Swerdloff (1967) suggest t h a t "it i s des i rab le a l s o t o interview a sample of the p lan t s t h a t repor t by mail , t o f ind out what con- s i d e r a t i o n s l a y behind the employersf f o r e c a s t s , how c a r e f u l l y they were made, and whether the questions were understood by the res- pondentsff. Parnes (1962) has suggested t h a t an interview schedule f o r employers might include questions on:

the educat ional q u a l i f i c a t i o n s o f p resen t employees in the occupations under inves t iga t ion ;

formal h i r i n g requirements t h a t the establishment cur ren t ly imposes, o r would l i k e t o impose, f o r t h e occupations i n quest ion;

employer judgements about the general l e v e l of adequacy of e x i s t i n g s t a f f i n terms of job p repara t ion ;

employer opinions about the lloptimalll and llminimalll l e v e l s and types of p repara t ion required f o r e f f i c i e n t job performance;

employer opinions about the l i k e l y change i n job content over the next 15-year period and the impl icat ions thereof f o r desi red educat ional preparat ion.

This avvroach t o manuower f o r e c a s t i n g has some obvious po in t s i n i t s favoA&. ~ d m i n i s t E a t i v e d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e no t very g r e a t , and surveys of employers' in ten t ions a r e ab le t o r e l a y information t o policy-makers and planners q u i t e quickly. I n add i t ion , surveys of employers draw upon t h e i r de ta i l ed knowledge and awareness of the cur ren t s i t u a t i o n , e spec ia l ly with respec t t o technological develop- ments i n progress , market and company expansion plans and o the r types of s p e c i a l i s t knowledge which only those involved i n an industry a r e l i k e l y t o be aware of. It has a l s o been suggested, perhaps cyn- i c a l l y , t h a t another advantage of the enquiry method i s t h a t res- p o n s i b i l i t y f o r manpower fo recas t ing is shared among the employers responding t o the survey, l eav ing the organisat ion which co- ordinates the exerc i se and publ ishes i ts f ind ings i n the p o s i t i o n of merely repor t ing what it has been to ld (Goldstein and Swerdloff 1967).

This method of f o r e c a s t i n g a l s o has an i n t u i t i v e appeal f o r i t s s impl ic i ty . There a r e , however, many well-documented problems i n the design and sampling procedures of any survey, and such d i f f i - c u l t i e s a r e a l s o present i n the enquiry method of manpower fore- cas t ing . Problems t h a t might a r i s e i n c l u d e g e t t i n g a proper sample of employers and/or exper ts , guaranteeing a high response r a t e , and asking appropr ia te ly meaningful questions. Other drawbacks a r e more formidable. The enquiry method assumes t h a t employers do, i n f a c t , make long-term f o r e c a s t s of market shares , i n d u s t r i a l growth and manpower requirements a s a mat ter of course. I f such f o r e c a s t s a r e not normally made I f i t is very l i k e l y t h a t they (employers) w i l l f i l l out the quest ionnaires a t l e a s t c o s t , t h a t is, by guessingu (Blaug 1970). Goldstein and Swerdloff (1967) a l s o suspect t h a t t h i s is a l i k e l y outcome. Moreover, even i f respondents a r e f a i r l y accurate i n t h e i r own f o r e c a s t s of manpower requirements, they can- not provide s t a t i s t i c s f o r p o t e n t i a l new e n t e r p r i s e s not e x i s t i n g a t the time of the survey. A f u r t h e r d i f f i c u l t y is t h a t un less employers a r e s p e c i f i c a l l y asked f o r f u t u r e production l e v e l s , t h e i r assessment of manpower demands cannot be checked f o r consistency. Again, employers a r e l i k e l y t o make very d i f f e r e n t assumptions about f u t u r e market shares and s e c t o r growth: such d i f fe rences can lead to grave d i f f i c u l t i e s when responses from a l l employers i n a par- t i c u l a r manufacturing s e c t o r a r e combined. The p r i c e of labour c rea tes a f u r t h e r complication. Using the economic sense of the word demand, "unless employers a r e asked t o f o r e c a s t t h e i r require- ments a t var ious wages, the f o r e c a s t s cannot be in te rp re ted a s f o r e c a s t s of manpower demand" h ham ad and Blaug 1973).

The employer enquiry method assumes t h a t respondents a r e ab le accura te ly t o f o r e c a s t technological developments i n t h e i r own sphere of manufacture. A s has been suggested above one might expect employers who a r e int imately acquainted with t h e i r industry t o be i n a b e t t e r pos i t ion than others t o p red ic t such changes. But the re a r e a l s o innovations t h a t no-one is a b l e t o foresee. Such advances may even be espec ia l ly d i f f i c u l t t o a n t i c i p a t e f o r those who a r e c losely involved i n the d e t a i l s of i n d u s t r i a l pro- duction and thus , perhaps, "unable t o see the wood f o r the t rees f1 . Spec i f i ca l ly such employers may have a l imi ted view of t h e possi- b i l i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i n g d i f f e r e n t ca tegor ies of manpower.

One knowledgeable commentator has suggested t h a t even though such d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e well-known and well documented i n the l i t e r a - t u r e Ifthey continue t o be ignored by in t rep id manpower fo recas te r s f1 ( ~ l a u g 1970). Nevertheless, some of t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s can i n f a c t be avoided. Some problems a r e simply l e s s l i k e l y t o occur i n c e n t r a l l y planned than i n market economies. Examples a r e non- response b i a s ; the f a i l u r e of employers t o plan ahead systemati- c a l l y ; and t h e problem of market shares. These d i f fe rences a r e the r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i a l and decision-making s t ruc tures : i n c e n t r a l l y planned economies economic fo recas t ing may be p a r t and parce l of normal p lan t management, whereas i n market economies the en t repreneur ia l funct ion and the competit ive market s t r u c t u r e makes the f u t u r e l e s s p red ic tab le , even when employers can be persuaded t o make r e l a t i v e l y long-term plans.

F i n a l l y , however, even i f employersf assessments of f u t u r e man- power requirements a r e somewhat l e s s than i d e a l , the enquiry pro- cedure i t s e l f may well be e f f e c t i v e i n other ways. For ins tance, the survey i t s e l f may serve an educational purpose by causing employers and' p lan t managers t o consider se r ious ly t h e i r f u t u r e man- power requirements, t h e i r mix of c a p i t a l and labour inputs and possible technological change. In provoking such r e f l e c t i o n s , the enquiry method could well s t imula te not only planning a c t i v i t i e s but a l s o the t r a i n i n g (and r e t r a i n i n g ) of s k i l l e d labour.

Extrapolat ion of h i s t o r i c a l t rends

The idea of simply ex t rapo la t ing h i s t o r i c a l t rends i n employ- ment, has , l i k e the employer enquiry method, a c e r t a i n i n t u i t i v e appeal a s a method of f o r e c a s t i n g manpower requirements. Of course, some kind of h i s t o r i c a l perspect ive i s e s s e n t i a l t o any fo recas t ing procedure: the current s i t u a t i o n and poss ib le f u t u r e t rends can only be properly assessed i n the l i g h t of p a s t experiences. U1- t imately , however, the j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r p ro jec t ing p a s t t rends i n t o the f u t u r e must be t h e assumption t h a t the combination of influences which affected employment s t r u c t u r e s i n the p a s t w i l l continue t o do so, i n the same way, i n the future . But it i s scarcely l i k e l y t h a t the f u t u r e course of any s o c i a l or economic tendency w i l l be a simple p ro jec t ion of p a s t events. Economic h i s t o r y i s f u l l of examples of t rends changing; indeed, manpower problems a r e most severe where a rapid depar ture from p a s t experi- ences has taken place.

The h i s t o r i c a l approach, i n i t s most simple form, involves the quan t i f i ca t ion of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between manpower usage and output. I f a f a i r l y s t a b l e re la t ionsh ip seems t o e x i s t between the two, one may then p r o j e c t the t rends iden t i f i ed by t h i s exercise i n t o the fu tu re . However, pas t data on t rends i n employment pa t te rns a r e

based on the inf luence of both the demand f o r and the su 1 of labour. This i n t e r a c t i o n poses problems of interpret*The l l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n problem" i s - f u r t h e r compounded by t h e f a c t t h a t both output (whether aggregated na t iona l ly , by industry o r per c a p i t a ) , and more s i g n i f i c a n t l y , the means by which t h i s output is produced, a r e changing through time. Thus the re is a whole net- work of changing and i n t e r a c t i n g inf luences on both supply and demand s i d e s of the manpower equation which c r e a t e formidable pro- blems f o r the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of h i s t o r i c a l trends.

The f i r s t p r e r e q u i s i t e of t h i s type of ex t rapo la t ion method, based on h i s t o r i c a l precedent, is r e l i a b l e s t a t i s t i c s f o r a long time per iod , i n which changes i n output and/or employment s t r u c t u r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y steady o r a t l e a s t easy t o i n t e r p r e t . It i s a l s o evident t h a t when p ro jec t ing from pas t t rends care must be taken t o e l imina te pe r iod ic o r random f l u c t u a t i o n s t h a t a r e i d e n t i f i a b l e a s not being p a r t of the long-term trend. There a r e many problems of d e t a i l i n deciding exac t ly what t o ex t rapo la te and how t o extra- po la te it. Pro jec t ions of absolute numbers, p ro jec t ions of pro- por t ions and p ro jec t ions of r a t e s of change of numbers and of pro- por t ions a l l lead t o very d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . S imi la r ly , it is o f ten d i f f i c u l t t o decide whether a p a r t i c u l a r trend is l i n e a r , l o g l i n e a r , quadra t i c , sigmoid o r corresponds t o some o ther even more complex mathematical funct ion. Even i f the basic s t a t i s t i c s a r e very good it is i n p r a c t i c e almost impossible t o make a meaningful ex t rapo la t ion without some idea of underlying cause and e f f e c t r e l a t ionships .

One v a r i a n t of the ex t rapo la t ion method has been ca l l ed the ILOR o r Incremental Labour-Output Ratio method ( ~ l a u g 1970). I n t h i s no ta t ion , lllabourll r e f e r s t o a s p e c i f i c occupational group and floutput" t o na t iona l income o r i n d u s t r i a l group. In t h e 1960s, f o r example, f o r e c a s t s of the demand f o r manpower with engineering q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i n the Netherlands were made by using data from 1900 t o 1956 t o ex t rapo la te a l i n e a r r egress ion of the number of engineers on na t iona l income ( ~ e Wolff 1963). I n the same period the demand f o r engineers i n Sweden was f o r e c a s t using t rends i n output p e r engineer and the percentage of manpower em loyed a s engineers i n d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s of the economy (DB& 19637. Rel iable t ime-series data on pe r cap i t a output by economic s e c t o r , occupational c l a s s i f i c a - t i o n and educational q u a l i f i c a t i o n a r e necessary f o r t h i s method.

I n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison

The bas ic premise behind t h i s method of f o r e c a s t i n g manpower requirements is t h a t d i f f e r e n t countr ies fo l low the same "world man- power growth pa thsw, so t h a t a t the same output l e v e l they w i l l share a common occupational and educational s t r u c t u r e of the labour force . I f t h i s is i n f a c t the case, developing coun t r i es could l e a r n from the experiences of o the r economically more developed nations. This p a r t i c u l a r method of manpower fo recas t ing , based a s i t is on i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison, has been termed the analogy approach ( H o l l i s t e r 1964).

To be genera l ly v a l i d th is . - approach needs t o f u l f i l a s e t of very r e s t r i c t i v e condi t ions . A s OIDonoghue (1971) o u t l i n e s them:

F i r s t , the f u t u r e p a t t e r n of demand in the poorer country would need t o correspond t o t h a t a t p resen t e x i s t i n g i n the advanced area. Secondly, it would be necessary t o have know- ledge o f , and access t o , technological processes developing i n

the same way. Thirdly, it would be necessary f o r the input combinations t o be determined in t h e same way. Fourthly , i t would be necessary t o have a r a t e of c a p i t a l accumulation with respec t t o income t h a t was s i m i l a r f o r the two economies. F ina l ly , it would be necessary e i t h e r t o have no fo re ign t rade , o r t h a t both economies should have access t o the same markets f o r goods and se rv ices , and the same endowments of resources , so t h a t r e l a t i v e p r i c e s vary i n the same way i n each of the economies a s income increases.

Because of the s t r i c t nature of these conditions, t h e expecta- t i o n is t h a t d i r e c t comparisons between countr ies a r e unl ikely t o be va l id . I n f a c t ; a l l in te rna t iona l comparisons of t h i s kind have shown a weak re la t ionsh ip between occupational d i s t r i b u t i o n and out- put. While the use of data from a s i m i l a r economy a t an e a r l i e r po in t i n time has an appealing r i n g about i t , the d i f f i c u l t i e s be- come enormous when the method i s examined i n d e t a i l . Layard and Saigal (1966) calculated regress ion c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r a number of labour and educational ca tegor ies in d i f f e r e n t sec to rs of the economy i n 30 countries: no s i g n i f i c a n t p a t t e r n was i d e n t i f i e d between out- put and occupational d i s t r ibu t ion . I n 1970, an OECD study of 53 countr ies again found no unambiguous connection between the l e v e l of economic development and the educational s t r u c t u r e of the labour fo rce (OECD 1970). In an e a r l i e r exerc i se , H o l l i s t e r (1964) re- viewed t h e r e s u l t s of a number of inter-country s tud ies and came t o s i m i l a r conclusions. H o l l i s t e r a l s o undertook an appra i sa l of the OECD-sponsored Mediterranean Regional Pro jec t and examined the use- fu lness of the analogy approach i n four of the countr ies concerned i n the Pro jec t ( H o l l i s t e r 1966). H i s chosen group of countr ies (Greece, I t a l y , Portugal and spain) is f a i r l y homogeneous; i f the analogy approach is workable, one would expect them t o exh ib i t s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the re la t ionsh ip between output and the occupational and educational s t r u c t u r e of the labour force. A l l four count r ies l i e in the same geographical region, thereby being s i m i l a r l y placed f o r access t o export markets and f o r import needs. They a l l have s imi la r c l imates , thereby reducing inter-country d i f fe rences in r e l a t i o n t o production methods, a t l e a s t i n agr i - cul ture . While income l e v e l s a r e d i f f e r e n t , the v a r i a t i o n is not very great . For a l l of these reasons one might a n t i c i p a t e t h a t comparisons between these countr ies would be r e l a t i v e l y f r u i t f u l . However, it appears t h a t even these comparisons form very shaky foundations f o r fo recas t ing manpower requirements.

There seems, i n general , t o be l i t t l e support f o r the not ion t h a t an individual country 's manpower requirements can be u s e f u l l y arr ived a t by examining the occupational s t r u c t u r e of another country.

Comparison with best p r a c t i c e (model method)

This method of es t imat ing the f u t u r e demand f o r manpower with s p e c i f i c s k i l l s is by means of a cross-sect ion comparison between the more advanced and the l e s s advanced f i rms or p l a n t s i n an industry. This approach, l i k e the i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison one, can be thought of a s " s t r u c t u r a l v . It r e s t s on the premise t h a t wi thin a given industry, the input mix of d i f f e r e n t types of labour - and indeed labour ' s r e l a t i o n s h i p with c a p i t a l - i n the more advanced f i rms or p l a n t s can be used a s a guide t o the f u t u r e p a t t e r n i n l e s s advanced f i rms or p lan t s . This approach does not a id i n fo recas t ing the manpower s t r u c t u r e of the most advanced f i rms o r p l a n t s themselves, nor does i t make allowances f o r the entry of new f i rms i n t o t h e industry .

Underlying t h i s approach i s the idea of time l a g s between "best practice1! and !Inorma1 prac t i ce f1 i n economic en te rp r i ses . I'c is necessary, then, t o make some es t imate of the l eng th of time l a g s , t h a t is, the r a t e a t which more advanced individual p r a c t i c e s a r e adopted by a major i ty of en te rp r i ses . We need t o make assumptions about the l eng th of time an average e n t e r p r i s e w i l l take t o catch up before moving on t o making es t imates of the manpower required f o r such developments. One s tudy i n the United S t a t e s of America has shown t h a t the time l a g between most and l e a s t advanced companies i n the in t roduc t ion of innovatory production techniques was a proximately 20 years , average time l a g being 8.2 years (Mansf i e l d 19687. Such v a r i a t i o n s inev i t ab ly cause complications when at tempts a r e made t o produce manpower f o r e c a s t s using t h i s approach. There a r e , moreover, a d d i t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s .

While a t any one po in t i n time, the re w i l l be an uneven d i s t r i b u - t i o n of p r a c t i c e s wi thin indus t ry , each e n t e r p r i s e w i l l not remain i n d e f i n i t e l y i n the same p o s i t i o n i n the hierarchy of i n d u s t r i a l p rac t i ces . Firms and p l a n t s a r e l i k e l y t o change places i n the !'innovation league1! a s c a p i t a l expenditure decis ions a r e put i n t o p rac t i ce . Manpower developments such a s changes i n management personnel and educat ional and in-service t r a i n i n g programmes w i l l a l s o have t h e i r e f f e c t s on the rank order of ind iv idua l p rac t i ce . It is not c l e a r , then, t h a t the method concerned can s u b s t a n t i a l l y ease the inherent d i f f i c u l t i e s of manpower planning. Indeed, the approach may be more b e n e f i c i a l a s an i n t e r n a l exercise by the f i rm o r p l a n t concerned than a s a wider-ranging i n v e s t i g a t i o n , conducted n a t i o n a l l y and encompassing a whole i n d u s t r i a l sec to r .

Density r a t i o s method (normative method)

This approach t o manpower planning a l s o t r a v e l s under the t i t l e s of " r a t i o of sa tu ra t ionf1 and buanpower population r a t i o s " methods. It is based on the r a t i o between a s p e c i f i c occupational group and a task-or ienta ted parameter, o r between one type of man- power and another. The f i r s t of these involves the es t imat ion of the r a t i o between one type of manpower and, f o r example, a s p e c i f i c populat ion parameter. This parameter could be the t o t a l labour fo rce , the labour fo rce of a p a r t i c u l a r industry , the e n t i r e popu- l a t i o n o r a p a r t i c u l a r age group within it . The parameter chosen w i l l depend on the manpower group under considerat ion. For example, f o r e c a s t s of the demand f o r teachers w i l l be based on the r a t i o of pup i l s t o t eacher , us ing school-age populat ion a s the populat ion parameter.

I n the second type of dens i ty r a t i o method, where the r a t i o of one type of manpower t o another is considered, a f o r e c a s t of one type of manpower w i l l l ead d i r e c t l y t o a f o r e c a s t of the other . This method is most o f t en used i n r e l a t i o n t o occupational groups t h a t can be thought of a s being complementary t o one another i n working p rac t i ce . This method of es t imat ing f u t u r e needs is widely used i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies of Europe. However, even when it is assumed t h a t the demand f o r one type of manpower w i l l move hand i n hand with t h e demand f o r another , f o r e c a s t i n g e r s e does no t become any eas ie r . A t l e a s t , however, the method ma h e s 1 unnecessary t o c a l c u l a t e r e l a t i v e s a l a r i e s , o r es t imate the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of sub- s t i t u t i o n between the two groups of workers.

Parnes - MRP approach

This is the fixed c o e f f i c i e n t s method of manpower fo recas t ing t h a t in. t h e p a s t has appeared i n a v a r i e t y of shapes and forms. I n Western Europe the approach was pioneered by Herbert Parnes i n the Mediterranean Regional Pro jec t (MRP) ; ( see parries 1962). The Pro jec t i t s e l f ? sponsored by the OECD, aimed t o make recommendations on investment m education on the b a s i s of defined long-term ob- j ec t ives f o r economic and s o c i a l development, t o assess educational requirements t o meet these developments and t o promote educational growth p a r t i c u l a r l y in science and techn ica l education. The countr ies covered by the Mediterranean Regional Project were Greece, I t a l y , Por tugal , Spain, Turkey and Yugoslavia.

The MRP approach makes simultaneous f o r e c a s t s of manpower requirements f o r a l l occupational groups and then converts these in to educational requirements. The MFiP method moves s t e p by s tep from a t a r g e t nat ional income i n a spec i f i ed f u t u r e year , determined by economic planning procedures, t o a supply of qua l i f i ed manpower necessary t o meet t h i s t a rge t . I n the MRP, educational requirements were computed up t o the year 1975 t o meet defined economic develop- ments; thus the p ro jec t formulated de ta i l ed plans f o r some 1 5 years ahead. The comprehensive na ture of the MRP exercise can be shown by quoting theobjec t ives of t h e na t iona l research groups es tabl ished

out the project :

Estimate f o r t h e 15-year period 1960-75 the t t requiredt t number of graduates each year from the var ious l e v e l s of the educational system. For l e v e l s beyond the primary, these numbers must be broken down by broad sub jec t mat ter area - a t l e a s t i n t o graduates of s c i e n t i f i c and technical cur r icu la and those of a l l o ther cur r icu la , s ince the content a s wel l a s the c o s t s of these two broad d iv i s ions of the educational system d i f f e r considerably.

Estimate, i n t h e l i g h t of ( a ) , the number of teachers required i n t h e s e v e r a l l e v e l s of the educational system. A s i n the case of s tuden ts , teachers of pure and applied sciences a t l e v e l s beyond the primary must be d i f fe ren- t i a t e d from a l l o thers .

Estimate, i n the l i g h t of ( a ) the number of add i t iona l classrooms, l a b o r a t o r i e s , school bui ldings , and the amount of equipment required, and plan the optimum geographical d i s t r i b u t i o n of such educational f a c i l i t i e s i n the l i g h t of an t ic ipa ted population d i s t r i b u t i o n and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s .

Assess the q u a l i t a t i v e adequacy of e x i s t i n g educational programmes and make recommendations f o r needed improve- ments, including teaching methods and curriculum organisa- t ion .

Assess the need f o r new or expanded educational and t r a i n i n g programmes outs ide of the t r a d i t i o n a l educational s t r u c t u r e , such a s adu l t education programmes, apprentice- sh ip - t r a i n i n g programmes, on-the- job t r a i n i n g , e tc .

Estimate the t o t a l c a p i t a l and current cos t s of the expansion and improvement i n education implied by the r e s u l t s of (b)-(e) .

(g ) Es tab l i sh a "time-tablen f o r achieving the required expansion and improvements over t h e 15-year period and prepare annual budgets showing t o t a l required educational expenditure i n absolute f i e s and a s percentages of gross na t iona l product. E r n e s 1962).

It can be seen from t h e above t h a t the MRP exerc i se was a l l - embracing, covering a s it does educational output, c o s t s , qua l i t a - t i v e aspec t s of education and a l t e r n a t i v e s t o conventional educa- t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s . The s e t t i n g up of oukput t a r g e t s was not re- garded a s an i n t e g r a l p a r t of the MRP exercise , s ince the purpose of the p r o j e c t was to d e t a i l t h e manpower and educational implica- t i o n s of a given t a r g e t l e v e l of output. ''In general , no attempt has been made t o ' f o r e c a s t ' unconditionally t h e f u t u r e r a t e of growth. What has been done is t o e s t a b l i s h , o r t o adopt a l ready es tabl ished t a r g e t s f o r the growth of output pe r workertt (OECD 1965).

The elements involved i n f o r e c a s t i n manpower requirements were out l ined i n e igh t s t ages by Parnes (19625 although t h e number of s t e p s involved has been condensed by l a t e r commentators t o f i v e (OtDonoghue 1971) o r four (Blaug 1970). The e igh t s t ages concerned

be summarised a s follows:

Analysis of the s tock of manpower f o r the base year , c l a s s i f i e d by i n d u s t r i a l group and occupation, and using an occupational c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t h a t d i s t ingu ishes manpower with d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of educational qua l i f i ca t ion .

Forecast of the s i z e of the whole labour fo rce f o r the t a r g e t year and f o r the period between base year and t a r g e t year - f o r e c a s t s t o be made a t r egu la r i n t e r v a l s ( i n the MRP t h i s i n t e r v a l was f i v e years ) .

Estimate f o r each of the f o r e c a s t years the s i z e of the labour f o r c e required i n each s e c t o r and branch of the economy.

Dis t r ibu t ion of employment f o r the fo recas t years among the d i f f e r e n t categories of the occupational c l a s s i f i c a t i o n used.

Conversion of required numbers i n each occupational category i n t o data on required educational qua l i f i ca t ions . A f ixed r e l a t ionship between occupation and education is assumed.

Estimate f u t u r e supply of manpower with each type of educa- t i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n , taking in to account e x i s t i n g s tocks , r e t i rements , deaths, migration and output from the education system.

Calculat ion of changes i n output from educational i n s t i t u t i o n s necessary f o r t h e sup l y of manpower t o balance with require- ments specif ied i n (ey.

Calculat ion of enrolments necessary t o achieve required output from the education system. Variables such a s drop-out, length of courses, e tc . , w i l l be included here.

I n add i t ion t o these e igh t s t ages , which a r e based on Parnes (1962), the re a r e two f u r t h e r inclusions t h a t need t o be mentioned. Stage nine would be the es t imat ion of the numbers of teachers , technicians , equipment, bui ldings , e tc . , t h a t a r e necessary t o permit any change i n enrolments specif ied i n (h ) . F ina l ly , the current and c a p i t a l c o s t s of meeting the educational programme need t o ,be calcu- l a ted .

The ou t l ine above of t h e s tages of progression of t h e MRP exercise is necessa r i ly s impli f ied t o some extent . I n the MRP severa l methods were employed in fo recas t ing manpower requirements based on output targets : ( b ) , ( c ) and (d ) above can be derived from any of the methods discussed i n t h i s chapter, and i n f a c t a v a r i e t y of approaches were employed t o t h i s end.

It can be seen from t h e above t h a t the data requirements f o r the MRP approach a r e subs tan t ia l . h e n t h e s t a r t i n g po in t , t h e s tock of manpower i n the base year , r equ i res a de ta i l ed breakdown of the labour fo rce ; age- and sex-specif ic p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s ; s t a t i s t i c s on unemployment and underemployment; s e c t o r and branch d i s t r i b u t i o n of manpower; education - occupation p r o f i l e s of the labour f o r c e and d i s t r i b u t i o n by s e c t o r and branch; t rends i n out- put pe r c a p i t a ; r a t e s of re t i rement , death, migration, drop-out, and so on. I n f a c t the MRP approach has been c r i t i c i s e d previously on the grounds of i ts enormous need f o r sophis t icated data input. Ahmmad and Blaug (1973) comment:

Manpower data a r e required c ross -c lass i f i ed by occupation and industry and by education and occupation and preferably f o r a number of time periods. Normally such data a r e ava i l - a b l e only in census years a t decennial i n t e r v a l s and hence a r e o f ten qu i te out of date. I n add i t ion , the education, occupa- t i o n and industry c l a s s i f i c a t i o n systems used have changed so much from one census t o the other t h a t such data a r e not usual ly d i r e c t l y comparable over time. Data a r e a l s o required f o r output and t o t a l employment by industry f o r a number of time periods.

Ahamad and Blaug a l s o po in t out t h a t because of t h e data require- ments, t h e MRP method i s expensive t o apply.

I n add i t ion t o the need f o r extensive data the re a r e other d i f f i c u l t i e s associated with t h i s approach t o manpower planning. The assumption of a f ixed occupation/education r e l a t i o n s h i p may have the benef i t of s impl ic i ty , but it i s not necessa r i ly r e a l i s t i c . It comes close t o a s s e r t i n g t h a t the employment of manpower is not influenced by the supply, i .e. t h a t i f the supply of a p a r t i c u l a r type of manpower changes, t h i s w i l l not influence the amount of manpower employed. I n the s h o r t rm-his may be t r u e ; f i rms and p l a n t s may no t be ab le quickly t o s u b s t i t u t e one type of manpower f o r another. I n the long run, however, en te rpr i ses w i l l f i n d input f a c t o r s more p l i a b l e and w i l l be ab le t o ad jus t input mixes t o meet changing labour supply condi t ions (and consequently changing input p r ice condi t ions) . For example, en te rpr i ses may replace l e s s s k i l l e d manpower by higher s k i l l e d labour whose numbers a r e i n excess supply and, consequently, whose p r i c e i s l e s s than would otherwise have been t h e case. I n ea r ly work only l imi ted account was taken of manpower supply v a r i a t i o n s and the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of subs t i tu t ion . I n l a t e r app l ica t ions of these techniques, however, s e n s i t i v i t y ana lys i s has permitted g r e a t e r scope f o r taking i n t o account these e f f e c t s .

