No. 35, Vol. 62 30 August 2019

Highlights of this Issue

M India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh are forecastto increase combined imports of oils & fats by 1.3 Mn T in2019/20.

M Chinese imports of 17 oils & fats to rise steeply by2.3 Mn T to 11.6 Mn T in 2018/19. Further increase to 12.5 Mn Tanticipated next season.

M Bangladesh is seen boosting veg. oil imports to arecord 2.7 Mn T in 2018/19, up from 1.2 Mn T ten years ago.Uptrend mainly in soya oil this season.

M Canadian canola crop estimate of 18.45 Mn Tconsidered too low. Oilseed crushings in Canada boosted torecord level in 2018/19.

M Palm oil exports from Colombia, Ecuador,Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica expected to decline onthe year in April/Sept 2019.

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OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Summary August 30, 2019

ALL ITEMS AT A GLANCE

INDIA, CHINA, BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN: Theoutlook for 2019/20 points to a further growth in importsof vegetable oils and animal fats in the four countriesanalysed.

India will require imports of around 15.8 Mn T, mostof which covered by palm oil, soya oil and sun oil. Weexpect a growth in domestic consumption by 0.5 Mn T.

China is likely to boost imports of oils & fats to 12.5Mn T next season, with biggest increases in palm oil,soya oil and sun oil. Some increase is also expected inpalmkernel oil, butter, castor oil and tallow. The growthin Chinese domestic consumption is expected to slow tojust 0.1-0.2 Mn T.

In Pakistan we expect imports of oils & fats to vir-tually stagnate or to rise only slightly from 3.42 Mn T ayear earlier. Our assumption is that domestic productionwill rise on account of larger imports and crushings ofsoybeans and canola.

In Bangladesh we expect a further growth in importsof oils & fats by approximately 100 Thd T to 2.74 Mn Tin Oct/Sept 2019/20. (432)

Biofuel: In July Brazilian biodiesel production was inline with expectations and we forecast biodiesel outputin August close to the July figure. But with an increasein the biodiesel admixture mandate as of Sept 1 monthlybiodiesel production is likely to increase. (434)

Palmkernel expellers: EU consumption declined pro-nouncedly in Apr/June and is expected to stay low alsothis quarter compared to the record usage in Oct/March2018/19. (434)

Czech Republic: Rapeseed exports continued to risesizably on the year in Apr/June and almost doubled inthe full season. Also, crushings reached a record volumein July/June 2018/19, resulting in large shipments ofrape oil and meal. (SU 19-18)

Germany: Total consumption of rapeseed oil and ofall vegetable oils was on an uptrend in Jan/June 2019,but biodiesel usage declined, viz. by 7%. Latest tradedata on SU 15-15/16. (435)

Greece: With domestic output decimated, exports ofolive oil plunged by 30% in Oct/June 2018/19, with thelargest setbacks occurring in shipments to Italy andSpain. (SU 19-17)

Russia & Ukraine: Frequent rainfall in August hassupported overall good to excellent sunflowerseed cropprospects in many parts of the two countries. Ukrainianrapeseed exports have progressed at a record pace inJuly and August. But sun oil shipments slowed downnoticeably in August as recent very high prices havehurt demand. (435)

Rep. of South Africa: Processing of sunseed plungedby 40% on the year in April/July 2019, fuelling a sharpincrease of sun oil imports. Soybean crushings, on thecontrary, increased by 23% since the start of the seasonin March. (436)

Canada: Oilseed production is forecast by StatsCanto decline to 25.4 Mn T in 2019, down 10% from 2018.Farmers reduced canola plantings to a 3-year low of8.5 Mn ha this year (down 8%). Oilseed crushingsreached a new high in Aug/July 2018/19, followingrecord canola and soybean processing for the month ofJuly. (436)

U.S.A.: Global demand for US soybeans is subduedand the country is likely to enter the new marketingyear with the lowest export sales in the books since atleast 2008. Beneficial rainfall in the second half ofAugust has improved conditions of corn and soybeansand led to increases in the share of the crops ratedgood or excellent. (437)

C. & S.America: Combined palm oil exports are nowexpected to fall short of a year earlier in April/Sept 2019in Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras andCosta Rica. There was a slight decline in total exportsof these countries from a year earlier in April/June incontrast to an increase in Oct/March. We expect thatthe downtrend will continue in July/Sept 2019. (SU 23-9/10 and 438)

Argentina: Exports of soya meal increased sizablyon the year in July. Shipments of soya oil were veryhigh in June and July and were boosted by 1.0 Mn T inthe first 7 months of 2019. Soybean exports to Chinajumped to 1.2 Mn T in July but are likely to decline inAugust. (SU 22-21/22)

Bolivia: Soybean exports will probably be boosted to0.5 Mn T in Sept/Aug 2019/20, primarily in the secondhalf of the season, if plantings of summer-crop soy-beans are increased in line with expectations and ifweather cooperates. (438)

Brazil: Soybean exports were reported at 1.3 Mn Tin the week to Aug 25, bringing the cumulation so farthis month to 4.0 Mn , down from 6.55 Mn T a year agoT. This contrasts with a boost in corn exports to 6.3 MnT. (SU 22-21/22 and 438)

China,P.R.: Imports of 12 oilmeals declined by 4%from a year earlier in July. This was contrary to theboost by roughly 50% registered in the imports of 17oils & fats. Imports of oilseeds increased by 5% from ayear earlier, mainly on account of soybeans (SU 24-21/22 and 438)

India: The government has this week introduced a5% safeguard duty on imports of refined palm oil fromMalaysia, thereby removing the preferential treatmentthat had caused booming Indian imports of RBD palmolein so far this year. (439)

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 431 Aug 30, 2019

PRICES

Diverging Trends

US market torn between weak demand and weather risks. South American soybean producers benefiting fromlarge sales to China and weak currencies.

The trade conflict with China has affected prices andreturns for US farmers throughout the 2018/19 market-ing year and the new season will also start undernegative conditions. The situation of soybean producersis aggravated by the unprecedented accumulation ofstocks. US soybean export sales for 2019/20 arecurrently at a 13-year low. Sales to China are lackingand it is also alarming for the US soybean market thatother countries were reserved buyers so far.

Poor US exports of soybeans and corn were accom-panied by the recent weakening of domestic demand,partly attributable to increased competition from Argen-tina on the world soya oil & meal markets (soybeans)and partly to decreasing ethanol production (corn).Besides the burden of Chinese import tariffs, US cornexports were additionally hurt by huge exports fromother countries in recent months. These developmentsexerted severe pressure on US corn and soybeanprices, a development many market participants hadnot expected in spring when flooding had severelyhampered plantings in the US. The pronounced USplanting problems were bullish taken per se but havebeen outweighed for the time being by global factors.

The uncertainty regarding the outlook for US agricul-tural commodities is compounded by the many vari-ables affecting US supply prospects. Concern aboutdryness developing in parts of the US Midwest in earlyAugust has given way to awareness that the develop-ment of crops has been additionally delayed by a lackof heat and sunshine recently. The latter hurts the yieldpotential and raises the risk that crops will not be fullymature when the first frosts occur. The market added apremium to futures prices on the CBOT this week toaccount for the elevated risk of crop damage shortlybefore harvesting.

