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Historical contingency and structural determinations
• November’s riots are link – to the death of the two adolescents running away from
the police,– To a political context defined by the words said by Mr
Sarkozy as Minister of Interior: ‘Scum’ ‘Karcher’ (=water pressurize hose)
– But than is not the whole story: there were places where riots where more likely to happen and places where they where unlikely
• To deal with the last aspect, we need indicators of the riots intensity / extension. I have taken two indicators :– Number of days fight between youngsters and the police– Number of cars burned per 100 000 inhabitants
Absolute number of cars burned by administrative regions:
1st week; 2nd week ; 3rd week.
Paris region : cities involved in the riots’wave number of days: white no riot ; dark blue more than a
week
% of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants (more than 25 000 in Paris region) experiencing riots
according to the presence of sentitive areas
Riots
Cities with a sensitive urban
area (monitored)
Cities without a sensitive urban
area
yes 71.5% 59.3%
no
N=
28.5%
151
40.7%
60
% of cities experiencing riots according to the proportion of large families in their
sensitive districts
% households with 6 people or more 0-3 % 4-7% 8-12% 12% or
more% of cities experiencing riots
N=
33.9%
59
62.5%
80
83.3%
54
100%
18
An urban renovation program has been launched in august 2003 by the National Agency for Urban
Renovation (ANRU)
(0.5 billions €, previouly money was split between the ministry of Housing and the ministry of the City (DIV))
• This program involve, during the period 2004-2007:renovation : 400000 housingsdestruction/rebuilding : 250 000 housings
Intention: Reduce the density of housing, allow a wider diversity of occupation statuses (owner occupant, tenants), enforce the social mixity
Short term consequences : Expulsions and threats of expulsion. The families which are the less mobile and who have only local connections are more sensitive. Moreover, often the social work supposed to prepare people has not been properly done.
% of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants experiencing riots according to urban renewal
convention (destruction /rebuilding/rehabilitation)
Riots
No renewal convention signed
Renewal convention signed
yes 57.5% 80.0%
no
N=
42.5%
161
20.0%
50
Linear correlations between indexes of riots’ intensity and unemployment (*) in French cities above 50 000 inhabitants
Segregation indexes : comparison between two cities, A & B, composed of a sensitive area and a non-sensitive area of
different size
Riots’intensity according to the segregation index in the citiesD
ura
tion
:da
ys
Segregation: dissimilarity0 .1 .2 .3 .4
0
5
10
acheres
alfortvillangersannecy
antibes
antony
argenteuil asnieres
aubervilli
aulnaysous
bagneux
bagnolet
bassens
bethunebezons
blancmesni
bobigny
boisd'arcy
bondy
bordeauxboulognebi
brétigny
canne-gras
carrieress
cergychampigny
chatillon
chatou
chelles
cherbourgchoisylero
clamartcleon
clichysein
clichysous
conflansst
corbeil
courbevoie créteil
dijon
drancyelancourt
elbeuf
epinaysenaepinaysurs
evreux(mad
evry
fontenaysb
franconvilfresnes
gargeslesggenevillie
grigny
guyancourt
hagondange
hem
houillesissylesmou
kremlinbiclacourneuv
laricamari
latourdupi
lechesnay
lens
leperreux
lesmureaux
levaloispe
lille(moye
livrygargaloos
lormont-ce
lyon
maisonsalfmalakoff
manteslajo
marseille(
massy(gden
maubeuge
meaux
metz(borny
meudon
miribel(ai
montfermei
montigny-b
montreuil
montrouge
nancy(Chamnanterre
neuillysur
neuillysur
nice
noisylegra
noisylesecormesson
pantin
parispierrefitt
plaisir
poitiers
puteaux
rennes
romainvill
rosnysousb
roubaix
rueilmalma
saintdenis
saintouen sarcelles
sartrouvil
savigny
sevran
stains
stcloud
stetienne(
stgermaine
stmaur
strasbourg
suresnes
sète
sèvres
thiaisthionville
toulouse(b
tourcoing
tours
trappes
tremblayen
valencienn
versailles
vigneux(la
villejuif
villemombl
villeneuve
villepinte
villiersle
villierssuvincennes vitry
watrelooswattignies
% cities experiencing riots in accordance with their segregation index
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0,01 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4
segregation index
Ordered logistic regression
Number of obs (weighted) = 284; Wald chi2(4) = 77.53Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ; Log pseudolikelihood = -268.83522 Pseudo R2 = 0.2012
Riots 2005 in Seine St Denis : Observed duration and estimated duration
November's riots: 0=no riot,1=one day, 2=2-7 days, 3=more than 7 days
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
aubervilliers
aulnaysousbois
bagnolet
blancmesnil
bobignybondy
clichysousbois
drancy
epinaysurseine
lacourneuvelivrygarganmontfermeilmontreuil
neuillysurmarnenoisylegrand
noisylesec
pantin
pierrefitteromainville
rosnysousbois
saintdenissaintouensevranstains
tremblayenfrance
villemomblevillepinte
numbers of days observed
numbers of days :estimated
Politics and riots
• There is a direct correlation between the vote in favor of extreme right parties (in 2002) and the presence of riots (Pearson coef.= 0.4).
• In my view, to a certain extent, riots on onne side and extreme rigth votes –an expression of political protest /alienation – are two aspects of these poor districts’ remoteness from « civic life ».
Political and economic integration versus cultural integration
Economic and political participation