Manpower fo recas t ing techniques in p r a c t i c e

A s might be expected, the use of manpower planning i n a country is r e l a t e d t o the amount of c e n t r a l economic planning i n t h a t country. Thus, the o f f i c i a l s t a t u s attached t o , and the extent of use of the manpower planning techniques discussed i n t h i s chapter a r e very d i f f e r e n t i n c e n t r a l l y planned and market economies.

I n the German Democratic Republic, f o r example, manpower fore- cas t ing is regarded a s an integral. component of over-al l economic planning, where planning involves t a r g e t - s e t t i n g and the organising of the means t o achieve s e t t a r g e t s ( ~ a c h s e 1977). In the German Democratic Republic, many d i f fe ren t methods of fo recas t ing t h e demand f o r manpower a r e employed, mainly because it is recognised t h a t no s i n g l e p r a c t i c e i s appropria te i n a l l circumstances. The re la t ionsh ip between economic t a r g e t s and the corresponding demand f o r manpower i s estimated by sec to r and by branch of the economy. The d i f f e r e n t methods employed i n fo recas t ing f u t u r e manpower require- ments i n the German Democratic Republic a r e shown i n t a b l e 5.1.

I n the German Democratic Republic an important cons t i tuen t of a l l manpower planning exerc i ses is the "requirements questionnaire" ( ~ a c h s e 1977). Organisations responsible f o r managing the var ious p a r t s of economy a r e required t o no t i fy fo recas t ing a u t h o r i t i e s of t h e i r expected requirements f o r qual i f ied personnel through the medium of per iodic quest ionnaires . However, responses t o these quest ionnaires have not , i n t h e p a s t , been found t o be very r e l i a b l e with the exception of f o r e c a s t s of the demand f o r manpower t h a t a r e typ ica l of the economic a c t i v i t y concerned, e.g. teachers f o r schools, engineers f o r industry , e t c . (Sachse 1977).

Subs tan t ia l use i s a l s o made i n the German Democratic Republic of in te rna t iona l comparisons. It is recognised , however, t h a t the g r e a t e s t benef i t derived from t h i s type of u s t r u c t u r a l u exerc i se l i e s l e s s i n t h e ascer ta in ing of absolute manpower requirements but more i n the reve la t ion o f . s t ruc tura1 t rends i n t h e re la t ionsh ip between manpower mixes and output. Sachse (1977) acknowledges t h a t comparisons of t h i s na tu re a r e necessa r i ly complicated, s lnce d i f fe rences i n t h e socio-economic s i t u a t i o n and v a r i a t i o n s i n nat ional education systems and q u a l i f i c a t i o n s t r u c t u r e s must be taken i n t o account.

Recent work i n the German Democratic Republic on specifying an a n a l y t i c a l model involving mult iple regress ion i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t . Schaefar and Wahse (1977) have developed a model a t the Central I n s t i t u t e f o r Economic Sciences t o e s t a b l i s h the re la - t ionsh ip between the demand f o r qual i f ied manpower a s a dependent va r iab le and var ious i n f l u e n t i a l f a c t o r s a s independent (exogenous) var iab les . The model, which presupposes the a v a i l a b i l i t y of ade- quate da ta , i s based on a c t u a l data on s tocks of manpower from 33 u n i v e r s i t i e s and 20 col lege d i s c i p l i n e s i n 11 s e c t o r s of t h e economy from 1966 t o 1972. On the bas i s of data on t h e growth of manpower s tocks, approximately 70 i n f l u e n t i a l f a c t o r s were iden t i f i ed . These covered a whole range of economic, demographic and s o c i a l f a c t o r s .

This a n a l y t i c a l model has been elaborated by Sachse (1977) using the following f i v e stages:

( a ) Determination of t h e stock of un ivers i ty and col lege graduates by d i s c i p l i n e of graduates and s e c t o r of the economy.

( b ) Spec i f i ca t ion of assumed economic, demographic and s o c i a l ind ica to rs (exogenous v a r i a b l e s ) .

( c ) Examination of the re la t ionsh ip between s tock of qua l i f i ed manpower (broken down by subject d i s c i p l i n e and s e c t o r of the economy) and the spec i f i ed exogenous var iab les by means of s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s and politico-economic hypotheses. Rejection of assumed re la t ionsh ips not found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t inn these c r i t e r i a .

Table 5.1: Planning methods used i n the German Democratic Republic

Designation of method Content of method Prerequis i tes f o r

appl icat ion

Correlation and Ascertain re la t ionsh ips regression between demand f o r analysis graduates and independ-

ent var iab les such a s labour product ivi ty and technological progress; derive demand on bas i s of plans f o r such variables

Model

In te rna t iona l comparison

S ta f f ing schedule method

Manning method

Apply numbers and occu- pat ional s t ruc ture of graduates typ ica l of developed un i t s (branches of industry, undertakings, p a r t s of undertakings) with r e l i a b l e experience t o u n i t s expected t o reach s imi la r l eve l s of devel opment

Analyse graduate manpower stock and s t ruc ture i n comparable countr ies , pa r t i cu l a r l y i n the CMEA; take experience of devel- oped countries in to account; ad just plans to own l e v e l of development

Determine graduate man- power needs according t o spec i a l i s a t i on on bas i s of model s t a f f i n g schedules and c l a s s i f i ed l ists of comparable posi- t ions (e.g. d i f f e r en t managerial functions re- quiring s imi la r l eve l of qua l i f ica t ion)

Determine by analysis the number of graduate em- ployees needed t o provide a given service (e.g. number of doctors per 10,000 population o r per 100 hospi ta l beds)

Sc i en t i f i c selec- t i on of var iables and r e l a t i v e cer- t a i n ty regarding t h e i r f u tu r e move- ment

Due regard f o r comparability pa r t i cu l a r l y with respect t o l eve l s of technology and organisat ion

Due allowance f o r difference i n s t a t i s t i c a l method, and f o r nat ional p e c u l i a r i t i e s

Avai lab i l i ty of model s t a f f i n g schedules and c l a s s i f i ed l is ts of posts

Avai lab i l i ty of r e l i a b l e s t a t i s - t i c s

Table 5.1 (cont . )

Designation of method Content of method P r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r

a p p l i c a t i o n

S t a f f Analyse the determinants F a i r l y extensive normative of graduate employment prel iminary method i n a l l the most important e f f o r t s t o obta in

a reas by use of corre la- p i l o t va lues t h a t t i o n and regress ion can be appl ied a t a n a l y s i s ; determine the supra-en-tierprise optimum re levan t manning l e v e l f i g u r e s and use f o r planning a t supra- e n t e r p r i s e l e v e l

Extrapolat ion of t rends

Estimates

Calcula te f u t u r e t rends i n the graduate work- f o r c e under c e r t a i n assumptions

Source: Sachse (1977)

Determine changes i n graduate workforce on the b a s i s of expert assessments

A v a i l a b i l i t y of s t a t i s t i c a l data covering a f a i r l y long per iod, and r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e devklopment con- d i t i o n s ( r a r e l y found i n p r a c t i c e )

A v a i l a b i l i t y of qua1 i f ied planning exper t s with long experience

(d) S e t t i n g up a mul t ip le regress ion equation in to which the develop- ments of the exogenous v a r i a b l e s f o r e c a s t ou t s ide the model a r e inse r ted .

( e ) Calcula t ion of s tocks of qua l i f i ed manpower required a t var ious p o i n t s over the f o r e c a s t i n g period.

It is recognised t h a t t h i s model can provide only a f i r s t bas i s f o r the assessment of the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower, and t h a t i ts s p e c i f i c a t i o n s need t o be supplemented by f u r t h e r a c t i v i t i e s . Table 5.1 shows the f u l l range of techniques employed i n the German Democratic Republic together with a summary discuss ion of the techniques used and the p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r t h e i r app l ica t ion .

I n Poland, a s i n the German Democratic Republic, the in tegrated na tu re of manpower planning and over-a l l economic planning i s emphasised. Using data provided by success ive employment censuses and information supplied by re levan t m i n i s t r i e s , s p e c i a l i s t teams i n each min i s t ry analyse development t rends i n the employment of qua l i f i ed personnel while giving spec ia l considerat ion t o cur ren t manpower u t i l i s a t i o n . A v a r i e t y of methods a r e then employed i n an attempt t o f o r e c a s t the f u t u r e demand f o r manpower. This next s t age i s summarised by Kluczynski and Jozefowicz (1977):

On the bas i s of t h e cur ren t ly d i s t r i b u t e d l i s t of methods which can be used f o r determining qua l i f i ed personnel require- ments, together with a desc r ip t ion of t h e i r advantages, draw- backs and* the conditions of t h e i r app l ica t ion t o s p e c i f i c s e c t o r s and branches of t h e na t iona l economy, teams a t the m i n i s t r i e s suggest t h e methods which they intend t o use i n t h e i r fo recas t ing work. The proposals of the m i n i s t r i e s a r e discussed a t meetings in which the represen ta t ives of these m i n i s t r i e s , t h e management of the Planning Commission and s c i e n t i f i c workers p a r t i c i p a t e ; then, i f necessary t h e proposals a r e corrected and approved.

The m i n i s t e r i a l teams then prepare a f o r e c a s t of qua l i f i ed man- power requirements f o r t h e i r o m areas of economic a c t i v i t y . These f o r e c a s t s a r e then analysed and evaluated by the Planning Commission with the help of groups of consul tants , i n various s o c i a l - s c i e n t i f i c d i sc ip l ines . I n the f i n a l s t age of work on t h e f o r e c a s t , the number of new graduates required t o achieve the t a r g e t l e v e l of employment is calculated by d i s c i p l i n e and s e c t o r of the economy. I n calcula- t i n g the number of new graduates required f o r the t a r g e t year , the following a r e taken i n t o account:

( a ) increases in the number of jobs;

(b ) an t ic ipa ted l o s s of manpower through death o r re t i rement ;

( c ) replacement of underqualif ied manpower.

A s mentioned above, a v a r i e t y of methods a r e employed i n ca lcu la t ing the required number of new s p e c i a l i s t s . The p a r t i c u l a r technique(s) chosen i s r e l a t e d t o the s p e c i f i c conditions of a given branch of production o r se rv ices . Kluczynski and Jozefowicz (1977) give examples of typ ica l techniques used i n Pol ish manpower planning:

( a ) es t imat ion by exper ts - commonly used i n cases where it is not poss ib le t o use more ob jec t ive methods; it is a l s o used i n Poland f o r cross- checking ca lcu la t ions made using other techniques. This method is used, i n con@nction with o thers , i n most branches of the economy.

( b) ex t rapo la t ion

( c ) model method

(d) normative method - i n Poland t h i s involves e s t a b l i s h i n g manpower requirements on the bas i s of appropria te norms f o r the employment of qua1 i f ied workers i n r e l a t i o n t o the u n i t of reference. Examples of use i n Poland are:

- i n t ranspor t - norms f o r se rv ic ing equipment ;

- i n education - norms f o r pupil- teacher r a t i o s ;

- i n hea l th se rv ices ( h o s p i t a l s ) - norms f o r the number of doctors per 100 beds.

( e ) c o r r e l a t i o n and regress ion - est imates of the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower a r e based on p a s t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the development of qua1 i f ied manpower and f a c t o r s determining the demand f o r exper ts .

( f ) i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison - in Poland t h i s is t r e a t e d a s an a u x i l i a r y con t ro l method only.

It can be seen t h a t i n Poland, a s in t h e German Democratic Republic, a v a r i e t y of methods a r e employed i n fo recas t ing the demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower. Often more than one technique is applied t o the same problem; the p a r t i c u l a r method(s) chosen r e f l e c t s the data requirements of t h e technique, t h e s p e c i a l condi- t ions of the economic a c t i v i t y concerned and the s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l and economic framework within which the a c t i v i t y operates. O f t e n cross-checking takes place t o ensure t h e consistency of fo recas t s . The idea of making severa l f o r e c a s t s using d i f f e r e n t techniques which a r e then s e t alongside one another f o r comparative purposes, i n an attempt t o a r r i v e a t a s e t of f o r e c a s t s cons i s ten t with t a r g e t employment ind ica to rs , seems p a r t i c u l a r l y common i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies of East Europe.

I n Romania it i s considered more and more necessary t h a t educa- t i o n a l planning be f u l l y integrated with over-al l economic and s o c i a l planning. However, it i s recognised t h a t the need i n education f o r long-term plans presents c e r t a i n problems. Thus a d i s t i n c t i o n is made between t h e de ta i l ed five-year economic plans and the longer run perspect ives t h a t a r e used a s a b a s i s f o r planning the production of highly qua l i f i ed manpower. The need f o r long-term perspect ives makes accurate f o r e c a s t s using a s i n g l e technique impossible - r a t h e r a range of methods of es t imat ion a r e used. Some aim a t very accurate manpower balances f o r 2-3 years ahead. Others aim t o give much broader ind ica t ions of needs up t o 20 years ahead.

The pro jec t ion of long-term trends and broad in te rna t iona l comparisons a r e viewed with suspicion. Preference i s given t o techniques t h a t r e l a t e more s p e c i f i c a l l y t o the cur ren t economic and s o c i a l development perspect ives of Romania i t s e l f .

The s t a r t i n g point is a s e r i e s of norms f o r each en te rpr i se of d i f f e r e n t categories of manpower - sine-3 these norms have had l e g a l s t a t u s (see Pest isanu e t a 1 1977). The main categories a r e production workers, immediate supervisors , en te rpr i se managers, spec ia l i sed profess ional and technical workers, o ther spec ia l i sed workers and se rv ice workers. Each of these main groups is f u r t h e r subdivided ; f o r example, " the category of workers, apparently homo- gereous , i s i n f a c t very heterogenous. Elementary education, pre- viously adequate f o r a worker, is now i n s u f f i c i e n t and even un- acceptable even a s the v e r y concept of a worker has evolved con- s iderab ly i n recent years under the inf luence of t echn ica l progressu (Pest isanu e t a 1 1977).

Once the s t r u c t u r e of personnel of an en te rpr i se is es tabl ished various cor re la t ions a r e made i n order t o p r o j e c t these i n t o the fu tu re . Examples are:

- c o r r e l a t i o n between the number of workers (of var ious categories) and the number of o ther categories of personnel;

- c o r r e l a t i o n between "workersu and technicians;

- c o r r e l a t i o n between personnel concerned with the f i n a n c i a l a spec t of the e n t e r p r i s e and those concerned with production.

An example of the r e s u l t s of such ca lcu la t ions i n c e r t a i n s e c t o r s of a c t i v i t y is given i n t a b l e 5.2.

Table 5.2

For 100 workers Type of industry

engineers technicians foremen

Coal industry 1-57 1.51 2.63

O i l industry 3.22 2.75 4.17

Machine bui lding i n d u s t r i e s

Chemical i n d u s t r i e s 2.93 2.02 2.24

Source: Pest isanu, e t a1 1977.

Once these cor re la t ions a r e es tabl ished the planned over-al l employment of the en te rpr i se is determined by var ious p roduc t iv i ty norms.

I n determining f u t u r e needs the responsible minis t ry consul ts a v a r i e t y of s p e c i a l i s t s i n the var ious en te rpr i ses and these expert opinions a r e modified i n t h e l i g h t of #discrepancies revealed when the f i g u r e s f o r a l l en te rpr i ses a r e aggregated and i n t h e l i g h t of t h e expected impact of t echn ica l progress.

Hungarian experience i n re la t i n g manpower planning t o higher education has developed considerably s ince the establishment of i t s c e n t r a l l y planned economy. A s a s t a r t i n g po in t i n planning, a s is usual , a u t h o r i t i e s i n Hungary analyse o f f i c i a l labour s t a t i s t i c s t o give a breakdown of the t o t a l labour fo rce . I n assess ing the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower due a t t e n t i o n is paid t o the country 's s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l goals.

I n common with the experiences of the German Democratic Republic and Poland out l ined above, a range of manpower fo recas t ing techniques a r e brought t o bear i n Hungary on the problem of estima- t i n g f u t u r e manpower requirements. The techniques used include those of extrapolat ion, regress ion, in te rna t iona l comparison,

::%3 from experts , model p lan method and manpower norms (dens i ty . With the object ive of f a c i l i t a t i n g manpower planning and of es tab l i sh ing evaluat ion c r i t e r i a f o r f o r e c a s t s a number of func t iona l research p r o j e c t s have been undertaken i n Hungary. The range of sub jec t s covered i n these exercises have been summarised by Ivan (1977).

On t h e s e t of problems of p r o j e c t i n g the more important s o c i a l , economic, t echn ica l f a c t o r s and t h e main propor- t i o n s of the prospect ive manpower s t r u c t u r e t h a t e x e r t an impact on t h e evo lu t ion of t h e manpower s t r u c t u r e up t o about t h e yea r 2000, we worked up t h e w r i t t e n opinions of some 100 exper t s .

Exp lo ra t ion and summing up of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s of pros- p e c t i v e automation concepts connected with manpower.

A r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s of t h e process of t ransformat ion of the manpower s t r u c t u r e i n t h e p a s t 50 yea r s .

Comparative s tudy of i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r ends i n t h e t r ans - format ion of manpower s t r u c t u r e .

I n regard t o the number and composition of t h e workforce employed i n r e sea rch and development, an independent c a l c u l a t i o n and a n a l y s i s with a view t o o r i e n t i n g t h e expected number of h igh ly q u a l i f i e d s p e c i a l i s t s .

E labora t ion of a system of job requirements and changes i n t h e content of t h e more important jobs.

Impact of s c i e n t i f i c and technological progress on t h e requirements s e t f o r t e c h n i c a l s p e c i a l i s t s .

Oppor tuni t ies f o r young and a d u l t workers t o be promoted t o s o c i a l p o s i t i o n s a t t h e p l a c e of work.

Analys is of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between manpower demand and t h e open na tu re of soc ie ty . I n t h i s framework we com- pared our c a l c u l a t i o n s with the manpower s t r u c t u r e ex t ra - pola ted from t h e process of r e s t r a t i f i c a t i o n which has taken p lace i n t h e p a s t 30 years .

Because of t h e s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l framework wi th in which t h e h ighe r educat ion systems of c e n t r a l l y planned economies ope ra te , t h e c l o s e l i a i s o n between manpower p lanning, genera l economic planning and educat ional developments is only t o be expected. Such r i g i d r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e no t t o be found however i n market economies. Whilst manpower f o r e c a s t i n g a c t i v i t i e s a r e i n evidence i n coun t r i e s l i k e t h e Federa l Republic of Germany, t h e Netherlands and Sweden such s t u d i e s a r e o f t e n undertaken f o r t h e i r informat ion va lue r a t h e r than a s a n a i d t o p lanning t h e number of p l aces i n h ighe r education. T r a d i t i o n a l l y , i n most a r e a s of s tudy i n Western Europe, s o c i a l demand has been t h e b a s i s of most q u a n t i t a t i v e p lanning of h ighe r education. There a r e always except ions , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n medicine, teacher educat ion and some branches of sc i ence and technology, but i n t h e main the measurement of s o c i a l demand has been t h e primary a c t i v i t y of h ighe r educat ion planning. More r e c e n t l y , with the more widespread use ofnumerus c lausus by p u b l i c a u t h o r i t i e s , some a t tempt has been made on occasions t o r e s t r i c t s tuden t numbers i n c e r t a i n s u b j e c t a r e a s where l abour market cond i t ions have shown evidence of graduate employment d i f f i c u l t i e s . But more of t e n it is l e f t t o t h e market t o r e so lve d i f f i c u l t i e s of over- and under- supply of q u a l i f i e d manpower through the medium of s u b s t i t u t i o n , s a l a r y d i f f e r e n t i a l s and unemployment, coupled with counse l l ing and media p u b l i c i t y .

I n market economies, whi l s t it is recognised t h a t t h e develop- ment of qua l i f i ed manpower is an important object ive of higher education, g r e a t s t o r e is placed on other t asks such a s individual development, s o c i a l i s a t i o n and the f o s t e r i n g of academic i n t e r e s t s . Recent f i n a n c i a l c r i s e s i n t h e West and the rapid esca la t ion of the cos t s of higher education have led t o many commentators urging a change of emphasis i n planning procedures and s p e c i f i c a l l y t h a t manpower fo recas t ing should assume g r e a t e r importance i n planning higher education. However, given the weak l i n k i n market economies between sub jec t of study and subsequent employment of graduates, these claims have gone l a r g e l y unheeded. I n parliamentary d i s - cussion on numerus f i x u s i n the Netherlands it was agreed t h a t man- power f o r e c a s t s were too unre l i ab le a s a bas i s f o r po l icy when assess ing t h e f u t u r e labour market p o s i t i o n of graduates (Ri teen 1977). Discussions i n o ther countr ies of Western Europe have followed a s i m i l a r course.

I n t h e Netherlands higher vocat ional schools have the r i g h t t o re fuse s tudents i n excess of t h e i r spec i f i ed admission capacity. Although labour market condi t ions do not d i r e c t l y determine t h i s capaci ty it would appear t h a t the graduate employment s i t u a t i o n i s an important i n d i r e c t influence. Univers i t i e s i n the Netherlands can apply f o r s p e c i f i c a reas of study t o be governed by numerus f i x u s regu la t ions , and while again i n p r i n c i p l e labour market con- m n s do not influence t h e l i m i t a t i o n s on admissions, evidence suggests t h a t t h e labour market is of ten of importance i n t h i s . "The connection between d i s c i p l i n e s with numeri f i x i , the a c t u a l admission capaci ty and labour market p ro jec t ions need not come a s a surpr i se" (Ritzen 1977). I n s p i t e of these mechanisms t o r e l a t e employment prospects and graduate output more d i r e c t l y , occupational remuneration, s u b s t i t u t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s and unemployment remain the most important adjustment devices. Although the Central Planning Off i c e i n t h e Netherlands o r i g i n a l l y made important con t r ibu t ions t o educational and manpower fo recas t ing , few advances have been made i n recen t years . Manpower and educational planning a r e not a c e n t r a l f e a t u r e of Dutch planning, and i n f a c t l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been paid t o education within economic planning models i n the Netherlands. I n recent years , severa l f o r e c a s t s of s tudent flows have been published. The Ministry of Education has recen t ly pro- duced f o r e c a s t s of enrolment i n un ivers i ty education ( t h e WORSA) and i n higher vocational education ( t h e RHOBOS) up t o 1990. (The RHOBOS i s not y e t complete.) D e t a i l s of these f o r e c a s t s a r e given i n Chapter 6. Given the Dutch emphais on planning on the b a s i s of s o c i a l demand, g r e a t e r importance is n a t u r a l l y attached t o es t imates of f u t u r e s tudent flows than t o those t h a t attempt t o es t imate f u t u r e manpower requirements. Ritzen (1977) makes the po in t t h a t the c r u c i a l question i n t h i s l a t t e r type of exercise should be t o f i n d out t h e number of graduates who can be absorbed by the labour market a t s p e c i f i c pay ra tes . It is more usual , however, f o r es t imates of manpower requirements t o concern themselves only with t h e number of graduates demanded on t h e labour market, omitting the q u e s m of p r ice .

I n any event, there have been th ree types of study irr the Netherlands t o a s c e r t a i n t h e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower. These are:

( a ) Studies based on the development of the economy a s a whole, o r on p a r t i c u l a r sec to rs of it. I n these , a func t iona l re la t ion- sh ip between the demand f o r labour with d i f f e r e n t educational q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and na t iona l product (possibly disaggregated by s e c t o r ) is assumed. The work of den Hartog and Thoolen (1971) and the RBBAK study (1975) a r e of t h i s kind.

( b ) Subject ive es t imates of demand based on the views of special - ists i n the f i e l d o r surveys carr ied out among graduates. This.example of the ItDelphi technique" has been used t o assess the f u t u r e f o r psychologists by Krijnen (1976) and f o r p h y s i c i s t s by de Laat (1975).

( c ) Normative estimates of the demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower based on the re la t ionsh ip between one type of manpower and a a r t i - c u l a r population parameter. m e work of Poorter (19773 on the demand f o r medical doctors f a l l s i n t o t h i s category.

A v a r i e t y of fo recas t ing techniques were employed i n the RABAK study (1975). I n order t o assess the over-al l demand f o r univer- s i t y graduates , t h i s study f i r s t analysed the h i s t o r i c a l re la t ion- sh ip between income and t h e number of employed un ivers i ty graduates and then undertook ex t rapo la t ions of labour product ivi ty . Both exercises were undertaken f o r the t o t a l demand f o r un ivers i ty gra- duates and f o r demand by d i s c i p l i n e of study. K r i jnen (1976) consulted 38 experts when using the Delphi method t o es t imate the f u t u r e demand f o r psychologists. These exper ts had s u b s t a n t i a l experience of a v a r i e t y of s e c t o r s of the economy. During exten- s i v e interviews, t h e sub jec t of f u t u r e demand was d e a l t with both i n terms of a quan t i t a t ive f o r e c a s t and q u a l i t a t i v e aspec t s of employment. De Laat (1975) a l s o used t h i s d i v i s i o n when fore- cas t ing t h e demand f o r physicists i n 3 2 d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s of the economy on the b a s i s of interviews with 30 exper ts .

The Federal Republic of Germany shares the emphasis which the Netherlands places on t h e regulatory mechanisms of the labour market i n education planning. Here, p o l i t i c a l and economic in te r - vent ion takes place where market imperfections a r e apparent o r where normal market mechanisms cannot funct ion. It is usua l ly i n t h i s r e s t r i c t e d sense of decis ions about the working condi t ions of markets t h a t the terms ttplanningfl and t t fo recas t ingn a r e understood i n the Federal Republic of Germany. A s we have seen t h i s concept of planning and fo reoas t ing c o n t r a s t s sharply with t h e not ion of planning i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies of s o c i a l i s t Eastern Europe.

One of the problems which would f a c e any poss ib le manpower planning approach t o higher education i n the Federal Republic of Germany is the na ture of i ts policy-making and implementing i n s t i - tu t ions . The decentral ised nature of government and of educational r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s i n the Federal Republic of Germany would inev i tab ly cause d i f f i c u l t i e s . Under the cons t i tu t ion , education i n its e n t i r e t y is placed under s t a t e supervision. However, the exercise of s t a t e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f a l l s wi thin the jur isdica t i o n of the Lander. ttThis arrangement l ed - and s t i l l l eads - t o a number of co-ordination problemstt (Hiifner e t a 1 1977). Under t h i s f e d e r a l arrangement it is d i f f i c u l t t o see how na t iona l manpower fo recas t ing , with a commitment t o implementation, could funct ion. It is not su rpr i s ing , then, t o f ind t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p between higher edu- ca t ion and manpower planning is a loose one, with the Federal Republic of Germany having very l i t t l e recen t experience of the techniques of manpower planning.