With actual plantings of soybeans and corn stillbeing major unknowns, the market will have to copewith uncertainty about the size of US crops longer thanusual this year.

In South America farmers are benefiting from largeexports to China and weak currencies inflating theirreturns whereas crushers are struggling to obtainsupplies amidst the recent Chinese buying spree andpartly reserved farmer selling. Chinese importers seemdetermined to maximize the volumes from SouthAmerica and avoid fresh purchases of US soybeans aslong as possible.

Argentina is seen boosting soybean exports to about4 Mn T in July/Sept 2019 and total export registrationssince April are approaching 8 Mn T, the bulk of it toChina. However, we hear that farmers are currentlyrather reserved sellers, limiting the supplies for crush-ers and exporters. High inflation and the devaluation ofthe peso are prompting farmers to keep storing arelatively large part of their soybeans as a hedge.

The latest price development has set the stage forexpanding South American soybean plantings for the

2020 crop. In Brazil plantings will start in a few weeksif the required rainfall arrives in time to alleviate currentdryness. In Argentina it is generally expected that theprospective change of government may result in areintroduction of higher export taxes and quotas forgrains, possibly promoting some reshifting of acreagefrom grains to oilseeds.

The uptrend of palm oil prices has taken a pausethis week, following a steep increase in July and thefirst half of August. The price discount versus soya oilhas narrowed in recent weeks but is still above aver-age. Booming import demand from China, India andother countries and a slowdown of the productiongrowth probably resulted in a further reduction ofMalaysian palm oil stocks in August and a declinebelow the year-ago level for the first time in more thantwo years.

The adage ‘low prices are curing low prices’ is alsoverified in the lauric oil market. Palmkernel oil pricesappreciated further this week and have appreciated bymore than 20% from the lows seen in June. ParticularlyChina stepped up palmkernel oil imports so far thisyear, resulting in a reduction of stocks from burden-some levels in the exporting countries.

Rapeseed prices in Europe have already developedunusually large premiums versus other oilseeds as aresult of this year's poor crop and the looming rapeseedsupply deficit in the EU.

The current premiums for rapeseed in northernEurope are the biggest since 2011, when a setback ofthe EU crop by 1.4 Mn T resulted in independent pricestrength. At that time the dependence of the EUbiodiesel industry on rapeseed oil was still strongerthan today, probably curbing the price premium some-what at present.

The price strength on the European rapeseedmarket is justified by the need to maximize rapeseedimports from all available origins. Indeed, rapeseedexports from Ukraine to Europe were unusually large inJuly and August. falk

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 432 Aug 30, 2019

FORECASTS

India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh Forecast to Increase Importsof Oils & Fats by 1.3 Mn T or 4% in 2019/20

Rising import dependence, primarily satisfied with palm oil, soya oil and sun oil

SUMMARYThe outlook for Oct/Sept 2019/20 points to a further

increase in imports of vegetable oils and animal fats inIndia, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. India andChina are the most populous countries with 1.37 and1.43 Bn people estimated in mid-2019. The populationin Pakistan is estimated at 217 Mn and in Bangladeshat 163 Mn (not included are up to 1 Mn refugees).These four countries thus have a combined populationof 3.18 Bn people and account for 41% of the worldtotal.

This is a summary of our forecasts of the importrequirements of 17 oils & fats in Oct/Sept 2019/20,based on our current supply & demand estimates:

India will require imports of approximately 15.8 MnT, up 0.4 Mn T from last year, most of which covered bypalm oil, soya oil and sun oil. We expect a growth indomestic consumption by 0.5 Mn T and calculateaverage consumption per caput at 18.4 kilos inOct/Sept 2019/20. India was analysed in the OILWORLD WEEKLY of August 23.

China is likely to boost imports of oils & fats to 12.5Mn T, up by 0.9 Mn T from a year earlier, with biggestincreases in palm oil, soya oil and sun oil. Someincrease is also expected in palmkernel oil, butter,castor oil and tallow. The growth in Chinese domesticconsumption is expected to slow to just 0.1-0.2 Mn T.But even under this assumption Chinese stocks willhave to be reduced further to a multi-year low at theend of next season.

In Pakistan we expect imports of oils & fats tovirtually stagnate or to rise only slightly from 3.42 Mn Ta year earlier. Our assumption is that domestic produc-tion will rise on account of larger imports and crushingsof soybeans and canola.

In Bangladesh we expect a further increase inimports of oils & fats by approximately 100 Thd T to2.74 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20.

CHINA, P.R.In Oct/Sept 2018/19 sharply reduced oilseed

crushings are necessitating a significant increase inimports of oils & fats, with the biggest jumps in palm oil,rapeseed oil, soya oil and sun oil.

In the July/Sept 2019 quarter the year-on-yeardecline in Chinese crushings of soybeans and canolais apparently accelerating. To partly compensate thereduced domestic production, Chinese imports of 17oils & fats are likely to reach a new high of 3.1 Mn T thisquarter, about 0.6 Mn T more than in comparable 2018.Palm oil imports this quarter are estimated to rise by 0.3Mn T from a year ago, soya oil by 0.2 and sun oil by 0.1Mn T.

For the full season 2018/19 we estimate totalChinese imports of 17 oils & fats to rise steeply by 2.3Mn T to 11.6 Mn T. Still, it will be necessary to reducestocks to offset the decline in domestic output and tosatisfy domestic requirements.

Contrary to oilmeals, Chinese consumption of 17oils & fats has apparently continued to rise this season,although at a somewhat smaller rate than in precedingyears. We therefore expect only a marginal increase inconsumption per caput.

In the 17 years until 2017/18 Chinese total con-sumption of 17 oils & fats almost doubled to 38.5 Mn T.The average annual growth amounted to 0.7 Mn Tduring the five years up to 2017/18. For this season weexpect a slowing-down of the growth to 0.37 Mn T. Afurther slowing-down is likely next season.

Outlook 2019/20: Import requirements of 17 oils &fats will continue to rise and probably reach 12.5 Mn T,a new record. We consider it likely that imports of palmoil will rise to a new high of 6.8-6.9 Mn T, up steeplyfrom preceding years. Imports of soya oil will probablybe boosted further to 1.2 Mn T and of sun oil to 1.1 MnT, whereas we expect moderate reductions in theimports of rapeseed & canola oils as well as in coconutoil.

