Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018

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Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018. Deborah A. Santiago, PhD Excelencia in Education May 20, 2008. EASFAA Portland, Maine. What to look for?. -Shifting paradigm for higher education -higher education resistant to change Will you be resistant to change?. Sources. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018

  • Higher Educations Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018

    EASFAAPortland, MaineDeborah A. Santiago, PhDExcelencia in EducationMay 20, 2008

  • What to look for? -Shifting paradigm for higher education-higher education resistant to change

    Will you be resistant to change?

  • Sources-National Center for Education Statistics-Spellings Commission-The Futures Project-Madame Deborah

  • What does the future of higher education look like?

  • More diverse enrollmentSource: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

    Chart1

    65.735219253360.8960270743

    12.663727465913.9670623855

    10.762046330213.3514107727

    6.48683029767.3523461201

    1.00817047691.1554970019

    3.3440061763.2776566454

    2005

    2016

    Total

    National Center for Education Statistics

    [In thousands]

    TotalSexAttendance statusControl

    MenWomenFull-timePart-timePublicPrivate

    Actual

    1991 14,3596,5027,8578,1156,24411,3103,049

    1992 14,4866,5247,9638,1616,32511,3853,102

    1993 14,3056,4277,8778,1286,17711,1893,116

    1994 14,2796,3727,9078,1386,14111,1343,145

    1995 14,2626,3437,9198,1296,13311,0923,169

    1996 14,3686,3538,0158,3036,06511,1213,247

    1997 14,5026,3968,1068,4386,06411,1963,306

    1998 14,5076,3698,1388,5635,94411,1383,369

    1999 14,7916,4918,3018,7866,00511,3093,482

    2000 15,3126,7228,5919,0106,30311,7533,560

    2001 15,9286,9618,9679,4486,48012,2333,695

    2002 16,6127,2029,4109,9466,66512,7523,860

    2003 16,9007,2569,64510,3126,58912,8574,043

    2004 17,2727,3879,88510,6106,66212,9804,292

    2005 17,4877,45610,03210,7976,69013,0224,466

    Middle alternative projections

    2006 17,6727,47010,20210,9826,68913,2524,420

    2007 17,9587,57410,38511,2336,72513,4574,501

    2008 18,2647,68510,57911,4976,76813,6774,587

    2009 18,5677,79310,77411,7576,81013,8954,672

    2010 18,8397,88410,95511,9956,84414,0854,754

    2011 19,1057,96711,13912,2226,88314,2694,836

    2012 19,3748,03511,33912,4426,93214,4534,921

    2013 19,6628,09611,56612,6726,98914,6515,010

    2014 19,9448,14911,79612,9037,04114,8465,098

    2015 20,1928,18312,00913,1137,07915,0155,177

    2016 20,4428,22212,22013,3257,11715,1865,256

    Low alternative projections

    2006 17,6217,46010,16110,9406,68113,2164,405

    2007 17,8497,54810,30111,1406,70913,3804,469

    2008 18,1107,64610,46411,3646,74613,5694,541

    2009 18,3717,74310,62811,5876,78413,7574,614

    2010 18,5897,82110,76811,7786,81213,9104,679

    2011 18,8037,89110,91211,9576,84614,0574,745

    2012 19,0367,95111,08512,1456,89114,2174,819

    2013 19,2928,00411,28812,3476,94514,3934,899

    2014 19,5588,05311,50512,5626,99614,5764,982

    2015 19,7868,08311,70312,7547,03214,7325,055

    2016 20,0128,11711,89512,9437,06914,8865,126

    High alternative projections

    2006 17,7047,47710,22611,0086,69613,2754,429

    2007 18,0657,60010,46511,3246,74113,5324,533

    2008 18,4207,72410,69611,6316,78913,7874,633

    2009 18,7677,84410,92411,9316,83714,0364,732

    2010 19,0877,94711,14012,2126,87514,2594,828

    2011 19,3998,04011,35812,4796,91914,4754,924

    2012 19,7118,12011,59112,7396,97214,6895,022

    2013 20,0298,18711,84212,9977,03214,9085,121

    2014 20,3178,23912,07813,2347,08415,1065,211

    2015 20,5738,27512,29913,4527,12115,2805,293

    2016 20,8508,31912,53113,6887,16215,4705,380

    SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Fall Enrollment Survey (IPEDS-EF:9199), and Spring 2001 through Spring 2006; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions

    RacEthnicity

    National Center for Education Statistics

    [In thousands]

    TotalRace/ethnicity

    WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/Pacific IslanderAmerican Indian/Alaska NativeNonresident alienWhiteBlackHispanicAsian /Pacific IslanderAmerican Indian/Alaska Native