The f i r s t de ta i l ed app l ica t ion of the manpower f o r e c a s t i n g approach i n the Federal Republic was published in 1967. This s tud was undertaken a t the request of the Science Council by Biese (19677. On publ ica t ion it met with l e s s than enthusiasm, a r e a c t i o n t h a t is i n t e r p r e t e d by Hilfner e t a 1 (1977) a s ind ica t ing a movement from

the accepted pre-1967 l i n k between education and economic growth t o the post-1967 pol icy of educational expansion f o r its own sake - Itif necessary, aga ins t t h e p r i n c i p l e s of economic r a t i o n a l i t y t t (Hiifner e t a 1 1977). Riese (1967) emphasised i n h i s work t h a t t h e approach he had adopted, and the model of the demand f o r graduate manpower he developed, was determined no t only by the methodological premises of the manpower approach, but a l s o by t h e l imi ted amount of s t a t i s t i c a l mater ia l ava i lab le a t the time. Riese assumed an over- a l l annual GNP growth r a t e of 4 p e r cent u n t i l 1981, disaggregat ing t h i s growth among 45 s e c t o r s of the economy. The labour f o r c e i n these s e c t o r s was subdivided i n t o 55 occupational groups and the un ivers i ty graduates of these occupational groups were assigned t o 67 f i e l d s of study. Riese assumed the continuance of t h e s t ruc- t u r a l changes t h a t had taken place i n these economic s e c t o r s s ince 1950 and proceeded t o analyse the r e l a t i o n s h i p between GNP growth and t h e demand f o r highly qua l i f i ed manpower. However, h i s find- ings , which pointed t o l i m i t i n g the expansion of academic higher education so a s t o improve the qua l i ty of the educational system i t s e l f , were not i n sympathy with t h e dominating theme of t h e l a t e 1960s - the a c t i v e s t imula t ion of the s o c i a l demand f o r education. This accounts f o r the muted recept ion of h i s work i n the Federal Republic of Germany.

I n Sweden the 1955 Univers i ty Commission f o r planning higher education i n t h e 1960s used a manpower planning approach f o r some of i t s work. The f u t u r e demand f o r such manpower ca tegor ies a s c i v i l engineers, physicians, d e n t i s t s , pharmacists, agronomists, f o r e s t e r s , ve te r inary surgeons, economists, lawyers, publ ic admini- s t r a t o r s , p r i e s t s and teachers were a l l estimated by the Commission. Calculat ions were a l s o made of the outflow from the school system, expected f u t u r e enrolment i n higher education and the number of new graduates.

Subsequently, however, developments exceeded these f o r e c a s t s both in t h e demand of the economy f o r new graduates and i n t h e demand f o r higher education by young people.

Thir teen years l a t e r , quan t i t a t ive aspec t s of educational planning were again d e a l t with - t h i s time by the 1968 ttU68" Educational Commission. A t t h e ou t se t t h i s Commission s t a t e d the c o l l e c t i v e b e l i e f t h a t although f o r e c a s t s of t h e f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower can never be the only c r i t e r i o n of planning higher education i n Sweden, such a considerat ion is one of the e s s e n t i a l elements t o be taken in to account. A bas ic premise of the Commission was t h a t the goal of educational planning was not t o match the outflow from the education system p e r f e c t l y with t h e demands of the economy. This i s regarded as being too r i g i d a view of educational planning. Such a view, however, did not preclude making f o r e c a s t s of the r e l a - t ionsh ip between s p e c i f i c educational programmes and the re levan t sec- t o r of the economy. It was f o r c i b l y argued by t h e U68 Commission t h a t i n t h e case of long, highly spec ia l i sed t r a i n i n g programmes with high cos t s , capaci ty should be c lose ly r e l a t e d t o manpower requirements.

The main concept of fo recas t ing t h a t under l ies current planning p r a c t i c e s i n Sweden i s s t ra ightforward: t o ca lcu la te , i n comparable terms, the estimated outflsw from the educational ~ y s t e m and t h e estimated manpower requirements of the economy. Indeed, tta.ll computations on fu tu re demand f o r higher education, on the flow through t h e educational system, and on the number of graduates , have more the character of c a l c u l a t i o n exercises than of fo recas t s t t Bergendal (1977).

The c a l c u l a t i o n of estimated manpower requirements i n the U68 repor t s t a r t e d from a f o r e c a s t of t h e numbers employed i n the main s e c t o r s of the economy. On the b a s i s of information on occupa- t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e i n the 1960 and 1965 population censuses and i n t h e labour f o r c e survey of 1970 t h e numbers employed i n var ious occupational groups were extrapolated t o 1980. Calculat ions were then made of the t o t a l need f o r new recrui tment in d i f f e r a n t occu- pat ions and the proport ion of new r e c r u i t s t o be drawn from the education system, over f ive-year periods. The percentage of man- power with var ious educational backgrounds in t o t a l new recruitment were estimated on t h e bas i s of data from the 1960 populat ion census, from follow-up surveys of new graduates and on t h e judgement of a group of experts. However, it was recognised t h a t ca lcu la t ions i n r e l a t i o n t o s tudent flows a r e sub jec t t o considerable uncer ta inty . This has a l s o been found t o be the case with f o r e c a s t s of the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower. Analysis of the Swedish s i t u a t i o n has shown t h a t general economic development is by f a r the most powerful source of uncer ta inty (Bergendal 1977). A s with o ther market economies, it is recognised i n Sweden t h a t manpower fore- c a s t s a r e jus t one of a s e r i e s of f a c t o r s t h a t have t o be taken i n t o account by p o l i t i c a l decis ion makers.

There a r e c l e a r l y numerous techniques t h a t can help t o calcu- l a t e the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower. The ex ten t and frequency with which they a r e used is very l a r g e l y determined by the soc io-po l i t i ca l framework within which planning takes place. Thus, i n countr ies where widespread s t a t e in te rven t ion i n economic planning a c t i v i t i e s i s common, the commitment t o i n t e g r a t i n g man- power planning and higher education is high. Where the regu la to ry mechanisms of the labour market, such a s s u b s t i t u t i o n , s a l a r y d i f f e r e n t i a l s and unemployment, a r e l e s s tempered by governmental a c t i v i t y , countr ies have a r e l a t i v e l y weak commitment t o manpower planning a s an organ of control . We have seen above the con t ras t between c e n t r a l l y planned and market economies i n t h e i r commitment t o manpower forecast ing. The experiences of c e n t r a l l y planned economies such a s the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania i n using manpower planning techniques a r e n a t u r a l l y much more extensive than those of market economies. Although countr ies such a s the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden have a l l r ecen t ly completed work on the f u t u r e demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower, t h e main planning c r i t e r i o n is s t i l l a commitment t o s o c i a l demand; thus these s tud ies a r e o f ten not of o f f i c i a l s t a t u s , and l i t t l e attempt is made to gear l a c e s i n higher education d i r e c t l y t o the demand f o r graduates. ?As we s h a l l see i n Chapter 7, the re a r e , however, ways of using market mechanisms such a s information t o influence s tudent flows.) The widespread use of a whole spec- trum of techniques i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, and t o a l e s s e r ex ten t i n Western Europe has shown t h a t no s i n g l e manpower planning technique is s u i t a b l e o r poss ib le f o r a l l circumstances. Often, then, more than one technique i s applied to t h e same economic s e c t o r o r occupational group t o ensure consistency or t o check on accuracy before any manpower p lan can be implemented.

Chapter 7 deals with the process of implementing manpower based on higher education plans; we consider f i r s t , i n Chapter 6 , the ways i n which f o r e c a s t s of manpower needs a r e converted i n t o educa- t i o n plans.

CHAPTER 6

Converting manpower f o r e c a s t s t o educa t lonal plans

This chapter is concerned mainly with t h a t p a r t of the planning exercise whichconverts a m a t r i x of manpower requirements i n t o an operat ional plan f o r higher education. It can be summarised a s a s e r i e s of d i s c r e t e s teps . I n p r a c t i c e not a l l these s t e p s a r e e s s e n t i a l f o r a l l countries.

The f i r s t s t e p is t o f o r e c a s t the numbers of survivors from the e x i s t i n g s tock of qua l i f i ed manpower. This involves the f o r e c a s t i n g of mor ta l i ty , re t i rement and mobil i ty r a t e s . Mortal i ty r a t e s a r e f a i r l y easy t o predict : most developed countr ies now have data on age- and sex-specif ic mor ta l i ty r a t e s t h a t can be used t o f o r e c a s t the l o s s through death of highly qua l i f i ed manpower. Retirement from the labour fo rce i n most countr ies is an admin is t ra t ive ly determined funct ion of age. Although there may be more o r l e s s f l e x i b i l i t y i n d i f f e r e n t countr ies i n individual cases , and although some allowance needs t o be made f o r e a r l y re t i rement because of ill- hea l th and s i m i l a r reasons, i n general the es t imat ion of re t i rement r a t e s does no t present much d i f f i c u l t y . However, labour f o r c e mobi l i ty , both geographical and occupational, presents a more d i f f i - c u l t s e t of problems. Where occupational movements occur i n the normal course of career development, i .e . i n promotion from one grade t o t h e next , the re is in p r i n c i p l e no se r ious problem, especi- a l l y i n planned economies. I n general , the known demographic q u a l i f i c a t i o n s t r u c t u r e of t h e labour f o r c e provides a reasonable bas i s on which t o work. However, occupational mobi l i ty which occurs a s a r e s u l t of economic growth o r s o c i a l change is a more d i f f i c u l t matter. The bas ic problem is t h a t such occupational movements a r e the r e s u l t of supply and demand in te rac t ions . Their p red ic t ion is beset with a l l the problems of fo recas t ing manpower requirements t h a t have been previously discussed. The f o r e c a s t e r i s of ten forced t o r e l y on p a s t experience and comparison with o ther i n d u s t r i e s o r other countr ies .

The next s t ep is t o add t o the survivors from the e x i s t i n g man- power s tock those s tudents who a r e a l ready i n t h e nigher education system and who w i l l t he re fore emerge during the ea r ly years of the planning period. Countries which have previously used manpower f o r e c a s h t o plan t h e i r higher education system w i l l a l ready have determined t h e i r s tudent numbers i n accordance with e a r l i e r plans. I n countr ies t h a t a re beginning t o develop manpower planning techniques, however, the re w i l l be a t r a n s i t i o n period during which account has t o be taken of previously, i f ex te rna l ly , determined s tudent numbers. Even i n countr ies which have been planning t h e i r qua l i f i ed manpower supply f o r a number of years , a l l f o r e c a s t s w i l l not always prove to be completely correct : the re is a constant r e v i s i o n of plans , so t h a t s tudent numbers which were geared t o previous bes t estimates of manpower needs may not be idea l i n the l i g h t of more recent project ions . Nevertheless, the f a c t t h a t s tuden ts a r e already or ien ta ted towards a p a r t i c u l a r type of ca ree r

The next s tep is t o compare the matrix of manpower requirements with the ant icipated s i z e and d i s t r i bu t i on of survivors from the ex is t ing manpower stock, plus those already in the educational pipe- l i ne . The differences between the two w i l l indicate what adjust- ments need t o be made t o the output from each of the main branches of the education system.

The next s teps can perhaps best be i l l u s t r a t e d by an example from Romania given by Pestisanu, e t a1 (1977).

As described above the qual i f ied manpower t h a t must be trainec? includes not only addi t ional manpower t o meet economic growth ta r - ge t s but a l so those who a r e necessary t o replace deaths and other withdrawals from the labour force.

The following formula is used:

where:

Npr - the number of manpower desired

N - amount of manpower avai lable a t the beginning of the year

N1 - amount of manpower a t the end of the year

p - annual percentage withdrawals from the labour force

I n order t o prepare the educational plan, one must estimate the l i k e l y ou*put r e su l t i ng from exis t ing enrolments and compare t h i s with estimated fu ture needs (N , above). !his i s the manpower balance f o r each special isat ioar(see tab le 6.1).

T a b l e 6 . 1

BALANCE OF ONE SPECIALISATION: CIVIL AND INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING

- ( L e v e l : h i g h e r - L e n g t h o f s t u d i e s : 5 y e a r s ) -

S p e c i a l i s t s needed a t t h e end o f t h e y e a r 2 goo

S p e c i a l i s t s f o r e s e e n a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e

1 600 1 624 1 667 1 709 1 759 1 797 1 8 5 4 2 900 3 1 0 0 3 300 3 500 y e a r I

a Annual d rop-out a ( 3 . 5 p e r c e n t ) 5 6 57 5 8 6 0 6 2 6 3 6 5 1 0 1 1 0 9 1 1 6 1 2 3 I

Remain ing s p e c i a l i s t s 1 544 1 567 1 609 1 649 1 687 1 734 1 789 2 799 2 9 9 1 3 1 8 4 3 377

G r a d u a t e s f o r e s e e n :

- c u r r e n t 8 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 - - - - - - t o be t r a i n e d - - - - - - 1111 3 0 1 309 316 323

S p e c i a l i s t s f o r e s e e n a t t h e end of t h e y e a r 1 624 1 667 1 709 1 759 1 797 1 8 5 4 2 900 3 1 0 0 3 300 3 500 3 700

D e f i c i t o r e x c e s s -176 -313 -451 -581 -723 -846 - - - - -

S o u r c e : P e s t i s a n u e t a l , T a b l e XXIV.

The a u t h o r s comment: "The balance shown i n Table 6 .1 h a s been e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h t h e aim of a r r i v i n g a t t h e l e v e l of en ro l - ments necessa ry t o meet f u l l y t h e e s t ima ted needs f o r t h i s c a t e - gory of s p e c i a l i s e d manpower from 1981 onwards. (Th i s i s t h e f i r s t y e a r i n which d e c i s i o n s t a k e n i n 1976 can a f f e c t new e n t r a n t s t o t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . ) Withdrawals from t h e l a b o u r f o r c e a r e considered t o amount t o 3.5 p e r cen t of e x i s t i n g s t o c k each yea r" . The t a b l e a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h e number of g radua tes who can be expected between 1976 and 1980 a s a r e s u l t of e x i s t i n g en ro l - ments; i n o r d e r t o a r r i v e a t t h e s e f i g u r e s f o r g r a d u a t i o n s , it i s necessa ry t o t a k e i n t o account s t u d e n t wastage which i s i l l u s - t r a t e d i n Table 6.2.

Table 6.2: Wastage r a t e s during s tud ies

Dura- Years of study Total t i o n 1 ength i n of years I I1 I11 I V V s tud ies

F u l l time education

Technical education (engineers) 5 6 5 3 1 1 5

Technical education (undergraduate engineers) 3 6 4 - - 10

Agricul tura l 5( 4) 5 4 2 1 1 2

Economics 4 5 3 2 - 10

Medicine

Pedagogy

Fine a r t s 4 5 2 1 - 8

Source: Pestisanu, e t a l , t ab le XXV.

For the sake of s impl i c i ty , a coe f f i c i en t K is estimated, to convert t h e number of required graduates i n t o a number of required new en t ran t s f i v e years e a r l i e r :

100 k = -

100-p

where p = t he percentage of s tudents f a i l i n g t o course

complete the

Table 6.3 shows how K is calculated f o r var ious wastage r a t e s .

I n the case of technical education f o r engineers, t a b l e 6.2 showed t h a t the t o t a l wastage is 15 per cent. By r e f e r r i n g t o t a b l e 6.3 we f ind the appropr ia te coe f f i c i en t K = 1.1788. Thus, the number of new enrolments i n the r e l evan t f a c u l t i e s which would

Table 6.3

Wastage r a t e s during s t u d i e s Transformation c o e f f i c i e n t 100

(- 100-p

1

Source: Pestisanu, e t a l , t a b l e XXVI.

be required during each year of the period 1976 t o 1981, t o meet the manpower needs estimated i n t a b l e 6.1 would be a s follows:

Table 6.4: Enrolments required t o meet estimated need f o r new man- power, 1981-85: c i v i l and industrial construct lon engineers

I n 1976-77 1 111 x 1.1788 = 1 310 s tuden ts I n 1977-78 301 x 1.1788 = 355 " I n 1978-79 309 x 1.1788 = 365 " I n 1979-80 316 x 1.1788 = 370 " I n 1980-81 323 x 1.1788 = 380 "

Source: Pestisanu, e t a l , p. 55.

Fmm these ca lcu la t ions , i t is apparent t h a t , i f one wished t o s a t i s f y estimated manpower needs in t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s p e c i a l i s a t i o n f u l l y by 1981, it would be necessary in 1976 t o enrol 1,310 s tuden ts - which is about 9.3 times the number enrol led in 1975. Subsequen- t l y it would be necessary t o admit about 350-380. Such a massive increase i n enrolments f o r one year only is n e i t h e r p r a c t i c a l nor economic; indeed, it is c l e a r l y u n r e a l i s t i c . Clear ly the bas ic hypothesis underlying t a b l e 6.1 is not r e a l i s a b l e ; f o r i t ignores the p r i n c i p l e of educational planning t h a t enrolments should expand a t an even r a t e avoiding sharp r i s e s and f a l l s . The next problem, therefore , is t o examine what r a t e of increase of enrolments is the most p rac t i cab le .

It appears t h a t , with the exception of 1981, an output of 320 graduates p e r year would be s u f f i c i e n t t o meet the annual needs of the economy. This corresponds t o 375 new enrolments each year. The enormous increase f o r 1981 which was proposed i n t a b l e 6.1 resu l ted from the attempt t o meet the whole of the accumulated d e f i c i t of qua l i f i ed manpower i n a s i n g l e year. However, the new assumption of an annual f i r s t enrolment of 375 s tudents pe r year would r e s u l t i n a gradual diminution of t h e d e f i c i t i n t h e years up t o 1985, a s is indicated i n t a b l e 6.5. Nevertheless, the d e f i c i t i n 1985 would s t i l l be considerable, amounting t o more than two years ' production of new graduates.

Table 6.5: Mod i f ied balance

S p e c i a l i s t s needed a t the end of year

S p e c i a l i s t s foreseen a t t h e beginning of year

Annual wastage (3.5 per cen t )

Remaining s p e c i a l i s t s

Graduates foreseen

S p e c i a l i s t s foreseen a t the end of year

D e f i c i t o r excess

Source: Pest isanu, e t a l , t ab le X X V I I .

Moreover, if one i s t o assess the proposed t a r g e t output of 320 per year , it is des i rab le to make a f u r t h e r rough pro jec t ion u n t i l 1990. An example of such an extended balance i s given i n t a b l e 6.6.

Table 6.6: Balance of year 1990

S p e c i a l i s t s needed a t end of year

S p e c i a l i s t s fore- seen a t the beginning of year

Annual wastage (3.5 p e r cen t )

Remaining special - ists

Graduates foreseen

S p e c i a l i s t s foreseen a t the end of year

D e f i c i t o r excess

Source: Pest isanu, e t a l , t a b l e X X V I I .

According t o t h i s p ro jec t ion , the accumulated d e f i c i t would begin t o increase again i n 1988. I n other words, the new assumption f o r enrolments is s t i l l not s a t i s f a c t o r y , and it i s necessary t o increase enrolments s t i l l fu r ther . It can be shown t h a t an annual enrolment of 470 new s tuden ts , giving an output of 400 engineers per year , would gradually reduce the d e f i c i t u n t i l it disappeared i n 1990. Table 6.7 ind ica tes the f i n a l ca lcu la t ion which would show the t o t a l s tudent population required each year t o meet manpower needs i n t h i s sec to r f u l l y by 1990.

Even though much of t h e work on manpower balances i s i n one sense mechanical, a s t h i s example has shown, it i s c l e a r t h a t a considerable degree of judgement is necessary t o assess which path of development i s l i k e l y t o be economically and s o c i a l l y p rac t i cab le . The main purpose of the balances is t o give a rigorous a n a l y t i c a l framework within which such judgements can be exercised. For example, the re a r e other reasons why the implicat ions of a proposed path of educational development may be u n r e a l i s t i c . One p o s s i b i l i t y is t h a t the age groups whose enrolment i n higher education is being planned may not be l a r g e enough t o supply the t o t a l needs of the labour force. The resource implicat ions could a l s o be a de te r ren t t o p u t t i n g the plan i n t o operation. I n e i t h e r of these cases the required growth i n enrolments and graduations may have t o be ad- justed, and spec ia l p r i o r i t i e s f o r educational growth may have to be designated. It must be remembered too t h a t in-service t r a i n i n g and education by correspondence o f f e r a l t e r n a t i v e s t o fu l l - t ime study a s a means of achieving qua l i f i ed manpower t a r g e t s .

Table 6.7: F ina l ca lcu la t ion of t r a i n i n g f o r " c i v i l and i n d u s t r i a l construct ion engineering1'

~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ i ~ Years Total No. Number of year o f graduates

I I1 I11 I V V s tudents foreseen

Source: Pestisanu, e t a l , t a b l e XXIX.

1va'n (1977), commenting on the r e l a t i o n s between manpower planning and higher education i n Hungary, po in t s out two cons t ra in t s t h a t may i n h i b i t pu t t ing educational plans i n t o operation. F i r s t , i t may be the case t h a t i n the shor t term a general l ack of capa- c i t y o r a shortage of the necessary investment funds w i l l prevent the development of the education system i n response t o manpower requirements. However, i n the longer term the necessary adjust- ments can be made. Iva'nts second po in t is perhaps more s i g n i f i - cant. I n a l l f o r e c a s t s of t h i s kind, some margin of e r r o r needs t o be taken i n t o account. Hence, i f the discrepancy between man- power requirements and educational output is not l a r g e , i t is sens ib le t o leave the educational system a s it i s . I n other words, allowance i s made f o r the f a c t t h a t , i n the Hungarian s i t u a t i o n a t l e a s t , the system is f l e x i b l e enough to permit some var ia t ions . However, a s ide from these qua l i f i ca t ions it i s a general p r i n c i p l e i n Hungary t h a t i f the demand f o r highly qua l i f i ed manpower d i f f e r s from the educational output expected, the education system w i l l be manipulated t o make good the dif ference (Iva'n, 1977).

I n Hungary, once manpower t a r g e t s have been formulated, arrangements a r e made t o t r a n s l a t e them i n t o an educational plan. A s i n Romania, balance shee t s a r e drawn up of the demand f o r and supply of highly qua l i f i ed manpower. Iva'n ou t l ines the calcula- t ions a s follows:

where Ed = educational demand i n a given period

D = demand

Bwf = base workforce

Dch = n a t u r a l decrease (cover ing r e t i r e m e n t and m o b i l i t y )

Mb = m o b i l i t y ba lance

I n t h e German Democratic Republic , a g a i n w i t h i n a framework of ba lanc ing manpower requ i rements and f lows from t h e e d u c a t i o n system, a check is made, once t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e complete, t o s e e t o what e x t e n t t h e demands f o r g r a d u a t e manpower can be met from e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . Allowance i s made f o r employees g a i n i n g q u a l i f i c a - t i o n s through correspondence c o u r s e s , f o r occupa t iona l m o b i l i t y , f o r t h e secondment of workers t o f u l l - t i m e s t u d y and, of course , f o r n a t u r a l l o s s e s from t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . Table 6.8 shows t h e frame- work of t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s t h a t a r e undertaken i n t h e GDR. P lanning a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e GDR a r e v e r y much concerned with t h e s e t t i n g and meet ing of s p e c i f i e d t a r g e t s :

... i n accordance wi th our s o c i a l i s t views and our exper ience , p l a n n i n g forms a s i n g l e u n i t compris ing t a r g e t - s e t t i n g and t h e means of a t t a i n i n g those t a r g e t s . Th is i s of v e r y s p e c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r manpower p lanning and t h e development of g r a d u a t e manpower, s i n c e we a r e d e a l i n g with human be ings who have a r i g h t t o work and o c c u p a t i o n a l advancement (Sachse 1977).

I n Sweden t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s of manpower needs i n t h e U68 r e p o r t s t a r t e d from a f o r e c a s t of t h e numbers employed i n t h e major economic s e c t o r s up t o 1980. The e x t r a p o l a t i o n of l a b o u r f o r c e in format ion from censuses and surveys provided t h e b a s i s f o r t h e s e f i g u r e s . C a l c u l a t i o n s were t h e n made of t h e t o t a l need f o r new r e c r u i t m e n t i n d i f f e r e n t occupat ions over f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s t o 1980, and of t h a t p a r t of t h e new r e c r u i t m e n t t h a t was expected t o be met from t h e e d u c a t i o n a l system. F i g u r e 6.1 shows t h e p r i n c i p l e s of t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s .

F i g u r e 6 . 1

PRINCIPLES FOR THE CALCULATION OF THE NEED FOR N E W RECRUITMEYT I N AN OCCUPATION BE3'1YEIN 1 9 7 0 AND 1 9 7 5 (S'NEDEN)

Table 6.8: Planning sec t ion on q u a l i f i c a t i o n s t r u c t u r e and demand f o r t r a i n i n g (GDR)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Qua1 if i c a t ion s t r u c t u r e

Manual and non- manual workers of whom:

Losses Components of column 5

Stock Stock Total Owing Additions Graduates Graduates Total Possible a s a t required t o t o t a l from d i r e c t from cor- add i t ion stock a s 31 Dec. a s a t n a t u r a l 1976-80 s t u d i e s o r respondence a t

31 Dec. 1975 1980

o r apprent ices evening 31 Dec. s o c i a l completing courses o r 1980 causes t h e i r app- a d u l t

rent iceship education

women u n i v e r s i t y

personnel col lege

personnel Senior craftsmen Ski l l ed workers

of whom:

women workers with only p a r t i a l o r no t r a i n i n g

Source: Sachse (1977), f i g u r e 4.

It can be seen t h a t account i s taken i n these es t imates of the stock of labour , occupational mobi l i ty , l o s s e s from the labour fo rce and add i t ions t o it. Among those enter ing the labour f o r c e a r e the output from the educational system, immigrants and "other1'. The question of migration is s i g n i f i c a n t . One method by which an individual country might s a t i s f y some of i ts needs f o r qua l i f i ed ( o r unqual i f ied) manpower i s of course t o import it from o ther countries. Much w i l l depend on the s p e c i f i c s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l and economic circumstances of t h e country concerned, but , i n theory a t l e a s t , the importation of s k i l l s from abroad i s one way t o s a t i s f y a f o r e c a s t of excess demand. The inc lus ion by Sweden of immigration a s an input should be taken a s an acknowledgement of what is l i k e l y t o happen, r a t h e r than a s a pol icy decis ion t o encourage the impor- t a t i o n of s k i l l e d labour. Amongst o thers , Third World countr ies have o f ten used the manpower resources of t h e developed world a s a p o s i t i v e measure to a i d t h e i r own economic development. Such a use of migration (of t en on a temporary b a s i s ) can remove the problems of time-lags i n the production of s k i l l e d labour; the resource implica- t ions a r e not severe; and qua l i f i ed manpower from overseas can of ten be used i n t r a i n i n g indigenous labour. Thus, i f immigration is ava i lab le a s a pol icy option, account should be taken of it i n formulating manpower plans. I n t h i s way, countr ies can ease pressure on educational capaci ty , reduce time-lags and l e s s e n the burden of the cos t s of rapid educational expansion.

The example of converting a manpower f o r e c a s t t o an educational plan which i s given i n t h i s chapter used a time-span of 1 5 years ; t h i s length of time is by no means immutable. The MRP exercise , a s we saw i n Chapter 5, attempted 15-year fo recas t s . Parnes (1962), i n common with other commentators, recommended t h a t f o r e c a s t s of manpower requirements should cover a t l e a s t 10 years , and pre fe rab ly 1 5 or 20 i f they a r e t o be use fu l in educational planning. Longer f o r e c a s t s involve p red ic t ing t h e b i r t h r a t e , adding a f u r t h e r compli- ca t ion t o the manpower p lanner ' s computations. "It should be noted t h a t ... a 15-year f o r e c a s t is based upon numbers of persons a l ready born and is not subject t o e r r o r s caused by changes i n the b i r t h r a t e H (Parnes 1962). Parnes and o thers acknowledge t h a t i n fo recas t ing so f a r in to the f u t u r e the re can be l i t t l e expectat ion of accuracy and l i t t l e d e t a i l in f o r e c a s t s , but of course " there is a l s o a minimum time i n t e r v a l wi thin which the re is l i t t l e po in t i n making fo recas t s . This is the period f o r which the stock of qua l i f i ed manpower is al ready broadly determed" (Moser and Layard 1968). Again, I f i t seems reasonable t o assume t h a t manpower fore- c a s t s should be long term i f they a r e t o be use fu l f o r planning f o m a l educationff (Ahamad and Blaug 1973). Educational planners who have t h e i r doubts about t h e e f fec t iveness and r e l i a b i l i t y of manpower fo recas t ing po in t out t h a t t h e r e i n l i e s the bas ic dilemma i n manpower planning. To be useful plans must be long term, but over 15- o r 20-year per iods the problems of p red ic t ing technological change o r e r r o r s i n the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of model va r iab les become much more severe. Ahamad and Blaug (1973) sum up t h i s dilemma:

We have the paradoxical s i t u a t i o n t h a t manpower fo recas t ing should be long term t o be r e a l l y useful f o r educational decis ions bu t , unfor tunately , h ighly accurate fo recas t ing i s only possible i n the shor t term or medium term.