We consider it likely that soybean crushings willcontinue to decline in the first half of the 2019/20

4 ASIAN COUNTRIES: Imports of 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T) October / September

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16India . . . . . . . . . 15.79* 15.43* 14.67 15.42 15.21China, P.R. . . . . 12.50* 11.64* 9.35 8.68 8.37Pakistan . . . . . . 3.43* 3.42* 3.13 3.11 3.00Bangladesh . . . 2.74* 2.64* 2.53 2.35 2.04Total . . . . . . . . . 34.46* 33.12* 29.68 29.56 28.62of which:

Palm oil 21.59* 21.05* 18.75 18.68 17.64Soya oil . . . . . 5.67* 5.10* 4.46 5.26 5.88Sun oil . . . . . 3.51* 3.36* 3.27 2.87 2.41Rape oil . . . . 1.51* 1.55* 1.35 1.10 1.12

CHINA: Supply & Demand of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T )O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16Production . . . . 26.47* 27.31* 29.93 28.11 27.59

Soya oil . . . . . . 15.11* 15.24* 17.12* 15.59* 14.35*Rape oil . . . . . 3.38* 3.40* 3.61* 3.56* 4.46*Lard . . . . . . . . 2.79* 3.37* 3.71* 3.68* 3.64*

Imports . . . . . . . 12.50* 11.64* 9.35 8.68 8.37Soya oil . . . . . . 1.20* .83* .48 .71 .59Sun oil . . . . . . 1.10* 1.00* .78 .73 .88Rape oil . . . . . 1.43* 1.47* 1.07 .80 .77Palm oil . . . . . 6.85* 6.52* 5.42 5.02 4.80

Exports .27* .30* .36 .24 .18

Stock change -.35* -.26* +.38 -1.32 -1.58

Consumption 39.05* 38.91* 38.54 37.88 37.36

Caput use (kilos) 27.1* 27.1* 27.0 26.7 26.4Population (Mn) 1439 1434 1428 1421 1414

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 433 Aug 30, 2019

season. Pig numbers have been severely reduced andfeed demand from the pig industry is down correspond-ingly. To some extent, however, this is offset by rapidlyincreasing Chinese production of other livestockproducts, primarily poultry. Also for aquaculture weexpect rising production volumes next season.

One of the big uncertainties is the further develop-ment of the US-China trade war and the timing andresults of future trade negotiations.

Without fresh purchases of US soybeans or large-scale purchases in Argentina, Chinese soybean sup-plies will be very tight in Dec/Febr 2019/20. Most of therecent large purchases of Brazilian soybeans were forshipment in Sept and Oct. Brazilian soybean exportsare likely to be down noticeably in Nov and Dec. Nextyear’s Brazilian soybean is likely to increase sizeably.But the timing and magnitude of Brazilian new-cropexports in early 2020 will depend on whether or notplantings will be delayed in September due to drynessin major soybean growing areas.

Chinese soybean crushings are estimated to bereduced steeply by 11-12 Mn T from a year earlier inOct/Sept 2018/19. We consider it likely that there will beanother slight reduction in 2019/20.

The prospective sizable decline in the production oflard will also raise Chinese import requirements of oils& fats next season. We expect a steep decline inChinese pork output by about 8-9 Mn T from a yearearlier in Oct/Sept 2019/20. Lard production is set todecline correspondingly.

Domestic pork prices have skyrocketed by aboutone quarter during the past three weeks. On August 23they were quoted at 31.77 yuan per kilo compared with25.45 yuan on August 2 and 20.69 yuan on May 31.

Imports of pork are rising sharply, but they cannotprevent a noticeable decline in domestic supplies.

Chinese meat imports continued to grow to arecord 404 Thd T in July. Cumulative arrivals of 2.28Mn T in Jan/July were 46% higher than a year ago.Beef imports increased by 57% in that period with thebiggest growth in Argentine beef. Pork imports were up36% in Jan/July. The EU accounted for most of theuptrend. However, the import volumes were insufficientto prevent a further tightening of domestic pork sup-plies, reflected in the recent price rally on the Chinesemarket.

Cumulative poultry imports were 50% higher than ayear ago with Brazil delivering 298 Thd T in Jan/July(242). For details with breakdown by country see SU24-22.

PAKISTANConsumption of oils and fats is estimated at 5.2 Mn

T in Oct/Sept 2018/19, reflecting an increase of 1.5 MnT from 10 years ago. In this period domestic production

increased by 0.2–0.3 Mn T Mn T and imports by 1.4 MnT.

Palm oil imports surged by 13% to 1.66 Mn T inJan/June 2019 and cumulative imports are estimated ata record 3.2 Mn T this season, up from 1.87 Mn T in2008/09.

Domestic vegetable oil production benefited from asteep increase of soybean imports and crushings inApril/Dec 2018 when Pakistani processors took advan-tage of low US soybean prices.

However, Pakistani soybean imports are seendwindling to at best 1.2 Mn T in Jan/Sept 2019, downfrom 1.8 Mn T a year ago. Margins were apparentlysqueezed by temporary firmness in US soybean pricesand low palm oil prices. Furthermore, there has been apartial shift to rapeseed processing, with some crushersboosting imports of Canadian canola mainly from Aprilonward, when the trade conflict between Canada andChina started.

Outlook 2019/20: We assume that soybean importsand crushings will recover, driven by rising feed require-ments of the expanding domestic poultry industry. USsoybean export sales to Pakistan for the new seasonwere at 0.26 Mn T as of Aug 15 still down from 0.66 MnT a year ago but at current low prices a pick-up ofpurchases seems imminent. The uptrend of palm oilprices is likely to support profits of Pakistani soybeancrushers.

We currently anticipate only a minor increase ofvegetable oil imports to at least 3.4 Mn T next season,following a boost by about 9% in 2018/19. This is basedon the assumption of recovering domestic output andrelatively large carry-over stocks, mainly of palm oil.The palm oil import volume is seen rising only margin-ally to about 3.2 Mn T next season, probably curtailedby the prospective further price appreciation.

BANGLADESHConsumption of oils and fats increased by an

average 8% per year during the past 10 years, drivenby population growth and rising per capita consumption.The latter is seen reaching an average 18.8 kilos in2018/19, virtually doubling from ten years ago.

Imports of soybeans are seen rising sharply to arecord 1.6 Mn T in 2018/19 and also rapeseed imports

CHINA, P.R.: Imports of Meat (1000 T) July May/July Jan/July

2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018Beef & veal 152 83 410 254 850 540Pork 182 88 530 302 1001 736Poultry meat 70 49 205 134 424 282Total 404 221 1145 691 2275 1558

PAKISTAN: Summary Balance of Oils & Fats (Thd T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 Production . . . . 2096* 1933* 2064* 1951* 1834* Cotton Oil . . . . 407* 362* 393* 363* 343* Rapeseed Oil . 399* 357* 440* 500* 502* Sunflower Oil . . 39* 38* 46* 65* 68*

Imports . . . . . . . 3435* 3419* 3127 3107* 2995* Soya Oil . . . . . . 140* 170* 105 180 257 Palm Oil . . . . . . 3230* 3200* 2968 2860* 2683*

Exports . . . . . . . . 90* 88* 80* 76* 79*

Change in Stocks +9* -2* +18* +71* +56*

Dom. Disapp. . . 5432* 5265* 5093* 4913* 4693*

Population (Mn) 220.9* 216.6* 212.2 207.9 203.6

Caput use (kilos) 24.6* 24.3* 24.0* 23.6* 23.1*

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 434 Aug 30, 2019

picked up in recent months. This is seen lifting domesticproduction of oils and fats to 0.4–0.5 Mn T in Oct/Sept2018/19, up from less than 0.2 Mn T in 2008/09.

The uptrend of both soybean imports and process-ing was largely driven by growing soya meal demandfrom the livestock industry. However, the country'simport dependence on vegetable oils increased furtherowing to highly insufficient domestic output. Vegetableoil imports are expected to approach a record 2.7 Mn Tin 2018/19, up from 2.53 Mn T a year ago and 1.2 MnT ten years ago.

It was somewhat surprising to see palm oil importsdeclining below the high year-ago level in Jan/June2019 despite palm oil’s strong price competitiveness.The total palm oil import volume is thus seen fallingbelow last season’s record to 1.63 Mn T in 2018/19.

