Historical Analysis WG

Report to TASNovember 28, 2007

Overview

1. OATI Database Review

2. 2006 Path Flow Report – Approval Item

3. Future Archiving of Commercial Data

I. OATI Database Review

• OATI “commercial” Database– Developed under a Contract with US DOE

– Database time period - 2004-05

– Commercial Data for 28 major WECC paths

– Hourly directional ATC, Schedules, OTC, CBM/TRM

– Source - POR POD data from western OASIS sites• WestTrans, BPA, CAISO, PacifiCorp

– Appears to be much missing data in database

Review Results

• Requested TPs review the OATI database– Sent to 22 TPs to review their data– Only 13 have responded – now 6 weeks past due date– Only 7 have actually reviewed the data and provided

comments (BPA, SRP, CAISO, PAC, El Paso, WALC, Platte River)

– 4 of the 13 have indicated they cannot review the database– Conclusion: Appears the OATI database will have limited

usefulness– Next Step: identify those WECC paths with sufficient

data to do some analysis to check analysis methodology

II. 2006 Path Flow Report

• Requesting TAS approval of the report• Report presents the analysis performed in

2006 as part of the first US DOE congestion study, thru the WCATF

• Uses actual historical hourly MW flows on all major paths; no ATC or Schedule data

• Summary of analysis was submitted to US DOE in May 2006

Contents of path flow report

• Analyzes 24 WECC paths - - 1998 thru 2005• For each path - - presents a bar chart showing

seasonal U75 from 1998 thru 2005 • For each path - - presents seasonal frequency

distribution plot for 2004 and 2005• Includes charts summarizing U75 and U90 for all

24 paths• Presents trend analysis charts - - 1998 thru 2005• See example charts in following slides

BUCKLEY

SUNDANCE

FT. PECK

PEACE CANYON

MICA

VANCOUVER

SEATTLE

PRINCE RUPERT

AREA

AREA

COLSTRIP

BOISE

PORTLANDAREA

MALIN

TABLE MTN

ROUND MTN

SALT LAKECITY AREA

MEXICO

EL PASOAREA

DEVERSLUGO

SAN FRANCISCO

MIDPOINT

AREA

LOS ANGELESAREA

ALBUQUERQUEAREA

NAVAJO

DENVERAREA

MOJAVE

HOOVER

PHOENIXAREA

LANGDON

HOT SPRINGS

HELLSCANYON

CHIEF JOSEPH

BURNS

PINTO

FOURCORNERS

SHASTA

LANGDON

CANADA

UNITED STATES

6665

14

8

30

15

49

31

19

22

34

47

3

35

18

1720

23

26

36

45

5051 4

8

48

Transmission Paths

1

Path RankingMaximum Seasonal Values from 1999 through 2005

% of Time Path Actual Flow exceeds 75% of Path OTC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19 50 22 47 30 36 3 8 48 35 17 66 65 15 31 1 26 45 49 18 20 34 51 14

WECC Path Number

% T

ime

Pat

h F

low

Exc

eed

s 75

% o

f O

TC

W

Sp

Su

Represents the highest Seasonal Loading for each Path, from 1999 thru 2005

50% of Time

25% of Time

Bridger West

Cholla - Pinnacle Pk

SW of 4C

S. New Mex.

TOT 1A (CO to Utah)

TOT 3 (WY to CO)

Montana to Northwest - Path 8Actual Flows

Historical % of Time Seasonal Flow exceed 75% of Path OTC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

W98-99

W00-01

W01-02

W04-05

AveW

Spr99

Spr01

Spr02

Spr04

Spr05

AveSp

Su 99 Su 00 Su 01 Su 04 Su 05 AveSum

Season

% T

ime

Flo

w E

xcee

ds

75%

OT

C

W 98-99

W 00-01

W 01-02

W 04-05

Ave W

Spr 99

Spr 01

Spr 02

Spr 04

Spr 05

Ave Sp

Su 99

Su 00

Su 01

Su 04

Su 05

Ave Sum

Montana to NW - Path 8Actual Flows - MWs

Spring 2004 thru Summer 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Path Flow - Per Unit of OTC

% T

ime

> P

ath

Flo

w l

evel

All Seasons

Sum 2005

W 04-05

Spr 05

Sum 2004

Spr 2004

OTC = 2200 MW EtoW

Path Utilization Trend - Winter Season1998 through 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

W98-99 W00-01 W01-02 W04-05 W98-99 W00-01 W01-02 W04-05

Season

Nu

mb

er o

f Pat

hs

>75%

of p

ath

OT

C

>25% of time

>50% of time

III. Future Archiving of Commercial Data

• Formed a new Subgroup to develop a future data collection process

• Membership – – Includes representative of the HAWG and each SPG (NTTG, CG,

CAISO, SWAT, CCPG)

• Options under consideration– Use WECC staff resources to integrate data gathering and

archiving process with rebuilding of WECC web site– Obtain services from a database vendor– The Vendor option would help address the workload problem we

are experiencing with database development. Need to determine the cost.

Vendor Option - ZE Group• Webcast presentation by ZE group on November 20• ZE currently gathers over 400 data points accessible

from the web, from OASIS sites, TP sites, etc.• Can do the conversion of POR POD OASIS data to

WECC path data• Can do database computations (statistical

calculations, graphic presentations, chronological plots, seasonal and peak and off peak analysis, etc.)

QUESTIONS ???