We s h a l l see below t h a t the experiences and p r a c t i c e s of indivi- dual countr ies well-versed i n t h e use of manpower f o r e c a s t s make them mindful of these problems; some allowances can be made by adapting plans t o meet changing circumstances and by conducting short-term

reviews. Thus, r egu la r feedback, aided by bu i l t - in f l e x i b i l i t y , can t o some extent a l l e v i a t e the d i f f i c u l t i e s of the time-scale of plannings I n s p i t e of such manipulations and rev i s ions , some commentators still f e e l t h a t bas ic r i g i d i t i e s i n planning methods, when looking so f a r i n t o the f u t u r e , c r e a t e insuperable d i f f i c u l t i e s . Ahamad and Blaug (1973) i n a review of d i f f e r e n t count r ies t experi- ences with manpower fo recas t ing found t h a t t t forecast ing e r r o r s tend t o be g r e a t e r t h e longer the time horizon of the fo recas t t f . They quote Leser (1969):

It would be a bold economist who would claim t o fo resee economic conditions and t h e tempo of economic change more than a decade ahead i n view of rapid technical and i n s t i t u t i o n a l changes.

Ahamad and Blaug regard manpower f o r e c a s t e r s a s such ttbold economistsw, i n t h a t ttmindful of the long g e s t a t i o n l a g s i n providing add i t iona l educational f a c i l i t i e s , they have not hes i t a ted t o fore- c a s t 10 and even 20 years aheadw (Ahamad and Blaug 1973). They concede, however, t h a t long-term f o r e c a s t s might provide use fu l information t o a id the decis ion making of individuals , and t h a t i n the absence of such an explorat ion of the f u t u r e , s tuden ts who choose courses on t h e b a s i s of the current labour market pos i t ions of graduates could f i n d the s i t u a t i o n s u b s t a n t i a l l y a l t e r e d by the time they join the labour force. This observation is obviously most p e r t i n e n t f o r market economies.

The need f o r plans t o be f l e x i b l e and responsive t o changing circumstances is one t h a t is recognised both by manpower fore- c a s t e r s and by those more s c e p t i c a l of t h e i r methods, such a s Ahamad and Blaug, who advise:

We f e e l t h a t manpower fo recas t ing should become much more of an ongoing a c t i v i t y and t h a t short-term f o r e c a s t s should be made f a i r l y regu la r ly a t short-term i n t e r v a l s . This would a f fo rd g rea te r f l e x i b i l i t y and would a l s o give more scope f o r improvement 'of the models used. I n time we may even l e a r n t o p r e d i c t accurate ly f u r t h e r i n t o the fu tu re .

I n common with a l l member countr ies of the CMEA the German Democratic Republic operates planning procedures over th ree in te r - woven time periods. The idea behind the CMEA arrangement is the synchronisation of planning a c t i v i t i e s t o f a c i l i t a t e joint planning and the co-ordination of forecast ing. The th ree time spans involved are:

- the long-term plan (15 y e a r s ) ;

- the f ive-year plan;

- the na t iona l economic plan (annual).

!he durat ion of the planning period i s determined by the time span of the a c t i v i t y concerned, so t h a t e i t h e r the preceding educational s t ages o r higher education can be adapted t o meet changing circumstances. Sachse (1977) ou t l ines the main d i f f e r - ences i n the th ree types of planning, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n r e l a t i o n t o the accuracy and f l e x i b i l i t y of each:

Long-term planning of the development of u n i v e r s i t y and college-trained personnel is of a conceptual charac te r and forms t h e precondi t ion f o r bas ic changes i n higher education. Planning is subject t o a process of cont inual improvement and is, within c e r t a i n limits, still f l e x i b l e . The f ive-year p lan contains a more p r e c i s e d e f m i t i o n of requirements and of the educational measures; t h i s is then converted in the annual plan i n t o the organised placement of t ra ined graduates and f i x i n g of the annual l e v e l of admissions.

The five-year plan and t h e annual plan i n the GDR have l e g a l fo rce i n respec t t o t h e i r implementation. The assessment of the demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower takes place i n the framework of the five-year economic plan. Summary information on planning computa- t i o n s f o r t h i s period was given in t a b l e 6.8.

I n the f i r s t planning document prepared f o r Poland, var ious ind ica to rs were included t h a t re fe r red t o the system of higher education. This was the f i r s t t3ree-year Economic Reconstruction Plan, prepared i n 1946 f o r t h e period 1947-49. Since t h a t time the planning a u t h o r i t i e s in Poland have prepared f i v e medium-term development plans and t h r e e vers ions of the long-range p lan f o r per iods covering 15-20 years. Plans in Poland now cover the years up t o 2000, the l a t e s t being the "Poland 2000" r e p o r t pre- pared by the Research and Forecasting Committee of the Pol ish Academy of Sciences.

A r e a l base f o r f tant ic ipatory" planning of education with regard t o t h e f u t u r e needs of the economy f o r qua l i f i ed personnel was provided by the f i r s t long-range p lan t h a t covered the period 1961-75, prepared a t t h e end of the 1950s. The employment and education planning system i n i t i a t e d i n the l a t e 1960s allowed f o r a feedback e f f e c t between economic s e c t o r s and education, "fhus acquir ing t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of e f f e c t i v e planningw (Kluczynski and Jozefowicz 1977). !hree vers ions of the long-term demand f o r h ighly qua l i f i ed personnel were prepared f o r 1960-80, 1965-85 and 1975-90 by the Inter-Ministry Committee using t h i s kind of feedback. The increased demand f o r univers i ty- t ra ined personnel suggested i n consecutive f o r e c a s t s was s i m i l a r t o the trend towards " r a i s i n g the c e i l i n g of the des i rab le l e v e l of employment of univers i ty- t ra ined personneltt (Klucz~nsk i and Jozefowicz 1977). Table 6.9 shows the r e s u l t s of consecutive f o r e c a s t s of the demand f o r univers i ty- educated personnel.

I n Pol ish planning p r a c t i c e s , qua l i f i ed manpower balance shee t s a r e prepared f o r annual, f ive-year and longer periods. The annual qua l i f i ed manpower balance shee t s a r e produced by the Planning Commission of the Council of Minis ters i n the course of prepar ing t h e na t iona l economic plan. Five-year qua l i f i ed manpower balance shee t s a r e usua l ly prepared twice: f i r s t , a t the d r a f t s tage of the f ive- year economic plan and second, a f t e r t h e plan is approved. I n the second exerc i se , the balances a r e drawn up i n order:

" ( 1 ) t o estimate the demand f o r qua l i f i ed personnel on the b a s i s of the object ives and tasks s e t in t h e f ive-year p lan ;

( 2 ) t o confront t h i s demand with the p o t e n t i a l i t i e s of the regions, e spec ia l ly with respec t t o the supply of school graduates; and

( 3 ) t o determine the general t rends i n t h e pol icy of employment of school graduatesft(K1ucqnski and Jozef owicz 1977).

(thousands of persons)

Long-range p lan f o r 1960-1980 550 6 96 860 - Planning Commission 491 716 817 910

Long-range p lan f o r 1971-1985 558 742 944 1 134

Inter-Ministry Committee 5 0 2 ~ 791 1 031 1 321

Source: Kluczynski and Jozef ovich ( l977) , t a b l e 15.

a ac tua l pos i t ion .

I n Poland, the annual and f ive-year balance shee t s a r e regarded a s important instruments of current employment pol icy, but it is recognised t h a t they cannot provide a b a s i s f o r changing the number and occupational s t r u c t u r e of qual i f ied s p e c i a l i s t s . This funct ion i s performed by long-range qual i f ied personnel balance shee t s t h a t a r e prepared f o r per iods of a t l e a s t a decade, which is regarded a s the minimum f e a s i b l e lead time.

I n Hungary ea r ly manpower plans (around 1950) were formulated on a short-term basis . There were two main reasons f o r a short - time horizon. F i r s t , i n t h e 15-20 years following the end of the Second World War the manpower s i t u a t i o n i n Hungary was character ised by a severe shortage of highly qual i f ied personnel. Because of the l a r g e number o f vacancies i n all occupational a reas a t t h i s time, the re was f e l t t o be l i t t l e need f o r a longer-term assesament of demand. Secondly, a t t h i s time no long-term plan f o r the economy had been developed. Thus, there was no f o r e c a s t of economic and s o c i a l development on which manpower plans could be based (Iva'n 1977). From 1965 onwards, manpower plans covered more d i s t a n t time horizons - a s f a r , i n f a c t , a s 1980. As i n the German Democratic Republic and espec ia l ly i n Poland, annual and medium- term p lans of manpower requirements a r e regarded a s being most useful .for manpower management, but a r e not seen a s re levan t o r e f f e c t i v e , compared with longer-term p lans , f o r use i n educational planning. Educational ca lcu la t ions a r e now made i n Hungary not only f o r the period of the long-term p lan (1970-1990) but a l s o up t o the year 2000.

For the Netherlands the RABAK and WORSA s tud ies have already been re fe r red t o i n Chapter 5. The RABAK (1975) f o r e c a s t con- s i s t e d of two par t s : one p a r t in which the over-all demand f o r un ivers i ty graduates was fo recas t , and one i n which demand is f o r e c a s t by d i sc ip l ine . This study covered the period up t o 1990 and f o r e c a s t t h e supply of graduates a s well a s the demand. Table 6.10 shows the f o r e c a s t demand f o r and supply of un ivers i ty graduates i n the Netherlands by d i sc ip l ine .

- 78 -

Table 6.10: University graduates forecas ts of demand and supply thousands) (Netherlands )

1980 1990

supply demand supply demand

Theology

A r t s and l i t e r a t u r e in- cluding psychology and education

Medic ine

Dentis t r y

Veterinary science

Science

Technical science

Agricultural science

Law

Economics

Social science

t o t a l

The WORSA (1975) study forecas t t ha t the number of new admis- s ions t o universi ty would s t a b i l i s e a f t e r 1978 a t around 23,300. Forecasts of first year admissions f o r 1979 and 1990 and the t o t a l enrolment i n those years a r e given in t ab l e 6.11. While RABAK estimates universi ty enrolment i n 1980 t o be 170,000, the WORSA puts t h i s number a t around 130,000. For 1990, however, the forecas ts of enrolment i n the two s tudies d i f f e r by only 5,000 students. Both of these forecas ts of supply and demand i n the Netherlands adopted the time span of the 15-year forecast - 1975-1990.

Riesels (1967) study of the Federal Republic of Germany was based on data on student stocks and graduates up t o 1964-65. (The background to t h i s forecas t is summarised i n Chapter 5 of t h i s book.) Riese estimated the demand f o r highly educated manpower and the supply of graduates up t o 1981-82 i n t h i s study: h i s main f indings a r e sumarised i n f igure 6.2. The upper p a r a l l e l l i n e s show the over- a l l estimates of the annual demand f o r new entrants t o the graduate labour market (high and low iorecas ts of t h i s demand a re given). The lower horizontal l i n e represents replacement demand. Figure 6.2 shows tha t f o r t he FRG, in t h i s study a t l e a s t , a growing gap is forecas t between the demand f o r and supply of highly qual if ied man- power.

Table 6.11: Forecasts of f i r s t year s tudents and t o t a l enrolment 1

Fi rs t -year Enrolment admissions

Theology

A r t s and l i t e r a t u r e

Medicine

Dent is t ry

Veterinary science

Maths and physics

Technical sc iences

Agricul ture

Law

Economics

Social and po l it i c a l sc ience

t o t a l

Source: Ritzen ( l977) , t a b l e V I I I . l .

I Without r e s t r u c t u r i n g of un ivers i ty education.

I n Sweden f o r e c a s t s do no t a t present look f u r t h e r ahead than the period 1975-80. Thus they could not be used f o r exact calcula- t ions of educational capaci ty t o meet s p e c i f i c manpower requirements, even i f t h e need f o r such ca lcu la t ions were f e l t (Bergendal 1977). The main reason f o r t h i s r a t h e r shor t time horizon is the absence of s u i t a b l e data. The Forecast ing I n s t i t u t e is cur ren t ly prear ing a f o r e c a s t of the supply of and demand f o r graduates i n t h e 1980s, based on t h e census of 1970 and on the 1975 long-term plan.

Table 6.12 shows the numbers employed, o r expected t o be employed, i n the major occupational groups i n Sweden a s a r e s u l t of the ca lcu la t ions of the U68 Commission. The p r i n c i p l e s involved i n ca lcu la t ing t h e new recruitment t o be met from the education system were summarised e a r l i e r in t h i s chapter and were i l l u s t r a t e d i n f i g u r e 6.1. Table 6.13 shows the r e s u l t s of these ca lcu la t ions and gives the estimated need f o r new recruitment from the Swedish educational system.

Numl Finl

100000

goo00

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

Figure 6.2 P I N A L EXAMINATIONS AT INSTITUTIONS OF ACADZMIC TERTIARY EDUCATION, 1953-1980

of \ACTUAL HUUBERb AND FORECASTS) - FSDERAL REPUBLIC O F GERMANY

Examinations

Forecast I I*- (~vera~e length of study: 5 years:

dropout rate: 2%)

I ,-Porecast I1 I I

/ (~vera~e length of study: 5 years: dropout rate: 2%)

thereof Average Replaceuent Demand per Annum

Source: Hufner e t a1 (1977) Chapter Q.

Xiesg- Study (1967)

Table 6.12

NUMBER OF GAINFULLY EblPIPMwD Iti-WJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS 1960-80 (ROUND FIGVRES) (SWEDEN)

Occupational group 1960 1970 1980

Technical work 168000 252000 331000 Medical c a r e 108000 193000 285000 Educational work 81000 124000 166000 Other na tu r a l s c i e n t i f i c , soc i a l

s c i e n t i f i c , humanistic and mi l i t a ry work 80000 122000 173000

kdminis t r a t i v e work 60000 88000 109000 Office work 275000 370000 423000 Commercial wor!r 317000 326000 287000 Agricul ture and fo r e s t ry 505000 306000 166000 Communications 226000 217000 201000 Manufacturing 1165000 11470;OO 1032000 Services 316000 381000 422000

Total 3311000 3528000 3536000

Source: Bergendal (1977), Table 2.18 -

Table 6.13

THE NEED FOR NEW RECRUIWNT FROM THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM (SWEDEIi)

Occupational group

Technical work 31000 43000 52000 53000 Medical care 33000 50000 59000 71000 Educational work 23000 32COO 38000 40000 Other na tu r a l s c i e n t i f i c , s o c i a l

s c i e n t i f i c , humanistic and mi l i t a ry work 16000 22000 27000 33000

Administrative work 2000 4000 6000 7000 Off ice work 87000 85000 86000 90000 Commercial work 44000 37000 33000 26000 Agricul ture and fo r e s t ry 25000 27000 17000 10000 Communications 27000 28000 27000 22000 Manufacturing 149000 11000 109000 112000 Services 47000 40COO 43000 43000

Total 485000 479000 497000 506000 --

Source: Bergendal ( l 9 7 i ) , T a b l e 2.20 -

I n conclusion, educational planning, whether it involves man- power forecast ing o r the estimation of fu ture student flows, must, t o be effect ive, have a t l e a s t one eye on the long-term fu ture . Because of the time span of formal education, manpower developments and changes of trend have t o be iden t i f ied well i n advance. Schools and un ive r s i t i e s take time t o bui ld, teachers need t o be t rained and the time-lag between a cohort enter ing one educational l eve l and emerging as graduates a l l mean t ha t the educational planner must both be aware of , and make quantified estimates of , the fu ture course of events. The fu r the r one looks ahead the more uncertain it is t ha t what is predicted w i l l come t o pass. Illhe fu ture is uncertain and the po in t of making a forecas t , whether of manpower o r anything else , i s t o reduce the margin of uncertainty of fu ture outcomes" (Ahamad and Blaug 1973). It is generally recognised t ha t a c e r t a in amount of accuracy is l o s t by looking ahead 15 o r 20 years, but if f l ex i - b i l i t y is b u i l t in to long-range plans so t h a t planning can r eac t quickly t o newly ident i f ied developments, there may s t i l l be plenty of room f o r the decis ion maker t o manoeuvre.

Converting manpower forecas t s in to plans f o r the educational system can be a complicated business, but it is s t i l l only one s tep towards implementation. Perhaps the most important problem involved i n implementing manpower-based plans f o r higher education i n the r e a l world is t o or ien ta te students i n such a way t h a t t h e i r own educational decisions a r e taken in the l i g h t of the bes t avai l - able information about the needs of the economy. Broadly speaking, the number of students enter ing the various branches of higher education can be regulated e i t h e r by competitive examination f o r a l imited number of places o r by guidance and counselling t o ensure t h a t studentwishes correspond a t l e a s t approximately t o soc i a l needs. Ike ways i n which various countr ies deal with t h i s problem a r e discussed i n the next chapter.

CHAPTER 7

The implementation of manpower-based plans f o r higher education

Once it i s decided how many places need t o be provided i n each of the main branches of higher education the f i n a l s tage is t o put these plans i n t o e f f e c t , o r more p rec i se ly t o make adequate arrange- ments f o r the plans t o be administered. As with the o ther aspects of manpower planning, the ways i n which t h i s can be done depend very much on the soc io-po l i t i ca l , l e g a l and adminis t ra t ive arrangements i n individual countries. I n some cases it w i l l be poss ib le t o determine by l e g i s l a t i v e o r adminis t ra t ive f i a t the number of s tudents i n each sub jec t area on a year-to-year basis . More f r e - quently, l e s s d i r e c t methods of control w i l l be necessary. For example it may be poss ib le t o provide f i n a n c i a l incent ives through the use of scholarships , spec ia l s tudent subs id ies , subs id ies t o higher education i n s t i t u t i o n s and so on. I n other cases the planning a u t h o r i t i e s have only the instruments of counsel l ing and informat ion dissemination.

The most widespread method of implementing manpower plans and of r e l a t i n g the s o c i a l demand f o r places i n higher education t o employment opportuni t ies is through the medium of vocational guidance and s tudent counselling. I n terms of the t h e o r e t i c a l framework given in Chapters 3 and 4 one funct ion of counsel l ing i s t o t r y and ensure t h a t educational provis ion based on the s o c i a l demand f o r places w i l l roughly correspond t o s o c i e t y ' s needs f o r qua l i f i ed man- power. These needs can of course be indicated e i t h e r by manpower fo recas t ing a c t i v i t i e s o r by the trend of employment opportuni t ies on the labour market. It might even be argued t h a t f u l l vocational guidance, based on accurate assessment of needs, would remove any contradict ion between educational plans based on s o c i a l demand and those based on manpower fo recas t s : the re a r e , a f t e r a l l , few s tudents i n higher education who wish t o be unemployed or m i s - employed a f t e r graduation.

This chapter discusses the arrangements which var ious countr ies make t o f a c i l i t a t e vocat ional guidance and counselling and t o implement policy-oriented manpower plans. It a l s o examines the contention t h a t t h e provis ion of information t o s tudents w i l l by i t s e l f help t o solve the problems of ad jus t ing s o c i a l demand t o meet manpower requirements. Our s t a r t i n g po in t , however, is an examina- t i o n of t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s caused by time-lags and r i g i d i t i e s i n the operat ions of the labour market. Since market economies by t h e h very nature r e l y t o a g rea t extent on market fo rces , which a r e believed t o influence s tuden ts , graduates, employed personnel and employers by means of remuneration and employment opportuni t ies , provided information i s ava i lab le , these f a c t o r s a r e of obvious importance.

The market mechanism - the economist's usual shorthand t o dep ic t t h e interdependency of the supply and demand f o r any good o r se rv ice is t o focus on the re la t ionsh lp between demand a s a negative func t ion of p r i c e on the one hand, and supply a s a p o s i t i v e funct ion of p r k e on t h e other. When applied t o t h e labour market, c e t e r i s par ibus , these operations can be represented as:

Demand f o r qual i f ied manpower (D) = negative f (p r ice of qual i f ied manpower)

Supply of qual i f ied manpower (S) = pos i t ive f (p r ice of qual i f ied manpower)

The graphic representat ion of the labour market f o r qual i f ied manpower i n an equilibrium pos i t ion is given by f igure 7.1. The point a t which demand (DD) and supply (sS) curves i n t e r s ec t gives the equilibrium pr ice of qual i f ied manpower. I n t h i s highly simplified example, the equilibrium p r i ce of highly qual i f ied man- power is given a s OX. A t t h i s p r ice the number of highly quali- f i ed personnel prepared t o o f f e r t h e i r services on the labour market is equal t o the number t h a t employers a r e prepared t o h i r e a t t h i s p r ice ( o r sa la ry leve l ) . !Chis number i s given by OY.

Figure 7.1

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR QUALIFIED LlAKPOWER IN EQUILIBRIUM

Relative Earnings o f

a particular categorp

of qualified manpower.

-.

Quantity of

Qualified

Manpower.

I f the equilibrium p o s i t i o n shown i n f i g u r e 7.1 is d i s t m b e d f o r some reason, the speed with which adjustments take p lace t o reach a new equilibrium is of obvious importance f o r t h e e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of resources. The equilibrium could be dis turbed, f o r example, because of an increased demand by employers f o r highly qual i f ied manpower due t o economic growth, o r because of a g r e a t e r supply of personnel from u n i v e r s i t i e s . I f f o r ins tance, we assume an increase in supply because of expansion of higher education, the supply curve would s h i f t t o S1 - S1 and the new equilibrium would be reached a t a wage r a t e of 0x1. If new graduates were r e l u c t a n t t o accept t h i s f a l l i n t h e i r r e l a t i v e earnings it would r e s u l t i n the number Y - Y 1 being unemployed o r a t bes t under- o r misemployed. The time-lag involved i n t h e realignment of supply and demand needs t o be a s s h o r t a s possible i f market adjustments a r e going, by them- s d v e s , t o be ab le t o produce a s a t i s f a c t o r y new equilibrium.

'Ilhe concept of the tlcobweb cyclet1 i l l u s t r a t e s one poss ib le type of adjustment t h a t has obvious economic and s o c i a l disadvantages. E s s e n t i a l l y the tfcobwebw is a graphical represen ta t ion of the e f f e c t s of time-lags on readjustments i n supply and demand i n the movement towards a new equilibrium. Figure 7.2 shows t h a t a new equilibrium pos i t ion is eventually reached by a s e r i e s of p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s , each one of which causes employers o r qua l i f i ed personnel ( o r would- be s tudents , depending on the time-lag involved) t o over-react.

Figure 7 .2

COBWEB CYCLE ADJUSTMENTS I N SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Relative

Earnings of

a particular

category of

qual i f ied

manpower.

s

D

0 e f Y g h Quantity of Qualitled Manpowr .

This model shows t h a t under some assumptions about the opera- t ions of the labour market, it w i l l be a long time before a new equilibrium i s reached. I n the intervening period the re w i l l be a l t e r n a t i n g shortages and surpluses of qua l i f i ed manpower on t h e labour market. Empirical evidence from the United S t a t e s of t h i s type of adjustment f o r some ca tegor ies of qua l i f i ed manpower i s given by Freeman (1971).

"Cobwebv type adjustments in the market f o r highly qua l i f i ed manpower occur when the time-lag between a decis ion t o expand the supply of manpower and the time when new graduates a r e ready f o r employment is so long t h a t changes i n earnings may cause s tudents o r employers t o over-react, so t h a t shortages a r e turned i n t o surpluses and earnings f l u c t u a t e wilaly. Thus, f o r example, a shortage of accountants on t h e labour market, which is revealed by high earnings, rapid promotion, e tc . , may influence many s tudents t o enrol i n accountancy courses, perhaps more than enough t o com- pensate f o r t h e shortage. A s i t u a t i o n of over-supply w i l l then r e s u l t . The s i t u a t i o n i s obviously made worse i f s tudents and p o t e n t i a l s tudents a r e responding t o information t h a t is some years out of date.

The quest ion t h a t has to be faced by any government t h a t aims t o regu la te higher education i n accordance with economic needs i s whether i t i s more e f f i c i e n t t o attempt t o r e s t o r e equilibrium through the use of manpower planning techniques o r by o ther means. The point of disagreement between planners i n favour of manpower fo recas t ing and those aga ins t it is not whether t h e time-lags described above e x i s t o r not ( c l e a r l y they do and a r e important: s tuden ts , employers and educational planners general ly base t h e i r own decis ions on out-of-date information). Nor is t h e r e any dis- agreement about the need t o remedy shortages o r surpluses of man- power a s quickly a s possible so a s to make the most e f f i c i e n t use of resources. The fundamental disagreement is about whether manpower fo recas t ing and its implementation i s an appropria te mechanism t o remedy imbalances and t o e l iminate t h e uncer ta inty of time-lags. Those who favour manpower fo recas t ing argue t h a t the market is unable t o remedy shortages and surpluses on i ts own, and a thorough assess- ment of the country 's manpower requirements i n the f u t u r e , backed up by t r a n s l a t i o n i n t o places i n higher education i s the only way t o a l l o c a t e scarce resources e f f i c i e n t l y .

The view of economists who favour t h e f r e e market is t h a t the re is not a r i g i d re la t ionsh ip between education and occupation, and the short-term adjustments a r e possible i f the p r i c e mechanism encourages employers t o s u b s t i t u t e a category of labour i n p l e n t i f u l supply f o r one t h a t is i n s h o r t supply. Thus the e f f e c t i v e time- l a g between a disequilibrium appearing and the supply of labour r e a c t i n g t o it can be reduced, and the market turns out t o be ab le t o ad just i t s e l f without any severe disturbance.

Both views, however, r e l y t o a l a r g e extent on good information, t h a t is on informing would-be s tudents of career oppor tun i t i es ; even i f the "perfect" knowledge assumed i n t h e o r e t i c a l market economies is unat ta inable , some not ion of l i k e l y outcomes must be present . We now turn, the re fore , t o examine the arrangements made f o r vocat ional guidance and couriselling and graduate placement f a c i l i t i e s i n c e n t r a l l y planned and market economies. I n t h e former, a s we s h a l l see , an attempt is made t o o r i e n t a t e would-be s tudents towards expected f u t u r e manpower needs.

I n the l a t t e r , whils t information concerning l i k e l y employment prospects is i n many cases an important component of counselling and guidance, the information i t s e l f is l e s s precise. Greater weight is placed on encouraging informed decision making by s tudents them- selves, i n the l i g h t of t h e i r own academic i n t e r e s t s and the current labour market demand f o r various types of s k i l l s .

Guidance, counselling and job placement i n the German Democratic Republic

In the German Democratic Republic the planned admission of students to universi ty and the planned placement of graduates i n employment is accomplished through a system of information, advice and guidance w i t h a view to the harmonisation of s tudentst voca- t i ona l preferences on t he one hand and the requirements of society on the other.

It is believed tha t detai led information on the needs of society, the encouragement of i n t e r e s t in needed d isc ip l ines and employment areas and the ttsteeringtt of young people towards them a re a l l necessary t o co-ordinate individual preferences and soc i e t a l needs. nAny uncontrolled development leads t o human disappointments and waste of soc i e t a l resources if it is known from the s t a r t t h a t no r e a l i s t i c p o s s i b i l i t i e s of employment w i l l be availablef1 (Sachse 1977) .