In contrast, soya oil imports have been on a pro-nounced uptrend since late 2018 (mainly from Argen-tina) and will probably increase by roughly one quarterto a new high of 1.02 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19.

Outlook 2019/20: The consumption growth will beaffected by the extent of the looming price increase ofmajor vegetable oils, given low purchasing power ofmost consumers in Bangladesh.

Together with relatively large stocks accumulated inrecent months, we expect this factor to curb the growthof vegetable oil imports from 180 Thd T in 2017/18 and150–160 Thd T this season to about 70 Thd T nextseason. The consumption growth is expected to fallbelow average to 5–6%. Still, palm oil import require-ments may turn out near the previous high of 1.7 Mn T.

FACTS & FIGURESBIOFUEL

Germany: Biodiesel admixture stayed below theyear-ago level in June, widening the decline from lastyear to 7% in Jan/June 2019. Ethanol use was 3%lower in that period.

Total consumption of rapeseed oil and of all vegeta-ble oils was on an uptrend in the first half of the year.German biodiesel net exports more than doubled to

0.54 Mn T in Jan/June, probably more than offsettingthe setback of domestic biodiesel use and keepingbiodiesel output elevated.

Brazil: In July biodiesel was in line with expecta-tions at 433 Thd T, bringing the total so far this year to2.79 Mn T, up almost 10% from a year earlier. Higherquantities of soya oil and palm oil was used as afeedstock, while tallow declined.

We estimate biodiesel production in August close tothe July figure. But with an increase in the biodieseladmixture mandate to 11% as of Sept 1 (from thecurrent 10%) monthly biodiesel production in Brazil islikely to increase to 480-490 Thd T from Sept onward,bringing this year’s total to an estimated 5.16 Mn Tcompared with 4.68 Mn T last year and 3.75 Mn T in2017.

PALMKERNEL EXPELLERSEU consumption of palmkernel expellers declined

pronouncedly in Apr/June and is expected to staysubdued also this quarter compared to the recordusage in Oct/March 2018/19.

BANGLADESH : Balance of 17 Oils & Fats ( 1000 T )O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16Production . . . . 509* 464 416 387 388

Soya oil . . . . . . 275* 257* 214 182 173Rape oil . . . . . 180* 153* 138 157 168

Imports . . . . . . . 2735* 2635* 2528 2348 2044Soya oil . . . . . . 1030* 972* 823 892 630Palm oil . . . . . 1670* 1630* 1677 1427 1386

Consumption 3236* 3024* 2897 2656 2419 Soya oil . . . . . . 1307* 1169* 1034 1002 780 Rape oil . . . . . 180* 153* 139 157 168 Palm oil . . . . . . 1660* 1615* 1635 1420 1396

Stocks change . -11* +42* +37 +78 +14

Caput use (kilos) 19.6* 18.5 18.0 16.6 15.3Population (Mn) 164.7* 163.0 161.4 159.7 158.0

GDP Growth 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 6.8%

GERMANY : Fuel Use ( 1000 T )June May Jan/June

2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018Diesel (a) 3024 3175 3275 3153 18530 18248Petrol (a) 1536 1601 1566 1563 8697 8800

Biofuel 287 290 285 312 1602 1694

Biodiesel 194 197 183 205 1083 1160Ethanol 93 93 102 107 519 534

(a) Incl. biofuel admixture quantities shown below. Source: Federal Off. for Econ. Affairs & Export Control (BAFA).

BRAZIL : Biodiesel Production ( 1000 T )July June Jan/July

Biodiesel 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018Production 433 429 403 409 2793 2551

Feedstock usedSoya oil (b) . 317 307 287 299 1955 1801Palm oil . . . . 8 2 9 2 53 22Tallow . . . . . 35 52 47 53 324 347Cotton oil . . 2 2 1 . 13 7Other (a) . . . 71 66 59 55 448 374(a) Also mixtures, which include soya oil and tallow.(b) Reported use (incomplete).

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 435 Aug 30, 2019

We understand that increased supplies of alternativefeedstuff on the EU market have made inclusion of PKEin feed rations rather unattractive in recent months,implying a striking turnaround from the situation prevail-ing a year ago when the severe summer drought hadboosted sales to compound feeders in northwesternEurope and led to sharp increases in EU imports ofPKE in Oct/March 2018/19 (for detailed import statisticssee SU 13-12 in our weekly report of Aug 23). Thecoverage for Oct/March 2018/19 was raised as somecompound feed producers feared that the price rallywhich had started in mid-June 2018 will continue in theremainder of last year. But we hear that the business iscurrently being done mostly on a hand-to-mouth basis.On August 29, PKE was offered approximately US-$ 60below the year-ago level in Rotterdam.

GERMANYRapeseed crushings exceeded expectations at

0.70 Mn T in June, a record for the month and pro-moted by attractive processing margins. But despite therecovery registered in recent months, German rape-seed crushings still dropped to a 6-year low of 8.97 MnT in July/June 2018/19. This compares to 9.12 Mn T ayear earlier and the high of 9.69 Mn T processed inJuly/June 2014/15. Latest supply and demand data areprovided on SU 15-15.

Current indications point to a further sizeable decline

in German crushings this season, considering thesevere drop in domestic rapeseed production in thevicinity of 0.7 Mn T or 19% this year.

RUSSIA & UKRAINEFrequent rainfall in August has supported overall

good to excellent sunflowerseed crop prospects inmany parts of Russia and Ukraine, raising chances thattheir combined production will match the 2018 recordlevel or even slightly exceed it. Harvesting is still in itsvery early stages with only 1-2% collected as of Aug 29in Russia and Ukraine.

Russian farmers have also already started soybeanharvesting with 5% of the area done and 286 Thd Tcollected, implying an average yield of 1.9 T/ha (vs. 1.4T/ha a year before). At the same time, harvesting ofrapeseed progressed to 19% with 0.67 Mn T collectedwith an average yield of 2.2 T/ha (vs. 1.9).

In Ukraine most of this year’s rapeseed crop isalready harvested and a large part of it is presumablyalready marketed. Although yields fell short of the year-ago level owing to dryness and above-normal tempera-tures in June, production is estimated to have reacheda new high in 2019.

Rapeseed shipments have progressed at a recordpace so far this season, fuelled by strong EU importdemand. In Aug 1-26 they reportedly reached around750 Thd T, already exceeding any volume everachieved in the full month of August, with 730-740 ThdT earmarked for crushings in the European Union.

Rapeseed crushings declined on the year in July asevidenced by the setback in the reported industrialoutput of rape oil. However, they picked up in Augustand are seen rising further in September. We expectthat rapeseed processing will start to decline seasonallyin October, as many crushers will increasingly switch tosunflowerseed and soybeans. In July processing of thelatter two continued to fall, though exceeding thecomparable 2018 levels.

