Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018

EASFAAPortland, Maine

Deborah A. Santiago, PhD

Excelencia in Education

May 20, 2008

What to look for?

-Shifting paradigm for higher education

-higher education resistant to change

Will you be resistant to change?

Sources

-National Center for Education Statistics-Spellings Commission-The Futures Project-”Madame Deborah”

What does the future of higher education look like?

More diverse enrollment

66

13 116

1 3

61

14 137

1 3

White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander

AmericanIndian/

Alaska Native

Nonresidentalien

2005 2016

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

11

50

72

42

3429

8

29

45

32 34

15

White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacif ic Islander

American Indian/Alaska Native

Nonresidentalien

1995-2005 2006-2016

Enrollment of Hispanics will continue to grow faster

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Enrollment of older students will grow faster than traditional

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

30.4

11.713.2

19.7

1995-2005 2006-2016

18 to 24 25 and over

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Men Women

Women continue to outpace men in undergraduate enrollment

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

More students going full-time

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

63 66

37 34

2005 2016

Full-time Part-time

Growth of private institutions will continue to outpace public institutions

18.113.9

40.3

17.5

% growth: 1995-2005 % growth: 2006-2016

Public Private

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016

Continuation of growing reliance on loans to pay for college

50

33

25

1995 2004 2016

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): 2003-04 Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis

Percentage of UG using loans to pay for college

Increasing: - costs - public scrutiny- capacity limitations - market competition

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): 2003-04 Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis

Other changes to higher education’s future

What does the future hold for higher education?

Policy issues

• Access

• Affordability

• Accountability

• Market structure vs. public good

TENSION in trying to balance disparate areas!!

What does the future hold for access to higher education?

• More diverse student body for outreach and service

• Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice

• Who takes responsibility for increasing access?

Market structure: for-profit institutions see potential of enrolling Latinos and African American students

What does the future hold for accountability in higher education?

• More demand by politicians for proof of public return on investment while investing less

• Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice

• How balance access and accountability?

Market structure: raise admission standards to increase graduation rates and penalize institutions with low success rates

What does the future hold for affordability in higher education?

• Increasing costs and competition

• Complexity of financial aid system

• How balance access, accountability, and affordability?

Market structure: cost containment and increased productivity

What Excelencia will do to address the future of higher

education

• Ignorance abatement on Latinos in higher education (Research)

• Compendium of promising practices (Action)

• Demonstration projects to show how institutions can serve (Action)

What will YOU do to address the future of higher education?

www.EdExcelencia.org

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