The underlying theme of a l l vocational guidance i n t he German Democratic Republic is thus t o attempt t o bring the vocational asp i ra t ions of young people in to l i n e with the needs of society. Employment opportunities and opportunities i n higher education derived from the prepared manpower plans a r e made known t o young people, and they a r e encouraged t o a c t i n accordance with these soc i a l needs. The preparation and recru i t ing of appl icants f o r higher education a r e pa r t of the organised vocational guidance system. Figure 7.3 shows f o r both higher education asp i ran ts and f o r graduates how individual preferences and manpower plans a r e reconciled.

The or ien ta t ion , preparation and guidance of young people p r i o r t o admission t o higher education i n s t i t u t i ons can be considered i n f i v e stages:

(1) Intensive vocational information and or ien ta t ion begins a t the s t a r t of the eleventh grade of the extended secondary school ( the matriculation examination is taken a f t e r the twelf th grade - see f i w e 7.3). The following mater ial is avai lable t o s tudents f o r information a t t h i s stage:

( a ) universi ty and college guidebooks which describe occupa- t ions by content and employment opportuni t ies;

(b) the planned t a rge t s f o r admisiion of s tudents t o indivi- dual subject d i sc ip l ines ;

( c ) an tlorientation tablet1 on the r a t i o of places i n higher education t o appl icants i n previous years. m e idea is f o r s tudents t o draw t h e i r own conclusions on trends of shortages and surpluses of appl icants f o r d i f f e r en t discipl ines .

F i g u r e 7.3

TIMETABLE OF STUDY CONTROL AND PLACSMENT OF GRADUATES I N THE GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Admiosio

Extended upper secondary schcol (EOSL

Study 1 1 t h grade 1 2 t h grade o r i e n t a t i o n I a p p l i c a t i o n 1 a ~ m i s s i o n 1

Ascertainment of Guiding of preferences preferences a p p l i c a t i o n s -- Cen t r a l evaluation ' I

Plann ing of new admiasions and i n f l u c n r e on ohoioe of s t u d i e s acoording t o demand ind i ca t ed by

t h e Min i s t ry of Higher Education

Plnnning by t h e S t a t e Planning Commission of t h e demand f o r u n i v e r s i t y and co l l ege - l eve l manpower

end admisoions and/or growth of chn nurcber of s t u d e n t s

U n i ~ e r e i t i e s and c o l l e a e s

F i r s t y e a r

Ocoupational o r i e n t a t i o n

Pcnul t ima te s tudy yea:

S t a r t of s t e e r i n g and placement

discussions

Beginning of t h e

f i n a l y e a r

Conclus ion o f employment o o n t r a o t s

P repa ra t i on f o r t h e engagement o f g r adua t e s by f u t u r e employers

Systemat lo placement of

g r adua t e s

P l ann ing of t h e expected Balancing of jobs and e r adua t ee g radua t e s by t h e w i th t h e co-opera t ion of

l i n i o t x y of Higher Educat ion t h e Min i s t ry o f Higher Educat ion and c e n t r a l a u t h o r i t i e s

Cen t r a l o o n t r o l of t he planned p r e p a r a t i o n and placement of g r adua t e s

Sou rce : Sachse 1077.

On the bas i s of t h i s information, vocat ional guidance sess ions a r e organised. I n each province an i n s t i t u t i o n of h igher education has been es tabl ished t o ca r ry out vocat ional guidance f o r a l l d i s c i p l i n e s through the use of exper t s i n each sub jec t area.

( 2 ) A t the next s t age , s tudents r e i s t e r t h e i r preferences f o r s tudying a c e r t a i n d i s c i p l i n e ?a second choice may be indicated) . General personal information is a l s o submitted a t t h i s s t age , A s a r e s u l t of these r e g i s t r a t i o n s , the f i r s t balance of s tuden ts t choices and ava i lab le places i n higher education i s drawn up by computer.

The long-term preparat ion f o r the admission of young people t o higher education means t h a t most would-be s tudents a r e aware of the country 's manpower requirements and the prospects of admission t o higher education. "The r e s u l t is t h a t individual preferences a r e , t o a l a r g e ex ten t , brought i n t o harmony with t h e requirements of societyt1 (Sachse 1977).

m e r e a r e , however, a number of matching problems: the re a r e discipl ines , f o r example, f o r which more young people regu la r ly apply than the re a r e places ava i lab le and v ice versa. I n recen t years those disciplines with more app l ican t s than places include biology, psychology, pharmacy, construct ion, t r anspor t , a r c h i t e c t u r e , medicine, ve te r inary medicine, law and journalism. Too few app l ican t s have i n recen t years applied f o r mathematics, physics, polytechnical teachting and s i m i l a r d i sc ip l ines . The s i m i l a r i t y t o the proclaimed shortage of s tudents i n mathematically-based science sub jec t s i n some Western European countr ies is s t r ik ing .

(3) A t the t h i r d s tage e f f o r t s a r e made t o resolve such problems of over- and under-subscription t o d i f f e r e n t d i sc ip l ines . Fresh vocat ional guidance discussions take place with s tudents and t h e i r pa ren t s , t o t r y t o s h i f t app l ican t s from overcrowded s u b j e c t a reas t o those t h a t a r e under~subscr ibed. Experience i n t h e German Democratic Republic has shown t h a t such renewed counsel l ing usual ly l eads t o c lose r harmony between s tudent uhoice and manpower needs.

( 4 ) Students now submit a c t u a l app l ica t ions f o r higher education by forwarding the required personal documents. To some extent t h e app l ica t ions procedure is interwoven with a c t u a l admission. Schools a r e a b l e t o recommend s t rongly those app l ican t s who rece ive the c i t a t i o n I fpar t i cu la r ly su i ted f o r s tudies t1 . This procedure guarantees study places t o the most a b l e app l ican t s and eases the pressure on s e l e c t i o n by u n i v e r s i t i e s and colleges. Approximately 30 p e r cent of a l l app l ican t s a r e recommended i n t h i s way.

( 5 ) The f i f t h s t a g e bs the a c t u a l admission of app l ican t s t o u n i v e r s i t i e s and colleges. The numbers admitted a r e determined by each I n s t i t u t i o n t s plan of enrolments. For a high propor- t i o n of app l ican t s , admission is determined immediately - those h igh ly recommended by t h e i r schools and others with good matri- c u l a t i o n marks. For a few d i s c i p l i n e s separate admission examinations a r e arranged. A l l app l ican t s not admitted t o u n i v e r s i t y o r col lege a r e involved i n discussione designed t o o r i e n t them t o vacant places on o ther courses and t o determine t h e i r f u t u r e careers .

I n the planning of admissions, u n i v e r s i t i e s and col leges a r e given guidance on the number of graduates they should produce i n each d i sc ip l ine . An appropr ia te ly l a r g e r number of app l ican t s a r e admitted t o the f i r s t year of study t o make allowance f o r s tudent wastage.

We have seen e a r l i e r how admission t o un ivers i ty or col lege i n the German Democratic Republic i s c lose ly re la ted t o employment opportuni t ies f o r graduates. Each en t ran t t o higher education has the guarantee t h a t , sub jec t t o s a t i s f a c t o r y performance i n h i s s t u d i e s , he w i l l be offered a job upon graduation corresponding very c lose ly t o h i s qua l i f i ca t ions . The f i r s t s t ep i n placing graduates i n jobs cons i s t s of es t imat ing the numbers expected t o qual i fy i n each d i sc ip l ine . They can then be "steeredl1 t o the s p e c i f i c employment areas defined a s having the most urgent need f o r t h e i r services . "The s t e e r i n g of graduates . . . is mate r ia l ly and ideol- o g i c i a l l y stimulated on the bas i s of t h e most e f f e c t i v e method. Appropriate s a l a r y adjustments, r ecen t ly a l s o more and more measures f o r the provis ion of housing, child-care f a c i l i t i e s and o ther bene- f i t s i n working and l i v i n g condi t ions , support planning so t h a t i n the end the t a r g e t s can be attained1! (Sachse 1977).

The f i r s t s tage i n the process takes place two-and-a-half years p r i o r t o graduation of the age-cohort concerned, and involves the e labora t ion by the Ministry of Higher Education of a preliminary balance i n which the probable number of graduates a v a i l a b l e , by d i s c i p l i n e and i n s t i t u t i o n , is compared with the corresponding demands of manpower users. A t t h i s s t age it i s possible t o i d e n t i f y sub jec t areas where supply and demand a r e matched a s well a s emerging problems of which no t ice has to be taken. Thus " the problems and possible imbalances a r e sor ted out and the programme f o r t h e placement of graduates is gradual ly worked ~ u t ~ ~ ( S a c h s e 1977).

Eighteen months before s tudents s i t the s t a t e f i n a l examina- t i o n , placement discussions commence. This enables the f u t u r e graduate t o conclude h i s employment con t rac t a year before gradua- t i o n and gives employing agencies advance information on the f u l f i l - ment of t h e i r own manpower plans. An important s t ep towards the ac tua l placement of graduates i n employment is the preparat ion by employers of l lconditions of placementI1. This document c o n s t i t u t e s the o f fe r made by the employer and contains information concerning the place of work, du t ies , remuneration, promotion p o s s i b i l i t i e s and any s o c i a l benef i ts . These placement conditions form the bas i s f o r recruitment. Su i tab le graduates a r e selected on the bas i s of personal discussions between un ivers i ty and co l lege teachers and represen ta t ives of employing agencies, and employment con t rac t s a r e concluded.

There has i n the pas t been no d i f f i c u l t y i n f ind ing s u i t a b l e employment f o r graduates. I n 1971, f o r example, jus t over 50 per cent of vacancies f o r un ivers i ty graduates were i n f a c t f i l l e d by un ivers i ty graduates. The remainder of vacancies were f i l l e d by col lege graduates, technicians , e tc . ( Sachse 1977). Thus, i n these circumstances some vacancies f o r graduates have t o be f i l l e d with personnel with lower educational qua l i f i ca t ions . From 1970 t o 1975 the number of graduates i n the economy rose by some 50 per cent. Some graduates a r e now being engaged f o r types of jobs which, owing t o e a r l i e r shor tages , were previously f i l l e d by personnel with lower qua l i f i ca t ions . This change has caused d i f f i c u l t i e s i n ad jus t ing s tuden ts1 expectations and a s p i r a t i o n s t o

match t h e new s i t u a t i o n , These expectat ions have n a t u r a l l y been s t rong ly influenced by the graduate employment opportuni t ies of previous years: the f i l l i n g of graduate l e v e l pos t s by non-gradua t e s has l ed t o some s tudents regarding t9ese pos i t ions a s of i n f e r i o r (non-graduate) s t a t u s . This problem is one a l s o experienced i n the market economies of Western Europe.

Guidance, counsel l ing and job placement i n Poland

I n Poland, a s i n the German Democratic Republic, "the bas ic need f o r a r a t i o n a l l i n k between manpower po l icy and educational pol icy arose from the s t r a t e g y of f u l l employmentn (Kluc n s k i and Josefowics 1977). The economic s t r a t e g y of the c e n t r a z y planned economies of Eastern Europe has a s a bas ic doc t r ine a management of human resources t o ensure f u l l employment. It is not s u r p r i s i n g then, t o f ind t h a t considerable emphasis i s put on the placement of graduates i n s u i t a b l e occupations a s an i n t e g r q l p a r t of manpower planning pol icy.

I n the p a s t i n Poland there have been considerable discrepancies between education plans based on manpower f o r e c a s t s and the imple- mentation of these plans. The discrepancies can l a r g e l y be accounted f o r by the repeated reforms of the educational system. These reforms were i n a sense forced upon t h e a u t h o r i t i e s by the current needs of the economy and the demand f o r qua l i f i ed manpower, or by the i n a b i l i t y of the economy t o always ensure the f u l l and r a t i o n a l employment of young people.

One c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the Pol ish s i t u a t i o n which appears t o con t ras t with the s i t u a t i o n i n the German Democratic Republic, is the r e l a t i v e l y high proport ion of graduates who do not take up employment i n the f i e l d of t h e i r specialism. The long cycle of education, combined sometimes with the l ack of ea r ly vocat ional guidance and or ien ta t ion , a s well a s occasional e r r o r s i n planning the t a r g e t s f o r the education system have resu l ted in between 10 and 30 per cent of graduates not taking up employment i n the occupa- t i o n f o r which they have been t ra ined. It should be noted t h a t i n Western Europe a f i g u r e of over 70 per cent of graduates taking up jobs c lose ly re la ted t o t h e i r academic specialism would be considered remarkably high.

Although the a t t e n t i o n which was given i n the p a s t t o vocational guidance and or ien ta t ion a t the pre-univers i t l e v e l i s now regarded a s inadequate (Kluczynski and Jozf owicz 19773, considerable a t t e n t i o n has been devoted f o r some time t o the placement of u n i v e r s i t y gradu- a t e s i n appropria te employment. The system of job placement was f i r s t introduced i n Poland i n 1950, with l i t t l e reference t o economic plans. Job placement a t t h i s time was performed mainly by admini- s t r a t i v e instruments of employment d i r e c t i o n and a l l o c a t i o n , assessed on the bas i s of an i n f l e x i b l e and of ten inaccurate percept ion of man- power requirements. This system was abolished i n 1956 i n favour of an employment-service operated job guidance and Aearance system, which was kept i n operation u n t i l 1963. The present system of the planned employment of graduates was adopted i n a Parliament Act of February 1964, and operates within the following terms of reference:

- to determine which graduates should become e l i g i b l e f o r employ- ment placement, a f t e r f i r s t iden t i fy ing the most important s k i l l s needed f o r s e t t a r g e t s i n Poland;

- graduates who obtain employment through t h i s placement scheme must s t a y in t h e i r jobs f o r a t l e a s t th ree years ;

- graduates w i l l be d i rec ted t o t h e i r f i r s t employment by s p e c i a l l y appointed represen ta t ives of the Labour Minis t ry who a r e assigned t o individual i n s t i t u t i o n s of higher educa- t ion .

In t h e decade 1964 t o 1974, jus t under 300,000 fu l l - t ime s tudents graduated from u n i v e r s i t i e s i n Poland. Of these 220,000 graduated i n the f a c u l t i e s covered by the Act of 1964. Ninety per cent of t h i s group were d i rec ted t o jobs through the system of planned employment.

While t h e core components of the current pre-planned graduate employment system bear some s i m i l a r i t y t o the systems i n operat ion i n the 1950s and ea r ly 1960s ( i . e . a l l o c a t i o n on the bas i s of an t ic ipa ted manpower demand, the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c r u c i a l a reas of job placement, and the ob l iga t ion on the graduate t o s t a y f o r th ree years i n the job t o which he has been d i r e c t e d ) the Act of 1964, together with i ts subsequent amendments introduced more f l e x i b l e and l i b e r a l procedures f o r graduate placement.

Three categories of prearranged job placement operate under the condi t ions of the 1964 Act. These are:

( a ) the i n d u s t r i a l grant programme;

(b ) s t a r t i n g agreements;

( c ) employment direct ion.

The f i r s t category of prearranged placement i s designed t o a t t r a c t , by means of economic incent ives , the bes t s p e c i a l i s t s e l i g i b l e t o meet the vacancies o f employing agencies. The gran t s ava i lab le under the i n d u s t r i a l grant programme a r e on average 20-30 per cent higher than t h e s t ipends offered by the academic a u t h o r i t i e s . The regulat ions provide f o r c e r t a i n sanct ions to be applied i n the event of the agreement being broken by e i t h e r s tudent o r employer. Between 30 and 60 per cent of graduates were placed i n t h e i r f i r s t job under t h i s form of sponsorship agreement i n individual years of the l a s t decade.

The " s t a r t i n g agreement" procedure a t t r a c t s the smal les t proport ion of graduates. These agreements a r e usual ly negotiated towards t h e end of a s t u d e n t ' s course of study by s tudents who wish t o obtain secur i ty against the r i s k of imbalances between employ- ment opportuni t ies and the number of qua l i f i ed app l ican t s f o r a given occupation. Under t h i s procedure too, the employing agency gives f i n a n c i a l aid t o the s tudent .

Graduates who have not received i n d u s t r i a l grants o r opted f o r " s t a r t i n g agreements" receive "employment d i rec t ions" from the represen ta t ive of the Ministry of Labour assigned t o individual higher education i n s t i t u t i o n s . These graduates a r e f r e e t o make t h e i r own choice of occupation from among those vacancies reg i s te red with h i s i n s t i t u t i o n .

Kluczynski and Jozefowicz (1977) i d e n t i f y a number of short - comings i n the present system of job placement. However, they recognise t h a t the system i n Poland, while attempting t o implement

manpower-based plans , allows a considerable margin of autonomy f o r the behaviour of individuals , educational i n s t i t u t i o n s and employers. It may wel l be t h i s autonomy t h a t accounts f o r the main shortcomings which they ou t l ine . One problem has a l ready been mentioned - the high proportion of graduates who take up jobs f o r which they have not been t ra ined , i n s p i t e of the job placement schemes. It has a l so proved d i f f i c u l t t o a t t r a c t and s e t t l e s p e c i a l i s t s i n a reas of new development, owing t o the inadequacy of s u i t a b l e incent ives , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n housing amenities. I n add i t ion , it is estimated t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t proport ion of the working time of graduates who a r e c o r r e c t l y placed is i n e f f i c i e n t l y used i n performing tasks t h a t could be delegated t o l e s s qua l i f i ed s t a f f . A f u r t h e r problem, not r e l a t e d t o job placement, but which has t o be taken no t ice of i n implementing manpower p lans , is the high l e v e l of s tudent wastage i n Pol ish higher education. It i s estimated t h a t drop-out from intra-mural s tud ies exceeds 20 per cent of in take, while t h a t from extra-mural s t u d i e s exceeds 40 per cent.

Guidance, cousel l ing and job placement In Romania

I n Romania a l s o it is claimed t h a t "one of the important elements by which the t r a i n i n g of highly qua l i f i ed personnel is regulated is publ ic opinion general ly and the counsel l ing and o r i e n t a t i o n se rv ices provided t o candidates t o higher educationtf. (Pest isanu, e t a 1 1977). Great e f f o r t s a r e made through the counselling se rv ices t o ensure t h a t ind iv idua l s f wishes coincide with the s o c i a l and economic needs of the nation. However, admission to ful l - t ime higher education is determined mainly on t h e bas i s of competitive en t ry examinations, and t h e number of places ava i lab le i n each subject area is determined according t o estimated fuftme manpower needs. Candidates who a r e unsuccessful i n the examination f o r the f a c u l t y of t h e i r choice can opt t o e n t e r another f a c u l t y with l e s s intensive competition f o r en t ry , o r they can t r y again the following year.

Once admitted t o u n i v e r s i t i e s and o ther colleges, s tudents a r e provided with information about the ca reer opportuni t ies open t o them. Each year a government commission seeks from a l l t h e main employing agencies d e t a i l s of the numbers of employees i n each category of qua l i f i ed manpower t h a t they propose t o r e c r u i t t h a t year , and the geographical loca t ion of these vacancies. This information is provided t o s tudents who normally arrange the job they w i l l e n t e r during t h e i r f i n a l year of s tudies . Jobs a r e a l loca ted on t h e bas i s of sub jec t of s p e c i a l i s a t i o n and proved academic a b i l i t y . In order t o ensure a continuing concordance between t h e output of higher education and t h e needs of the economy increasing a t t e n t i o n is being paid t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s provided by permanent education.

Guidance, counsel l ing and job placement i n Hungary

The system of mass vocat ional guidance i n Hungary is associa- ted mainly with the f i r s t po in t of vocational decis ion ( a t 13-14 years of age) when a choice has t o be made between th ree types of school - a choice t h a t determines -by and l a r g e the place the s tudent w i l l take i n t h e s o c i a l d iv i s ion of labour. Vocational ap t i tude t e s t s a r e playing an increasingly important r o l e i n counsel l ing and guidance i n Hungary, espec ia l ly i n r e l a t i o n t o admission t o higher education. The s t a t e vocat ional guidance se rv ice funct ions under the d i r e c t control of Budapest counai l and t h e county counci ls and is equipped t o conduct psychological t e s t s .

The f l e x i b l e nature of Hungarian p o l i c i e s i n r e l a t i o n t o man- power planning and education is summarised by Iva'n (1977). "The matching of education t o the needs of the economy takes p lace through a f r e e choice of ca ree r among the wide opportuni t ies f o r employment. I n such condi t ions , i n d i r e c t influencing of the individual through an e f f e c t i v e l y funct ioning information and or ien ta t ion system i s of p a r t i c u l a r importance." While the s i z e and composition of higher education in Hungary conforms t o the f o r e c a s t needs of the na t iona l economy, the plans a r e implemented l a r g e l y through a system of open competitions f o r jobs. There a r e some doubts about the extent t o which young graduates seeking jobs on t h e i r own succeed i n f ind ing employment i n l i n e with t h e i r education and t ra in ing . A f u r t h e r d i f f i c u l t y i s t h a t the use of open competitions may not correspond t o t h e needs of t h e economy. A t the moment employers can i n v i t e app l ica t ions without any r e s t r i c t i o n s .

Increasing emphasis therefore i s now being placed on securing appropria te f i r s t employment f o r graduates. The preva i l ing be l ie f i s t h a t young s p e c i a l i s t s s t a r t i n g on t h e i r careers need spec ia l a ss i s tance ; i n the i n t e r e s t of giving them a good s t a r t , the a u t h o r i t i e s must take care t o a s s i s t them i n the s e l e c t i o n of t h e i r f i r s t job. "Their employment must not be l e f t t o an acc iden ta l meeting of demand and supply, though it may be supposed t h a t i n most cases advantageous so lu t ions come about i n t h i s way and t h a t many such opportuni t ies a r e revealed which a r e inaccessible t o c e n t r a l in tervent ion" (Iva'n 1977).

Some s tudents i n Hungarian higher education a r e sponsored on t h e i r s t u d i e s by an employer. The "enterpr ise-offered s tudent g ran tv is a contractual re la t ionsh ip between the undergraduate and h i s f u t u r e employer during the period of the s tuden t ' s s tud ies . I n r e t u r n f o r a grant somewhat l a r g e r than t h a t of the s t a t e scholarship, the s tudent commits himself f o r a few years upon graduation t o work f o r the e n t e r p r i s e o f fe r ing the grants . The purpose of t h i s system of g ran t s is t o channel s p e c i a l i s t s t o c e r t a i n jobs with major en te rpr i ses o r t o geographical regions poorly supplied with s p e c i a l i s t s .

The f a c t t h a t higher education is designed t o meet the economy's demand f o r spec ia l i sed manpower s e t s l i m i t s on the number of s tudents t h a t can be admitted t o each sub jec t area. Because of an excess number of app l ica t ions , young people have t o be turned away from studying some d i s c i p l i n e s , whereas i n o ther sub jec t a reas l e s s t a len ted s tudents a r e admitted. It is a l s o a mat ter of con- cern t h a t i n sub jec t s with a very l imi ted capacity the number of app l ican t s o f ten considerably exceeds t h e prescribed number of admissions. Even candidates who achieve a near-maximum number of po in t s i n the entrance examination may be unable t o gain a place f o r the un ivers i ty sub jec t of t h e i r choice i n a given year. It can be seen, then, t h a t the implementation of manpower plans i n Hungary has a s t rong impact on the number of new en t ran t s t o higher education, but upon graduation employment opportuni t ies a r e i n general p l e n t i f u l . 'Ilhe d i r e c t i o n of graduates t o jobs does no t take p lace i n any systematic way. Tbus i n Hungary the planning of output and the placement of graduates is l e f t much more t o individual choice than is t h e case i n the German Democratic Republic o r Poland.

Guidance, counsel l ing and job placement In the Netherlands

General vocational counsel l ing in the Netherlands i s offered by 37 bureaux with 655 fu l l - t ime workers (1974), mainly t o s tudents i n primary and secondary education. In 1973, fewer than 1 5 per cent of a l l consul ta t ions were iven t o young peo l e over the age of 18. Fewer than 1 per cent 7900 consul ta t ions7 were given t o graduates o r un ivers i ty s tudents and only 2.5 per cent t o those i n sen ior technical t r a i n i n g or higher vocat ional education. I n the Netherlands vocat ional counselling does not c o n s t i t u t e an important p a r t of the higher education system - only s tudents with d i f f i c u l - t i e s consul t vocational counsel lors on t h e i r own i n i t i a t i v e o r a r e referred t o them. I f a graduate does receive guidance, it is general ly a s a r e s u l t of a r e f e r r a l by the job placement se rv ice and is usual ly i n connection with the f a c t t h a t he o r she has been unable t o f ind employment.

While graduate unemployment in the 1950s and 1960s was of neg l ig ib le proportions, the employment se rv ices had l i t t l e know- ledge of t h e "graduate sec to r t t of t h e labour market; and so could o f f e r l i t t l e he lp t o those few graduates who found themselves unemployed. I n 1955 a f t c e n t r a l po in t f o r academicsff was e s t a b l i - shed with the object ive of a s s i s t i n g t h e employment se rv ice i n i ts dealings with un ivers i ty graduates. I n 1972 the I tcentra l point t1 was replaced by the BAA (Bureau Arbeidsvoorziening Academici) - a placement se rv ice f o r un ivers i ty graduates. Under the aeg i s of the BAA, 26 o f f i c e s provide a job bank f o r graduates.

The BAA was es tabl ished t o make the labour market f o r univer- s i t y graduates and higher executive personnel l e s s complex. It was f e l t t h a t e x i s t i n g a l l o c a t i v e instruments were inadequate t o deal with a graduate labour market which was growing rap id ly i n s i z e , and was becoming even more complex owing t o t h e growing d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of occupations and sub jec t d i sc ip l ines . A major goal of the BAA is t o reduce the number of unemployed u n i v e r s i t y graduates and t o limit the durat ion of unemployment, while attempting t o f a c i l i t a t e a b e t t e r match betwesn supply and demand ( ~ i t z e n 1977).

I n add i t ion t o i ts network of bureaux a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and regional employment o f f i c e s , the BAA o f f e r s a regu la r l i s t i n g of vacancies, a pe r iod ica l l i s t i n g of un ivers i ty graduates i n search of jobs and a r e g i s t r a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n system. These se rv ices a r e aimed p a r t i c u l a r l y a t graduates in te res ted i n information on the labour market, many of whom do not requ i re any ass i s tance i n the s e l e c t i o n of information o r in the app l ica t ion process, even though such ass i s tance is avai lable . The BAA does not in tervene i n app l ica t ions ; it i s pr imari ly concerned with providing informa- t i o n t o allow the supply of graduates and the demand f o r t h e i r se rv ices t o in te r - reac t more e f f i c i e n t l y .

The c l i e n t e l e of the BAA job banks appears t o c o n s i s t pr imari ly of unemployed graduates seeking work and the underemployed seeking employment commensurate with t h e i r qua l i f i ca t ions .

Apart from the BAA, no other s p e c i f i c measures e x i s t t h a t a r e geared exclusively t o higher education graduates. However, the re a r e o ther instruments i n exis tence t h a t a r e designed t o promote the e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of manpower, and these a l s o a f f e c t t h e pos i t ion of graduates on the labour market t o varying extents . Three subsidy instruments a r e i n operation:

( a ) wage supplements;

(b ) 30 per cent wage-cost reimbursement;

( c ) temporary jobs (TAP).

While a l l th ree can apply to highly qua l i f i ed manpower, the temporary job regulat ions (TAP) a r e more re levan t t o higher educa- t i o n graduates than t h e other two instruments. Ike "30 p e r cent wage-cost reimbursementn app l ies mostly t o graduates of s e n i o r vocat ional t r a i n i n g and higher vocat ional education.

In 1973 and 1974 almost 1,200 higher education graduates were employed under the TAP regulat ions: the temporary jobs mechanism is estimated t o employ between 20-25 p e r cent of a l l unemployed un ivers i ty graduates. The regu la t ions provide f o r t h e f u l l reimbursement of a l l s a l a r y cos t s f o r a maximim of s i x months with a maximum of $700 a month, but only i n fu l l - t ime or temporary government o r semi-government jobs. The TAP i s considered a use- f u l instrument towards helping graduates t o obtain permanent employment.