Ukrainian rapeseed oil exports to China are seenreaching a one-year high of 15 Thd T in August, basedon preliminary shipment data, and are likely to continuetheir uptrend in the next few months. We understand

UKRAINE : Industrial Production (1000 T)July June Oct / July

2019 2018 2019 2018 18/19 17/18Sun oil . . . 320 199 421 350 4824 4181Soya oil . . . 18 13 25 18 241 177Rape oil . . 35 44 . . 39 74Total . . . . . 373 256 446 368 5104 4432

Poultry . . . 102 89 99 89 1037 859Butter, 78% 9 10 8 11 74 88Margarine 21 16 21 16 196 193

UKRAINE: Exports of Rapeseed Oil & Meal (1000 T)A u g u s t J u l y

2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017Rapeseed oil . . . 38* 27 20 3 16 2 EU-28 . . . . . . . . 23* 21 17 3 13 2 China, P.R. . . . . 15* 6 3 . 3 -

Rapeseed meal 45* 54 23 10 5 3 EU-28 . . . . . . . . 27* 34 22 5 5 3 Morocco . . . . . . - * 7 - - - - Israel . . . . . . . . . 10* 11 - - - - Turkey . . . . . . . 7* - - 5 - -

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 436 Aug 30, 2019

that Chinese importers are already hav-ing large quantities of Ukrainian rape oilfor delivery in 2019/20 in their books,probably at least 100 Thd T.

Shipments of Ukrainian rape oil to theEU have increased slightly from a yearearlier in August, while those of rapemeal declined, albeit to a still compara-tively large 27 Thd T.

Ukrainian sun oil exports sloweddown sharply to only around 300 Thd Tduring Aug 1-26 as recent very highprices have hurt demand. India, Chinaand the EU reportedly took 80-90 Thd Teach.

REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICAThis year's sunseed production esti-

mate was raised further to 681 Thd Taccording to the 7th official crop estimatereleased on Aug 27, up from only 564Thd T expected in February. The supplyshortage is thus not as severe as as-sumed but the production decline of 21%from last year is still significant.

Processing of sunseed plunged by123 Thd T or 40% on the year inApril/July 2019. Given a supply decline of 180-190 ThdT, much of the required demand rationing has alreadybeen accomplished. We estimate crushings at a 4-yearlow of 720 Thd T in April/March 2019/20, assumingsome imports and a significant reduction of stocks.

In contrast, soybean crushings increased by 23%since the start of the season in March. The net effectwas a pronounced setback of South African veg. oilproduction.

Declining domestic production boosted SouthAfrican sunflower oil imports to roughly 150 Thd T inJan/July 2019, up from 69 Thd T a year ago. About 38Thd T were imported from Bulgaria and 10–15 Thd Tfrom Argentina in June/July.

CANADAOutlook 2019/20: Oilseed production is estimated

by StatsCan to decline to a 5-year low of 25.4 Mn T in2019, down 2.9 Mn T or 10% from a year earlier.Reductions of 8% are seen in the harvested area andof 2% in the average yield.

In its announcement of August 28 StatsCan peggedthis year’s canola crop at 18.45 Mn T (down 1.9 Mn Tfrom last year and down even 2.9 Mn T from the recordestablished in 2017), with reductions of 12% in Sas-katchewan and 9% in Alberta and a recovery by 3%from last year in Manitoba. General market expecta-tions were for a canola crop estimate of close to 19.0

Mn T nationwide as a result of improved weather andgrowing conditions following a difficult start earlier in theyear.

Canadian farmers reduced canola plantings to a 3-year low of 8.5 Mn ha this year (down 8%) owing to thetrade conflict with China, the sharp decline in canolaexport sales to that destination, the accumulation ofrecord canola stocks in Canada at the end of the2018/19 season and reduced canola prices. We are stillusing a slightly higher Canadian canola crop estimatefor this year of 18.9 Mn T.

Also in the case of soybeans and flaxseed the newproduction estimates of StatsCan of 6.20 and 0.56 MnT were short of general market expectations partly dueto lower than expected area and partly due to smalleryield estimates.

Grain plantings increased to a multi-year high andwere up 0.7 Mn ha from a year earlier in 2019, benefit-ing from reduced oilseed plantings. Most of the in-crease occurred in barley and oats. This year, however,acreage abandonment is assumed to be above normalat 1.05 Mn ha for the major grains and at 0.15 Mn ha inthe case of oilseeds.

Production of 5 grains is estimated to rise slightly by1% to 58.7 Mn T in 2019, a 6-year high. Total produc-tion of wheat is estimated at 31.25 Mn T for this year,which was about 1 Mn T below market expectationsand also down from last year’s 32.2 Mn T. But produc-tion of barley and oats is expected to increase sizablyto 9.64 and 3.95 Mn T, respectively.

Output of peas and lentils is seen increasing by 1.2Mn T on account of increases in plantings and yields.

Update 2018/19: Oilseed crushings reached a newhigh in Aug/July 2018/19, following record canola andsoybean processing for the month of July of 855 Thd Tand 181 Thd T, respectively. Abundant domesticoilseed supplies and ongoing strong global import

REP. OF S. AFRICA : Sunseed Balance (1000 T) A p r i l / M a r c h

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16Open'g stocks 95* 100* 135* 62* 83*Crop . . . . . . . 681 862 874 755 663Imports . . . . . 25* 3 2 72 36

Exports . . . . . 1* 1 1 1 1Crushings . . . 720* 853 896 738 705Other use . . . 15* 16* 14* 15* 14*Ending stocks 65* 95* 100* 135* 62*

CANADA : Production and Harvested Area

Production (Mn T) Yields Area (Mn ha)2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2019 2018

All wheat . . . 31.25 32.20 30.38 3.20 3.26 9.78 9.88Corn . . . . . . 13.61 13.88 14.10 9.30 9.70 1.46 1.43Barley . . . . . 9.64 8.38 7.89 3.57 3.50 2.70 2.40Oats . . . . . . 3.95 3.44 3.73 3.41 3.42 1.16 1.00Rye . . . . . . . 0.28 0.24 0.34 2.91 2.99 0.10 0.075 Grains 58.74 58.14 56.44 3.87 3.93 15.19 14.79Change +1% +3% -4% -2% -5% +3% +8%

Soybeans . . 6.20 7.27 7.72 2.70 2.86 2.29 2.54Sunseed . . . 0.05 0.06 0.06 2.26 2.13 0.02 0.03Canola . . . . 18.45 20.34 21.33 2.21 2.23 8.36 9.12Mustardseed 0.16 0.17 0.12 0.99 0.88 0.16 0.20Flaxseed . . . 0.56 0.49 0.56 1.52 1.44 0.37 0.345 Oilseeds 25.42 28.33 29.78 2.27 2.32 11.20 12.23Change -10% -5% +10% -2% 0% -8% -5%

Lentils . . . . . 2.38 2.09 2.56 1.59 1.40 1.50 1.50Peas . . . . . . 4.53 3.58 4.11 2.63 2.50 1.72 1.43

Grand Total 91.07 92.14 92.89 3.07 3.08 29.62 29.95Change -1% -1% -1% 0% -1% -1% 0%

Source: StatCan of 28 Aug 2019

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 437 Aug 30, 2019

demand, particularly for canola oil & meal, keptcrushings elevated in July.

High utilization rates of late, however, have report-edly again postponed the yearly maintenance into thenew season also in 2019. Last year Canadian canolacrushings declined contra-seasonally to a multi-yearlow in September and October after setting new highsin July and August.

