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Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon. Country-base historical inventory of Fossil fuel combustion constructed from UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statistics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Historical Emission of Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Anthropogenic Black
CarbonCarbonCountry-base historical inventory ofCountry-base historical inventory ofFossil fuel combustionFossil fuel combustion constructed from UN Energy constructed from UN Energy
Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International HistoriStatistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statisticscal Statistics
Agricultural waste burningAgricultural waste burning constructed from FAOS constructed from FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, International HistorTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, International Historical Statisticsical Statistics
Fuelwood consumptionFuelwood consumption constructed from FAOSTA constructed from FAOSTAT and a few population dataT and a few population data
Forest fireForest fire of GEIA data scaled by historical populati of GEIA data scaled by historical population numberson numbers
Gridded into 0.5Gridded into 0.5oo x 0.5 x 0.5oo by population by population
Global & Annual Mean SATGlobal & Annual Mean SAT
FULLFULL
ANTHANTH
NTRLNTRL
CONTCONT
Y2K-FIXY2K-FIX
Global & Annual Mean SATGlobal & Annual Mean SAT
Global & Annual Mean Precip.Global & Annual Mean Precip.
FULLFULL
ANTHANTH NTRLNTRL
CONTCONT
マル中 マル中 IPCC IPCC 対応実験計画 対応実験計画 (案)(案) 88 月月55 月月 66 月月 77 月月
CTLCTL
20C-0120C-01
Y2KY2K
A2-01A2-01
A1B-01A1B-01
Y2100A1BY2100A1B
B1-01B1-01
Y2100B1Y2100B1CO2incr.-01CO2incr.-01
2xCO22xCO2
4xCO24xCO2
20C-0220C-02 20C-0320C-03
CO2incr.-03CO2incr.-03
N20C-01N20C-01
A20C-01A20C-01
Low-Sens.
High-Sens.CTLCTL
20C20C N20CN20C
A20CA20C
CTL+WFCO2CTL+WFCO2
CO2+WFCTLCO2+WFCTL
N20C-02N20C-02
A20C-02A20C-02A2-02A2-02
A1B-02A1B-02
B1-02B1-02
CO2incr.-02CO2incr.-02
A2-03A2-03
A1B-03A1B-03
B1-03B1-03
N20C-03N20C-03
A20C-03A20C-03
CO2incr.CO2incr.
まとめまとめ マル中結合モデルによる本実験開始 コントロールはほとんどドリフトしていない
わずかな昇温ドリフトは避けられない見通し 結果は概ね良好 (低感度版)
CO2 倍増時の地上気温上昇は 2.07K 20 世紀気候再現実験は観測と非常によく一致
基本的には ES L 系 2 ノード 6 本の体制を継続 IPCC には 3 メンバのアンサンブルを提出(一部を除
く) 科学的に興味深い実験をどんどん実行
出力データ転送(搬送)のインフラ整備が急務 FTP には限界あり (最大で 240GB/ 日) MDPS がどの程度バッファとして使えるかがカギ