    Actual199110,9901,335867637114416

    1991 14,36010,9901,335867637114416199210,8761,393955697119448

    1992 14,48810,8761,393955697119448199310,6011,413989725122457

    1993 14,30610,6011,413989725122457199410,4281,4491,046774127456

    1994 14,28010,4281,4491,046774127456199510,3131,4741,094797131454

    1995 14,26410,3131,4741,094797131454199610,2651,5061,166828138466

    1996 14,36910,2651,5061,166828138466199710,2671,5511,219859142465

    1997 14,50410,2671,5511,219859142465199810,1801,5831,257901144444

    1998 14,50910,1801,5831,257901144444199910,2831,6431,319913145488

    1999 14,79210,2831,6431,319913145488200010,4631,7301,462978151529

    2000 15,31310,4631,7301,462978151529200110,7751,8501,5611,019158565

    2001 15,92910,7751,8501,5611,019158565200211,1411,9791,6621,074166591

    2002 16,61311,1411,9791,6621,074166591200311,2762,0691,7161,076173592

    2003 16,90211,2762,0691,7161,076173592200411,4232,1651,8101,109176590

    2004 17,27311,4232,1651,8101,109176590200511,4962,2151,8821,134176585

    2005 17,48911,4962,2151,8821,134176585

    661311613200611,5722,2351,9441,138194589

    Projected200711,6932,2912,0111,170197595

    2006 17,67211,5722,2351,9441,138194589200811,8272,3512,0801,204201602

    2007 17,95811,6932,2912,0111,170197595200911,9502,4142,1541,238204608

    2008 18,26411,8272,3512,0801,204201602201012,0462,4722,2271,271208615

    2009 18,56711,9502,4142,1541,238204608201112,1322,5312,3011,307212623

    2010 18,83912,0462,4722,2271,271208615201212,2072,5952,3781,346217632

    2011 19,10512,1322,5312,3011,307212623201312,2832,6672,4651,385221641

    2012 19,37412,2072,5952,3781,346217632201412,3542,7342,5541,425226651

    2013 19,66212,2832,6672,4651,385221641201512,4002,7942,6411,464231660

    2014 19,94412,3542,7342,5541,425226651201612,4482,8552,7291,503236670

    2015 20,19212,4002,7942,6411,464231660

    2016 20,44212,4482,8552,7291,503236670

    611413713100.0

    8.328.945.032.534.014.6

    SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Fall Enrollment Survey (IPEDS-EF:9199), and Spring 2001 through Spring 2006; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions

    RacEthnicity

    Black

    Hispanic

    Asian /Pacific Islander

    American Indian/Alaska Native

    Nonresident alien1

    Tot-Age

    White

    Pub4-yr

    2005

    2016

    Pub2-yr

    National Center for Education StatisticsNational Center for Education Statistics

    [In thousands][In thousands]

    Sex, age, and attendance statusActualSex, age, and attendance statusActualProjected (middle alternative)

    19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016

    14,35914,48614,30514,27914,26214,36814,50214,50714,79115,31215,92816,61216,90017,27217,48717,67217,95818,26418,56718,83919,10519,37419,66219,94420,19220,442

    14 to 17 years old 12518612713814823117111914314513320215014 to 17 years old 200199172178178177177176177179180184190

    18 and 19 years old .2,8642,7842,8402,7872,8943,0383,0613,3823,4143,5313,5953,5713,47518 and 19 years old .3,5783,6103,7103,8123,9324,0204,0183,9963,9803,9783,9964,0004,010

    20 and 21 years old ..2,9202,8832,6742,7242,7052,6592,8752,8112,9893,0453,4083,3663,46920 and 21 years old ..3,6513,7783,8553,9043,9684,0694,2034,2944,3004,2944,2854,2864,299

    22 to 24 years old 2,3062,5272,5702,4822,4112,3242,4752,3772,4352,6172,7602,9323,48022 to 24 years old 3,0363,0723,0603,1093,1603,2113,2773,3643,4953,6063,6753,7053,715

    25 to 29 years old .2,0721,9852,0021,9852,1202,1281,9991,9911,8701,9602,0142,1022,10525 to 29 years old .2,3862,3842,4522,5332,5992,6502,6882,7292,7852,8612,9573,0653,168

    30 to 34 years old ..1,4151,4561,3451,4141,2361,1961,1091,1951,1451,2651,2901,3001,36830 to 34 years old ..1,3291,3541,3311,3371,3601,3971,4431,5011,5571,6131,6621,7021,741

    35 years old and over .2,6562,6652,7472,7502,7472,7912,8142,6322,7962,7492,7273,1392,85235 years old and over .3,0923,0903,0923,0863,0673,0433,0343,0463,0793,1313,1903,2503,319

    6,5026,5246,4276,3726,3436,3536,3966,3696,4916,7226,9617,2027,2567,3877,4567,4707,5747,6857,7937,8847,9678,0358,0968,1498,1838,222

    14 to 17 years old .5089546261925645726354826014 to 17 years old .78788083838281808080798082

    18 and 19 years old .1,2991,3051,2881,3021,3381,3541,4141,5351,5411,5831,6291,6161,55618 and 19 years old .1,5511,5921,6261,6681,7171,7501,7421,7271,7141,7041,7021,6931,687

    20 and 21 years old .1,3871,3421,2841,2641,2821,2281,3741,3741,3921,3821,5911,5621,49020 and 21 years old .1,7431,7781,7921,8081,8331,8751,9311,9661,9591,9471,9331,9231,919

    22 to 24 years old 1,2321,2721,3441,2381,1531,1771,2001,1271,0901,2931,3121,3421,60422 to 24 years old 1,3801,3551,3301,3471,3611,3761,3971,4281,4751,5091,5251,5241,516

    25 to 29 years old 1,04995590393696299197290887486290589092925 to 29 years old 1,0459789891,0181,0431,0591,0711,0821,0961,1151,1401,1701,198

    30 to 34 years old 61462758460156147744346351752751054759230 to 34 years old 518545530532540553569589608626640650660

    35 years old and over 8709339709699861,0339389171,0051,0129611,1641,02535 years old and over 1,0731,1301,1221,1181,1101,0991,0931,0951,1031,1161,1301,1431,161

    7,8577,9637,8777,9077,9198,0158,1068,1388,3018,5918,9679,4109,6459,88510,03210,20210,38510,57910,77410,95511,13911,33911,56611,79612,00912,220

    14 to 17 years old .7697737587139115747282791219114 to 17 years old .1221219195969696969799100104108

    18 and 19 years old .1,5651,4791,5521,4851,5571,6841,6471,8471,8741,9481,9661,9551,91918 and 19 years old .2,0272,0182,0842,1442,2152,2702,2762