At 9.30 Mn T canola crushings were up only margin-ally on the year in Aug/July 2018/19 while soybeanprocessing increased by 7% (vs. 4% a year earlier).We expect Canadian canola crushings to stay close to9.3 Mn T in Aug/July 2019/20, with the prospective dropin production more than offset by the 1.7-1.8 Mn Tincrease in carry-in stocks.

U.S.A.Beneficial rainfall in the second half of August has

improved conditions of corn and soybeans and, asexpected, led to increases in the share of the cropsrated good or excellent. However, in many parts of theUS precipitation has been accompanied by below-normal temperatures, additionally delaying the growth

of corn and soybeans and raising concern that manycrops may not reach maturity before the first frost.

The share of soybeans in good or excellent healthincreased by two percentage points in the week endedAug 25, exceeding trade expectations but still implyingan eleven-point reduction from a year before. The mostnoticeable improvements were registered in Illinois,Kansas and Missouri. Soybeans are currently report-edly least mature in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

US corn was rated good or excellent on 57% of thearea as of Aug 25, up one percentage point on theweek and in line with pre-report guesses but below 68%a year ago. Conditions of cotton, on the contrary,deteriorated by six points and were one point below theyear-earlier level as of Aug 25 compared with the 21-point increase five weeks earlier.

Export inspections of US soybeans declined butstill surpassed the year-earlier volume at 0.96 Mn T inthe week to Aug 22. 64% of the total was declared forshipment to China, while Mexico and South Korea werethe second and the third largest destinations, respec-tively.

Global demand for US soybeans stays subduedand the country is likely to enter the new marketing yearwith the lowest export sales in the books since at least2008. While outstanding old-crop export commitments

CANADA: Crush of Canola & Soybeans (1000 T) July Aug / July

2019 2018 18/19 17/18 16/17Canola . . 855 838 9295 9269 9191Soybeans 181 145 2077 1937 1858Total . . . . 1036 983 11373 11206 11049

U.S.A.: Soybean Export Inspections ( 1000 T )

W e e k e n d i n g SinceAug22 Aug23 Aug15 Aug16 Sep 1

2019 2018 2019 2018 2018 2017Total . . . . . . 962 908 1159 661 44447 55521W.Europe - 176 118 130 7650 5358Egypt . . . . 54 91 57 57 2723 2407Canada . . . - 11 - 24 550 445Mexico . . . 106 200 82 45 4542 4061Argentina . - 37 - 30 1938 169Bangladesh 1 56 54 2 878 997China PR . 613 - 551 - 12323 28598Indonesia . 22 41 79 109 2211 2406Iran . . . . . . - 68 - 71 452 409Japan . . . . 37 41 74 10 2017 1885Korea,S . . 57 36 1 - 1079 718Pakistan . . - - - 68 1022 1524Taiwan . . . 9 14 89 12 1749 1739Thailand . . 10 19 29 13 1449 1332Vietnam . . 6 76 9 6 739 1137

U.S.A. : Sales and Exports up to August 22 ( Mn T )

Export sales Reported exports Undeliv.commit.

New-crop sales Week

Latest week Cumulative Latest week Cumulative Aug22 Aug23 Aug22 Cumulative2019 2018 18/19 17/18 2019 2018 18/19 17/18 2019 2018 2019 18/19 17/18

Soybeans (a) .10 .04 48.71 58.80 .87 .90 44.99 55.42 3.72 3.38 .35 5.61 13.22to: China .08 -.06 14.15 27.86 .54 - 12.25 27.62 1.90 .25 - .26 1.33 Mexico . -.02 4.97 4.50 .07 .22 4.82 4.17 .14 .33 .12 1.05 1.83 EU-28 . .19 7.86 5.54 - .10 7.82 5.37 .04 .18 - .05 .15 Other ctrs .18 .34 20.94 19.73 .26 .58 20.10 18.26 .85 1.45 .09 1.51 3.39 Unknown -.16 -.41 .79 1.17 - - - - .79 1.17 .14 2.74 6.52

Soya meal (b) .05 -.02 11.98 12.43 .30 .25 10.37 10.98 1.61 1.45 .25 1.46 1.46

Soya oil (b) .01 .02 .89 1.06 . .01 .74 .92 .15 .14 . .03 .04

Corn (a) . .18 50.10 60.54 .61 1.34 48.54 56.00 1.56 4.54 .86 5.54 10.44

(a) Since Sept 1. (b) Since Oct 1.

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 438 Aug 30, 2019

amounted to 3.7 Mn T (of which 1.9 Mn T on account ofChina) as of Aug 22, the second largest volume onrecord at this time of the year, cumulative sales fordelivery in 2019/20 totalled only 5.6 Mn T, a 13-yearlow.

Combined US soybean export sales were reportedat 0.45 Mn T in the week to Aug 22, the bulk of whichfor shipment from September onward. China reportedlytook 77 Thd T of the total, but at least 70 Thd T weremerely switches from the unknown category. Mexicopurchased 126 Thd T and was the largest buyer duringthe week in review.

Export sales of US soya meal reached 0.3 Mn T inthe week to Aug 22, most of which for shipment in2019/20, declining on the year for the fourth week in arow. Subdued buying interest in recent weeks erasedthe initial year-on-year increase in new-crop commit-ments. US soya meal shipments increased sizablyduring the week in review, but cumulative exports sinceAug 2 were at 0.67 Mn T only marginally above thecomparable 2018 period.

Combined US soya oil export sales for delivery thisand next season were at 10 Thd T in the week to Aug22 small and less than half the year-ago level.

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA Combined palm oil exports are now expected to

fall short of a year earlier in April/Sept 2019 in Colom-bia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica.

There was a slight decline in total exports of thesecountries from a year earlier in April/June in contrast toan increase by roughly 100 Thd T in Oct/March. Thedecline occured mainly in Ecuador and Colombia.Production has been lower than expected in June inColombia and remained comparatively low also in July.

In Ecuador palm oil production is falling rapidly as aresult of the bud-rot disease which has affected a largenumber of the oil palms in the country. For Ecuador weforecast palm oil production to plunge by approximately

160 Thd T or almost 30% from a year earlier in calen-dar year 2019. But in Guatemala, Honduras and CostaRica palm oil exports continued to increase from a yearearlier in April/June 2019.

For July/Sept 2019 we estimate palm oil exports ofthe five countries to decline to around 600 Thd Tcompared with 654 in comparable 2018.

BRAZILSoybean exports were reported at 1.3 Mn T in the

week to Aug 25, bringing the cumulation so far thismonth to 4.0 Mn , down from 6.55 Mn T a year ago T.This contrasts with a boost in corn exports to 6.3 Mn Tduring Aug 1–25 (1.55). In that period exports of crudesoya oil reached 73 Thd T (191) and of soya meal 988Thd T (927).

BOLIVIASoybean exports will probably be boosted to 0.5

Mn T in Sept/Aug 2019/20, primarily in the second halfof the season, if plantings of summer-crop soybeansare increased in line with expectations and if weathercooperates.

Soybean cultivation has become more attractive forfarmers after the government has allowed soybeanexports. We expect the soybean crop to recover toabout 3.2 Mn T in 2019/20 (both winter and summercrop combined) compared with 2.5 Mn T in 2018/19.

Trade agreements are expected to boost exports ofagricultural products to China. About 40 Thd T of meatare expected to be exported from Bolivia to China in thenext 3-4 months. We assume that China will also be themajor recipients of Bolivian soybeans, primarily fromMay 2020 onward.