The wage supplement regu la t ion is intended f o r those unemployed or those about t o be unemployed who a r e w i l l i n g t o accept a ful l - t ime job below the wage r a t e of t h e i r previous job. Because of t h e r e s t r i c t i v e conditions t h a t apply t o the wage supplement regu la t ions few unemployed a r e e l i g i b l e .

The 30 per cent wage-cost reimbursement regulat ion does no t impose such severe r e s t r i c t i o n s . Under t h i s arrangement the Government subsidises non-government employers f o r a period of s i x months t o the extent of 30 per cent of wages up t o a given maximum. This app l ies t o a ful l - t ime permanent job given t o an individual f o r whom placement is otherwise d i f f i c u l t . About 50 higher education graduates took advantage of t h i s regu la t ion i n 1973 and 1974.

In general , therefore , vocat ional guidance is considered appro- p r i a t e t o only a very l imi ted extent f o r un ivers i ty graduates and is e n t i r e l y r e a c t i v e t o t h e current s i t u a t i o n on the labour market. I n t h i s i t con t ras t s markedly with the countr ies described so f a r i n which e f f o r t s a r e made t o o r i e n t a t e s tudent numbers i n accordance with estimated f u t u r e needs of employers. With the exception of the placement se rv ice f o r un ivers i ty graduates (BAA) and t h e temporary jobs regu la t ion such or ien ta t ion se rv ices a s do e x i s t reach very few higher education s tudents o r graduates. Ritzen (1977) suggest8 t h a t more could be done f o r un ivers i ty graduates i n p a r t i c u l a r by way of providing information and advice on the labour market through in-service t r a i n i n g , counselling and guidance. He a l s o recommends the extension of the BAA scheme t o cover higher vocat ional education graduates a s well a s i t s present c l i e n t e l e of u n i v e r s i t y graduates.

Guidance, counselling and job placement i n the Federal Republlc of Germany

I n 1968 the I n s t i t u t f i i r Arbeitsmarkt - und Berufsforschung (IAB - I n s t i t u t e f o r Labour Market and Employment Research) was founded a s p a r t of the Bundesanstalt f i i r Arbeit ( ~ e d e r a l Employment ~ g e n c y ) . Since then the i n s t i t u t e has played a prominent r o l e i n

providing up-to-date assessments of t%e short-run s i t u a t i o n and long- term t rends on var ious labour markets. The i n s t i t u t e t s funct ion is r e s t r i c t e d t o what could be ca l l ed an a c t i v e monitoring of labour market conditions. Concrete measures of in te rven t ion a r e l e f t t o t h e respect ive departments of t h e f e d e r a l and LInder govern- ments o r t o the Federal Employment Agency i t s e l f , a l l of which a r e expected t o r e a c t t o the t rends revealed by the I n s t i t u t e ' s work.

The Federal Einployment Agency's r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s - beyond those of adminis ter ing old-age and unemployment insurance schemes and placement se rv ices f o r the unemployed - extend t o a c t i v e measures such a s devis ing and adminis ter ing t r a i n i n g and r e t r a i n i n g schemes, and counsel l ing and placement a c t i v i t i e s f o r prospect ive new en t ran t s t o t h e labour force. These a c t i v i t i e s take the form of individual counselling i n the agency's regional o f f i c e s , l e c t u r e s to school-leavers and t h e pub l ica t ion of labour market trend assess- ments f o r pup i l s and s tudents . "In general a n a l y t i c a l terms, t h e e f f o r t s of the Federal Employment Agency a r e predominantly aimed a t d i r e c t l y o r i n d i r e c t l y inf luencing the a c t u a l and the prospect ive supply of labour according t o p resen t ly manifested o r an t ic ipa ted demands emanating from publ ic and p r i v a t e employerst1 (Hiifner, e t a 1 1977).

I n add i t ion t o the a c t i v i t i e s of the Federal Employment Agency, the supply of highly qua l i f i ed manpower is a l s o d i r e c t l y influenced through the medium of numerus clausus regu la t ions i n higher educa- t i o n i n s t i t u t i o n s . The s u b s t a n t i a l increase i n the number of young people e n t i t l e d t o en te r higher education meant t h a t capaci ty problems became increasingly severe i n c e r t a i n d i s c i p l i n e s and i n s t i t u t i o n s i n the 1960s. Since between 80 and 90 per cent of young people meeting the formal en t ry requirements of academic t e r t i a r y education a c t u a l l y wanted t o undertake i t , admission r e s t r i c t i o n s had t o be imposed on an ever-increasing number of f i e l d s of study i n the l a t e 1960s. By 1970-71 near ly a l l the f a c u l t i e s of medicine, .pharmacy, psychology and a r c h i t e c t u r e had met t h e i r capaci ty l i m l t s and therefore began t o impose r e s t r i c t i o n s .

A cen t ra l i sed system of admission procedures was estabLished i n the e a r l y 1970s f o r ha l f a dozen f i e l d s of study, regu la t ing en t ry on a republic-wide scale . I n add i t ion , individual u n i v e r s i t i e s o r even individual sub jec t departments had t o impose en t ry regu la t ions of t h e i r own t o cope with t h e i r capacity problems. Thus t h e Federal Republic has t o some extent abandoned the d i c t a t e s of planning on the bas i s of s o c i a l demand: the p r i n c i p l e of freedom of choice of i n s t i t u t i o n s and f i e l d s of study f o r a l l those possessing the formal academic entry q & t l i f i c a t i o n s has been r e s t r i c t e d bv the imposition of numerus clausus regulat ions . Although off i c i a l i y the numerus clausus is determined by considerat ions of cos t r a t h e r than by formal es t imates of f u t u r e qua l i f i ed manpower needs. decis ions about expansion t o meet s o c i a l demand a r e almost c e r t a i n l y i n d i r e c t l y influenced i n c e r t a i n sub jec t s by manpower considerat ions , and by an t ic ipa ted employment opportuni t ies f o r graduates.

Guidance, counsel l ing and job placement i n Sweden

The re la t ionsh ip between higher education and the manpower needs of soc ie ty was f i r s t s tudied i n Sweden i n the 1930s by the Wicksell- Jerneman Commission. Its br ie f was t o inves t iga te the growing d i f f i c u l t i e s experienced by un ivers i ty graduates i n f ind ing jobs i n

the v i n t e l l e c t u a l profess ionsw. I n r e j e c t i n g the notion of a l imi ted intake t o higher education t i e d t o manpower f o r e c a s t s , the Commission recommended b e t t e r information f o r f u t u r e s tudents on labour market prospects, and educational and vocat ional guidance a s methods of easing employment d i f f i c u l t i e s . !Phis emphasis on s o c i a l demand moderated by guidance se rv ices has remained the e s s e n t i a l b a s i s of higher education planning i n Sweden s ince t h a t time.

The National Labour Market Board has offered vocat ional guid- ance i n upper-secondary schools s ince the e a r l y 1940s. I n the e a r l y p a r t of the period vocat ional counsel lors v i s i t e d these schools from time t o time and gave s tuden ts information about the re la t ion- ship between subject d i s c i p l i n e s and the labour market. I n t h e 1950s ca reers teachers were introduced i n t o the then experimental compre\ensive schools, t o help pup i l s make occupational choices. During t h i s period un ivers i ty s tudents were offered vocat ional guidance i n the form of l e c t u r e s by teachers and counsel lors and through var ious soc ia l a c t i v i t i e s arranged by s tudent organisat ions .

These r a t h e r ad hoc arrangements were systematised i n 1964 a s a by-product of the parliamentary reform of upper-secondary educa- t ion . An integrated approach to counselling i n t h e secondary school was then introduced. Counselling was provided t h a t year on the bas i s of co-operation between the labour market a u t h o r i t i e s and the school. The school welfare o f f i c e r was made responsible f o r the p r a c t i c a l co-ordination of the system, and was given t h e t ask of a s s i s t i n g the careers adv ise r from the labour market a u t h o r i t i e s i n providing vocational o r i e n t a t i o n and study guidance.

A t the beginning of the enrolments explosion i n Sweden i n the 1960s, the f i r s t concerted e f f o r t s were made t o c rea te a system f o r counsel l ing and guidance which would reach every s tudent i n primary, secondary and higher education, a s well a s t o serve would-be adu l t s tudents already i n employment. By the mid-1970s the implementa- t i o n of the new arrangements is complete a s f a r a s young people a r e concerned. It i s an t ic ipa ted t h a t the next few years w i l l witness the build-up of s imi la r resources f o r information and outreach a c t i v i t i e s f o r a d u l t s i n work or s taying a t home (Bergendal 1977).

When i n the ea r ly 1970s higher education graduates began t o experience employment d i f f i c u l t i e s , the National Labour Market Board took a s e r i e s of measures i n an attempt t o improve the s i tua - t ion . Within the employment agencies themselves more resources were devoted t o a service geared t o the needs of new graduates from u n i v e r s i t i e s and col leges . This was aimed both a t graduates who were experiencing d i f f i c u l t i e s i n f ind ing employment corresponding t o t h e i r q u a l i f i c a t i o n s , and a t those whose subject specialism had a tenuous connection w i t h employment. Personnel w i t h spec ia l i sed knowledge of the graduate labour market were posted t o employment agencies i n un ivers i ty towns. Although t h e i r main tasks were planning and information, the re was a conscious e f f o r t on the p a r t of the employment agencies t o broaden the job horizons of s tudent and graduate appl icants towards considering riew f i e l d s of employment.

One form of a id of which graduates a v a i l themselves i f they a r e unable t o f ind jobs on t h e i r own o r through the employment agencies is through a system of flemployment t ra ining". I n the p a s t decade employment t r a i n i n g has played an increasingly important p a r t i n Swedish employment policy. The S t a t e takes care of the c o s t s of t h i s form of occupational t r a i n i n g and provides grants f o r s tudents on the scheme. The t r a i n i n g , which may range from a durat ion of two months t o two years has th ree main object ives:

( a ) t o f a c i l i t a t e adjustment of the unemployed t o new jobs and t o provide individuals who may become unemployed i n the near f u t u r e with new s k i l l s ;

( b ) t o help groups who have d i f f i c u l t y f ind ing employment, such a s t h e handicapped ;

( c ) t o meet the need of the economy f o r t ra ined manpower, par t icu- l a r l y where technological or s t r u c t u r a l changes n e c e s s i t a t e the a c q u i s i t i o n of new s k i l l s .

Employment t r a i n i n g i n Sweden has been found t o be an e f f e c t i v e means of solving s p e c i f i c unemployment problems. Current ly more than 2 p e r cent of the labour fo rce is taking such t r a i n i n g every year. Among those taking p a r t i n employment t r a i n i n g schemes a r e a high proport ion of graduates: t ab le 7.1 shows the numbers of graduates from u n i v e r s i t i e s and col leges who have undergone employ- ment t r a i n i n g s ince 1969.

Table 7.1: Number of graduates i n employment t r a i n i n g i n Sweden

Where the re a r e no regu la r job opportuni t ies and when employ- ment t r a i n i n g i s not poss ib le , measures may be taken t o c r e a t e employment opportuni t ies . I n recent years the aim has been t o develop r e l i e f work p r o j e c t s i n order t o meet the demands of new categories of unemployed. Under t h i s scheme a considerable number of new graduates have been offered temporary jobs, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the adminis t ra t ive and se rv ice s e c t o r of the economy. The inten- t i o n of the scheme i s t o give meaningful employment t o those taking p a r t , taking i n t o account t h e i r previous educational and work experience. The scheme a l s o serves the purpose of p r a c t i c e and f u r t h e r t r a i n i n g a s a preparat ion f o r the t r a n s f e r i n t o normal employment.

It can be seen t h a t l i k e the Netherlands, Sweden a t t a c k s the problems o f t h e t r a n s i t i o n from fu l l - t ime education t o t h e labour market i n a number of ways. The most comprehensive is the system of vocat ional counsellingand guidance t h a t pervades a l l l e v e l s of education and is soon t o be f u l l y extended t o adu l t s . I n add i t ion , through employment t r a i n i n g schemes and temporary employment oppor- t u n i t i e s se r ious attempts a r e made t o harmonise p o l i c i e s f o r the supply of qua l i f i ed manpower with the ava i lab le employment oppor- t u n i t i e s . This is done through the a v a i l a b i l i t y of information, t r a i n i n g and r e t r a i n i n g of graduates and non-gradua t e s a l i k e . In Sweden, a s i n the Netherlands, the use of numerus clausus a t the e n t r y po in t t o higher education can a l s o e f f e c t i v e l y limit student numbers i n sub jec t a reas where employment d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e being experienced by graduates.

The r o l e of counselling

"It is the task of the counsellor i n schools and un ive r s i t i e s t o help the student t o analyse h i s own s i t ua t i on , h i s ap t i tudes , i n t e r e s t s and requirements, and t o assess h i s s i t ua t i on i n the l i g h t of the requirements and of the opportuni t ies offered by d i f f e r en t courses of education and d i f f e r en t tasks i n working l i f e n ( ~ e r g e n d a l 1977).

While t h i s claim is applicable t o a l l the counselling systems surveyed i n t h i s chapter, it is evident from the review of exper- ience t ha t some countries take counselling a s tep fur ther . For instance, it is debatable whether a counsellor should have a d i rec t ive o r non-directive function. Policy makers i n d i f f e r en t countries have given d i f f e r en t answers t o t h i s . Many argue t h a t the c o u n s e l l o r ~ s ro l e is t o propose t o the individual s tudent a s e t of a l t e rna t i ve s according t o h i s o r her a b i l i t y , choice of s tud ies , i n t e r e s t s and so on but not t o give advice on which might be best f o r the student i n the l i g h t e i t h e r of h i s a t t r i b u t e s or the needs of the economy. Others maintain t ha t , i n order t o be e f fec t ive , it is necessary not only t o provide information i n a neut ra l way, but ac t ive ly t o advise, guide and "orientate" the student with regard t o possible a l te rna t ives . The debate becomes sharper when counselling attempts t o harmonise individual aspira- t i ons and the manpower requirements of the economy.

Some planners have expressed the hope t ha t accurate informa- t i on t o s tudents and prospective s tudents w i l l prove t o be an adequate method of achieving a reasonable balance between graduate output and the needs of the economy. According t o t h i s view, r e s t r i c t e d admission t o educational i n s t i t u t i ons could then be phased out s ince students would a c t i n a r a t i ona l way. However, it is evident t ha t choices and preferences between various educa- t i ona l options a r e determined by a combination of r a t i ona l and more o r l e s s i r r a t i o n a l fac tors . I n Hungary, grossly over-subscribed departments continue t o a t t r a c t highly qual i f ied school-leavers who stand l i t t l e chance of gaining admission, while other subject a reas could accommodate them. I n the German Democratic Republic, pros- pect ive s tudents a r e aware of the r e l a t i v e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n gaining a place i n d i f f e r en t departments but may s t i l l have t o be re- or ientated towards l e s s popular areas a t the second s tage of the appl icat ions process. The same over-application occurs i n the nwnerus clausus f acu l t i e s of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands. It may be claimed i n the market economies con- cerned tha t more resources invested i n information and guidance could mit igate the s i t ua t i on ; but t h i s does not appear a l toge ther l i ke ly . There a r e convincing theore t ica l arguments t o support a pessimist ic view of the e f f ic iency of information and guidance a s a regulator of the over-all re la t ionsh ip between education and the economy. This is so, espec ia l ly i n the market economies t h a t r e l y pr imari ly on soc ia l demand a s the basis f o r the provision of publ icly subsidised higher education. Given the lack of over-all co-ordination, prospective s tudents i n the market economies who l e a r n of a forecast shortage o r over-supply i n a pa r t i cu l a r occupa- t i o n cannot, a s individual decis ion makers, an t ic ipa te the s i m u l - taneous decisions of a l l the other prospective s tudents who must make s imi la r choices; nor can individual counsellors help them. The cen t r a l l y planned economies a r e a t l e a s t able t o co-ordinate entry t o h ighm education, but it is evident t ha t t h i s does not resolve a l l d i f f i c u l t i e s .

The graduates themselves a r e confronted by a v a r i e t y of job placement and counselling schemes i n the d i f f e r e n t count r ies surveyed. These schemes can be regarded a s a continuum from, a t one extreme, e a r l y job placement of s tudents before graduation, coupled with guarantees of f u l l employment; t o , a t the o ther extreme, opt ional counselling and advice f a c i l i t i e s i f s tuden ts and graduates wish t o a v a i l themselves of the service . A s has been repeated many times i n t h i s book, the a c t u a l system i n opera- t i o n w i l l r e f l e c t the soc io-po l i t i ca l framework within which the higher education system operates. In s p i t e of t h i s basic con- s t r a i n t , the re a r e few who would argue with Bergendalls (1977) observation on the object ives of counsel l ing and guidance:

The purpose of educational and vocat ional o r i e n t a t i o n and guidance is t o give information on educational and occupational opportuni t ies , and t o help the individual t o make a choice whose r e a l i s a t i o n corresponds to h i s o r he r a s p i r a t i o n s and p o t e n t i a l . Thus guidance has t o take i n t o account both the ind iv idua l t s q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and wishes, s o c i e t y t s foreseeable needs and the r e s t r i c t i o n s on educational capacity.

CHAPTER 8

The content of higher education

One of the most common cr i t i c i sms with which the idea of man- power planning has t o contend is t h a t it pays insuf f ic ien t a t ten- t i o n t o the precise content of the knowledge and s k i l l s which a r e implied by the possession of high-level qual i f icat ions. The planner 's primary variable is indeed qua l i f ica t ions , not education: he o r she pred ic t s the need f o r manpower who have achieved ce r t a in educational l eve l s , not, o r not d i r ec t l y , those who have acquired ce r t a in i n t e l l e c tua l and p rac t i ca l capaci t ies . This is not a l to - gether f a i r cr i t ic ism. We have seen how planners frequent ly undertake detai led analyses of jobs and of the s k i l l s needed t o perform them adequately. But it must be admitted t ha t , a s i n other areas of planning, more a t t en t i on is paid t o the r e l a t i v e l y unproblematic, and measurable, quant i ta t ive issues of the s i z e and shape of the higher education system, and f a r l e s s t o the d i f f i c u l t problems concerned with the content of the curriculum.

These problems a r e indeed d i f f i c u l t . They f a l l , i t seems to us, in to two separable areas. One area has t o do with the multiple functions which the higher education system performs: a s we s h a l l t r y t o show, other functions may be damaged by, o r t h e i r proponents may r e s i s t , an over-emphasis on the manpower requirements of the economy. This problem is a broad soc i a l or p o l i t i c a l one: who, o r what needs, should control the content of the curriculum? The other a rea , however, concerns the equally d i f f i c u l t question of the " r igh tn content of an education f o r good job performance i n a rapidly changing i ndus t r i a l society. Here, too, there i s consid- e rab le disagreement, and d i f fe ren t countries have chosen what appear t o be qu i te sharply d i f f e r en t solut ions.

The va r i e ty of uses to which higher education is put were discussed i n Chapter 2. It is c l ea r t ha t the t ra in ing of qual i f ied manpower is only one of these, and t ha t it may conf l ic t with other demands on the education system. One example of t h i s con f l i c t concerns the content of education d i rec t ly : namely, the funct ion of soc i a l and cu l t u r a l education, o r "education f o r citizenship1' which the education system is a l s o general ly expected t o carry out. Pa r t l y t h i s i s a conf l ic t over scarce time or resources. It may take longer t o educate a s tudent i n the spec i f ic vocational s k i l l s which he requires , i f he must a l so spend time on other a c t i v i t i e s which a r e designed t o i n s t i l i n him a sense of h i s r o l e i n soc ie ty , and of the purposes t o which tha t soc ie ty is dedicated. Consider- able ingenuity has been demonstrated i n some countries i n devising methods of teaching and learning which a r e designed t o encourage such values without necessar i ly reducing the time devoted t o the primary technical content of courses. However, the problem may a r i s e more acutely i n ce r t a in areas of study - perhaps c x i e f l the soc i a l sciences. It has been suggested t ha t one (among many7 causes of the student unrest which spread through many univers i t i es i n the l a t e 1960s was the gap which s tudents perceived between the s ta ted aims of t h e i r soc ie ty and i t s ac tua l progress i n achieving those aims. Thus it is by no means self-evident tha t an emphasis i n the curriculum on soc i a l analysis and c r i t i c i sm w i l l automatic- a l l y lead t o be t t e r job performance and a cheerful dedication t o the goals of society a s expressed i n pract ice. On the contrary, i t may lead t o discontent and, i n extreme cases, t o an unwilling- ness t o par t ic ipa te i n the regular work of what may be defined a s a corrupt society.

Another area where con f l i c t might be expected is analogous t o the main area of dispute about the uses of manpower planning; t ha t is, the relevance of soc i a l demand. It is perhaps curious, how- ever, t ha t student demand does not seem t o have any comparable influence on the content of courses in higher education. A s we s h a l l suggest, there a r e other s t rong forces a t work on course content both within un ive r s i t i e s and col leges, and from outside i n the form of demand from the economy. Students, however, a r e only present in higher education f o r a shor t period and cannot, by de f in i t i on , be expert on the curriculum u n t i l they leave. This may pa r t l y explain t h e i r apparently weak influence. But another f a c t o r may be the s t rength of the over-all demand f o r places. Probably the biggest leverage which s tudents could exer t , especial ly i n the market economies, would be t h e i r a b i l i t y t o go elsewhere i f t h e i r cur r icu la r wishes a r e not met. Where competition by potent ial s tudents f o r places is high, and competition.by i n s t i t u t i ons f o r s tudents scarcely ex i s t s , t h i s influence cannot be strong. Never- the less , it seems l i k e l y t h a t the spread of d i f f e r en t forms of recurrent education, the increasing age of s tudents (where t h i s is occurring) and the increasing maturity and l ega l s t a t u s a s adu l t s of young people of student age can, and should, increase t h e i r inf lu- ence on the content of the curriculum.

However, the cen t ra l dispute over the balance of influences on the curriculum concerns the r e l a t i v e weight of the education and employment systems. Again, the problem is posed i n a va r i e ty of ways. One form is r e l a t i v e l y abs t rac t . There seems t o be a po ten t ia l conf l ic t between the research and knowledge c rea t ion function of the education system, and i ts function i n r e l a t i on t o employment. This con f l i c t can be seen i n the s t ruc tu ra l organisa- t i on of higher education i n s t i t u t i ons . A s Bergendal (1977) puts it, there is:

. .. a tension inherent i n a l l education, which is re- f l e c t ed in the planning and fu ture organisat ion of Swedish higher education. The occupational dimension represents an ex te r ior element, whereas the base f i e l d s stand f o r an inner s t ruc ture of knowledge. The balance between the two dimensions is a v i t a l and controversial point of the planning of a l l kinds of higher education.

Such a tension cannot, of course, be solved once and f o r a l l by any mechanical device of s t ruc tu ra l rearrangement. Even supposing tha t good job performance were best served by t ra in ing s tudents I n groups defined by a unique occupational.reference (and, a s we s h a l l show l a t e r , t h i s is by no means se l f -ev ident ) , it would not only be administrat ively awkward and doubtless cos t ly f o r un ive r s i t i e s t o do so, but i t would cut these groups off from any connection with the progress of knowledge i n other re la ted areas. Indeed, it is d i f f i c u l t t o imagclne what purpose un ivers i t i es would then serve t h a t could not be done equally well by groups of employers. To take a simple example, the teaching of medicine is commonly s e arated in to separate schools f o r human and animal (veter inary7 forms, f o r a var ie ty of qu i te sensible reasons, in- cluding the obvious differences of some p a r t s of the teaching curriculum, especial ly i ts c l i n i c a l component. Yet a g rea t deal of our knowledge of human physiology and pathology is derived from animal studies. Medical s tudents do not need t o t a l k t o veter inary s tudents but professors of medicine must probably t a l k from time to time, and must cer ta in ly exchange papers, with t h e i r colleagues i n veter inary science.

The problem of balancing the inf luence of research and employ- ment needs a l s o a f f e c t s the content of t h e curriculum more d i rec t ly . Here, the argument is genera l ly heard a s one of ttconservatismtt versus innovation. Curiously enough, however, the f e a r of conser- vatism is adduced a s the reason f o r a wide v a r i e t y of recommenda- t ions. On the one hand, the re is a p l a u s i b l e f e a r t h a t too g r e a t a re l i ance on ex te rna l ly defined vocat ional education may bui ld i n a r e s i s t a n c e t o innovation. P r a c t i s i n g profess ionals may have too narrow a conception of what is poss ib le , and may wish s tudents t o be taught simply the bes t elements of e x i s t i n g pract ices . The need t o avoid such a p o s s i b i l i t y is, a f t e r a l l , one of the main reasons why t r a i n i n g is done i n educational i n s t i t u t i o n s , and not d i r e c t l y by employers. It is important, in other words, t h a t the re should be a body of academics, who a r e not merely teachers but a l s o researchers and th inkers , and who a r e not confined by the immediate p r a c t i c a l demands of production or of earning t h e i r own l iv ing . Being f r e e from such c o n s t r a i n t s , these teachers a r e supposed t o develop c rea t ive and questioning a t t i t u d e s of mind, and t o pass them on t o t h e i r s tudents , so t h a t they i n t u r n can transform t h e methods of the en te rpr i ses which they l a t e r jo in a s employees. According t o t h i s school of thought, employers who complain t h a t graduates l a c k p r a c t i c a l a b i l i t i e s , o r f a i l t o f i t i n e a s i l y t o t h e i r present methods of work, a r e misunderstanding what u n i v e r s i t i e s a r e capable of doing. I f graduates simply f i t t e d nea t ly i n t o pre-ordained pos t s , they might jus t a s wel l have been t ra ined on the job; and i n any case it must c e r t a i n l y be the duty of employers t o provide them with a c e r t a i n minimum of s p e c i f i c and p r a c t i c a l t r a in ing .

On t h e other hand, the re is a l s o , so it i s s a i d , an i n e r t i a o r conservatism of academic l i f e . Here the re a r e two somewhat d i f f e r - e n t l i n e s of a t tack. One argument is simply the converse of t h a t jus t described. Academics a r e economically i r respons ib le i n t h a t , unl ike p rofess iona l s , t h e i r jobs a r e not dependent from day t o day on t h e i r exper t i se a s lawyers o r engineers. Thus t h e i r teaching can of ten be i r r e l e v a n t t o the r e a l needs of f u t u r e employment and it is only the influence of profess ionals and the demands of employers which bring them back t o ea r th . Indeed, s ince academic cur r icu la have b u i l t i n t o them not only whatever personal conser- vatism teachers may exh ib i t but a l s o the i n e r t i a of a f requen t ly complex adminis t ra t ive s t r u c t u r e , s t rong pressure is needed from outs ide u n i v e r s i t i e s i f new courses a r e t o be developed.

I f the problem is posed i n these p r a c t i c a l terms, it seems t h a t it should be poss ib le t o achieve a balance between these two

:: o t e n t i a l focuses of conservatism. Indeed, i n many countr ies such a s Sweden, Romania, and Poland) attempts have been made t o

involve employers (and governments) more c lose ly i n developing courses; t o ensure t h a t e x i s t i n g courses a r e regu la r ly re-examined f o r t h e i r usefulness a s well a s t h e i r r e l a t i a n s h i p t o new knowledge; and t o ensure a s much a s possible the in te rpene t ra t ion of education and work, hopefully t o the mutual benef i t of both.