There is further considerable growth potential forsoybean cultivation and production may approach 5.0Mn T in 3-4 years, driven by increasing soybean exportsales to China as well as a currently emerging domesticbiodiesel industry (with an annual capacity of 450 ThdT).

CHINA, P.R.Imports of 12 oilmeals declined by 4% from a year

earlier to 0.4 Mn T in July. This was contrary to theboost by roughly 50% registered in the imports of 17oils & fats to 1.2 Mn T. Imports of oilseeds increased by5% from a year earlier, mainly on account of soybeans.

During Oct/July 2018/19 reduced crushings ofsoybeans and rapeseed & canola enforced sizablyhigher imports of vegetable oils as well as of oilmeals,with biggest increases occurring in palm oil, rapeseedoil, sunflower oil, soya oil, sunflower meal, palmkernelmeal, rapeseed meal and fish meal.

Central & South America: Palm Oil Output (1000 T)Apr/June Oct / June

2019 2018 18/19 17/18 16/17 Costa Rica . . 83* 77* 200* 182* 160*Guatemala . . 215* 170* 689* 577* 539*Honduras . . . 165* 137* 529* 466* 442*Colombia . . . 412 401 1293 1195 1145 Ecuador . . . . 115* 162* 347* 450* 474*Total . . . . . . . 990 947 3058 2870 2760

Central & South America: Exports of Palm Oil(1000 T) April/June Oct / JuneFrom : 2019 2018 18/19 17/18 16/17 Costa Rica . 69 59 168 146 113 Guatemala . 202 164 623 525 481 Honduras . . 126 94 425 336 331 Colombia . . 234* 268* 624* 651* 373*Ecuador . . . 35 86 143 232 262 Total . . . . . . 666 671 1983 1890 1559

Thereof to:EU-28 . . . . . 397 331 1135 962 720 El Salvador . 24 25 79 77 75 Mexico . . . . 110 128 345 381 374 Nicaragua . . 11 14 33 34 35 Brazil . . . . . 23 37 56 90 44 Venezuela . 13 15 73 52 65

BOLIVIA : Soybean Balance ( 1000 T )S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

19/20F 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 Op. stocks 117* 267* 370* 245* 280*Crop . . . . . . 3200* 2500* 2600* 2700* 2900*Imports . . . . 3* 3* 8 9 11

Exports . . . . 500* 9* 7 20 83 Crushings . . 2600* 2580* 2640* 2500* 2800*Other use . . 70* 64* 64* 64* 64*End. stocks 150* 117* 267* 370* 245*

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Page 439 Aug 30, 2019

Exports of soya meal were comparatively high at110 Thd T in July, of which 87 Thd T to Japan. InOct/July China still exported 747 Thd T of soya meal(against 900 a year earlier), of which 447 Thd T toJapan (against 530), 233 to the European Union (250),17 to Vietnam and 15 Thd T to North Korea. (SU 24-21/22)

The large Chinese palm oil imports of 644 Thd T inJuly were mainly from Indonesia (546). Soya oil importswere reported at a 2-year high of 132 Thd T, thereoffrom Brazil 73 as well as Argentina and Russia 21 ThdT each.

Rapeseed imports dwindled to 129 Thd T in July,the lowest level since Oct 2016. Cumulative importsplunged by 26% to 2.05 Mn T in Jan/July, thereof fromCanada 1.88 Mn T (2.61).

The shortage of rapeseed caused a 23% increasein Chinese rapeseed oil imports to 895 Thd T inJan/July, of which Canada 612 (669). Combinedimports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in-creased to 132 Thd T (45).

The reported Chinese import volumes of rape-seed/canola and lately also of rapeseed oil are surpris-ingly high compared to the export volumes reportedfrom the trading partners. So far we could not find asatisfying explanation for the discrepancies.

INDIAThe Indian government has this week introduced a

5% safeguard duty on imports of refined palm oil fromMalaysia, thereby removing the preferential treatmentthat had caused booming Indian imports of RBD palmolein so far this year.

This measure harmonizes the import duty on refinedpalm oil from all origins at 50% compared to 40%applied on imports of crude palm oil.

There are also reports that the Indian government isconsidering to impose an additional 5% tax on vegeta-ble oil imports to finance an oilseed fund intended toboost the country's ailing oilseed production.

CHINA,P.R.: Imports of Selected Commodities(1000 T) July Oct / July

2019 2018 18/19 17/18 16/17

10 oilseeds . . . . 8940 8546 69735 82340 8221117 oils & fats . . . 1179 783 9712 7601 703812 oilmeals . . . . 415 432 4015 2803 2624

Soybeans . . . . . 8640 7974 64932 76933 76934 USA . . . . . . . . . 912 308 6949 28284 35722 Argentina . . . . . 1073 297 3734 2584 4547 Brazil . . . . . . . . 6421 7044 49706 42639 33325 Other countries . 234 325 4543 3426 3340

Soya oil . . . . . . . 132 37 568 320 602 Russia &Ukraine. . . . . . . . 33 28 133 178 81 Argentina . . . . . 21 - 268 2 . Brazil . . . . . . . . 73 - 150 111 317

Soya meal . . . . . 1 . 15 18 54

Sunflowerseed . 14 1 215 117 93

Sun oil . . . . . . . . 108 40 820 635 624 Russia. . . . . . . . 26 29 156 165 83 Ukraine . . . . . . . 80 2 635 429 510

Sun meal . . . . . . 62 23 949 181 - Ukraine . . . . . . . 62 23 946 169 -

Rape/Canola 129 469 3191 3878 3646 Russia . . . . . . . 4 14 201 157 33 Canada . . . . . . . 118 446 2899 3593 3426

Rape oil . . . . . . . 152 167 1267 869 728 Russia &Ukraine. . . . . . . . 16 13 163 53 8 Canada . . . . . . . 106 149 903 776 688 U.A.E. . . . . . . . . 3 - 73 3 - EU-28. . . . . . . . 19 . 28 5 4

Rape meal . . . . . 99 88 1117 1012 734

Groundnut oil . . 19 27 136 87 96

Sesameseed . . . 52 26 652 711 605

Palm oil . . . . . . . 644 374 5541 4475 3895 Indonesia . . . . . 546 232 3863 2882 2467 Malaysia . . . . . . 92 142 1668 1589 1424

Palmkernel oil . . 64 67 728 564 503

Coconut oil . . . . 13 12 144 111 112

Palmkern meal 89 78 562 426 419

Fish meal . . . . . . 150 221 1179 1016 1156

OIL WORLD No. 35, Vol. 62 Price Survey Aug 30, 2019

OILSEEDS, CRUDE OILS, FATS, MEALS & GRAINS : Lowest Representative Asking Prices for NearestForward Shipment, in Bulk (excl. import duty, if any, US-$/Tonne)

Aug29

2019 Change

Aug22

2019

Aug15

2019July2019

Jun2019

July2018

OctJuly

18/19

OctJuly

17/18Soybeans, U.S., cif Rotterdam 356 O -2.5% 365 Ag 366 Ag 374 371 378 371 410Soybean oil, US, fob Gulf 692 S -0.4% 695 S 707 Ag 669 667 674 676 755Soybean oil,U.S.,fob Decatur(a) 653 +0.3% 651 663 633 625 606 630 678Soybean oil,Dutch, fob ex-mill 766 N +0.1% 765 O 795 S 742 726 775 740 834Soybean oil, Brazil, fob 676 S -0.3% 678 S 685 S 643 634 673 654 743Soybean oil, Argentina, fob 664 S -1.6% 675 S 678 S 640 629 663 644 741Soy.meal,44/45%,Hmb,fob exmill 313 S -0.6% 315 S 314 Ag/S 322 337 382 332 386Soya pell, 48%, Brazil, fob 304 S 0.0% 304 S 301 S 318 332 378 327 374Soya pell, 47%, Arg, fob 302 S 0.0% 302 S 302 S 317 330 376 325 379Soya meal, 49%,Arg,cif Rott 347 S +0.6% 345 S 346 S 353 366 411 360 413Soya pell, 48%,Brazil,cif Rott 337 S 0.0% 337 S 336 S 349 362 408 356 406Soymeal Yell 48% Ex-Kandla fas 440 S +2.3% 430 Ag/S 425 Ag 441 445 434 417 433

Groundnuts, US Runners 40/50(b) 1350 S 0.0% 1350 S .. 1313 1325 1375 1296 1307Grnd'nt oil,any orig,cif Rott 1365 N/D 0.0% 1365 O/N 1365 O/N 1370 1374 1289 .. 1336

Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam 360 S/O 0.0% 360 S/O 360 S/O 370 380 401 384 407Sunseed, fob Black Sea 335 S/O 0.0% 335 S/O 332 S/O 341 350 368 354 380Sunoil, EU, fob N.W.Eur. ports 755 O -1.3% 765 O 765 O 772 738 774 710 786Sunoil, Arg., fob 727 S -1.8% 740 S 740 S 729 701 721 663 746Sunoil, fob Black Sea 729 O +0.6% 725 O 730 O 754 709 746 676 757Sunmeal, Ukraine, DAF 217 O 0.0% 217 O 230 Ag 226 228 265 219 219

Rapeseed,Europe,00,cif Hamburg 422 S -0.5% 424 S 420 Ag/S 417 417 422 419 423Rape oil,Dutch, fob ex-mill 901 O +0.7% 895 S/O 867 S/O 836 833 836 831 843Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb 204 S -3.8% 212 Ag/S 216 Ag 225 237 268 255 255Corn oil, U.S., fob Midwest 610 S 0.0% 610 S 610 Ag 598 609 646 603 699Corn oil, U.S., fob Gulf 670 S 0.0% 670 S 670 Ag/S 658 675 709 681 779Olive Oil,Spain,Extra Virgin(c) 2462 S +1.3% 2430 S 2468 Ag/S 2594 2528 3303 2860 3915

Palm oil crude, cif Rotterdam(d) 568 S 0.0% 568 S 540 S 497 503 590 516 668Palm oil RBD, Mal, fob 538 S -2.9% 554 S 542 S 494 502 570 518 640Palm oil crude, Indonesia, fob 515 S -1.0% 520 S 515 S 468 469 556 489 636Palm olein RBD, Mal, fob 543 S -2.7% 558 S 548 S 501 508 572 522 643Palm olein RBD, Mal, cif Rott 595 S -2.1% 608 S 598 S 549 557 621 574 697Palm stearin RBD, Mal fob 558 S -0.4% 560 S 540 S 481 473 572 499 646Palm stearin RBD, Mal,cif Rott 610 S 0.0% 610 S 590 S 528 521 622 550 700Palmkern oil,Mal/Indo,cif Rott 665 S/O +4.7% 635 S/O 605 S/O 554 551 872 670 1122Palmkern exp,21/23%,cif Rott 146 O +0.7% 145 O 146 S/O 145 151 176 145 163Copra, Phil/Indo, cif N.W.Eur 500 O 0.0% 500 S 475 Ag/S 444 430 614 484 819Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott 740 S/O 0.0% 740 S/O 710 S/O 665 643 917 724 1228Copra exp.pell. Phil, domestic .. .. 203 Ag 222 213 203 204 181

Butter, Germany, 25kg, min 82% 4028 +2.4% 3934 3960 4182 4371 6486 4837 6259Lard, EU, unrefined, 0.5%(e) .. 768 S 770 S 762 720 598 648 694Fish oil,any orig,cif N.W.Eur 1750 S 0.0% 1750 Ag/S 1750 Ag 1750 1769 1325 1627 1744Fish oil, Peru, fob 1825 S 0.0% 1825 Ag/S 1825 Ag 1831 1875 1250 1703 1856Fishmeal, 64/65%, Bremen fca 1395 S -1.8% 1420 Ag/S 1450 Ag 1496 1521 1495 1490 1510Fishmeal, Peru FAQ, fob 1180 S 0.0% 1180 Ag/S 1290 Ag 1380 1378 1350 1347 1458Fishmeal Peru fob Super Prime 1380 S 0.0% 1380 Ag/S 1490 Ag 1595 1583 1616 1576 1709

Linseed, Russia, cif N.W.Eur 440 S/O 0.0% 440 S/O 442 S/O 453 459 440 451 438Lin oil,any orig,ex-tank Rott 850 S 0.0% 850 S 852 Ag/S 863 848 866 831 833Lin exp,min.41% profat,fot Bel 360 S 0.0% 360 S 360 Ag/S 369 364 353 367 376Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam 1890 S +0.5% 1880 Ag/S 1900 Ag 1950 1898 1584 1853 1619Tung oil,S.America,ex-tank Rot .. 5005 Ag/S 5025 Ag 5050 5043 5035 4946 4926Tallow,US,bleach.fancy,cif Rot .. 825 Ag/S 845 Ag 826 810 735 758 751Tallow, Edible, US, fob Gulf 845 S 0.0% 845 Ag/S 845 Ag 806 795 740 776 752Wheat,U.S.,No.2,SRW, fob Gulf 206 S +1.0% 204 S 205 S 219 231 215 217 203Corn,U.S.,No.3,Yellow,fob Gulf 164 O -0.6% 165 O 164 S 196 210 167 178 171

(a)Prompt. (b)Shelled basis; cif Rotterdam. (c)Domestic, fob ex-mill, max. 0.8% ffa. (d)5% ffa, Malaysian/ Indonesian origin. (e)Packers'lard ex-mill.

Hamburg Market Prices - On August 29, 2019 prices closed in EURO per tonne:Soya meal: fob ex-mill: Aug/Oct 283a, Nov/Jan 286a,Feb/Apr 288a.

Soybean Crush Conversions in Euro per tonne: First position +34 as of Aug 29 and +26 as of Aug 22.

Soya oil, crude: fob ex-mill: Oct 710a, Nov 700a, Dec 695a,Jan 690a.

Rapeseed Crush Conversions in Euro per tonne: unquoted

Rape meal: fob ex-mill: Aug/Sept 184a, Oct 186a, Nov/Jan196a. Rape oil, refined: Aug/Sept 894a, Oct 896a, Nov/Jan 888a.

Exchange Rate on Aug 29, 2019: 1 EUR = US-$ 1.1072and Aug 22, 2019: 1 EUR = US-$ 1.1083.Monthly averages: 1 EUR = US-$: July 2019: 1.1218, June2019: 1.1293.