But the problem of academic i n e r t i a can a l s o be posed i n r a t h e r more soc io log ica l ly complex terms, which make it seem l e s s easy t o resolve. This br ings us back t o Bergendal's d i s t i n c t i o n between the s t r u c t u r e of knowledge and the s t r u c t u r e of occupations. There i s a tension, however, between occupational needs and not only the s t r u c t u r e of knowledge i t s e l f , but a l s o - more importantly - i ts s o c i a l organisation. For the academic community i s ordered i n a complex p a t t e r n of in te r lock ing h ie ra rch ies both v i s i b l e i n s t i - t u t i o n s and It invisible col legest t (Crane 19723. To change the

content of a course may, i n f a c t , require not so much changing the map of knowledge a s changing t he loca t ion i n which it is t a . Yht The i n t e rna l d i f f i c u l t i e s of in te rd isc ip l inary courses, s t i l more of in te rd isc ip l inary de artments, a r e notorious. Thus any attempt such a s t h a t i n Poland f ~ l u c z y n s k i and Jozefowicz 1977) t o re- combine universi ty departments and i n s t i t u t e s in to a smaller number of broader un i t s , though commendable, requires grea t administrat ive leverage t o make it work effect ively. I n pa r t i cu l a r , it may re- quire a new s t ruc ture of rewards with changed opportuni t ies and c r i t e r i a f o r p~omotion. One of t he s t rongest forces f o r conser- vatism i n un ivers i t i es may well be t h e i r h ie ra rch ica l s t ruc ture , whereby i n most systems new members of the professoriate a r e appointed only by ex is t ing professors, and i n general, the nature of the f i e l d is defined and innovation is controlled e n t i r e l y by those who have benefited from the ex is t ing s t ructure.

Nevertheless, innovations do occur. Bergendal (1977) has outlined some instances of in te rac t ion between the llpullll of the economy and the "pushM from higher education, t o create new courses o r f ind new uses f o r graduates t ra ined i n seemingly i r re levant courses. Among the former he includes new courses i n Sweden f o r public administrators, soc i a l workers, guidance counsellors and computer programmers and technicians. On the lfpushlf s i de , the development of the soc i a l sciences i n the univer- s i t i e s has l ed t o the production of graduates i n l a rge r numbers than a r e needed f o r t r ad i t i ona l types of employment. However, some such graduates have begun work on production l i n e s , and have demonstrated t o t h e i r employers the advantages df t h e i r Ilcombina- t ion of theore t ica l t ra in ing and p rac t i ca l experience" ( ~ e r g e n d a l 1977) . Thus a supply of graduates with qua l i f ica t ions t h a t had not previously seemed useful has caused employers t o c rea te new kinds of jobs. Examples of detai led changes i n course content, a s opposed t o innovations i n the provision of courses, a r e by t h e i r nature harder t o document. But they undoubtedly occur a l l the time i n response t o pressures from both s ides .

So f a r i n t h i s chapter we have assumed tha t the chief d i f f i - cu l ty i n determining course content l i e s i n the conf l ic t ing demands made by d i f f e r en t i n t e r e s t s , o r by d i f f e r en t soc ia l and economic needs. We have implied, i n other words, tha t both un ivers i t i es and employers believe they know (though they may disagree) what is the appropriate course f o r a fu ture employee i n a given industry. I n f a c t , however, t h i s is a gross over-simplif icat ion. For there is considerable disagreement, often on very s lender evidence, a s t o what qua l i t i e s a graduate brings, or can o r should bring, t o h i s o r her fu ture employment. Some of t h i s disagreement has been described e a r l i e r i n our discussion of the issue of ~~c reden t i a l i sml~ . Extreme proponents of t h i s view would have us believe t h a t the content of courses is t o t a l l y i r re levant t o job performance, and t h a t a l l employers wither a re , o r should be, concerned with h i s success i n obtaining a qual i f icat ion. Evidenae which pa r t l y con- firms t h i s view is provided by surveys of graduates t h a t purport t o show how l i t t l e they have made use of what they learned i n higher education. Indeed, the notion of the l t subs t i tu tab i l i ty l l of highly qual i f ied manpower a s a way of adjust ing t o mismatches gives wiight t o the argument t ha t course content should not be rdg&dly t ied t o the performance of one and only one job. Moreover, the normal expectation of the highly qual i f ied is t ha t they w i l l embark on a complex career involving f a i r l y frequent changes i n spec i f i c obs. And e v e n m a c e of technological change s e m s t o require t h k graduates should be adaptable, ra ther than trained t o f i t one pa r t i cu l a r task.

This is indeed the aim of most European planners of higher education. Phrases such a s t t f l ex ib i l i t y t t o r t tadaptabi l i tyt t ( i n Poland), the encouragement of "independent learningtt and "creat ive thinking and act ionft (German Democratic Republic) o r "permanent self-educationft (Hungary) a r e t o be found i n most discussions of objectives. "It would be a negation of the necessary f o r converti- b i l i t y of knowledge and f o r comprehensive education i f we s e t , from the beginning, the objectives of a f u l l u t i l i s a t i o n , i n the job held, of the en t i r e body of knowledgetf (Ivdn 1977). A s Hiifner, e t a 1 (1977) pointed out, t he growth i n enrolments a l so has a tendency t o push the education system away from vocat ional ly or ientated courses and towards a more general content. This is perhaps especial ly t rue i n the Federal Republic of Germany: German univers i t i es have h i s t o r i c a l l y had very strong l i n k s between par- t i c u l a r f a c u l t i e s and the correspond ing professions. These l i nks a r e weakened by the growth i n enrolments, which would inevi tably overcrowd the Bl i te professions. A t l e a s t where growth occurs i n r e l a t i v e l y undifferent iated courses, there w i l l be s t rong pressure t o make these courses more and more general i n t h e i r appl icab i l i ty . Nevertheless, there a r e s t rong pressures i n the opposite d i rec t ion also. Extreme cnedentialism, i f taken ser iously, leads planners t o ask whether higher education is not a remarkably cos t ly way of conducting a se lec t ion process which could surely be shortened and simplified. I n the face of s t rong soc i a l demand, the obvious recourse i s not t o reduce t he provision of higher education but t o ensure t h a t higher education is doing more than se lec t ion , by increasing i ts vocational content. This is very of ten done, not i n higher education a s a whole, but i n t he non-university sec tor ( i n countr ies where such a d i s t i nc t i on appl ies) . Thus, i n the Netherlands, the non-university sec tor is i n f a c t named "higher vocational educationtt, t o d i s t inguish it from the "academicn, non- applied content of universi ty education. We suggested e a r l i e r (Chapter 2) t h a t a binary system of higher education is a normal response t o growth; and t h i s seems t o be so i n p a r t because there is a l i m i t i n any economy to the number of highly qua l i f ied by non- vocat ional ly trained manpower tha t can be absorbed in to employment.

There a r e , however, a l so pressures - perhaps because of cost considerations - t o increase the vocational component of academic, un ivers i ty education. One might well expect these t o occur i n the cen t ra l ly planned economies, where manpower planning is used t o determine the required numbers both i n education and employment. The connection between the two sec tors must be reasonably pre- d ic tab le f o r manpower planning t o succeed; and how b e t t e r t o ensure t h i s than by i n s i s t i ng on a subs tan t ia l vocational component? This has undoubtedly been the case i n the pas t but it is now the market economies which seem .to be emphasising vocational content. I n the Federal Republic of Germany, t he Science Council ( ~ i s s e n s c h a f t s r a t ) has cal led f o r a g rea te r vocational component i n higher education, a s has the W68If Commission i n Sweden; while in the Netherlands the au tho r i t i e s a r e proposing an increasing s imi l a r i t y between the curr icula of higher vocational education and the un ivers i t i es . Sweden, a t l e a s t , is preparing t o deal with t he problems of sub- s t i t u t i o n and adaptation by increasing enormously the number of shor t courses, both in-service and f o r re t ra in ing , which w i l l be provided. Meanwhile, Poland and the German Democratic Republic a r e ta lk ing of returning much of the vocational component t o employers, and concentrating on education f o r innovat ion and crea ti- v i ty . Perhaps the only conclusion t o be drawn from t h i s review of f ac to r s which should o r might influence course content is t h a t there is, a s ye t , very l i t t l e c e r t a in ty i n e i t h e r type of economy a s t o the appropriate educational content f o r a wide range of jobs.

The r o l e of l i f e long education

This is not the place f o r an extended discussion of the r o l e of l i f e long education i n a manpower orientated higher education system. There have i n recent years been very many publicat ions on l i f e long education and the re la ted concepts of recurrent educa- t ion , permanent education, continuing education, and so on ( see , f o r example, Williams 1977). However, the acceptance of l i f e long education a s a p r ac t i ca l guiding pr inc ip le f o r the fu r the r develop- ment of educational systems i n many countr ies of the world c lear ly cannot be ignored by those who a r e concerned with planning t o meet the nat ional needs f o r highly qual i f ied manpower. There can be l i t t l e doubt tha t i f opportunities f o r higher education a r e genuinely ava i lab le throughout the l i fe t ime of individuals the task of the manpower planner can become very much eas ie r .

Some of the d i f f i c u l t i e s confronting those who attempt t o base higher education plans on forecas t s of quali'f ied manpower needs have been discussed i n Chapter 3. I n b r i e f , they a r i s e l a rge ly from the following fac tors : the long time horizon necessary; the cer ta in ty of unpredictable technological change i n any growing economy; the d i f f i c u l t y of establ ishing an educational system which can provide i n d e t a i l a l l the thousands of spec i f ic s k i l l s t h a t high-level workers require; the l imi ta t ions on an individual s freedom of occupational choice which can a r i s e if young people a r e trained f o r one and only one spec i f ic job; and the problem of ensuring a smooth path of development f o r higher education, while a t t he same time overcoming spec i f ic high-level manpower shortages a s quickly a s possible. To be able t o d i s t r i bu t e higher education opportuni t ies throughoat the l i fe t ime of individuals instead of con- centrat ing them p r i o r t o en t ry in to the labour force can make a subs tan t ia l contr ibut ion t o the solut ion of a l l these problems. It can a l so contribute t o an improvement of the re la t ionsh ips between the content of higher education and the needs of t he w o r l d of work. In the remainder of t h i s chapter we consider each of these s i x issues i n turn.

Length of planning period

There a r e r e a l l y two aspects of t h i s problem. One of the reasons why there a r e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n adjust ing the output of the higher education system to meet the needs of employment is *at, under t r ad i t i ona l arrangements f o r higher education, graduates a r e i n employment f o r a period of 40 years o r more a f t e r they have com- pleted t h e i r higher education. Thus, i n pr inc ip le a t l e a s t , any manpower forecastil ig exercise ought t o look a t the t o t a l l i f e tune career prospects ava i lab le f o r various kinds of spec i a l i s t s , and not just a t t h e i r prospects a t the point of entry in to the labour force. This is pa r t i cu l a r l y important i n occupations with r ig id hierarchical career s t ruc tures . I f a period of rapid growth of a pa r t i cu l a r occupational category is followed by much slower growth, ser ious promotion bottlenecks w i l l r e su l t ; e i t he r the proportion of workers who can expect promotion t o the senior grades must decl ine, o r the average age a t which they expect promotion must r i s e . E i ther event would normally be considered a de te r iora t ion

of career prospects. One e f f ec t of the explosive expansion of higher education during the 1960s was t o create just such promotion bottlenecks in univers i t i es and colleges. The second reason why a long time horizon is necessary i n manpower planning is t ha t i f higher education is t o provide young people with a l l the s k i l l s and knowledge they may need throughout t h e i r working l i v e s the length of i n i t i a l t ra in ing must be f a i r l y long. Four years is i n prac t ice about the minimum; i n the Netherlands it is normally seven t o e igh t years. To t h i s time period required f o r ac tua l t ra in ing must be added the length of time necessary before planning decisions can be made effect ive. This period is often another two o r th ree years i n decentralised systems such a s t ha t of the Federal Republic of Germany. Thus a s much a s ten years may elapse before a decision by planners t o change the output of pa r t i cu l a r types of graduates can have any subs tan t ia l e f f ec t upon the numbers enter ing the labour force with t ha t pa r t i cu l a r qua l i f ica t ion .

A system of l i f e long opportuni t ies f o r higher education can help t o a l l e v i a t e both of these problems.

Essent ia l ly , it does so by introducing a grea te r degree of f l e x i b i l i t y into the education-employment relat ionship. Let us take a theore t ica l example. Under t r ad i t i ona l arrangements, four years of higher education may be expected t o l a s t an individual f o r 40 years of working l i f e . Leaving aside the problems of technolo- g i ca l change and the depreciat ion and obsolescence of s k i l l s , which a r e dea l t with below, each year of higher education would then provide t ra in ing f o r t en years of working l i f e . In order t o make a f u l l y successful manpower plan i n such a system a planner would need t o have some broad perspective f o r the 40 years t ha t graduates w i l l be i n the labour force , and t o allow f o r a period of a t l e a s t s i x years before decisions taken now can have an e f f ec t on the number of newly qual i f ied workers enter ing the labour force. Let us suppose t ha t t h i s is replaced by a system i n which each individual has the opportunity of s i x months of ful l - t ime higher education every f i v e years o r so. I n t h i s case the length of working l i f e which would need to be covered by each dose of education would be f i v e r a the r than 40 years and it would be between s i x months and a year before planning decisions could be made e f fec t ive r a the r than s i x years or more.

Of course, i n prac t ice there a r e l i k e l y t o be many complexi- t i e s . Certainly an i n i t i a l period of higher education longer than s i x months would almost c e r t a in ly be necessary. Furthermore, there a r e l i k e l y t o be many interdependencies between previous work experience, a b i l i t y t o absorb new kinds of higher education and new career prospects. However, the pr inc ip le t ha t l i f e long learning opportunities can reduce very considerably the time horizon over which de ta i led manpower forecas t s need t o be made is a very impor- t an t one, i n pract ice a s well a s i n theory.

Spec i f ic i ty of s k i l l s

I n any dynamic modern economy many thousands of spec i f i c s k i l l s a r e required i n the labour force and these a r e constantly changing. It is qui te impossible to expect the educational system to provide young people with a l l the s k i l l s tha t they w i l l require throughout t h e i r working l i ve s . The r o l e of education, including higher education, should be to provide young people with the i n t e l l e c tua l equipment t o be able t o l e a r n the spec i f i c s k i l l s which a r e required

in the kind of employment they enter. This is not an argument against a l l spec ia l i sa t ion i n higher education. To some degree it makes sense t o group d i f f e r en t kinds of s k i l l s together. For example, some occupations require the a b i l i t y t o manipulate quanti- t a t i v e data; others require the a b i l i t y t o wri te convincing and persuasive repor t s and so on. We have seen i n Chapter 8 how basic f i e l d s of study can be re la ted t o occupational t ra in ing sectors . However, t h i s can be done only a t a f a i r l y high l eve l of aggrega- t ion. I n any higher education system which aims t o meet spec i f ic manpower needs there w i l l be constant pressure from employers f o r the content of higher education t o be more and more job specif ic . This w i l l enable graduates t o take up pa r t i cu l a r occupations a t l e s s cost i n i n i t i a l t ra in ing t o employers; but it w i l l a l so make it l e s s easy f o r them t o acquire other s k i l l s , o r t o change t h e i r jobs as t h e i r careers develop. Lifelong education provides a way out of t h i s dilemma.

!!!he idea l curriculum i n a system of l i f e long education m i g h t enable s tudents t o acquire a combination of very generalised trans- fe rab le s k i l l s (such a s the a b i l i t y t o communicate i n one o r more languages, o r a thorough knowledge of fundamental mathematical ideas) together with the very spec i f ic s k i l l s required by the s tudent f o r the pa r t i cu l a r occupation he intends to take up when he f i r s t en te rs the labour force. These would presumably be mainly vocational but could a l so include those c iv i c s k i l l s , in the case of high-level manpower, necessary t o funct ion a s a community leader. More and more modules of spec i f i c knowledge could then be added throughout the individual 's l i f e a s he had need of them. Once again the implication f o r manpower planning is tha t it would lessen the need f o r detai led and r i g id long-term plans.

The problem of technological change

When the concept of l i f e long education s t a r t ed t o be taken ser ious ly during the 1960s one of the main motive forces was the growing r ea l i s a t i on tha t i n many technical and applied s c i e n t i f i c professions, such a s engineering, medicine and agr icu l ture , techno- l og i ca l change was becoming so rapid t h a t a s ing le ffdoself of educa- t i o n ea r ly i n l i f e was no longer su f f i c i en t t o l a s t people through- out t h e i r working l i f e . Their knowledge became obsolete long before they reached retirement. The r e s u l t was not only economic ineff ic iency but a l so a l l kinds of psychological tensions within individuals and between individuals , especial ly between older and younger professional workers.

This need f o r updating of s k i l l s brought about by technological change l ed t o the rapid development i n many countries of post- experience higher education. This has been the subject of a useful. s e r i e s of s tud ies by the Internat ional I n s t i t u t e f o r Educational Planning. The s tud ies revealed t ha t there has been a considerable development i n post-experience higher education i n many countries, especial ly i n the area of management education. This expansion has been pa r t l y the r e s u l t of "growing demand from governments, industry, agr icu l ture and other branches of a c t i v i t y a s well a s from s p e c i a l i s t s and former graduates of higher education who wish t o improve t h e i r qua l i f ica t ions , update o r r e t r a in t f ( ~ n u s h k i n 1974) .

Stoikov (1973) has pointed out t ha t there are two d i f ferent processes which r e su l t in the need f o r refreshment of the s k i l l s and a b i l i t i e s of individual workers. "There is the physical de ter iora t ion of the individual and the deteriorat ion of h i s s k i l l s and knowledge. These two a r e not necessari ly re1ated.o

Physical deteriorat ion which i n most cases can simply be equated with forget t ing things which were learned a long time ago, provides an obvious need f o r re t ra in ing where an individual is going t o take on new occupational responsibi l i t ies . A s people get older they forget things they have learned and lose the a b i l i t y t o absorb new information, unless they have the opportunity of using t h e i r knowledge and exercising t h e i r learning s k i l l s from time to time. Thus, even i f there were no technological change, there would s t i l l be an important r o l e f o r higher education in providing re t ra in ing f a c i l i t i e s f o r adul t s a t various stages in t h e i r working l ives. The r i s k of such forgetfulness is par t icu lar ly strong when human cap i t a l is not put t o use f o r some time, a s i n the case of workers who are subject t o long periods of unemployment. The pro- blem may be pa r t i cu l a r ly serious f o r highly qualified women who subsequently spend several years outside the labour force bringing up t h e i r children.

Deterioration of s k i l l a and knowledge occurs f o r several reasons and i n several d i f fe rent ways. Many jobs, even highly sk i l led ones, require long periods of routine work which can r e s u l t i n staleness. Workers develop automatic behaviour responses tha t inhib i t them from responding t o changes when they do occur. In jobs where sudden emergencies occur, or where high leve ls of a t t e n t ion and a b i l i t y a r e required intermit tent ly, the consequences of such deteriorat ion may be serious. In addit ion to the more dramatic aspects of the problem, workers with specialised s k i l l s often find themselves i n work s i tua t ions where they a re isolated from other workers with s imi lar s k i l l s . Opportunity f o r discussion with other spec i a l i s t s can be a valuable educational experience, giving new in t e re s t t o the job and enhancing efficiency.

However, a more important type of deteriorat ion of s k i l l s is tha t brought about not by changes in the mental a b i l i t i e s of the individual worker but by new s c i e n t i f i c discoveries and changes i n technology. People affected by such changes need to have t h e i r knowledge and s k i l l s updated from time t o time i f they a re t o con- t inue t o make t h e i r f u l l contribution t o the economy and t o society. If opportunities f o r such updating and refreshment of knowledge and s k i l l s a r e f r ee ly avai lable, planners a r e again freed from the necessi ty t o attempt the impossible task of making detai led fore- ca s t s of technological change.

Limitation on freedom of occupational cholce

The more spec i f ic is the i n i t i a l vocational t raining received by students, the l e s s choice of occupation do they have when they come t o enter the labour force. This is not i n t r in s i ca l ly bad. Someone who has acquired s k i l l s which w i l l enable him to enter a well-paid job with high soc i a l s t a tu s and prest ige is unlikely to f e e l encumbered by t h i s l imi ta t ion on h i s freedom of choice. How- ever, not a l l individuals w i l l have been so lucky. For many, a l i f e long r e s t r i c t i o n of job opportunities based ent i re ly on academic performance during a period of higher education before entry to the labour force, w i l l appear a s a very considerable burden. Neverthe- l e s s , t h i s is one of the possible implications of detai led manpower planning of t rad i t ional higher education. Lifelong education of fers a way out of t h i s s t r a i t j acke t : but it a l so has dangers.

One of the most de l i c a t e issues i n l i f e long education is tha t of educational credent ials . Credentialism, r e f e r r i ng t o the co l lec t ion by students of possibly i r re levant c e r t i f i c a t e s of educational attainment i n order t o impress employers, has i n recent years been the subject of much c r i t i c i sm (e.g. Dore, 1976).

The alleged e v i l s of credentialism a r e , f i r s t , t h a t those who obtain paper qua l i f ica t ions a r e believed to be favoured i n recru i t - ment t o ce r t a in jobs a t the expense of equally able people without formal qua l i f ica t ions ; secondly, tha t the pursu i t of these pieces of paper by individuals wishing t o obtain such discrimination i n t h e i r favour r e s u l t s i n a depreciation of the value of qual i f ica- t ions ; and, t h i rd ly , t ha t a preoccupation with examinations and assessment d i s t o r t s the purposes and processes of education. The f i r s t of these c r i t i c i sms must by def in i t ion be t rue of any system of higher education based upon manpower planning unless it is accompanied by an ideal system of i n i t i a l select ion. There is l i t t l e evidence t h a t such an ideal system of s e l ec t i on has ye t been developed.

I n many countries the expansion of higher education i n the 3960s l ed t o a s i t ua t i on i n which educational c redent ia l s were deemed necessary prerequis i tes f o r entry t o jobs where the formal educational experience which led t o the qua l i f ica t ion was not s t r i c t l y necessary f o r the successful performance of the jobs. It is indeed very convenient f o r employers t o be able t o use educa- t iona l q u a l i f i c a t b n s a s a preliminary screening device i n se lec t ing recru i t s . It is a prac t ice t ha t has much to recommend it. It can l i m i t the advantages of r i c h and powerful persons by curbing (but unfortunately not en t i r e ly removing) t h e i r a b i l i t y t o use t h e i r wealth, influence and access t o information t o secure employment advantages f o r themselves and f o r t h e i r children. Furthermore, s ince passing examinations normally required a ce r t a in amount of a b i l i t y and hard work, the use of educational c redent ia l s a s c r i t e r i a of e l i g i b i l i t y f o r high-level jobs eliminates those who have l i t t l e a b i l i t y o r who a r e i r re t r ievably lazy. However, i t a l so eliminates many people who, f o r f inanc ia l o r soc i a l reasons, o r because they were badly advised o r merely u n l u c e a t c r i t i c a l po in ts i n t h e i r educational career , were not ab le t o obtain the r equ i s i t e qual i f icat ions.

One of the main aims of l i f e long education is t o provide a network of f l ex ib l e educational and career options. It would be i ron ic indeed if l i f e l a n g education i t s e l f , by providing creden- t i a l s , r e s t r i c t ed opportuni t ies f o r career advancement t o people who have had pa r t i cu l a r educational experiences. It would be a perversion of the aims of l i f e long education if its spread turns out t o mean t ha t evaluation not only of an individual 's s u i t a b i l i t y f o r i n i t i a l recruitment but a l so h i s f i t n e s s f o r promotion i n h i s career is determined l a rge ly on the bas i s of formally acquired educational qual i f icat ions. However, it is un rea l i s t i c t o assume tha t the f u l l benefi t of l i f e long higher education can be obtained without the award of c e r t i f i c a t e s of competence t o those students who successfully undertake courses of retraining. The important point is to ensure t ha t opportunities t o obtain the qua l i f ica t ions a r e a s open a s possible; and t h a t s tudents a r e not precluded f o r un jus t i f iab le reasons from undertaking courses t h a t w i l l enable them t o fu r the r t h e i r careers.

It is also important - and t h i s m u s t be a par t icu lar responsi- b i l i t y of manpower planners - t ha t workers who have successfully undertaken courses should be able t o f ind jobs tha t a re commensur- a t e with t h e i r new levels of competence. Provided tha t these safeguards a re observed, the existence of continuing educational opportunities throughout l i f e w i l l lessen any sense of grievance tha t an individual worker may f e e l i f h i s i n i t i a l qual if icat ions do not enable him to obtain the job tha t he would r e a l l y l ike .

Stable paths of higher education expansion

I n a l l the countries which make extensive use of manpower planning, considerable importance is attached t o the securing of s tab le paths of growth i n higher education, even where the r a t e of growth of required manpower stocks is somewhat e r r a t i c . The essence of the problem is the simple mathematical relat ionship between stocks and flows. I f attempts a r e made rapidly t o over- come a shortage of par t icu lar kinds of qualified manpower through increasing the number of new entrants t o the labour force, t h i s w i l l require a l eve l of enrolments i n higher education tha t is not sustainable in the long run when the i n i t i a l manpower shortage has been overcome. Two kinds of d i f f i c u l t i e s can follow from the resul t ing f luctuat ion, One is over-capacity of teachers and equipment i n cer ta in branches of higher education. The other is a sense of unfairness amongst new generations of potent ia l students, i n t ha t the breadth of higher education opportunities open to them is l e s s than tha t available t o t h e i r predecessors. Such fluctua- t ions can a lso lead t o imbalances and promotion bottlenecks i n the stock of qual if ied manpower. If shortages of qual if ied manpower can be overcome by upgrading the exist ing manpower stock throwh short courses of re t ra in ing , both the potent ia l excess capacity and the sense of l o s t opportunity w i l l be very much reduced.

The content of higher education and the needs of the world of work

We have seen i n Chapter 8 tha t unless s teps a re taken to counter them there a re strong tendencies f o r the content of higher education t o be determined by academic c r i t e r i a , the needs of the d isc ip l ine , ra ther than by the needs of the economy and society. A system of higher education based upon l i fe long education, i n which a majority of the students h w e already had substant ial experience of the world of work is f a r more l i k e l y t o be under pressure from its students t o o f f e r courses which are relevant t o economic needs. The authori ty of teachers i n such a system w i l l depend not upon the i r grea ter age and experience but upon whether they have something t o teach which the adult students wish t o learn. This point has been made very forcibly i n a study of the re la t ions between higher education and manpower planning i n Sweden:

When the wisdom of adding one three-year cycle t o another i n education has been questioned, one of the major points of c r i t ic i sm is that the contacts between the s tudies and the w0rJ.d of work are ge t t ing too weak. Young people of the age of 25, who have not yet had f u l l job responsibi l i ty, run too great a r i s k t o be alienated t o society and its requirements. Also, a meritocracy is being developed i n which a cer ta in formal education is considered necessary f o r a job even in

cases where p r a c t i c a l experience would be a s good o r b e t t e r a background ... Early periods of work w i l l allow young people t o t e s t t h e i r a b i l i t i e s so a s t o give a good background f o r the choice of f u t u r e a c t i v i t i e s . The young may want t o go on i n the f i e l d of t h e i r first choice, using on-the-job t r a i n i n g o r formalised s t u d i e s t h a t can be highly spec ia l i sed o r very general. They may a l s o want t o change t h e i r f i e l d of a c t i v i t y . I n e i t h e r case, the experiences, s k i l l s , know- ledge, and a t t i t u d e s gained i n work w i l l moet probably be an a s s e t i n the f u t u r e , f o r both t h e individual and h i s work, Bergendal (1977).

I n summary there can be l i t t l e doubt t h a t i n both t h e formula- t i o n and implementation of manpower based plans f o r higher educa- t i o n i n t h e i r quan t i t a t ive and q u a l i t a t i v e aspec t s , the development of l i f e l o n g education provides unprecedented opportuni t ies f o r t h e harmonisation of the demands of individual s tuden ts with t h e general needs of s o c i e t y f o r qua l i f i ed manpower. Bergendal (1977) con- cludes:

Is i t r e a l i s t i c t o think t h a t recur ren t education, and the po l icy measures connected with it within the a r e a s of both education and work, w i l l reconci le individual and s o c i a l aspects? Ban planning based on individual preferences a l s o meet the needs of society? Even i f i t is probably u n r e a l i s t i c t o bel ieve i n t o t a l harmony with no c o n f l i c t s between the var ious i n t e r e s t s involved, it seems t h a t recur ren t education w i l l g ive some hope of improvement . .. The establ ished po l icy of educational planning has s t ressed

g e n e r a l i t y and the postponement of occupational spec ia l i sa t ion . Recurrent education o f f e r s an a l t e r n a t i v e i n which breadth is accomplished not e s s e n t i a l l y by the g e n e r a l i t y of a b s t r a c t s tud ies , but by the varied experiences over a broad f i e l d of human ac t iv i tdee . It may then be an advantage t o introduce some s p e c i a l i s a t i o n f a i r l y e a r l y , not a s a decis ive s t e p t o produce a narrow s p e c i a l i s t f o r l i f e , but a s an element of a broad individual p a t t e r n of experi- ences.

The f u l l implications of recur ren t education a r e not only t o improve p o s s i b i l i t i e s t o make education meet the demands of the economy. A t l e a s t a s e s s e n t i a l is the poss ib le s t rong inf luence of education and science on t h e development of the economy and on s o c i e t y a s a whole.

Woman power

I n Chapter 1 we i l l u s t r a t e d the well-horn. f a c t t ha t one of the experiences common t o every European country in the post-War period was a marked expansion of higher education. Another general phenomenon has been t he increased pa r t i c ipa t i on of females. It is not our purpose here t o d i s c u s the complex phenomena which underl ie t h i s trend, except in so f a r a s they concern planners of manpower needs and of higher education. It is useful , however, t o ind ica te the extent of change s ince 1950 i n the seven European countr ies under consideration: these changes a r e summarised i n t ab l e 10.1.

Table 10.1: Percentage of s tudents i n third- level education who a r e female

Germany, Fed. Rep. 1 9 19 23 24 26 34* Germany, Dem. Rep. 23 29 3 2 28 43 52 Hungary 24 33 39 43 47 Netherlands 21 25 26 25 28 31 Poland 36 36 41 46 47 53 Romania 33 35 3 3 3 9 43 44 Sweden 23 29 3 3 41 4 2 46

* 1975 figure.

The f igures i n t ab l e 10.1 a r e derived from repor t s t o UNESCO. We must again warn against placing too much emphasis on in te rna t iona l comparisons, since the types of i n s t i t u t i o n include under "third- l e v e l v education can vary from country t o country o r even from year t o year within one country. Nevertheless, c e r t a in t en t a t i ve com- parisons may be legi t imate. Primarily, however, the t ab l e shows a steady increase i n every country in the proportion of s tudents who a r e women. A t one extreme, i n the Netherlands women have in- creased from 21 per cent t o 31 per cent a s a proportion of the student body; a t the other , i n the German Democratic Republic they have increased from 23 per cent t o 52 per cent. I n almost every country the r a t e of change has been f a i r l y steady throughout the 25-year period. Indeed, i n some countr ies the two f ac to r s of population growth and increased female pa r t i c ipa t i on i n higher education go f a r towards accounting f o r the increase in soc i a l demand.

Despite our reservat ions about in te rna t iona l comparisons, it is hard t o escape the observation t ha t t he cen t ra l ly planned economies and Sweden have been considzrably more successful than the Nether- lands and t he Federal Republic of Germany i n increasing female par t ic ipa t ion , and indeed i n reducing sex differences t o a minimum. In the former f i v e countr ies , women now cons t i tu te nearly half of a l l third- level s tudents (more than ha l f i n the case of Poland and the German Democratic Republic) ; whereas i n the Netherlands and the Federal Repufil i c , the proportion is approximately one -third. However, i n the ea r ly 1950s we should not have grouped the countr ies i n the same way: a t t h a t time Poland and Romania had high l eve l s of female pa r t i c ipa t i on ( a t around one-third of a l l s tudents) compared with the f i v e other countr ies , each with a l i t t l e l e s s than one- quarter. It may be tempting t o jump t o conclusions about the reasons f o r these differences. Before doing so, however, we must look more closely a t female par t ic ipa t ion , s ince the f i gu re s given i n tab le 10.1 inevi tably conceal considerable in te rna l var iat ion.

There is, f o r example, considerable var ia t ion between one sec tor of higher education and another, a s table 10.2 shows. It describes female enrolment r a t e s in subdivisions of the t o t a l higher education system. Inevi tably, the categories vary from country t o country: but the t ab l e shows, f i r s t , t ha t un ive r s i t i e s tend t o have a smaller proportion of women students than some other sec tors of higher education, especial ly teacher t ra in ing ; and secondly, t ha t women a r e , or have been l i k e l y t o enrol a t a higher r a t e i n in t ra - mural, ful l - t ime courses than i n extra-mural courses. (This s ta te - ment is markedly t rue of the German Democratic Republic; it has a l so applied t o Hungary and Romania u n t i l very recent ly.) Women's lower enrolment in univers i t i es is pa r t l y explained by sharp d i f fe r - ences i n subject preferences between t he two sexes, which we discuss below: but it is c l ea r t h a t , a t l e a s t i n the market economies, g i r l s a l so have somewhat lower ambitions than boys a t the point of choice of higher education i n s t i t u t i on . This can be i l l u s t r a t e d by the t r ans i t i on r a t e s with Ritzen (1977) reports. According t o the most recent f igures f o r the Netherlands, almost 100 per cent of bo s graduating from the pvmnasium ( se l ec t i ve academic secondary schooly en te r universi ty , compared with roughly 80 per cent and 90 per cent of g i r l s from i ts two streams. The remainder of the g i r l s choose t o attend higher vocational education (which includes teacher t ra in ing i n s t i t u t i ons ) . From the two streams of HBS (a more vocational secondary school, but with pre-university curr icula - now superseded) t r ans i t i on r a t e s t o universi ty i n 1971 were: boys, 60 per cent and 80 per cent; g i r l s , 30 per cent and 60 per cent. G i r l s have u n t i l recent ly had higher t r ans i t i on r a t e s from such "pre-university" schools t o higher vocational education; however, g i r l s have been l e s s inclined than boys t o t r ans f e r t o t h i s sec tor of higher education from vocational secondary schools. Par t of the problem, therefore, appears t o be t h a t g i r l s with equivalent qua l i f ica t ions have lower asp i ra t ions and a r e e i t he r l e s s wi l l ing o r l e s s ab le t o enter higher education a t any leve l . It should be added, however, tha t g i r l s ' t r ans i t i on r a t e s , l i k e boyst , have been r i s i n g s t ead i l y f o r many years. Boys from se l ec t i ve secondary schools now seem to be close t o the na tura l limit of almost universal t r ans f e r t o higher education; g i r l s ' t r ans f e r r a t e s a r e expected by Dutch planners t o continue t o r i s e .

Table 10.2

--

FRO I 97506

Hungary I 974

Netherlands 1974

Poland 1974/75

Romania 1974/75

Sweden

PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS WHO ARE FD4ALE, BY SECTOR OF HIGHER EDUCATION

UNESCO: 1974/75 TOTAL 3RD LEVEL

Colleges Universities/ Teacher of A r t s , Technical Comprehensive Tech. Univs Colleges Music etc. College8 Academies

Universities

Universities (New admissions 1976) 25 (31)

23 31 Colleges (inc. Teacher Training)

Intra-mural Extra-mural

1 72 48

53 1

Higher vocational education (inc. teacher training)

37

facul t ies range from 42% (law Teacher Economics Nne Arte and administration) training Medicnl High High t o 74% (a r t s ) acads.niee acaciemies S c M s School8

71 64 65 49

Full-time intra-mural 47

Evening Correspondence 24 45

Rural Science Academies Polytechnic

44 24

I n Sweden, t r ans f e r r a t e s d i r ec t from school a r e higher f o r g i r l s than f o r boys, owing t o the intervent ion of nat ional service f o r males; but t r ans i t i on r a t e s within t he f i r s t four years a f t e r leaving school a r e subs tan t ia l ly higher f o r males: the four-year r a t e f o r boys from the nasium was roughly 90 per cent f o r those leaving school i n 1969,- with roughly 70 per cent f o r g i r l s . Unlike the Netherlands, where g i r l s f t r ans f e r r a t e s a r e s t i l l r i s i n g , the recent decline i n t ransfer r a t e s i n Sweden seems t o have applied t o both sexes. It appears t ha t the near-equality of the sexes i n present-day Swedish higher education ( see fab le 10.1) r e s u l t s not from equal asp i ra t ions among school-leavers, but from a l a rge r enrolment of women a t a l a t e r s tage i n t h e i r l i ve s .

Several d i f fe ren t f ac to r s must combine t o cause the in te rna l differences i n female par t ic ipa t ion found i n tab le 10.2. F i r s t , data on t r ans i t i on r a t e s from the Netherlands and Sweden s trongly suggest a pa t t e rn of lower asp i ra t ions by female school-leavers, even among those with the highest secondary school qual i f icat ions. Whether such differences i n asp i ra t ion a r e s t i l l present among g i r l s i n t he cen t ra l ly planned economies - a s they undoubtedly were 20 years ago - is not e n t i r e l y c l ea r from the data ava i lab le t o us. Since i n these countries women's par t ic ipa t ion is roughly equal t o men's i n higher education a s a whole, and indeed is higher than men's i n several countries on intra-mural courses (which have the highest recruitment of school-leavers), we suspect t h a t the problem of lower asp i ra t ions does not ex i s t t o the same extent. But it is c l ea r from the f igures already given t h a t women's enrolment is always higher i n colleges o r i n courses providing t ra in ing f o r teaching, than it is on the more academic courses i n un ivers i t i es . This f o m s pa r t of a pa t t e rn of se l f - se lec t ion by the sexes in to d i f f e r en t f i e l d s of study, and it is t o t h i s pa t te rn t ha t we now turn.

Table 10.3: Percentage of s tudents i n th i rd l eve l education who a r e female by dlsclpl ine: l a t e s t year ava i lab le

-

( ~ e a r ) Educa- Medical Humani- Social Natural Engin- t i on subjects t i e s science science eer ing

Germany Fed. Rep. (1971) 60 26 47

Germany Dem. Rep. (1973) 78 7 2 52

Hungary (1973) 81 56 6 9

Nether- lands (1971) 46 2 2 4 2

Poland (1973) 66 7 7 7 2

Romania (1973) 56 6 6 7 3

Sweden (1973) 77 5 9 61

Source: Computed from UNESCO (1975) :

26 1 5

6 5 6 4

50 56

40 24

table 5.2.

Table 10.3 gives, from f igures reported t o UNESCO, the pro- port ion of women i n most of the major subject groupings of t h i rd - l eve l education. There a r e in te res t ing s i m i l a r i t i e s , and a l so differences, between the various countries. On the one hand, education r e c r u i t s the highest proportion of women i n f i v e out of the seven countr ies; the humanities, too, always have a higher proportion of women than does the higher education system a s a whole. And engineering subjects consis tent ly have a low propor- t i o n of women - s t r i k ing ly low i n the three market economies. Research suggests t ha t a combination of influences is a t work here. It has been t r ad i t i ona l i n most soc i e t i e s f o r g i r l s of secondary school age t o tend t o concentrate on the a r t s and l i t e r a t u r e , while boys of the same age spec ie l i se more of ten i n mathematics and the quant i ta t ive discipl ines . It is possible t o see the influence of such pa t te rns in these f i gu re s fo r higher education, a t l e a s t a s f a r a s r e l a t i v e preferences f o r the humanities and engineering subjec ts a r e concerned. But the pos i t ion of the na tura l sciences i n tab le 10.2 warns us t ha t ear ly subject preferences cannot be a complete explanation. For i n three of the cen t ra l ly planned economies (Hungary, Poland and Romania) the proportion of women i n the na tura l science f a c u l t i e s is higher than t h e i r proportion i n higher education a s a whole - and i n the case of Poland and Romania, there a r e , r e l a t i ve ly , about a s many women students i n sciences as there a r e in education. An a l t e rna t i ve explanation is suggested by the f a c t t h a t the l a r g e s t differences a r e , i n most countr ies , between engineering and education. These a r e both vocat ional ly spec i f i c subjects . The teaching profession has t r ad i t i ona l l y been pa r t i cu l a r l y favoured by and welcoming t o women, whereas careers i n engineering have, i n the market economies a t l e a s t , been regarded as almost ludicrously unsuitable. The l a t t e r is perhaps a stereo- typed view. In modern industry there a r e surely many careers i n technology which a r e no more physically demanding than a whole range of while-collar jobs; and indeed the number of women enro l l ing i n these subjec ts a t un ivers i t i es and co l l e e s is slowly increasing i n most countries. But Pestisanu, e t a 1 kg771 points out t h a t there a r e s t i l l jobs i n t h i s area which women may plausibly avoid because of t h e i r physical demands, such a s mining, metallurgy, geology and petroleum exploration. Education, on the other hand, i s probably a t t r a c t i v e t o women, not because of i t s l i g h t physical demands (which can be qu i te severe i n prac t ice) but because of i ts soc i a l organisation. One of its obvious conveniences is t h a t teachers can be reasonably confident of a r r i v ing home a t the same time a s t h e i r children. School teaching requires c o m p ~ a t i v e l y few hours t o be spent a t the place of work, and i t can f a i r l y ea s i l y be organised t o allow f o r part-time employment. It i s also a pro- fess ion i n which it i s possible to re-enter employment a f t e r a period of absence. A l l of these fea tures have advantages f o r the conventional family arrangement i n which the mother takes the major respons ib i l i ty f o r the ear ly years of chi ld rear ing. Indeed, some market economies have tended t o regard married women as a kind of reserve army of po ten t ia l school teachers , t o be ca l led on tempor- a r i l y i n case of a shortage of supply. Final ly , f o r some women school teaching, especial ly i n primary schools where the percentage of women teachers i s highest , i s soc ia l ly and psychologically a t t r a c t i v e , since it can be defined a s an extension of the family ro l e of motherhood. In soc i e t i e s where women's par t ic ipa t ion i n employment has been seen as soc i a l l y ambiguous o r even undesirable, school teaching, l i k e nursing, seems t o be one of the more gener- a l l y acceptable jobs f o r women.

The cases of the na tura l sciences and medicine a r e more com- pl icated. The f igures of t ab l e 10.3 still conceal a g rea t deal of in te rna l va r i a t i on ( f o r example "medical subjectstt probably include nursing i n some but not a l l countr ies) . But it appears t ha t the cen t ra l ly planned economies enrol f a r higher percentages of women in to courses i n both of these areas than do the market economies - with the exception of Sweden, where the percentage of women i n medicine is a l so high. This difference probably accounts f o r much of the higher representat ion of women i n higher education a s a whole i n these countries. A s I v h (1977) points ouf;, when women a r e concentrated i n a few areas and excluded (by t h e l r own choice o r otherwise) from the f u l l range of subjects , the e f f e c t is t o make competition f o r admiasions t o higher education more severe f o r women than f o r men. This may be one reason why t h e i r enrolment is lower i n the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands.

It is not easy to discover the reasons which l i e behind the increased par t ic ipa t ion of women i n the cen t r a l l y planned economies - or the r e l a t i v e l y low r a t e s i n the market economies. Among other fac tors , it may be impartant tha t concern in the cen t r a l l y planned economies has extended beyond enrol l ing women in higher education t o ensuring t h e i r pa r t i c ipa t i on i n grea te r roportions i n the labour force. Figures provided by Sachse 71977) f o r the German Democratic Republic demonstrate the e f f e c t s on employment: the proportion of universi ty graduates employed i n the labour force who a r e women has r i s e n from 24 per cent in 1961 t o 30 per cent i n 1974, while the proportion among college graduates has r i s en over the same period from 32 per cent t o 43 per cent. (Even so, women a r e a much smaller proportion of employed graduates than they a r e of the t o t a l labour force , of which 47 per cent were women i n 1965.) Similarly i n Romania, the proportion of a l l employed gradua tee who a r e women has r i s e n from 30 per cent i n 1958 t o 35 per cent i n 1968.

From a manpower planning point of view, it is obviously economically wasteful t o encourage women to enrol i n higher educa- t i o n i f they a re then unavailable f o r employment. I n Sweden, the two sexes have now reached near equal i ty in t h e i r r a t e s of taking up paid employment a f t e r graduation, having converged from a pos i t ion of subs tan t ia l difference even in the l a t e 1960s. I n the Netherlands, too, there a r e no appreciable differences between the employment r a t e s of unmarried women graduates and male graduates, but married women have lower employment r a t e s , and women with chi ldren lower s t i l l . This may not be e n t i r e l y due t o voluntary withdrawal from employment: it seems tha t i n the market economies married women, especial ly with children, a r e a t a considerable disadvantage i n competing f o r scarce jobs i n a crowded labour market, Ritzen (1977). Thus higher education may reasonably seem an uncertain economic investment f o r women who intend t o have a family. I n cen t ra l ly planned economies with the supply of and demand f o r qual i f ied personnel be t t e r balanced, women need not be discouraged from enter ing higher education by doubts about t h e i r long-term employability; and t h i s may provide them with an extra incentive t o enrol. But i t is c lear , in addi t ion, t ha t the cen t r a l l y planned economies have placed considerable s t r e s s on increasing the par t ic ipa t ion of women, a s p a r t of a general emphasis on increasing soc ia l equa l i ty and the democratisation of access t o higher education. Although t h e i r attempts in thdd d i r ec t i on have apparently not included spec i f ic quotas o r any manipulation of entrance requiremants, they have demonstrated a higher degree of concern than most market economies, which have so f a r been content

with e l iminat ing overt d iscr iminat ion aga ins t women i n t h e education systems. One f a c t o r t h a t is c e r t a i n l y important i s t h a t higher proportions of women a s a whole, qua l i f i ed and unqual i f ied, a r e employed i n the c e n t r a l l y planned economies, which provide g r e a t e r s o c i a l and p r a c t i c a l support t o working women, including the mothers of young children. Women graduates no longer need t o claim spec ia l considerat ion a s the possessors of scarce t a l e n t s . I n the market economies, g r e a t e r s o c i a l support a t l e a s t seems t o be forthcoming i n recen t years ; and t h i s may underl ie the steady increases i n higher education enrolments by young women.

It is , of course, always e a s i e r t o encourage new graups of e n t r a n t s when the demand f o r highly qua l i f i ed manpower is high. In the era of over-supply which the market economies have now entered, it may be p o l i t i c a l l y d i f f i c u l t t o provide ex t ra incent ives f o r women. But i t i s c l e a r t h a t i n the market economies sex d i f fe rences s t i l l conceal a t l e a s t a s l a r g e a rese rvo i r of t a l e n t a s do s o c i a l c l a s s dif ferences . The d i f fe rence between the two is t h a t , t o judge by the p e r s i s t e n t growth i n female enrolment r a t e s i n these countr ies , women a r e l i k e l y t o exer t continual pressure on higher education and the labour market f o r some time t o come.

CHAPTER 11

An appraisal of the current s i t ua t i on

I n t h i s study we have considered the approaches of a number of cen t ra l ly planned and market economies i n Europe t o the problem of r e l a t i ng the provision of higher education t o the economic and soc i a l needs of the nation. Broadly speaking, we have found t h a t i n the planned economies - a t l e a s t a s represented by the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania - the basic c r i - t e r i on determining the s i z e and s t ruc ture of higher education is the expected needs of the economy f o r spec i f i c categories of qual i f ied manpower. However, t h i s manpower planning c r i t e r i o n is tempered t o some extent by the two a l t e rna t i ve aims of encouraging an or ien ta t ion towards soc i a l equal i ty in the provision of higher education and of allowing a measure of individual choice. Examples of the former a r e the spec ia l encouragement given i n some countries t o young people from workers' homes and from r u r a l areas who apply f o r en t ry t o higher education. Individual freedom of choice is usual ly permitted within the constraints of manpower plans. Thus the number of places i n most universi ty f acu l t i e s is determined by forecas t manpower needs whereas the admission of any pa r t i cu l a r student is determined by the preference of the s tudents , of ten a f t e r consul tat ion with counsellors, and competitive entrance exami- nat ions, modified somewhat by the equal i ty considerations mentioned above.

In those economies t h a t place grea te r re l iance on the operation of the market f o r the a l loca t ion of economic resources, represented i n t h i s study by the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, the s t a r t i n g point i n planning the fu ture s i z e and s t ruc ture of higher education is the expected demand f o r places by individual school-leavers and, increasingly, other adu l t s who missed the opportunity of higher education when they were younger or who wish t o upgrade t h e i r qual i f icat ions. This basic c r i t e r i on , however, of planning on the basis of soc ia l demand is a l so somewhat modified i n prac t ice , t o take account of manpower needs i n par- t i c u l a r areas - of which medical doctors and school teachers a r e the most common examples. Although the establishment of g rea te r soc ia l equal i ty was one of the underlying forces fue l l i ng the rapid expan- s ion of higher education i n these countries during the 1960s, there have been few spec i f ic policy measures t o promote such equal i ty with the exception i n some countries of d i f f e r en t i a l f inanc ia l grants which favour students from poorer famil ies . I t should be pointed out a l so tha t although the provision of higher education has been based on soc i a l demand it has not been provided f o r a l l individuals who sought it. In a l l countr ies there is a qualifying examination which sometimes takes on the nature of a competitive entrance exami- nation.

Thus, although the approach t o planning higher education provision has two very d i f f e r en t s t a r t i n g points i n the planned and the market economies of Europe, in prac t ice the gap between the two groups is not nearly so wide. I n both, moreover, the outcome of these d i f f e r en t approaches was a very rapid growth of enrolment during the 1960s succeeded apparently by r a the r slower growth from the ear ly 1970s onwards.

Recent developments suggest t ha t there may be even more con- vergence between the two groups of countries. On the one hand, many countr ies i n Western Europe a r e beginning t o be troubled by the emergence of s i gn i f i c an t amounts of unemployment amongst qual i f ied workers for the f irst time s ince the 1930s; on the o ther , there a r e some s igns t ha t f o r the first time s ince the Second World War the demand f o r higher education by individuals i n the planned economies may be growing more rapidly than the number of places needed t o meet forecas t manpower needs. Although these d i f f i c u l t i e s have not ye t reached ser ious dimensiom i n e i t h e r group of countr ies , the underlying problem of the gap between what individual s tudents would l i k e and what is soc i a l l y and economically possible is reaching the s tage on both s ides where a reappraisal of ex is t ing prac t ices seems jus t i f ied .

It is tempting t o seek t o evaluate the two contrast ing approaches t o planning higher education provision by comparing forecas t s made i n the various countries some years ago with the ac tua l outcome i n terms of enrolments and employment pa t te rns some years l a t e r .

A s we have seen i n Chapter 3, many of the c r i t i c s of manpower planning claim tha t the long-term forecas t s necessary f o r educational planning a r e impossible t o make i n a dynamic economy. Such c r i t i c s back t h e i r claims with examples which show how the ac tua l employment of qua l i f ied manpower has d i f fe red from tha t forecast . (See, f o r example, Ahamad and Blaug, 1973). I n the present study, we do not have the s t a t i s t i c a l information t o permit such an approach which is not l i k e l y t o be very conclusive in any case. If the aim of a fore- c a s t is t o provide r i g id guidel ines f o r the education and manpower

forecas t is l i k e l y t o prove t o be correct , s ince decisions :I?Ee:e%ken to ensure t h a t it is f u l f i l l e d . I f , on the other hand, manpower forecas t s a r e made but e s sen t i a l decisions about enrol- ments a r e based on t he soc i a l demand f o r places it w i l l be qu i te exceptional f o r the outcome to match the forecasts . Certainly, i f economies behaved i n accordance with the r i g id version of the man- power hypothesis which excludes the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of subs t i tu t ion , any surplus graduates in any area would be unemployed, while short- ages of manpower could remain i n other areas. However, most p r ac t i t i one r s argue t h a t some subs t i t u t i on can occur, pa r t i cu l a r l y i n the medium and long term. A more meaningful question i s t o ask how much economic and soc i a l waste is incurred i n not meeting planned t a rge t s , a s compared with what would have occurred i f the manpower s t ruc tu re of the plan had been met; but t h i s is the kind of question t o which an empirical answer is almost impossible.

The most r e a l i s t i c t e s t is whether manpower forecas t s r e s u l t i n be t t e r decisions about t he provision of higher education than would a l t e rna t i ve c r i t e r i a . The main a l t e rna t i ve c r i t e r i o n is soc i a l ( o r individual) demand f o r places. I n the market economies ne i ther soc i a l demand nor manpower forecas t s have performed a t a l l well a s a bas i s f o r predict ing fu ture developments t ha t determine the provision of higher education (see, f o r example, Ahamad and Blaug, 1973; Layard, King and Moser, 1969; and OECD, 1971). This suggests t ha t i n such economies ne i ther the act ions of employers nor those of students a r e easy t o pred ic t . I n planned economies, on the other hand,there i s qu i te na tura l ly a much closer correspond- ence between planning t a rge t s , however formulated, and ac tua l out- comes. But t h i s is inherent i n the systems of planning and control , and not i n the techniques of project ions and forecasting.

What does emerge from t h i s study is t h a t any country which wishes t o use manpower forecas t s a s the main bas i s f o r planning higher education needs t o devote considerable resources t o the a c t i v i t y both i n formulating the plan and i n implementing it. Manpower planning requires subs tan t ia l a c t i v i t i e s i n the cen t ra l planning agencies, in the un ivers i t i es and other i n s t i t u t i ons of higher education and i n the main employing enterprises .

The f i n a l question t h a t may be asked is whether manpower planning is l i k e l y t o prove more successful i n planned economies than i n market economies. The answer t o t ha t question i s obviously yes. Presumably any type of planning is l i k e l y t o be more successful i n economies where the main resource a l l oca t i on decisions a r e taken according t o planned soc i a l p r i o r i t i e s than i n economies where the main decisions a r e taken a s the r e s u l t of market t ransact ions.

What is needed i n both types of economy is a model of the higher education system, and the in te rac t ions between it and the r e s t of soc ie ty , which enable the outcomes of a va r i e ty of d i f f e r en t poliicies t o be tested. The difference between the countr ies examined i n t h i s report is not so much whether higher education developments a r e based on manpower considerations or not, a s whether they a r e planned a t a l l o r not. I n the 1970s we a r e discovering t h a t unplanned expansion can lead t o a l l s o r t s of soc i a l and economic imbalances; while too r i g id planning can r e s u l t i n excessive l im i t a t i on on individual choice. However, much of the soc i a l and economic values underlying the use of these techniques continue to d i f f e r , there a r e increasing pressures leading t o a convergence of the technical aspects of a l t e rna t i ve planning approaches.

References I - The country case studies

G. Bergendal: Hi her Education and Manpower Planning in Sweden (~eneva/Bucharestr ILO/CEPES, 1977).

K. Hiifner, H. Kohler and J. Naumann: Higher Education and Manpower Planning in the Federal Republic of Germany (Geneva/Bucharest, ILO/CEPES, 1977).

A. P. IV&: Higher Education and Manpower Planning in Hungary (Geneva/~ucharest, ILO/CEPES, 1977).

J. ~luczyfiski and A. ~hzefowicz: Hi her Education and Man ower Planning in Poland (Geneva/Buchare-- , 1977). C. Pestisanu, D.F. Lazaroiu and P. Burloiu: L'ensei nement Superieur et la Planification de la Main-dlOeuvre d z s la ~Qpublic Socialiste de Roumanie (Geneva/Bucharest, ILO/CEPNS, 1977).

J.M.M. Ritzen: Higher Education and Manpower Planning in the Netherlands end E. Sachse: Higher Education and Manpower Planning in the German Democratic Republic (Geneva/Bucharest, ILO/CEPXS, 1977).

References I1 - Other studies

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